MLB Bets 2026-07-22

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	176W–135L–0P	57%	-13.06 u	Last 14 days • 311 settled
Grade A	19W–14L–0P	58%	+0.69 u
Grade B	157W–121L–0P	56%	-13.76 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2145W–1531L–8P	58%	-139.05 u	All-time • 3684 settled
Grade A	221W–159L–0P	58%	+6.45 u
Grade B	1924W–1372L–8P	58%	-145.50 u

46 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	K Prop	Dean Kremer	4.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	K Prop	Hunter Dobbins	3.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	K Prop	Jake Bennett	4.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	K Prop	Martin Perez	4.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	K Prop	Sandy Alcantara	4.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	K Prop	Seth Lugo	4.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Earned Run	Dean Kremer	3.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Earned Run	Emerson Hancock	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Earned Run	Jake Bennett	2.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Earned Run	Keider Montero	1.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Earned Run	Landen Roupp	2.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Earned Run	Merrill Kelly	2.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Earned Run	Mitch Keller	2.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Earned Run	Seth Lugo	2.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Hits Allow	Dean Kremer	5.5	-104	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Hits Allow	Eric Lauer	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Hits Allow	Griffin Jax	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hunter Dobbins	5.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jake Bennett	5.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Hits Allow	Landen Roupp	5.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Hits Allow	Peter Lambert	5.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Walks	Christian Scott	1.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Walks	Keider Montero	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Walks	Merrill Kelly	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Walks	Mitch Keller	1.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Walks	Peter Lambert	1.5	-181	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-22	Pitcher Walks	Reid Detmers	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-21	K Prop	Luis Castillo	6.5	-157	-	WIN	+0.637	Luis Castillo: 3.0 (line 6.5)
2026-07-21	K Prop	Framber Valdez	4.5	-126	-	LOSS	-1.000	Framber Valdez: 1.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-21	K Prop	Kumar Rocker	4.5	-146	-	WIN	+0.685	Kumar Rocker: 6.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-21	K Prop	Luis Castillo	5.5	-107	-	WIN	+0.935	Luis Castillo: 3.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	442	57%	+0.75u	59	53%	-4.29u	205	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	388	59%	+17.12u	49	55%	-1.51u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	389	58%	-3.84u	91	56%	-5.40u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	280	60%	-11.07u	66	65%	+3.55u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	108	45%	-15.11u	8	50%	-1.09u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 28 total candidate(s); season N 442, 14d N 59	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 12 total candidate(s); season N 388, 14d N 49	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 33 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 33/33 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 108, 14d N 8	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 755 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 318 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 734 pitcher(s), 3227 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 558 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 33 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 10 team(s), 90 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 391 hitter(s) \| 33 SP matchup(s), 1412 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 90 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 7 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Athletics, Los Angeles Angels
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Athletics
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 6 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 350 market side(s) checked \| 350 opening snapshot(s) created \| 12 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 17 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 604 \| batter bats 396 \| batter hand splits 148 \| pitcher HR splits 57 \| batter pitch-type 558 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 17 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees	1:06 PM	+157	-191	+1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals	2:11 PM	-136	+113	-1.5 (+124)	+1.5 (-149)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+134	-162	+1.5 (-164)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	-144	+119	-1.5 (+104)	+1.5 (-126)	O/U 11.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks	3:41 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	3:41 PM	+130	-157	+1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels	4:08 PM	+110	-132	+1.5 (-187)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:40 PM	-120	+100	-1.5 (+129)	+1.5 (-156)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	+104	-126	+1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees	7:05 PM	+139	-168	+1.5 (-144)	-1.5 (+120)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	-109	-110	-1.5 (+154)	+1.5 (-187)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	7:10 PM	+114	-137	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-103	-117	-1.5 (+154)	+1.5 (-187)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	+104	-125	+1.5 (-208)	-1.5 (+170)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+151)	+1.5 (-184)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+161)	+1.5 (-197)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 19 Grade B | 77 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -164	K Prop	Jake Bennett Over	ORI@SOX	7:10 PM	4.5	5.8	-164	BetOnline Over 4.5 -143 \| best price	28.4%	✓✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: juiced K over -143, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Dean Kremer Over	ORI@SOX	7:10 PM	4.5	5.5	-143	BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 \| best price	23.4%	✓✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (5 play(s))

K Prop - Hunter Dobbins Over

Projection: 4.8Displayed: Over 4.5 +110Market line: majority 3.5 | avg 3.83Recommended: FanDuel Over 3.5 -180 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 3.83 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.83

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Seth Lugo Under

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.75

Pitcher Earned Runs - Dean Kremer Under

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

K Prop - Merrill Kelly Under

Projection: 4.0Displayed: Under 4.5 -163Market line: majority 3.5 | avg 3.83Recommended: FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 3.83 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.83

Pitcher Outs - Gerrit Cole Under

Projection: 16.4Displayed: Under 18.5 -174Market line: majority 17.5 | avg 17.7Recommended: DK Under 18.5 -174 | exactOwn-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.7 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Selected line 18.5 is split from majority 17.5 / avg 17.7

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 4.5 (-164) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-143	+110	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-152	+114	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-164	+128	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-150	+118	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 28.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jake Bennett: K/9 7.0, proj 5.8K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.7% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Felix Neon — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 28.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 25% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.1%, L7 29.7%, season 24.4% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/9 (33%) | L20 3/9 (33%) | Season 3/9 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.22 | Season Avg 4.22
Prop trend: K L10: 3/9 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -164 -- A risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 4.5 (-143) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-150	+112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-143	+112	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-150	+118	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 23.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.05K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Dean Kremer: K/9 9.4, proj 5.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.6% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: Split-Finger (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Felix Neon — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 1.9% | AVG .346 | OPS .801
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 23.5%, L7 20.0%, season 21.9%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.8% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: K L10: 3/5 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: juiced K over -143, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (19 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 (-159) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -159

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-169	+129	-
BetRivers	4.5	-165	+123	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
DK	4.5	-159	+125	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-166	+130	-
BetMGM	5.5	+130	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 27.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.21K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.0% / under 42.0%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 7.5, proj 5.7K over 6.4 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .232 | OPS .607
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 73 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.3%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
K% trend: support +3.3 ppts (recent 22.1% vs season 18.8%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -159 -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 4.5 (-126) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 4.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 4.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+122	-159	-
BetRivers	4.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 25.7% vs 17% min; cushion -1.16K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Seth Lugo: K/9 7.6, proj 3.3K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.4% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.357 | top pitch: Cutter (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Malachi Moore — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Cutter: 18.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.050
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.6%, L7 26.6%, season 21.1%, top-6 15.4%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 15.4% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.45
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Weather: -7% run env ✓ Under | Opp lineup wRC+ 108 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Peter Lambert Under 5.5 (-156) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.72 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 9.5%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 17.0%, L7 29.8%, season 21.8% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hunter Dobbins Under 5.5 (-148) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 9.1%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Dobbins: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 25.8%, L7 26.3%, season 25.1%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/5 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eric Lauer Under 5.5 (-153) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.87 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 8.3%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 70 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .219 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.1%, L7 29.1%, season 23.8%, BVP 24.3%/70 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/15 (73%) | Season 11/15 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Merrill Kelly Over 1.5 (-124) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2657826471592464 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.6 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .216 | OPS .784
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 20.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 18.9%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 14.4%, L7 6.6%, season 9.1%, BVP 0.0%/37 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/17 (82%) | Season 14/17 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-174) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-174	+131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-175	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.229489520958791 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.7%, L7 23.6%, season 21.1% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.4%, split 11.3%, L7 12.2%, season 10.7% (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Peter Lambert Over 1.5 (-181) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-181	+135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.210127595670692 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 5.4 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 60.2% / under 39.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 17.0%, L7 29.8%, season 21.8% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 10.0%, L7 6.2%, season 8.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-181); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Mitch Keller Over 1.5 (-139) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9296649721440886 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.3 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Mitch Keller: 52 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .364 | OPS 1.007
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.9%, L7 22.7%, season 24.0%, top-6 21.3%, BVP 15.4%/52 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 12.2%, L7 7.6%, season 10.0%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Keider Montero Under 1.5 (-147) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.2044107276066336 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 4.4 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 2.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.20x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .278 | OPS 1.239
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.3%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.9%, split 11.8%, L7 13.9%, season 11.2%, BVP 10.0%/20 PA (adj 1.20x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/21 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 9 play(s) (B 9)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-126) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	-
DK	2.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 44.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.88 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 5.14, ERA 4.68)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .216 | OPS .784
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 20.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 18.9%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Emerson Hancock Over 1.5 (-140) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	-
DK	1.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 3.74)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 25 PA | K% 16.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .292 | OPS .653
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 24.0%, L7 18.5%, season 24.7%, BVP 16.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Under 3.5 (-151) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 31.4% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 4.22)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 1.9% | AVG .346 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 23.5%, L7 20.0%, season 21.9%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/5 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Under 2.5 (-154) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.73 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 3.37)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.7%, L7 23.6%, season 21.1% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Keider Montero Over 1.5 (-163) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-163	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.59, ERA 2.86)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 2.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .278 | OPS 1.239
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.3%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-163) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-126) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	-105	-
DK	2.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.15 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.49, ERA 5.24)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.050
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.6%, L7 26.6%, season 21.1%, top-6 15.4%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Keller Over 2.5 (-156) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+115	-
DK	2.5	-156	+117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.15 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.60, ERA 5.15)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.3 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Mitch Keller: 52 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .364 | OPS 1.007
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.9%, L7 22.7%, season 24.0%, top-6 21.3%, BVP 15.4%/52 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Bennett Under 2.5 (-143) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.05 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.95, ERA 2.25)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.1%, L7 29.7%, season 24.4% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/9 (78%) | L20 7/9 (78%) | Season 7/9 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.56 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/9 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-153) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.54 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.74, ERA 3.77)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Landen Roupp: 10 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .856
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 23.2%, L7 21.8%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.3%, BVP 10.0%/10 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (77 signal(s))

▸ Pitcher Outs — 8 play(s) (A 1 | B 1 | C 6)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Outs — Seth Lugo Under 17.5 (-104) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 17.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 17.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 17.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	Recommended
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
DK	17.5	-128	-104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	-102	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 14.482 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 17.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.49 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.050
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.6%, L7 26.6%, season 21.1%, top-6 15.4%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 6.5%, L7 7.0%, season 6.7%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.60 | Season Avg 16.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Landen Roupp Under 17.5 (+111) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 17.321 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.74 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Landen Roupp: 10 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .856
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 23.2%, L7 21.8%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.3%, BVP 10.0%/10 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 9.8%, L7 5.7%, season 8.4%, BVP 10.0%/10 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gerrit Cole Under 18.5 (-174) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.7 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 17.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+135	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	-
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+132	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-
DK	18.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.399 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.04 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.7 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 75 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .145 | OPS .460
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 21.9%, L7 27.8%, season 24.1%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 34.7%/75 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.7%, L7 7.5%, season 9.5%, BVP 8.0%/75 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 18.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.10 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.10 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 (+111) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	18.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+115	-155	-
DK	18.5	+111	-148	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+118	-158	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	18.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.47 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 10.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.16 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 109)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 109
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .232 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.3%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.2%, L7 10.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.5%/73 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.10 | Season Avg 19.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 (+109) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	17.5	-155	+115	-
DK	17.5	-145	+109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-154	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 15.955 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.5 IP (xFIP 5.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .216 | OPS .784
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 20.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 18.9%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 14.4%, L7 6.6%, season 9.1%, BVP 0.0%/37 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brady Singer Under 17.5 (-117) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-115	-125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-104	-130	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.532 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 112 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .221 | OPS .710
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.1%, L7 20.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 22.3%/112 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.0%, L7 10.2%, season 9.0%, BVP 5.4%/112 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 15.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Peter Lambert Under 17.5 (-106) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-130	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
DK	17.5	-125	-106	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.637 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.41 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 17.0%, L7 29.8%, season 21.8% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 10.0%, L7 6.2%, season 8.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Over 17.5 (-112) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 17.5 -112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-115	-125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-112	-118	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	17.5	-112	-122	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.675 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.71 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reid Detmers: 17 PA | K% 52.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 15.6%, L7 21.5%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 52.9%/17 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 11.3%, L7 9.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (5/6); lineup K% 18.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 21 play(s) (A 1 | B 2 | C 18)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — Michael King Over 1.5 (-171) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.116095668880425 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 5.4 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.1% / under 40.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 82 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .228 | OPS .535
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.6%, L7 20.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 24.4%/82 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.3%, L7 9.8%, season 8.1%, BVP 3.7%/82 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Martin Perez Over 1.5 (+118) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.113523880088224 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.6%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 96 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .272 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 21.0%, L7 15.9%, season 22.4%, BVP 13.5%/96 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 8.7%, L7 12.4%, season 9.2%, BVP 12.5%/96 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.9% (1 books) — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-177) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-175	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.395851401959863 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 5.5 IP (BB% 10.3%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Landen Roupp: 10 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .856
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 23.2%, L7 21.8%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.3%, BVP 10.0%/10 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 9.8%, L7 5.7%, season 8.4%, BVP 10.0%/10 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Colin Rea Over 1.5 (-152) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8547383190225013 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .077 | OPS .220
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.7%, L7 24.6%, season 23.2% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.7%, L7 6.2%, season 9.4% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Anthony Kay Over 1.5 (-148) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-148	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7918853415465354 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.6%, L7 22.5%, season 22.3% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.8%, L7 6.3%, season 8.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Reid Detmers Over 1.5 (-113) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7837019755533117 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reid Detmers: 17 PA | K% 52.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 15.6%, L7 21.5%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 52.9%/17 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 11.3%, L7 9.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (5/6); lineup K% 18.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sandy Alcantara Over 1.5 (-119) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7676508072701747 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 6.2 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .232 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.3%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.2%, L7 10.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.5%/73 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Eric Lauer Over 1.5 (+137) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7465587487794907 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 70 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .219 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.1%, L7 29.1%, season 23.8%, BVP 24.3%/70 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 9.5%, L7 6.7%, season 7.9%, BVP 7.1%/70 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hunter Dobbins Over 1.5 (-123) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7419228486956446 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Dobbins: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 25.8%, L7 26.3%, season 25.1%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.7%, L7 9.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Aaron Nola Over 1.5 (-179) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 60.0% / Under 40.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-179	+134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7305345420134746 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.9 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 60.0% / under 40.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 252 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .662
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.1%, L7 25.4%, season 20.6%, BVP 15.9%/252 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 12.3%, L7 7.9%, season 10.3%, BVP 6.3%/252 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gage Jump Over 1.5 (-119) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6699609509042177 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 13.9%, L7 20.3%, season 19.6% (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 8.2%, L7 11.1%, season 8.6% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emerson Hancock Under 1.5 (-145) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3388043363253184 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 4.9 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 25 PA | K% 16.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .292 | OPS .653
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 24.0%, L7 18.5%, season 24.7%, BVP 16.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.8%, L7 6.9%, season 9.6%, BVP 4.0%/25 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Slade Cecconi Under 1.5 (-163) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+115	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3508864569486483 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Slade Cecconi: 37 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .257 | OPS .585
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 21.6%/37 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 7.4%, L7 7.4%, season 8.6%, BVP 2.7%/37 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bailey Ober Under 1.5 (-110) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3651460322273934 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.1 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 102 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .204 | OPS .554
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 16.7%, L7 23.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 19.6%/102 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 10.2%, L7 6.8%, season 9.6%, BVP 2.9%/102 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Brady Singer Over 1.5 (-155) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-155	+117	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6277763390691153 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 112 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .221 | OPS .710
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.1%, L7 20.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 22.3%/112 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.0%, L7 10.2%, season 9.0%, BVP 5.4%/112 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Henderson Over 1.5 (+153) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +153

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+153	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.608464379033956 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.9 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 37.0% / under 63.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.8%, L7 26.3%, season 22.1%, lineup 20.3% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.2%, L7 11.5%, season 8.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); lineup K% 20.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/7 (14%) | L20 1/7 (14%) | Season 1/7 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/7 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jake Bennett Over 1.5 (+115) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5857056052457545 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.8 IP (BB% 5.8%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.1%, L7 29.7%, season 24.4% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.2%, L7 10.4%, season 10.2% (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/9 (33%) | L20 3/9 (33%) | Season 3/9 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/9 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Griffin Jax Over 1.5 (+136) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5419238186678028 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.5 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 39.6% / under 60.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 78 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .206 | OPS .666
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 19.0%, L7 17.1%, season 19.5%, BVP 14.1%/78 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 6.8%, L7 7.9%, season 7.4%, BVP 11.5%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/26 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gerrit Cole Under 1.5 (-153) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4599576914852679 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 75 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .145 | OPS .460
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 21.9%, L7 27.8%, season 24.1%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 34.7%/75 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.7%, L7 7.5%, season 9.5%, BVP 8.0%/75 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Dean Kremer Under 1.5 (+101) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-135	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.495385884888712 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.6% / under 46.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 1.9% | AVG .346 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 23.5%, L7 20.0%, season 21.9%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.7%, split 6.8%, L7 8.2%, season 8.0%, BVP 1.9%/53 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Seth Lugo Over 1.5 (+105) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.5045962369767276 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.050
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.6%, L7 26.6%, season 21.1%, top-6 15.4%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 6.5%, L7 7.0%, season 6.7%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 5 | C 19)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 5.5 (-139) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 5.67 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+130	-180	-
BetOnline	5.5	-143	+110	-
BetRivers	5.5	-143	+108	-
DK	5.5	-139	+109	SelectedRecommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	+145	-190	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	6.5	+144	-186	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 18.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.04K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Reid Detmers: K/9 10.2, proj 6.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Bellino — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 24.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reid Detmers: 17 PA | K% 52.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .607
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 15.6%, L7 21.5%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 52.9%/17 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.3% (5/6); lineup K% 18.6% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Emerson Hancock Under 5.5 (-115) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-116	-111	-
BetRivers	5.5	-113	-118	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	-
DK	5.5	-110	-115	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-120	-106	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 12.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.68K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.5% / under 50.5%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Emerson Hancock: K/9 8.5, proj 4.8K over 5.1 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 25 PA | K% 16.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .292 | OPS .653
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 24.0%, L7 18.5%, season 24.7%, BVP 16.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Slade Cecconi Over 3.5 (-151) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+121	-
BetRivers	3.5	-157	+117	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-151	+118	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.31K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Slade Cecconi: K/9 6.5, proj 3.8K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Curveball: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Slade Cecconi: 37 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .257 | OPS .585
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 21.6%/37 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.05
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Logan Henderson Under 5.5 (+100) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+160	-225	-
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-127	+100	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-122	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.47K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.8% / under 47.2%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Logan Henderson: K/9 9.4, proj 5.0K over 4.9 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.9 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Andy Fletcher — 8.2 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.98x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 24.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.8%, L7 26.3%, season 22.1%, lineup 20.3% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; lineup K% 20.3% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.43 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Hunter Dobbins Over 4.5 (+110) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -180 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 3.83 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -180 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-185	+142	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-185	+140	-
FanDuel	3.5	-180	+140	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	4.5	+108	-143	-
DK	4.5	+110	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.26K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.80
Hunter Dobbins: K/9 9.0, proj 4.8K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Slider (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Bellino — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Slider: 38.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Dobbins: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .695
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 25.8%, L7 26.3%, season 25.1%, active roster 25.6%/6 hitters, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.60
Prop trend: K L10: 2/5 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Mitch Keller Under 4.5 (-143) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
BetRivers	4.5	+116	-155	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.95K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Mitch Keller: K/9 6.7, proj 3.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.3 outs/5.1 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.4% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Sweeper (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Quinn Wolcott — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 25.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Mitch Keller: 52 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .364 | OPS 1.007
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.9%, L7 22.7%, season 24.0%, top-6 21.3%, BVP 15.4%/52 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.3% (4/6); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.05
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Griffin Jax Over 4.5 (-112) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-110	-118	-
BetRivers	4.5	-112	-120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	-112	-114	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-108	-118	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.76K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Griffin Jax: K/9 9.7, proj 5.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.6% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 78 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .206 | OPS .666
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 19.0%, L7 17.1%, season 19.5%, BVP 14.1%/78 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/26 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 2.96
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +2.34 vs season
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 28.2% vs season 24.7%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bailey Ober Under 4.5 (-154) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -154

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	4.5	+128	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+121	-154	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.74K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Bailey Ober: K/9 6.9, proj 3.8K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 102 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .204 | OPS .554
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 102 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 16.7%, L7 23.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 19.6%/102 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gabriel Hughes Under 4.5 (-142) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 3.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-167	+128	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	-
BetRivers	4.5	+128	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+112	-142	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 15.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.69K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.6% / under 55.4%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Gabriel Hughes: K/9 8.7, proj 3.8K over 4.9 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.258 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 1% usage)
Umpire: Clint Vondrak — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 19.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.3%, L7 23.0%, season 21.5%, active roster 20.8%/8 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.67 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 1/3 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 (+117) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+117	-149	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 14.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.81K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Cade Cavalli: K/9 11.0, proj 6.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Clint Vondrak — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 34.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.2%, L7 18.0%, season 22.6%, top-6 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.3% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +9.0 ppts (recent 35.2% vs season 26.2%, proj adj +4.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael King Over 4.5 (-101) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+102	-132	-
BetRivers	4.5	+102	-136	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.56K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael King: K/9 7.5, proj 5.1K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 82 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .228 | OPS .535
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 82 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.6%, L7 20.7%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.9%/7 hitters, BVP 24.4%/82 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 5.5 (+119) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+118	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetRivers	5.5	+116	-155	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+119	-152	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Peter Lambert: K/9 9.7, proj 6.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 34.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 17.0%, L7 29.8%, season 21.8% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.69
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +4.2 ppts (recent 28.2% vs season 24.0%, proj adj +2.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 (-163) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 3.83 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 3.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	3.5	-167	+128	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	3.5	-167	+125	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+300	-550	-
DK	4.5	+128	-163	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.46K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.80
Merrill Kelly: K/9 5.8, proj 4.0K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.5% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.406 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Bill Miller — 9.0 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.03x)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .216 | OPS .784
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 20.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 18.9%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.65
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Martin Perez Under 3.5 (-126) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-103	-125	-
BetRivers	3.5	+100	-132	-
DK	3.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.30K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Martin Perez: K/9 6.4, proj 3.2K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.3% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 27.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 96 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .272 | OPS .721
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 96 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 21.0%, L7 15.9%, season 22.4%, BVP 13.5%/96 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.44
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 101 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Keider Montero Over 3.5 (-113) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-104	-123	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	-110	-121	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-113	-113	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.29K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Keider Montero: K/9 7.7, proj 3.8K over 4.5 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 2.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.9% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .278 | OPS 1.239
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.3%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.6%/7 hitters, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
K% trend: support +10.0 ppts (recent 27.5% vs season 17.5%, proj adj +5.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs RHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Colin Rea Under 4.5 (-131) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -131

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	-
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
BetRivers	4.5	-112	-120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	+102	-131	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.36K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.6% / under 53.4%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Colin Rea: K/9 6.8, proj 4.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 13.4% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 35.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .077 | OPS .220
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.7%, L7 24.6%, season 23.2% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Weather: -7% run env ✓ Under | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 (-112) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	6.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	6.5	-111	-116	-
BetRivers	6.5	-114	-117	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-102	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.52K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Gerrit Cole: K/9 9.5, proj 6.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 19.2% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Slider (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Quinn Wolcott — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 35.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 75 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .145 | OPS .460
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 75 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 21.9%, L7 27.8%, season 24.1%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 34.7%/75 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.8% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Aaron Nola Under 5.5 (-133) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	5.5	+107	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+104	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.37K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Aaron Nola: K/9 9.7, proj 5.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.9 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 28.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 252 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .662
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 252 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.1%, L7 25.4%, season 20.6%, BVP 15.9%/252 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Anthony Kay Under 4.5 (-138) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 4.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 4.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
BetRivers	4.5	+102	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.7, proj 4.2K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 13.9% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.6%, L7 22.5%, season 22.3%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brady Singer Under 5.5 (-151) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	4.5	-167	+125	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+119	-151	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.22K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.2% / under 56.8%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Brady Singer: K/9 8.1, proj 5.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.348 | top pitch: Sweeper (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 112 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .221 | OPS .710
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 112 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.1%, L7 20.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 22.3%/112 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.32
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 24.2% vs season 19.2%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eric Lauer Over 3.5 (-119) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-106	-122	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	-121	-110	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.07K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Eric Lauer: K/9 5.4, proj 3.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.1% | put-away% 12.5% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: Cutter (21% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Cutter: 25.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 70 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .219 | OPS .697
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 70 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 24.1%, L7 29.1%, season 23.8%, active roster 23.3%/8 hitters, BVP 24.3%/70 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.3% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 3.13
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Landen Roupp Over 5.5 (+116) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+130	-169	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+116	-148	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.07K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Landen Roupp: K/9 8.6, proj 5.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.287 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Malachi Moore — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Landen Roupp: 10 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .856
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 23.2%, L7 21.8%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.3%, BVP 10.0%/10 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.58
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 101 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gage Jump Over 4.5 (-107) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+102	-132	-
BetRivers	4.5	+106	-141	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	-107	-119	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.03K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Gage Jump: K/9 10.6, proj 4.5K over 4.9 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Slider (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Bill Miller — 9.0 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.03x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 25.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 13.9%, L7 20.3%, season 19.6% (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.60
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 29.1% vs season 25.3%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Christian Scott Over 5.5 (-122) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-123	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-122	-105	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.00K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Christian Scott: K/9 11.0, proj 5.5K over 4.7 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Andy Fletcher — 8.2 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.98x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.7%, L7 23.6%, season 21.1% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.54
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 32.0% vs season 28.5%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (B 1 | C 8)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Under 6.5 (-161) Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.75 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	-160	+110	-
DK	6.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.5 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.49, BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.75 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.050
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.6%, L7 26.6%, season 21.1%, top-6 15.4%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dean Kremer Under 5.5 (+118) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +118

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-157	+118	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 1.9% | AVG .346 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 23.5%, L7 20.0%, season 21.9%, top-6 19.8%, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/5 under 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brady Singer Under 5.5 (-122) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 112 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .221 | OPS .710
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.1%, L7 20.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 22.3%/112 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 (-140) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 6.2%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 75 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .145 | OPS .460
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 21.9%, L7 27.8%, season 24.1%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 34.7%/75 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 (-114) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 6.2 IP (WHIP 1.21, BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .232 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.3%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Under 6.5 (-157) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	6.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	6.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.1 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 9.3%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 37 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .216 | OPS .784
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 20.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 18.9%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gage Jump Over 5.5 (-103) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.51, BB% 8.0%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 13.9%, L7 20.3%, season 19.6% (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/10 (30%) | Season 3/10 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Aaron Nola Over 5.5 (+115) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.42, BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.9 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 252 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .662
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.1%, L7 25.4%, season 20.6%, BVP 15.9%/252 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Mitch Keller Under 5.5 (-157) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.3 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Mitch Keller: 52 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .364 | OPS 1.007
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.9%, L7 22.7%, season 24.0%, top-6 21.3%, BVP 15.4%/52 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Dobbins Under 2.5 (-115) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.39 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.08, ERA 4.22)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Dobbins: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 25.8%, L7 26.3%, season 25.1%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/5 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eric Lauer Over 2.5 (-124) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+100	-
DK	2.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.36 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 5.52, ERA 4.30)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 70 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .219 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.1%, L7 29.1%, season 23.8%, BVP 24.3%/70 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Jax Under 2.5 (-173) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+130	-173	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 3.65, ERA 4.36)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.7% / under 59.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 78 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .206 | OPS .666
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 19.0%, L7 17.1%, season 19.5%, BVP 14.1%/78 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/26 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Henderson Over 1.5 (-129) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.28 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 3.32)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.9 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.8%, L7 26.3%, season 22.1%, lineup 20.3% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); lineup K% 20.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.57 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/7 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gage Jump Under 2.5 (-135) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.12 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 4.72)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 13.9%, L7 20.3%, season 19.6% (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bailey Ober Over 2.5 (+103) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.87 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.74, ERA 5.02)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 102 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .204 | OPS .554
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 16.7%, L7 23.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 19.6%/102 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Under 2.5 (-125) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.63 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 2.92)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 17.0%, L7 29.8%, season 21.8% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Singer Over 2.5 (-129) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.56 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 4.01)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 112 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .221 | OPS .710
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.1%, L7 20.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 22.3%/112 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-148) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+111	-148	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.71, ERA 4.75)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reid Detmers: 17 PA | K% 52.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 15.6%, L7 21.5%, season 20.5%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 52.9%/17 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (5/6); lineup K% 18.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gerrit Cole Under 2.5 (-129) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
DK	2.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.04, ERA 4.55)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 75 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .145 | OPS .460
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 21.9%, L7 27.8%, season 24.1%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 34.7%/75 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Aaron Nola Over 2.5 (-139) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+110	-
DK	2.5	-139	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 5.67)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.9 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.3% / under 45.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 252 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .227 | OPS .662
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.1%, L7 25.4%, season 20.6%, BVP 15.9%/252 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Slade Cecconi Under 2.5 (-156) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+117	-156	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.45 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.32)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Slade Cecconi: 37 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .257 | OPS .585
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 21.6%/37 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Colin Rea Over 2.5 (+123) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.89 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.73, ERA 4.16)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .077 | OPS .220
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.7%, L7 24.6%, season 23.2% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (-108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.83 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 3.60)
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .232 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.3%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Kay Under 2.5 (-122) Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.91 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.95, ERA 3.89)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.6%, L7 22.5%, season 22.3% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

33 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	64.5	58.2	74.5	4	Changeup (34% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	63.3	49.6	81.0	7	Changeup (31% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.253, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals	62.9	61.9	67.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	60.5	43.3	78.5	6	4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 55% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.258, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	58.6	52.2	66.5	7	Changeup (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	57.9	48.3	73.0	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	57.0	59.0	57.5	4	Slider (31% whiff, 50% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	57.0	52.1	64.0	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Alexander	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	55.6	43.6	68.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (35% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	53.7	53.1	56.0	4	Curveball (42% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	53.0	55.2	49.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	52.8	57.1	50.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	52.1	56.0	50.5	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	51.8	45.4	58.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	51.5	50.0	55.0	6	Slider (26% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	51.5	42.6	61.0	5	Slider (24% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	51.0	71.8	32.0	6	Changeup (42% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	48.7	61.8	38.0	6	Split-Finger (44% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	48.4	37.1	62.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	48.3	45.5	50.5	6	Slider (31% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds	48.3	51.7	47.0	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	45.5	51.1	42.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	45.0	40.3	48.0	6	Sweeper (40% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	43.7	51.7	33.5	5	Sweeper (46% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	42.7	41.1	43.0	7	Curveball (30% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	41.6	41.3	42.5	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hunter Dobbins	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	41.2	49.2	34.5	6	Slider (25% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	39.4	45.4	31.5	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	36.3	39.7	31.0	7	Sweeper (24% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	36.0	32.3	37.0	5	Cutter (21% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers	34.4	37.6	30.0	7	Changeup (31% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.4%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants	34.4	37.4	29.0	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics	23.8	39.0	4.5	6	Slider (34% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.406, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

33 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics	R	15.0%	5.8	5.8	5.8	97	normal	full	4.50	95.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	26.0%	4.1	5.2	5.0	69	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	L	17.0%	4.8	5.1	5.1	80	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Dean Kremer	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	R	25.7%	5.2	5.2	5.4	87	normal	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	R	24.0%	6.5	5.7	6.0	109	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	L	20.4%	6.5	6.0	6.0	109	deep	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers	R	17.4%	5.2	5.2	5.2	87	normal	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	L	19.1%	4.5	4.8	4.7	76	short	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	R	20.9%	6.0	5.1	5.3	101	deep	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	R	16.6%	5.1	5.2	5.2	86	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	R	23.7%	4.7	5.7	5.5	79	short	full	78.50	21.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	R	21.0%	2.5	5.8	5.1	42	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	R	25.5%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants	R	19.2%	5.0	5.5	5.4	84	short	full	29.00	71.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	26.7%	5.2	5.7	5.6	87	normal	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	14.3%	5.8	5.1	5.2	97	normal	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	R	20.0%	6.5	6.5	6.5	109	deep	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	R	26.2%	5.0	4.8	5.0	84	short	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	17.8%	4.9	5.5	5.4	82	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	28.7%	4.5	4.6	4.6	76	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	24.5%	5.3	5.5	5.5	89	normal	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	22.2%	5.6	6.2	6.0	94	normal	full	81.00	19.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	24.7%	5.4	5.2	5.2	91	normal	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	R	18.1%	5.1	4.9	5.0	86	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	R	17.1%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	R	20.4%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	R	22.7%	5.8	5.5	6.0	97	normal	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds	R	23.2%	4.5	5.5	5.3	76	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Hunter Dobbins	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	R	23.4%	4.3	4.6	5.2	72	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	25.8%	5.2	4.4	4.6	87	normal	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Tyler Alexander	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	L	26.4%	1.0	1.0	3.7	17	short	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	26.8%	1.0	1.1	2.6	17	short	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	R	29.4%	5.4	5.0	5.1	91	normal	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Seth Lugo	Seth Lugo Under	San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	14.5	-3.0	17.2%	A	SMALL_PLAY	research	short	5.4	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees	18.5	16.4	-2.1	11.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.10 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros	18.5	20.5	2.0	10.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	109	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min
Merrill Kelly	Merrill Kelly Under	Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	16.0	-1.5	8.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brady Singer	Brady Singer Under	Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.3	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Peter Lambert	Peter Lambert Under	Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros	17.5	16.6	-0.9	4.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Landen Roupp	Landen Roupp Under	San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.0%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes