| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 400 | 57% | +1.66u | 72 | 57% | -1.10u | 184 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 350 | 59% | +18.18u | 78 | 64% | +8.30u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 317 | 60% | +4.36u | 114 | 60% | +2.01u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 230 | 58% | -14.06u | 85 | 55% | -10.24u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 102 | 45% | -14.13u | 11 | 45% | -1.60u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | 70.2 | 66.8 | 79.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | 68.0 | 60.3 | 78.0 | 7 | Changeup (38% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies | 65.7 | 68.0 | 68.0 | 5 | Changeup (49% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | 62.5 | 63.0 | 67.5 | 7 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | 60.8 | 53.4 | 70.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 48% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.2 | 65.1 | 53.5 | 4 | Slider (39% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | 57.1 | 70.3 | 47.5 | 5 | Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 32.4%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | 57.1 | 59.5 | 56.5 | 4 | Cutter (41% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | 56.3 | 60.1 | 54.5 | 3 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | 56.1 | 62.8 | 51.0 | 5 | Changeup (40% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.9 | 45.0 | 63.0 | 5 | Cutter (28% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | 54.1 | 57.2 | 53.0 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | 54.0 | 66.6 | 43.0 | 5 | Slider (52% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | 53.2 | 57.2 | 50.0 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 52.9 | 40.1 | 67.5 | 4 | Slider (57% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 10.6%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | 52.8 | 57.7 | 51.5 | 5 | Slider (32% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | 51.6 | 48.7 | 56.5 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | 48.2 | 44.8 | 51.5 | 5 | Slider (37% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | 48.1 | 47.7 | 48.0 | 5 | Changeup (26% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | 47.8 | 51.1 | 46.5 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians | 46.2 | 52.9 | 39.0 | 6 | Curveball (48% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| JR Ritchie | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | 44.2 | 48.5 | 39.0 | 6 | Curveball (36% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | 43.5 | 44.7 | 39.5 | 5 | Changeup (39% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals | 42.8 | 42.2 | 43.5 | 5 | Curveball (28% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | 37.3 | 40.0 | 29.5 | 7 | Changeup (32% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Zach Thornton | New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox | 35.6 | 44.2 | 29.5 | 5 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | 34.7 | 36.5 | 30.0 | 8 | Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Germán Márquez | San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays | 33.6 | 34.5 | 27.0 | 5 | Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cristian Javier | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | 33.4 | 48.8 | 10.0 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.395, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Schultz | Chicago White Sox vs Athletics | 33.2 | 43.3 | 21.5 | 5 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.372, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 22.5% | - | 3.0 | 5.5 | 92 | short | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | season leash 3.0 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 10.4%, recent_form_unavailable |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | R | 19.7% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| JR Ritchie | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 22.6% | 3.8 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 64 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.8 IP/start |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals | R | 19.2% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | L | 24.1% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 22.7% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 84 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Noah Schultz | Chicago White Sox vs Athletics | L | 20.6% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 76 | short | full | 21.50 | 78.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | L | 20.5% | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 87 | normal | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.0% |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | L | 25.2% | 5.8 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | R | 15.5% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 86 | short | full | 29.50 | 70.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 31.6% | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 89 | normal | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cristian Javier | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | R | 18.1% | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 39 | short | full | 10.00 | 90.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.3 IP/start |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 17.1% | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 80 | short | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | R | 26.1% | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 80 | short | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 26.2% | 3.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 62 | short | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 15.9% | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 84 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 22.5% | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 96 | normal | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 29.5% | 6.0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Zach Thornton | New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox | L | 23.1% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 29.50 | 70.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | R | 20.5% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 79 | short | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | R | 32.2% | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 99 | normal | full | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 29.2% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 78.00 | 22.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Germán Márquez | San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 17.1% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 80 | short | full | 27.00 | 73.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | R | 17.4% | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 65 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 22.4% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 89 | normal | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | R | 26.0% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | L | 29.2% | 5.1 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | L | 26.5% | 6.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | R | 24.2% | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | R | 26.8% | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 20.6 | 3.1 | 17.8% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | normal | 6.2 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 19.7 | 2.2 | 12.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min |
| Robert Gasser | Robert Gasser Under | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 15.5 | -2.0 | 11.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.98 <= 3 min |
| Taj Bradley | Taj Bradley Over | Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 18.7 | 1.1 | 6.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shane Baz | Shane Baz Over | Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 18.3 | 0.8 | 4.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Paul Skenes | Paul Skenes Under | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.5 | 2.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | Kevin Gausman Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | 0.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | ⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -163 | K Prop | Joey Cantillo Over | GUA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | 6.7 | -163 | DK Over 4.5 -163 | exact | 48.6% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | ⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch | K Prop | MacKenzie Gore Over | AST@RAN | 2:36 PM | 4.5 | 6.5 | -128 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 44.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | ⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch | K Prop | Dustin May Over | BRA@CAR | 2:16 PM | 4.5 | 6.0 | -127 | DK Over 4.5 -127 | exact | 34.4% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Tarik Skubal Over | PHI@TIG | 1:41 PM | 7.5 | 9.5 | -110 | DK Over 7.5 -110 | exact | 27.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | K Prop | Seth Lugo Under | ROY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 3.9 | -162 | DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact | 29.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Shane Baz Under | ROY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -127 | DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact | 21.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Outs | Zack Wheeler Over | PHI@TIG | 1:41 PM | 17.5 | 20.6 | -170 | DK Over 17.5 -170 | exact | 17.8% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Schultz Under | ATH@SOX | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -142 | DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact | 27.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Lorenzen Over | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.9 | -134 | DK Over 5.5 -134 | exact | 25.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Dustin May Under | BRA@CAR | 2:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -135 | DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@PIR | 12:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -124 | DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Joey Cantillo Over | GUA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.8 | -168 | DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact | 87.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Abbott Over | CUB@RED | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -187 | DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact | 64.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Noah Schultz Over | ATH@SOX | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -123 | DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact | 54.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Shane Baz Over | ROY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -118 | DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact | 45.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | MacKenzie Gore Over | AST@RAN | 2:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -124 | DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact | 40.9% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | JR Ritchie Over | BRA@CAR | 2:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -117 | DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact | 35.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-209); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Tarik Skubal Under | PHI@TIG | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -209 | DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact | 34.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | MacKenzie Gore Over | AST@RAN | 2:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.7 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 80.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor McDonald Over | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -156 | DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact | 66.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Phillips Over | GUA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -118 | DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-172); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Joey Cantillo Over | GUA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -172 | DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact | 53.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | JR Ritchie Over | BRA@CAR | 2:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -136 | DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact | 53.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Payton Tolle Over | SOX@MET | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -174 | DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Zack Wheeler Under | PHI@TIG | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.5 | -168 | DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Paul Skenes Over | BRE@PIR | 12:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -168 | DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Ian Seymour Over | MAR@RAY | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -142 | DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cade Cavalli Under | YAN@NAT | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -129 | DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Lorenzen Over | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -130 | DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | ANG@TWI | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 7.1 | +107 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price | 29.9% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 23.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | GUA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.3 | +115 | DK Over 3.5 +115 | exact | 23.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | JT Ginn Over | ATH@SOX | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -107 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price | 22.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Zack Wheeler Over | PHI@TIG | 1:41 PM | 7.5 | 9.0 | -124 | FanDuel Over 7.5 +102 | best price | 20.2% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Over | YAN@NAT | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -102 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 19.2% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Lorenzen Under | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | +111 | DK Under 3.5 +111 | exact | 14.9% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cristian Javier Under | AST@RAN | 2:36 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -131 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -125 | best price | 13.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Payton Tolle Under | SOX@MET | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -125 | BetOnline Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 12.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor McDonald Under | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -129 | BetOnline Under 4.5 -127 | best price | 11.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robert Gasser Over | BRE@PIR | 12:16 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -163 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 | best price | 10.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Over | JAY@PAD | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +105 | DK Over 5.5 +105 | exact | 10.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Over | BRE@PIR | 12:16 PM | 6.5 | 7.0 | -142 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -130 | best price | 8.1% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@RED | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -144 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -108 | best price | 7.9% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Will Warren Under | YAN@NAT | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -125 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -122 | best price | 5.3% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zach Thornton Under | SOX@MET | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -135 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price | 4.5% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan Over | DIA@DOD | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -123 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -102 | best price | 3.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Abbott Under | CUB@RED | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -115 | DK Under 4.5 -115 | exact | 1.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Schultz Under | ATH@SOX | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -128 | DK Under 4.5 -128 | exact | 0.9% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Taj Bradley Under | ANG@TWI | 2:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | +100 | DK Under 6.5 +100 | exact | 0.8% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Emerson Hancock Under | MAR@RAY | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -158 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -156 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.18 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tarik Skubal Over | PHI@TIG | 1:41 PM | 17.5 | 19.7 | -167 | DK Over 17.5 -167 | exact | 12.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.98 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@PIR | 12:16 PM | 17.5 | 15.5 | -125 | DK Under 17.5 -125 | exact | 11.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Taj Bradley Over | ANG@TWI | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.7 | -170 | DK Over 17.5 -170 | exact | 6.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shane Baz Over | ROY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 18.3 | -178 | DK Over 17.5 -178 | exact | 4.7% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Paul Skenes Under | BRE@PIR | 12:16 PM | 17.5 | 17.0 | +123 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price | 2.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kevin Gausman Under | JAY@PAD | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.4 | +114 | DK Under 17.5 +114 | exact | 0.7% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cade Cavalli Under | YAN@NAT | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -150 | DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Andrew Abbott Under | CUB@RED | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -123 | DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Emerson Hancock Under | MAR@RAY | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -145 | DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Will Warren Over | YAN@NAT | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -111 | DK Over 5.5 -111 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -141 | DK Over 5.5 -141 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Baz Over | ROY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -128 | DK Over 5.5 -128 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kevin Gausman Over | JAY@PAD | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +122 | DK Over 5.5 +122 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Tyler Phillips Over | GUA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -105 | DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact | 51.2% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Zach Thornton Over | SOX@MET | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +121 | DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact | 29.2% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Robert Gasser Over | BRE@PIR | 12:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +133 | DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact | 24.8% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | German Marquez Over | JAY@PAD | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +105 | DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact | 24.2% | ✓✓✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -113 | DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact | 23.2% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@RED | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -125 | DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact | 22.9% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Payton Tolle Over | SOX@MET | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -133 | DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact | 21.4% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Will Warren Over | YAN@NAT | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -119 | DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact | 16.5% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Cristian Javier Under | AST@RAN | 2:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | +118 | DK Under 1.5 +118 | exact | 15.7% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Ian Seymour Over | MAR@RAY | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -124 | DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact | 15.1% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cade Cavalli Over | YAN@NAT | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -146 | DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact | 11.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Paul Skenes Under | BRE@PIR | 12:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -129 | DK Under 1.5 -129 | exact | 10.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Emmet Sheehan Under | DIA@DOD | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -105 | DK Under 1.5 -105 | exact | 10.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Emerson Hancock Under | MAR@RAY | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -116 | DK Under 1.5 -116 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | JT Ginn Over | ATH@SOX | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +104 | DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Dustin May Under | BRA@CAR | 2:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -175 | DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Trevor McDonald Over | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +103 | DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact | 4.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Kevin Gausman Over | JAY@PAD | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -168 | DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact | 4.1% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Michael Lorenzen Under | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | +128 | DK Under 1.5 +128 | exact | 3.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Zack Wheeler Over | PHI@TIG | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -151 | DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact | 3.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Over | ROY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -134 | DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@ORI | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -148 | DK Over 2.5 -148 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Boyd Under | CUB@RED | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -127 | DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Schultz Over | ATH@SOX | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | +106 | DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Dustin May Under | BRA@CAR | 2:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -138 | DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Emmet Sheehan Under | DIA@DOD | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Cristian Javier Under | AST@RAN | 2:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -155 | DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Will Warren Under | YAN@NAT | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -107 | DK Under 2.5 -107 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | JT Ginn Under | ATH@SOX | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -120 | DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kevin Gausman Under | JAY@PAD | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -134 | DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | German Marquez Over | JAY@PAD | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +100 | DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tarik Skubal Over | PHI@TIG | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -109 | DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@PIR | 12:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -158 | DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Abbott Over | CUB@RED | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -149 | DK Over 2.5 -149 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Emerson Hancock Under | MAR@RAY | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -141 | DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Zach Thornton Under | SOX@MET | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -152 | DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ian Seymour Over | MAR@RAY | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -140 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price | 13.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script