MLB Bets 2026-07-25

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	239W–152L–0P	61%	-10.27 u	Last 14 days • 391 settled
Grade A	22W–17L–0P	56%	+0.65 u
Grade B	217W–135L–0P	62%	-10.92 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2249W–1587L–8P	59%	-146.97 u	All-time • 3844 settled
Grade A	227W–165L–0P	58%	+5.42 u
Grade B	2022W–1422L–8P	59%	-152.39 u

35 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Casey Schmitt	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Luis Arraez	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Rafael Devers	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Casey Schmitt	0.5	-386	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-468	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez	4.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Earned Run	Grayson Rodriguez	2.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Hits Allow	Logan Webb	5.5	100	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Hunter Greene	5.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Mitch Bratt	3.5	119	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Robert Gasser	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Shota Imanaga	5.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Outs	Dylan Cease	17.5	-191	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-24	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-126	-	LOSS	-1.000	Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 4, New York M
2026-07-24	K Prop	Bryce Miller	5.5	-153	-	LOSS	-1.000	Bryce Miller: 0.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-24	K Prop	Tarik Skubal	7.5	-145	-	WIN	+0.690	Tarik Skubal: 12.0 (line 7.5)
2026-07-24	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	4.5	-154	-	LOSS	-1.000	Joey Cantillo: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-152	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jordan Walker: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Burleson	1.5	-154	-	LOSS	-1.000	Alec Burleson: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-129	-	WIN	+0.775	Drake Baldwin: 3.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Juan Soto	0.5	-144	-	WIN	+0.694	Juan Soto: 2.0 (line 0.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Nicky Lopez	1.5	140	-	WIN	+1.400	Nicky Lopez: 2.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	452	57%	-0.78u	52	54%	-2.43u	211	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	400	58%	+13.85u	50	52%	-4.33u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	140	54%	-3.25u	2	50%	-0.17u	42	62%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	707	73%	-3.96u	80	81%	+5.09u	6	83%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	409	57%	-10.23u	92	50%	-14.59u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	295	59%	-13.03u	65	63%	+1.02u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	38	76%	+2.90u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	109	46%	-14.19u	7	57%	-0.06u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	3	67%	+0.43u	2	100%	+1.43u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	501	50%	-57.73u	17	53%	-1.04u	74	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	1/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 18 total candidate(s); season N 452, 14d N 52	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 400, 14d N 50	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 140, 14d N 2	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 58 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 109, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 3, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 501, 14d N 17	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 757 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 318 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 217 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 736 pitcher(s), 3236 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 561 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1614 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 662 market side(s) checked \| 662 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹ	PARTIAL	Non-blocking	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 0 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 1 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 606 \| batter bats 393 \| batter hand splits 146 \| pitcher HR splits 60 \| batter pitch-type 561 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	+149	-181	+1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	+114	-137	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	+108	-130	+1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	+100	-120	-1.5 (+167)	+1.5 (-203)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	-118	-102	-1.5 (+139)	+1.5 (-168)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	+111	-134	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-108	-112	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	+141	-171	+1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 10.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	+104	-126	+1.5 (-197)	-1.5 (+161)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	+183	-224	+1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+102	-123	-1.5 (+164)	+1.5 (-200)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	-163	+135	-1.5 (+104)	+1.5 (-126)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	-111	-108	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 5 Grade B | 127 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -132, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Shota Imanaga Over	CUB@PIR	6:41 PM	5.5	7.1	-132	Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 \| best price	29.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -159, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Hunter Greene Over	RED@CAR	7:16 PM	5.5	7.2	-159	FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 \| best price	31.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - Michael Wacha Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.1

Pitcher Outs - Sonny Gray Over

Projection: 18.8Displayed: Over 18.5 +120Market line: majority 17.5 | avg 17.83Recommended: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -145 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.83 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Selected line 18.5 is split from majority 17.5 / avg 17.83

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 (-132) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 5.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-125	-103	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-132	+103	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 29.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.62K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shota Imanaga: K/9 8.4, proj 7.1K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 58 PA | K% 32.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .125 | OPS .298
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 58 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.3%, split 25.0%, L7 31.7%, season 24.2%, BVP 32.8%/58 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.45
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -132, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Hunter Greene Over 5.5 (-159) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-159	+124	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-150	+118	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 31.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.75K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.9% / under 42.1%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hunter Greene: K/9 11.4, proj 7.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/3 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 26.6% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Slider (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 49 PA | K% 32.6% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.4%, L7 22.0%, season 20.5%, active roster 18.7%/6 hitters, BVP 32.6%/49 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.67 | Season Avg 8.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -159, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (5 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Mitch Bratt Under 3.5 (+119) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +119

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-152	+119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-146	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 34.4% vs 17% min; cushion -1.20K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.9% / under 43.1%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Mitch Bratt: K/9 7.5, proj 2.3K over 3.9 IP (season 3.6 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 12.6% | put-away% 9.2% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Slider (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 24.7%, L7 22.9%, season 21.5%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 74%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: K L10: 2/3 under 3.5

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 5.5 (-136) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+109	-141	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+107	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.7% vs 17% min; cushion -1.14K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robert Gasser: K/9 8.4, proj 4.4K over 5.4 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Cutter (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Cutter: 18.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 42.9% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 24.2%, L7 19.9%, season 22.6%, active roster 21.4%/8 hitters (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 17.5 (-191) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -191

Selected market: Over 61.3% / Under 38.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-190	+140	-
DK	17.5	-191	+141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.842 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 19.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.64 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 61.3% / under 38.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 80 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .254 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.4%, L7 21.3%, season 21.9%, BVP 27.5%/80 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 6.6%, L7 5.9%, season 8.0%, BVP 10.0%/80 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 17.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-191) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — New York Mets +1.5 1.5 (-126) edge 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig New York Mets 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -126

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig New York Mets 1.5 -122 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (27)

[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+19.43/$100
✓ Cover prob 66.6% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 13.4% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 1 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -126 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 35% (team 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 35% (team 108)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 69%, bullpen 31%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Nolan McLean elite xFIP (3.34)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto elite xFIP (3.34)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -3.251u and d14 P&L -0.167u

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-143) edge 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Kansas City Royals 1.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -143

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: MyBookie Kansas City Royals 1.5 -133 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Easton McGee (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.6 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+4.75/$100
✓ Cover prob 61.6% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 5.3% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 3/5
✓ Odds -143 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Casey Mize (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Wacha (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Comerica Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -3.251u and d14 P&L -0.167u

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (127 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 14 play(s) (B 7 | C 7)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (-104) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 7.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 7.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	7.5	-105	-125	-
DK	7.5	-104	-123	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-102	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 32.3% vs 17% min; cushion +2.42K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dylan Cease: K/9 13.4, proj 9.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 35.0% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.267 | top pitch: Changeup (54% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 34.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 80 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .254 | OPS .718
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 80 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.4%, L7 21.3%, season 21.9%, BVP 27.5%/80 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.90 | Season Avg 8.61
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 (+118) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	6.5	+118	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	6.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 23.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.52K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nathan Eovaldi: K/9 10.6, proj 8.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 23.4% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 172 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 5.2% | AVG .237 | OPS .647
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 172 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, BVP 24.4%/172 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.42
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
K% trend: support +7.2 ppts (recent 32.5% vs season 25.3%, proj adj +3.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Young Over 4.5 (+105) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	+105	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120	-
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.02K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Young: K/9 8.0, proj 5.5K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Slider (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Slider: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 21.7%, L7 24.4%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.62
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 24.0% vs season 19.0%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 6.5 (-138) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-130	+101	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	6.5	-135	+105	-
DK	6.5	-138	+108	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.84K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.7% / under 45.3%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Paul Skenes: K/9 10.6, proj 7.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 22.7% | xwOBA 0.259 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 126 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .241 | OPS .721
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 126 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.5%, L7 25.4%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.8%/7 hitters, BVP 31.8%/126 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.57
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sonny Gray Over 4.5 (-150) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-150	+117	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.6% / under 43.4%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sonny Gray: K/9 8.6, proj 4.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 119 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 12.6% | AVG .267 | OPS .821
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 119 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.2%, L7 19.0%, season 19.6%, active roster 18.5%/6 hitters, BVP 16.8%/119 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 81%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
K% trend: support +5.9 ppts (recent 28.0% vs season 22.1%, proj adj +3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bryce Elder Over 4.5 (-137) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-137	+108	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-122	-104	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.6% / under 45.4%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Elder: K/9 7.3, proj 4.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .185 | OPS .624
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.0%, L7 26.9%, season 24.2%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 4.74
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ryan Weathers Under 6.5 (-156) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	5.5	-145	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	6.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+128	-164	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.47K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 1/2 OVER (2 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.6, proj 6.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Sweeper: 38.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 40 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .368 | OPS 1.426
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.2%, L7 30.2%, season 23.9%, active roster 23.4%/8 hitters, BVP 15.0%/40 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 74%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 30.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 6.05
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andre Pallante Under 4.5 (-143) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.67K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andre Pallante: K/9 5.7, proj 3.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 147 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .227 | OPS .670
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 147 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.9%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.0%/147 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.95
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.3 ppts (recent 10.6% vs season 16.9%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Wacha Over 4.5 (-163) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.1 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 5.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-164	+125	-
DK	4.5	-163	+127	SelectedRecommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-160	-
Fanatics	5.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.63K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.5% / under 41.5%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); DK LOWER delta -0.75
Michael Wacha: K/9 7.7, proj 5.1K over 6.1 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 177 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .248 | OPS .690
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 177 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.7%, L7 22.0%, season 23.2%, BVP 15.2%/177 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nolan McLean Over 6.5 (+122) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	6.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.84K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nolan McLean: K/9 11.0, proj 7.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 20 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .053 | OPS .153
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.2%, season 20.5%, BVP 35.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.75
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Foster Griffin Over 4.5 (-128) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.53K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Foster Griffin: K/9 8.5, proj 5.0K over 6.1 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .077
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 13.9%, L7 18.4%, season 19.6% (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.55
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 121 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 (+103) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	-
DK	6.5	+103	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.5% / under 53.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 8.6, proj 7.0K over 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Split-Finger (32% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .213 | OPS .622
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 20.1%, L7 28.1%, season 22.4%, active roster 19.5%/7 hitters, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 28.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.5% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.28
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 4.5 (+111) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.18K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Feltner: K/9 6.9, proj 4.7K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.366 | top pitch: Changeup (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 110 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .514
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 110 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.0%, L7 24.4%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.4%/110 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/14 (21%) | Season 3/14 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.57
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Casey Mize Over 5.5 (-102) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-101	-128	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.17K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Casey Mize: K/9 9.5, proj 5.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Split-Finger (36% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 71 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .318 | OPS .807
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 71 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 23.0%, L7 22.2%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.1%/6 hitters, BVP 15.5%/71 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.47
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 (-101) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	18.5	-107	-125	-
DK	18.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 22.041 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 19.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.7 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.7 | pitch-count proxy 114
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .213 | OPS .622
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.1%, L7 28.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.2%, L7 10.1%, season 8.4%, BVP 4.0%/50 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.90 | Season Avg 19.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Robert Gasser Under 17.5 (-107) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-120	-113	-
DK	17.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 15.094999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.1 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 42.9% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.2%, L7 19.9%, season 22.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 7.8%, L7 6.5%, season 8.3% (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.40 | Season Avg 15.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Over 17.5 (-151) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-148	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-151	+114	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.436 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.33 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 177 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .248 | OPS .690
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.7%, L7 22.0%, season 23.2%, BVP 15.2%/177 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 10.6%, L7 6.6%, season 9.3%, BVP 6.8%/177 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nathan Eovaldi Over 17.5 (-199) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -199

Selected market: Over 62.3% / Under 37.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 62.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-197	+145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-199	+148	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 19.341 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.32 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 62.3% / under 37.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 62.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 172 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 5.2% | AVG .237 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, BVP 24.4%/172 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.9%, L7 8.1%, season 8.9%, BVP 5.2%/172 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.20 | Season Avg 18.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.84 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.84 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Foster Griffin Over 17.5 (-187) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -187

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
Caesars	17.5	-190	+139	-
DK	17.5	-187	+140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.953999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .077
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 13.9%, L7 18.4%, season 19.6% (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 8.9%, L7 12.8%, season 8.8% (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 16.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 17.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Hunter Greene Under 17.5 (+114) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +114

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-143	+108	-
DK	17.5	-152	+114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.193 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 30%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/3 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.87 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 49 PA | K% 32.6% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 19.4%, L7 22.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 32.6%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 8.4%, L7 8.1%, season 8.5%, BVP 12.2%/49 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.33 | Season Avg 16.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/3 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-103) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-122	-109	-
DK	17.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.575 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 20 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .053 | OPS .153
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.2%, season 20.5%, BVP 35.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 12.2%, L7 8.3%, season 10.3%, BVP 5.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Andre Pallante Under 17.5 (-109) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 17.5 -109; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-122	-109	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.545 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 147 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .227 | OPS .670
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.9%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.0%/147 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 8.9%, L7 7.3%, season 9.5%, BVP 9.5%/147 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 16.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Under 17.5 (-101) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-141	+106	-
DK	17.5	-132	-101	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.634 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.53 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.7%, L7 24.4%, season 21.4% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.3%, L7 6.8%, season 7.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 17.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Casey Mize Under 17.5 (-135) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	17.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.830000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.69 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 71 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .318 | OPS .807
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 23.0%, L7 22.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.5%/71 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 9.9%, L7 6.3%, season 8.4%, BVP 4.2%/71 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.60 | Season Avg 16.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 18.5 (+120) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -145 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.83 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -145 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 18.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	Recommended
Fanatics	17.5	-160	+115	-
DK	18.5	+120	-159	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.761999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 1.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.83 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 119 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 12.6% | AVG .267 | OPS .821
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 19.2%, L7 19.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 16.8%/119 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.7%, L7 5.9%, season 7.3%, BVP 12.6%/119 PA (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/18 (28%) | Season 5/18 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 16.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Under 17.5 (+120) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-173	+129	-
DK	17.5	-159	+120	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-195	+135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.283 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.15 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 126 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .241 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.5%, L7 25.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 31.8%/126 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.8%, split 11.7%, L7 12.1%, season 11.1%, BVP 12.7%/126 PA (adj 1.20x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 16.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 (+121) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +121

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-157	+117	-
DK	17.5	-161	+121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 17.332 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.94 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 58 PA | K% 32.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .125 | OPS .298
Opponent K profile: composite 27.3%, split 25.0%, L7 31.7%, season 24.2%, BVP 32.8%/58 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.9%, L7 8.3%, season 9.4%, BVP 3.5%/58 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-274) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+201	-274	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-243) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+179	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.262)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.346 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 1/10 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .650
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/99 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 36/48 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 72/99 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-248) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.258)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/43 (21%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/99 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 69/99 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-245) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -245

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -245 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+181	-245	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.279 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/100 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/50 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 76/100 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-266) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.273)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.237 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/38 (42%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/80 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 28/37 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter Hits: 56/80 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 (-268) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -268 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -268

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -268 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.257)
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.362 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 24 PA | 9/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/34 (32%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/93 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/48 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 32/45 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 68/93 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-216) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -216 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -216

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -216 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+161	-216	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.251 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/101 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 70/101 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-239) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -239

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.300)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.321 (59 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/44 (30%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/97 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/47 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 33/50 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter Hits: 67/97 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 58 play(s) (C 58)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+105) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.692 (64 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 54/104 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+123) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.405 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter TB: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+105) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.17
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/98 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 46/98 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+116) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.667 (22 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/96 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter TB: 42/96 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-104) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter TB: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+115) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (54 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+129) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.593 (22 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .612
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/83 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/40 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 41/83 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+113) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.241 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-198) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (58 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 65/95 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 65/95 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-113) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.466 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+133) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.632 (35 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.750 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/104 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 41/104 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+104) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.429 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/95 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 41/95 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+122) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 17 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .235
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/97 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 42/97 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+105) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (45 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-104) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/80 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter TB: 13/37 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 34/80 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+115) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/100 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 42/100 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-187) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/100 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 69/100 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (+114) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.424 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/86 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 13/41 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 33/86 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-190) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (13 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 61/91 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 26/42 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 61/91 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+104) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/95 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 44/95 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-105) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/99 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 49/99 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+107) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/104 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 43/104 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-147) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.462 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 1/10 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .650
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/99 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 31/48 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 64/99 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+139) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter TB: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+115) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+150) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.329 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/90 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 42/90 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+119) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (60 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/102 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 41/102 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+133) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/102 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 39/102 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-178) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/99 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 67/99 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Under 1.5 (-172) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.207 (40 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 31 PA | 7/26 | HR 1 | K% 6.5% | BB% 16.1% | OPS .810
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/73 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/45 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 43/73 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+133) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-176) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/83 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/38 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 34/45 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 57/83 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+132) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/98 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 39/98 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+116) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 36.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/96 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 40/96 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+131) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+101) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+142) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+142	-191	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+150) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+117) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+125) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+132) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.454 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.225
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/100 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/52 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 38/100 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-182) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.434 (56 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 68/102 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-189) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/98 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 31/48 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 62/98 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+147) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+113) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (63 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 23 PA | 4/20 | HR 0 | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .461
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+150) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+147	-200	-
DK	1.5	+150	-202	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/99 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 40/99 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+138) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+148) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+145) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+120) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.176 (42 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/101 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 15/49 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 36/101 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (+132) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/101 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter TB: 16/54 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 38/101 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+106) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.294 (60 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/100 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 39/100 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+143) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .909
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/98 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 46/98 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+145) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-144) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.281 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 30/46 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 60/101 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (+126) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.3% / Under 58.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+126	-169	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.548 (45 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 21 PA | 4/17 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .793
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/97 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 36/97 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+100) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.247 (67 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/103 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 39/103 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-118) edge 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -118

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-118	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-120	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-112	-	RecommendedRaw Best
BetUS	7.5	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-120	-	-
DK	7.5	-118	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-122	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-118	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-117	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] Will Dion (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nick Martinez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Tanner Bibee (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-112) edge 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -112

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-110	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-114	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-	-
DK	7.5	-112	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-122	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-107	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-111	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Nathan Eovaldi elite xFIP (3.32)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Under 10.5 10.5 (-114) edge 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 10.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 10.5 -114

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A | selected line 10.5

Line distribution: 10.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 10.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 10.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	10.5	-	-118	-
BetRivers	10.5	-	-113	-
Bovada Direct	10.5	-	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	10.5	-	-114	Selected
FanDuel	10.5	-	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	10.5	-	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 10.5
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Target Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 52%, bullpen 48%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Mason Barnett small sample (21 IP) — stats 26% actual / 74% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 6.0 6.0 (-115) edge 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | selected line 6 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 6 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 6.0
F5 total source: Bovada Direct (DK unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.33
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 101)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High F5 edge 21% (≥18%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

▸ NRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-156) edge 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -156

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Paul Skenes: xFIP 3.15, K% 28.7%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.259, whiff% 27.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.287, K% 36.0%, BB% 8.1%, whiff% 30.1%
Shota Imanaga: xFIP 3.94, K% 22.9%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 28.1% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.255, K% 34.2%, BB% 7.3%, whiff% 36.9%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 106)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.19
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Paul Skenes: 71% (21 starts) | Shota Imanaga: 75% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -156 | implied 60.9% | model edge +23.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +122 | implied 45.0% | model edge -14.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 7.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 7.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 24% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-142) edge 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -142

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Nathan Eovaldi: xFIP 3.32, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 30.8% | 1st inn full (81 PA): xwOBA 0.345, K% 29.6%, BB% 4.9%, whiff% 31.0%
Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.71, K% 24.4%, BB% 4.9%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 24.9% | 1st inn full (77 PA): xwOBA 0.273, K% 29.9%, BB% 5.2%, whiff% 27.7%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 100)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.83
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
NRFI rate: Nathan Eovaldi: 63% (19 starts) | Bryan Woo: 90% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 37-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.288 vs SP's top pitch) | Texas Rangers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.282 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +18.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge -9.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-132) edge 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Casey Mize: xFIP 3.69, K% 25.9%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 29.1% | 1st inn full (54 PA): xwOBA 0.236, K% 27.8%, BB% 7.4%, whiff% 29.5%
Michael Wacha: xFIP 4.33, K% 20.8%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (80 PA): xwOBA 0.296, K% 23.8%, BB% 7.5%, whiff% 17.7%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Casey Mize: 100% (15 starts) | Michael Wacha: 85% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.255 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +9.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -0.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-156) edge 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -156

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.68, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.9%, xwOBA 0.296, whiff% 21.8% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.246, K% 25.3%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 23.7%
Dylan Cease: xFIP 2.64, K% 36.3%, BB% 10.5%, xwOBA 0.267, whiff% 35.0% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.317, K% 36.7%, BB% 12.7%, whiff% 30.1%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 99)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.74
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Sonny Gray: 61% (18 starts) | Dylan Cease: 61% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.265 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -156 | implied 60.9% | model edge +9.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +122 | implied 45.0% | model edge -0.1%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Sean Burke: xFIP 3.85, K% 28.4%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.293, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn full (64 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 25.0%, BB% 3.1%, whiff% 14.8%
Hunter Brown: xFIP 4.40, K% 21.1%, BB% 12.2%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 26.4% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 34.3%, BB% 8.6%, whiff% 27.8%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.78
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Sean Burke: 69% (16 starts) | Hunter Brown: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +8.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +1.1%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-142) edge 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -142

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.34, K% 29.4%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.286, whiff% 25.1% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 31.7%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 21.0%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: xFIP 3.34, K% 24.9%, BB% 5.5%, xwOBA 0.279, whiff% 26.5% | 1st inn full (70 PA): xwOBA 0.288, K% 22.9%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 22.0%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 108)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.87
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Nolan McLean: 70% (20 starts) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 72% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.336 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +6.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge +2.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Eury Pérez: xFIP 3.98, K% 28.8%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.311, whiff% 29.5% | 1st inn full (68 PA): xwOBA 0.312, K% 30.9%, BB% 5.9%, whiff% 34.4%
JP Sears: xFIP 4.26, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (18 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 11.1%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 9.7%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.52 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Eury Pérez: 65% (17 starts) | JP Sears: 80% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.291 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.252 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +2.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +6.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-102) edge -6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Brandon Young: xFIP 4.53, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 22.9% | 1st inn full (72 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 22.2%, BB% 8.3%, whiff% 20.8%
Bryce Elder: xFIP 4.12, K% 18.6%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.284, K% 24.4%, BB% 12.2%, whiff% 24.6%
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.94
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Brandon Young: 69% (16 starts) | Bryce Elder: 79% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch) | Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -6.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +15.1%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-104) edge -6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Foster Griffin: xFIP 3.61, K% 23.9%, BB% 5.7%, xwOBA 0.305, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.291, K% 30.9%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 24.0%
Mitch Bratt: xFIP 4.48, K% 18.7%, BB% 8.9%, xwOBA 0.351, whiff% 12.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (12 PA): xwOBA 0.357, K% 8.3%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 12.0%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.01 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.82
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Foster Griffin: 85% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -6.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +15.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+120) edge -7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +120

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Mason Barnett: xFIP 4.33, K% 17.8%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.347, whiff% 20.4%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.06
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
All-game streak: 44-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds +120 | implied 45.5% | model edge -7.4%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -150 | implied 60.0% | model edge +8.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-106) edge -9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Robert Gasser: xFIP 4.42, K% 21.9%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.209, K% 30.2%, BB% 14.0%, whiff% 18.6%
Ryan Feltner: xFIP 4.72, K% 17.3%, BB% 9.6%, xwOBA 0.366, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.396, K% 17.7%, BB% 9.7%, whiff% 24.5%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.87
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Robert Gasser: 60% (10 starts) | Ryan Feltner: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -9.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +18.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-102) edge -10.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.31, K% 26.0%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.328, whiff% 28.6% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.364, K% 24.4%, BB% 5.8%, whiff% 27.2%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 98)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.79
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Ryan Weathers: 63% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 29-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.242 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -10.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +11.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-136) edge -12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -136

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Andre Pallante: xFIP 4.14, K% 14.7%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.299, whiff% 20.9% | 1st inn full (85 PA): xwOBA 0.375, K% 14.1%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 17.1%
Hunter Greene: xFIP 3.87, K% 30.1%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 27.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (13 PA): xwOBA 0.429, K% 46.2%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 40.7%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 1.00
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Andre Pallante: 63% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.285 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge -12.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge +21.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-113) edge -14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Robbie Ray: xFIP 4.84, K% 19.4%, BB% 11.6%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.310, K% 21.5%, BB% 10.1%, whiff% 23.0%
Ryan Johnson: xFIP 4.60, K% 21.5%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.397, K% 17.1%, BB% 14.3%, whiff% 28.1%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.72 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.04
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Robbie Ray: 79% (19 starts) | Ryan Johnson: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.337 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -14.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +23.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge -26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Nick Martinez: xFIP 4.72, K% 12.7%, BB% 4.4%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 17.7% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.304, K% 17.1%, BB% 6.6%, whiff% 15.4%
Tanner Bibee: xFIP 4.33, K% 16.6%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.378, K% 18.9%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 22.0%
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 103)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.74
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Nick Martinez: 90% (19 starts) | Tanner Bibee: 67% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.266 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -26.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +35.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Nick Martinez: xFIP 4.72, K% 12.7%, BB% 4.4%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 17.7% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.304, K% 17.1%, BB% 6.6%, whiff% 15.4%
Tanner Bibee: xFIP 4.33, K% 16.6%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.378, K% 18.9%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 22.0%
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 103)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.74
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Nick Martinez: 90% (19 starts) | Tanner Bibee: 67% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.266 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -26.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +35.0%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 35% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-113) edge 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Robbie Ray: xFIP 4.84, K% 19.4%, BB% 11.6%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.310, K% 21.5%, BB% 10.1%, whiff% 23.0%
Ryan Johnson: xFIP 4.60, K% 21.5%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.397, K% 17.1%, BB% 14.3%, whiff% 28.1%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.72 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.04
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Robbie Ray: 79% (19 starts) | Ryan Johnson: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.337 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -14.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +23.2%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 23% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+106) edge 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +106

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Andre Pallante: xFIP 4.14, K% 14.7%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.299, whiff% 20.9% | 1st inn full (85 PA): xwOBA 0.375, K% 14.1%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 17.1%
Hunter Greene: xFIP 3.87, K% 30.1%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 27.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (13 PA): xwOBA 0.429, K% 46.2%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 40.7%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 1.00
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Andre Pallante: 63% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.285 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge -12.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge +21.5%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 21% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Robert Gasser: xFIP 4.42, K% 21.9%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.209, K% 30.2%, BB% 14.0%, whiff% 18.6%
Ryan Feltner: xFIP 4.72, K% 17.3%, BB% 9.6%, xwOBA 0.366, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.396, K% 17.7%, BB% 9.7%, whiff% 24.5%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.87
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Robert Gasser: 60% (10 starts) | Ryan Feltner: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -9.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +18.6%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-122) edge 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Foster Griffin: xFIP 3.61, K% 23.9%, BB% 5.7%, xwOBA 0.305, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.291, K% 30.9%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 24.0%
Mitch Bratt: xFIP 4.48, K% 18.7%, BB% 8.9%, xwOBA 0.351, whiff% 12.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (12 PA): xwOBA 0.357, K% 8.3%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 12.0%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.01 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.82
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Foster Griffin: 85% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -6.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +15.8%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-125) edge 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Brandon Young: xFIP 4.53, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 22.9% | 1st inn full (72 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 22.2%, BB% 8.3%, whiff% 20.8%
Bryce Elder: xFIP 4.12, K% 18.6%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.284, K% 24.4%, BB% 12.2%, whiff% 24.6%
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.94
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Brandon Young: 69% (16 starts) | Bryce Elder: 79% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch) | Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -6.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +15.1%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-125) edge 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.31, K% 26.0%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.328, whiff% 28.6% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.364, K% 24.4%, BB% 5.8%, whiff% 27.2%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 98)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.79
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Ryan Weathers: 63% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 29-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.242 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -10.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +11.6%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-150) edge 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -150

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Mason Barnett: xFIP 4.33, K% 17.8%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.347, whiff% 20.4%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.06
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
All-game streak: 44-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds +120 | implied 45.5% | model edge -7.4%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -150 | implied 60.0% | model edge +8.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Eury Pérez: xFIP 3.98, K% 28.8%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.311, whiff% 29.5% | 1st inn full (68 PA): xwOBA 0.312, K% 30.9%, BB% 5.9%, whiff% 34.4%
JP Sears: xFIP 4.26, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (18 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 11.1%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 9.7%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.52 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Eury Pérez: 65% (17 starts) | JP Sears: 80% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.291 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.252 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +2.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +6.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+112) edge 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +112

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.34, K% 29.4%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.286, whiff% 25.1% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 31.7%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 21.0%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: xFIP 3.34, K% 24.9%, BB% 5.5%, xwOBA 0.279, whiff% 26.5% | 1st inn full (70 PA): xwOBA 0.288, K% 22.9%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 22.0%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 108)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.87
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Nolan McLean: 70% (20 starts) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 72% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.336 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +6.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge +2.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Sean Burke: xFIP 3.85, K% 28.4%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.293, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn full (64 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 25.0%, BB% 3.1%, whiff% 14.8%
Hunter Brown: xFIP 4.40, K% 21.1%, BB% 12.2%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 26.4% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 34.3%, BB% 8.6%, whiff% 27.8%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.78
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Sean Burke: 69% (16 starts) | Hunter Brown: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +8.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +1.1%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+122) edge -0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +122

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.68, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.9%, xwOBA 0.296, whiff% 21.8% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.246, K% 25.3%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 23.7%
Dylan Cease: xFIP 2.64, K% 36.3%, BB% 10.5%, xwOBA 0.267, whiff% 35.0% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.317, K% 36.7%, BB% 12.7%, whiff% 30.1%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 99)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.74
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Sonny Gray: 61% (18 starts) | Dylan Cease: 61% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.265 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -156 | implied 60.9% | model edge +9.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +122 | implied 45.0% | model edge -0.1%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+104) edge -0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Casey Mize: xFIP 3.69, K% 25.9%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 29.1% | 1st inn full (54 PA): xwOBA 0.236, K% 27.8%, BB% 7.4%, whiff% 29.5%
Michael Wacha: xFIP 4.33, K% 20.8%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (80 PA): xwOBA 0.296, K% 23.8%, BB% 7.5%, whiff% 17.7%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Casey Mize: 100% (15 starts) | Michael Wacha: 85% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.255 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +9.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -0.3%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+112) edge -9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +112

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Nathan Eovaldi: xFIP 3.32, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 30.8% | 1st inn full (81 PA): xwOBA 0.345, K% 29.6%, BB% 4.9%, whiff% 31.0%
Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.71, K% 24.4%, BB% 4.9%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 24.9% | 1st inn full (77 PA): xwOBA 0.273, K% 29.9%, BB% 5.2%, whiff% 27.7%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 100)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.83
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
NRFI rate: Nathan Eovaldi: 63% (19 starts) | Bryan Woo: 90% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 37-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.288 vs SP's top pitch) | Texas Rangers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.282 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +18.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge -9.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+122) edge -14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +122

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Paul Skenes: xFIP 3.15, K% 28.7%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.259, whiff% 27.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.287, K% 36.0%, BB% 8.1%, whiff% 30.1%
Shota Imanaga: xFIP 3.94, K% 22.9%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 28.1% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.255, K% 34.2%, BB% 7.3%, whiff% 36.9%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 106)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.19
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Paul Skenes: 71% (21 starts) | Shota Imanaga: 75% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -156 | implied 60.9% | model edge +23.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +122 | implied 45.0% | model edge -14.9%

GAME BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-118	51.7%	70.0%	+18.3%	$+29.31	9	Bet on DK
C	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-112	50.4%	67.6%	+17.2%	$+28.02	9	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	Total	Under 10.5	-114	51.0%	67.9%	+16.9%	$+27.41	5	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (Total) +18.3%

[INJ] Will Dion (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nick Martinez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Tanner Bibee (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (Total) +17.2%

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Nathan Eovaldi elite xFIP (3.32)

C Under 10.5 — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (Total) +16.9%

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 10.5
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Target Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 52%, bullpen 48%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Mason Barnett small sample (21 IP) — stats 26% actual / 74% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 6.0	-115	50.0%	71.0%	+21.0%	$+32.80	—	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (1 play(s))

C Under 6.0 — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5) (F5 Total) +21.0%

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 6.0
F5 total source: Bovada Direct (DK unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.33
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 101)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (15 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Paul Skenes / Shota Imanaga	7.4 / 7.7	2.6 / 7.7	+23.9%	Score 7.4 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Nathan Eovaldi / Bryan Woo	6.7 / 7.7	3.3 / 7.7	+18.6%	Score 6.7 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	Sonny Gray / Dylan Cease	6.1 / 7.7	3.9 / 7.7	+9.1%	Score 6.1 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	Casey Mize / Michael Wacha	5.8 / 7.7	4.2 / 7.7	+9.3%	Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	Nolan McLean / Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.7 / 7.7	4.3 / 7.7	+6.4%	Score 5.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 6.4% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	Sean Burke / Hunter Brown	5.5 / 7.7	4.5 / 7.7	+8.0%	Score 5.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 8.0% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	Eury Pérez / JP Sears	5.0 / 7.7	5.0 / 7.7	+2.7%	Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 2.7% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (18 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	Andre Pallante / Hunter Greene	3.9 / 7.7	6.1 / 7.7	-12.7%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -12.7% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (13 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	Brandon Young / Bryce Elder	3.9 / 7.7	6.1 / 7.7	-6.1%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -6.1% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	Foster Griffin / Mitch Bratt	3.9 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-6.7%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -6.7% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (12 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	Robert Gasser / Ryan Feltner	3.6 / 7.7	6.4 / 7.7	-9.6%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -9.6% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	TBD / Ryan Weathers ⚠ Home SP	3.5 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-10.7%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -10.7% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	Robbie Ray / Ryan Johnson	3.4 / 7.7	6.6 / 7.7	-14.3%	Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -14.3% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	TBD / Mason Barnett ⚠ Home SP	3.3 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-7.4%	Score 3.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -7.4% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	Nick Martinez / Tanner Bibee	2.5 / 7.7	7.5 / 7.7	-26.1%	Score 2.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -26.1% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 0 batter line(s)
Market discovery: no extra HR markets returned
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

No batter HR chances clear the watchlist tier.

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	100	90.9%	-999	-	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	100	89.7%	-868	-	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	100	88.5%	-770	-	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	100	88.1%	-741	-	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 \| Wind 17 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	100	87.0%	-666	-	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	99	86.9%	-662	-	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	99	86.4%	-634	-	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	99	86.2%	-627	-	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	99	86.2%	-625	-	PNC Park HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	93	85.7%	-600	-	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-
Watchlist	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	93	85.5%	-588	-	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	92	84.7%	-552	-	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	90	82.8%	-480	-	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	90	82.7%	-479	-	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	89	81.7%	-447	-	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	Sonny Gray	Dylan Cease	0.95	18.3%	49.3%	—	—
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	Nolan McLean	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	0.93	17.3%	47.6%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	Casey Mize	Michael Wacha	0.91	17.2%	47.6%	—	—
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	Sean Burke	Hunter Brown	1.00	15.3%	44.1%	—	—
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	Brandon Young	Bryce Elder	1.00	14.5%	42.6%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	Nick Martinez	Tanner Bibee	0.94	14.3%	42.1%	—	—
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Paul Skenes	Shota Imanaga	0.96	13.8%	41.1%	—	—
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	Eury Pérez	JP Sears	0.88	13.8%	41.1%	—	—
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	Andre Pallante	Hunter Greene	0.93	13.6%	40.8%	—	—
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	None	Ryan Weathers	1.10	13.1%	39.8%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Nathan Eovaldi	Bryan Woo	1.10	13.1%	39.6%	—	—
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	Robbie Ray	Ryan Johnson	0.82	11.9%	37.2%	—	—
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	None	Mason Barnett	0.95	11.5%	36.4%	—	—
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	Robert Gasser	Ryan Feltner	1.08	10.3%	33.8%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	Foster Griffin	Mitch Bratt	1.02	9.1%	30.9%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	72.9	78.5	74.0	6	Changeup (54% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 35.0%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	68.3	61.2	78.0	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	64.6	63.7	69.5	5	Split-Finger (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	59.9	58.2	68.0	6	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	59.3	68.7	52.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	58.2	57.7	64.5	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	57.1	58.8	57.5	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	56.4	53.0	63.0	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	56.3	63.3	52.0	6	Slider (44% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	55.4	52.1	61.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	55.2	57.7	52.5	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	53.8	64.5	46.0	4	Slider (49% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 26.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	52.9	63.4	43.5	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	52.7	52.7	55.0	7	Changeup (36% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	51.4	47.0	59.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	51.0	48.8	55.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	50.3	43.0	55.5	5	Cutter (27% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	49.3	39.2	58.0	5	Slider (29% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	48.3	46.8	42.5	4	Sweeper (39% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves	47.7	48.3	49.0	5	Slider (43% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	47.4	45.1	50.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	46.4	50.0	44.5	6	Cutter (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	46.0	51.0	42.5	5	Curveball (41% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	42.7	47.9	39.0	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	38.7	44.8	34.0	5	Slider (27% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	37.5	49.7	24.5	6	Changeup (48% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	37.2	33.0	42.5	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	27.9	18.0	32.0	6	Slider (22% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 12.6%, put-away 9.2%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	L	18.7%	3.4	3.6	4.8	57	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	R	17.8%	1.4	-	4.9	24	short	full	34.00	66.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.6%	4.8	5.7	5.5	80	short	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves	R	20.7%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	24.1%	6.4	5.7	6.0	107	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	22.9%	5.5	5.8	5.7	92	normal	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	R	28.4%	6.1	5.5	6.0	102	deep	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	30.0%	5.4	5.4	5.6	91	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	16.6%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	17.3%	4.8	4.7	4.7	80	short	full	24.50	75.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	R	25.9%	5.3	5.4	5.4	89	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.1%	4.6	5.0	5.0	77	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	R	20.8%	6.1	6.3	6.2	102	deep	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	R	21.4%	5.0	4.8	5.0	84	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	R	24.9%	6.8	6.7	6.7	114	deep	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	R	28.8%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	L	21.9%	5.3	5.1	5.2	89	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	29.3%	6.0	5.7	6.0	101	deep	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	26.0%	4.1	5.4	5.1	69	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	28.7%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	78.00	22.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.1%
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	L	20.7%	4.7	4.9	5.2	79	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	L	19.4%	6.2	5.5	5.6	104	deep	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	R	24.4%	5.6	5.8	6.0	94	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	14.7%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	R	12.7%	5.5	5.9	5.8	92	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	R	27.8%	5.6	6.1	6.0	94	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	R	36.3%	6.1	5.8	6.0	102	deep	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	23.9%	6.6	5.9	6.0	111	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

14/14 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	20.8	3.3	19.1%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	18.5	22.0	3.5	19.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.7	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) \| books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
Robert Gasser	Robert Gasser Under	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	15.1	-2.4	13.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.2	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	19.4	1.9	11.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi Over	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	17.5	19.3	1.8	10.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.84 <= 3 min
Foster Griffin	Foster Griffin Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	17.5	19.0	1.4	8.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Hunter Greene	Hunter Greene Under	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Andre Pallante	Andre Pallante Under	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.5	-0.9	5.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.6	-0.9	5.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Casey Mize	Casey Mize Under	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	16.8	-0.7	3.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	18.5	18.8	0.3	1.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Under	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes