MLB Bets 2026-07-10

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	225W–151L–0P	60%	+4.30 u	Last 14 days • 376 settled
Grade A	22W–14L–0P	61%	+2.14 u
Grade B	203W–137L–0P	60%	+2.15 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	1994W–1426L–8P	58%	-138.81 u	All-time • 3428 settled
Grade A	205W–148L–0P	58%	+4.77 u
Grade B	1789W–1278L–8P	58%	-143.58 u

34 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	K Prop	Cal Quantrill	3.5	-176	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	K Prop	Hunter Greene	6.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	K Prop	Shane Bieber	4.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	K Prop	Shota Imanaga	5.5	-109	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Cal Quantrill	2.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Eduardo Rodriguez	3.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Earned Run	JP Sears	1.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Jack Flaherty	2.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hunter Brown	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Hits Allow	Robbie Ray	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Hits Allow	Shota Imanaga	5.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Hits Allow	Tanner Gordon	5.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Outs	Hunter Brown	17.5	105	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Young	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Walks	Jack Flaherty	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-10	Pitcher Walks	Sandy Alcantara	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-09	K Prop	Logan Henderson	4.5	-118	-	LOSS	-1.000	Logan Henderson: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-09	K Prop	Bryce Miller	5.5	-139	-	LOSS	-1.000	Bryce Miller: 3.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	388	57%	+1.71u	71	62%	+5.30u	179	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	342	59%	+15.63u	80	65%	+9.39u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	304	59%	+0.75u	110	58%	-0.81u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	217	58%	-15.96u	76	54%	-11.22u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	100	45%	-14.02u	12	42%	-2.77u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 388, 14d N 71	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 13 total candidate(s); season N 342, 14d N 80	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 13 total candidate(s); season N 100, 14d N 12	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 742 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 309 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 212 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 720 pitcher(s), 3153 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 549 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1418 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, Athletics, Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Cleveland Guardians, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City Royals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 296 market side(s) checked \| 296 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 594 \| batter bats 398 \| batter hand splits 151 \| pitcher HR splits 62 \| batter pitch-type 549 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+104	-125	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+104	-126	+1.5 (-197)	-1.5 (+161)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-163	+135	-1.5 (-103)	+1.5 (-117)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 10.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	-118	-102	-1.5 (+140)	+1.5 (-170)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	-102	-119	-1.5 (+173)	+1.5 (-212)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	+102	-123	-1.5 (+169)	+1.5 (-206)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-182)	-1.5 (+150)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+141	-171	+1.5 (-144)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-144)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	-168	+139	-1.5 (+104)	+1.5 (-125)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-101	-120	-1.5 (+160)	+1.5 (-195)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+214	-266	+1.5 (-101)	-1.5 (-120)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	+139	-168	+1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

0 Grade A | 10 Grade B | 74 Review-Only | 0 Pass | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Hunter Brown Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.83

Pitcher Earned Runs - Parker Messick Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

No Grade A plays today.

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (10 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Hunter Greene Under 6.5 (-120) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -120

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	-110	-118	-
BetRivers	6.5	-103	-130	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	-
DK	6.5	-106	-120	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	-

Checks: ✓✓!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 43.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -2.85K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Hunter Greene: K/9 8.9, proj 3.6K over 3.3 IP (season 3.3 IP/GS; elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.458 | top pitch: Slider (58% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 133 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .168 | OPS .695
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 133 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.8%, L7 18.8%, season 21.2%, active roster 20.5%/8 hitters, BVP 21.1%/133 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 0/1 (0%) | L10 0/1 (0%) | L20 0/1 (0%) | Season 0/1 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 0/1 under 6.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note Pitcher Outs — Hunter Brown Under 17.5 (+105) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+115	-
DK	17.5	-139	+105	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Checks: ✓✓!!–! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)

Proj 13.824 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 21.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS, weight 60%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 4.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 80)
Outs projection components: baseline 4.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 80
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 94 PA | K% 25.5% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .221 | OPS .637
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.9%, L7 19.8%, season 22.3%, BVP 25.5%/94 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 6.9%, L7 8.0%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.4%/94 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 4.9 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.67 | Season Avg 14.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/6 under 17.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Robbie Ray Under 5.5 (-134) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 3.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 30.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.64 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 11.0%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 75 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .837
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 25.5%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 28.0%/75 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hunter Brown Under 5.5 (-153) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✓!!–! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 10.2%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 94 PA | K% 25.5% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .221 | OPS .637
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.9%, L7 19.8%, season 22.3%, BVP 25.5%/94 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.83 | Season Avg 3.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/6 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Gordon Over 5.5 (-126) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-110	-

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 6.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.31 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.59, BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 52 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .319 | OPS 1.065
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.4%, L7 23.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 19.2%/52 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Brandon Young Over 1.5 (-121) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1610458612657553 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.0%, L7 23.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.7%, L7 8.3%, season 8.6% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/14 (79%) | Season 11/14 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Jack Flaherty Over 1.5 (-165) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-165	+124	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	Recommended

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.093999315807851 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 4.4 IP (BB% 10.6%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Flaherty: 109 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .179 | OPS .590
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.3%, L7 23.1%, season 23.4%, BVP 30.3%/109 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 8.9%, L7 9.5%, season 7.9%, BVP 11.9%/109 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Sandy Alcantara Over 1.5 (-138) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	-

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.967687214641892 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 6.3 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.7 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.16x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 47 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .220 | OPS .685
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 16.9%, L7 28.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 34.0%/47 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 11.3%, L7 11.0%, season 9.9%, BVP 12.8%/47 PA (adj 1.16x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 3.5 (-155) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-155	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.6 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 25.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.83 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.50, ERA 2.02)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 109)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 171 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .316 | OPS .914
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.2%, L7 17.9%, season 20.2%, BVP 19.9%/171 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/18 (83%) | Season 15/18 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Cal Quantrill Under 2.5 (-143) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	-
DK	2.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓!!–! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.63 over 3.7 IP (xFIP 4.78, ERA 3.74)
Workload blend: 3.7 IP (HIGH; season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 103 PA | K% 9.7% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .297 | OPS .917
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.5%, L7 22.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 9.7%/103 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/18 (89%) | Season 16/18 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

▼ Review-Only / Do-Not-Bet Signals (74 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 26 play(s) (B 5 | C 21)

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 3.5 (-150) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+117	-
BetRivers	3.5	-159	+120	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-150	+117	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 24.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 56.6% / under 43.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.87K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Kyle Leahy: K/9 8.0, proj 4.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 21.7% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.359 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .450
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.8%, L7 24.3%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.1%/7 hitters, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.29
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 23.9% vs season 19.3%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Tanner Gordon Over 3.5 (-168) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -168

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-169	+130	-
BetRivers	3.5	-159	+118	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-168	+131	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-158	+124	Recommended
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.34K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Tanner Gordon: K/9 8.5, proj 3.8K over 4.8 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 52 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .319 | OPS 1.065
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.4%, L7 23.8%, season 20.8%, active roster 18.2%/6 hitters, BVP 19.2%/52 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.18
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Sean Burke Over 5.5 (-160) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	5.5	-167	+128	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
DK	5.5	-160	+125	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-150	+118	Recommended
BetRivers	6.5	+123	-165	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.43K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Sean Burke: K/9 10.6, proj 5.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 39 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.051
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 19.9%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.1%/39 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 5.89
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.11 vs season
K% trend: support +6.7 ppts (recent 32.5% vs season 25.8%, proj adj +3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Nolan McLean Over 6.5 (-128) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -128

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 6.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-135	+104	-
BetRivers	6.5	-127	-105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
DK	6.5	-128	+101	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-130	+102	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.48K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Nolan McLean: K/9 10.7, proj 7.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.7%, L7 21.9%, season 22.0% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.56
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Sonny Gray Over 5.5 (-126) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+100	-
BetRivers	5.5	-137	+104	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.00K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Sonny Gray: K/9 9.0, proj 5.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 98 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .286 | OPS .908
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 98 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.7%, L7 16.0%, season 21.9%, active roster 18.8%/6 hitters, BVP 20.4%/98 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.58 vs season
K% trend: support +7.4 ppts (recent 30.2% vs season 22.8%, proj adj +3.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 (-115) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-119	-109	-
BetRivers	5.5	-113	-118	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-115	-111	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-115	-111	-

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 24.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.35K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Shota Imanaga: K/9 8.9, proj 6.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.9% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 67 PA | K% 28.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .620
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 21.8%, L7 28.0%, season 25.1%, active roster 23.3%/6 hitters, BVP 28.4%/67 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.56
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 132 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Shane Bieber Under 4.5 (-142) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
BetRivers	4.5	+112	-150	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 21.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.96K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Shane Bieber: K/9 7.6, proj 3.5K over 4.6 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/3 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 11.7% | xwOBA 0.502 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 50 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .312 | OPS .923
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.0%, L7 26.2%, season 22.9%, BVP 10.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Robbie Ray Over 5.5 (-112) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	5.5	-118	-113	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-112	-114	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 18.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.99K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Robbie Ray: K/9 7.1, proj 6.5K over 6.1 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 34.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 75 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .837
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 75 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 25.5%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, active roster 22.0%/7 hitters, BVP 28.0%/75 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.78
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 (-127) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-110	-118	-
BetRivers	4.5	-107	-124	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-101	-127	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	RecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✓!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 47.3% / under 52.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.79K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 8.6, proj 3.7K over 4.2 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.400 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 35.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .286 | OPS .873
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.6%, L7 27.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — JP Sears Over 3.5 (-124) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-122	-106	-
BetRivers	3.5	-118	-113	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-124	-103	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 16.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.2% / under 47.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.57K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
JP Sears: K/9 8.6, proj 4.1K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/3 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.368 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs JP Sears: 64 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .328 | OPS .925
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.8%, L7 16.3%, season 19.7%, BVP 14.1%/64 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.67 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Luis Castillo Under 4.5 (-116) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 4.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 4.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	-103	-125	-
BetRivers	4.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-110	-116	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.66K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Luis Castillo: K/9 8.0, proj 3.8K over 5.3 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 19.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 64 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .230 | OPS .757
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.0%, L7 23.6%, season 19.0%, BVP 20.3%/64 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.53
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 (+108) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 +123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 6.5 +123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	6.5	+110	-143	-
BetRivers	6.5	+123	-165	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+118	-150	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.94K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%
Shohei Ohtani: K/9 10.0, proj 7.4K over 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.2% | put-away% 26.3% | xwOBA 0.257 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Curveball: 21.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shohei Ohtani: 53 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .591
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 17.0%, L7 20.4%, season 19.5%, active roster 17.1%/6 hitters, BVP 28.3%/53 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.79
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Brandon Young Over 4.5 (+103) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+102	-132	-
BetRivers	4.5	+102	-137	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	+103	-132	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 46.4% / under 53.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.63K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Brandon Young: K/9 7.5, proj 5.1K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 32.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.0%, L7 23.4%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.4%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.43
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Nick Martinez Under 4.5 (-155) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 4.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 4.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	4.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+121	-155	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.56K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Nick Martinez: K/9 5.7, proj 3.9K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.0% | put-away% 15.6% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 49 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .364 | OPS .997
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 18.6%, L7 26.7%, season 23.2%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.59
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 (+123) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	6.5	+117	-152	-
BetRivers	6.5	+110	-148	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+123	-157	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+116	-148	-

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.80K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 10.6, proj 7.3K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.2% | put-away% 25.4% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.2%, L7 19.1%, season 20.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 6.78
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
K% trend: support +3.0 ppts (recent 30.8% vs season 27.8%, proj adj +1.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 (+119) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
BetRivers	5.5	+128	-175	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+119	-152	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.2% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.67K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.3, proj 6.2K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 23.3% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Sweeper (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 38 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 2.6% | AVG .229 | OPS .549
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 25.2%, L7 17.1%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.0%/6 hitters, BVP 21.1%/38 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.12
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 4.5 (-157) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	4.5	+120	-162	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+123	-157	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	Recommended

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.53K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 5.9, proj 4.0K over 5.8 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.343 | top pitch: Changeup (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 171 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .316 | OPS .914
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 171 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.2%, L7 17.9%, season 20.2%, BVP 19.9%/171 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.11
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 (-102) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-103	-125	-
BetRivers	5.5	-106	-127	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-130	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 10.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.58K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Zebby Matthews: K/9 7.6, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 42.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .545 | OPS 1.364
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 25.9%, L7 28.9%, season 25.1%, active roster 25.3%/6 hitters (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Aaron Nola Over 5.5 (-101) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-106	-122	-
BetRivers	5.5	-106	-127	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-101	-127	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	-

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 47.3% / under 52.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.54K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Aaron Nola: K/9 9.2, proj 6.0K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Curveball: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 55 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .192 | OPS .659
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.8%, L7 25.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.4%/55 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Parker Messick Over 5.5 (-105) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	+104	-135	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	-105	-129	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-105	-121	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.49K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Parker Messick: K/9 9.3, proj 6.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 15.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 6.06
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 (-136) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-132	+102	-
BetRivers	5.5	-129	-103	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-136	+107	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	Recommended
BetMGM	6.5	+120	-160	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.44K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Jack Flaherty: K/9 10.8, proj 5.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.7% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Flaherty: 109 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .179 | OPS .590
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 109 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.3%, L7 23.1%, season 23.4%, active roster 22.5%/7 hitters, BVP 30.3%/109 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 (-109) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-103	-125	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	-118	-113	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-109	-117	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 6.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.35K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 7.0, proj 5.9K over 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.7 outs/6.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 25.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 47 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .220 | OPS .685
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 16.9%, L7 28.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 34.0%/47 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.84
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Hunter Brown Under 5.5 (-110) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -110

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+150	-220	-
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+101	-
BetRivers	5.5	-134	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-116	-110	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.32K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Hunter Brown: K/9 9.4, proj 5.2K over 5.1 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 23.6% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Curveball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 23.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 94 PA | K% 25.5% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .221 | OPS .637
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 94 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.9%, L7 19.8%, season 22.3%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 25.5%/94 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.83 | Season Avg 5.83
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 103 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Brandon Sproat Under 5.5 (-146) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+260	-450	-
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
BetRivers	5.5	+120	-159	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	-
DK	5.5	+115	-146	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+132	-170	-

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.32K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Brandon Sproat: K/9 10.1, proj 5.2K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Curveball: 37.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.8%, L7 20.5%, season 23.8% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
K% trend: support +6.2 ppts (recent 31.2% vs season 25.0%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Luinder Avila Under 4.5 (-160) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 4.5 -148; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	4.5	+112	-148	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+125	-160	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	Recommended

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.18K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Luinder Avila: K/9 8.3, proj 4.3K over 4.5 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 28.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.0%, L7 21.4%, season 24.0% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/17 (82%) | Season 14/17 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.76
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Chris Sale Under 6.5 (-145) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 6.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.21 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 6.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	6.5	+112	-145	Recommended
BetRivers	6.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+114	-145	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+118	-150	-

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.12K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.21 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Chris Sale: K/9 10.7, proj 6.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.6% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 25.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .200
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 15.3%, L7 23.0%, season 20.3%, active roster 18.4%/6 hitters (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.40 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Luis Castillo Under 17.5 (-124) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
DK	17.5	-107	-124	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-106	-128	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-110	-130	-

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 14.558 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 16.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.39 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 64 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .230 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.0%, L7 23.6%, season 19.0%, BVP 20.3%/64 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.7%, L7 6.9%, season 9.4%, BVP 4.7%/64 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.50 | Season Avg 14.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.94 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.94 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Ryan Weathers Under 17.5 (-134) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
DK	17.5	+101	-134	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	+104	-140	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 15.632000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.39 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 72)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 72
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 38 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 2.6% | AVG .229 | OPS .549
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 25.2%, L7 17.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.1%/38 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.6%, L7 14.0%, season 8.9%, BVP 2.6%/38 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.10 | Season Avg 16.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.87 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.87 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-148) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
DK	17.5	-148	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+116	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 19.137999999999995 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.57 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 98 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .286 | OPS .908
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.7%, L7 16.0%, season 21.9%, BVP 20.4%/98 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.1%, L7 9.8%, season 8.2%, BVP 10.2%/98 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 16.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Shohei Ohtani Over 18.5 (+132) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+135	-185	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+135	-175	-
DK	18.5	+132	-176	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+146	-198	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	18.5	+130	-185	-

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

Proj 20.226 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 9.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.26 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Shohei Ohtani: 53 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .591
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 17.0%, L7 20.4%, season 19.5%, BVP 28.3%/53 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 9.7%, L7 7.3%, season 8.4%, BVP 7.5%/53 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/14 (21%) | Season 3/14 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 18.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Zebby Matthews Over 17.5 (-167) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+130	-
DK	17.5	-167	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	RecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✓––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 19.051 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.26 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .545 | OPS 1.364
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 25.9%, L7 28.9%, season 25.1% (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.5%, L7 5.1%, season 8.5% (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 18.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 (+108) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 18.7 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books | 19.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+105	-145	-
DK	18.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	18.5	-102	-132	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+100	-140	-
BetMGM	19.5	-110	-120	-

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (22)

Proj 20.071 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 8.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 18.7 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 112, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 112
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 47 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .220 | OPS .685
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 16.9%, L7 28.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 34.0%/47 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 11.3%, L7 11.0%, season 9.9%, BVP 12.8%/47 PA (adj 1.16x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.80 | Season Avg 19.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Under 17.5 (+111) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-145	+105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 16.018 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 94
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.0%, L7 23.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.7%, L7 8.3%, season 8.6% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 16.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 (-114) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-112	-122	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

Proj 16.093 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.90 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.8 outs (short leash, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 67 PA | K% 28.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .620
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 21.8%, L7 28.0%, season 25.1%, BVP 28.4%/67 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.6%, split 14.0%, L7 10.7%, season 9.9%, BVP 10.4%/67 PA (adj 1.19x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 17.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Robbie Ray Under 18.5 (-162) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+130	-175	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+125	-165	-
DK	18.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	18.5	+130	-178	-

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 17.273999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 6.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.3 IP (xFIP 4.82 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 112)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality -0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 112
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 75 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .837
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 25.5%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 28.0%/75 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.7%, L7 10.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 5.3%/75 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.7 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 18.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 17.5 (-127) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-127	-104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Checks: ✓✗✓––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 18.395 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.45 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 15.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 9.4%, L7 12.0%, season 9.1% (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 17.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-174) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.6% / Under 40.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-210	+150	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-174	+132	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-192	+140	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	-

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 18.278 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 59.6% / under 40.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.7%, L7 21.9%, season 22.0% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 7.0%, L7 10.6%, season 8.0% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Nick Martinez Under 17.5 (-119) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-112	-119	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-106	-128	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 17.02 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 49 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .364 | OPS .997
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 18.6%, L7 26.7%, season 23.2%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 8.9%, L7 9.2%, season 9.0%, BVP 10.2%/49 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Parker Messick Under 5.5 (-154) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.79 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.12, BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 104)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 15.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-105) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100	-

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.77 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.15, BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 109)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 171 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .316 | OPS .914
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.2%, L7 17.9%, season 20.2%, BVP 19.9%/171 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 (-103) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-130	-

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 6.3 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 6.4%)
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.7 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 47 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .220 | OPS .685
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 16.9%, L7 28.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 34.0%/47 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Luis Castillo Under 5.5 (-135) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 64 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .230 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.0%, L7 23.6%, season 19.0%, BVP 20.3%/64 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Under 5.5 (-130) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-130	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.09, BB% 4.4%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 49 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .364 | OPS .997
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 18.6%, L7 26.7%, season 23.2%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Bieber Over 5.5 (-105) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.31 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.70, BB% 8.9%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 93)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 50 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .312 | OPS .923
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.0%, L7 26.2%, season 22.9%, BVP 10.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.67 | Season Avg 6.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/3 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Young Under 5.5 (-110) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 8.9%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.0%, L7 23.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 (-123) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 6.9%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .545 | OPS 1.364
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 25.9%, L7 28.9%, season 25.1% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Aaron Nola Over 5.5 (-113) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-113	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.47, BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 55 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .192 | OPS .659
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.8%, L7 25.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.4%/55 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Weathers Under 5.5 (-134) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 7.0%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 38 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 2.6% | AVG .229 | OPS .549
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 25.2%, L7 17.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.1%/38 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-105) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	-

Checks: ✓✓✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9739615418461693 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.7 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 104)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 15.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 9.4%, L7 12.0%, season 9.1% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Hunter Greene Under 2.5 (-190) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	-

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1636458218050314 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.3 IP/GS; assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 38.7% / under 61.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 133 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .168 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.8%, L7 18.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 21.1%/133 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 11.6%, L7 8.5%, season 11.1%, BVP 12.0%/133 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 0/1 (0%) | L10 0/1 (0%) | L20 0/1 (0%) | Season 0/1 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 0/1 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Shota Imanaga Over 1.5 (-111) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.661725436409964 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.19x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 67 PA | K% 28.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .620
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 21.8%, L7 28.0%, season 25.1%, BVP 28.4%/67 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.6%, split 14.0%, L7 10.7%, season 9.9%, BVP 10.4%/67 PA (adj 1.19x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Luinder Avila Over 2.5 (-119) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	-120	-115	-

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.663145567289877 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.51 over 4.3 IP (BB% 11.9%)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.21x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.0%, L7 21.4%, season 24.0% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 12.0%, split 12.4%, L7 13.4%, season 10.2% (adj 1.21x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Ryan Weathers Over 1.5 (-168) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-168	+126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5941093815523995 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 38 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 2.6% | AVG .229 | OPS .549
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 25.2%, L7 17.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.1%/38 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.6%, L7 14.0%, season 8.9%, BVP 2.6%/38 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Aaron Nola Over 1.5 (-136) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-136	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5685256477630072 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 55 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .192 | OPS .659
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.8%, L7 25.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.4%/55 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.5%, L7 9.3%, season 9.6%, BVP 5.5%/55 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 20 play(s) (C 20)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Bieber Over 2.5 (-108) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.16 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.46, ERA 6.62)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 93)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 50 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .312 | OPS .923
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.0%, L7 26.2%, season 22.9%, BVP 10.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.33 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Flaherty Under 2.5 (-143) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.21 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 3.66)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Flaherty: 109 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .179 | OPS .590
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.3%, L7 23.1%, season 23.4%, BVP 30.3%/109 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Shota Imanaga Under 2.5 (-115) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-115	-115	Selected

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.76 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 3.89)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 67 PA | K% 28.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .620
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 21.8%, L7 28.0%, season 25.1%, BVP 28.4%/67 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Greene Over 2.5 (-119) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-119	-111	Selected

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.26 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.19, ERA 4.97)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.3 IP/GS; assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 133 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .168 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.8%, L7 18.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 21.1%/133 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.00 | Season Avg 8.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/1 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Parker Messick Under 2.5 (-174) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommended

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.13 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.45, ERA 3.20)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 104)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 15.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Burke Under 2.5 (-154) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+115	-154	Selected

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.62 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 3.31)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.4% / under 56.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 39 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.051
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 19.9%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.1%/39 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Brown Under 2.5 (-139) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	-
DK	2.5	+104	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!!!–! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.87 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 4.01)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.7% / under 54.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 94 PA | K% 25.5% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .221 | OPS .637
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 21.9%, L7 19.8%, season 22.3%, BVP 25.5%/94 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.83 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/6 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-117) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	-
DK	2.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.45 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 4.53)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .545 | OPS 1.364
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 25.9%, L7 28.9%, season 25.1% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-130) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+100	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.62 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.26, ERA 2.41)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Shohei Ohtani: 53 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .591
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 17.0%, L7 20.4%, season 19.5%, BVP 28.3%/53 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/14 (36%) | Season 5/14 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 (-110) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.39, ERA 4.85)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 38 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 2.6% | AVG .229 | OPS .549
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 25.2%, L7 17.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.1%/38 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Luinder Avila Under 2.5 (-101) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.55 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 4.15)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.0%, L7 21.4%, season 24.0% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Over 2.5 (+110) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.82, ERA 3.00)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 75 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .837
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 25.5%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 28.0%/75 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Gordon Over 2.5 (-125) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+105	-
DK	2.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.30 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 6.64)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 52 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .319 | OPS 1.065
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.4%, L7 23.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 19.2%/52 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — JP Sears Over 2.5 (+125) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.86 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.28, ERA 4.59)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs JP Sears: 64 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .328 | OPS .925
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.8%, L7 16.3%, season 19.7%, BVP 14.1%/64 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.67 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/3 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Aaron Nola Over 2.5 (-128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.69 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 5.93)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 55 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .192 | OPS .659
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.8%, L7 25.2%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.4%/55 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (+103) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+103	-136	Selected

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 6.3 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 3.73)
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.7 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 47 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .220 | OPS .685
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 16.9%, L7 28.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 34.0%/47 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Over 2.5 (-103) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-103	-128	Selected

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.16 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.60, ERA 2.92)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 49 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .364 | OPS .997
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 18.6%, L7 26.7%, season 23.2%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/17 (24%) | Season 4/17 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Luis Castillo Over 2.5 (-109) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	-
DK	2.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.48 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 4.31)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 64 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .230 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.0%, L7 23.6%, season 19.0%, BVP 20.3%/64 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-109) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-109	-122	Selected

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.82 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 6.01)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .286 | OPS .873
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.6%, L7 27.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.83 | Season Avg 3.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Young Under 2.5 (+109) Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+105	-
DK	2.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 3.34)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.0%, L7 23.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	72.4	72.5	79.0	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 26.3%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	64.0	63.6	68.5	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 25.4%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	61.1	63.0	63.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	59.1	54.6	67.5	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	59.0	62.0	58.5	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	58.7	55.5	63.5	5	Curveball (27% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox	57.4	56.8	63.5	7	Curveball (40% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Athletics	53.8	51.9	57.5	6	Slider (33% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees	52.3	42.3	58.5	4	Sweeper (37% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	51.9	63.2	42.0	5	Sweeper (45% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	51.3	55.1	47.0	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	51.3	47.7	58.0	6	Sweeper (39% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	50.9	52.5	48.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	50.4	44.0	56.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	47.5	52.9	42.0	6	Curveball (35% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	47.0	36.4	51.5	5	Cutter (24% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	47.0	48.9	44.0	5	Changeup (35% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals	46.2	47.3	46.5	5	Slider (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	46.2	51.4	43.0	5	Slider (35% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	46.0	48.6	44.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	45.8	49.9	38.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	45.5	46.1	43.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays	39.3	54.2	23.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.368, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	38.2	37.5	38.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	37.2	35.3	41.0	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	37.0	46.0	28.0	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	36.4	39.0	36.0	5	Changeup (22% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	32.3	59.0	0.0	3	Slider (58% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.458, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	27.8	42.8	7.5	4	Slider (33% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.400, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	19.8	40.9	0.0	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 11.7%, xwOBA 0.502, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	16.2%	5.7	6.0	5.9	96	normal	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	L	17.4%	3.5	4.5	4.3	59	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	27.4%	5.3	5.9	6.0	89	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals	R	19.3%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	R	25.4%	6.6	5.6	6.0	111	deep	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	L	24.2%	5.1	5.7	5.6	86	short	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Athletics	R	28.1%	5.7	5.3	5.3	96	normal	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	R	23.0%	-	3.3	5.5	92	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 3.3 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 11.1%, recent_form_unavailable
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	L	25.2%	5.9	5.9	6.0	99	normal	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	R	20.9%	4.8	4.5	5.2	80	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	27.1%	4.6	4.5	4.5	77	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	24.3%	4.8	4.9	5.2	80	short	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	R	21.8%	4.8	4.2	4.5	80	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	R	20.9%	4.1	4.3	4.7	69	short	full	7.50	92.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	27.5%	6.0	6.1	6.1	101	deep	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	18.4%	6.7	6.5	6.5	112	deep	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	27.2%	4.9	4.8	4.8	82	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	20.5%	6.0	6.1	6.1	101	deep	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox	R	28.4%	5.8	5.6	6.0	97	normal	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	L	26.2%	4.3	5.4	5.2	72	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	R	22.8%	5.1	5.1	5.1	86	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	28.8%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.5%
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	21.7%	4.8	5.1	5.4	80	short	full	23.50	76.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	L	19.5%	6.7	5.6	5.8	112	deep	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	20.1%	5.3	5.1	5.1	89	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	R	20.9%	5.4	5.1	5.1	91	normal	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	R	15.4%	5.7	5.9	5.8	96	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	R	17.9%	3.0	3.7	4.7	50	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.0 IP/start
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	R	18.7%	4.1	4.3	5.1	69	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees	L	23.5%	1.5	2.2	4.3	25	short	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

13/13 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Hunter Brown	Hunter Brown Under	Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers	17.5	13.8	-3.7	21.0%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.2	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Luis Castillo	Luis Castillo Under	Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	14.6	-2.9	16.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.1	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.94 <= 3 min
Ryan Weathers	Ryan Weathers Under	New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals	17.5	15.6	-1.9	10.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.2	72	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.87 <= 3 min
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shohei Ohtani	Shohei Ohtani Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	20.2	1.7	9.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	19.1	1.6	8.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	112	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.0	-1.5	8.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	16.1	-1.4	8.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.6	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Robbie Ray	Robbie Ray Under	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	18.5	17.3	-1.2	6.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	112	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nick Martinez	Nick Martinez Under	Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	17.0	-0.5	2.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	Blended market direction + consensus lean % across available books	Blended market agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Final Signals

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes