MLB Full Audit Friday, July 10 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	388	57%	+1.71u	71	62%	+5.30u	179	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	342	59%	+15.63u	80	65%	+9.39u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	304	59%	+0.75u	110	58%	-0.81u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	217	58%	-15.96u	76	54%	-11.22u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	100	45%	-14.02u	12	42%	-2.77u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	72.4	72.5	79.0	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 26.3%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	64.0	63.6	68.5	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 25.4%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	61.1	63.0	63.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	59.1	54.6	67.5	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	59.0	62.0	58.5	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	58.7	55.5	63.5	5	Curveball (27% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox	57.4	56.8	63.5	7	Curveball (40% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Athletics	53.8	51.9	57.5	6	Slider (33% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees	52.3	42.3	58.5	4	Sweeper (37% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	51.9	63.2	42.0	5	Sweeper (45% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	51.3	55.1	47.0	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	51.3	47.7	58.0	6	Sweeper (39% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	50.9	52.5	48.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	50.4	44.0	56.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	47.5	52.9	42.0	6	Curveball (35% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	47.0	36.4	51.5	5	Cutter (24% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	47.0	48.9	44.0	5	Changeup (35% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals	46.2	47.3	46.5	5	Slider (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	46.2	51.4	43.0	5	Slider (35% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	46.0	48.6	44.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	45.8	49.9	38.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	45.5	46.1	43.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays	39.3	54.2	23.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.368, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	38.2	37.5	38.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	37.2	35.3	41.0	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	37.0	46.0	28.0	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	36.4	39.0	36.0	5	Changeup (22% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	32.3	59.0	0.0	3	Slider (58% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.458, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	27.8	42.8	7.5	4	Slider (33% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.400, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	19.8	40.9	0.0	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 11.7%, xwOBA 0.502, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	16.2%	5.7	6.0	5.9	96	normal	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	L	17.4%	3.5	4.5	4.3	59	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	27.4%	5.3	5.9	6.0	89	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals	R	19.3%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	R	25.4%	6.6	5.6	6.0	111	deep	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	L	24.2%	5.1	5.7	5.6	86	short	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Athletics	R	28.1%	5.7	5.3	5.3	96	normal	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	R	23.0%	-	3.3	5.5	92	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 3.3 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 11.1%, recent_form_unavailable
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	L	25.2%	5.9	5.9	6.0	99	normal	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	R	20.9%	4.8	4.5	5.2	80	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	27.1%	4.6	4.5	4.5	77	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	24.3%	4.8	4.9	5.2	80	short	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	R	21.8%	4.8	4.2	4.5	80	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	R	20.9%	4.1	4.3	4.7	69	short	full	7.50	92.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	27.5%	6.0	6.1	6.1	101	deep	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	18.4%	6.7	6.5	6.5	112	deep	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	27.2%	4.9	4.8	4.8	82	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	20.5%	6.0	6.1	6.1	101	deep	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox	R	28.4%	5.8	5.6	6.0	97	normal	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	L	26.2%	4.3	5.4	5.2	72	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	R	22.8%	5.1	5.1	5.1	86	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	28.8%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.5%
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	21.7%	4.8	5.1	5.4	80	short	full	23.50	76.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	L	19.5%	6.7	5.6	5.8	112	deep	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	20.1%	5.3	5.1	5.1	89	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	R	20.9%	5.4	5.1	5.1	91	normal	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	R	15.4%	5.7	5.9	5.8	96	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	R	17.9%	3.0	3.7	4.7	50	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.0 IP/start
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	R	18.7%	4.1	4.3	5.1	69	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees	L	23.5%	1.5	2.2	4.3	25	short	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

13/13 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Hunter Brown	Hunter Brown Under	Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers	17.5	13.8	-3.7	21.0%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.2	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Luis Castillo	Luis Castillo Under	Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	14.6	-2.9	16.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.1	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.94 <= 3 min
Ryan Weathers	Ryan Weathers Under	New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals	17.5	15.6	-1.9	10.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.2	72	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.87 <= 3 min
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shohei Ohtani	Shohei Ohtani Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	20.2	1.7	9.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	19.1	1.6	8.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	112	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.0	-1.5	8.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	16.1	-1.4	8.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.6	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Robbie Ray	Robbie Ray Under	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	18.5	17.3	-1.2	6.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	112	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nick Martinez	Nick Martinez Under	Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	17.0	-0.5	2.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

84 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► GOOD ADDS
B	🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration	K Prop	Hunter Greene Under	CUB@RED	7:11 PM	6.5	3.6	-120	BetMGM Under 6.5 -110 \| best price	43.9%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Pitcher Outs	Hunter Brown Under	AST@RAN	8:06 PM	17.5	13.8	+105	FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 \| best price	21.0%	✓✓!!–!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Robbie Ray Under	ROC@GIA	10:16 PM	5.5	3.8	-134	DK Under 5.5 -134 \| exact	30.9%	✓✓✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Pitcher Hits All	Hunter Brown Under	AST@RAN	8:06 PM	5.5	4.3	-153	DK Under 5.5 -153 \| exact	21.8%	✓✓!!–!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Tanner Gordon Over	ROC@GIA	10:16 PM	5.5	6.5	-126	DK Over 5.5 -126 \| exact	18.2%	✓✓✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Young Over	ROY@ORI	7:06 PM	1.5	2.2	-121	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 \| best price	44.1%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Jack Flaherty Over	PHI@TIG	6:41 PM	1.5	2.1	-165	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 \| best price	39.6%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Sandy Alcantara Over	GUA@MAR	7:11 PM	1.5	2.0	-138	DK Over 1.5 -138 \| exact	31.2%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	DIA@DOD	10:11 PM	3.5	2.6	-155	DK Under 3.5 -155 \| exact	25.7%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Pitcher Earned R	Cal Quantrill Under	AST@RAN	8:06 PM	2.5	2.0	-143	DK Under 2.5 -143 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!!–!	GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (7 books) \| consensus 67% (7 books)	K Prop	Shota Imanaga Over	CUB@RED	7:11 PM	5.5	6.8	-115	BetRivers Over 5.5 -113 \| best price	24.5%	✓✓✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Shane Bieber Under	JAY@PAD	9:41 PM	4.5	3.5	-142	Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -135 \| best price	21.4%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Robbie Ray Over	ROC@GIA	10:16 PM	5.5	6.5	-112	BetMGM Over 5.5 +100 \| best price	18.0%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez Under	ANG@TWI	8:11 PM	4.5	3.7	-127	FanDuel Under 4.5 -111 \| best price	17.5%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	JP Sears Over	JAY@PAD	9:41 PM	3.5	4.1	-124	BetRivers Over 3.5 -118 \| best price	16.2%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Luis Castillo Under	MAR@RAY	7:11 PM	4.5	3.8	-116	BetRivers Under 4.5 -114 \| best price	14.6%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Shohei Ohtani Over	DIA@DOD	10:11 PM	6.5	7.4	+108	BetRivers Over 6.5 +123 \| best price	14.4%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Brandon Young Over	ROY@ORI	7:06 PM	4.5	5.1	+103	DK Over 4.5 +103 \| exact	14.1%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Nick Martinez Under	MAR@RAY	7:11 PM	4.5	3.9	-155	BetRivers Under 4.5 -141 \| best price	12.4%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft Over	BRE@PIR	6:41 PM	6.5	7.3	+123	DK Over 6.5 +123 \| exact	12.3%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Ryan Weathers Over	YAN@NAT	6:46 PM	5.5	6.2	+119	BetRivers Over 5.5 +128 \| best price	12.2%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	DIA@DOD	10:11 PM	4.5	4.0	-157	FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 \| best price	11.7%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Zebby Matthews Over	ANG@TWI	8:11 PM	5.5	6.1	-102	FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 \| best price	10.6%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Aaron Nola Over	PHI@TIG	6:41 PM	5.5	6.0	-101	DK Over 5.5 -101 \| exact	9.8%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Parker Messick Over	GUA@MAR	7:11 PM	5.5	6.0	-105	BetOnline Over 5.5 +104 \| best price	9.0%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Jack Flaherty Over	PHI@TIG	6:41 PM	5.5	5.9	-136	FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 \| best price	8.1%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sandy Alcantara Over	GUA@MAR	7:11 PM	5.5	5.8	-109	BetOnline Over 5.5 -103 \| best price	6.4%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Hunter Brown Under	AST@RAN	8:06 PM	5.5	5.2	-110	BetMGM Under 5.5 +110 \| best price	5.8%	✓✗!!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Brandon Sproat Under	BRE@PIR	6:41 PM	5.5	5.2	-146	DK Under 5.5 -146 \| exact	5.8%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Luinder Avila Under	ROY@ORI	7:06 PM	4.5	4.3	-160	FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 \| best price	4.1%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Chris Sale Under	BRA@CAR	8:16 PM	6.5	6.4	-145	BetOnline Under 6.5 -145 \| best price	1.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.94 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Luis Castillo Under	MAR@RAY	7:11 PM	17.5	14.6	-124	BetMGM Under 17.5 -120 \| best price	16.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.87 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Ryan Weathers Under	YAN@NAT	6:46 PM	17.5	15.6	-134	BetMGM Under 17.5 -125 \| best price	10.7%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Sonny Gray Over	SOX@MET	7:16 PM	17.5	19.1	-148	DK Over 17.5 -148 \| exact	9.4%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Shohei Ohtani Over	DIA@DOD	10:11 PM	18.5	20.2	+132	FanDuel Over 18.5 +146 \| best price	9.3%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Zebby Matthews Over	ANG@TWI	8:11 PM	17.5	19.1	-167	theScore Bet Over 17.5 -165 \| best price	8.9%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Sandy Alcantara Over	GUA@MAR	7:11 PM	18.5	20.1	+108	DK Over 18.5 +108 \| exact	8.5%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Brandon Young Under	ROY@ORI	7:06 PM	17.5	16.0	+111	DK Under 17.5 +111 \| exact	8.5%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Shota Imanaga Under	CUB@RED	7:11 PM	17.5	16.1	-114	DK Under 17.5 -114 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Robbie Ray Under	ROC@GIA	10:16 PM	18.5	17.3	-162	DK Under 18.5 -162 \| exact	6.6%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Parker Messick Over	GUA@MAR	7:11 PM	17.5	18.4	-127	Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -125 \| best price	5.1%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Nolan McLean Over	SOX@MET	7:16 PM	17.5	18.3	-174	Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 \| best price	4.5%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Nick Martinez Under	MAR@RAY	7:11 PM	17.5	17.0	-119	BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 \| best price	2.7%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Parker Messick Under	GUA@MAR	7:11 PM	5.5	4.8	-154	BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 \| best price	12.7%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	DIA@DOD	10:11 PM	5.5	4.8	-105	BetMGM Under 5.5 +115 \| best price	12.7%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Sandy Alcantara Over	GUA@MAR	7:11 PM	5.5	5.9	-103	DK Over 5.5 -103 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Luis Castillo Under	MAR@RAY	7:11 PM	5.5	5.1	-135	DK Under 5.5 -135 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Nick Martinez Under	MAR@RAY	7:11 PM	5.5	5.1	-130	DK Under 5.5 -130 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Shane Bieber Over	JAY@PAD	9:41 PM	5.5	5.9	-105	DK Over 5.5 -105 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Brandon Young Under	ROY@ORI	7:06 PM	5.5	5.3	-110	DK Under 5.5 -110 \| exact	3.6%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Zebby Matthews Under	ANG@TWI	8:11 PM	5.5	5.3	-123	Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 \| best price	3.6%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Aaron Nola Over	PHI@TIG	6:41 PM	5.5	5.6	-113	BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 \| best price	1.8%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Ryan Weathers Under	YAN@NAT	6:46 PM	5.5	5.4	-134	DK Under 5.5 -134 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Walks	Parker Messick Over	GUA@MAR	7:11 PM	1.5	2.0	-105	DK Over 1.5 -105 \| exact	31.6%	✓✓✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Hunter Greene Under	CUB@RED	7:11 PM	2.5	2.2	-190	DK Under 2.5 -190 \| exact	13.5%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Shota Imanaga Over	CUB@RED	7:11 PM	1.5	1.7	-111	DK Over 1.5 -111 \| exact	10.8%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Luinder Avila Over	ROY@ORI	7:06 PM	2.5	2.7	-119	DK Over 2.5 -119 \| exact	6.5%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Weathers Over	YAN@NAT	6:46 PM	1.5	1.6	-168	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 \| best price	6.3%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Aaron Nola Over	PHI@TIG	6:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-136	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 \| best price	4.6%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Shane Bieber Over	JAY@PAD	9:41 PM	2.5	3.1	-108	DK Over 2.5 -108 \| exact	24.0%	✓✓✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Jack Flaherty Under	PHI@TIG	6:41 PM	2.5	2.1	-143	DK Under 2.5 -143 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Shota Imanaga Under	CUB@RED	7:11 PM	2.5	2.1	-115	BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 \| best price	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Hunter Greene Over	CUB@RED	7:11 PM	2.5	2.9	-119	BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 \| best price	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Parker Messick Under	GUA@MAR	7:11 PM	2.5	2.1	-174	DK Under 2.5 -174 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Sean Burke Under	ATH@SOX	7:41 PM	2.5	2.1	-154	BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 \| best price	16.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Pitcher Earned R	Hunter Brown Under	AST@RAN	8:06 PM	2.5	2.1	-139	DK Under 2.5 -139 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!!–!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Zebby Matthews Over	ANG@TWI	8:11 PM	2.5	2.9	-117	DK Over 2.5 -117 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Shohei Ohtani Over	DIA@DOD	10:11 PM	1.5	1.7	-130	DK Over 1.5 -130 \| exact	13.3%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Ryan Weathers Under	YAN@NAT	6:46 PM	2.5	2.2	-110	DK Under 2.5 -110 \| exact	12.0%	✓!✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Luinder Avila Under	ROY@ORI	7:06 PM	2.5	2.2	-101	DK Under 2.5 -101 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Robbie Ray Over	ROC@GIA	10:16 PM	2.5	2.8	+110	DK Over 2.5 +110 \| exact	12.0%	✓!✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Tanner Gordon Over	ROC@GIA	10:16 PM	2.5	2.8	-125	DK Over 2.5 -125 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	JP Sears Over	JAY@PAD	9:41 PM	2.5	2.7	+125	DK Over 2.5 +125 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Aaron Nola Over	PHI@TIG	6:41 PM	2.5	2.6	-128	DK Over 2.5 -128 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Sandy Alcantara Over	GUA@MAR	7:11 PM	2.5	2.6	+103	BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Nick Martinez Over	MAR@RAY	7:11 PM	2.5	2.6	-103	BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Luis Castillo Over	MAR@RAY	7:11 PM	2.5	2.6	-109	DK Over 2.5 -109 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Grayson Rodriguez Over	ANG@TWI	8:11 PM	2.5	2.6	-109	BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Brandon Young Under	ROY@ORI	7:06 PM	2.5	2.5	+109	DK Under 2.5 +109 \| exact	-	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Kyle Leahy Over	BRA@CAR	8:16 PM	3.5	4.4	-150	BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 \| best price	24.9%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Tanner Gordon Over	ROC@GIA	10:16 PM	3.5	3.8	-168	FanDuel Over 3.5 -158 \| best price	9.8%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sean Burke Over	ATH@SOX	7:41 PM	5.5	5.9	-160	FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 \| best price	7.8%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Nolan McLean Over	SOX@MET	7:16 PM	6.5	7.0	-128	BetRivers Over 6.5 -127 \| best price	7.3%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sonny Gray Over	SOX@MET	7:16 PM	5.5	5.5	-126	BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 \| best price	0.1%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script