MLB Bets 2026-07-25

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	247W–153L–0P	62%	-6.80 u	Last 14 days • 400 settled
Grade A	22W–17L–0P	56%	+0.65 u
Grade B	225W–136L–0P	62%	-7.45 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2257W–1588L–8P	59%	-143.49 u	All-time • 3853 settled
Grade A	227W–165L–0P	58%	+5.42 u
Grade B	2030W–1423L–8P	59%	-148.91 u

160 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter H+R+RBI	Brice Turang	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter H+R+RBI	Junior Caminero	1.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter H+R+RBI	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Hits	Gunnar Henderson	1.5	-263	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Total Bases	Otto Lopez	1.5	111	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	A.J. Ewing	0.5	-360	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-373	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-359	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Alejandro Osuna	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Andrés Chaparro	0.5	-395	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Angel Martinez	0.5	-471	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Anthony Seigler	0.5	-204	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Brandon Nimmo	0.5	-419	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-345	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-549	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-281	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Bryan Torres	0.5	-372	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Bryson Stott	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Byron Buxton	0.5	-250	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Cal Raleigh	0.5	-264	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-292	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Cam Smith	0.5	-326	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-397	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Casey Schmitt	0.5	-406	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-423	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-241	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-513	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-454	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-390	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Daulton Varsho	0.5	-516	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Derek Hill	0.5	-459	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-318	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Dominic Canzone	0.5	-432	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Dominic Smith	0.5	-323	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Donovan Walton	0.5	-364	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Dylan Beavers	0.5	-266	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Dylan Crews	0.5	-307	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Evan Carter	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-537	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Francisco Lindor	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Gabriel Moreno	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Gunnar Henderson	0.5	-266	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Heliot Ramos	0.5	-367	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Heriberto Hernandez	0.5	-219	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-428	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-493	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-410	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	JJ Bleday	0.5	-210	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill	0.5	-267	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jacob Wilson	0.5	-630	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-355	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jasson Domínguez	0.5	-227	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Javier Sanoja	0.5	-620	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-226	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-286	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Joc Pederson	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jonah Heim	0.5	-435	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jose Ramirez	0.5	-236	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Josh Naylor	0.5	-457	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Josh Smith	0.5	-433	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Julio Rodriguez	0.5	-415	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-302	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Kazuma Okamoto	0.5	-369	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-264	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-220	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Kyle Manzardo	0.5	-354	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Kyle Stowers	0.5	-294	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Leody Taveras	0.5	-337	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Liam Hicks	0.5	-335	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-292	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Marcus Semien	0.5	-383	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Masataka Yoshida	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Masyn Winn	0.5	-347	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Nathan Lukes	0.5	-558	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-471	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-576	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Noelvi Marte	0.5	-404	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Nolan Arenado	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-415	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-384	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Paul Goldschmidt	0.5	-232	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Randy Arozarena	0.5	-237	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Royce Lewis	0.5	-197	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Ryan O'Hearn	0.5	-410	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Sal Stewart	0.5	-298	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-371	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Teoscar Hernandez	0.5	-289	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Tommy White	0.5	-413	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Travis Bazzana	0.5	-313	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-349	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Trevor Larnach	0.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Tyler Stephenson	0.5	-248	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Victor Caratini	0.5	-220	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	William Contreras	0.5	-267	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-354	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Yainer Diaz	0.5	-573	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Yandy Diaz	0.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Dylan Cease	7.5	-110	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Eury Perez	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Hunter Brown	5.5	114	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Hunter Greene	5.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Mitch Bratt	3.5	119	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Robert Gasser	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Shota Imanaga	5.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Dylan Cease	2.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Eury Perez	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Foster Griffin	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Mitch Bratt	2.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Nolan McLean	2.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Feltner	3.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	2.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Foster Griffin	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hunter Greene	5.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Robert Gasser	5.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryan Johnson	5.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Shota Imanaga	5.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Sonny Gray	5.5	-106	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Outs	Dylan Cease	17.5	-191	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Walks	Bryan Woo	1.5	-218	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Walks	Eury Perez	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Walks	Nick Martinez	1.5	-177	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Walks	Robert Gasser	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Walks	Sean Burke	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Run Line	Philadelphia Phillies	+1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Total	Over	7.5	-108	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Total	Over	8.5	-115	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-24	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-126	-	LOSS	-1.000	Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 4, New York M
2026-07-24	K Prop	Bryce Miller	5.5	-153	-	LOSS	-1.000	Bryce Miller: 0.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-24	K Prop	Tarik Skubal	7.5	-145	-	WIN	+0.690	Tarik Skubal: 12.0 (line 7.5)
2026-07-24	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	4.5	-154	-	LOSS	-1.000	Joey Cantillo: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-152	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jordan Walker: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Burleson	1.5	-154	-	LOSS	-1.000	Alec Burleson: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-129	-	WIN	+0.775	Drake Baldwin: 3.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Juan Soto	0.5	-144	-	WIN	+0.694	Juan Soto: 2.0 (line 0.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Nicky Lopez	1.5	140	-	WIN	+1.400	Nicky Lopez: 2.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	453	57%	-0.15u	53	55%	-1.81u	211	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	401	58%	+12.85u	51	51%	-5.33u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	140	54%	-3.25u	2	50%	-0.17u	42	62%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	710	73%	-3.22u	83	82%	+5.84u	6	83%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	410	58%	-9.37u	93	51%	-13.73u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	295	59%	-13.03u	65	63%	+1.02u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	38	76%	+2.90u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	109	46%	-14.19u	7	57%	-0.06u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	3	67%	+0.43u	2	100%	+1.43u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	504	51%	-55.47u	20	60%	+1.22u	74	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	1/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 453, 14d N 53	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 401, 14d N 51	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 140, 14d N 2	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 32 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 109, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 3, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 2 actionable / 59 total candidate(s); season N 504, 14d N 20	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 59 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 758 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 319 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 220 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 737 pitcher(s), 3242 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 562 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 30 team(s), 270 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1411 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 270 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 15 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics, Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: San Diego Padres, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians, Texas Rangers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 732 market side(s) checked \| 732 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 4 game(s) fetched \| 4 with ML odds \| 4 with total odds \| 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 59 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 4 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 4 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 606 \| batter bats 394 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 60 \| batter pitch-type 562 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 71 batter(s) scored \| 4 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	+124	-149	+1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 10.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	+198	-244	+1.5 (-103)	-1.5 (-117)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	-111	-108	-1.5 (+154)	+1.5 (-188)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 43 Grade B | 229 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.2	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker Over	RED@CAR	7:16 PM	1.5	2.7	-123	Caesars Over 1.5 -122 \| best price	79.0%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -155	Batter H+R+RBI	Brice Turang Over	ROC@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	2.6	-155	BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 \| best price	73.3%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (4 play(s))

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Robert Gasser Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.75

Pitcher Earned Runs - Nathan Eovaldi Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.17

Batter Hits - Brice Turang Under

Projection: 1.1Displayed: Under 1.5 -273Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 +100Market line: majority 6 | avg N/ARecommended: Bovada Direct Under 6 -115 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 6 / avg N/A

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-123) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.51
Base projection 2.51 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.336 (55 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/101 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 32/48 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 62/101 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.51
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.2 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-155) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-155	+116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.286 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 17 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .235
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/97 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 57/97 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.38
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -155 -- A risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (43 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 5.5 (-123) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-175	+130	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	5.5	-101	-128	-
BetRivers	5.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	-104	-123	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.4% vs 17% min; cushion -1.12K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Robert Gasser: K/9 8.4, proj 4.4K over 5.4 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Cutter (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Nestor Ceja — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Cutter: 18.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.167
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.2%, L7 19.9%, season 22.6%, top-6 22.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 23.0%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.6% (5/6); lineup K% 22.1% (7/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Robert Gasser Under 5.5 (-150) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-170	+120	-
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.167
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.2%, L7 19.9%, season 22.6%, top-6 22.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (5/6); lineup K% 22.1% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Robert Gasser Over 0.5 (-202) diff 200.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 62.6% / Under 37.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-202	+150	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5009855072836755 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 62.6% / under 37.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.167
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.2%, L7 19.9%, season 22.6%, top-6 22.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 7.8%, L7 6.5%, season 8.3% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (5/6); lineup K% 22.1% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-202); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Bryan Woo Under 1.5 (-194) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.0503591373355485 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.21 over 5.6 IP (BB% 4.9%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 38.2% / under 61.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 71 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .242 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.3%, BVP 14.1%/71 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.7%, split 7.1%, L7 4.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.6%/71 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-194) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 (-151) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+120	-160	-
DK	3.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.55 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.71, ERA 5.63)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Feltner: 100 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .185 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.0%, L7 24.4%, season 21.2%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 26.0%/100 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 38 play(s) (B 38)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-576) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -576 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -576

Selected market: Over 19.8% / Under 80.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -576 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+376	-576	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/101 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 81/101 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-576) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-394) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -394 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -394

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -394 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+269	-394	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/104 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 81/104 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-394) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-435) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -435 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -435

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -435 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+294	-435	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 24 PA | 9/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/93 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 31/45 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 64/93 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-435) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-537) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -537 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -537

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -537 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+354	-537	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/94 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 73/94 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-537) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-457) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -457

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+307	-457	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/97 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 67/97 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-457) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-404) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+275	-404	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/100 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 70/100 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-404); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-281) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	-
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 70/90 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/42 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 70/90 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-281) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-290) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+203	-290	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-290) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-320) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+223	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-320) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-354) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+244	-354	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-354) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alejandro Osuna Under 0.5 (-425) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -425 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+287	-425	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-432) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -432

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+292	-432	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-432) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-264) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -264

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+186	-264	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-264) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-454) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -454

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+305	-454	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-454); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-246) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+174	-246	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 39 PA | 5/36 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .374
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 39 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/96 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 31/49 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 64/96 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-246) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-371) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	-
DK	0.5	+254	-371	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/100 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 74/100 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-371) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-419) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -419

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+284	-419	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/97 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 70/97 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-419) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-359) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+247	-359	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .473
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/102 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 70/102 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-359); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-433) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+293	-433	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/103 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 74/103 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-433) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-174) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -174

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+126	-174	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 75/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-174) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-250) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+177	-250	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Brady Basso: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 55/79 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/38 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 30/41 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 55/79 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-250) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-210) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+150	-210	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-210); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-258) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+182	-258	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-258); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-248) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+185	-260	-
DK	0.5	+176	-248	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-248); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-347) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+239	-347	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/95 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 67/95 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-347); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-185) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+133	-185	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-372) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+255	-372	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-372); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-197) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -197

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+141	-197	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-197) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-167) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -167

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+124	-170	-
DK	0.5	+121	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-167) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-220) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+157	-220	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-220) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-428) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -428

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+289	-428	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/96 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 66/96 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

⚠ Heavy juice (-428); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-435) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -435

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+294	-435	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-435) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-413) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -413

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+280	-413	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-413) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-364) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -364

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+250	-364	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-364) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-630) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -630

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+402	-630	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-630) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-371) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	-
DK	0.5	+254	-371	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/102 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 64/102 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

⚠ Heavy juice (-371); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-238) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+169	-238	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 36.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .368
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/96 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 67/96 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

⚠ Heavy juice (-238); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-298) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+209	-298	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/50 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 63/102 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

⚠ Heavy juice (-298); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (229 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 5 play(s) (B 2 | C 3)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 (+107) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 6.25 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-160	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	6.5	+128	-167	-
BetRivers	6.5	+112	-148	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+105	-135	-
DK	6.5	+107	-137	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+110	-140	-
Fanatics	6.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 25.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.64K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Nathan Eovaldi: K/9 10.6, proj 8.1K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 23.4% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tripp Gibson — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 159 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .228 | OPS .626
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 159 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, top-6 17.9%, BVP 24.5%/159 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.9% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.42
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
K% trend: support +7.2 ppts (recent 32.5% vs season 25.3%, proj adj +3.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.0% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bryan Woo Over 5.5 (-123) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	5.5	-116	-111	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	5.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-104	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.06K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.0% / under 48.0%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.1, proj 5.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tripp Gibson — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Sweeper: 26.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 71 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .242 | OPS .614
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 71 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.3%, BVP 14.1%/71 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.74
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andre Pallante Under 4.5 (-144) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 4.12 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 3.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	3.5	-175	+134	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetRivers	4.5	+118	-159	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+113	-144	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.67K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 2/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.43
Andre Pallante: K/9 5.7, proj 3.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Emil Jimenez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andre Pallante: 101 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .206 | OPS .549
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 101 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.7%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.8%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.95
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.3 ppts (recent 10.6% vs season 16.9%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hunter Greene Over 6.5 (-113) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	6.5	+103	-133	Recommended
BetRivers	6.5	-113	-118	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	-
DK	6.5	-113	-113	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 13.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.86K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Hunter Greene: K/9 11.4, proj 7.4K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/3 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 26.6% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Slider (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Emil Jimenez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hunter Greene: 42 PA | K% 35.7% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .583
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.5%, L7 22.0%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 35.7%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.4% (5/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.67 | Season Avg 8.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 over 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 4.5 (+123) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+140	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+130	-169	-
BetRivers	4.5	+112	-150	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+123	-157	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+130	-166	-
Fanatics	4.5	+130	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.20K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Ryan Feltner: K/9 6.9, proj 4.7K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.366 | top pitch: Changeup (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Nestor Ceja — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Feltner: 100 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .185 | OPS .501
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 100 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.0%, L7 24.4%, season 21.2%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 26.0%/100 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/14 (21%) | Season 3/14 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.57
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 29 play(s) (B 1 | C 28)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 (+101) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+101	-140	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.83
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/92 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 over 0.5 (70%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Walks: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 58/92 over 0.5 (63%), avg 0.83

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-513) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -513 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -513

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -513 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+340	-513	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-484) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -484 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -484

Selected market: Over 22.2% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -484 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+323	-484	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braxton Fulford Under 0.5 (-513) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -513 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -513

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -513 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+340	-513	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-502) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -502

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+333	-502	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edwin Arroyo Under 0.5 (-529) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -529

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+349	-529	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Friedl Under 0.5 (-361) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+248	-361	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-524) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -524 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -524

Selected market: Over 21.1% / Under 78.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -524 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+346	-524	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-555) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -555 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -555

Selected market: Over 20.3% / Under 79.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -555 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+364	-555	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-105) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+100	-132	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	-105	-131	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .619
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/94 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/49 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 22/45 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 37/94 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-340) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+235	-340	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-263) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+186	-263	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-389) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -389 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -389

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -389 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+265	-389	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-414) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -414 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -414

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -414 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+281	-414	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-276) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+194	-276	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-349) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -349

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+241	-349	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/99 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/48 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 60/99 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-406) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -406 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -406

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -406 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+276	-406	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 29/48 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 71/101 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-200) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+143	-200	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .612
BVP walk adjustment: 1.11x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/83 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/40 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 27/43 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 51/83 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-170) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+123	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/93 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 26/43 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 59/93 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (+117) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +117

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+129	-173	-
DK	0.5	+117	-162	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 17 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .235
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/52 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 21/45 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 45/97 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-236) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+167	-236	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/98 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 27/49 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 63/98 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-337) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+233	-337	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 26 PA | 4/24 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .564
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/82 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/42 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 26/40 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 47/82 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-296) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -296 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -296 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-325	-
DK	0.5	+207	-296	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-321) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+223	-321	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-341) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+236	-341	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-129) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-103	-130	-
DK	0.5	-107	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-262) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+185	-262	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 (+183) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +183 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +183

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +183 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+183	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/91 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/41 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 17/50 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 36/91 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-323) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+224	-323	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 28/49 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 63/102 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 57 play(s) (B 17 | C 40)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-122) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.489 (47 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 31/48 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 60/102 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-128) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.384, xSLG 0.593 (22 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .612
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/83 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/40 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 26/43 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 50/83 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-142) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.569 (11 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 48/91 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/41 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 48/91 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-144) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.408 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/102 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 56/102 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-131) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-131	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.436 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/90 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/42 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 41/90 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-121) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.342 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.502 (26 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 24 PA | 9/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/93 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 54/93 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-125) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.151, xSLG 0.186 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/100 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 49/100 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-116) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.412, xSLG 0.663 (20 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 48/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (-120) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-107	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.273 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/93 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 45/93 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-159) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -159; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-159	+120	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (-149) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-149	+112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-143) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-114) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-119) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (-119) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Under 2.5 (-167) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	Recommended
Caesars	2.5	+120	-159	-
DK	2.5	+125	-167	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.37 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.355 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 36.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 66/96 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/53 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 31/43 under 2.5 (72%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 66/96 under 2.5 (69%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-113) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.409, xSLG 0.581 (33 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .619
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/94 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 43/94 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-111) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.457, xSLG 0.667 (22 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/96 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 50/96 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-107) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/98 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 50/98 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (-102) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-104	-130	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.376 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/100 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 55/100 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+104) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-128	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.329 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/90 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 45/90 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+114) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.323 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 39 PA | 5/36 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .374
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 39 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/96 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 50/96 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+132) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.460 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/102 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 54/102 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+103) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.434 (56 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+115) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.453, xSLG 0.689 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/89 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/45 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 47/89 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Under 2.5 (-163) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+115	-154	-
DK	2.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.77 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Under 2.5 (-149) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+107	-143	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.85 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+101) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.529 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 50/104 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+116) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.450 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/94 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 47/94 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (-106) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-106	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Over 1.5 (+122) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-180	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (-108) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alan Roden Over 1.5 (-105) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-109) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 (+112) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	2.5	+109	-145	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.77 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.595 (27 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 40/92 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -1.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/47 over 2.5 (45%), avg 2.57 | Away Batter HRR: 19/45 over 2.5 (42%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 40/92 over 2.5 (44%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (+108) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.376 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/99 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 43/99 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-102) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/97 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 43/97 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+102) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Kreidler Over 1.5 (+115) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (-103) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+112) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Byron Buxton Over 2.5 (-106) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	2.5	-103	-130	-
DK	2.5	-106	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.69 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.392 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brady Basso: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 33/79 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/38 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.55 | Away Batter HRR: 15/41 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 33/79 over 2.5 (42%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edwin Arroyo Under 1.5 (-150) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 1.5 (-160) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-175	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+104) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.274 (59 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/95 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 49/95 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.P. Crawford Under 1.5 (-181) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 26 PA | 4/24 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .564
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/82 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 50/82 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Friedl Under 1.5 (-168) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-180	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Under 1.5 (-159) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Under 1.5 (-148) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-112) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+103) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+101) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Under 1.5 (-131) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Under 1.5 (-131) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Robert Gasser Under 17.5 (-121) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-120	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-111	-122	-
DK	17.5	-110	-121	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-118	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 15.094999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.41 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.1 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.167
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.2%, L7 19.9%, season 22.6%, top-6 22.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 7.8%, L7 6.5%, season 8.3% (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (5/6); lineup K% 22.1% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.40 | Season Avg 15.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nathan Eovaldi Over 17.5 (-208) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -208

Selected market: Over 63.2% / Under 36.8%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-225	+160	-
BetOnline	17.5	-200	+150	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-200	+150	-
Caesars	17.5	-200	+148	-
DK	17.5	-208	+154	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-200	+148	-
Fanatics	17.5	-195	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.141000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.31 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 63.2% / under 36.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 159 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .228 | OPS .626
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, top-6 17.9%, BVP 24.5%/159 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 8.9%, L7 8.1%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.4%/159 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 20.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.20 | Season Avg 18.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Hunter Greene Under 17.5 (+135) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +135

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	17.5	-162	+120	-
DK	17.5	-180	+135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+116	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.193 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 30%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/3 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.86 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 60.2% / under 39.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hunter Greene: 42 PA | K% 35.7% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.5%, L7 22.0%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 35.7%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 8.4%, L7 8.1%, season 8.5%, BVP 11.9%/42 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.4% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.33 | Season Avg 16.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/3 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Andre Pallante Under 17.5 (-108) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-120	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-121	-111	-
DK	17.5	-123	-108	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-114	-
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.545 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andre Pallante: 101 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .206 | OPS .549
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.7%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.8%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 8.9%, L7 7.3%, season 9.5%, BVP 8.9%/101 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 16.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Under 18.5 (-170) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 18.33 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 5 books | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 17.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-200	+140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	18.5	+130	-170	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+115	-155	Recommended
Caesars	18.5	+130	-180	-
DK	18.5	+128	-170	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+124	-166	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.988 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.70 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 41.1% / under 58.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 18.33 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 71 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .242 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.3%, BVP 14.1%/71 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.7%, split 7.1%, L7 4.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.6%/71 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Feltner Under 5.5 (-138) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-175	+130	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 9.6%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Feltner: 100 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .185 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.0%, L7 24.4%, season 21.2%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 26.0%/100 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-145) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	Recommended
DK	5.5	+109	-145	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 4.9%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 71 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .242 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.3%, BVP 14.1%/71 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andre Pallante Under 5.5 (-120) Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 7.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andre Pallante: 101 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .206 | OPS .549
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.7%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.8%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hunter Greene Over 1.5 (+107) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9436396483654452 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hunter Greene: 42 PA | K% 35.7% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.5%, L7 22.0%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 35.7%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 8.4%, L7 8.1%, season 8.5%, BVP 11.9%/42 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.4% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.67 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/3 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Feltner Under 2.5 (-159) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.133987038760694 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.6%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Feltner: 100 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .185 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.0%, L7 24.4%, season 21.2%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 26.0%/100 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 11.8%, L7 11.2%, season 10.6%, BVP 6.0%/100 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nathan Eovaldi Under 1.5 (-188) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -188 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+140	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3576833786632716 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.6 IP (BB% 5.8%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 39.0% / under 61.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 159 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .228 | OPS .626
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, top-6 17.9%, BVP 24.5%/159 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 8.9%, L7 8.1%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.4%/159 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andre Pallante Over 1.5 (-143) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-143	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6174384983617545 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.9% / under 45.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andre Pallante: 101 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .206 | OPS .549
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.7%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.8%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 8.9%, L7 7.3%, season 9.5%, BVP 8.9%/101 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nathan Eovaldi Over 1.5 (-167) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-167	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.59 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.31, ERA 4.20)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 159 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .228 | OPS .626
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, top-6 17.9%, BVP 24.5%/159 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Under 2.5 (-153) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.63 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.70, ERA 4.05)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 71 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .242 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.3%, BVP 14.1%/71 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Under 2.5 (-144) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+108	-144	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.07 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 4.33)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andre Pallante: 101 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .206 | OPS .549
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.7%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.8%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Greene Over 2.5 (+117) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+117	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.39 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.86, ERA 5.18)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hunter Greene: 42 PA | K% 35.7% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 19.5%, L7 22.0%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 35.7%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.4% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.67 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Under 2.5 (-155) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	-
DK	2.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.46 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 4.84)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.167
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.2%, L7 19.9%, season 22.6%, top-6 22.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (5/6); lineup K% 22.1% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-178) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-224) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+166	-224	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Brice Turang Under 1.5 (-273) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+200	-273	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.265)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 17 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .235
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/97 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 34/45 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 71/97 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-258) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+190	-258	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.316 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 36.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 6/34 (18%) | L5 3/17 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/96 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 67/96 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Byron Buxton Under 1.5 (-219) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -219 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -219

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -219 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+185	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+163	-219	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.262 (21 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Basso: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 9/36 (25%) | L5 5/15 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 56/79 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/38 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 31/41 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 56/79 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 32 play(s) (C 32)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-142) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-128	-101	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Basso: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/79 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.18 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/38 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.55 | Away Batter TB: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 40/79 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.28

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+118) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.667 (22 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/96 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter TB: 42/96 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.10

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+113) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.336 (55 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (-112) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-109	-119	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.595 (27 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/92 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 18/45 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 40/92 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+122) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.593 (22 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .612
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/83 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/40 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 41/83 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+112) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.569 (11 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/91 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 40/91 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+117) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.436 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/90 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 37/90 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+109) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 17 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .235
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/97 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 42/97 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+115) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.489 (47 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-114) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+121) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+148) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+148	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/100 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 49/100 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+121) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.502 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 24 PA | 9/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/93 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 36/93 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+115) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-170	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.663 (20 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/97 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 42/97 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (+136) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+126) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+109) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-112) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+138) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+146) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+146) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+134) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+126) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (60 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/102 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 41/102 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+120) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.408 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/102 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 40/102 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.53

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+132) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.186 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/100 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/49 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 36/100 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+141) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/98 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 39/98 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+107) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 36.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/96 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 40/96 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.51

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+133) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	-
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Under 1.5 (-175) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Under 1.5 (-159) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Under 1.5 (-199) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+145	-197	-
DK	1.5	+148	-199	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Under 1.5 (-174) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-165	Recommended
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.273 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/93 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 26/43 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 57/93 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (+100) edge 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 7 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +100

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 9 books | 7 at 1 book

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 7 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 7.5 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
MyBookie	7	-125	-	Recommended
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	+100	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	+102	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+100	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+100	-	-
DK	7.5	+100	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+102	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+103	-	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 100)
Seattle Mariners confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Nathan Eovaldi elite xFIP (3.31)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-105) edge 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 7.5 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8 -105

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 8 books | 7.5 at 1 book | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 7.5 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 8 -101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	-120	-	Recommended
BetMGM	8	-105	-	-
BetOnline	8	-104	-	-
BetRivers	8	-110	-	-
BetUS	8	-105	-	-
DK	8	-105	-	Selected
FanDuel	8	-105	-	-
LowVig	8	-101	-	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	8	-109	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Andre Pallante (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Hunter Greene (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
Busch Stadium (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 97)
Cincinnati Reds confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 112 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.09
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Hunter Greene small sample (16 IP) — stats 20% actual / 80% league avg (regression applied)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (+100) edge 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6 -115 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 6 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6 -115 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is MyBookie Under 5.5 +101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+100	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	-123	+101	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	6	+100	-120	-
BetUS	6	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	6	-115	-115	Recommended
Caesars	6	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Mike Paredes xFIP 4.75
Brady Basso xFIP 4.22
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 111 (team 101)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 120 (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.15
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mike Paredes (RHP)
Away SP: Brady Basso (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 47.2% (2 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 ML — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+160) edge 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: draftkings +160

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Robert Gasser xFIP 4.41
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.71
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 108 (team 102)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.13
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Robert Gasser (LHP)
Away SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+114) edge 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: draftkings +114

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Mike Paredes xFIP 4.75
Brady Basso xFIP 4.22
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 111 (team 101)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 120 (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.15
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mike Paredes (RHP)
Away SP: Brady Basso (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ NRFI — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-138) edge 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -138

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Nathan Eovaldi: xFIP 3.31, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 30.8% | 1st inn full (81 PA): xwOBA 0.345, K% 29.6%, BB% 4.9%, whiff% 31.0%
Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.70, K% 24.4%, BB% 4.9%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 24.9% | 1st inn full (77 PA): xwOBA 0.273, K% 29.9%, BB% 5.2%, whiff% 27.7%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 100)
Seattle Mariners confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.29, SO/G 0.80
Umpire: Tripp Gibson — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone)
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
NRFI rate: Nathan Eovaldi: 63% (19 starts) | Bryan Woo: 90% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 66-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.286 vs SP's top pitch) | Texas Rangers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.283 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -138 | implied 58.0% | model edge +9.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +108 | implied 48.1% | model edge -0.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-140) edge -2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -140

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Andre Pallante: xFIP 4.14, K% 14.7%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.299, whiff% 20.9% | 1st inn full (85 PA): xwOBA 0.375, K% 14.1%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 17.1%
Hunter Greene: xFIP 3.86, K% 30.1%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 27.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (13 PA): xwOBA 0.429, K% 46.2%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 40.7%
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.80 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 1.06
Umpire: Emil Jimenez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Andre Pallante: 63% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 31-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.300 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge -2.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge +12.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+120) edge -8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +120

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Mike Paredes: xFIP 4.75, K% 15.3%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.349, whiff% 19.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (21 PA): xwOBA 0.307, K% 14.3%, BB% 4.8%, whiff% 21.6%
Brady Basso: xFIP 4.22, K% 20.8%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.352, whiff% 30.1%
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 101)
Athletics confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.27, SO/G 1.00 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.67, SO/G 1.08
Umpire: Dillon Wilson — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Mike Paredes: 60% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 45-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.271 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +120 | implied 45.5% | model edge -8.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -154 | implied 60.6% | model edge +17.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+112) edge -15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +112

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Robert Gasser: xFIP 4.41, K% 21.9%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.209, K% 30.2%, BB% 14.0%, whiff% 18.6%
Ryan Feltner: xFIP 4.71, K% 17.3%, BB% 9.6%, xwOBA 0.366, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.396, K% 17.7%, BB% 9.7%, whiff% 24.5%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.12 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.70
Umpire: Nestor Ceja — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Robert Gasser: 60% (10 starts) | Ryan Feltner: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge -15.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +24.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-142) edge 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -142

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Robert Gasser: xFIP 4.41, K% 21.9%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.209, K% 30.2%, BB% 14.0%, whiff% 18.6%
Ryan Feltner: xFIP 4.71, K% 17.3%, BB% 9.6%, xwOBA 0.366, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.396, K% 17.7%, BB% 9.7%, whiff% 24.5%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.12 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.70
Umpire: Nestor Ceja — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Robert Gasser: 60% (10 starts) | Ryan Feltner: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge -15.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +24.5%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 24% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-154) edge 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -154

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Mike Paredes: xFIP 4.75, K% 15.3%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.349, whiff% 19.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (21 PA): xwOBA 0.307, K% 14.3%, BB% 4.8%, whiff% 21.6%
Brady Basso: xFIP 4.22, K% 20.8%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.352, whiff% 30.1%
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 101)
Athletics confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.27, SO/G 1.00 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.67, SO/G 1.08
Umpire: Dillon Wilson — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Mike Paredes: 60% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 45-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.271 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +120 | implied 45.5% | model edge -8.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -154 | implied 60.6% | model edge +17.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+110) edge 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +110

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Andre Pallante: xFIP 4.14, K% 14.7%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.299, whiff% 20.9% | 1st inn full (85 PA): xwOBA 0.375, K% 14.1%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 17.1%
Hunter Greene: xFIP 3.86, K% 30.1%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 27.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (13 PA): xwOBA 0.429, K% 46.2%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 40.7%
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.80 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 1.06
Umpire: Emil Jimenez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Andre Pallante: 63% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 31-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.300 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge -2.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge +12.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+108) edge -0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +108

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Nathan Eovaldi: xFIP 3.31, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 30.8% | 1st inn full (81 PA): xwOBA 0.345, K% 29.6%, BB% 4.9%, whiff% 31.0%
Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.70, K% 24.4%, BB% 4.9%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 24.9% | 1st inn full (77 PA): xwOBA 0.273, K% 29.9%, BB% 5.2%, whiff% 27.7%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 100)
Seattle Mariners confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.29, SO/G 0.80
Umpire: Tripp Gibson — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone)
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
NRFI rate: Nathan Eovaldi: 63% (19 starts) | Bryan Woo: 90% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 66-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.286 vs SP's top pitch) | Texas Rangers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.283 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -138 | implied 58.0% | model edge +9.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +108 | implied 48.1% | model edge -0.4%

▸ Batter HR — 71 play(s) (C 71)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Osuna Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.5% / Under 84.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Friedl Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edwin Arroyo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braxton Fulford Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-650) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-900) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-550) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-900) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0421
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (59 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/95 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 91/95 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0825
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/97 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/97 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0825
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.381 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/97 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/97 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.376 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/99 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/99 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-750) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0860
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.273 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/93 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 85/93 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1064
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.450 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/94 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 85/94 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1011
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.689 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/89 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 81/89 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1146
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 39 PA | 5/36 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .374
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 39 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 85/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.329 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/90 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 81/90 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-650) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1031
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.663 (20 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/97 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/97 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1078
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.434 (56 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/102 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/102 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1042
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 36.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/96 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 39/43 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 86/96 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0891
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.626 (91 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Vásquez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Randy Vásquez: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1220
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 26 PA | 4/24 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .564
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 73/82 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 73/82 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.460 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.639 (45 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/103 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/103 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.529 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-900) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.408 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/102 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 91/102 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Freeman Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/101 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 87/101 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1471
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.489 (47 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.186 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/100 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 86/100 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1531
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1546
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 17 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .235
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1613
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.502 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 24 PA | 9/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/93 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 79/93 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1800
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/100 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/100 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2059
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (60 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/102 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 83/102 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-800) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1758
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.569 (11 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/91 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/41 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 77/91 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2048
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.593 (22 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .612
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/83 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/40 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 37/43 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 67/83 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-600) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.436 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/90 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 74/90 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-500) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1915
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.581 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .619
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/94 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 76/94 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-600) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2178
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.336 (55 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/101 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 79/101 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-350) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2174
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.595 (27 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mike Paredes contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 74/92 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 74/92 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3229
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.667 (22 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/96 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter HR: 72/96 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3165
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Basso contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Basso: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 56/79 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/38 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 30/41 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 56/79 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Total	Over 7.5	+100	47.8%	69.6%	+21.8%	$+39.29	9	Bet on DK
C	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	Total	Over 8.0	-105	48.9%	63.9%	+15.0%	$+24.80	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (Total) +21.8%

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 100)
Seattle Mariners confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Nathan Eovaldi elite xFIP (3.31)

C Over 8.0 — Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (Total) +15.0%

[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Andre Pallante (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Hunter Greene (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
Busch Stadium (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 97)
Cincinnati Reds confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 112 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.09
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Hunter Greene small sample (16 IP) — stats 20% actual / 80% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	+100	46.9%	59.8%	+12.8%	$+19.57	6	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	+160	36.2%	48.4%	+12.2%	$+25.90	9	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	+114	44.1%	53.2%	+9.1%	$+13.88	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Under 5.5 — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5) (F5 Total) +12.8%

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Mike Paredes xFIP 4.75
Brady Basso xFIP 4.22
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 111 (team 101)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 120 (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.15
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mike Paredes (RHP)
Away SP: Brady Basso (LHP)

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) (F5 ML) +12.2%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Robert Gasser xFIP 4.41
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.71
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 108 (team 102)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.13
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Robert Gasser (LHP)
Away SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)

C Athletics — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5) (F5 ML) +9.1%

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Mike Paredes xFIP 4.75
Brady Basso xFIP 4.22
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 111 (team 101)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 120 (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.15
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mike Paredes (RHP)
Away SP: Brady Basso (LHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (4 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Nathan Eovaldi / Bryan Woo	5.8 / 7.7	4.2 / 7.7	+9.3%	Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	Andre Pallante / Hunter Greene	4.8 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	-2.9%	Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -2.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (13 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied)
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	Mike Paredes / Brady Basso	3.2 / 7.7	6.8 / 7.7	-8.1%	Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (21 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	Robert Gasser / Ryan Feltner	2.8 / 7.7	7.2 / 7.7	-15.3%	Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -15.3% < 8% required

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 71 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=71
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	4	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+260	-	40.0%	25.8%	+14.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	2	Mike Paredes (R)	theScore Bet	+230	-	35.9%	28.0%	+7.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	3	Mike Paredes (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	35.8%	16.4%	+19.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	5	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	34.9%	22.0%	+12.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	3	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	32.6%	15.0%	+17.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	3	Brady Basso (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	32.3%	19.7%	+12.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	2	Brady Basso (L)	theScore Bet	+230	-	31.6%	28.0%	+3.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	-	Nathan Eovaldi (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	31.2%	15.6%	+15.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	1	Andre Pallante (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	29.2%	14.3%	+14.9%	97	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	2	Hunter Greene (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	28.1%	19.7%	+8.4%	94	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	2	Andre Pallante (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	28.0%	14.3%	+13.7%	93	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	2	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	26.4%	20.8%	+5.6%	88	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	3	Hunter Greene (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	26.0%	17.1%	+8.9%	87	-
Best HR Chance	Christian Yelich	Milwaukee Brewers	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	1	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	26.0%	15.6%	+10.3%	86	-
Best HR Chance	Luke Raley	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	7	Nathan Eovaldi (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	25.8%	16.4%	+9.5%	86	-
Strong HR Chance	JJ Wetherholt	St. Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	1	Hunter Greene (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	25.8%	15.0%	+10.8%	86	-
Best HR Chance	Noelvi Marte	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	6	Andre Pallante (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	25.5%	10.4%	+15.0%	85	-
Best HR Chance	Cole Young	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	1	Nathan Eovaldi (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	25.0%	14.3%	+10.7%	83	-
Best HR Chance	Dominic Canzone	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	3	Nathan Eovaldi (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	24.9%	17.9%	+7.1%	83	-
Strong HR Chance	Tyler Freeman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	8	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+1000	-	24.2%	8.6%	+15.6%	81	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	100	93.8%	-1510	Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Kody Clemens, Byron Buxton	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 6.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	100	92.0%	-1144	Hunter Goodman, Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	100	91.3%	-1057	Elly De La Cruz, Jordan Walker, Sal Stewart, Alec Burleson	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.6%	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	100	85.7%	-597	Julio Rodriguez, Luke Raley, Cole Young, Dominic Canzone	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Hunter Goodman — Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (+260) HR chance 40.0% | edge +14.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.323, OPS 0.895, ISO 0.304, TB/G 2.10
Statcast: barrel 17.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.0/116.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.488
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/96 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0501, xFIP 4.53, K% 21.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.304, xERA 3.85, whiff 22.4%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.062, OPS 0.935, ISO 0.266 (130 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Cutter: xSLG 0.667, xwOBA 0.457 (22 PA)

Best HR Chance Nick Kurtz — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (+230) HR chance 35.9% | edge +7.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.217, OPS 0.902, ISO 0.231, TB/G 1.80
Statcast: barrel 18.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.6/115.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.493
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 18/92 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0409, xFIP 5.50, K% 12.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.23, whiff 19.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.969, ISO 0.267 (269 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.595, xwOBA 0.404 (27 PA)

Best HR Chance Tyler Soderstrom — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (+475) HR chance 35.8% | edge +19.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.176, OPS 0.819, ISO 0.224, TB/G 1.69
Statcast: barrel 10.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.1/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.426
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 14/91 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0409, xFIP 5.50, K% 12.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.23, whiff 19.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.037, OPS 0.863, ISO 0.228 (269 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.569, xwOBA 0.351 (11 PA)

Best HR Chance Jake Bauers — Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (+325) HR chance 34.9% | edge +12.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.192, OPS 0.840, ISO 0.223, TB/G 1.62
Statcast: barrel 13.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.6/114.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.459
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 18/94 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0499, xFIP 4.83, K% 17.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.85, whiff 24.7%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.619, K% 22.2% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.054, OPS 0.854, ISO 0.228 (279 PA)

Best HR Chance Brice Turang — Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (+525) HR chance 32.6% | edge +17.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.155, OPS 0.824, ISO 0.198, TB/G 1.80
Statcast: barrel 8.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.7/109.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.448
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 13/97 (13%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0499, xFIP 4.83, K% 17.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.85, whiff 24.7%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.235, K% 17.6% (17 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.044, OPS 0.920, ISO 0.238 (321 PA)

Best HR Chance Kody Clemens — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (+375) HR chance 32.3% | edge +12.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.200, OPS 0.774, ISO 0.240, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 12.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/108.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.445
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 16/90 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0287, xFIP 4.36, K% 17.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.352, xERA 5.34, whiff 30.1%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.048, OPS 0.714, ISO 0.210 (83 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.436, xwOBA 0.320 (32 PA)

Strong HR Chance Byron Buxton — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (+230) HR chance 31.6% | edge +3.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.317, OPS 0.893, ISO 0.291, TB/G 2.28
Statcast: barrel 18.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.9/111.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.519
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/79 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0287, xFIP 4.36, K% 17.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.352, xERA 5.34, whiff 30.1%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.041, OPS 0.756, ISO 0.176 (98 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.392, xwOBA 0.262 (21 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

⚠ Cold recent HR form

Strong HR Chance Julio Rodriguez — Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (+500) HR chance 31.2% | edge +15.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.161, OPS 0.741, ISO 0.166, TB/G 1.67
Statcast: barrel 9.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.473
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 14/93 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0445, xFIP 3.31, K% 25.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.310, xERA 4.01, whiff 30.8%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.917, K% 33.3% (24 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.027, OPS 0.705, ISO 0.139 (291 PA)

⚠ Confirmed lineup but player not listed

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Masyn Winn	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+800	1.0%	Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Ezequiel Tovar	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	+600	2.4%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Nicky Lopez	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	+1400	2.5%	Batter stats team Miami Marlins does not match game teams \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Josh Naylor	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	+600	2.5%	Cold recent HR form
Ivan Herrera	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+600	3.6%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Cold recent HR form
Edwin Arroyo	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+1100	3.9%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Batter power stats unavailable
Alejandro Osuna	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	+900	3.9%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
TJ Friedl	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+1100	3.9%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Batter power stats unavailable
Evan Carter	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	+600	4.9%	Batter power stats unavailable
Josh Smith	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	+900	4.9%	Batter stats team Houston Astros does not match game teams \| Low lineup spot (8)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Nathan Eovaldi	Bryan Woo	1.10	14.3%	42.2%	7.2%	+7.1%
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	Andre Pallante	Hunter Greene	0.93	8.6%	29.8%	9.8%	-1.1%
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	Robert Gasser	Ryan Feltner	1.08	8.0%	28.3%	5.5%	+2.5%
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	Mike Paredes	Brady Basso	0.95	6.2%	23.5%	5.3%	+0.9%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	72.9	78.5	74.0	6	Changeup (54% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 35.0%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	68.3	61.2	78.0	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	64.6	63.7	69.5	5	Split-Finger (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	59.9	58.2	68.0	6	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	59.3	68.7	52.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	58.2	57.7	64.5	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	57.1	58.8	57.5	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	56.4	53.0	63.0	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	56.3	63.3	52.0	6	Slider (44% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	55.4	52.1	61.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tim Mayza	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees	55.3	49.9	62.5	4	Slider (28% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	55.2	57.7	52.5	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	53.8	64.5	46.0	4	Slider (49% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 26.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	52.9	63.4	43.5	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	52.7	52.7	55.0	7	Changeup (36% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	51.4	46.7	59.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	51.0	48.8	55.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	50.3	43.0	55.5	5	Cutter (27% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brady Basso	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	50.2	62.7	31.5	4	Curveball (67% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	49.3	39.2	58.0	5	Slider (29% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	48.3	46.8	42.5	4	Sweeper (39% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves	47.7	48.3	49.0	5	Slider (43% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	47.4	45.1	50.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	46.4	50.0	44.5	6	Cutter (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	46.0	51.0	42.5	5	Curveball (41% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	37.5	49.7	24.5	6	Changeup (48% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	37.2	33.0	42.5	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mike Paredes	Minnesota Twins vs Athletics	35.8	35.2	33.0	4	Sweeper (28% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 13.0%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	27.9	18.0	32.0	6	Slider (22% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 12.6%, put-away 9.2%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Randy Vásquez	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	27.5	38.5	13.0	7	4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	L	18.4%	3.8	3.6	4.8	64	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Brady Basso	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	L	20.8%	1.3	-	4.9	22	short	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.3 IP/start
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.6%	4.8	5.7	5.5	80	short	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves	R	20.7%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	22.4%	6.0	5.7	5.7	101	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	22.9%	5.5	5.8	5.7	92	normal	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	R	28.4%	6.1	5.5	6.0	102	deep	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	30.0%	5.4	5.4	5.6	91	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	16.8%	5.0	5.7	5.5	84	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	17.3%	4.8	4.7	4.7	80	short	full	24.50	75.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	R	25.2%	5.5	5.4	5.4	92	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.1%	4.6	5.0	5.0	77	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	R	20.2%	6.1	6.3	6.2	102	deep	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	R	20.0%	4.4	4.8	4.9	74	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	R	24.9%	6.8	6.7	6.7	114	deep	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	R	27.9%	6.2	5.4	6.0	104	deep	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	L	21.9%	5.3	5.1	5.2	89	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Mike Paredes	Minnesota Twins vs Athletics	R	15.3%	3.8	4.4	4.8	64	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	29.3%	6.0	5.7	6.0	101	deep	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	26.1%	3.5	5.4	5.0	59	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start
Tim Mayza	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees	L	21.2%	1.2	1.4	3.8	20	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	28.8%	4.6	5.5	5.3	77	short	full	78.00	22.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Randy Vásquez	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	R	12.4%	2.9	5.0	4.6	49	short	full	13.00	87.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.9 IP/start
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	L	19.3%	5.8	5.5	5.5	97	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	R	24.4%	5.6	5.8	6.0	94	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	14.7%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	R	12.1%	4.9	5.9	5.7	82	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	R	27.8%	5.6	6.1	6.0	94	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	R	36.7%	6.8	5.8	6.0	114	deep	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	22.0%	6.4	5.9	6.0	107	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

5/5 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Robert Gasser	Robert Gasser Under	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	15.1	-2.4	13.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.2	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi Over	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Hunter Greene	Hunter Greene Under	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Andre Pallante	Andre Pallante Under	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.5	-0.9	5.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Under	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	18.5	18.0	-0.5	2.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

59 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Brice Turang	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.81	1.12	0.84	0.85	2.60 / Over	0.30	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.52	1.00	0.77	0.75	2.35 / Over	0.30	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.51	1.15	0.67	0.69	2.17 / Over	0.30	season_games=90,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Alec Burleson	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.49	1.15	0.55	0.79	2.43 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Josh Bell	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.43	0.95	0.61	0.86	2.23 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.42	0.96	0.67	0.79	2.28 / Over	0.30	season_games=91,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kody Clemens	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.39	0.95	0.67	0.77	2.20 / Over	0.30	season_games=90,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jake Bauers	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.38	0.90	0.68	0.80	2.44 / Over	0.30	season_games=94,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.36	1.03	0.62	0.71	2.17 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jordan Walker	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.32	1.10	0.57	0.65	2.69 / Over	0.30	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
JJ Wetherholt	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.32	1.12	0.78	0.41	2.21 / Over	0.30	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Noelvi Marte	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.28	1.25	0.49	0.54	2.18 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.25	1.30	0.52	0.43	2.15 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.20	1.05	0.64	0.51	2.05 / Over	0.30	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Christian Yelich	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.20	1.18	0.55	0.47	1.85 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
TJ Rumfield	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.19	1.06	0.50	0.63	2.02 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Trevor Larnach	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.19	1.13	0.57	0.49	1.78 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.13	1.07	0.60	0.46	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=83,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ivan Herrera	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.12	1.17	0.46	0.50	2.02 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jonah Heim	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.06	1.03	0.48	0.55	1.74 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Brooks Lee	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.02	0.93	0.50	0.59	2.01 / Over	0.30	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Tommy White	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.01	1.01	0.47	0.53	1.74 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Royce Lewis	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.00	1.01	0.47	0.53	1.74 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Byron Buxton	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 2.5	2.95	1.22	1.03	0.70	2.69 / Over	0.30	season_games=79,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kyle Karros	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	1.91	0.85	0.67	0.39	1.66 / Over	0.30	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes