| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 430 | 57% | +0.57u | 63 | 51% | -5.98u | 198 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 380 | 59% | +16.40u | 52 | 58% | +0.40u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 367 | 59% | +1.66u | 90 | 61% | +2.87u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 266 | 60% | -9.72u | 71 | 62% | +0.12u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 107 | 46% | -14.11u | 9 | 44% | -2.09u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | 87.4 | 91.7 | 95.5 | 5 | Curveball (48% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 37.8%, put-away 32.5%, xwOBA 0.224, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | 74.3 | 79.9 | 75.5 | 6 | Changeup (57% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 35.6%, put-away 24.9%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 67.4 | 78.7 | 63.0 | 5 | Changeup (44% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 34.8%, put-away 25.4%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 66.6 | 70.6 | 68.0 | 3 | Changeup (45% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 62.7 | 56.5 | 72.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 48% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | 62.4 | 62.4 | 66.0 | 5 | Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | 59.9 | 56.2 | 68.0 | 6 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | 58.0 | 63.7 | 54.5 | 4 | Slider (39% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | 55.9 | 55.9 | 56.0 | 5 | Curveball (36% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | 55.7 | 68.0 | 46.5 | 5 | Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.5 | 62.8 | 45.5 | 5 | Sweeper (44% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Flaherty | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | 51.7 | 56.6 | 47.0 | 5 | Curveball (38% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 51.3 | 48.7 | 56.0 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | 50.4 | 45.5 | 55.0 | 6 | Sweeper (27% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | 49.7 | 54.1 | 47.0 | 5 | Slider (38% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | 49.2 | 44.2 | 54.5 | 5 | Slider (38% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | 48.0 | 45.5 | 50.0 | 6 | Changeup (30% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.4 | 47.0 | 42.5 | 5 | Changeup (40% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | 45.4 | 35.4 | 53.0 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 45.2 | 44.0 | 46.5 | 5 | Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 45.0 | 50.2 | 41.5 | 6 | Cutter (34% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | 43.0 | 43.3 | 40.0 | 5 | Changeup (37% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jameson Taillon | Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | 40.9 | 53.7 | 29.0 | 6 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | 40.6 | 50.3 | 30.5 | 6 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | 39.0 | 33.3 | 42.0 | 5 | Changeup (26% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | 39.0 | 47.5 | 28.0 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | 37.9 | 45.3 | 31.0 | 6 | Changeup (38% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | 37.3 | 34.7 | 41.0 | 6 | Changeup (35% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | 20.3 | 18.5 | 16.5 | 5 | Slider (44% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 13.4%, put-away 7.9%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ronel Blanco | Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics | L | 17.8% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 50 | short | full | 16.50 | 83.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.0 IP/start |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 19.4% | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 72 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | R | 18.6% | 4.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 80 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | R | 22.2% | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 25.6% | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Jameson Taillon | Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers | R | 20.1% | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 72 | short | full | 29.00 | 71.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | R | 15.5% | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 76 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | L | 19.9% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | R | 17.2% | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 96 | normal | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | L | 21.3% | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 97 | normal | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jack Flaherty | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | R | 27.0% | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 80 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| Ronel Blanco | Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants | R | 20.0% | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 102 | deep | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 23.6% | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 80 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 27.2% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | R | 18.0% | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets | R | 40.6% | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 111 | deep | full | 95.50 | 4.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 29.2% | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 94 | normal | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 21.9% | 3.9 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 65 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 27.3% | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 76 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 25.7% | 5.6 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 94 | normal | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | R | 29.4% | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | L | 21.1% | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 77 | short | full | 30.50 | 69.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | R | 16.8% | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 77 | short | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 22.9% | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 107 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 20.9% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 15.2% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 89 | normal | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | R | 30.9% | 6.0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 37.0% | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 75.50 | 24.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | L | 24.1% | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 65 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 20.6 | 2.1 | 11.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.2 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min |
| Dylan Cease | Dylan Cease Over | Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 10.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.75 <= 3 min |
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Over | San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 9.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Ryan Weathers | Ryan Weathers Under | Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 9.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.2 | 76 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Over | Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners | 18.5 | 20.1 | 1.6 | 8.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Braxton Ashcraft Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 18.5 | 1.0 | 5.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Tanner Bibee | Tanner Bibee Under | Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Joe Ryan | Joe Ryan Over | Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shane Baz | Shane Baz Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 17.5 | -0.1 | 0.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: top-six opp K% 19.0%, 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -153, lineup BVP damage OPS 0.944/AVG 0.375 over 9 PA | K Prop | Ronel Blanco Over | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.8 | -153 | DK Over 3.5 -153 | exact | 37.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan Over | DOD@PHI | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 7.4 | -122 | DK Over 5.5 -122 | exact | 34.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 6.5 | 7.7 | -131 | BetRivers Over 6.5 -114 | best price | 17.9% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Andrew Alvarez Under | NAT@ROC | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | +105 | DK Under 5.5 +105 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sanchez Over | DOD@PHI | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -142 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Bibee Under | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -136 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor McDonald Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | +108 | DK Under 5.5 +108 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-231); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | George Kirby Over | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -231 | DK Over 0.5 -231 | exact | 149.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-192); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Dylan Cease Over | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 3.0 | -192 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price | 97.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-209); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Nick Martinez Over | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 0.5 | 1.0 | -209 | theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | best price | 91.9% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-192); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Jose Soriano Over | CAR@ANG | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | -192 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price | 72.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Abbott Over | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -136 | DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact | 56.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Shane Baz Over | ORI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -170 | DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact | 31.8% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | George Kirby Over | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 53.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Alvarez Under | NAT@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | +108 | DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob deGrom Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -144 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price | 26.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Payton Tolle Under | ORI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -144 | DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Under | DOD@PHI | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.1 | -149 | DK Over 2.5 -149 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Under | ORI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | -160 | DK Under 3.5 -160 | exact | 22.9% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x) | Pitcher Earned R | Braxton Ashcraft Under | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -169 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x) | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Weathers Under | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -147 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Wacha Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -153 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Leahy Under | CAR@ANG | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Emmet Sheehan Under | DOD@PHI | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -114 | DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Jameson Taillon Over | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -141 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!✓–✓ | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals | ||||||||||||
| A (Weak) | ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Framework warning(s): Matchup — posture note at B | K Prop | Jameson Taillon Over | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 3.5 | 5.1 | -157 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -148 | best price | 44.4% | ✓✓✓!–✓ | Lean Signal - Small Stake |
| A (Weak) | ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B | Pitcher Walks | Jack Flaherty Over | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -187 | DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact | 62.4% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Small Stake |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 41.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Kyle Freeland Over | NAT@ROC | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | +113 | BetRivers Over 4.5 +125 | best price | 25.8% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Jacob Misiorowski Over | MET@BRE | 7:41 PM | 8.5 | 10.2 | +105 | DK Over 8.5 +105 | exact | 20.4% | ✓✓✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | DOD@PHI | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 8.5 | +109 | BetOnline Over 6.5 +125 | best price | 30.2% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor McDonald Over | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | +118 | FanDuel Over 3.5 +118 | best price | 20.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | CAR@ANG | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -145 | DK Over 4.5 -145 | exact | 17.6% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Payton Tolle Under | ORI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 5.5 | -124 | DK Under 6.5 -124 | exact | 14.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Baz Over | ORI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +121 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | alt rescue | 10.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Martinez Under | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -173 | DK Under 3.5 -173 | exact | 8.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Erick Fedde Under | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -146 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price | 8.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Wacha Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -126 | DK Under 4.5 -126 | exact | 8.4% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Joe Ryan Under | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.0 | -102 | Bovada Direct Under 6.5 +110 | best price | 7.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Alvarez Over | NAT@ROC | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | +112 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -185 | alt rescue | 6.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@DIA | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | +103 | BetOnline Over 3.5 +105 | best price | 3.7% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Abbott Under | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | +116 | BetOnline Under 4.5 +125 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Bibee Under | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | +101 | BetRivers Under 4.5 +107 | best price | 2.8% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Flaherty Over | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +100 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +104 | best price | 2.6% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Weathers Under | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | -113 | BetOnline Under 6.5 -108 | best price | 1.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | George Kirby Over | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.6 | -134 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -113 | best price | 1.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Dylan Cease Under | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 7.5 | 7.4 | -135 | DK Under 7.5 -135 | exact | 1.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Janson Junk Under | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | +103 | DK Under 3.5 +103 | exact | 0.9% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@BRE | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -143 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | DOD@PHI | 7:11 PM | 18.5 | 20.6 | +113 | BetMGM Over 18.5 +115 | best price | 11.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.75 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Dylan Cease Over | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 19.3 | -165 | BetOnline Over 17.5 -160 | best price | 10.0% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael Wacha Over | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 19.2 | -153 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -150 | best price | 9.5% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ryan Weathers Under | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 15.9 | -130 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -125 | best price | 9.2% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | George Kirby Over | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 18.5 | 20.1 | +129 | BetOnline Over 18 -120 | alt rescue | 8.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.5 | -126 | DK Over 17.5 -126 | exact | 5.9% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tanner Bibee Under | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | -103 | theScore Bet Under 17.5 +100 | best price | 4.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Joe Ryan Over | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.7 | -196 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price | 1.0% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shane Baz Under | ORI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.5 | -108 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -105 | best price | 0.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Freeland Under | NAT@ROC | 8:41 PM | 7.5 | 6.4 | -157 | DK Under 7.5 -157 | exact | 14.7% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Hits All | Erick Fedde Under | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -162 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -150 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | JP Sears Under | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -115 | DK Under 5.5 -115 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Wacha Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 5.9 | -114 | DK Under 6.5 -114 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -119 | DK Over 5.5 -119 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Bryce Elder Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -120 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +100 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Martinez Under | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | +102 | DK Under 5.5 +102 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Weathers Under | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -165 | DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Baz Over | ORI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -158 | theScore Bet Over 5.5 -150 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Payton Tolle Over | ORI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +109 | DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact | 24.5% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Bryce Elder Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -104 | DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact | 20.8% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Leahy Over | CAR@ANG | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +112 | DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact | 18.2% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Cristopher Sanchez Under | DOD@PHI | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -156 | DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact | 17.6% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Walks | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@BRE | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -137 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -135 | best price | 16.8% | ✓!!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -193 | DK Over 1.5 -193 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Erick Fedde Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -107 | DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Jacob deGrom Under | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -117 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price | 14.4% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Joe Ryan Under | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -148 | DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact | 11.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +103 | DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact | 8.2% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jameson Taillon Over | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +119 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price | 6.0% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Michael Wacha Over | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +126 | DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact | 5.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Trevor McDonald Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -132 | DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact | 4.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Tanner Bibee Over | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -130 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price | 4.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | JP Sears Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +121 | DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Weathers Under | PIR@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -121 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price | 2.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Emmet Sheehan Under | DOD@PHI | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +137 | DK Under 1.5 +137 | exact | 1.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Mitch Bratt Over | ATH@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +158 | DK Over 1.5 +158 | exact | 0.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Jack Flaherty Under | TIG@CUB | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | +117 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | alt rescue | 16.0% | ✓!!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Joe Ryan Over | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -171 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Mitch Bratt Under | ATH@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -175 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Abbott Over | RED@MAR | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +112 | DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Freeland Under | NAT@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -127 | BetMGM Under 3.5 +100 | best price | 8.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor McDonald Under | GIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | +109 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Janson Junk Over | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -103 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jose Soriano Under | CAR@ANG | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Bibee Over | TWI@GUA | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -111 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Martinez Over | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -112 | DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | JP Sears Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -134 | DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Elder Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -139 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@BRE | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -103 | DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Erick Fedde Under | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -109 | DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dylan Cease Under | RAY@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -109 | BetMGM Under 1.5 +105 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ronel Blanco Under | MAR@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -165 | DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 23.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryce Elder Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.3 | -141 | DK Over 3.5 -141 | exact | 23.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jacob deGrom Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 7.5 | 8.5 | +120 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -146 | alt rescue | 13.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | JP Sears Over | PAD@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -125 | DK Over 3.5 -125 | exact | 11.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Leahy Over | CAR@ANG | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -134 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -128 | best price | 10.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context