MLB Bets 2026-07-28

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	457W–239L–0P	66%	-16.75 u	Last 14 days • 696 settled
Grade A	22W–21L–0P	51%	-3.20 u
Grade B	435W–218L–0P	67%	-13.55 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2503W–1697L–8P	60%	-152.04 u	All-time • 4208 settled
Grade A	231W–174L–0P	57%	-0.60 u
Grade B	2272W–1523L–8P	60%	-151.44 u

59 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Burleson	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter H+R+RBI	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Hits	Caleb Durbin	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-363	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Casey Schmitt	0.5	-554	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Drew Gilbert	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Heliot Ramos	0.5	-353	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-201	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-271	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-361	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Mike Trout	0.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Nelson Velazquez	0.5	-273	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Yordan Alvarez	0.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	K Prop	Jack Perkins	4.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-110	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Pitcher Earned Run	David Peterson	2.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Pitcher Earned Run	Payton Tolle	2.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Pitcher Earned Run	Walbert Urena	2.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Pitcher Hits Allow	Brandon Sproat	5.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jack Perkins	5.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Pitcher Hits Allow	Payton Tolle	5.5	-116	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Sproat	1.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Pitcher Walks	David Peterson	1.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Pitcher Walks	Matthew Liberatore	1.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Mahle	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Run Line	San Francisco Giants	+1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	K Prop	Dean Kremer	4.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	K Prop	Jake Bennett	3.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	K Prop	Shane Bieber	3.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Total	Over	8.0	-114	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-27	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	7.5	110	-	LOSS	-1.000	Zack Wheeler: 6.0 (line 7.5)
2026-07-27	Batter H+R+RBI	Bryan Reynolds	1.5	-133	-	WIN	+0.752	Bryan Reynolds: 2.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	468	56%	-5.97u	62	53%	-3.24u	221	58%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	412	58%	+10.45u	55	49%	-7.68u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	145	55%	-1.20u	7	71%	+1.88u	42	62%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	959	74%	-5.42u	332	77%	+3.64u	6	83%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	429	57%	-14.60u	100	49%	-17.08u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	318	59%	-14.57u	78	60%	-1.85u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	42	76%	+3.08u	5	60%	-0.82u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	32	53%	-0.34u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	110	46%	-13.67u	7	57%	-0.13u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	54	41%	-8.78u	4	75%	+1.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	8	50%	-1.05u	7	57%	-0.05u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	521	52%	-49.76u	37	68%	+6.93u	77	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 21 total candidate(s); season N 468, 14d N 62	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 412, 14d N 55	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 145, 14d N 7	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 17 total candidate(s); season N 42, 14d N 5	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 73 total candidate(s); season N 32, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 110, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 54, 14d N 4	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 8, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 521, 14d N 37	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 759 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 320 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 220 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 738 pitcher(s), 3255 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 564 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1599 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 764 market side(s) checked \| 764 opening snapshot(s) created \| 6 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹ	PARTIAL	Non-blocking	F5: 12 game(s) fetched \| 0 with ML odds \| 12 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 16 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 608 \| batter bats 397 \| batter hand splits 150 \| pitcher HR splits 59 \| batter pitch-type 564 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 16 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds	1:41 PM	+139	-168	+1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	-103	-117	-1.5 (+155)	+1.5 (-189)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-164)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-107	-113	-1.5 (+154)	+1.5 (-187)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	+149	-181	+1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-172)	-1.5 (+142)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds	7:10 PM	-135	+112	-1.5 (+112)	+1.5 (-135)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	-162	+134	-1.5 (+113)	+1.5 (-136)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-135	+112	-1.5 (+124)	+1.5 (-149)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	+133	-160	+1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-115	-105	-1.5 (+149)	+1.5 (-181)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-112	-108	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+103)	+1.5 (-125)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+153	-187	+1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-144	+119	-1.5 (+123)	+1.5 (-149)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+157	-192	+1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 6 Grade B | 152 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (3 play(s))

K Prop - Shane Bieber Over

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 4

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -146Market line: majority 4.5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | exactOwn-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg N/A

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -122Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -122 | exactOwn-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (6 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 3.5 (-150) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-150	+118	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	-
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 50.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.76K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jake Bennett: K/9 6.5, proj 5.3K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 28.2%, L7 20.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150 -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.76K, diff 50.1%, books 100%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Shane Bieber Over 3.5 (-170) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 4 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-170	+132	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	4.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 31.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.09K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.4% / under 40.6%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); DK LOWER delta -1.00
Shane Bieber: K/9 7.4, proj 4.6K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.399 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Curveball: 37.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .222
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 20.3%, L7 20.0%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.8%/7 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Washington Nationals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.67 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -170, pitch-type boost on 18% usage pitch, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 4.5 (-118) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	-
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 24.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.10K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dean Kremer: K/9 8.7, proj 5.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.5% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Split-Finger (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 47.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 107 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .306 | OPS .930
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 107 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 22.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.1%, BVP 16.8%/107 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.67 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 4/6 over 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, active roster BVP K% 16.8% over 107 PA -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-114) edge 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 8 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -114

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 8 books | 8.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 8 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-115	-	-
BetOnline	8	-115	-	-
BetRivers	8	-109	-	Recommended
BetUS	8	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-115	-	-
DK	8	-114	-	Selected
LowVig	8	-113	-	-
MyBookie	8	-118	-	-
FanDuel	8.5	+100	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.9 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Anthony Kay (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Gerrit Cole (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Guaranteed Rate Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.9
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Stats within normal range

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-146) edge 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-146	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.3 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Home SP TBD
Gavin Williams xFIP 2.99
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 50% (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: run factor 1.00
Away SP: Gavin Williams (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — New York Mets +1.5 1.5 (-136) edge 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -136

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -127 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.6 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+8.87/$100
✓ Cover prob 62.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 7.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 3 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -136 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Christian Scott (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 96)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Chris Sale elite xFIP (3.04)

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -1.201u

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (152 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 18 play(s) (B 3 | C 15)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 5.5 (+106) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 39.1% vs 17% min; cushion +2.15K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Troy Melton: K/9 9.5, proj 7.7K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 36.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .056 | OPS .161
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.1%, L7 22.6%, season 24.1%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +9.1 ppts (recent 32.4% vs season 23.3%, proj adj +4.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 4.5 (+106) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.18K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Cade Cavalli: K/9 11.1, proj 5.7K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 25.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.9%, L7 20.6%, season 19.6%, active roster 18.4%/6 hitters (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.7%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +9.9 ppts (recent 36.5% vs season 26.6%, proj adj +5.0%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.8% (1 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 5.5 (+109) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+109	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 25.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.42K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Peter Lambert: K/9 8.9, proj 6.9K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 36.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 33 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .726
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.5%, L7 22.4%, season 25.0%, active roster 25.5%/6 hitters, BVP 30.3%/33 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 25.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 4.5 (-150) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	+117	-150	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.98K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Seth Lugo: K/9 7.6, proj 3.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.5% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Cutter (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Cutter: 17.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 99 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .283 | OPS .801
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 99 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.8%, L7 22.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.2%/99 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (+107) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-136	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 13.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.45K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.4% / under 45.6%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 6.3, proj 3.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.2% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 27.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 78 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .324 | OPS .906
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 22.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 12.8%/78 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.55
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Anthony Kay Under 4.5 (+119) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +119

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-152	+119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-122	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.9% / under 43.1%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.3, proj 4.1K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 14.0% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 21 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .210 | OPS .654
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 25.5%, L7 28.3%, season 24.3%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.81
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 100 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Slade Cecconi Under 4.5 (-151) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.40K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Slade Cecconi: K/9 6.8, proj 4.1K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.3% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Curveball: 37.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Slade Cecconi: 49 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .699
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 23.2%, L7 23.1%, season 24.8%, BVP 22.4%/49 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.10
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gage Jump Under 5.5 (-130) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gage Jump: K/9 10.2, proj 5.0K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Slider (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 17.7%, L7 23.8%, season 21.9%, active roster 21.5%/6 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Boston Red Sox 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.55
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 (+107) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 6.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 6.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-110	-120	-
DK	6.5	+107	-137	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+102	-130	-
Fanatics	6.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 8.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.55K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gerrit Cole: K/9 10.1, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 22.4% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Slider (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 69 PA | K% 31.9% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .539
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 69 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.2%, L7 20.7%, season 23.6%, BVP 31.9%/69 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
K% trend: support +5.2 ppts (recent 31.1% vs season 25.9%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Griffin Jax Over 5.5 (-118) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.44K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Griffin Jax: K/9 9.3, proj 5.9K over 5.0 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 24.2% | xwOBA 0.343 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 28 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .130 | OPS .520
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.6%, L7 24.4%, season 22.4%, active roster 20.4%/6 hitters, BVP 14.3%/28 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 4/27 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 3.04
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +2.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Christian Scott Over 5.5 (-101) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+116	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Christian Scott: K/9 11.4, proj 5.9K over 4.4 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 37 PA | K% 40.5% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .156 | OPS .614
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.9%, L7 23.3%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters, BVP 40.5%/37 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.57
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 33.3% vs season 28.8%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chris Sale Over 7.5 (+110) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+130	-170	-
DK	7.5	+110	-140	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+132	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.1K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 7.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.56K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Chris Sale: K/9 11.1, proj 8.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.277 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 120 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .952
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 120 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.2%, L7 27.3%, season 22.3%, active roster 20.5%/6 hitters, BVP 20.0%/120 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 66%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 27.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 7.05
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael King Under 5.5 (-135) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+106	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.34K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael King: K/9 8.0, proj 5.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 41 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .529
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.6%, L7 22.5%, season 22.8%, active roster 21.6%/8 hitters, BVP 14.6%/41 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reid Detmers Under 6.5 (-142) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	6.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.22K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reid Detmers: K/9 10.6, proj 6.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 28.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 123 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .738
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 123 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.2%, L7 21.1%, season 21.5%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 21.9%/123 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.48
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Aaron Nola Under 5.5 (-153) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+120	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+126	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.18K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Aaron Nola: K/9 9.5, proj 5.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 49 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .277 | OPS .732
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 17.3%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 16.3%/49 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Taj Bradley Under 6.5 (-115) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	6.5	-110	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+102	-130	-
Fanatics	6.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.09K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.5% / under 50.5%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Taj Bradley: K/9 10.4, proj 6.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 46 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .422
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.8%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.9%/6 hitters, BVP 19.6%/46 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.45
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5
K% trend: support +4.1 ppts (recent 30.9% vs season 26.8%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 (+108) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.06K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 7.2, proj 5.6K over 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 320 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .309 | OPS .822
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 320 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.1%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, active roster 23.4%/8 hitters, BVP 17.8%/320 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 74%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 26.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chase Burns Under 6.5 (-148) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 0.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.03K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Chase Burns: K/9 10.1, proj 6.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.0 outs/5.3 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.2% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Slider: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .000 | OPS .125
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 16.9%, L7 19.0%, season 22.4% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/19 (32%) | Season 6/19 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.53
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 8 play(s) (B 1 | C 7)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Gerrit Cole Over 17.5 (-107) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-115	-115	-
DK	17.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 17.564 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.82 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 48.4% / under 51.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 69 PA | K% 31.9% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .539
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.2%, L7 20.7%, season 23.6%, BVP 31.9%/69 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.9%, L7 9.6%, season 8.9%, BVP 5.8%/69 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 (-107) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	18.5	-114	-117	-
DK	18.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	18.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.557 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.19 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 320 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .309 | OPS .822
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.1%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 17.8%/320 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.0%, L7 6.6%, season 7.8%, BVP 7.8%/320 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.50 | Season Avg 19.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Taj Bradley Over 17.5 (-173) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	17.5	-182	+135	-
DK	17.5	-173	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.833 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.95 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 46 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .422
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.8%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 19.6%/46 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.9%, L7 6.6%, season 8.3%, BVP 4.3%/46 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Seth Lugo Under 17.5 (-108) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 17.5 -108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-124	-108	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.267 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.46 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 99 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .283 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.8%, L7 22.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.2%/99 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 7.5%, L7 8.5%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.1%/99 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 16.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael King Under 17.5 (+115) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-162	+122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-152	+115	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.313 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.50 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 41 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.6%, L7 22.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 14.6%/41 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.9%, L7 7.0%, season 8.2%, BVP 4.9%/41 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Peter Lambert Under 17.5 (+116) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-150	+113	-
DK	17.5	-154	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.866 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.49 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 33 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .726
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.5%, L7 22.4%, season 25.0%, BVP 30.3%/33 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.8%, L7 9.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.1%/33 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Under 17.5 (-106) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-132	-102	-
DK	17.5	-125	-106	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.976 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.67 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 123 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .738
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.2%, L7 21.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.9%/123 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.1%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 8.1%/123 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Under 17.5 (-133) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	17.5	-105	-127	-
DK	17.5	+100	-133	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.400000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.98 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .056 | OPS .161
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.1%, L7 22.6%, season 24.1%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 12.4%, L7 9.7%, season 10.2%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Run Line — 3 play(s) (B 1 | C 2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Cleveland Guardians +1.5 1.5 (-149) edge 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Cleveland Guardians 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -149

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Cleveland Guardians 1.5 -140 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+22.04/$100
✓ Cover prob 73.0% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.9% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -149 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Away SP: Gavin Williams (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 0.97
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Weather: run factor 1.00
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Gavin Williams elite xFIP (2.99)
Line movement: against this side (line 1.5->-1.5, odds -149->+112)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 50% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: selected book disagrees | split consensus 50% (8 books) — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-149) edge 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie San Francisco Giants 1.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -149

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: MyBookie San Francisco Giants 1.5 -142 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Reiver Sanmartin (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+18.09/$100
✓ Cover prob 70.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 13.5% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -149 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Landen Roupp (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Logan Henderson (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 14 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Logan Henderson small sample (38 IP) — stats 47% actual / 53% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 44% (9 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Texas Rangers +1.5 1.5 (-136) edge 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Texas Rangers 1.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -136

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Texas Rangers 1.5 -133 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model run margin: +0.6 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+8.33/$100
✓ Cover prob 62.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 7.3% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 4 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -136 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Griffin Jax (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 54%, bullpen 46%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 38% (8 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Batter Hits — 17 play(s) (C 17)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Curtis Mead Under 1.5 (-253) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.82 (AVG 0.253)
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.350 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/31 (36%) | L5 3/15 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/88 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/46 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Hits: 34/42 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter Hits: 72/88 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.82

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-200) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trevor Larnach Under 1.5 (-241) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -241

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Paul Goldschmidt Under 1.5 (-255) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+188	-255	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Sal Stewart Under 1.5 (-217) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -217 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -217

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -217 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.253)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.240 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/37 (22%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/104 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/50 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 79/104 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kody Clemens Under 1.5 (-257) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.89 (AVG 0.243)
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.379 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/92 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/44 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 37/48 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter Hits: 69/92 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-264) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -264 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -264 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.264)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.356 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 38/51 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 74/102 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Willson Contreras Under 1.5 (-236) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.364 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/30 (30%) | L5 2/13 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 35/46 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 73/98 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 (-248) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.273)
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.308 (13 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/34 (38%) | L5 5/15 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/98 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 69/98 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-262) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.278)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.271 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/41 (27%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/101 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 35/47 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 74/101 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-238) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.283)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/105 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 76/105 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-243) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.296)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.239 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/104 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 72/104 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-243) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.296)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/35 (46%) | L5 7/16 (44%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/99 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 66/99 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-264) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -264 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -264 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.16 (AVG 0.321)
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.556 (40 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 22 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .785
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 22 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/35 (37%) | L5 4/16 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter Hits: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 69/106 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-240) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.277)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.229 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 2/20 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter Hits: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 75/105 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-202) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+151	-202	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+145	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.303)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/44 (18%) | L5 3/21 (14%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/101 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 69/101 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-242) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -242 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -242

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -242 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.32 (AVG 0.331)
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.217 (37 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter Hits: 29/49 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 61/103 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 73 play(s) (C 73)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (-109) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/107 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 55/107 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.14

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-103) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.617 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/81 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/40 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter TB: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 40/81 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+118) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+118	-158	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/103 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +2.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter TB: 47/103 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+121) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.369 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 48/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+111) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.508 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/99 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 38/99 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 22 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .785
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 22 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/106 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 51/106 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-117) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/105 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 49/105 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+101) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.325 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/85 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/40 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 42/85 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+115) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.429 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 80.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter TB: 55/106 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-116) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.489 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/92 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 38/92 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-120) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.528 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/98 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 44/98 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+117) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.662 (24 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/83 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter TB: 14/40 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 35/83 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+126) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.500 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.200 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 46/100 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+118) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.487 (37 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/105 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 40/105 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-107) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.287 (13 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 42/98 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+132) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.431 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/98 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 44/98 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+116) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.704 (19 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 29/76 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 29/76 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-111) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.320 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/104 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 41/104 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-186) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/91 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/45 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 68/91 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+126) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.717 (25 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 36/102 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/51 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 36/102 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-106) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/101 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 45/101 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-191) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+142	-191	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.177 (59 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/98 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 71/98 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-154) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/98 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 64/98 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+116) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.500 (13 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/103 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 41/103 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-172) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.131 (10 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/99 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 67/99 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+113) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/103 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/54 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 39/103 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+113) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (70 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/104 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 41/104 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-164) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 62/99 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+107) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.732 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+105) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.346 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+107) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.549 (61 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/107 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 45/107 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-161) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.479 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 65/102 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-168) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.131 (13 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 13 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.035
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 70/106 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+106) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.242 (27 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .883
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (-101) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.424 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/88 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 13/42 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 33/88 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+128) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.541 (42 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/89 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 20/41 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 42/89 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+106) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-198) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -193 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -193 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.484 (71 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 70/106 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+116) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.485 (35 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/88 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/43 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 33/88 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+127) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+134) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Williamson Over 1.5 (+150) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-186) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.317 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/101 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 59/101 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (+143) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 (+133) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+102) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.328 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/95 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/95 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+121) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Tena Over 1.5 (+137) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+147) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+154) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+154	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (-105) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+104) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-167) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.344 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/49 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 34/50 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/99 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+102) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jahmai Jones Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+133) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+151) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+131) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+137) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+116) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+141) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.301 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/104 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/104 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+112) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.366 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/98 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 37/98 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.256 (61 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/104 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 42/104 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-170) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/56 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 66/106 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Under 1.5 (-172) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (35 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/94 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/42 under 1.5 (48%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 52/94 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+132) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.429 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/76 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 32/76 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+114) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-122) edge 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5	-125	-105	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-122	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 4.01
Jake Bennett xFIP 3.92
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
Away SP: Jake Bennett (LHP)

▸ NRFI — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-102) edge 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Gavin Williams: xFIP 2.99, K% 33.2%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.312, whiff% 29.6% | 1st inn full (88 PA): xwOBA 0.288, K% 36.4%, BB% 11.4%, whiff% 36.3%
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 98)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 94)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.00 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.58
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
NRFI rate: Gavin Williams: 76% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.239 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +13.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -13.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-142) edge 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -142

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Landen Roupp: xFIP 3.62, K% 23.1%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.285, whiff% 24.1% | 1st inn full (78 PA): xwOBA 0.238, K% 30.8%, BB% 10.3%, whiff% 24.3%
Logan Henderson: xFIP 3.61, K% 28.4%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.264, whiff% 27.7% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.247, K% 46.7%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 34.0%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.72 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.11
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Landen Roupp: 80% (20 starts) | Logan Henderson: 88% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 19-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.332 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.324 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +11.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge -2.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-148) edge 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -148

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Christian Scott: xFIP 3.93, K% 29.5%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.309, whiff% 26.0% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.274, K% 32.8%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 23.6%
Chris Sale: xFIP 3.04, K% 30.5%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.277, whiff% 30.7% | 1st inn full (74 PA): xwOBA 0.257, K% 32.4%, BB% 2.7%, whiff% 26.5%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 96)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.94
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Christian Scott: 71% (14 starts) | Chris Sale: 90% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +10.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge -1.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-110) edge 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -110

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Griffin Jax: xFIP 3.60, K% 25.4%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.343, whiff% 30.7% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 33.9%, BB% 6.5%, whiff% 32.5%
Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 102)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.85
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Griffin Jax: 75% (16 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.302 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -110 | implied 52.4% | model edge +8.3%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -8.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-113) edge 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Sandy Alcantara: xFIP 4.19, K% 19.3%, BB% 6.4%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.290, K% 24.4%, BB% 3.3%, whiff% 20.6%
Aaron Nola: xFIP 3.98, K% 24.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.249, K% 26.2%, BB% 2.4%, whiff% 26.4%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 102)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.53 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.16
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Sandy Alcantara: 82% (22 starts) | Aaron Nola: 76% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 57-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 31-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.321 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.288 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +6.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +2.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.2 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.2 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+108) edge 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +108

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Gage Jump: xFIP 4.01, K% 24.1%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 24.5% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 23.8%, BB% 2.4%, whiff% 18.0%
Jake Bennett: xFIP 3.92, K% 18.3%, BB% 5.1%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 23.2% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.198, K% 26.5%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 23.2%
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.07 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.85
NRFI rate: Gage Jump: 82% (11 starts) | Jake Bennett: 100% (10 starts)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.260 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +108 | implied 48.1% | model edge +5.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -138 | implied 58.0% | model edge +3.1%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge -0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Reid Detmers: xFIP 3.67, K% 28.0%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 29.0% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 27.8%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 23.9%
Peter Lambert: xFIP 4.49, K% 23.8%, BB% 9.4%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 23.9%, BB% 7.0%, whiff% 24.7%
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.03 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
Park: Angel Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Reid Detmers: 76% (21 starts) | Peter Lambert: 82% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 57-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.344 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.253 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -0.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +9.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge -6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Michael King: xFIP 4.50, K% 21.2%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 25.2% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.207, K% 22.4%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 23.6%
Michael Lorenzen: xFIP 4.70, K% 14.4%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.360, whiff% 19.2% | 1st inn full (98 PA): xwOBA 0.339, K% 22.4%, BB% 6.1%, whiff% 21.1%
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 96)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 103)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.88
Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
NRFI rate: Michael King: 86% (21 starts) | Michael Lorenzen: 62% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 65-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.250 vs SP's top pitch) | San Diego Padres struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -6.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +15.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-118) edge -8.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.90, K% 17.8%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.351, whiff% 24.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 22.1%, BB% 3.5%, whiff% 24.3%
Gerrit Cole: xFIP 3.82, K% 27.2%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.261, K% 30.0%, BB% 5.0%, whiff% 21.4%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.97
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
Weather: Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
NRFI rate: Anthony Kay: 63% (19 starts) | Gerrit Cole: 73% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.291 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.275 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge -8.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +17.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge -8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Bubba Chandler: xFIP 5.06, K% 19.6%, BB% 12.7%, xwOBA 0.309, whiff% 23.0% | 1st inn full (78 PA): xwOBA 0.308, K% 28.2%, BB% 12.8%, whiff% 26.1%
Brandon Pfaadt: xFIP 4.47, K% 15.7%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 21.0% | 1st inn full (33 PA): xwOBA 0.241, K% 12.1%, BB% 3.0%, whiff% 16.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 105)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 1.05 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.82
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Bubba Chandler: 79% (19 starts) | Brandon Pfaadt: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -8.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +17.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+102) edge -9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Troy Melton: xFIP 3.98, K% 26.4%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.278, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.328, K% 14.0%, BB% 11.6%, whiff% 23.1%
Dean Kremer: xFIP 3.94, K% 23.6%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.331, whiff% 28.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.451, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.9%, whiff% 30.0%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 99)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Troy Melton: 60% (10 starts) | Dean Kremer: 33% (6 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 20-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers struggles vs Split-Finger (xwOBA 0.221 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -9.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +18.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-104) edge -11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Taj Bradley: xFIP 3.95, K% 28.2%, BB% 9.6%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 26.5% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.270, K% 27.9%, BB% 15.1%, whiff% 23.0%
Seth Lugo: xFIP 4.46, K% 19.7%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 18.5% | 1st inn full (91 PA): xwOBA 0.399, K% 20.9%, BB% 3.3%, whiff% 16.6%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Taj Bradley: 60% (20 starts) | Seth Lugo: 52% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 61-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.437 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -11.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +20.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+100) edge -13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Colin Rea: xFIP 4.67, K% 18.1%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.358, whiff% 20.2% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 15.5%, BB% 14.1%, whiff% 17.7%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.83 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.12
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Colin Rea: 76% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -13.0%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +13.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge -13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Cade Cavalli: xFIP 3.39, K% 30.0%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 26.0% | 1st inn full (94 PA): xwOBA 0.264, K% 25.5%, BB% 9.6%, whiff% 23.0%
Shane Bieber: xFIP 4.35, K% 19.4%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.399, whiff% 23.8% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.447, K% 20.0%, BB% 13.3%, whiff% 25.0%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 127 (team avg 108)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.96 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.30, SO/G 0.82
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Cade Cavalli: 73% (22 starts) | Shane Bieber: 50% (6 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 31-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.311 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -13.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +22.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+110) edge -16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +110

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Luis Castillo: xFIP 4.50, K% 18.7%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 23.1% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.263, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.7%, whiff% 23.1%
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 107)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.83
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Luis Castillo: 62% (16 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.372 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge -16.9%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +17.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-110) diff -27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -110

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Gavin Williams: xFIP 2.99, K% 33.2%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.312, whiff% 29.6% | 1st inn full (88 PA): xwOBA 0.288, K% 36.4%, BB% 11.4%, whiff% 36.3%
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 98)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 94)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.00 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.58
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
NRFI rate: Gavin Williams: 76% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.239 vs SP's top pitch)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Cade Cavalli: xFIP 3.39, K% 30.0%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 26.0% | 1st inn full (94 PA): xwOBA 0.264, K% 25.5%, BB% 9.6%, whiff% 23.0%
Shane Bieber: xFIP 4.35, K% 19.4%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.399, whiff% 23.8% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.447, K% 20.0%, BB% 13.3%, whiff% 25.0%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 127 (team avg 108)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.96 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.30, SO/G 0.82
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Cade Cavalli: 73% (22 starts) | Shane Bieber: 50% (6 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 31-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.311 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -13.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +22.3%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 22% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-122) edge 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Taj Bradley: xFIP 3.95, K% 28.2%, BB% 9.6%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 26.5% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.270, K% 27.9%, BB% 15.1%, whiff% 23.0%
Seth Lugo: xFIP 4.46, K% 19.7%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 18.5% | 1st inn full (91 PA): xwOBA 0.399, K% 20.9%, BB% 3.3%, whiff% 16.6%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Taj Bradley: 60% (20 starts) | Seth Lugo: 52% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 61-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.437 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -11.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +20.3%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 20% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-130) edge 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Troy Melton: xFIP 3.98, K% 26.4%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.278, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.328, K% 14.0%, BB% 11.6%, whiff% 23.1%
Dean Kremer: xFIP 3.94, K% 23.6%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.331, whiff% 28.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.451, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.9%, whiff% 30.0%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 99)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Troy Melton: 60% (10 starts) | Dean Kremer: 33% (6 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 20-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers struggles vs Split-Finger (xwOBA 0.221 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -9.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +18.3%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-140) edge 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -140

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Luis Castillo: xFIP 4.50, K% 18.7%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 23.1% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.263, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.7%, whiff% 23.1%
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 107)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.83
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Luis Castillo: 62% (16 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.372 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge -16.9%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +17.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Bubba Chandler: xFIP 5.06, K% 19.6%, BB% 12.7%, xwOBA 0.309, whiff% 23.0% | 1st inn full (78 PA): xwOBA 0.308, K% 28.2%, BB% 12.8%, whiff% 26.1%
Brandon Pfaadt: xFIP 4.47, K% 15.7%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 21.0% | 1st inn full (33 PA): xwOBA 0.241, K% 12.1%, BB% 3.0%, whiff% 16.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 105)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 1.05 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.82
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Bubba Chandler: 79% (19 starts) | Brandon Pfaadt: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -8.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +17.8%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-108) edge 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.90, K% 17.8%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.351, whiff% 24.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 22.1%, BB% 3.5%, whiff% 24.3%
Gerrit Cole: xFIP 3.82, K% 27.2%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.261, K% 30.0%, BB% 5.0%, whiff% 21.4%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.97
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
Weather: Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
NRFI rate: Anthony Kay: 63% (19 starts) | Gerrit Cole: 73% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.291 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.275 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge -8.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +17.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Michael King: xFIP 4.50, K% 21.2%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 25.2% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.207, K% 22.4%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 23.6%
Michael Lorenzen: xFIP 4.70, K% 14.4%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.360, whiff% 19.2% | 1st inn full (98 PA): xwOBA 0.339, K% 22.4%, BB% 6.1%, whiff% 21.1%
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 96)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 103)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.88
Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
NRFI rate: Michael King: 86% (21 starts) | Michael Lorenzen: 62% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 65-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.250 vs SP's top pitch) | San Diego Padres struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -6.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +15.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-130) edge 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Colin Rea: xFIP 4.67, K% 18.1%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.358, whiff% 20.2% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 15.5%, BB% 14.1%, whiff% 17.7%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.83 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.12
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Colin Rea: 76% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -13.0%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +13.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Reid Detmers: xFIP 3.67, K% 28.0%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 29.0% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 27.8%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 23.9%
Peter Lambert: xFIP 4.49, K% 23.8%, BB% 9.4%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 23.9%, BB% 7.0%, whiff% 24.7%
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.03 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
Park: Angel Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Reid Detmers: 76% (21 starts) | Peter Lambert: 82% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 57-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.344 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.253 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -0.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +9.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-138) edge 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -138

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Gage Jump: xFIP 4.01, K% 24.1%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 24.5% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 23.8%, BB% 2.4%, whiff% 18.0%
Jake Bennett: xFIP 3.92, K% 18.3%, BB% 5.1%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 23.2% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.198, K% 26.5%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 23.2%
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.07 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.85
NRFI rate: Gage Jump: 82% (11 starts) | Jake Bennett: 100% (10 starts)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.260 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +108 | implied 48.1% | model edge +5.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -138 | implied 58.0% | model edge +3.1%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-113) edge 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Sandy Alcantara: xFIP 4.19, K% 19.3%, BB% 6.4%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.290, K% 24.4%, BB% 3.3%, whiff% 20.6%
Aaron Nola: xFIP 3.98, K% 24.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.249, K% 26.2%, BB% 2.4%, whiff% 26.4%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 102)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.53 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.16
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Sandy Alcantara: 82% (22 starts) | Aaron Nola: 76% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 57-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 31-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.321 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.288 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +6.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +2.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+116) edge -1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +116

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Christian Scott: xFIP 3.93, K% 29.5%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.309, whiff% 26.0% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.274, K% 32.8%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 23.6%
Chris Sale: xFIP 3.04, K% 30.5%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.277, whiff% 30.7% | 1st inn full (74 PA): xwOBA 0.257, K% 32.4%, BB% 2.7%, whiff% 26.5%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 96)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.94
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Christian Scott: 71% (14 starts) | Chris Sale: 90% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +10.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge -1.8%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+112) edge -2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +112

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Landen Roupp: xFIP 3.62, K% 23.1%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.285, whiff% 24.1% | 1st inn full (78 PA): xwOBA 0.238, K% 30.8%, BB% 10.3%, whiff% 24.3%
Logan Henderson: xFIP 3.61, K% 28.4%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.264, whiff% 27.7% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.247, K% 46.7%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 34.0%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.72 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.11
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Landen Roupp: 80% (20 starts) | Logan Henderson: 88% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 19-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.332 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.324 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +11.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge -2.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge -8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Griffin Jax: xFIP 3.60, K% 25.4%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.343, whiff% 30.7% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 33.9%, BB% 6.5%, whiff% 32.5%
Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 102)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.85
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Griffin Jax: 75% (16 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.302 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -110 | implied 52.4% | model edge +8.3%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -8.3%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-125) edge -13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Gavin Williams: xFIP 2.99, K% 33.2%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.312, whiff% 29.6% | 1st inn full (88 PA): xwOBA 0.288, K% 36.4%, BB% 11.4%, whiff% 36.3%
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 98)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 94)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.00 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.58
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
NRFI rate: Gavin Williams: 76% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.239 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +13.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -13.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-110) diff -51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -110

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Gavin Williams: xFIP 2.99, K% 33.2%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.312, whiff% 29.6% | 1st inn full (88 PA): xwOBA 0.288, K% 36.4%, BB% 11.4%, whiff% 36.3%
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 98)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 94)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.00 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.58
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
NRFI rate: Gavin Williams: 76% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.239 vs SP's top pitch)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Total	Over 8.0	-114	51.0%	73.7%	+22.7%	$+38.28	9	Bet on DK
B	Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds	7:10 PM	Run Line	Cleveland Guardians +1.5	-149	57.2%	73.0%	+15.9%	$+22.04	8	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

B Over 8.0 — New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox (Total) +22.7%

[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.9 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Anthony Kay (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Gerrit Cole (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Guaranteed Rate Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.9
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Stats within normal range

B Cleveland Guardians +1.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds (Run Line) +15.9%

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.3 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+22.04/$100
✓ Cover prob 73.0% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.9% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -149 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Away SP: Gavin Williams (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 0.97
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Weather: run factor 1.00
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Gavin Williams elite xFIP (2.99)
Line movement: against this side (line 1.5->-1.5, odds -149->+112)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-122	51.6%	65.4%	+13.8%	$+19.02	1	Bet on DK
B	Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds (F5)	7:10 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-146	55.7%	67.9%	+12.1%	$+14.35	1	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Under 5.5 — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +13.8%

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 4.01
Jake Bennett xFIP 3.92
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
Away SP: Jake Bennett (LHP)

B Under 5.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) (F5 Total) +12.1%

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.3 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Home SP TBD
Gavin Williams xFIP 2.99
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 50% (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: run factor 1.00
Away SP: Gavin Williams (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (16 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Christian Scott / Chris Sale	6.1 / 7.7	3.9 / 7.7	+10.8%	Score 6.1 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Landen Roupp / Logan Henderson	6.1 / 7.7	3.9 / 7.7	+11.8%	Score 6.1 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds	7:10 PM	TBD / Gavin Williams ⚠ Home SP	5.6 / 7.7	3.7 / 7.7	+13.9%	Score 5.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds	7:10 PM	TBD / Gavin Williams ⚠ Home SP	5.6 / 7.7	3.7 / 7.7	no odds	Score 5.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used \| No NRFI/YRFI odds available — edge gate skipped
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	Griffin Jax / TBD ⚠ Away SP	5.3 / 7.7	4.0 / 7.7	+8.3%	Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Sandy Alcantara / Aaron Nola	5.2 / 7.7	4.8 / 7.7	+6.5%	Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 6.5% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Reid Detmers / Peter Lambert	4.7 / 7.7	5.3 / 7.7	-0.0%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -0.0% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Gage Jump / Jake Bennett	4.7 / 7.7	5.3 / 7.7	+5.9%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 5.9% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Michael King / Michael Lorenzen	4.1 / 7.7	5.9 / 7.7	-6.9%	Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -6.9% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Bubba Chandler / Brandon Pfaadt	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-8.7%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.7% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Anthony Kay / Gerrit Cole	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-8.5%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.5% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Cade Cavalli / Shane Bieber	3.6 / 7.7	6.4 / 7.7	-13.2%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -13.2% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Troy Melton / Dean Kremer	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-9.4%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -9.4% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (29 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	Taj Bradley / Seth Lugo	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-11.2%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -11.2% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	TBD / Colin Rea ⚠ Home SP	3.2 / 7.7	6.1 / 7.7	-13.0%	Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -13.0% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	TBD / Luis Castillo ⚠ Home SP	2.7 / 7.7	6.6 / 7.7	-16.9%	Score 2.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -16.9% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 0 batter line(s)
Market discovery: no extra HR markets returned
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

No batter HR chances clear the watchlist tier.

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	100	89.5%	-848	-	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	100	89.4%	-844	-	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 \| Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	100	87.9%	-729	-	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds	7:10 PM	100	87.2%	-682	-	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds	7:10 PM	100	87.2%	-682	-	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	100	86.9%	-664	-	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	99	86.8%	-658	-	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	99	86.6%	-647	-	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	99	86.4%	-633	-	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.6%	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	92	85.1%	-570	-	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	92	84.5%	-544	-	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	92	84.3%	-537	-	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	91	83.9%	-522	-	PNC Park HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	91	83.4%	-502	-	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	89	82.0%	-455	-	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Landen Roupp	Logan Henderson	0.82	19.0%	50.6%	—	—
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Christian Scott	Chris Sale	0.93	18.0%	48.9%	—	—
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Gage Jump	Jake Bennett	1.00	16.6%	46.4%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Bubba Chandler	Brandon Pfaadt	0.96	16.1%	45.5%	—	—
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Reid Detmers	Peter Lambert	0.98	15.7%	44.8%	—	—
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Michael King	Michael Lorenzen	0.85	15.5%	44.5%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	None	Luis Castillo	0.97	14.9%	43.3%	—	—
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	Griffin Jax	None	0.94	13.6%	40.8%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	Taj Bradley	Seth Lugo	0.95	13.4%	40.3%	—	—
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Sandy Alcantara	Aaron Nola	0.88	13.2%	39.9%	—	—
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	None	Colin Rea	0.93	13.1%	39.7%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds	7:10 PM	Chase Burns	Slade Cecconi	1.15	12.8%	39.1%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds	7:10 PM	Chase Burns	Slade Cecconi	1.15	12.8%	39.1%	—	—
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Cade Cavalli	Shane Bieber	1.02	12.1%	37.6%	—	—
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Anthony Kay	Gerrit Cole	1.00	10.6%	34.4%	—	—
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Troy Melton	Dean Kremer	0.91	10.6%	34.3%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants	67.7	63.0	75.5	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians	65.9	66.9	69.5	3	Slider (52% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	64.9	65.8	69.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros	62.3	61.8	66.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles	60.3	57.1	68.5	6	Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	57.5	66.8	51.5	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	57.3	49.1	69.5	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers	57.1	52.1	65.0	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	56.2	51.1	63.0	7	Changeup (36% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	55.0	49.3	62.0	5	Slider (25% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	55.0	57.2	54.0	4	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays	54.7	57.1	54.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	53.4	56.2	53.0	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	51.8	54.6	47.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	51.6	69.4	36.0	6	Changeup (43% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 24.2%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	51.2	44.9	57.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers	50.4	59.9	42.0	6	Split-Finger (43% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks	49.6	45.8	53.0	6	Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	49.5	50.7	49.0	6	Slider (26% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates	47.0	43.0	50.0	6	Curveball (33% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	46.4	52.4	43.0	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers	46.3	44.1	46.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	41.8	40.4	41.0	7	Curveball (30% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	40.4	46.6	32.0	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	35.5	38.1	27.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	35.3	37.7	30.5	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	33.8	37.6	28.5	7	Changeup (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.4%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals	28.8	47.2	8.0	6	Curveball (38% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.399, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	15.7%	5.3	5.5	5.5	89	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	L	24.1%	4.0	5.2	5.0	67	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	L	30.6%	5.4	5.8	6.0	91	normal	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dean Kremer	Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers	R	23.6%	5.4	5.3	5.5	91	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	L	18.3%	6.3	5.9	6.0	106	deep	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.1%	5.2	5.2	5.2	87	normal	full	28.50	71.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	L	17.8%	4.3	4.8	4.7	72	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians	R	27.5%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	R	33.2%	5.8	6.0	6.0	97	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	R	16.8%	4.9	5.2	5.1	82	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	R	14.4%	4.7	4.8	4.7	79	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles	R	26.4%	5.5	6.0	6.0	92	normal	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	R	23.8%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	R	19.7%	5.4	5.6	5.6	91	normal	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros	L	28.0%	5.1	5.7	5.6	86	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	19.3%	6.6	6.5	6.5	111	deep	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants	R	28.4%	5.0	4.8	5.0	84	short	full	75.50	24.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	28.2%	6.2	5.7	6.0	104	deep	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	R	29.5%	4.3	4.5	4.5	72	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	R	27.2%	5.8	5.6	6.0	97	normal	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	R	24.0%	5.4	5.2	5.2	91	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	19.6%	5.1	5.0	5.0	86	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	R	21.2%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	23.1%	5.8	5.5	6.0	97	normal	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	18.7%	5.6	5.2	5.3	94	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	R	25.4%	5.4	4.5	4.7	91	normal	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals	R	19.4%	5.3	5.1	5.3	89	normal	full	8.00	92.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	30.0%	5.4	5.0	5.1	91	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	18.5	20.6	2.1	11.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Over	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	18.8	1.3	7.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Seth Lugo	Seth Lugo Under	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	16.3	-1.2	7.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael King	Michael King Under	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	17.5	16.3	-1.2	6.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Peter Lambert	Peter Lambert Under	Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Under	Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	17.0	-0.5	3.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.6	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Over	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.4%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes