MLB Bets 2026-07-24

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	179W–126L–0P	59%	-3.73 u	Last 14 days • 305 settled
Grade A	18W–12L–0P	60%	+2.09 u
Grade B	161W–114L–0P	59%	-5.82 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2173W–1552L–8P	58%	-142.54 u	All-time • 3733 settled
Grade A	223W–160L–0P	58%	+6.86 u
Grade B	1950W–1392L–8P	58%	-149.40 u

23 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	K Prop	Bryce Miller	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez	4.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	K Prop	Tarik Skubal	7.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Pitcher Outs	Trey Yesavage	17.5	-109	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-23	K Prop	Gavin Williams	6.5	-121	-	WIN	+0.826	Gavin Williams: 11.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	449	57%	+0.54u	57	56%	-0.56u	208	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	398	59%	+15.85u	52	56%	-1.03u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	139	55%	-2.25u	1	100%	+0.83u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	631	72%	-8.16u	4	100%	+0.90u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	401	58%	-7.46u	89	53%	-10.20u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	288	60%	-10.84u	63	67%	+4.64u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	108	45%	-15.11u	7	57%	-0.09u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	491	51%	-57.02u	7	57%	-0.34u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	1/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 26 total candidate(s); season N 449, 14d N 57	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 398, 14d N 52	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 139, 14d N 1	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 21 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 58 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 108, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 491, 14d N 7	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 757 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 318 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 736 pitcher(s), 3235 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 561 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1067 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Athletics, Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 884 market side(s) checked \| 884 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹ	PARTIAL	Non-blocking	F5: 14 game(s) fetched \| 0 with ML odds \| 14 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 606 \| batter bats 392 \| batter hand splits 145 \| pitcher HR splits 62 \| batter pitch-type 561 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	+208	-258	+1.5 (-105)	-1.5 (-114)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+104	-126	+1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+241	-303	+1.5 (+108)	-1.5 (-130)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-122	+101	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:46 PM	+112	-135	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-101	-120	-1.5 (+160)	+1.5 (-195)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	+118	-142	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+104)	+1.5 (-126)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	7:16 PM	+104	-126	+1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-179)	-1.5 (+147)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-122	+101	-1.5 (+139)	+1.5 (-168)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	+139	-168	+1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	+142	-172	+1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 2 Grade B | 146 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.393/AVG 0.406 over 37 PA	K Prop	Bryce Miller Over	MAR@RAN	8:06 PM	5.5	7.1	-153	FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 \| best price	29.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145	K Prop	Tarik Skubal Over	ROY@TIG	6:41 PM	7.5	8.8	-145	DK Over 7.5 -145 \| exact	17.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal Market health caution: Run Line Grade A is still eligible, but current drawdown is active: season P&L -2.251u	Run Line	New York Mets +1.5	DOD@MET	7:11 PM	1.5	-	-126	MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -120 \| best price	+14.8%	–✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - Sean Manaea Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

K Prop - Logan Webb Under

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.83

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 5.5 (-153) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.0% / Under 43.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+110	-
DK	5.5	-153	+119	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 29.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.64K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.0% / under 43.0%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Miller: K/9 10.4, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.246 | top pitch: Split-Finger (35% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 37 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .406 | OPS 1.393
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.4%, active roster 19.4%/6 hitters, BVP 24.3%/37 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.45
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.393/AVG 0.406 over 37 PA -- A risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 (-145) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	7.5	-150	+115	-
DK	7.5	-145	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	7.5	-150	+118	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.8K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 17.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tarik Skubal: K/9 11.4, proj 8.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.2% | put-away% 23.0% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Changeup (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 94 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .225 | OPS .704
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 94 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.9%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.8%/6 hitters, BVP 30.9%/94 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Kansas City Royals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 64%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
K% trend: support +7.1 ppts (recent 37.6% vs season 30.5%, proj adj +3.5%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal Run Line — New York Mets +1.5 1.5 (-126) edge 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -126

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -120 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+22.08/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 14.8% ≥ 5%
- No profile for New York Mets — role hit rate + L5 gates skipped
✓ Odds -126 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Sean Manaea (LHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Roki Sasaki (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Market health caution: Run Line Grade A is still eligible, but current drawdown is active: season P&L -2.251u

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (2 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 (-161) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -161

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+126	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 32.1% vs 17% min; cushion -1.45K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 7.2, proj 3.1K over 4.4 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.403 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 21.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .462 | OPS 1.072
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.6%, L7 25.3%, season 21.1%, active roster 18.5%/6 hitters, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; San Francisco Giants 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 18.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.38 | Season Avg 3.38
Prop trend: K L10: 5/8 under 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Trey Yesavage Under 17.5 (-109) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 16.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-130	-105	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 14.054 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 19.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.3 IP (xFIP 4.79 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 82)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 82
BVP (active roster) vs Trey Yesavage: 34 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .121 | OPS .394
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.5%/34 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 5.7%, split 6.7%, L7 5.7%, season 7.9%, BVP 0.0%/34 PA (adj 0.81x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 16.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (146 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 23 play(s) (B 5 | C 18)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 (-105) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	7.5	-105	-121	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+108	-138	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.6K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 27.9% vs 17% min; cushion +2.09K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.3% / under 51.7%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 12.2, proj 9.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 32.9% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Sweeper (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 25.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .291 | OPS .914
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.8%, L7 23.8%, season 24.1%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.70 | Season Avg 7.15
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
K% trend: support +9.1 ppts (recent 38.7% vs season 29.6%, proj adj +4.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jared Jones Over 5.5 (+110) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.10K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jared Jones: K/9 10.5, proj 6.6K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.8% | put-away% 25.0% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 61 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .298 | OPS .976
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.4%, L7 23.8%, season 21.6%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 21.3%/61 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.7%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 4/9 over 5.5
K% trend: support +5.9 ppts (recent 35.3% vs season 29.4%, proj adj +2.9%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 (-154) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-170	+130	-
DK	5.5	-154	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-170	+132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.2% / under 42.8%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 10.1, proj 6.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 21.7% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 64 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .233 | OPS .781
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 18.9%, L7 19.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 29.7%/64 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Shane Drohan Over 5.5 (-128) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+101	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Drohan: K/9 9.2, proj 6.0K over 5.4 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.6% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Drohan: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .250 | OPS .673
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 24.2%, L7 19.5%, season 22.6%, active roster 21.5%/8 hitters, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 4/20 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 4.5 (-135) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-135	+106	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.2% / under 45.8%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grant Holmes: K/9 7.2, proj 4.7K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .412 | OPS 1.088
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.1%, L7 27.0%, season 24.2%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/19 (26%) | Season 5/19 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.11
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Rhett Lowder Under 3.5 (-153) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -153

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+125	-164	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+120	-153	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+118	-148	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.51K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Rhett Lowder: K/9 8.1, proj 3.0K over 3.8 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 2.7 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 20.0% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 17.4% | AVG .111 | OPS .415
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.3%, L7 19.9%, season 20.4%, active roster 18.6%/6 hitters, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.59
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 (-160) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+125	-164	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+125	-160	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob Lopez: K/9 8.7, proj 4.0K over 3.7 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 2.9 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 15.1% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Slider (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 35.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 39 PA | K% 46.2% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .167 | OPS .627
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 21.5%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7%, BVP 46.2%/39 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.27
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +6.9 ppts (recent 24.3% vs season 17.4%, proj adj +3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 5.5 (+101) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+102	-132	-
DK	5.5	+101	-129	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.58K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Matthew Boyd: K/9 8.0, proj 6.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 35.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 47 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .238 | OPS .607
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 25.2%, L7 32.6%, season 24.3%, BVP 21.3%/47 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/10 (30%) | Season 3/10 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -6.4 ppts (recent 17.1% vs season 23.5%, proj adj -3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-151) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+118	-151	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+106	-136	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.36K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tomoyuki Sugano: K/9 5.0, proj 3.1K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.2% | put-away% 11.6% | xwOBA 0.394 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 13 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.2%, L7 24.3%, season 21.1% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — German Marquez Under 3.5 (-126) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.33K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
German Marquez: K/9 6.7, proj 3.2K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.2% | put-away% 12.5% | xwOBA 0.365 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.227
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 17.1%, L7 30.6%, season 21.7% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Davis Martin Under 4.5 (-131) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -131

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+102	-132	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+102	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.6% / under 53.4%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Davis Martin: K/9 7.2, proj 4.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 44 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .834
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.3%, L7 20.2%, season 21.5%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 15.9%/44 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.31 vs season
K% trend: headwind -8.8 ppts (recent 13.2% vs season 22.0%, proj adj -4.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 (-103) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-103	-123	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Trey Yesavage: K/9 8.8, proj 6.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.3% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Trey Yesavage: 34 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .121 | OPS .394
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.5%/34 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.20
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane McClanahan Under 5.5 (-128) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	+100	-128	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.38K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane McClanahan: K/9 7.7, proj 5.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 27.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .588
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 15.5%, L7 21.7%, season 22.3%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.72
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.2 ppts (recent 17.3% vs season 22.5%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 4.5 (-139) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 6.1, proj 4.2K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Curveball (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Curveball: 36.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .286 | OPS .844
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 26.2%, L7 22.6%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters, BVP 21.6%/51 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 71%; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.10
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 (-153) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Trevor Rogers: K/9 7.7, proj 4.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.7% | put-away% 13.5% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, L7 21.2%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.9%/7 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (7 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.28
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 24.4% vs season 18.8%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Manaea Over 4.5 (-163) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 5.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-167	+128	-
DK	4.5	-163	+128	SelectedRecommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK LOWER delta -0.67
Sean Manaea: K/9 9.2, proj 4.8K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 164 PA | K% 20.1% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .286 | OPS .979
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 164 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.4%, L7 25.1%, season 20.6%, BVP 20.1%/164 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/21 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 3.86
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 (-146) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.1K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.1, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.6% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, L7 23.8%, season 24.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.90
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Spencer Arrighetti Under 5.5 (-128) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+104	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+101	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.0% / under 53.0%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Spencer Arrighetti: K/9 9.4, proj 5.2K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.344 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 19.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.3%, L7 23.7%, season 23.7%, active roster 23.5%/6 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Patrick Sandoval Under 4.5 (-145) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+114	-145	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.20K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Patrick Sandoval: K/9 9.1, proj 4.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 37.3% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 29.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 45 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .608
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.1%, L7 19.5%, season 19.6%, BVP 15.6%/45 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 0/2 (0%) | L10 0/2 (0%) | L20 0/2 (0%) | Season 0/2 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 0/2 under 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Roki Sasaki Over 5.5 (+124) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +124

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+126	-164	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+124	-159	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+130	-166	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.1% / under 57.9%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Roki Sasaki: K/9 8.6, proj 5.7K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.9% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.9%, L7 28.8%, season 22.3%, active roster 19.4%/7 hitters (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 28.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.4% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/17 (29%) | Season 5/17 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dustin May Under 5.5 (-116) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-108	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-110	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dustin May: K/9 9.3, proj 5.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .699
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 23.7%, L7 17.4%, season 24.6%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
K% trend: support +4.0 ppts (recent 26.9% vs season 22.9%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Webb Under 6.5 (-149) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -149

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.83 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	-154	+120	-
DK	6.5	+117	-149	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 2.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.15K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Logan Webb: K/9 6.7, proj 6.4K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.4% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 42 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .822
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 28.4%, split 25.7%, L7 27.3%, season 25.2%, active roster 25.6%/6 hitters, BVP 50.0%/42 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 25.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 27.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/17 (82%) | Season 14/17 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (+125) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.09K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zebby Matthews: K/9 7.8, proj 4.6K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .785
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dustin May Under 17.5 (+110) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-140	+100	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-147	+110	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 14.545 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 16.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.91 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 55.6% / under 44.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 80, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 80
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 23.7%, L7 17.4%, season 24.6%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.8%, L7 6.6%, season 9.6%, BVP 3.7%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.80 | Season Avg 15.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.96 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.96 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Over 18.5 (-114) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	-120	-120	-
DK	18.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.474999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 10.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.77 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 42 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .822
Opponent K profile: composite 28.8%, split 25.7%, L7 27.3%, season 25.2%, BVP 50.0%/42 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.7%, L7 8.8%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.8%/42 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 18.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 (+102) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+100	-140	-
DK	18.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 20.318 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.9 IP (xFIP 2.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.9 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 94 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .225 | OPS .704
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.9%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 30.9%/94 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.3%, split 5.1%, L7 7.2%, season 8.4%, BVP 4.3%/94 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/14 (29%) | Season 4/14 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 17.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 (+120) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 17.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
DK	17.5	-159	+120	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 15.834 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.56 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, L7 21.2%, season 21.3% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, L7 8.8%, season 8.0% (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 16.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-175) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	-
DK	17.5	-175	+131	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 19.137 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.99 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, L7 23.8%, season 24.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, L7 7.8%, season 10.0% (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 17.5 (-165) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-185	+130	-
DK	17.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.937 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.93 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .291 | OPS .914
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.8%, L7 23.8%, season 24.1%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.6%, L7 7.8%, season 10.0%, BVP 5.0%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Drohan Under 17.5 (-103) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
DK	17.5	-129	-103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.195 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.74 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Drohan: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .250 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 24.2%, L7 19.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 7.9%, L7 6.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.20 | Season Avg 11.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +3.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — MacKenzie Gore Under 17.5 (+100) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	-105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.238 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.95 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 64 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .233 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 18.9%, L7 19.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 29.7%/64 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.1%, L7 9.2%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.7%/64 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 15.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryce Miller Over 17.5 (-148) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-148	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 18.591 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 37 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .406 | OPS 1.393
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.4%, BVP 24.3%/37 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 7.1%, L7 6.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 13.5%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/11 (27%) | Season 3/11 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zebby Matthews Under 17.5 (+123) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +123

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-164	+123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.449 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.37 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 14.3%, L7 6.2%, season 9.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.14x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 21 play(s) (C 21)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-259) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.83 (AVG 0.236)
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.366 (14 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .450 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 5/35 (14%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/99 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/51 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter Hits: 36/48 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter Hits: 79/99 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.83

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-258) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+190	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tommy Edman Under 1.5 (-262) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+193	-262	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-205) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -204 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -204 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-232) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -232

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+172	-232	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-267) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -267 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -267 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-205) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -205 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -205 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+152	-205	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-261) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.289 (31 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/40 (18%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 75/99 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 36/48 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 75/99 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-208) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -208 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -208

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -208 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.258)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.203 (22 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/42 (19%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/98 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 34/47 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 68/98 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-258) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+190	-258	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.259)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 36/47 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 72/98 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 (-250) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.264)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/41 (20%) | L5 5/22 (23%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 39/50 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 74/102 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-256) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+189	-256	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.268)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.351 (30 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/35 (31%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/102 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 42/53 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 77/102 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-249) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.275)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/37 (40%) | L5 8/18 (44%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/79 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 27/36 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 55/79 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-198) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.296)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.228 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/41 (29%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/100 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 33/45 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter Hits: 69/100 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-261) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.299)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/43 (26%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/96 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/47 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 67/96 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-254) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -254 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -254

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -254 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.441 (37 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/100 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/50 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 76/100 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-253) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+187	-253	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.394 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.269 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 10 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 4/34 (12%) | L5 2/18 (11%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/95 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 67/95 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-236) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+175	-236	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.313)
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.361 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 8/22 (36%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/97 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 26/49 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter Hits: 58/97 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-222) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -222

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+165	-222	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.20 (AVG 0.328)
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.571 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 17/37 (46%) | L5 9/20 (45%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter Hits: 34/49 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 65/102 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-220) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.320)
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.403 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 6 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/43 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 59/96 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-202) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -202 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -202 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.32 (AVG 0.332)
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.338 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/99 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/50 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter Hits: 29/49 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 58/99 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 58 play(s) (C 58)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-129) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-122	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.932 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/102 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 51/102 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 51/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+102) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.339 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.43 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+107) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.686 (34 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/94 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 41/94 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+105) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/100 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 47/100 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+122) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.291 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/99 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/50 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter TB: 44/99 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+107) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (+124) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.541 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 34/83 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter TB: 15/44 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 34/83 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-101) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.460 (37 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 35.7% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .607
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/94 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 43/94 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+116) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.380 (27 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Spencer Arrighetti: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/100 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 39/100 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+102) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.991 (20 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+102) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.494 (30 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/102 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+113) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.517 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/78 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/37 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 27/78 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+117) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.161 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/82 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/40 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 19/42 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 41/82 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-146) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (14 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .450 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/99 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 68/99 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+129) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.387 (34 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 24 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .742
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 29/50 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 46/100 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+128) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/97 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 39/97 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-184) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/94 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 30/46 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 62/94 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-109) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.335 (31 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/99 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 42/99 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+123) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/101 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 40/101 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+136) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.487 (37 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.P. Crawford Under 1.5 (-195) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/82 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/42 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 30/40 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 61/82 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+143) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.317 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.357
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/97 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 41/97 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-192) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.461 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 61/90 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 26/41 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 61/90 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+102) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.528 (37 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Beck Way contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/100 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 39/100 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Under 1.5 (-182) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.327 (22 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/89 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 26/41 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 60/89 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-170) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.193 (49 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/97 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 61/97 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-124) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.176 (22 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Palmquist contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Carson Palmquist: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/98 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 49/98 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-150) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/98 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 31/47 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 64/98 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-164) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/49 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 32/47 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 60/96 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+119) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.152 (11 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/94 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 44/94 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-193) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.334 (22 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 23 PA | 8/22 | HR 4 | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.346
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 23 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/96 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 33/48 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 68/96 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+118) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.335 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Germán Márquez contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Germán Márquez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 37/103 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 17/52 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 37/103 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-190) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/96 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 63/96 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+109) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (+137) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+141) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+114) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.576 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 11 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .282
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/92 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 16/44 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 36/92 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+120) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/95 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 37/95 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+129) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+129	-171	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+109) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-102) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/100 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/100 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+118) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+114) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.382 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/99 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/51 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 38/99 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+138) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.497 (68 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 33/102 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/48 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 33/102 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+136) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+127) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+136) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+146) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Under 1.5 (-156) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.522 (11 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/96 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 55/96 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Steer Under 1.5 (-194) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.405 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/48 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 31/48 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 60/96 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+150) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.232 (12 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/79 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 13/38 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 27/79 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+152) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+152	-204	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+146) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (+142) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Under 1.5 (-189) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.174 (31 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/100 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 60/100 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-112) edge 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -112

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-112	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-112	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-	-
DK	7.5	-112	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-112	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-109	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-112	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-110	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: MacKenzie Gore (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryce Miller (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Bryce Miller elite xFIP (3.34)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-107) edge 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -107

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-105	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-105	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-104	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-105	-	-
DK	7.5	-107	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-105	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-102	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-109	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-110	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs LHP (neutral)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-118) edge 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (F5) | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
FanDuel	5.5	-110	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Noah Dean (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Nationals Park (NEUTRAL)
Carson Palmquist xFIP 4.17
Eduardo Rodriguez xFIP 4.55
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Carson Palmquist (LHP)
Away SP: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-146) edge 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books | 4 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	Recommended
FanDuel	3.5	-146	+112	Selected
BetOnline	4	-115	-105	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Shane McClanahan xFIP 4.00
Joey Cantillo xFIP 4.15
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ NRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Jared Jones: xFIP 3.66, K% 29.2%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 32.8% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.237, K% 50.0%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 30.9%
Matthew Boyd: xFIP 3.93, K% 21.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 29.2% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 25.0%, BB% 7.5%, whiff% 26.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 106)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.09
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Jared Jones: 78% (9 starts) | Matthew Boyd: 80% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.319 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.285 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +19.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -10.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-138) edge 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -138

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

MacKenzie Gore: xFIP 3.95, K% 25.8%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.308, whiff% 26.1% | 1st inn full (91 PA): xwOBA 0.302, K% 33.0%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 23.9%
Bryce Miller: xFIP 3.34, K% 28.8%, BB% 5.1%, xwOBA 0.246, whiff% 28.7% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.186, K% 26.5%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 17.6%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 100)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.84
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
NRFI rate: MacKenzie Gore: 71% (21 starts) | Bryce Miller: 90% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 37-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.311 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -138 | implied 58.0% | model edge +15.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +108 | implied 48.1% | model edge -6.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-102) edge 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Davis Martin: xFIP 3.76, K% 18.9%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 25.5% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.216, K% 34.8%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 22.5%
Spencer Arrighetti: xFIP 4.88, K% 23.7%, BB% 12.7%, xwOBA 0.344, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.317, K% 27.4%, BB% 6.5%, whiff% 24.5%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.78
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Davis Martin: 90% (19 starts) | Spencer Arrighetti: 81% (16 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.352 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +8.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +0.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Jesús Luzardo: xFIP 2.93, K% 32.8%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.266, whiff% 32.9% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.209, K% 29.3%, BB% 8.0%, whiff% 27.0%
Will Warren: xFIP 3.95, K% 20.5%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 36.0%, BB% 5.3%, whiff% 26.0%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 98)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.79
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Jesús Luzardo: 95% (20 starts) | Will Warren: 74% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 29-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch) | Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.324 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +8.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +0.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-132) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Tarik Skubal: xFIP 2.42, K% 33.0%, BB% 3.4%, xwOBA 0.273, whiff% 31.2% | 1st inn full (51 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 37.2%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 33.9%
Beck Way: xFIP 4.05, K% 21.2%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 27.4%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Tarik Skubal: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.386 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +8.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge +1.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-140) edge 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -140

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Shane McClanahan: xFIP 4.00, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 30.4%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 26.4%
Joey Cantillo: xFIP 4.15, K% 27.0%, BB% 11.4%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 29.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.276, K% 27.9%, BB% 10.5%, whiff% 27.6%
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.80 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.57
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 83% (18 starts) | Joey Cantillo: 81% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.266 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +3.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge +5.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+114) edge 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +114

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Carson Palmquist: xFIP 4.17, K% 23.9%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.313, whiff% 24.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (18 PA): xwOBA 0.250, K% 38.9%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 29.3%
Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.55, K% 16.3%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.345, whiff% 19.6% | 1st inn full (87 PA): xwOBA 0.391, K% 20.7%, BB% 11.5%, whiff% 13.5%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 126 (team avg 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.96 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.82
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Eduardo Rodriguez: 60% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.255 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge +0.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge +8.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-108) edge -7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Dustin May: xFIP 3.91, K% 24.3%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.306, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 25.6%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 22.1%
Rhett Lowder: xFIP 4.81, K% 18.1%, BB% 10.3%, xwOBA 0.360, whiff% 20.0% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.385, K% 18.3%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 18.8%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.80 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 1.00
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Dustin May: 63% (19 starts) | Rhett Lowder: 57% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.237 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -7.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +16.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge -9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Shane Drohan: xFIP 3.74, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 27.6% | 1st inn full (38 PA): xwOBA 0.235, K% 26.3%, BB% 13.2%, whiff% 26.2%
Tomoyuki Sugano: xFIP 5.00, K% 13.2%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.394, whiff% 17.2% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.404, K% 21.3%, BB% 4.0%, whiff% 19.6%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.87
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Shane Drohan: 90% (10 starts) | Tomoyuki Sugano: 59% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.279 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -9.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +18.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-106) edge -9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Grant Holmes: xFIP 4.68, K% 18.6%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.281, K% 27.6%, BB% 9.2%, whiff% 27.6%
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.92
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Grant Holmes: 78% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -9.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +10.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge -11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Patrick Sandoval: xFIP 4.11, K% 23.1%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (6 PA): xwOBA 0.173, K% 33.3%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 12.5%
Trey Yesavage: xFIP 4.79, K% 23.0%, BB% 12.2%, xwOBA 0.285, whiff% 30.3% | 1st inn full (63 PA): xwOBA 0.263, K% 22.2%, BB% 15.9%, whiff% 30.0%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 94)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.74
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Trey Yesavage: 67% (15 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.287 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -11.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +20.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-108) edge -11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Sean Manaea: xFIP 4.12, K% 22.5%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.353, K% 14.7%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 18.7%
Roki Sasaki: xFIP 4.31, K% 21.8%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 28.9% | 1st inn full (66 PA): xwOBA 0.314, K% 22.7%, BB% 7.6%, whiff% 26.1%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 107)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.87
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Sean Manaea: 43% (7 starts) | Roki Sasaki: 82% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.332 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -11.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +20.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-132) edge -14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Logan Webb: xFIP 3.77, K% 18.0%, BB% 6.2%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 20.4% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.349, K% 27.5%, BB% 8.7%, whiff% 27.5%
Grayson Rodriguez: xFIP 4.72, K% 17.2%, BB% 9.2%, xwOBA 0.403, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.399, K% 14.7%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 17.7%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 100)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.73 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.05
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Logan Webb: 82% (17 starts) | Grayson Rodriguez: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.240 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.320 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge -14.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge +23.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+102) edge -19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Zebby Matthews: xFIP 4.37, K% 20.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.335, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (52 PA): xwOBA 0.362, K% 17.3%, BB% 1.9%, whiff% 15.2%
Jacob Lopez: xFIP 5.39, K% 20.7%, BB% 11.7%, xwOBA 0.305, whiff% 20.9% | 1st inn full (53 PA): xwOBA 0.261, K% 18.9%, BB% 18.9%, whiff% 20.9%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.06
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Zebby Matthews: 50% (12 starts) | Jacob Lopez: 83% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 60-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -19.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +28.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-110) diff -60.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -110

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Germán Márquez: xFIP 5.01, K% 16.8%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.365, whiff% 19.2% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.378, K% 23.8%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 19.8%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.52 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Germán Márquez: 44% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.302 vs SP's top pitch)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-130) edge 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Zebby Matthews: xFIP 4.37, K% 20.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.335, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (52 PA): xwOBA 0.362, K% 17.3%, BB% 1.9%, whiff% 15.2%
Jacob Lopez: xFIP 5.39, K% 20.7%, BB% 11.7%, xwOBA 0.305, whiff% 20.9% | 1st inn full (53 PA): xwOBA 0.261, K% 18.9%, BB% 18.9%, whiff% 20.9%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.06
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Zebby Matthews: 50% (12 starts) | Jacob Lopez: 83% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 60-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -19.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +28.5%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 28% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+104) edge 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Logan Webb: xFIP 3.77, K% 18.0%, BB% 6.2%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 20.4% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.349, K% 27.5%, BB% 8.7%, whiff% 27.5%
Grayson Rodriguez: xFIP 4.72, K% 17.2%, BB% 9.2%, xwOBA 0.403, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.399, K% 14.7%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 17.7%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 100)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.73 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.05
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Logan Webb: 82% (17 starts) | Grayson Rodriguez: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.240 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.320 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge -14.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge +23.2%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 23% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-118) edge 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Sean Manaea: xFIP 4.12, K% 22.5%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.353, K% 14.7%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 18.7%
Roki Sasaki: xFIP 4.31, K% 21.8%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 28.9% | 1st inn full (66 PA): xwOBA 0.314, K% 22.7%, BB% 7.6%, whiff% 26.1%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 107)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.87
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Sean Manaea: 43% (7 starts) | Roki Sasaki: 82% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.332 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -11.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +20.9%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 21% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Patrick Sandoval: xFIP 4.11, K% 23.1%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (6 PA): xwOBA 0.173, K% 33.3%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 12.5%
Trey Yesavage: xFIP 4.79, K% 23.0%, BB% 12.2%, xwOBA 0.285, whiff% 30.3% | 1st inn full (63 PA): xwOBA 0.263, K% 22.2%, BB% 15.9%, whiff% 30.0%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 94)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.74
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Trey Yesavage: 67% (15 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.287 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -11.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +20.2%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 20% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Shane Drohan: xFIP 3.74, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 27.6% | 1st inn full (38 PA): xwOBA 0.235, K% 26.3%, BB% 13.2%, whiff% 26.2%
Tomoyuki Sugano: xFIP 5.00, K% 13.2%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.394, whiff% 17.2% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.404, K% 21.3%, BB% 4.0%, whiff% 19.6%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.87
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Shane Drohan: 90% (10 starts) | Tomoyuki Sugano: 59% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.279 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -9.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +18.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-118) edge 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Dustin May: xFIP 3.91, K% 24.3%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.306, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 25.6%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 22.1%
Rhett Lowder: xFIP 4.81, K% 18.1%, BB% 10.3%, xwOBA 0.360, whiff% 20.0% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.385, K% 18.3%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 18.8%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.80 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 1.00
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Dustin May: 63% (19 starts) | Rhett Lowder: 57% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.237 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -7.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +16.6%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Grant Holmes: xFIP 4.68, K% 18.6%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.281, K% 27.6%, BB% 9.2%, whiff% 27.6%
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.92
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Grant Holmes: 78% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -9.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +10.8%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-146) edge 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -146

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Carson Palmquist: xFIP 4.17, K% 23.9%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.313, whiff% 24.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (18 PA): xwOBA 0.250, K% 38.9%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 29.3%
Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.55, K% 16.3%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.345, whiff% 19.6% | 1st inn full (87 PA): xwOBA 0.391, K% 20.7%, BB% 11.5%, whiff% 13.5%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 126 (team avg 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.96 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.82
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Eduardo Rodriguez: 60% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.255 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge +0.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge +8.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+110) edge 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +110

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Shane McClanahan: xFIP 4.00, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 30.4%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 26.4%
Joey Cantillo: xFIP 4.15, K% 27.0%, BB% 11.4%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 29.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.276, K% 27.9%, BB% 10.5%, whiff% 27.6%
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.80 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.57
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 83% (18 starts) | Joey Cantillo: 81% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.266 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -140 | implied 58.3% | model edge +3.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +110 | implied 47.6% | model edge +5.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+104) edge 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Tarik Skubal: xFIP 2.42, K% 33.0%, BB% 3.4%, xwOBA 0.273, whiff% 31.2% | 1st inn full (51 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 37.2%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 33.9%
Beck Way: xFIP 4.05, K% 21.2%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 27.4%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Tarik Skubal: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.386 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +8.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge +1.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Jesús Luzardo: xFIP 2.93, K% 32.8%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.266, whiff% 32.9% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.209, K% 29.3%, BB% 8.0%, whiff% 27.0%
Will Warren: xFIP 3.95, K% 20.5%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 36.0%, BB% 5.3%, whiff% 26.0%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 98)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.79
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Jesús Luzardo: 95% (20 starts) | Will Warren: 74% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 29-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch) | Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.324 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +8.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +0.5%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-125) edge 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Davis Martin: xFIP 3.76, K% 18.9%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 25.5% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.216, K% 34.8%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 22.5%
Spencer Arrighetti: xFIP 4.88, K% 23.7%, BB% 12.7%, xwOBA 0.344, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.317, K% 27.4%, BB% 6.5%, whiff% 24.5%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.78
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Davis Martin: 90% (19 starts) | Spencer Arrighetti: 81% (16 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.352 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +8.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +0.3%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+108) edge -6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +108

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

MacKenzie Gore: xFIP 3.95, K% 25.8%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.308, whiff% 26.1% | 1st inn full (91 PA): xwOBA 0.302, K% 33.0%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 23.9%
Bryce Miller: xFIP 3.34, K% 28.8%, BB% 5.1%, xwOBA 0.246, whiff% 28.7% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.186, K% 26.5%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 17.6%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 100)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.84
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
NRFI rate: MacKenzie Gore: 71% (21 starts) | Bryce Miller: 90% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 37-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.311 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -138 | implied 58.0% | model edge +15.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +108 | implied 48.1% | model edge -6.2%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge -10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Jared Jones: xFIP 3.66, K% 29.2%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 32.8% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.237, K% 50.0%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 30.9%
Matthew Boyd: xFIP 3.93, K% 21.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 29.2% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 25.0%, BB% 7.5%, whiff% 26.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 106)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.09
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Jared Jones: 78% (9 starts) | Matthew Boyd: 80% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.319 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.285 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +19.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -10.8%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-110) diff -19.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -110

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Germán Márquez: xFIP 5.01, K% 16.8%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.365, whiff% 19.2% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.378, K% 23.8%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 19.8%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.52 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Germán Márquez: 44% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.302 vs SP's top pitch)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-112	50.4%	68.0%	+17.6%	$+28.70	9	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-107	49.5%	66.5%	+17.1%	$+28.73	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (Total) +17.6%

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: MacKenzie Gore (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryce Miller (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Bryce Miller elite xFIP (3.34)

C Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (Total) +17.1%

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs LHP (neutral)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (F5)	6:46 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-118	50.8%	62.4%	+11.6%	$+15.30	1	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-146	55.7%	64.4%	+8.7%	$+8.46	2	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Under 5.5 — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (F5) (F5 Total) +11.6%

[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Noah Dean (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Nationals Park (NEUTRAL)
Carson Palmquist xFIP 4.17
Eduardo Rodriguez xFIP 4.55
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Carson Palmquist (LHP)
Away SP: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

C Over 3.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) (F5 Total) +8.7%

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Shane McClanahan xFIP 4.00
Joey Cantillo xFIP 4.15
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (15 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Jared Jones / Matthew Boyd	6.5 / 7.7	3.5 / 7.7	+19.9%	Score 6.5 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	MacKenzie Gore / Bryce Miller	6.4 / 7.7	3.6 / 7.7	+15.2%	Score 6.4 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Tarik Skubal / Beck Way	5.7 / 7.7	4.3 / 7.7	+8.1%	Score 5.7 < 7.7 threshold Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:46 PM	Jesús Luzardo / Will Warren	5.5 / 7.7	4.5 / 7.7	+8.5%	Score 5.5 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	Shane McClanahan / Joey Cantillo	5.3 / 7.7	4.7 / 7.7	+3.2%	Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 3.2% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Davis Martin / Spencer Arrighetti	5.1 / 7.7	4.9 / 7.7	+8.6%	Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Carson Palmquist / Eduardo Rodriguez	4.1 / 7.7	5.9 / 7.7	+0.2%	Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 0.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (18 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	Shane Drohan / Tomoyuki Sugano	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-9.3%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -9.3% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	Dustin May / Rhett Lowder	3.9 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-7.6%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -7.6% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	7:16 PM	Patrick Sandoval / Trey Yesavage	3.8 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-11.2%	Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -11.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (6 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	Logan Webb / Grayson Rodriguez	3.7 / 7.7	6.3 / 7.7	-14.1%	Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -14.1% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	TBD / Grant Holmes ⚠ Home SP	3.6 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	-9.8%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -9.8% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Sean Manaea / Roki Sasaki	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-11.9%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -11.9% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	TBD / Germán Márquez ⚠ Home SP	3.1 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	no odds	Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used \| No NRFI/YRFI odds available — edge gate skipped
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	Zebby Matthews / Jacob Lopez	2.4 / 7.7	7.6 / 7.7	-19.5%	Score 2.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -19.5% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 0 batter line(s)
Market discovery: no extra HR markets returned
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

No batter HR chances clear the watchlist tier.

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	100	88.2%	-751	-	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	100	87.5%	-698	-	Citi Field HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	99	86.6%	-647	-	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	99	86.5%	-641	-	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	99	86.4%	-636	-	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.6%	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	93	85.6%	-597	-	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10	-
Watchlist	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	93	85.6%	-595	-	PNC Park HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:46 PM	93	85.6%	-594	-	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	92	84.4%	-542	-	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	92	84.2%	-531	-	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	91	84.1%	-528	-	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	91	84.1%	-528	-	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 \| Wind 14 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	91	83.8%	-516	-	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	90	82.9%	-486	-	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	7:16 PM	90	82.9%	-484	-	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	7:16 PM	Patrick Sandoval	Trey Yesavage	0.95	17.1%	47.4%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	Shane McClanahan	Joey Cantillo	0.94	17.1%	47.2%	—	—
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Davis Martin	Spencer Arrighetti	1.00	16.2%	45.8%	—	—
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	Logan Webb	Grayson Rodriguez	0.82	15.9%	45.2%	—	—
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	None	Germán Márquez	0.88	15.9%	45.2%	—	—
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	Dustin May	Rhett Lowder	0.93	15.8%	45.0%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Carson Palmquist	Eduardo Rodriguez	1.02	15.6%	44.5%	—	—
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:46 PM	Jesús Luzardo	Will Warren	1.10	14.4%	42.3%	—	—
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Jared Jones	Matthew Boyd	0.96	14.4%	42.3%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	MacKenzie Gore	Bryce Miller	1.10	14.4%	42.2%	—	—
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	None	Grant Holmes	1.00	13.6%	40.7%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Tarik Skubal	Beck Way	0.91	13.5%	40.5%	—	—
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	Shane Drohan	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.08	13.4%	40.3%	—	—
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Sean Manaea	Roki Sasaki	0.93	12.5%	38.6%	—	—
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	Zebby Matthews	Jacob Lopez	0.95	11.8%	36.9%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees	72.1	73.2	74.5	4	Sweeper (50% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 32.9%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	71.2	62.8	84.5	7	Split-Finger (35% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.246, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	68.1	74.3	66.0	4	Slider (37% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 32.8%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	67.6	69.2	71.0	5	Changeup (50% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	63.4	63.7	65.0	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	61.7	60.4	66.0	6	Slider (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	58.9	65.6	54.0	5	Changeup (42% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	54.9	65.6	47.0	5	Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 37.3%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Beck Way	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	54.8	61.3	47.5	5	Cutter (35% whiff, 42% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	54.7	57.6	53.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	53.3	52.6	51.0	4	Sweeper (39% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	52.4	60.2	43.0	3	Slider (39% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	51.2	56.8	50.0	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	50.5	47.8	54.5	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	50.1	40.6	55.0	5	Slider (27% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	49.9	59.1	41.0	5	Slider (52% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	49.0	53.1	46.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	47.7	43.3	54.0	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	46.9	50.9	43.0	6	Slider (40% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	46.6	44.6	47.0	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	46.2	47.3	44.5	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	45.3	57.0	35.5	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Athletics	43.1	45.1	40.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	36.3	39.2	35.0	5	Curveball (22% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	36.3	42.9	27.5	4	Slider (33% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	32.8	34.6	25.0	5	Slider (33% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	26.7	40.9	6.0	4	Changeup (34% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.403, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	22.8	29.8	10.5	7	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 17.2%, put-away 11.6%, xwOBA 0.394, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	L	16.3%	5.5	5.8	5.8	92	normal	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	L	20.7%	2.9	4.2	4.0	49	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.9 IP/start
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.6%	4.6	4.9	4.8	77	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	23.1%	4.5	4.7	5.4	76	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	21.0%	5.5	5.2	5.3	92	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	R	18.9%	4.7	5.6	5.4	79	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.1%	2.7	4.6	4.2	45	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.7 IP/start
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	27.0%	5.2	5.0	5.1	87	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	13.2%	5.4	5.3	5.3	91	normal	full	10.50	89.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	L	33.0%	5.8	5.9	6.0	97	normal	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	R	23.8%	4.8	5.4	5.3	80	short	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Beck Way	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	R	21.1%	1.0	-	4.8	17	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	R	17.2%	3.9	4.4	4.5	65	short	full	6.00	94.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	R	21.8%	4.7	5.1	5.0	79	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	L	24.1%	5.5	5.1	5.2	92	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Athletics	R	20.0%	5.2	5.8	5.7	87	normal	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	22.5%	4.9	5.2	5.3	82	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	20.5%	4.9	5.2	5.1	82	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees	L	32.8%	5.8	5.8	6.0	97	normal	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	29.2%	4.4	4.4	4.5	74	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	R	16.8%	4.0	4.6	4.6	67	short	full	25.00	75.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	R	18.0%	6.2	6.3	6.3	104	deep	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	R	28.8%	5.5	5.8	6.0	92	normal	full	84.50	15.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	24.3%	4.8	5.2	5.1	80	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	L	20.7%	5.3	5.1	5.1	89	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	L	25.8%	5.2	5.3	5.3	87	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	R	23.0%	4.9	5.4	5.3	82	short	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	23.9%	1.4	2.2	3.8	24	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Trey Yesavage	Trey Yesavage Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	14.1	-3.5	19.7%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.3	82	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Dustin May	Dustin May Under	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	14.5	-3.0	16.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.1	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.96 <= 3 min
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	18.5	20.5	2.0	10.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	20.3	1.8	9.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Under	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	15.8	-1.7	9.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	18.9	1.4	8.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Drohan	Shane Drohan Under	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.2	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
MacKenzie Gore	MacKenzie Gore Under	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryce Miller	Bryce Miller Over	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Under	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes