| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 442 | 57% | +0.75u | 59 | 53% | -4.29u | 205 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 388 | 59% | +17.12u | 49 | 55% | -1.51u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 389 | 58% | -3.84u | 91 | 56% | -5.40u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 280 | 60% | -11.07u | 66 | 65% | +3.55u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 108 | 45% | -15.11u | 8 | 50% | -1.09u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | 64.5 | 58.2 | 74.5 | 4 | Changeup (34% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 63.3 | 49.6 | 81.0 | 7 | Changeup (31% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.253, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | 62.9 | 61.9 | 67.0 | 5 | Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | 60.5 | 43.3 | 78.5 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 55% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.258, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | 58.6 | 52.2 | 66.5 | 7 | Changeup (36% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 57.9 | 48.3 | 73.0 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Braydon Fisher | Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 57.0 | 59.0 | 57.5 | 4 | Slider (31% whiff, 50% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | 57.0 | 52.1 | 64.0 | 5 | Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 55.6 | 43.6 | 68.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (35% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 53.7 | 53.1 | 56.0 | 4 | Curveball (42% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.0 | 55.2 | 49.5 | 6 | Curveball (41% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | 52.8 | 57.1 | 50.5 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | 52.1 | 56.0 | 50.5 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | 51.8 | 45.4 | 58.5 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.5 | 50.0 | 55.0 | 6 | Slider (26% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.5 | 42.6 | 61.0 | 5 | Slider (24% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | 51.0 | 71.8 | 32.0 | 6 | Changeup (42% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Dean Kremer | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 48.7 | 61.8 | 38.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (44% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | 48.4 | 37.1 | 62.5 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | 48.3 | 45.5 | 50.5 | 6 | Slider (31% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | 48.3 | 51.7 | 47.0 | 6 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | 45.5 | 51.1 | 42.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | 45.0 | 40.3 | 48.0 | 6 | Sweeper (40% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | 43.7 | 51.7 | 33.5 | 5 | Sweeper (46% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 42.7 | 41.1 | 43.0 | 7 | Curveball (30% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 41.6 | 41.3 | 42.5 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Dobbins | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | 41.2 | 49.2 | 34.5 | 6 | Slider (25% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | 39.4 | 45.4 | 31.5 | 6 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | 36.3 | 39.7 | 31.0 | 7 | Sweeper (24% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | 36.0 | 32.3 | 37.0 | 5 | Cutter (21% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | 34.4 | 37.6 | 30.0 | 7 | Changeup (31% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.4%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | 34.4 | 37.4 | 29.0 | 8 | Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | 23.8 | 39.0 | 4.5 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.406, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | R | 15.0% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 97 | normal | full | 4.50 | 95.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 26.0% | 4.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 69 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | L | 17.0% | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 80 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Dean Kremer | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | R | 25.7% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | R | 24.0% | 6.5 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 109 | deep | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 20.4% | 6.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 109 | deep | full | 73.00 | 27.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | R | 17.4% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 87 | normal | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | L | 19.1% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 76 | short | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | R | 20.9% | 6.0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 101 | deep | full | 33.50 | 66.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | R | 16.6% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | R | 23.7% | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 79 | short | full | 78.50 | 21.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | R | 21.0% | 2.5 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 42 | short | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | R | 25.5% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 89 | normal | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | R | 19.2% | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 84 | short | full | 29.00 | 71.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 26.7% | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 87 | normal | full | 67.00 | 33.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 14.3% | 5.8 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 97 | normal | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | R | 20.0% | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 109 | deep | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | R | 26.2% | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 17.8% | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 82 | short | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 28.7% | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 76 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 24.5% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 22.2% | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 81.00 | 19.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 24.7% | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 91 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | R | 18.1% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 86 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | R | 17.1% | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | R | 20.4% | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | R | 22.7% | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 23.2% | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 76 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Hunter Dobbins | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 23.4% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 72 | short | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 25.8% | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 87 | normal | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | L | 26.4% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 17 | short | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start |
| Braydon Fisher | Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 26.8% | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 17 | short | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | R | 29.4% | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 91 | normal | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | Seth Lugo Under | San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 14.5 | -3.0 | 17.2% | A | SMALL_PLAY | research | short | 5.4 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Gerrit Cole | Gerrit Cole Under | Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | 18.5 | 16.4 | -2.1 | 11.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.10 <= 3 min |
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Over | Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | 18.5 | 20.5 | 2.0 | 10.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 109 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min |
| Merrill Kelly | Merrill Kelly Under | Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | 8.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Brady Singer | Brady Singer Under | Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.3 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Peter Lambert | Peter Lambert Under | Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 16.6 | -0.9 | 4.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Reid Detmers | Reid Detmers Over | St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Landen Roupp | Landen Roupp Under | San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.0% | B | MONITOR | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -164 | K Prop | Jake Bennett Over | ORI@SOX | 7:10 PM | 4.5 | 5.8 | -164 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -143 | best price | 28.4% | ✓✓✓✓–✓ | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: juiced K over -143, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Dean Kremer Over | ORI@SOX | 7:10 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -143 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 23.4% | ✓✓✓✓–✓ | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -159 | DK Over 4.5 -159 | exact | 27.0% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Weather: -7% run env ✓ Under | Opp lineup wRC+ 108 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pit… | K Prop | Seth Lugo Under | GIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.3 | -126 | BetRivers Under 4.5 -124 | best price | 25.8% | ✓✓!!–✓ | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Peter Lambert Under | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -156 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Hunter Dobbins Under | CAR@ANG | 4:08 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -148 | DK Under 5.5 -148 | exact | 23.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Eric Lauer Under | DOD@PHI | 6:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -153 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 23.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Merrill Kelly Over | ATH@DIA | 3:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -124 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price | 51.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Christian Scott Over | MET@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -174 | DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact | 48.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-181); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Peter Lambert Over | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -181 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price | 47.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Mitch Keller Over | PIR@YAN | 7:05 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -139 | DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact | 28.6% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Keider Montero Under | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -147 | DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact | 19.7% | ✓!!✓–✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Merrill Kelly Over | ATH@DIA | 3:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.6 | -126 | DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact | 44.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Emerson Hancock Over | RED@MAR | 3:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -140 | DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Dean Kremer Under | ORI@SOX | 7:10 PM | 3.5 | 2.4 | -151 | DK Under 3.5 -151 | exact | 31.4% | ✓✓!!–! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Christian Scott Under | MET@BRE | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -154 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over | Pitcher Earned R | Keider Montero Over | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -163 | DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!!–! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over | Pitcher Earned R | Seth Lugo Over | GIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.1 | -126 | DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!!–! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Mitch Keller Over | PIR@YAN | 7:05 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -156 | DK Over 2.5 -156 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Bennett Under | ORI@SOX | 7:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!!–! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -153 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!✓–✓ | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals | ||||||||||||
| A (Weak) | ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B | Pitcher Outs | Seth Lugo Under | GIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.5 | -104 | BetOnline Under 17.5 +100 | best price | 17.2% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Small Stake |
| A (Weak) | ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B | Pitcher Walks | Michael King Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -171 | DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact | 41.1% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Small Stake |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Reid Detmers Over | CAR@ANG | 4:08 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -139 | DK Over 5.5 -139 | exact | 18.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 42.9% (1 books) — posture note at C | Pitcher Walks | Martin Perez Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +118 | DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact | 40.9% | ✓✓✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Mitch Keller Under | PIR@YAN | 7:05 PM | 4.5 | 3.5 | -143 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -142 | best price | 21.1% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Griffin Jax Over | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -112 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -108 | best price | 16.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bailey Ober Under | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | -154 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -150 | best price | 16.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gabriel Hughes Under | NAT@ROC | 3:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | -142 | DK Under 4.5 -142 | exact | 15.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Over | NAT@ROC | 3:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | +117 | BetOnline Over 5.5 +128 | best price | 14.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael King Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -101 | BetRivers Over 4.5 +102 | best price | 12.4% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Peter Lambert Over | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | +119 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 | alt rescue | 11.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Merrill Kelly Under | ATH@DIA | 3:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -163 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Martin Perez Under | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -126 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -115 | best price | 8.5% | ✓✗!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Keider Montero Over | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -113 | BetOnline Over 3.5 -104 | best price | 8.2% | ✓✗✗!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Colin Rea Under | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -131 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -110 | best price | 8.1% | ✓✗!!–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gerrit Cole Under | PIR@YAN | 7:05 PM | 6.5 | 6.0 | -112 | Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -110 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Nola Under | DOD@PHI | 6:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -133 | DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact | 6.8% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Anthony Kay Under | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -138 | BetRivers Under 4.5 -134 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brady Singer Under | RED@MAR | 3:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -151 | DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact | 4.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eric Lauer Over | DOD@PHI | 6:40 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -119 | BetOnline Over 3.5 -106 | best price | 2.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Landen Roupp Over | GIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +116 | BetOnline Over 5.5 +130 | best price | 1.2% | ✓✗✗!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gage Jump Over | ATH@DIA | 3:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -107 | BetMGM Over 4.5 +110 | best price | 0.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Christian Scott Over | MET@BRE | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -122 | DK Over 5.5 -122 | exact | 0.1% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.10 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gerrit Cole Under | PIR@YAN | 7:05 PM | 18.5 | 16.4 | -174 | DK Under 18.5 -174 | exact | 11.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 18.5 | 20.5 | +111 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +118 | best price | 10.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Merrill Kelly Under | ATH@DIA | 3:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.0 | +109 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price | 8.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brady Singer Under | RED@MAR | 3:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | -117 | DK Under 17.5 -117 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Peter Lambert Under | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.6 | -106 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 4.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Reid Detmers Over | CAR@ANG | 4:08 PM | 17.5 | 17.7 | -112 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -112 | best price | 1.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Dean Kremer Under | ORI@SOX | 7:10 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | +118 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -150 | alt rescue | 20.0% | ✓✓✗!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brady Singer Under | RED@MAR | 3:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -122 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Gerrit Cole Under | PIR@YAN | 7:05 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -140 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -114 | DK Over 5.5 -114 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Merrill Kelly Under | ATH@DIA | 3:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.1 | -157 | DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact | 6.2% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Gage Jump Over | ATH@DIA | 3:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -103 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Nola Over | DOD@PHI | 6:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +115 | DK Over 5.5 +115 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Mitch Keller Under | PIR@YAN | 7:05 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -157 | DK Under 5.5 -157 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over | Pitcher Walks | Colin Rea Over | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -152 | DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact | 23.6% | ✓!!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Anthony Kay Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -148 | DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact | 19.5% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Reid Detmers Over | CAR@ANG | 4:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -113 | DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact | 18.9% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -119 | DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact | 17.8% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Eric Lauer Over | DOD@PHI | 6:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +137 | DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact | 16.4% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Hunter Dobbins Over | CAR@ANG | 4:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -123 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price | 16.1% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Aaron Nola Over | DOD@PHI | 6:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -179 | DK Over 1.5 -179 | exact | 15.4% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Gage Jump Over | ATH@DIA | 3:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -119 | DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact | 11.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Emerson Hancock Under | RED@MAR | 3:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -145 | DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact | 10.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Slade Cecconi Under | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -163 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price | 9.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Bailey Ober Under | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -110 | DK Under 1.5 -110 | exact | 9.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Brady Singer Over | RED@MAR | 3:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -155 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price | 8.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Logan Henderson Over | MET@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +153 | DK Over 1.5 +153 | exact | 7.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jake Bennett Over | ORI@SOX | 7:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +115 | DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact | 5.7% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Griffin Jax Over | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +136 | DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact | 2.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Gerrit Cole Under | PIR@YAN | 7:05 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -153 | DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact | 2.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Dean Kremer Under | ORI@SOX | 7:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +101 | DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Seth Lugo Over | GIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +105 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 +105 | best price | 0.3% | ✓✗✗!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Hunter Dobbins Under | CAR@ANG | 4:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -115 | DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Eric Lauer Over | DOD@PHI | 6:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -124 | DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Jax Under | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -173 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Henderson Over | MET@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -129 | DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Gage Jump Under | ATH@DIA | 3:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -135 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Bailey Ober Over | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +103 | DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Peter Lambert Under | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -125 | DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brady Singer Over | RED@MAR | 3:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -129 | DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Reid Detmers Under | CAR@ANG | 4:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -148 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Gerrit Cole Under | PIR@YAN | 7:05 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -129 | DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Nola Over | DOD@PHI | 6:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -139 | DK Over 2.5 -139 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Slade Cecconi Under | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -156 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Colin Rea Over | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +123 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +125 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -108 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Anthony Kay Under | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -122 | DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Emerson Hancock Under | RED@MAR | 3:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -115 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -106 | best price | 12.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Slade Cecconi Over | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -151 | DK Over 3.5 -151 | exact | 8.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Henderson Under | MET@BRE | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | +100 | DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact | 8.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Hunter Dobbins Over | CAR@ANG | 4:08 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | +110 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -180 | alt rescue | 5.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | +111 | DK Under 17.5 +111 | exact | 1.0% | ✓✗!✓–✓ | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Seth Lugo Under | GIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | -161 | DK Under 6.5 -161 | exact | - | ✓✗!✓–✓ | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -177 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -175 | best price | 4.2% | ✓✗!✓–✓ | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context