| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 449 | 57% | +0.54u | 57 | 56% | -0.56u | 208 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 398 | 59% | +15.85u | 52 | 56% | -1.03u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 139 | 55% | -2.25u | 1 | 100% | +0.83u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 631 | 72% | -8.16u | 4 | 100% | +0.90u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 401 | 58% | -7.46u | 89 | 53% | -10.20u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 288 | 60% | -10.84u | 63 | 67% | +4.64u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 108 | 45% | -15.11u | 7 | 57% | -0.09u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 491 | 51% | -57.02u | 7 | 57% | -0.34u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 1/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees | 72.1 | 73.2 | 74.5 | 4 | Sweeper (50% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 32.9%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | 71.2 | 62.8 | 84.5 | 7 | Split-Finger (35% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.246, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | 68.1 | 74.3 | 66.0 | 4 | Slider (37% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 32.8%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 67.6 | 69.2 | 71.0 | 5 | Changeup (50% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | 63.4 | 63.7 | 65.0 | 3 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | 61.7 | 60.4 | 66.0 | 6 | Slider (38% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | 58.9 | 65.6 | 54.0 | 5 | Changeup (42% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | 54.9 | 65.6 | 47.0 | 5 | Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 37.3%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Beck Way | Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | 54.8 | 61.3 | 47.5 | 5 | Cutter (35% whiff, 42% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | 54.7 | 57.6 | 53.5 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Carson Palmquist | Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 53.3 | 52.6 | 51.0 | 4 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets | 52.4 | 60.2 | 43.0 | 3 | Slider (39% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | 51.2 | 56.8 | 50.0 | 4 | Changeup (37% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | 50.5 | 47.8 | 54.5 | 6 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | 50.1 | 40.6 | 55.0 | 5 | Slider (27% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 49.9 | 59.1 | 41.0 | 5 | Slider (52% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | 49.0 | 53.1 | 46.5 | 6 | Curveball (41% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels | 47.7 | 43.3 | 54.0 | 5 | Changeup (29% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | 46.9 | 50.9 | 43.0 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 46.6 | 44.6 | 47.0 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies | 46.2 | 47.3 | 44.5 | 5 | Changeup (26% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | 45.3 | 57.0 | 35.5 | 7 | Curveball (39% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Athletics | 43.1 | 45.1 | 40.0 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | 36.3 | 39.2 | 35.0 | 5 | Curveball (22% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | 36.3 | 42.9 | 27.5 | 4 | Slider (33% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Germán Márquez | San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | 32.8 | 34.6 | 25.0 | 5 | Slider (33% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | 26.7 | 40.9 | 6.0 | 4 | Changeup (34% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.403, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | 22.8 | 29.8 | 10.5 | 7 | Split-Finger (31% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 17.2%, put-away 11.6%, xwOBA 0.394, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | L | 16.3% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | L | 20.7% | 2.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 49 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.9 IP/start |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 18.6% | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 77 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 23.1% | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 76 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 21.0% | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 92 | normal | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | R | 18.9% | 4.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 79 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 18.1% | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 45 | short | full | 27.50 | 72.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.7 IP/start |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 27.0% | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 87 | normal | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 13.2% | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 10.50 | 89.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | L | 33.0% | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | R | 23.8% | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 80 | short | full | 35.50 | 64.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Beck Way | Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | R | 21.1% | 1.0 | - | 4.8 | 17 | short | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | R | 17.2% | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 65 | short | full | 6.00 | 94.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets | R | 21.8% | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 79 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | L | 24.1% | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 92 | normal | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Athletics | R | 20.0% | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 87 | normal | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 22.5% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 20.5% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 82 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees | L | 32.8% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | R | 29.2% | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 74 | short | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| Germán Márquez | San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | R | 16.8% | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 67 | short | full | 25.00 | 75.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 18.0% | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 104 | deep | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | R | 28.8% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 92 | normal | full | 84.50 | 15.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 24.3% | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 80 | short | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 20.7% | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 89 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | L | 25.8% | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 87 | normal | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | R | 23.0% | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Carson Palmquist | Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 23.9% | 1.4 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 24 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Yesavage | Trey Yesavage Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 14.1 | -3.5 | 19.7% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.3 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Dustin May | Dustin May Under | Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 14.5 | -3.0 | 16.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.1 | 80 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.96 <= 3 min |
| Logan Webb | Logan Webb Over | Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | 18.5 | 20.5 | 2.0 | 10.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min |
| Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal Over | Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | 18.5 | 20.3 | 1.8 | 9.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Trevor Rogers | Trevor Rogers Under | Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 15.8 | -1.7 | 9.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 9.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Jesus Luzardo | Jesus Luzardo Over | New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 8.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shane Drohan | Shane Drohan Under | Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | 17.5 | 16.2 | -1.3 | 7.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.2 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| MacKenzie Gore | MacKenzie Gore Under | Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 16.2 | -1.3 | 7.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.3 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Bryce Miller | Bryce Miller Over | Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Zebby Matthews | Zebby Matthews Under | Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 16.4 | -1.1 | 6.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.393/AVG 0.406 over 37 PA | K Prop | Bryce Miller Over | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 7.1 | -153 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price | 29.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145 | K Prop | Tarik Skubal Over | ROY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 7.5 | 8.8 | -145 | DK Over 7.5 -145 | exact | 17.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal Market health caution: Run Line Grade A is still eligible, but current drawdown is active: season P&L -2.251u | Run Line | New York Mets +1.5 | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | - | -126 | MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -120 | best price | +14.8% | –✓✓✓–✓ | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | K Prop | Grayson Rodriguez Under | ANG@GIA | 10:16 PM | 4.5 | 3.0 | -161 | DK Under 4.5 -161 | exact | 32.1% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Outs | Trey Yesavage Under | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 14.1 | -109 | DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact | 19.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Jesus Luzardo Over | YAN@PHI | 6:46 PM | 7.5 | 9.6 | -105 | FanDuel Over 7.5 +108 | best price | 27.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Jared Jones Over | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | +110 | DK Over 5.5 +110 | exact | 20.1% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -153 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -148 | best price | 14.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jacob Lopez Under | ATH@TWI | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -160 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -154 | best price | 10.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +101 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | ROC@BRE | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.1 | -151 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -136 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | German Marquez Under | PAD@MAR | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -126 | DK Under 3.5 -126 | exact | 9.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Davis Martin Under | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -131 | DK Under 4.5 -131 | exact | 9.0% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trey Yesavage Over | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -103 | BetOnline Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 8.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane McClanahan Under | GUA@RAY | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -128 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 6.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -139 | DK Under 4.5 -139 | exact | 6.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor Rogers Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -153 | DK Over 4.5 -153 | exact | 6.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Manaea Over | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -163 | DK Over 4.5 -163 | exact | 6.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Under | YAN@PHI | 6:46 PM | 7.5 | 7.1 | -146 | DK Under 7.5 -146 | exact | 5.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Spencer Arrighetti Under | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -128 | DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact | 5.0% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Patrick Sandoval Under | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -145 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -128 | best price | 4.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Roki Sasaki Over | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +124 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +130 | best price | 4.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Dustin May Under | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -116 | DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact | 4.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Webb Under | ANG@GIA | 10:16 PM | 6.5 | 6.3 | -149 | DK Under 6.5 -149 | exact | 2.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zebby Matthews Over | ATH@TWI | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +125 | DK Over 4.5 +125 | exact | 2.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.96 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Dustin May Under | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 17.5 | 14.5 | +110 | DK Under 17.5 +110 | exact | 16.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Webb Over | ANG@GIA | 10:16 PM | 18.5 | 20.5 | -114 | DK Over 18.5 -114 | exact | 10.7% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tarik Skubal Over | ROY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 20.3 | +102 | DK Over 18.5 +102 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Trevor Rogers Under | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 15.8 | +120 | DK Under 17.5 +120 | exact | 9.5% | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cam Schlittler Over | YAN@PHI | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 19.1 | -175 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -165 | best price | 9.3% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesus Luzardo Over | YAN@PHI | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 18.9 | -165 | DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact | 8.2% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shane Drohan Under | ROC@BRE | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.2 | -103 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 7.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | MacKenzie Gore Under | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 16.2 | +100 | DK Under 17.5 +100 | exact | 7.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryce Miller Over | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -148 | DK Over 17.5 -148 | exact | 6.2% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zebby Matthews Under | ATH@TWI | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.4 | +123 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | best price | 6.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Batter Hits | Geraldo Perdomo Under | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 0.8 | -259 | DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact | 43.4% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Jeremy Pena Under | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -258 | DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact | 41.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Tommy Edman Under | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -262 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price | 41.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Jacob Wilson Under | ATH@TWI | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -205 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -204 | best price | 41.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Jackson Chourio Under | ROC@BRE | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -232 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price | 40.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Gabriel Moreno Under | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -267 | DK Under 1.5 -267 | exact | 40.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Jake Mangum Under | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -205 | DK Under 1.5 -205 | exact | 39.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Corbin Carroll Under | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -261 | DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact | 38.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Ketel Marte Under | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -208 | DK Under 1.5 -208 | exact | 35.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -258 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price | 34.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Ozzie Albies Under | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -250 | DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact | 31.4% | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Andy Pages Under | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -256 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price | 29.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Drake Baldwin Under | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -249 | DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact | 29.1% | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Ernie Clement Under | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -198 | DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact | 25.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Michael Harris II Under | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -261 | DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact | 24.3% | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Kevin McGonigle Under | ROY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -254 | DK Under 1.5 -254 | exact | 23.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | William Contreras Under | ROC@BRE | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -253 | DK Under 1.5 -253 | exact | 20.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Nick Gonzales Under | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -236 | DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact | 17.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Yordan Alvarez Under | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -222 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price | 15.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Luis Arraez Under | ANG@GIA | 10:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -220 | DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Otto Lopez Under | PAD@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -202 | DK Under 1.5 -202 | exact | 2.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Yordan Alvarez Over | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -129 | BetOnline Over 1.5 -122 | best price | 69.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Otto Lopez Over | PAD@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -108 | DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact | 50.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | James Wood Over | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +102 | DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact | 49.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Dillon Dingler Over | ROY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +107 | DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact | 48.4% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jordan Walker Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +105 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price | 43.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | CJ Abrams Over | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +122 | DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact | 40.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Alec Burleson Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +107 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price | 39.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Juan Soto Over | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +124 | DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact | 36.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Shohei Ohtani Over | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -101 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price | 32.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Miguel Vargas Over | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +116 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price | 26.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Riley Greene Over | ROY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +102 | DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact | 25.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Andy Pages Over | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +102 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price | 23.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kyle Stowers Over | PAD@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +113 | DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact | 23.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Elly De La Cruz Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +117 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price | 22.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Geraldo Perdomo Under | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -146 | DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact | 22.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Freddie Freeman Over | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +129 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price | 21.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | JJ Wetherholt Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +128 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price | 18.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Caleb Durbin Under | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -184 | DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact | 18.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Corbin Carroll Over | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -109 | DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact | 17.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Sal Stewart Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +123 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price | 14.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Daylen Lile Over | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +136 | DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact | 14.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | J.P. Crawford Under | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -195 | DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact | 13.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Isaac Paredes Over | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +143 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price | 13.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Daulton Varsho Under | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -192 | DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact | 13.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kevin McGonigle Over | ROY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +102 | DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact | 13.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ildemaro Vargas Under | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -182 | DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact | 12.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nolan Arenado Under | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -170 | DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact | 11.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ketel Marte Over | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -124 | DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -150 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -141 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Carter Jensen Under | ROY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -164 | DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact | 10.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Willson Contreras Over | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +119 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price | 10.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kyle Tucker Under | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -193 | DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact | 9.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Xavier Edwards Over | PAD@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +118 | DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Josh Naylor Under | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -190 | DK Under 1.5 -190 | exact | 8.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Gabriel Moreno Over | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +109 | DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact | 7.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Curtis Mead Over | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +137 | DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact | 7.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Dylan Crews Over | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +141 | DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact | 7.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Julio Rodriguez Over | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +114 | DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact | 7.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Randy Arozarena Over | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +120 | DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact | 7.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Mookie Betts Over | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +129 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Tommy Edman Over | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +109 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ernie Clement Over | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -102 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jeremy Pena Over | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +118 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price | 5.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Wilyer Abreu Over | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +114 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Bo Bichette Over | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +138 | DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact | 4.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Gleyber Torres Over | ROY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +136 | DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact | 3.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ceddanne Rafaela Over | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +127 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Heriberto Hernandez Over | PAD@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +136 | DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact | 3.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Javier Sanoja Over | PAD@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +146 | DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact | 3.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Brandon Nimmo Under | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -156 | DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact | 3.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Spencer Steer Under | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -194 | DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Wyatt Langford Over | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +125 | DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jose Altuve Over | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +150 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | George Springer Over | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +133 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Alejandro Kirk Over | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +152 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Masataka Yoshida Over | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +146 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Anthony Seigler Over | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +142 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kazuma Okamoto Under | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -189 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -182 | best price | 0.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Total | Over 7.5 | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 7.5 | - | -112 | LowVig Over 7.5 -109 | best price | +17.6% | –✓–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Total | Over 7.5 | GUA@RAY | 7:11 PM | 7.5 | - | -107 | LowVig Over 7.5 -102 | best price | +17.1% | –✓–––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | F5 Total | Under 5.5 | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | - | -118 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 | exact | +11.6% | –✓!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | F5 Total | Over 3.5 | GUA@RAY | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | - | -146 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -145 | best price | +8.7% | –✓!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | - | 6.5 | -122 | DraftKings -122 | +19.9% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | - | 6.4 | -138 | DraftKings -138 | +15.2% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | - | 5.1 | -102 | DraftKings -102 | +8.6% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | YAN@PHI | 6:46 PM | - | 5.5 | -122 | DraftKings -122 | +8.5% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ROY@TIG | 6:41 PM | - | 5.7 | -132 | DraftKings -132 | +8.1% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | GUA@RAY | 7:11 PM | - | 5.3 | -140 | DraftKings -140 | +3.2% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | - | 4.1 | +114 | DraftKings +114 | +0.2% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | - | 3.9 | -108 | DraftKings -108 | -7.6% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ROC@BRE | 4:11 PM | - | 4.0 | -122 | DraftKings -122 | -9.3% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | - | 3.6 | -106 | DraftKings -106 | -9.8% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | - | 3.8 | -120 | DraftKings -120 | -11.2% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | - | 3.5 | -108 | DraftKings -108 | -11.9% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ANG@GIA | 10:16 PM | - | 3.7 | -132 | DraftKings -132 | -14.1% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ATH@TWI | 8:11 PM | - | 2.4 | +102 | DraftKings +102 | -19.5% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | PAD@MAR | 7:11 PM | - | 3.1 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -60.1% | –✗–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High NRFI/YRFI edge 28% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | ATH@TWI | 8:11 PM | - | 7.6 | -130 | DraftKings -130 | +28.5% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High NRFI/YRFI edge 23% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | ANG@GIA | 10:16 PM | - | 6.3 | +104 | DraftKings +104 | +23.2% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High NRFI/YRFI edge 21% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | DOD@MET | 7:11 PM | - | 6.5 | -118 | DraftKings -118 | +20.9% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High NRFI/YRFI edge 20% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | JAY@SOX | 7:16 PM | - | 6.2 | -106 | DraftKings -106 | +20.2% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | ROC@BRE | 4:11 PM | - | 6.0 | -104 | DraftKings -104 | +18.4% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | - | 6.2 | -118 | DraftKings -118 | +16.6% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | - | 5.7 | -120 | DraftKings -120 | +10.8% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | DIA@NAT | 6:46 PM | - | 5.9 | -146 | DraftKings -146 | +8.7% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | GUA@RAY | 7:11 PM | - | 4.7 | +110 | DraftKings +110 | +5.9% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | ROY@TIG | 6:41 PM | - | 4.3 | +104 | DraftKings +104 | +1.0% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | YAN@PHI | 6:46 PM | - | 4.5 | -104 | DraftKings -104 | +0.5% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | AST@SOX | 7:41 PM | - | 4.9 | -125 | DraftKings -125 | +0.3% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | - | 3.6 | +108 | DraftKings +108 | -6.2% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | CUB@PIR | 6:41 PM | - | 3.5 | -104 | DraftKings -104 | -10.8% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | YRFI | YRFI | PAD@MAR | 7:11 PM | - | 6.2 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -19.1% | –––––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | MacKenzie Gore Over | MAR@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -154 | DK Over 5.5 -154 | exact | 13.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Drohan Over | ROC@BRE | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -128 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -125 | best price | 8.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grant Holmes Over | BRA@ORI | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -135 | DK Over 4.5 -135 | exact | 4.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context