| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 436 | 57% | -1.87u | 62 | 50% | -7.53u | 201 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 385 | 59% | +16.78u | 53 | 57% | -0.33u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 382 | 58% | -3.46u | 96 | 56% | -5.20u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 272 | 60% | -11.07u | 66 | 62% | +0.49u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 108 | 45% | -15.11u | 10 | 40% | -3.09u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 71.4 | 68.2 | 80.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (44% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | 65.7 | 66.9 | 69.0 | 3 | Slider (51% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | 61.9 | 59.9 | 66.0 | 4 | Changeup (37% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kendry Rojas | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | 60.3 | 65.1 | 56.5 | 4 | Slider (39% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 58.5 | 54.8 | 66.0 | 6 | Curveball (45% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 58.3 | 53.9 | 67.0 | 6 | Changeup (37% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | 57.5 | 51.5 | 66.5 | 6 | Changeup (39% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 56.2 | 59.6 | 55.0 | 3 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.0 | 58.6 | 48.5 | 6 | Changeup (47% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 53.7 | 53.1 | 56.0 | 4 | Curveball (42% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | 49.1 | 50.8 | 53.5 | 5 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | 48.4 | 45.5 | 50.5 | 6 | Slider (31% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | 48.4 | 47.4 | 49.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (27% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | 47.7 | 63.4 | 35.0 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 45% usage) | Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 46.4 | 47.1 | 45.0 | 5 | Changeup (26% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | 46.0 | 43.3 | 49.0 | 5 | Curveball (31% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | 46.0 | 52.7 | 38.5 | 6 | Curveball (46% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 45.9 | 51.3 | 40.5 | 5 | Slider (40% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | 45.8 | 51.6 | 39.5 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Luis Castillo | Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | 45.4 | 44.8 | 43.5 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Reynaldo López | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 44.3 | 46.1 | 44.0 | 4 | Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | 44.0 | 48.0 | 38.5 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | 43.9 | 39.4 | 50.5 | 7 | 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 50% usage) | Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | 42.8 | 41.9 | 44.0 | 7 | Curveball (29% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | 41.0 | 46.0 | 32.5 | 7 | Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | 40.4 | 46.1 | 31.5 | 5 | Curveball (35% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | 35.6 | 38.3 | 28.0 | 7 | Changeup (31% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | 33.1 | 25.6 | 36.5 | 6 | Curveball (20% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 14.9%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Schultz | Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | 32.9 | 41.4 | 22.0 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.371, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kohl Drake | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kohl Drake | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 27.0% | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 70 | short | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Reynaldo López | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | R | 21.5% | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 70 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | R | 24.0% | 6.5 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 109 | deep | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 27.3% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 86 | short | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | L | 16.6% | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 69 | short | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Noah Schultz | Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | L | 20.6% | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 77 | short | full | 22.00 | 78.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | R | 27.6% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 69.00 | 31.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | L | 23.9% | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 67.00 | 33.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | R | 14.0% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 86 | short | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | L | 19.1% | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 101 | deep | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | R | 28.4% | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 72 | short | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | R | 21.0% | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 80 | short | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 21.5% | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 86 | short | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 20.0% | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 104 | deep | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | R | 15.5% | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 74 | short | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | R | 27.6% | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 72 | short | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Kendry Rojas | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 24.5% | 2.4 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 40 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 22.4% | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 96 | normal | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 20.5% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 82 | short | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 33.3% | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 99 | normal | full | 80.50 | 19.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | R | 18.1% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 86 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | R | 21.6% | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 70 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | R | 20.2% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Luis Castillo | Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 19.4% | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 87 | normal | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 21.6% | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 32.50 | 67.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 22.9% | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | R | 22.4% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 79 | short | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 24.7% | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | R | 10.9% | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 87 | normal | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | Luis Castillo Under | Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 14.8 | -2.6 | 15.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.1 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.65 <= 3 min |
| Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 20.1 | 2.6 | 14.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.1 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min |
| Justin Wrobleski | Justin Wrobleski Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 20.1 | 2.5 | 14.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.4 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min |
| Kevin Gausman | Kevin Gausman Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 15.5 | -2.0 | 11.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.5 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min |
| Chase Burns | Chase Burns Over | Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 0.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Framber Valdez | Framber Valdez Under | Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | 0.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.7 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Drew Rasmussen | Drew Rasmussen Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | 0.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal | K Prop | Luis Castillo Under | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 6.5 | 4.4 | -157 | DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact | 32.6% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Framber Valdez Over | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.8 | -126 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 28.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -146, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Kumar Rocker Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.6 | -146 | DK Over 4.5 -146 | exact | 25.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Zack Wheeler Over | DOD@PHI | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 8.0 | -150 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -125 | best price | 23.1% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Schultz Under | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -158 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Luinder Avila Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -147 | DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact | 23.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Zach Thornton Under | MET@BRE | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -151 | DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Kumar Rocker Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -160 | DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Drew Rasmussen Over | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -174 | DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Reynaldo Lopez Under | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -156 | DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Kyle Bradish Over | ORI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.9 | +112 | DK Over 5.5 +112 | exact | 26.0% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 41.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Parker Messick Over | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | +126 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +142 | best price | 18.8% | ✓✓✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Walbert Urena Over | CAR@ANG | 9:39 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | +127 | DK Over 4.5 +127 | exact | 20.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Reynaldo Lopez Under | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 3.6 | -161 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -150 | best price | 20.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zach Thornton Over | MET@BRE | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | +110 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price | 13.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | David Peterson Under | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | -150 | DK Under 4.5 -150 | exact | 13.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Liberatore Under | CAR@ANG | 9:39 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -151 | DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact | 11.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Schultz Under | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -153 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 10.3% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Lorenzen Under | NAT@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -113 | DK Under 3.5 -113 | exact | 9.0% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Luinder Avila Over | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -115 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -104 | best price | 8.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | +100 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | best price | 8.3% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Will Warren Under | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -109 | DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact | 7.6% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Drew Rasmussen Under | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -133 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price | 4.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bubba Chandler Under | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | +118 | DK Under 4.5 +118 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Justin Wrobleski Under | DOD@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -134 | DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Under | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -135 | BetOnline Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 4.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Mahle Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -168 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -166 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tatsuya Imai Under | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -161 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -156 | best price | 0.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.65 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Luis Castillo Under | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 14.8 | +103 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 15.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zack Wheeler Over | DOD@PHI | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 20.1 | -182 | DK Over 17.5 -182 | exact | 14.7% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.55 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Justin Wrobleski Over | DOD@PHI | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 20.1 | -141 | DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact | 14.6% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kevin Gausman Under | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 15.5 | +103 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +112 | best price | 11.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Chase Burns Over | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.6 | +101 | FanDuel Over 17.5 +104 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.4 | -134 | DK Under 17.5 -134 | exact | 0.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Drew Rasmussen Under | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 17.4 | -137 | DK Under 17.5 -137 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Hits All | Kevin Gausman Over | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | +125 | DK Over 5.5 +125 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Tyler Mahle Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -124 | DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -150 | DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -101 | DK Under 5.5 -101 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Schultz Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -106 | DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Tatsuya Imai Under | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -140 | DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Walbert Urena Under | CAR@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -146 | DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Sproat Under | MET@BRE | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -175 | DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Zach Thornton Under | MET@BRE | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -121 | DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Phillips Under | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -127 | DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Luinder Avila Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -120 | DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kevin Gausman Over | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +105 | DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +100 | DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Mahle Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -112 | DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jack Perkins Under | ATH@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -155 | DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -117 | DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Liberatore Under | CAR@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -128 | DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ranger Suarez Over | ORI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | -129 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price | 14.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Sproat Over | MET@BRE | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -137 | theScore Bet Over 4.5 -135 | best price | 9.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.0 | -143 | DK Over 6.5 -143 | exact | 7.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | -140 | DK Over 3.5 -140 | exact | 6.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Perkins Over | ATH@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -126 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price | 6.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context