| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 452 | 57% | -0.78u | 52 | 54% | -2.43u | 211 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 400 | 58% | +13.85u | 50 | 52% | -4.33u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 140 | 54% | -3.25u | 2 | 50% | -0.17u | 42 | 62% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 707 | 73% | -3.96u | 80 | 81% | +5.09u | 6 | 83% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 409 | 57% | -10.23u | 92 | 50% | -14.59u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 295 | 59% | -13.03u | 65 | 63% | +1.02u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 38 | 76% | +2.90u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 109 | 46% | -14.19u | 7 | 57% | -0.06u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 3 | 67% | +0.43u | 2 | 100% | +1.43u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 501 | 50% | -57.73u | 17 | 53% | -1.04u | 74 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 1/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | 72.9 | 78.5 | 74.0 | 6 | Changeup (54% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 35.0%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | 68.3 | 61.2 | 78.0 | 7 | Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 64.6 | 63.7 | 69.5 | 5 | Split-Finger (36% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets | 59.9 | 58.2 | 68.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | 59.3 | 68.7 | 52.5 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.2 | 57.7 | 64.5 | 7 | Curveball (39% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.1 | 58.8 | 57.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | 56.4 | 53.0 | 63.0 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres | 56.3 | 63.3 | 52.0 | 6 | Slider (44% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | 55.4 | 52.1 | 61.0 | 6 | Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | 55.2 | 57.7 | 52.5 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | 53.8 | 64.5 | 46.0 | 4 | Slider (49% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 26.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies | 52.9 | 63.4 | 43.5 | 5 | Sweeper (44% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.7 | 52.7 | 55.0 | 7 | Changeup (36% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | 51.4 | 47.0 | 59.5 | 6 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | 51.0 | 48.8 | 55.5 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | 50.3 | 43.0 | 55.5 | 5 | Cutter (27% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | 49.3 | 39.2 | 58.0 | 5 | Slider (29% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | 48.3 | 46.8 | 42.5 | 4 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves | 47.7 | 48.3 | 49.0 | 5 | Slider (43% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | 47.4 | 45.1 | 50.0 | 6 | Changeup (29% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | 46.4 | 50.0 | 44.5 | 6 | Cutter (34% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels | 46.0 | 51.0 | 42.5 | 5 | Curveball (41% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | 42.7 | 47.9 | 39.0 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mason Barnett | Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | 38.7 | 44.8 | 34.0 | 5 | Slider (27% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | 37.5 | 49.7 | 24.5 | 6 | Changeup (48% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | 37.2 | 33.0 | 42.5 | 6 | Changeup (34% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | 27.9 | 18.0 | 32.0 | 6 | Slider (22% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 12.6%, put-away 9.2%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | L | 18.7% | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 57 | short | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.4 IP/start |
| Mason Barnett | Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | R | 17.8% | 1.4 | - | 4.9 | 24 | short | full | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.4 IP/start |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 18.6% | 4.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 80 | short | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves | R | 20.7% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 97 | normal | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 24.1% | 6.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 107 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 22.9% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | R | 28.4% | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 30.0% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 16.6% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 97 | normal | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.0% |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 17.3% | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 80 | short | full | 24.50 | 75.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | R | 25.9% | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 69.50 | 30.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | R | 21.1% | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 77 | short | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | R | 20.8% | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 102 | deep | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | R | 21.4% | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets | R | 24.9% | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 114 | deep | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres | R | 28.8% | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 96 | normal | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | L | 21.9% | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 29.3% | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 26.0% | 4.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 69 | short | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | R | 28.7% | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 78.00 | 22.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | L | 20.7% | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 79 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 19.4% | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 104 | deep | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | R | 24.4% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 14.7% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 12.7% | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | R | 27.8% | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | R | 36.3% | 6.1 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 74.00 | 26.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 23.9% | 6.6 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 111 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Dylan Cease Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 20.8 | 3.3 | 19.1% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | 18.5 | 22.0 | 3.5 | 19.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.7 | 114 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree |
| Robert Gasser | Robert Gasser Under | Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | 17.5 | 15.1 | -2.4 | 13.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.2 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min |
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Over | Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 19.4 | 1.9 | 11.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Nathan Eovaldi Over | Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 10.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.84 <= 3 min |
| Foster Griffin | Foster Griffin Over | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.4 | 8.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Hunter Greene | Hunter Greene Under | Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 16.2 | -1.3 | 7.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Andre Pallante | Andre Pallante Under | Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 16.5 | -0.9 | 5.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Brandon Young | Brandon Young Under | Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 16.6 | -0.9 | 5.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Casey Mize | Casey Mize Under | Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 16.8 | -0.7 | 3.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | 18.5 | 18.8 | 0.3 | 1.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Paul Skenes | Paul Skenes Under | Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shota Imanaga | Shota Imanaga Under | Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ Featured | ⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -132, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Over | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 7.1 | -132 | Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 | best price | 29.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -159, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Hunter Greene Over | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 7.2 | -159 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 | best price | 31.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Mitch Bratt Under | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 3.5 | 2.3 | +119 | DK Under 3.5 +119 | exact | 34.4% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks | K Prop | Robert Gasser Under | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -136 | DK Under 5.5 -136 | exact | 20.7% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Outs | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 20.8 | -191 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price | 19.1% | ✓✓✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | Run Line | New York Mets +1.5 | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | - | -126 | LowVig New York Mets 1.5 -122 | best price | +13.4% | –✓✓!–✓ | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | Run Line | Kansas City Royals +1.5 | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | - | -143 | MyBookie Kansas City Royals 1.5 -133 | best price | +5.3% | –!✓!–✓ | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 7.5 | 9.9 | -104 | BetOnline Over 7.5 +100 | best price | 32.3% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Nathan Eovaldi Over | MAR@RAN | 7:16 PM | 6.5 | 8.0 | +118 | DK Over 6.5 +118 | exact | 23.4% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Brandon Young Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | +105 | DK Over 4.5 +105 | exact | 22.7% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andre Pallante Under | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | -143 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -138 | best price | 14.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -163 | DK Over 4.5 -163 | exact | 14.1% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Over | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | +122 | DK Over 6.5 +122 | exact | 12.9% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Foster Griffin Over | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -128 | Fanatics Over 4.5 -125 | best price | 11.8% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | 6.5 | 7.0 | +103 | DK Over 6.5 +103 | exact | 7.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Feltner Over | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +111 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | best price | 3.9% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Casey Mize Over | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -102 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 3.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Outs | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | 18.5 | 22.0 | -101 | DK Over 18.5 -101 | exact | 19.1% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Robert Gasser Under | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.1 | -107 | DK Under 17.5 -107 | exact | 13.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.4 | -151 | Caesars Over 17.5 -148 | best price | 11.1% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.84 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nathan Eovaldi Over | MAR@RAN | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 19.3 | -199 | Caesars Over 17.5 -197 | best price | 10.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Foster Griffin Over | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 17.5 | 19.0 | -187 | DK Over 17.5 -187 | exact | 8.3% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Hunter Greene Under | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 16.2 | +114 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115 | best price | 7.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Over | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -103 | DK Over 17.5 -103 | exact | 6.1% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Andre Pallante Under | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | -109 | DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Young Under | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 16.6 | -101 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 5.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Casey Mize Under | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.8 | -135 | Caesars Under 17.5 -134 | best price | 3.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Over | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 18.5 | 18.8 | +120 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -145 | alt rescue | 1.4% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Paul Skenes Under | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | +120 | Fanatics Under 17.5 +135 | best price | 1.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shota Imanaga Under | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | +121 | DK Under 17.5 +121 | exact | 1.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Jackson Chourio Under | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -274 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price | 40.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -243 | DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact | 38.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Ketel Marte Under | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -248 | DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact | 32.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Kevin McGonigle Under | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -245 | DK Under 1.5 -245 | exact | 30.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Drake Baldwin Under | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -266 | DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact | 30.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Julio Rodriguez Under | MAR@RAN | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -268 | DK Under 1.5 -268 | exact | 30.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Ernie Clement Under | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -216 | DK Under 1.5 -216 | exact | 29.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Michael Harris II Under | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -239 | DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact | 23.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | James Wood Over | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | +105 | DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact | 60.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | CJ Abrams Over | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +123 | DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact | 47.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ben Rice Over | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +105 | DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact | 44.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Hunter Goodman Over | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +116 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price | 44.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Matt Olson Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -104 | DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact | 41.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jordan Walker Over | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +115 | DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact | 41.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Elly De La Cruz Over | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +129 | DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact | 36.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kyle Schwarber Over | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +113 | DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact | 33.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Masyn Winn Under | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -198 | DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact | 31.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Michael Harris II Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -113 | DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact | 31.4% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Bryce Harper Over | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +133 | DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact | 26.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Dillon Dingler Over | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +104 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price | 25.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Brice Turang Over | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +122 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price | 24.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Alec Burleson Over | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +105 | DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact | 23.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Drake Baldwin Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -104 | DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact | 23.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Corbin Carroll Over | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +115 | DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact | 21.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Geraldo Perdomo Under | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -187 | DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact | 20.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Curtis Mead Over | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +114 | DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact | 20.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Daulton Varsho Under | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -190 | Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price | 19.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Shohei Ohtani Over | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +104 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price | 19.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ketel Marte Over | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -105 | DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact | 19.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Pete Alonso Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +107 | DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact | 18.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -147 | Caesars Under 1.5 -145 | best price | 16.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Freddie Freeman Over | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +139 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price | 15.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ozzie Albies Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +115 | Caesars Over 1.5 +116 | best price | 13.6% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jake McCarthy Over | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +150 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price | 12.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Sal Stewart Over | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +119 | DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact | 12.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Daylen Lile Over | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +133 | Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Alec Bohm Under | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -178 | Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price | 9.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | George Springer Under | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -172 | Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price | 9.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Andy Pages Over | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +133 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Trent Grisham Under | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -176 | Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price | 8.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | JJ Wetherholt Over | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +132 | Caesars Over 1.5 +133 | best price | 7.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | William Contreras Over | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +116 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price | 7.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Cole Carrigg Over | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +131 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price | 7.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jackson Chourio Over | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +101 | DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact | 7.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Christian Yelich Over | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +142 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price | 7.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Andrew Vaughn Over | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +150 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price | 7.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Gabriel Moreno Over | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +117 | DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Dylan Crews Over | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +125 | DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Wilyer Abreu Over | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +132 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price | 7.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ivan Herrera Under | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -182 | DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact | 6.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nolan Arenado Under | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -189 | DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Mookie Betts Over | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +147 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Riley Greene Over | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +113 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Mauricio Dubon Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +150 | DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact | 4.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Paul Goldschmidt Over | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +138 | DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact | 4.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Colt Keith Over | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +148 | DK Over 1.5 +148 | exact | 3.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Gleyber Torres Over | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +145 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Trea Turner Over | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +120 | DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact | 2.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | JJ Bleday Over | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +130 | Caesars Over 1.5 +132 | best price | 2.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Cody Bellinger Over | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +132 | DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact | 1.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kevin McGonigle Over | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +106 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price | 1.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ceddanne Rafaela Over | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +143 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price | 1.4% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nathan Lukes Over | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +145 | DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact | 1.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ernie Clement Under | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -144 | Fanatics Under 1.5 -125 | best price | 1.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Spencer Steer Over | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +126 | DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact | 1.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Gunnar Henderson Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +100 | DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact | 0.6% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Total | Over 7.5 | GUA@RAY | 6:11 PM | 7.5 | - | -118 | BetRivers Over 7.5 -112 | best price | +18.3% | –✓–––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Total | Over 7.5 | MAR@RAN | 7:16 PM | 7.5 | - | -112 | LowVig Over 7.5 -107 | best price | +17.2% | –✓–––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Total | Under 10.5 | ATH@TWI | 7:11 PM | 10.5 | - | -114 | FanDuel Under 10.5 -110 | best price | +16.9% | –✓–––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | F5 Total | Under 6.0 | ATH@TWI | 7:11 PM | 6.0 | - | -115 | Bovada Direct Under 6 -115 | exact | +21.0% | –✓!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 7.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | - | 7.4 | -156 | DraftKings -156 | +23.9% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | MAR@RAN | 7:16 PM | - | 6.7 | -142 | DraftKings -142 | +18.6% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | - | 5.8 | -132 | DraftKings -132 | +9.3% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | - | 6.1 | -156 | DraftKings -156 | +9.1% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | AST@SOX | 7:11 PM | - | 5.5 | -122 | DraftKings -122 | +8.0% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | - | 5.7 | -142 | DraftKings -142 | +6.4% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | PAD@MAR | 4:11 PM | - | 5.0 | -122 | DraftKings -122 | +2.7% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | - | 3.9 | -102 | DraftKings -102 | -6.1% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | - | 3.9 | -104 | DraftKings -104 | -6.7% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ATH@TWI | 7:11 PM | - | 3.3 | +120 | DraftKings +120 | -7.4% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | - | 3.6 | -106 | DraftKings -106 | -9.6% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | - | 3.5 | -102 | DraftKings -102 | -10.7% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | - | 3.9 | -136 | DraftKings -136 | -12.7% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ANG@GIA | 4:06 PM | - | 3.4 | -113 | DraftKings -113 | -14.3% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | GUA@RAY | 6:11 PM | - | 2.5 | -128 | DraftKings -128 | -26.1% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High NRFI/YRFI edge 35% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | GUA@RAY | 6:11 PM | - | 7.5 | +100 | DraftKings +100 | +35.0% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High NRFI/YRFI edge 23% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | ANG@GIA | 4:06 PM | - | 6.6 | -113 | DraftKings -113 | +23.2% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High NRFI/YRFI edge 21% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | RED@CAR | 7:16 PM | - | 6.1 | +106 | DraftKings +106 | +21.5% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | ROC@BRE | 7:11 PM | - | 6.4 | -120 | DraftKings -120 | +18.6% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | DIA@NAT | 4:06 PM | - | 6.2 | -122 | DraftKings -122 | +15.8% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | - | 6.1 | -125 | DraftKings -125 | +15.1% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | - | 5.8 | -125 | DraftKings -125 | +11.6% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | ATH@TWI | 7:11 PM | - | 6.0 | -150 | DraftKings -150 | +8.9% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | PAD@MAR | 4:11 PM | - | 5.0 | -104 | DraftKings -104 | +6.4% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | DOD@MET | 7:16 PM | - | 4.3 | +112 | DraftKings +112 | +2.7% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | AST@SOX | 7:11 PM | - | 4.5 | -104 | DraftKings -104 | +1.1% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | - | 3.9 | +122 | DraftKings +122 | -0.1% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | ROY@TIG | 1:11 PM | - | 4.2 | +104 | DraftKings +104 | -0.3% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | MAR@RAN | 7:16 PM | - | 3.3 | +112 | DraftKings +112 | -9.4% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | - | 2.6 | +122 | DraftKings +122 | -14.9% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Over | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | -138 | BetOnline Over 6.5 -130 | best price | 12.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sonny Gray Over | JAY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -150 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 9.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryce Elder Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -137 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price | 8.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Weathers Under | YAN@PHI | 6:06 PM | 6.5 | 6.0 | -156 | DK Under 6.5 -156 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context