MLB Bets 2026-07-20

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	176W–124L–0P	59%	-1.66 u	Last 14 days • 300 settled
Grade A	16W–14L–0P	53%	-1.26 u
Grade B	160W–110L–0P	59%	-0.40 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2115W–1504L–8P	58%	-132.11 u	All-time • 3627 settled
Grade A	216W–157L–0P	58%	+4.63 u
Grade B	1899W–1347L–8P	59%	-136.74 u

51 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft	6.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan	5.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Jacob deGrom	6.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Mitch Bratt	3.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Payton Tolle	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	K Prop	Ronel Blanco	3.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Andrew Alvarez	2.5	108	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Braxton Ashcraft	2.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Cristopher Sanchez	2.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Emmet Sheehan	2.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	George Kirby	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob deGrom	1.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Jameson Taillon	2.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Jeffrey Springs	2.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Joe Ryan	2.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Kyle Leahy	2.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael Wacha	3.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Payton Tolle	2.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Ronel Blanco	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Weathers	2.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Baz	3.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Hits Allow	Andrew Alvarez	5.5	100	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Hits Allow	Cristopher Sanchez	5.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Hits Allow	Tanner Bibee	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Hits Allow	Trevor McDonald	6.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Hits Allow	Trevor McDonald	5.5	108	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Outs	Jacob Misiorowski	17.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Abbott	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Walks	Dylan Cease	1.5	-192	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Walks	George Kirby	0.5	-231	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Walks	Jose Soriano	1.5	-192	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Walks	Nick Martinez	0.5	-209	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-20	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-19	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	5.5	-149	-	WIN	+0.671	Joey Cantillo: 7.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-19	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-157	-	LOSS	-1.000	Nathan Eovaldi: 2.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-19	K Prop	Casey Mize	5.5	-149	-	LOSS	-1.000	Casey Mize: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-19	K Prop	Hunter Greene	7.5	118	-	LOSS	-1.000	Hunter Greene: 7.0 (line 7.5)
2026-07-19	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	6.5	111	-	WIN	+1.110	Joey Cantillo: 7.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	430	57%	+0.57u	63	51%	-5.98u	198	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	380	59%	+16.40u	52	58%	+0.40u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	367	59%	+1.66u	90	61%	+2.87u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	266	60%	-9.72u	71	62%	+0.12u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	107	46%	-14.11u	9	44%	-2.09u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 430, 14d N 63	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 13 total candidate(s); season N 380, 14d N 52	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 107, 14d N 9	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 750 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 316 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 216 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 729 pitcher(s), 3205 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 557 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 26 team(s), 234 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 392 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1070 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 234 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 13 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Tampa Bay Rays, Athletics, Chicago White Sox, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 368 market side(s) checked \| 368 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 604 \| batter bats 400 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 557 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	-132	+110	-1.5 (+130)	+1.5 (-157)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+159)	+1.5 (-194)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+133	-162	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+134	-162	+1.5 (-158)	-1.5 (+131)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies	7:11 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+114	-138	+1.5 (-169)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+104	-126	+1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 10.5	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+178	-219	+1.5 (-107)	-1.5 (-112)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+141)	+1.5 (-171)	O/U 11.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+141	-171	+1.5 (-156)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+102	-123	+1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 12.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-170)	-1.5 (+140)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+125	-151	+1.5 (-174)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels	10:11 PM	-108	-112	-1.5 (+149)	+1.5 (-181)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 25 Grade B | 79 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	🔬 Research Only K final QC: top-six opp K% 19.0%, 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -153, lineup BVP damage OPS 0.944/AVG 0.375 over 9 PA	K Prop	Ronel Blanco Over	MAR@AST	8:11 PM	3.5	4.8	-153	DK Over 3.5 -153 \| exact	37.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (8 play(s))

Pitcher Walks - Jack Flaherty Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

K Prop - Jacob deGrom Over

Projection: 8.5Displayed: Over 7.5 +120Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 6.5Recommended: FanDuel Over 6.5 -146 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.5

Pitcher Walks - George Kirby Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Pitcher Earned Runs - Shane Baz Under

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Kyle Freeland Under

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.75

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Ryan Weathers Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Pitcher Earned Runs - Jack Flaherty Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

Pitcher Earned Runs - Ronel Blanco Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Ronel Blanco Over 3.5 (-153) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.67 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 4.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-159	+122	-
BetRivers	3.5	-165	+123	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-153	+120	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	-
BetMGM	4.5	+140	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 37.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.32K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.1% / under 42.9%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ronel Blanco: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS .944
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 16.5%, L7 22.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 19.0%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.0% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: K: no recent game-log sample
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: top-six opp K% 19.0%, 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -153, lineup BVP damage OPS 0.944/AVG 0.375 over 9 PA -- A risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (25 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 (-122) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-123	-104	-
BetRivers	5.5	-124	-107	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-122	-104	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 34.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.90K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.9% / under 48.1%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 10.7, proj 7.4K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.0% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Laz Diaz — 9.5 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.06x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 34.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emmet Sheehan: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .105 | OPS .296
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.6%, L7 26.9%, season 23.7%, top-6 23.0%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.0% (6/6); lineup K% 22.6% (7/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.47
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge -- B risk note

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.90K, diff 34.6%, books 83%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 (-131) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 6.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-130	+100	-
BetRivers	6.5	-114	-117	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
DK	6.5	-131	+103	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 17.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.16K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 10.9, proj 7.7K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 24.5% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Paul Clemons — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 41.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 24.1%, top-6 21.1% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.20 | Season Avg 6.74
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 32.5% vs season 27.8%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -131 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Alvarez Under 5.5 (+105) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-118	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 4.1 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 9.6%)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 24.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.8%, top-6 22.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (5/6); lineup K% 22.2% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/13 (92%) | Season 12/13 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (-142) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 6.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.10 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 4.8%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 123 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .681
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.3%, L7 24.7%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.6%/123 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-136) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 77 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .183 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 24.7%/77 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor McDonald Under 5.5 (+108) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	-
DK	5.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 24.6%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 23.6% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — George Kirby Over 0.5 (-231) diff 149.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -231 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -231

Selected market: Over 65.4% / Under 34.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -231 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-231	+171	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2477806801321147 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 149.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 6.0 IP (BB% 5.3%)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 65.4% / under 34.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs George Kirby: 40 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .289 | OPS .878
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 25.0%, L7 21.6%, season 24.8%, BVP 25.0%/40 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.2%, L7 6.1%, season 9.6%, BVP 5.0%/40 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-231); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Dylan Cease Over 1.5 (-192) diff 97.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 61.5% / Under 38.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-192	+143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.96427384014658 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 97.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.47 over 5.6 IP (BB% 11.0%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 61.5% / under 38.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dylan Cease: 83 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 18.1% | AVG .277 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 17.2%, L7 18.0%, season 18.9%, top-6 17.0%, BVP 12.0%/83 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 9.4%, L7 7.0%, season 9.2%, BVP 18.1%/83 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-192); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Nick Martinez Over 0.5 (-209) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-209	+156	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.959302584215727 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.19 over 5.4 IP (BB% 4.4%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 63.4% / under 36.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 74 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.034
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 19.1%, L7 16.3%, season 19.7%, top-6 18.2%, BVP 9.5%/74 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 6.9%, L7 8.7%, season 7.4%, BVP 9.5%/74 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-209); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jose Soriano Over 1.5 (-192) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 61.6% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-192	+144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5898692128972414 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.49 over 5.1 IP (BB% 11.4%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 61.6% / under 38.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 7 PA | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | AVG .200 | OPS .829
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.9%, L7 20.1%, season 20.3% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 8.4%, L7 10.4%, season 8.6% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-192); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Andrew Abbott Over 1.5 (-136) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3396405654924775 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.0 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.319
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.3%, L7 20.4%, season 23.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.0%, L7 9.8%, season 8.9%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Baz Over 1.5 (-170) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-170	+128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-175	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9763000006335742 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.6 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 63 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .161 | OPS .470
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.8%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 25.4%/63 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.9%, L7 9.8%, season 8.1%, BVP 4.8%/63 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 13 play(s) (B 13)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — George Kirby Over 1.5 (-155) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	-
DK	1.5	-155	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.51 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 3.53)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs George Kirby: 40 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .289 | OPS .878
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 25.0%, L7 21.6%, season 24.8%, BVP 25.0%/40 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 (+108) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	-
DK	2.5	-144	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.98 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 3.64, ERA 4.47)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 24.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.8%, top-6 22.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (5/6); lineup K% 22.2% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 (-144) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.13 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.07, ERA 3.74)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob deGrom: 17 PA | K% 5.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .502
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.4%, L7 26.6%, season 23.8%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Under 2.5 (-144) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-155	-
DK	2.5	+109	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.43 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.03, ERA 3.27)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .385 | OPS .928
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.6%, L7 26.5%, season 24.2%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 (-143) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
DK	2.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.74 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.61, ERA 3.60)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 123 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .681
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.3%, L7 24.7%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.6%/123 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jeffrey Springs Over 2.5 (-149) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-155	+115	-
DK	2.5	-149	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.07 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 7.91)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .377
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.2%, L7 22.9%, season 19.7%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 3.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Under 3.5 (-160) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 22.9% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.40 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.34)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 63 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .161 | OPS .470
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.8%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 25.4%/63 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Under 2.5 (-169) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+127	-169	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.17 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.21, ERA 3.72)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 24.1%, top-6 21.1% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-169) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 (-147) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+111	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.58 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.28, ERA 3.96)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 24 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .683
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.5%, L7 26.5%, season 24.0%, top-6 22.6%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Wacha Under 3.5 (-153) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.20 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.01)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Wacha: 57 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .309 | OPS .933
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.5%, L7 22.9%, season 21.0%, top-6 15.4%, BVP 17.5%/57 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Under 2.5 (-150) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
DK	2.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 2.92)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.95x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 25.7%, L7 27.4%, season 25.2% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Under 2.5 (-114) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.20 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 4.96)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emmet Sheehan: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .105 | OPS .296
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.6%, L7 26.9%, season 23.7%, top-6 23.0%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.0% (6/6); lineup K% 22.6% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 (-141) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-141	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.60 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.67, ERA 6.09)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jameson Taillon: 48 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .196 | OPS .621
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.8%, L7 26.2%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.9%/48 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (79 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 26 play(s) (A 1 | B 6 | C 19)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake K Prop — Jameson Taillon Over 3.5 (-157) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+116	-
BetRivers	3.5	-148	+110	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-160	+124	-
BetMGM	4.5	+130	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 44.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.56K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jameson Taillon: K/9 8.0, proj 5.1K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.357 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tripp Gibson — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jameson Taillon: 48 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .196 | OPS .621
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.8%, L7 26.2%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.9%/48 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.54
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Weather: +8% run env ✓ Over | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Matchup — posture note at B

⚠ K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 17% usage pitch, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Freeland Over 4.5 (+113) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
BetRivers	4.5	+125	-167	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 25.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.16K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kyle Freeland: K/9 8.5, proj 5.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.359 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Todd Tichenor — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 23 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .399
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 26.4%, L7 20.8%, season 21.5%, lineup 21.6%, BVP 30.4%/23 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; lineup K% 21.6% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 24.4% vs season 19.7%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bryce Elder Over 3.5 (-141) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -141

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-149	+115	-
BetRivers	3.5	-148	+110	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-141	+110	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-160	+124	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 23.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.83K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Bryce Elder: K/9 7.4, proj 4.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Muchlinski — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryce Elder: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .860
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 21.7%, L7 16.7%, season 22.4%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.5% (5/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.78
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 23.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 23.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (+105) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 8.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 8.36 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 6 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 8.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	8.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	8.5	-105	-123	-
BetRivers	8.5	-120	-112	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	+100	-130	-
DK	8.5	+105	-134	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	8.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.2K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 20.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.74K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 13.7, proj 10.2K over 6.3 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 37.8% | put-away% 32.5% | xwOBA 0.224 | top pitch: Curveball (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Cory Blaser — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | AVG .200 | OPS 1.300
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.5%, L7 22.3%, season 22.0%, BVP 12.5%/8 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.70 | Season Avg 9.28
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 8.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jacob deGrom Over 7.5 (+120) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -146 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -146 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	6.5	-156	+120	-
BetRivers	6.5	-152	+114	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	6.5	-146	+114	Recommended
DK	7.5	+120	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 8.5K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 13.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.00K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.8% / under 57.2%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.17
Jacob deGrom: K/9 11.1, proj 8.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 34.8% | put-away% 25.4% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Changeup (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ryan Additon — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob deGrom: 17 PA | K% 5.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .502
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.4%, L7 26.6%, season 23.8%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.78
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — JP Sears Over 3.5 (-125) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-147	+114	-
BetRivers	3.5	-152	+114	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-125	-102	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 11.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.40K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
JP Sears: K/9 8.3, proj 3.9K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Muchlinski — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs JP Sears: 72 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .235 | OPS .646
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 72 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 21.2%, top-6 20.4%, BVP 13.9%/72 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.4% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.25 | Season Avg 4.25
Prop trend: K L10: 3/4 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 4.5 (-134) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-149	+115	-
BetRivers	4.5	-136	+102	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kyle Leahy: K/9 7.8, proj 5.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 36.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 25.7%, L7 27.4%, season 25.2%, active roster 25.5%/6 hitters (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 23.7% vs season 19.3%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 (+109) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	6.5	+125	-164	Recommended
BetRivers	6.5	+107	-143	-
DK	6.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+112	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 30.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.97K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 9.8, proj 8.5K over 6.1 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.9% | put-away% 25.0% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Changeup (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Laz Diaz — 9.5 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.06x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 123 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .681
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 123 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.3%, L7 24.7%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.6%/123 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 7.20
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.0 ppts (recent 22.4% vs season 27.4%, proj adj -2.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor McDonald Over 3.5 (+118) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	3.5	+117	-152	-
BetRivers	3.5	+114	-152	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+118	-151	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+118	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 20.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.72K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Trevor McDonald: K/9 6.7, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.3% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Estabrook — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 24.6%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 23.6% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.6% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 4.15
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.3 ppts (recent 12.3% vs season 18.6%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 4.5 (-145) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-169	+130	-
BetRivers	4.5	-157	+118	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
DK	4.5	-145	+114	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-166	+130	-
BetMGM	5.5	+130	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.79K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jose Soriano: K/9 9.1, proj 5.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 18.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 7 PA | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | AVG .200 | OPS .829
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.9%, L7 20.1%, season 20.3%, active roster 18.3%/6 hitters (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.75
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Payton Tolle Under 6.5 (-124) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -124

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	6.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
DK	6.5	-103	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-102	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 14.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.97K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Payton Tolle: K/9 9.4, proj 5.5K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Stu Scheurwater — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .385 | OPS .928
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.6%, L7 26.5%, season 24.2%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Over 5.5 (+121) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+121	-155	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.58K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Shane Baz: K/9 8.6, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Stu Scheurwater — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 63 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .161 | OPS .470
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 63 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.8%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 25.4%/63 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.21
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 25.2% vs season 20.5%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Martinez Under 3.5 (-173) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 3.07 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	2.5	-159	+118	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+320	-600	-
BetOnline	3.5	+135	-175	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+140	-185	-
DK	3.5	+135	-173	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.31K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.2% / under 59.8%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Nick Martinez: K/9 5.6, proj 3.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.1% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: John Tumpane — 9.0 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.03x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 28% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 74 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.034
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 19.1%, L7 16.3%, season 19.7%, top-6 18.2%, BVP 9.5%/74 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.2% (4/6); 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.44
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Erick Fedde Under 3.5 (-146) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	3.5	+117	-157	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+114	-146	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.30K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Erick Fedde: K/9 6.2, proj 3.2K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.0% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ryan Additon — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erick Fedde: 65 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .172 | OPS .436
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 65 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.2%, L7 22.5%, season 22.3%, top-6 22.1%, BVP 20.0%/65 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.1% (4/6); lineup K% 19.3% (6/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.16
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Wacha Under 4.5 (-126) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	4.5	-105	-127	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	-101	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.38K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael Wacha: K/9 7.5, proj 4.1K over 6.1 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Estabrook — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 19.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Wacha: 57 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .309 | OPS .933
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.5%, L7 22.9%, season 21.0%, top-6 15.4%, BVP 17.5%/57 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 15.4% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/19 (26%) | Season 5/19 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Joe Ryan Under 6.5 (-102) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	6.5	-123	-105	-
BetRivers	6.5	-137	+104	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	-125	-102	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-118	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.49K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Joe Ryan: K/9 10.8, proj 6.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: David Rackley — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 65 PA | K% 18.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .217 | OPS .627
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 65 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 16.7%, L7 27.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 18.5%/65 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.60 | Season Avg 6.40
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Alvarez Over 4.5 (+112) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -185 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -185 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-185	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	4.5	+118	-159	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Andrew Alvarez: K/9 9.6, proj 4.8K over 4.2 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Todd Tichenor — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 24.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.8%, top-6 22.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.8% (5/6); lineup K% 22.2% (7/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.08
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Over 3.5 (+103) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	3.5	+105	-135	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	-113	-118	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
DK	3.5	+103	-132	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-102	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.13K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.4% / under 53.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 8.1, proj 3.6K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 24.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .377
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.2%, L7 22.9%, season 19.7%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.42
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 (+116) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 4.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 4.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	-
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	4.5	-155	+116	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.16K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.9, proj 4.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dillon Wilson — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.319
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.3%, L7 20.4%, season 23.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.8% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 22.8% vs season 18.4%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 (+101) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 4.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 4.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	-
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+105	-
BetRivers	4.5	-141	+107	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.12K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tanner Bibee: K/9 6.3, proj 4.4K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Cutter (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: David Rackley — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Cutter: 19.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 77 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .183 | OPS .571
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 24.7%/77 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.35
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.1 ppts (recent 13.9% vs season 19.0%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 111 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 (+100) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-133	-
BetRivers	5.5	+104	-137	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	+100	-128	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.14K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jack Flaherty: K/9 10.6, proj 5.6K over 4.7 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tripp Gibson — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jack Flaherty: 87 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .189 | OPS .623
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 87 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.5%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 21.8%/87 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.5% (6/6); lineup K% 20.7% (8/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Weathers Under 6.5 (-113) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 6.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 6.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	6.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	6.5	-120	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	6.5	+107	-143	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
DK	6.5	-113	-113	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-102	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.09K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.7, proj 6.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 23.2% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Paul Clemons — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 24 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .683
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.5%, L7 26.5%, season 24.0%, top-6 22.6%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.6% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 6.11
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — George Kirby Over 6.5 (-134) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-125	-103	-
BetRivers	6.5	-121	-110	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-113	-113	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.09K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
George Kirby: K/9 8.6, proj 6.6K over 6.2 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Sweeper (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dillon Wilson — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs George Kirby: 40 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .289 | OPS .878
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 25.0%, L7 21.6%, season 24.8%, BVP 25.0%/40 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
K% trend: support +4.1 ppts (recent 25.6% vs season 21.5%, proj adj +2.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Under 7.5 (-135) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 7.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	+112	-145	-
BetRivers	7.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+110	-145	-
DK	7.5	+106	-135	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.4K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 1.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.09K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Dylan Cease: K/9 13.6, proj 7.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 35.6% | put-away% 24.9% | xwOBA 0.264 | top pitch: Changeup (57% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: John Tumpane — 9.0 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.03x)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 23.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dylan Cease: 83 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 18.1% | AVG .277 | OPS .772
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 83 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 17.2%, L7 18.0%, season 18.9%, top-6 17.0%, BVP 12.0%/83 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/17 (29%) | Season 5/17 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.20 | Season Avg 8.71
Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Janson Junk Under 3.5 (+103) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	-
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-132	+102	-
BetRivers	3.5	-104	-129	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-131	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.03K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Janson Junk: K/9 7.1, proj 3.5K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.2% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 19% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Janson Junk: 18 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .188 | OPS .903
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 20.4%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, top-6 17.1%, BVP 11.1%/18 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.1% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 (-143) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-350	-
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	+107	-139	-
BetRivers	5.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Freddy Peralta: K/9 9.5, proj 5.5K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Cory Blaser — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .417 | OPS .917
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.7%, L7 24.5%, season 21.2%, BVP 33.3%/12 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 19 play(s) (A 1 | C 18)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — Jack Flaherty Over 1.5 (-187) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-187	+140	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.435196018619293 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.5 IP (BB% 10.8%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.16x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jack Flaherty: 87 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .189 | OPS .623
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.5%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 21.8%/87 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 11.6%, L7 10.3%, season 11.1%, BVP 11.5%/87 PA (adj 1.16x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (6/6); lineup K% 20.7% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (+109) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+109	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8673199899740685 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .385 | OPS .928
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.6%, L7 26.5%, season 24.2%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 10.2%, L7 12.5%, season 10.2%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bryce Elder Over 1.5 (-104) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8119295882038913 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryce Elder: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .860
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 21.7%, L7 16.7%, season 22.4%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 10.2%, L7 12.0%, season 9.2%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kyle Leahy Over 1.5 (+112) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.772945554973074 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 25.7%, L7 27.4%, season 25.2% (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.7%, L7 9.1%, season 8.5% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 (-156) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+118	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.236518404107279 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.20 over 5.8 IP (BB% 4.8%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 123 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .681
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.3%, L7 24.7%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.6%/123 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.0%, L7 8.5%, season 10.4%, BVP 4.9%/123 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-137) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.079507234489001 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .417 | OPS .917
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.7%, L7 24.5%, season 21.2%, BVP 33.3%/12 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 11.4%, L7 13.4%, season 10.8%, BVP 0.0%/12 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jeffrey Springs Over 1.5 (-193) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-193	+144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7391777123737642 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 61.6% / under 38.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .377
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.2%, L7 22.9%, season 19.7%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.6%, L7 10.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Erick Fedde Over 1.5 (-107) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7179165862208416 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.4% / under 51.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erick Fedde: 65 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .172 | OPS .436
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.2%, L7 22.5%, season 22.3%, top-6 22.1%, BVP 20.0%/65 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 7.2%, L7 7.9%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.7%/65 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.1% (4/6); lineup K% 19.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob deGrom Under 1.5 (-117) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2832934347054683 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.5 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob deGrom: 17 PA | K% 5.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .502
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.4%, L7 26.6%, season 23.8%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.8%, L7 7.0%, season 8.9%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Joe Ryan Under 1.5 (-148) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3216064799635285 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.4 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 65 PA | K% 18.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .217 | OPS .627
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 16.7%, L7 27.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 18.5%/65 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.9%, L7 6.4%, season 9.7%, BVP 6.2%/65 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Braxton Ashcraft Over 1.5 (+103) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.622223728266198 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.6 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.16x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 24.1%, top-6 21.1% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 13.7%, L7 8.5%, season 10.1% (adj 1.16x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jameson Taillon Over 1.5 (+119) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5904246694315403 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jameson Taillon: 48 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .196 | OPS .621
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.8%, L7 26.2%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.9%/48 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.6%, L7 6.9%, season 9.4%, BVP 4.2%/48 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Wacha Over 1.5 (+126) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.586262225748562 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.9 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Wacha: 57 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .309 | OPS .933
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.5%, L7 22.9%, season 21.0%, top-6 15.4%, BVP 17.5%/57 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 6.5%, L7 9.2%, season 6.7%, BVP 3.5%/57 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trevor McDonald Under 1.5 (-132) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.434521320079645 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 24.6%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 23.6% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 9.3%, L7 5.1%, season 8.5% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tanner Bibee Over 1.5 (-130) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5622475441313919 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 77 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .183 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 24.7%/77 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.6%, L7 7.5%, season 8.7%, BVP 3.9%/77 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — JP Sears Over 1.5 (+121) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5536454136465316 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs JP Sears: 72 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .235 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 21.2%, top-6 20.4%, BVP 13.9%/72 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.7%, L7 9.1%, season 7.9%, BVP 4.2%/72 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.4% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/4 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Weathers Under 1.5 (-121) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4562005703609047 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.0 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 24 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .683
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.5%, L7 26.5%, season 24.0%, top-6 22.6%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 8.1%, L7 8.2%, season 9.5%, BVP 12.5%/24 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emmet Sheehan Under 1.5 (+137) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-183	+137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4830380911759549 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.6 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emmet Sheehan: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .105 | OPS .296
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.6%, L7 26.9%, season 23.7%, top-6 23.0%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.0%, L7 7.1%, season 7.9%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.0% (6/6); lineup K% 22.6% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Mitch Bratt Over 1.5 (+158) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+158	-213	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5113749747479062 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 3.8 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 3.0 IP/GS; recent 3.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 36.3% / under 63.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 28.1%, L7 24.4%, season 22.9% (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.8%, L7 6.3%, season 9.2% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/2 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (+113) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 18.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 18.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	18.5	+105	-145	-
DK	18.5	+113	-150	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+102	-136	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.584 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.4 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.4 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 123 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .681
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.3%, L7 24.7%, season 20.5%, BVP 23.6%/123 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.0%, L7 8.5%, season 10.4%, BVP 4.9%/123 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.4 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 19.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 17.5 (-165) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 17.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 17.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
DK	17.5	-165	+124	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.255 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.62 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dylan Cease: 83 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 18.1% | AVG .277 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 17.2%, L7 18.0%, season 18.9%, top-6 17.0%, BVP 12.0%/83 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 9.4%, L7 7.0%, season 9.2%, BVP 18.1%/83 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.75 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.75 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Over 17.5 (-153) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
DK	17.5	-153	+115	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+116	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 19.169999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.30 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Wacha: 57 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .309 | OPS .933
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.5%, L7 22.9%, season 21.0%, top-6 15.4%, BVP 17.5%/57 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 6.5%, L7 9.2%, season 6.7%, BVP 3.5%/57 PA (adj 0.88x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Ryan Weathers Under 17.5 (-130) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-105	-135	-
BetOnline	17.5	+100	-140	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
DK	17.5	-102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-108	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 15.896 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.28 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 76)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 76
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 24 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .683
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.5%, L7 26.5%, season 24.0%, top-6 22.6%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 8.1%, L7 8.2%, season 9.5%, BVP 12.5%/24 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 16.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — George Kirby Over 18.5 (+129) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 18 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 18.42 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 5 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 18 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	18	-120	-120	Recommended
BetMGM	18.5	+125	-175	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	18.5	+129	-172	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+130	-178	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.133 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 8.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 18.42 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs George Kirby: 40 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .289 | OPS .878
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 25.0%, L7 21.6%, season 24.8%, BVP 25.0%/40 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.2%, L7 6.1%, season 9.6%, BVP 5.0%/40 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 18.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 (-126) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-140	+100	-
BetOnline	17.5	-130	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
DK	17.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+102	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.525000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 24.1%, top-6 21.1% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 13.7%, L7 8.5%, season 10.1% (adj 1.16x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 (-103) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 17.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 17.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 17.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	17.5	-135	-105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
DK	17.5	-128	-103	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.737000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.33 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 77 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .183 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 24.7%/77 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.6%, L7 7.5%, season 8.7%, BVP 3.9%/77 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 16.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Joe Ryan Over 17.5 (-196) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -196

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.58 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 18 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-185	+130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
DK	17.5	-196	+143	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+134	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	-
BetOnline	18	-120	-120	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.674 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.46 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 61.7% / under 38.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.58 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 65 PA | K% 18.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .217 | OPS .627
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 16.7%, L7 27.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 18.5%/65 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.9%, L7 6.4%, season 9.7%, BVP 6.2%/65 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 16.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Under 17.5 (-108) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-118	-115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-130	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-122	-108	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.450999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.4% / under 48.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 63 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .161 | OPS .470
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.8%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 25.4%/63 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.9%, L7 9.8%, season 8.1%, BVP 4.8%/63 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Freeland Under 7.5 (-157) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.75 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 6.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-140	+105	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	6.5	-150	+105	-
DK	7.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 6.4 vs line 7.5 | DIFF% 14.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.29 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 4.5%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.75 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 23 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .399
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 26.4%, L7 20.8%, season 21.5%, lineup 21.6%, BVP 30.4%/23 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); lineup K% 21.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.60 | Season Avg 6.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Erick Fedde Under 5.5 (-162) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+121	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erick Fedde: 65 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .172 | OPS .436
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.2%, L7 22.5%, season 22.3%, top-6 22.1%, BVP 20.0%/65 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.1% (4/6); lineup K% 19.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — JP Sears Under 5.5 (-115) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs JP Sears: 72 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .235 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 21.2%, top-6 20.4%, BVP 13.9%/72 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.4% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/4 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Wacha Under 6.5 (-114) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-120	-120	-
DK	6.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.9 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.0%)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Wacha: 57 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .309 | OPS .933
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.5%, L7 22.9%, season 21.0%, top-6 15.4%, BVP 17.5%/57 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 5.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 (-119) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.24 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.61, BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .377
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.2%, L7 22.9%, season 19.7%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Elder Over 5.5 (-120) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.12 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryce Elder: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .860
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 21.7%, L7 16.7%, season 22.4%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Under 5.5 (+102) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.10, BB% 4.4%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.11x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 74 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.034
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 19.1%, L7 16.3%, season 19.7%, top-6 18.2%, BVP 9.5%/74 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Weathers Under 5.5 (-165) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 4.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-140	+100	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 6.6%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Weathers: 24 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .683
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.5%, L7 26.5%, season 24.0%, top-6 22.6%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Over 5.5 (-158) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-158	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 63 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .161 | OPS .470
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.4%, L7 19.6%, season 21.8%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 25.4%/63 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Flaherty Under 2.5 (+117) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +117

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 2.5 +117; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-156	+117	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.45, ERA 3.82)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.6 outs/4.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jack Flaherty: 87 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .189 | OPS .623
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.5%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 21.8%/87 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (6/6); lineup K% 20.7% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Joe Ryan Over 1.5 (-171) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-171	+128	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.91 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.46, ERA 2.53)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 65 PA | K% 18.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .217 | OPS .627
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 16.7%, L7 27.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 18.5%/65 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Bratt Under 2.5 (-175) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+131	-175	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.21 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 4.98)
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 3.0 IP/GS; recent 3.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 28.1%, L7 24.4%, season 22.9% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 (+112) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.81 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.79, ERA 4.31)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.319
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.3%, L7 20.4%, season 23.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 (-127) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	-104	-127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.2 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.60 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 6.95)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 23 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .399
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 26.4%, L7 20.8%, season 21.5%, lineup 21.6%, BVP 30.4%/23 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); lineup K% 21.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor McDonald Under 2.5 (+109) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-144	+109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.37 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.04, ERA 5.22)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 24.6%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 23.6% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Over 2.5 (-103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-103	-129	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.67 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 5.46)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Janson Junk: 18 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .188 | OPS .903
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 20.4%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, top-6 17.1%, BVP 11.1%/18 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-150) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.76, ERA 4.37)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 7 PA | K% 42.9% | BB% 28.6% | AVG .200 | OPS .829
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.9%, L7 20.1%, season 20.3% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (-111) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-111	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 3.87)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 77 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .183 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 24.7%/77 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Over 2.5 (-112) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.16 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 2.91)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 74 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.034
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 19.1%, L7 16.3%, season 19.7%, top-6 18.2%, BVP 9.5%/74 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — JP Sears Over 2.5 (-134) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.79 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 4.78)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs JP Sears: 72 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .235 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 18.7%, L7 19.9%, season 21.2%, top-6 20.4%, BVP 13.9%/72 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.4% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.75 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Elder Over 2.5 (-139) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-139	+105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.62 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 5.83)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryce Elder: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .860
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 21.7%, L7 16.7%, season 22.4%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-103) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	-105	-
DK	2.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.72 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 5.90)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .417 | OPS .917
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.7%, L7 24.5%, season 21.2%, BVP 33.3%/12 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Erick Fedde Under 2.5 (-109) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	-
DK	2.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.70 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.95, ERA 3.83)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erick Fedde: 65 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .172 | OPS .436
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.2%, L7 22.5%, season 22.3%, top-6 22.1%, BVP 20.0%/65 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.1% (4/6); lineup K% 19.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 1.5 (-109) Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.25 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 2.62, ERA 2.31)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dylan Cease: 83 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 18.1% | AVG .277 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 17.2%, L7 18.0%, season 18.9%, top-6 17.0%, BVP 12.0%/83 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ronel Blanco Under 2.5 (-165) Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ronel Blanco: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS .944
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 16.5%, L7 22.4%, season 21.5%, top-6 19.0%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	87.4	91.7	95.5	5	Curveball (48% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 37.8%, put-away 32.5%, xwOBA 0.224, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	74.3	79.9	75.5	6	Changeup (57% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 35.6%, put-away 24.9%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	67.4	78.7	63.0	5	Changeup (44% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 34.8%, put-away 25.4%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	66.6	70.6	68.0	3	Changeup (45% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	62.7	56.5	72.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 48% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	62.4	62.4	66.0	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	59.9	56.2	68.0	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	58.0	63.7	54.5	4	Slider (39% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	55.9	55.9	56.0	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals	55.7	68.0	46.5	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	53.5	62.8	45.5	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	51.7	56.6	47.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	51.3	48.7	56.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds	50.4	45.5	55.0	6	Sweeper (27% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	49.7	54.1	47.0	5	Slider (38% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	49.2	44.2	54.5	5	Slider (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants	48.0	45.5	50.0	6	Changeup (30% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.4	47.0	42.5	5	Changeup (40% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	45.4	35.4	53.0	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	45.2	44.0	46.5	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	45.0	50.2	41.5	6	Cutter (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	43.0	43.3	40.0	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jameson Taillon	Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers	40.9	53.7	29.0	6	Sweeper (32% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	40.6	50.3	30.5	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	39.0	33.3	42.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	39.0	47.5	28.0	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	37.9	45.3	31.0	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	37.3	34.7	41.0	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics	20.3	18.5	16.5	5	Slider (44% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 13.4%, put-away 7.9%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics	L	17.8%	3.0	3.0	4.9	50	short	full	16.50	83.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.0 IP/start
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	19.4%	4.3	5.1	5.0	72	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	R	18.6%	4.8	5.7	5.5	80	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.2%	5.8	5.9	6.0	97	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	L	25.6%	5.0	5.6	5.5	84	short	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Jameson Taillon	Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers	R	20.1%	4.3	5.2	5.0	72	short	full	29.00	71.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	R	15.5%	4.5	4.9	4.9	76	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	L	19.9%	5.0	5.2	5.2	84	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	R	17.2%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	L	21.3%	5.8	5.2	5.3	97	normal	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	R	27.0%	4.8	4.6	4.6	80	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants	R	20.0%	6.1	6.3	6.2	102	deep	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	23.6%	4.8	5.5	5.4	80	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	27.2%	4.5	4.8	4.8	76	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	R	18.0%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	R	40.6%	6.6	6.2	6.2	111	deep	full	95.50	4.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	29.2%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Freddy Peralta	New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	21.9%	3.9	5.2	5.0	65	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	27.3%	4.5	5.4	5.2	76	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	25.7%	5.6	6.4	6.2	94	normal	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	R	29.4%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	L	21.1%	4.6	4.9	5.2	77	short	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	R	16.8%	4.6	5.1	5.0	77	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds	R	22.9%	6.4	6.1	6.2	107	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	R	20.9%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	15.2%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	R	30.9%	6.0	5.6	6.0	101	deep	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	37.0%	5.9	5.8	6.0	99	normal	full	75.50	24.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	L	24.1%	3.9	4.4	4.8	65	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	20.6	2.1	11.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	19.3	1.8	10.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.75 <= 3 min
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	19.2	1.7	9.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Ryan Weathers	Ryan Weathers Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.2	76	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
George Kirby	George Kirby Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Braxton Ashcraft	Braxton Ashcraft Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees	17.5	18.5	1.0	5.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Under	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Joe Ryan	Joe Ryan Over	Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	17.5	-0.1	0.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes