MLB Bets 2026-07-21

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	179W–139L–0P	56%	-14.22 u	Last 14 days • 318 settled
Grade A	18W–14L–0P	56%	+0.30 u
Grade B	161W–125L–0P	56%	-14.52 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2129W–1523L–8P	58%	-141.64 u	All-time • 3660 settled
Grade A	218W–158L–0P	58%	+5.19 u
Grade B	1911W–1365L–8P	58%	-146.83 u

28 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	K Prop	Framber Valdez	4.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	K Prop	Kumar Rocker	4.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	K Prop	Luis Castillo	6.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	6.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Drew Rasmussen	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Kumar Rocker	1.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Reynaldo Lopez	2.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Hits Allow	Luinder Avila	5.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Schultz	5.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-21	Pitcher Hits Allow	Zach Thornton	5.5	-151	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-20	K Prop	Ronel Blanco	3.5	-134	-	WIN	+0.746	Ronel Blanco: 8.0 (line 3.5)
2026-07-20	K Prop	Jacob deGrom	6.5	-127	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jacob deGrom: 6.0 (line 6.5)
2026-07-20	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan	5.5	-123	-	WIN	+0.813	Emmet Sheehan: 6.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	436	57%	-1.87u	62	50%	-7.53u	201	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	385	59%	+16.78u	53	57%	-0.33u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	382	58%	-3.46u	96	56%	-5.20u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	272	60%	-11.07u	66	62%	+0.49u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	108	45%	-15.11u	10	40%	-3.09u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 436, 14d N 62	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 385, 14d N 53	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 108, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 750 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 316 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 729 pitcher(s), 3205 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 557 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 391 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1133 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 391 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, Athletics, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 246 market side(s) checked \| 246 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 604 \| batter bats 396 \| batter hand splits 148 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 557 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-164)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	-115	-105	-1.5 (+149)	+1.5 (-181)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-167)	-1.5 (+138)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-111	-109	-1.5 (+147)	+1.5 (-179)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-164)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-101	-120	-1.5 (+165)	+1.5 (-202)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+105	-126	+1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-112	-107	-1.5 (+128)	+1.5 (-155)	O/U 13.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-112	-108	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+114	-137	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 10.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	-106	-114	-1.5 (+160)	+1.5 (-195)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 7 Grade B | 47 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal	K Prop	Luis Castillo Under	RED@MAR	9:41 PM	6.5	4.4	-157	DK Under 6.5 -157 \| exact	32.6%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Framber Valdez Over	TIG@CUB	8:06 PM	4.5	5.8	-126	BetOnline Over 4.5 -110 \| best price	28.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -146, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Kumar Rocker Over	SOX@RAN	8:06 PM	4.5	5.6	-146	DK Over 4.5 -146 \| exact	25.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - David Peterson Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 4

Pitcher Outs - Drew Rasmussen Under

Selected line 17.5 is split from majority 16.5 / avg 17

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Luis Castillo Under 6.5 (-157) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 6.1 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-167	+128	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	-160	+115	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+125	-165	-
DK	6.5	+123	-157	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+128	-164	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 32.6% vs 17% min; cushion -2.12K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Luis Castillo: K/9 7.8, proj 4.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 23.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 67 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .254 | OPS .786
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 25.2%, L7 19.9%, season 24.8%, BVP 20.9%/67 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/18 (94%) | Season 17/18 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 10/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: 50% consensus, but diff_pct 32.6% >= 21.3% and raw gap 2.12 >= 1.00

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Framber Valdez Over 4.5 (-126) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 28.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.29K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Framber Valdez: K/9 7.5, proj 5.8K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Curveball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .132 | OPS .353
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.1%, L7 25.4%, season 21.5%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.58
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 (-146) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-149	+115	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-146	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 25.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.12K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kumar Rocker: K/9 9.0, proj 5.6K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .222
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.4%, L7 25.3%, season 23.8%, active roster 23.5%/6 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 25.9% vs season 20.5%, proj adj +2.7%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -146, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (7 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 (-150) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-139	+107	-
BetRivers	6.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-125	-105	Raw BestVerify
DK	6.5	-150	+118	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-125	-102	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 23.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.50K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zack Wheeler: K/9 11.7, proj 8.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 23.0% | xwOBA 0.254 | top pitch: Split-Finger (44% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 174 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .252 | OPS .804
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 174 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.0%, L7 24.1%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.6%/174 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.80 | Season Avg 7.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
K% trend: support +8.3 ppts (recent 38.7% vs season 30.4%, proj adj +4.1%)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150 -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.50K, diff 23.1%, books 100%)

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Schultz Under 5.5 (-158) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+118	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.87 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.35, BB% 11.2%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 24.2%, season 22.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-158) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Luinder Avila Under 5.5 (-147) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 12.2%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Luinder Avila: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.5%, L7 23.2%, season 21.0% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zach Thornton Under 5.5 (-151) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Over 1.5 (-160) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.6% / Under 42.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.77 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 5.28)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.6% / under 42.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .222
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.4%, L7 25.3%, season 23.8% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-174) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.22 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.25, ERA 3.81)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 116 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .682
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.9%, L7 16.5%, season 19.5%, BVP 17.2%/116 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 (-156) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 3.45)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Reynaldo López: 89 PA | K% 16.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .286 | OPS .719
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 21.6%, L7 15.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 16.9%/89 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/22 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (47 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 23 play(s) (B 7 | C 16)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Bradish Over 5.5 (+112) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+112	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 26.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Bradish: K/9 9.0, proj 6.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.3% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 45 PA | K% 28.9% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .256 | OPS .956
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.5%, L7 20.0%, season 21.9%, BVP 28.9%/45 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.58
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Parker Messick Over 5.5 (+126) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	-
BetRivers	5.5	+117	-157	-
DK	5.5	+126	-161	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+142	-184	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 18.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.04K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Parker Messick: K/9 8.6, proj 6.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 38 PA | K% 28.9% | BB% 2.6% | AVG .297 | OPS .694
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.3%, L7 17.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 28.9%/38 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.79
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 (-129) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.81K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ranger Suarez: K/9 10.4, proj 6.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Curveball (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 36.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 71 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 16.9% | AVG .241 | OPS .746
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 71 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 22.1%, L7 29.7%, season 24.4%, BVP 22.5%/71 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 30.1% vs season 25.8%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Brandon Sproat Over 4.5 (-137) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-137	+106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-137	+108	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-135	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.6% / under 45.4%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Sproat: K/9 10.6, proj 4.9K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 19.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1%, active roster 19.3%/7 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
K% trend: support +8.3 ppts (recent 33.0% vs season 24.7%, proj adj +4.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Chase Burns Over 6.5 (-143) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-152	+116	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
DK	6.5	-143	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-156	+122	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.49K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Chase Burns: K/9 10.2, proj 7.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.1% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.277 | top pitch: Slider (51% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.2%, L7 19.5%, season 23.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.56
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Walker Buehler Over 3.5 (-140) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-145	+112	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Walker Buehler: K/9 8.7, proj 3.7K over 4.5 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 98 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .775
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 98 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.5%, L7 20.4%, season 21.2%, active roster 20.9%/7 hitters, BVP 21.4%/98 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.26
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 4.5 (-126) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jack Perkins: K/9 11.1, proj 4.8K over 4.4 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 24.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .600 | OPS 1.467
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.6%, L7 21.9%, season 19.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/24 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walbert Urena Over 4.5 (+127) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+127	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 20.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.94K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.6% / under 58.4%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Walbert Urena: K/9 8.5, proj 5.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 19.2%, L7 22.0%, season 20.4%, active roster 18.5%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.59
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 (-161) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -161

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
DK	4.5	+126	-161	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 20.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.91K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reynaldo Lopez: K/9 7.9, proj 3.6K over 4.3 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reynaldo López: 89 PA | K% 16.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .286 | OPS .719
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 89 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 21.6%, L7 15.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 16.9%/89 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/22 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 4.5 (+110) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+110	-141	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.62K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1%, active roster 19.3%/7 hitters (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (7 hitters)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Peterson Under 4.5 (-150) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 4 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 3.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
DK	4.5	+117	-150	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.61K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.67
David Peterson: K/9 7.0, proj 3.9K over 4.5 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 21.3% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Curveball: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.194
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.2%, L7 25.7%, season 23.2% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.68
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Liberatore Under 5.5 (-151) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	-
DK	5.5	+118	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+132	-170	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.63K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Matthew Liberatore: K/9 8.7, proj 4.9K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 15.6% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 38.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .240 | OPS .589
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.3%, L7 25.1%, season 25.1%, active roster 25.6%/6 hitters, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.63
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Noah Schultz Under 4.5 (-153) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -153

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+120	-153	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.46K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Noah Schultz: K/9 8.2, proj 4.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 15.9% | xwOBA 0.371 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Sweeper: 26.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.0%, L7 24.2%, season 22.4%, active roster 19.4%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.27
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-113) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-106	-122	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+100	-130	-
DK	3.5	-113	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 9.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.32K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 6.0, proj 3.2K over 4.9 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.5% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.359 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 21 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .111 | OPS .516
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.1%, L7 22.4%, season 21.5%, active roster 20.8%/8 hitters, BVP 19.1%/21 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.48
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5
K% trend: headwind -5.1 ppts (recent 10.7% vs season 15.8%, proj adj -2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Luinder Avila Over 3.5 (-115) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-114	-114	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
DK	3.5	-115	-111	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-104	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.30K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Luinder Avila: K/9 8.1, proj 3.8K over 4.6 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 19.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Luinder Avila: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.5%, L7 23.2%, season 21.0%, active roster 18.5%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (+100) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+100	-128	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+104	-132	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.29K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Phillips: K/9 6.0, proj 3.8K over 4.5 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 5/25 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.8 ppts (recent 11.5% vs season 17.3%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Will Warren Under 5.5 (-109) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-115	-112	-
BetRivers	5.5	-121	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-117	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.42K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Will Warren: K/9 8.3, proj 5.1K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 25 PA | K% 32.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .480 | OPS 1.280
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 21.9%, L7 27.8%, season 24.1%, BVP 32.0%/25 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.35 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.3 ppts (recent 17.1% vs season 22.4%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 (-133) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+104	-135	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+104	-133	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.22K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 8.3, proj 4.3K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 116 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .682
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 116 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.9%, L7 16.5%, season 19.5%, BVP 17.2%/116 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5
K% trend: headwind -5.9 ppts (recent 19.1% vs season 25.0%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bubba Chandler Under 4.5 (+118) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +118

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-147	+113	-
BetRivers	4.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-150	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-140	+110	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.20K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bubba Chandler: K/9 7.4, proj 4.3K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 15.9% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 33.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 19.9%, L7 22.7%, season 24.0% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.0 ppts (recent 14.2% vs season 20.2%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (-134) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+109	-141	-
BetRivers	5.5	+104	-139	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+105	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.25K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 7.2, proj 5.3K over 6.2 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.3% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 25 PA | K% 32.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .240 | OPS .840
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.0%, L7 27.3%, season 23.7%, active roster 22.7%/7 hitters, BVP 32.0%/25 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 4.56
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.24 vs season
K% trend: support +4.9 ppts (recent 23.2% vs season 18.3%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 (-135) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+104	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kevin Gausman: K/9 9.8, proj 5.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 117 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .364 | OPS .852
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 117 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 19.1%, season 18.9%, BVP 19.7%/117 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Mahle Under 4.5 (-168) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -166 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -168

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -166 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+131	-168	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+130	-166	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.08K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.8% / under 59.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Mahle: K/9 7.8, proj 4.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Split-Finger (27% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .634
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 24.6%, L7 22.0%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.9%/6 hitters, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.87
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tatsuya Imai Under 5.5 (-161) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -161

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
DK	5.5	+126	-161	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.02K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Tatsuya Imai: K/9 11.6, proj 5.5K over 4.1 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Tatsuya Imai: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 16.8%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +7.0 ppts (recent 34.0% vs season 27.0%, proj adj +3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Luis Castillo Under 17.5 (+103) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +103

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
DK	17.5	-137	+103	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-146	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 14.845 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 15.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 67 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .254 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 25.2%, L7 19.9%, season 24.8%, BVP 20.9%/67 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.2%, L7 6.1%, season 9.6%, BVP 10.4%/67 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.80 | Season Avg 14.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.65 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.65 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 (-182) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
DK	17.5	-182	+137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-192	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.078 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.83 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 174 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .252 | OPS .804
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.0%, L7 24.1%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.6%/174 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 12.4%, L7 8.2%, season 10.4%, BVP 10.9%/174 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/15 (80%) | Season 12/15 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 18.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Justin Wrobleski Over 17.5 (-141) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.054 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.4 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.4 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 25 PA | K% 32.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .240 | OPS .840
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.0%, L7 27.3%, season 23.7%, BVP 32.0%/25 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 9.8%, L7 7.4%, season 7.9%, BVP 0.0%/25 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.4 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.30 | Season Avg 18.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (+103) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +103

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
DK	17.5	-137	+103	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+112	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 15.543000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.78 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 117 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .364 | OPS .852
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 19.1%, season 18.9%, BVP 19.7%/117 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 9.4%, L7 7.4%, season 9.2%, BVP 4.3%/117 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.3%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Chase Burns Over 17.5 (+101) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
DK	17.5	+101	-134	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	+104	-138	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.632 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.59 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.2%, L7 19.5%, season 23.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.0%, L7 8.6%, season 8.9% (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 17.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 17.5 (-134) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
DK	17.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	+118	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.374 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .132 | OPS .353
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.1%, L7 25.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.8%, L7 11.0%, season 11.1%, BVP 7.3%/41 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 (-137) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 16.5 at 1 book | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 16.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	16.5	-154	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.45 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.25 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 116 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .682
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.9%, L7 16.5%, season 19.5%, BVP 17.2%/116 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.9%, L7 8.2%, season 7.4%, BVP 7.8%/116 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.3%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 16.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (+125) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 6.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.15 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.45, BB% 6.8%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 117 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .364 | OPS .852
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 19.1%, season 18.9%, BVP 19.7%/117 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tyler Mahle Under 5.5 (-124) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.40, BB% 9.5%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .634
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 24.6%, L7 22.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Walker Buehler Under 5.5 (-150) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.56, BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 98 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .775
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.5%, L7 20.4%, season 21.2%, BVP 21.4%/98 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Under 5.5 (-101) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .132 | OPS .353
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.1%, L7 25.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Schultz Over 2.5 (-106) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.76 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.92, ERA 5.66)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 24.2%, season 22.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tatsuya Imai Under 2.5 (-140) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.88 over 3.9 IP (xFIP 4.22, ERA 5.31)
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Tatsuya Imai: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 16.8%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walbert Urena Under 2.5 (-146) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.76 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 3.24)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.2%, L7 22.0%, season 20.4% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Sproat Under 2.5 (-175) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.59 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 4.68)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-121) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, L7 25.4%, season 22.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Under 2.5 (-127) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.55 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.62, ERA 3.86)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/25 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.34 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Luinder Avila Under 2.5 (-120) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.63, ERA 4.45)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Luinder Avila: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.5%, L7 23.2%, season 21.0% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Over 2.5 (+105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 5.45)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 117 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .364 | OPS .852
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 19.1%, season 18.9%, BVP 19.7%/117 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Under 2.5 (+100) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.16 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.12, ERA 6.75)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 98 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .775
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.5%, L7 20.4%, season 21.2%, BVP 21.4%/98 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 (-112) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.42 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.19, ERA 4.80)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .634
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 24.6%, L7 22.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Perkins Under 2.5 (-155) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.10 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 6.81)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .600 | OPS 1.467
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.6%, L7 21.9%, season 19.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Under 2.5 (-117) Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 3.82)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .132 | OPS .353
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.1%, L7 25.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Liberatore Under 2.5 (-128) Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.06 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 5.37)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .240 | OPS .589
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.3%, L7 25.1%, season 25.1%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	71.4	68.2	80.5	6	Split-Finger (44% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	65.7	66.9	69.0	3	Slider (51% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals	61.9	59.9	66.0	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kendry Rojas	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	60.3	65.1	56.5	4	Slider (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	58.5	54.8	66.0	6	Curveball (45% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	58.3	53.9	67.0	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	57.5	51.5	66.5	6	Changeup (39% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	56.2	59.6	55.0	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	54.0	58.6	48.5	6	Changeup (47% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	53.7	53.1	56.0	4	Curveball (42% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	49.1	50.8	53.5	5	Sweeper (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	48.4	45.5	50.5	6	Slider (31% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	48.4	47.4	49.0	5	Split-Finger (27% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tatsuya Imai	Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	47.7	63.4	35.0	6	Slider (40% whiff, 45% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	46.4	47.1	45.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	46.0	43.3	49.0	5	Curveball (31% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	46.0	52.7	38.5	6	Curveball (46% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	45.9	51.3	40.5	5	Slider (40% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	45.8	51.6	39.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds	45.4	44.8	43.5	4	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	44.3	46.1	44.0	4	Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants	44.0	48.0	38.5	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	43.9	39.4	50.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 50% usage)	Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	42.8	41.9	44.0	7	Curveball (29% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	41.0	46.0	32.5	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers	40.4	46.1	31.5	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	35.6	38.3	28.0	7	Changeup (31% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	33.1	25.6	36.5	6	Curveball (20% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 14.9%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	32.9	41.4	22.0	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.371, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics	L	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	27.0%	4.2	4.4	4.8	70	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	R	21.5%	4.2	4.4	4.5	70	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	R	24.0%	6.5	5.7	6.0	109	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	L	27.3%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers	L	16.6%	4.1	4.7	4.6	69	short	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	L	20.6%	4.6	4.8	4.8	77	short	full	22.00	78.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	R	27.6%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	L	23.9%	6.1	5.9	6.0	102	deep	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	R	14.0%	5.1	4.8	4.9	86	short	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	L	19.1%	6.0	5.7	5.7	101	deep	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Tatsuya Imai	Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	R	28.4%	4.3	4.0	4.1	72	short	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants	R	21.0%	4.8	4.3	4.5	80	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	21.5%	5.1	5.3	5.3	86	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	20.0%	6.2	6.4	6.4	104	deep	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	R	15.5%	4.4	4.5	4.6	74	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	R	27.6%	4.3	4.7	4.6	72	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Kendry Rojas	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	L	24.5%	2.4	3.0	4.6	40	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	22.4%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	20.5%	4.9	5.2	5.1	82	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	33.3%	5.9	6.2	6.1	99	normal	full	80.50	19.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	R	18.1%	5.1	4.9	5.0	86	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.6%	4.2	4.7	4.6	70	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	R	20.2%	5.1	5.2	5.2	86	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds	R	19.4%	5.2	5.1	5.1	87	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	L	21.6%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	22.9%	5.2	5.5	5.5	87	normal	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	R	22.4%	4.7	4.8	4.8	79	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	24.7%	5.0	5.6	5.5	84	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	R	10.9%	5.2	4.8	5.0	87	normal	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Luis Castillo	Luis Castillo Under	Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	14.8	-2.6	15.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.1	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.65 <= 3 min
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	20.1	2.6	14.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.1	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min
Justin Wrobleski	Justin Wrobleski Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	20.1	2.5	14.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.4	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min
Chase Burns	Chase Burns Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes