MLB Bets 2026-07-12

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	230W–155L–0P	60%	+4.13 u	Last 14 days • 385 settled
Grade A	23W–15L–0P	61%	+1.88 u
Grade B	207W–140L–0P	60%	+2.26 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2027W–1441L–8P	58%	-130.90 u	All-time • 3476 settled
Grade A	208W–150L–0P	58%	+4.99 u
Grade B	1819W–1291L–8P	58%	-135.89 u

47 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	Dustin May	4.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	4.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	MacKenzie Gore	4.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	Seth Lugo	5.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	Shane Baz	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	K Prop	Tarik Skubal	7.5	-110	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	2.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	1.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	JR Ritchie	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael Lorenzen	2.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Payton Tolle	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Trevor McDonald	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Tyler Phillips	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Zack Wheeler	2.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Dustin May	5.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael Lorenzen	5.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Schultz	5.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Robert Gasser	5.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Outs	Zack Wheeler	17.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Abbott	1.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	JR Ritchie	1.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Noah Schultz	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-12	Pitcher Walks	Tarik Skubal	1.5	-209	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-11	K Prop	Griffin Jax	5.5	-133	-	LOSS	-1.000	Griffin Jax: 3.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-11	K Prop	Peter Lambert	4.5	-112	-	WIN	+0.893	Peter Lambert: 7.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-11	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	7.5	120	-	LOSS	-1.000	Cristopher Sánchez: 7.0 (line 7.5)
2026-07-11	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	6.5	-143	-	WIN	+0.699	Cristopher Sánchez: 7.0 (line 6.5)
2026-07-11	K Prop	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.5	-159	-	WIN	+0.629	Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 6.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	400	57%	+1.66u	72	57%	-1.10u	184	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	350	59%	+18.18u	78	64%	+8.30u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	317	60%	+4.36u	114	60%	+2.01u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	230	58%	-14.06u	85	55%	-10.24u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	102	45%	-14.13u	11	45%	-1.60u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 400, 14d N 72	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 350, 14d N 78	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 102, 14d N 11	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 743 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 310 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 212 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 721 pitcher(s), 3161 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 550 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1180 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, Cincinnati Reds, Athletics, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 356 market side(s) checked \| 356 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 595 \| batter bats 397 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 550 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	12:16 PM	+104	-126	+1.5 (-203)	-1.5 (+166)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	-114	-105	-1.5 (+137)	+1.5 (-167)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	-126	+104	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds	1:41 PM	-131	+108	-1.5 (+122)	+1.5 (-147)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins	1:41 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-187)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers	1:41 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+160)	+1.5 (-196)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	-102	-119	-1.5 (+165)	+1.5 (-201)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers	4:11 PM	+183	-225	+1.5 (-107)	-1.5 (-113)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres	4:11 PM	-131	+108	-1.5 (+131)	+1.5 (-158)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

4 Grade A | 25 Grade B | 70 Review-Only | 0 Pass | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 4 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A ⭐ TOP PICK	⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -163	K Prop	Joey Cantillo Over	GUA@MAR	1:41 PM	4.5	6.7	-163	DK Over 4.5 -163 \| exact	48.6%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A ⭐ TOP PICK	⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch	K Prop	MacKenzie Gore Over	AST@RAN	2:36 PM	4.5	6.5	-128	FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 \| best price	44.5%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A ⭐ TOP PICK	⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch	K Prop	Dustin May Over	BRA@CAR	2:16 PM	4.5	6.0	-127	DK Over 4.5 -127 \| exact	34.4%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Tarik Skubal Over	PHI@TIG	1:41 PM	7.5	9.5	-110	DK Over 7.5 -110 \| exact	27.2%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - Seth Lugo Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.7

K Prop - Robert Gasser Over

Projection: 5.0Displayed: Over 4.5 -163Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 5Recommended: BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

⭐ TOP PICKS - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A BEST PLAY ⭐ TOP PICK K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 4.5 (-163) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
DK	4.5	-163	+127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-166	+130	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+120	-

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 48.6% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.19K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Joey Cantillo: K/9 9.4, proj 6.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 19.2%, L7 13.3%, season 21.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 28.2% vs season 23.5%, proj adj +2.3%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -163 -- A-grade risk note

A BEST PLAY ⭐ TOP PICK K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Over 4.5 (-128) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 44.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.00K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 10.1, proj 6.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .319 | OPS .906
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.2%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.84
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

A BEST PLAY ⭐ TOP PICK K Prop — Dustin May Over 4.5 (-127) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-127	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-135	+100	-

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 34.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.55K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Dustin May: K/9 9.5, proj 6.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 64 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .196 | OPS .708
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.9%, L7 25.9%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.2%/7 hitters, BVP 31.2%/64 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
K% trend: support +8.4 ppts (recent 31.4% vs season 23.0%, proj adj +4.2%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 (-110) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	-125	-103	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-115	-
DK	7.5	-110	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	7.5	-113	-113	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-120	-

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 27.2% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.04K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Tarik Skubal: K/9 11.4, proj 9.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.5% | put-away% 23.3% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Changeup (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 96 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .236 | OPS .573
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 96 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 23.8%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, active roster 22.5%/7 hitters, BVP 33.3%/96 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
K% trend: support +5.1 ppts (recent 35.5% vs season 30.4%, proj adj +2.5%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (25 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 5.5 (-162) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 4.5 +106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-133	+103	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-140	+105	-
DK	5.5	+127	-162	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✓!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 29.6% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.63K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Seth Lugo: K/9 6.7, proj 3.9K over 5.2 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.8% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Cutter (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Cutter: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .121 | OPS .463
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 73 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.1%, L7 20.9%, season 24.0%, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.63K, diff 29.6%, books 100%)

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-127) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	-101	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+128	-164	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Checks: ✓✓!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 21.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 47.3% / under 52.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.19K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Shane Baz: K/9 7.4, proj 4.3K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Curveball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 25.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 46 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .617
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 24.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.7%/6 hitters, BVP 13.0%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 (-170) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-170	+128	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 20.618 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 17.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.90 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 60 PA | K% 38.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .138 | OPS .425
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.6%, L7 23.2%, season 23.0%, BVP 38.3%/60 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.7%, L7 9.7%, season 9.6%, BVP 3.3%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/14 (79%) | Season 11/14 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.70 | Season Avg 18.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Schultz Under 5.5 (-142) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 11.7%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 28.4%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Lorenzen Over 5.5 (-134) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 6.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.36 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.70, BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .366 | OPS .912
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.2%, L7 22.1%, season 20.7%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dustin May Under 5.5 (-135) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 64 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .196 | OPS .708
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.9%, L7 25.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.2%/64 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.12 vs season

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Robert Gasser Under 5.5 (-124) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 8.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.62 | Season Avg 4.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/8 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

▸ Pitcher Walks — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Joey Cantillo Over 1.5 (-168) diff 87.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8154920780124835 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 87.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 5.2 IP (BB% 11.5%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 19.2%, L7 13.3%, season 21.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 9.4%, L7 11.2%, season 9.2% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Andrew Abbott Over 1.5 (-187) diff 64.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.460757684861644 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 5.0 IP (BB% 10.3%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 124 PA | K% 15.3% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .189 | OPS .594
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 22.4%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.3%/124 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.9%, L7 8.2%, season 11.0%, BVP 12.1%/124 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Noah Schultz Over 1.5 (-123) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.3185939160514955 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 4.5 IP (BB% 11.7%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 28.4%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 10.2%, L7 5.7%, season 9.3% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Shane Baz Over 1.5 (-118) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1840935512107618 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.7 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 46 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .617
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 24.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 13.0%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.5%, L7 9.0%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.3%/46 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-124) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1138774601050097 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.5 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .319 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.2%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.5%, L7 7.3%, season 8.7%, BVP 3.9%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — JR Ritchie Over 1.5 (-117) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.028720009054589 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 4.4 IP (BB% 11.6%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.3%, L7 23.8%, season 20.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 8.4%, L7 4.8%, season 8.4% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 (-209) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -209

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 0.9866422343165078 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.18 over 5.5 IP (BB% 4.2%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 36.7% / under 63.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 96 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .236 | OPS .573
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.8%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, BVP 33.3%/96 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.9%, L7 9.6%, season 7.9%, BVP 3.1%/96 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-209); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 11 play(s) (B 11)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-155) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.92, ERA 5.17)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .319 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.2%, L7 19.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor McDonald Over 1.5 (-156) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.80 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 6.27)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor McDonald: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .750
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.2%, L7 22.7%, season 22.9% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (-118) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.71 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.62, ERA 4.31)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .494
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 16.7%, L7 30.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/24 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Over 1.5 (-172) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 2.92)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 19.2%, L7 13.3%, season 21.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-172); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — JR Ritchie Over 1.5 (-136) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.60, ERA 4.55)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.3%, L7 23.8%, season 20.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (-174) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.57 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 3.44)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 15.1%, season 21.8% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Under 2.5 (-168) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.39 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.90, ERA 2.34)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 60 PA | K% 38.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .138 | OPS .425
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.6%, L7 23.2%, season 23.0%, BVP 38.3%/60 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/14 (79%) | Season 11/14 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-168) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.22 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.26, ERA 4.31)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 73 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .182 | OPS .563
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.3%, L7 19.3%, season 20.9%, BVP 28.8%/73 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (-142) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.65 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 3.82)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 19.8%, L7 23.5%, season 23.2% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 7/32 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Cavalli Under 2.5 (-129) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.73 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.62, ERA 3.94)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.394
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 20.0%, L7 31.4%, season 24.1%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Lorenzen Over 2.5 (-130) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.41 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.70, ERA 5.56)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .366 | OPS .912
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.2%, L7 22.1%, season 20.7%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

▼ Review-Only / Do-Not-Bet Signals (70 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 21 play(s) (B 1 | C 20)

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 5.5 (-140) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-156	+120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-140	+110	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 13.2% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.72K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Ian Seymour: K/9 10.8, proj 6.2K over 4.9 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 19.8%, L7 23.5%, season 23.2% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 3/32 (9%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +2.25 vs season
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 33.0% vs season 28.7%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (+107) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+107	-137	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 29.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.64K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Jose Soriano: K/9 10.0, proj 7.1K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.4% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Curveball: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .214 | OPS .741
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.3%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 6.05
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (+115) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+115	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+108	-138	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-150	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 23.1% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.81K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Tyler Phillips: K/9 6.2, proj 4.3K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Curveball (48% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .494
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 16.7%, L7 30.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 5/24 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 23.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 23.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — JT Ginn Over 4.5 (-107) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
DK	4.5	-107	-119	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-105	-130	-

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 22.2% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.00K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
JT Ginn: K/9 7.5, proj 5.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 (-124) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	-108	-120	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+100	-130	-
DK	7.5	-124	-103	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-120	-

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 20.2% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.2% / under 47.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.52K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Zack Wheeler: K/9 11.4, proj 9.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.3% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.257 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 60 PA | K% 38.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .138 | OPS .425
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.6%, L7 23.2%, season 23.0%, BVP 38.3%/60 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.60 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
K% trend: support +8.1 ppts (recent 37.5% vs season 29.4%, proj adj +4.0%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 (-102) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	5.5	+104	-139	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 19.2% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.05K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Cade Cavalli: K/9 10.7, proj 6.6K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 42.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.394
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 20.0%, L7 31.4%, season 24.1%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 29.3% vs season 25.5%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (+111) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-141	+109	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-142	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+110	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-150	+105	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.52K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 6.7, proj 3.0K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.0% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.356 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 18.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .366 | OPS .912
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 18.2%, L7 22.1%, season 20.7%, active roster 18.2%/6 hitters, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.60
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 110 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Cristian Javier Under 3.5 (-131) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -131

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+103	-131	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-102	-125	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	-110	-130	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 13.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.45K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Cristian Javier: K/9 7.5, proj 3.0K over 3.0 IP (season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.3 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 11.9% | xwOBA 0.395 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 57 PA | K% 35.1% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .260 | OPS .811
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.3%, L7 24.1%, season 22.4%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 35.1%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: K L10: 4/5 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Payton Tolle Under 5.5 (-125) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-125	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.68K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Payton Tolle: K/9 8.9, proj 4.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.274 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 20.3%, L7 15.1%, season 21.8%, active roster 18.8%/6 hitters (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Trevor McDonald Under 4.5 (-129) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 4.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -129

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 4.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+101	-129	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-105	-130	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.51K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Trevor McDonald: K/9 7.2, proj 4.0K over 4.6 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor McDonald: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .750
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.2%, L7 22.7%, season 22.9%, active roster 21.4%/8 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.9 ppts (recent 12.9% vs season 18.8%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Robert Gasser Over 4.5 (-163) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 5.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-161	+124	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-167	+125	-
DK	4.5	-163	+128	Selected
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
FanDuel	5.5	+128	-164	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+125	-175	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.46K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Robert Gasser: K/9 8.5, proj 5.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Cutter (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Cutter: 21.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/8 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (+105) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	+105	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.57K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Kevin Gausman: K/9 9.4, proj 6.1K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.3% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 170 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .729
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 170 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.5%/170 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.68
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 6.5 (-142) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-137	+106	-
BetRivers	6.5	-137	+102	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	6.5	-142	+111	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-130	+102	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	-140	+105	-

Checks: ✓✗✓!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.52K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Paul Skenes: K/9 11.0, proj 7.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.259 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 35.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 73 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .182 | OPS .563
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 73 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.3%, L7 19.3%, season 20.9%, BVP 28.8%/73 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.47
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 5.5 (-144) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-144	+113	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-108	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-110	-

Checks: ✓✗✓!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.43K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Matthew Boyd: K/9 8.7, proj 5.9K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.9% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 80 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .304 | OPS .853
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 80 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.6%, L7 26.8%, season 25.1%, BVP 21.2%/80 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 3/8 over 5.5
K% trend: headwind -6.6 ppts (recent 19.6% vs season 26.2%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 133 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Will Warren Under 4.5 (-125) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-101	-128	-
BetRivers	4.5	-105	-127	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-105	-130	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.24K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Will Warren: K/9 8.4, proj 4.3K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .100 | OPS .282
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.0%/6 hitters, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.12 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.9 ppts (recent 16.0% vs season 22.9%, proj adj -3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zach Thornton Under 4.5 (-135) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.20K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Zach Thornton: K/9 8.7, proj 4.3K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.356 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 38.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 17.7%, L7 21.4%, season 22.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 (-123) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-123	-104	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-120	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.18K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 10.6, proj 5.7K over 4.5 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 25.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 44 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .795
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 17.1%, L7 21.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 31.8%/44 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 (-115) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	-111	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-105	-130	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.07K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Andrew Abbott: K/9 8.1, proj 4.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 34.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 124 PA | K% 15.3% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .189 | OPS .594
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 124 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.4%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 15.3%/124 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.26
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 24.1% vs season 18.5%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Noah Schultz Under 4.5 (-128) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+100	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.04K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Noah Schultz: K/9 8.2, proj 4.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.372 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 28.4%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Taj Bradley Under 6.5 (+100) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +100

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-128	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-115	-111	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-125	-110	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.05K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Taj Bradley: K/9 10.9, proj 6.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Cutter (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Cutter: 15.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .900
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 25.5%, L7 26.9%, season 25.0%, active roster 25.1%/6 hitters, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.59
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 6.5
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 32.8% vs season 27.8%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 103 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 (-158) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.2% / Under 57.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+134	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+124	-158	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 42.2% / under 57.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.04K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%
Emerson Hancock: K/9 8.1, proj 4.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Sweeper: 23.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.444
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 16.9%, L7 20.6%, season 18.9% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 17.5 (-167) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
DK	17.5	-167	+126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 19.675 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.69 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 96 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .236 | OPS .573
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.8%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, BVP 33.3%/96 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.9%, L7 9.6%, season 7.9%, BVP 3.1%/96 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Robert Gasser Under 17.5 (-125) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
DK	17.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-104	-130	-

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 15.520000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 80%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 8.3%, L7 9.9%, season 9.5% (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.25 | Season Avg 16.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/8 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.98 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.98 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Taj Bradley Over 17.5 (-170) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-170	+127	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 18.650999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 25.5%, L7 26.9%, season 25.0%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.6%, L7 6.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.9%/29 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 16.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Over 17.5 (-178) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -178

Selected market: Over 60.0% / Under 40.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	-
DK	17.5	-178	+134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-200	+146	-

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 18.33 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.53 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 60.0% / under 40.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 46 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .617
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 24.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 13.0%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.5%, L7 9.0%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.3%/46 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 17.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Under 17.5 (+123) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +123

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
DK	17.5	-164	+123	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-172	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 17.037000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.26 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 73 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .182 | OPS .563
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.3%, L7 19.3%, season 20.9%, BVP 28.8%/73 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 11.1%, L7 10.7%, season 10.6%, BVP 8.2%/73 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.90 | Season Avg 16.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (+114) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +114

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-151	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 17.386 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.77 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 94) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 170 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.5%/170 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.2%, L7 10.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 4.1%/170 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cade Cavalli Under 5.5 (-150) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 7.5%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.394
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 20.0%, L7 31.4%, season 24.1%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 (-123) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 10.3%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 124 PA | K% 15.3% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .189 | OPS .594
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 22.4%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.3%/124 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Emerson Hancock Under 5.5 (-145) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.09, BB% 6.2%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.14x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.444
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 16.9%, L7 20.6%, season 18.9% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Will Warren Over 5.5 (-111) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.23 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.56, BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .100 | OPS .282
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Over 5.5 (-141) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	-
DK	5.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.20 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.52, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .121 | OPS .463
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.1%, L7 20.9%, season 24.0%, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Over 5.5 (-128) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 9.1%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 46 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .617
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 24.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 13.0%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (+122) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +122 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.2 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 170 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.5%/170 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 20 play(s) (C 20)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (-105) diff 51.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.26775768396716 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .494
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 16.7%, L7 30.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 11.2%, L7 6.6%, season 9.8%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Zach Thornton Over 1.5 (+121) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.937714370314962 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 17.7%, L7 21.4%, season 22.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.6%, L7 11.6%, season 8.1% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/2 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (+133) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8722172253580522 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 40.2% / under 59.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 8.3%, L7 9.9%, season 9.5% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.75 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/8 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — German Marquez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8632569169533881 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .828
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.2%, L7 16.1%, season 19.6%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.9%, L7 7.1%, season 7.4%, BVP 9.5%/42 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.25 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/8 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Seth Lugo Over 1.5 (-113) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8478943191255377 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.15x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .121 | OPS .463
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.1%, L7 20.9%, season 24.0%, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.0%, split 12.5%, L7 10.9%, season 10.1%, BVP 9.6%/73 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 (-125) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8431817503775232 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.15x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 80 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .304 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.6%, L7 26.8%, season 25.1%, BVP 21.2%/80 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.0%, split 13.7%, L7 8.9%, season 9.8%, BVP 10.0%/80 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/8 over 1.5

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (-133) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8206077353439871 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 15.1%, season 21.8% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.5%, L7 11.2%, season 8.3% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Will Warren Over 1.5 (-119) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.74816794231558 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .100 | OPS .282
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 9.9%, L7 11.7%, season 8.9%, BVP 9.1%/22 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Cristian Javier Under 1.5 (+118) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +118 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2641121702865987 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 3.0 IP (BB% 10.1%)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 57 PA | K% 35.1% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .260 | OPS .811
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 24.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 35.1%/57 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 6.9%, L7 7.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 10.5%/57 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/5 under 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (-124) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.726332525576981 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 19.8%, L7 23.5%, season 23.2% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 8.7%, L7 8.6%, season 8.9% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/32 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Cade Cavalli Over 1.5 (-146) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.664786178783078 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.6 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 21 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.394
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 20.0%, L7 31.4%, season 24.1%, BVP 28.6%/21 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 14.1%, L7 5.5%, season 10.2%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Paul Skenes Under 1.5 (-129) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -129 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.345032899489084 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.2 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 73 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .182 | OPS .563
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.3%, L7 19.3%, season 20.9%, BVP 28.8%/73 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 11.1%, L7 10.7%, season 10.6%, BVP 8.2%/73 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Emmet Sheehan Under 1.5 (-105) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -105 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3481821820769104 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.3 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 44 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .795
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 17.1%, L7 21.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 31.8%/44 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 10.0%, L7 9.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/44 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Emerson Hancock Under 1.5 (-116) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -116 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3525829374259362 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.444
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 16.9%, L7 20.6%, season 18.9% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 9.6%, L7 4.5%, season 9.2% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — JT Ginn Over 2.5 (+104) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.68386658217472 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.4 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
DK books agree: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 14.6%, L7 5.7%, season 9.3% (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Dustin May Under 1.5 (-175) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3908327977876715 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.0 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 64 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .196 | OPS .708
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.9%, L7 25.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.2%/64 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.0%, L7 6.9%, season 7.9%, BVP 12.5%/64 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Trevor McDonald Over 1.5 (+103) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5637302518429017 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.4 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor McDonald: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .750
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.2%, L7 22.7%, season 22.9% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.1%, L7 10.0%, season 8.4% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Kevin Gausman Over 1.5 (-168) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5616297630981597 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 170 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.5%/170 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.2%, L7 10.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 4.1%/170 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Michael Lorenzen Under 1.5 (+128) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +128 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4442775679279198 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .366 | OPS .912
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.2%, L7 22.1%, season 20.7%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 6.5%, L7 9.9%, season 6.6%, BVP 4.3%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-151) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5528231946549715 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 60 PA | K% 38.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .138 | OPS .425
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.6%, L7 23.2%, season 23.0%, BVP 38.3%/60 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.7%, L7 9.7%, season 9.6%, BVP 3.3%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/14 (36%) | Season 5/14 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Over 2.5 (-134) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.53, ERA 4.31)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 46 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .617
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 24.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 13.0%/46 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-148) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -148 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.13 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.45, ERA 5.31)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .121 | OPS .463
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.1%, L7 20.9%, season 24.0%, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Under 2.5 (-127) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.85, ERA 4.05)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 80 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .304 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.6%, L7 26.8%, season 25.1%, BVP 21.2%/80 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.38 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 under 2.5

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Schultz Over 2.5 (+106) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.98 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.95, ERA 6.14)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.4% / under 54.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Schultz: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 28.4%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Dustin May Under 2.5 (-138) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.74 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.74, ERA 4.03)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 64 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .196 | OPS .708
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.9%, L7 25.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.2%/64 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Under 2.5 (-153) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.41 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 5.41)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Emmet Sheehan: 44 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .795
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 17.1%, L7 21.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 31.8%/44 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristian Javier Under 2.5 (-155) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.48 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.69, ERA 7.24)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 57 PA | K% 35.1% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .260 | OPS .811
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 24.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 35.1%/57 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 under 2.5

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Warren Under 2.5 (-107) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -107 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 4.97)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .100 | OPS .282
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — JT Ginn Under 2.5 (-120) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.87 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 3.06)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 28.7%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 (-134) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.16 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.77, ERA 5.10)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 170 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.5%/170 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — German Marquez Over 2.5 (+100) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.25 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.86, ERA 4.70)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Germán Márquez: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .828
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.2%, L7 16.1%, season 19.6%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.62 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 (-109) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.72 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 2.69, ERA 3.40)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 96 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .236 | OPS .573
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.8%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, BVP 33.3%/96 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Under 2.5 (-158) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.12 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 4.18)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 (-149) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -149 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.77, ERA 3.76)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 124 PA | K% 15.3% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .189 | OPS .594
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 22.4%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.3%/124 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Emerson Hancock Under 2.5 (-141) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 3.65)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.07x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.444
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 16.9%, L7 20.6%, season 18.9% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-152) Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.56 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 4.36)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 17.7%, L7 21.4%, season 22.0% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	70.2	66.8	79.0	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	68.0	60.3	78.0	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	65.7	68.0	68.0	5	Changeup (49% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	62.5	63.0	67.5	7	Sweeper (38% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	60.8	53.4	70.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 48% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	58.2	65.1	53.5	4	Slider (39% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	57.1	70.3	47.5	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 32.4%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	57.1	59.5	56.5	4	Cutter (41% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	56.3	60.1	54.5	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	56.1	62.8	51.0	5	Changeup (40% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	54.9	45.0	63.0	5	Cutter (28% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	54.1	57.2	53.0	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	54.0	66.6	43.0	5	Slider (52% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees	53.2	57.2	50.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	52.9	40.1	67.5	4	Slider (57% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 10.6%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	52.8	57.7	51.5	5	Slider (32% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	51.6	48.7	56.5	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	48.2	44.8	51.5	5	Slider (37% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	48.1	47.7	48.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	47.8	51.1	46.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	46.2	52.9	39.0	6	Curveball (48% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
JR Ritchie	Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	44.2	48.5	39.0	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	43.5	44.7	39.5	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals	42.8	42.2	43.5	5	Curveball (28% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	37.3	40.0	29.5	7	Changeup (32% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zach Thornton	New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox	35.6	44.2	29.5	5	Sweeper (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	34.7	36.5	30.0	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays	33.6	34.5	27.0	5	Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	33.4	48.8	10.0	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.395, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Athletics	33.2	43.3	21.5	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.372, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	22.5%	-	3.0	5.5	92	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 3.0 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 10.4%, recent_form_unavailable
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	R	19.7%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
JR Ritchie	Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	22.6%	3.8	5.1	5.0	64	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals	R	19.2%	6.0	5.9	6.0	101	deep	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	L	24.1%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	L	22.7%	5.0	5.0	5.1	84	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Athletics	L	20.6%	4.5	4.8	4.7	76	short	full	21.50	78.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	L	20.5%	5.2	5.3	5.3	87	normal	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	L	25.2%	5.8	5.0	6.0	97	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	R	15.5%	5.1	4.8	4.8	86	short	full	29.50	70.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	31.6%	5.3	5.9	6.0	89	normal	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	18.1%	2.3	3.1	4.4	39	short	full	10.00	90.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.3 IP/start
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	R	17.1%	4.8	5.6	5.4	80	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	R	26.1%	4.8	5.6	5.4	80	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	26.2%	3.7	4.8	4.6	62	short	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	15.9%	5.0	4.9	5.1	84	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	22.5%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	29.5%	6.0	5.6	6.0	101	deep	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zach Thornton	New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox	L	23.1%	5.0	5.2	5.5	84	short	full	29.50	70.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	R	20.5%	4.7	5.2	5.1	79	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	R	32.2%	5.9	6.2	6.2	99	normal	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	29.2%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	78.00	22.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	17.1%	4.8	5.0	5.1	80	short	full	27.00	73.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	R	17.4%	3.9	4.9	4.7	65	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.4%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	R	26.0%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	L	29.2%	5.1	4.5	5.1	86	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	L	26.5%	6.0	5.3	6.0	101	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	R	24.2%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees	R	26.8%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	20.6	3.1	17.8%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	normal	6.2	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	19.7	2.2	12.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min
Robert Gasser	Robert Gasser Under	Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.98 <= 3 min
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	18.7	1.1	6.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Over	Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Under	Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	17.0	-0.5	2.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	Blended market direction + consensus lean % across available books	Blended market agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 4 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Final Signals

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes