MLB Bets 2026-07-07

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	207W–136L–0P	60%	+6.10 u	Last 14 days • 343 settled
Grade A	21W–12L–0P	64%	+2.92 u
Grade B	186W–124L–0P	60%	+3.18 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	1950W–1384L–8P	58%	-127.42 u	All-time • 3342 settled
Grade A	200W–144L–0P	58%	+4.89 u
Grade B	1750W–1240L–8P	59%	-132.31 u

49 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	K Prop	Andrew Abbott	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	5.5	125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	K Prop	Justin Wrobleski	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	K Prop	Matthew Boyd	4.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	K Prop	Seth Lugo	4.5	124	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	K Prop	Tatsuya Imai	4.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	K Prop	Trevor McDonald	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Andrew Alvarez	2.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob Misiorowski	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob deGrom	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Max Meyer	2.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	2.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Baz	2.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Zac Gallen	2.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Zack Wheeler	2.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael Lorenzen	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Tatsuya Imai	5.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Trevor McDonald	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Zac Gallen	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Abbott	1.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Bryan Woo	1.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Hurston Waldrep	2.5	-192	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Justin Wrobleski	0.5	-198	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Max Meyer	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Michael Lorenzen	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Noah Schultz	1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz	1.5	-203	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Taj Bradley	1.5	-198	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Tarik Skubal	0.5	-250	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-07	Pitcher Walks	Tarik Skubal	1.5	-241	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-06	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	6.5	-134	-	LOSS	-1.000	Cristopher Sánchez: 1.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	367	58%	+6.55u	64	70%	+12.89u	170	61%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	328	59%	+16.01u	76	63%	+6.47u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	277	58%	-1.21u	105	55%	-6.41u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	195	59%	-9.85u	66	64%	+0.40u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	98	46%	-12.02u	12	58%	+0.72u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 25 total candidate(s); season N 367, 14d N 64	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 328, 14d N 76	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 32 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 32/32 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 37, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 98, 14d N 12	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 732 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 306 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 210 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 717 pitcher(s), 3113 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 549 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 32 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 29 team(s), 261 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 391 hitter(s) \| 32 SP matchup(s), 1060 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 261 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 15 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, Washington Nationals, New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Cleveland Guardians, Athletics, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 3 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 326 market side(s) checked \| 326 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 589 \| batter bats 404 \| batter hand splits 152 \| pitcher HR splits 63 \| batter pitch-type 549 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 14 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	-114	-106	-1.5 (+139)	+1.5 (-168)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+183	-225	+1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-104)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+124	-149	+1.5 (-167)	-1.5 (+137)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+105	-126	+1.5 (-208)	-1.5 (+170)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-105	-115	-1.5 (+150)	+1.5 (-182)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds	7:10 PM	-168	+139	-1.5 (-106)	+1.5 (-114)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-126	+104	-1.5 (+130)	+1.5 (-157)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-109	-110	-1.5 (+151)	+1.5 (-184)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-164)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+101	-122	+1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-118	-102	-1.5 (+143)	+1.5 (-174)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+239	-301	+1.5 (+118)	-1.5 (-142)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

1 Grade A | 20 Grade B | 71 Review-Only | 0 Pass | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -135, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Trevor McDonald Over	JAY@GIA	9:46 PM	3.5	4.5	-135	FanDuel Over 3.5 -128 \| best price	28.8%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (6 play(s))

Play	Projection	Displayed Bet	Market Line	Best Available	Own-Line Consensus	Selected Market
K Prop - Joey Cantillo Over Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.79	8.1	Over 5.5 +116	majority 4.5 \| avg 4.79	BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 \| alt rescue	4/6 OVER \| avg line 4.79 \| selected line 5.5 \| selected market UNDER 56.3%	Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%
Pitcher Walks - Tarik Skubal Over Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1	1.0	Over 0.5 -250	majority 0.5 \| avg 1	DK Over 0.5 -250 \| exact	0/1 UNDER \| avg line 1 \| selected line 0.5 \| selected market OVER 67.1%	Over 67.1% / Under 32.9%
Pitcher Earned Runs - Paul Skenes Under Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2	1.8	Under 2.5 -173	majority 1.5 \| avg 2	DK Under 2.5 -173 \| exact	1/1 OVER \| avg line 2 \| selected line 2.5 \| selected market UNDER 59.3%	Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%
K Prop - Tarik Skubal Over Selected line 8.5 is split from majority 7.5 / avg 7.79	8.6	Over 8.5 +122	majority 7.5 \| avg 7.79	theScore Bet Over 6.5 +120 \| alt rescue	3/6 OVER \| avg line 7.79 \| selected line 8.5 \| selected market UNDER 57.5%	Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%
Pitcher Walks - Seth Lugo Over Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1	1.7	Over 1.5 -134	majority 0.5 \| avg 1	DK Over 1.5 -134 \| exact	1/1 OVER \| avg line 1 \| selected line 1.5 \| selected market OVER 53.5%	Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%
Pitcher Earned Runs - Andrew Abbott Over Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3	2.7	Over 2.5 -154	majority 2.5 \| avg 3	DK Over 2.5 -154 \| exact	0/1 UNDER \| avg line 3 \| selected line 2.5 \| selected market OVER 56.7%	Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play K Prop — Trevor McDonald Over 3.5 (-135) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Over 3.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105
BetOnline	3.5	-130	+100
BetRivers	3.5	-157	+118
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100
DK	3.5	-135	+106
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 28.8% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.01K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Trevor McDonald: K/9 7.9, proj 4.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Rob Drake — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.7%, L7 21.3%, season 20.0% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/11 (82%) | Season 9/11 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.55
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -135, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (20 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add K Prop — Tatsuya Imai Over 4.5 (-125) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Best available: BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-105
BetRivers	4.5	-124	-107
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105
DK	4.5	-125	-102
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102

Checks: ✓✓!!–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 29.7% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.34K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Tatsuya Imai: K/9 11.3, proj 5.8K over 4.3 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Shane Livensparger — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.4%, L7 20.1%, season 21.6%, top-6 21.2% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.2% (4/6); lineup K% 21.1% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
K% trend: support +6.4 ppts (recent 34.3% vs season 27.9%, proj adj +3.2%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge -- B risk note

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.34K, diff 29.7%, books 83%)

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (-160) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Best available: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150
DK	5.5	+125	-160
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156

Checks: ✓✓!!–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 27.2% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.50K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 6.5, proj 4.0K over 6.2 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.1% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Beck — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Justin Wrobleski: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .227 | OPS .545
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.8%, L7 18.1%, season 22.8%, top-6 24.0%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.0% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/15 (73%) | Season 11/15 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.27
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 101 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 4.5 (-126) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Best available: BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120
BetOnline	4.5	+105	-135
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125
DK	4.5	-101	-126
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125

Checks: ✓✓!!–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 23.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.06K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Seth Lugo: K/9 6.6, proj 3.4K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.9% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Cutter (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ron Kulpa — 9.4 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.05x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Cutter: 4.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 46 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 19.6% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.040
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.7%, season 22.2%, BVP 19.6%/46 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 99 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Lorenzen Over 5.5 (-140) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Best available: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105
DK	5.5	-140	+106
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 6.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.35 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.68, BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 109)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 60 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .352 | OPS .974
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 19.6%, L7 16.5%, season 20.2%, top-6 20.1%, BVP 13.3%/60 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.1% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor McDonald Under 5.5 (-113) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Best available: DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact

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Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120
DK	5.5	-117	-113
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.7%, L7 21.3%, season 20.0% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

▸ Pitcher Walks — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Justin Wrobleski Over 0.5 (-168) diff 120.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 0.5 -168 | exact

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Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	0.5	-168	+126
theScore Bet	0.5	-175	+125

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.1027886488439804 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 120.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.21 over 6.0 IP (BB% 4.9%)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Justin Wrobleski: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .227 | OPS .545
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.8%, L7 18.1%, season 22.8%, top-6 24.0%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.3%, L7 10.6%, season 8.3%, BVP 0.0%/22 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Tarik Skubal Over 0.5 (-250) diff 96.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 67.1% / Under 32.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Best available: DK Over 0.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	0.5	-250	+185
theScore Bet	1.5	+165	-240

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 0.9844285442828908 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.18 over 5.7 IP (BB% 4.1%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 67.1% / under 32.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 67.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tarik Skubal: 60 PA | K% 38.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .648
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.7%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 38.3%/60 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 10.7%, L7 6.6%, season 9.5%, BVP 3.3%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-250) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Andrew Abbott Over 1.5 (-130) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

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Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	-130	-102
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4704930510301604 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.47 over 5.0 IP (BB% 10.8%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 75 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .288 | OPS .823
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.3%, L7 26.4%, season 23.5%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 13.3%/75 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.0%, L7 9.2%, season 7.9%, BVP 8.0%/75 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.2% (4/6); lineup K% 21.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Noah Schultz Over 1.5 (-180) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	-180	+135
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1102041754833234 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.49 over 4.4 IP (BB% 11.4%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 60.2% / under 39.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Schultz: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | AVG N/A | OPS N/A
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.5%, L7 23.4%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.1% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.6%, L7 7.9%, season 7.8% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/9 (67%) | L20 6/9 (67%) | Season 6/9 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.89 | Season Avg 2.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/9 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-180) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Michael Lorenzen Under 2.5 (-185) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 2.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	2.5	+139	-185
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7589246637970555 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 29.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.6 IP (BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 39.2% / under 60.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 109)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 60 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .352 | OPS .974
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 19.6%, L7 16.5%, season 20.2%, top-6 20.1%, BVP 13.3%/60 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.4%, split 12.7%, L7 12.1%, season 10.6%, BVP 8.3%/60 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.1% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Max Meyer Over 1.5 (-141) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	-141	+106
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105

Checks: ✓!!––✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8301738759371324 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.6 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Meyer: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.077
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 18.7%, L7 28.3%, season 23.3%, BVP 38.5%/13 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.7%, L7 7.9%, season 8.9%, BVP 0.0%/13 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Hurston Waldrep Under 2.5 (-195) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	2.5	+145	-195
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9992934960114126 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 38.2% / under 61.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hurston Waldrep: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 5.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.4%, L7 26.1%, season 24.0%, top-6 22.3% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 11.2%, L7 9.8%, season 9.5% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/2 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-195) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Walks — Bryan Woo Under 1.5 (-175) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Best available: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.2055378171481221 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.20 over 5.6 IP (BB% 4.8%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.4%, split 16.4%, L7 15.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 16.4% (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 10.0%, L7 11.0%, season 9.1% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 (-167) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160
DK	2.5	+126	-167

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.39 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 3.46, ERA 3.31)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Alvarez: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .077 | OPS .354
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 18.8%, L7 22.3%, season 21.7%, top-6 20.1%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.1% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 10/11 (91%) | Season 10/11 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Zac Gallen Over 2.5 (-137) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Over 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	-135	-105
DK	2.5	-137	+103

Checks: ✓✓!!–! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 3.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.47 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.89, ERA 7.34)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 93)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zac Gallen: 160 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .271 | OPS .865
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.0%, L7 24.9%, season 23.1%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 22.5%/160 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 3.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Under 2.5 (-157) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155
DK	2.5	+118	-157

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.63 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.15, ERA 2.42)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 77 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .188 | OPS .564
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 25.8%, L7 24.0%, season 24.7%, top-6 24.9%, BVP 26.0%/77 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Under 2.5 (-173) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Best available: DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130
DK	2.5	+130	-173

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.18 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.16, ERA 4.34)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.7% / under 59.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Paul Skenes: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .167 | OPS .596
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.3%, L7 22.3%, season 21.2%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.5% (6/6); lineup K% 20.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-173) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (-131) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115
DK	1.5	-131	-101

Checks: ✓✓!––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.77 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 3.57)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ian Seymour: 26 PA | K% 46.2% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .240 | OPS .869
Opponent K profile: composite 28.1%, split 23.1%, L7 32.0%, season 23.9%, BVP 46.2%/26 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/31 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Meyer Under 2.5 (-159) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155
DK	2.5	+119	-159

Checks: ✓✓!––✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.12 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.70, ERA 2.30)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Meyer: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.077
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 18.7%, L7 28.3%, season 23.3%, BVP 38.5%/13 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Over 2.5 (-133) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105
DK	2.5	-133	+100

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.46 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 4.13)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.395
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.1%, L7 21.8%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▼ Review-Only / Do-Not-Bet Signals (71 signal(s))

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 18 play(s) (A 1 | C 17)

A SMALL PLAY ◔ Small Play Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 (-121) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-115
DK	1.5	-121	-110

Checks: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► SMALL PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.06 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.08, ERA 3.48)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob deGrom: 53 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .312 | OPS 1.023
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 25.9%, L7 24.7%, season 25.0%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 28.3%/53 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.3% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 (-128) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110
DK	1.5	-128	-103

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.89 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.86, ERA 3.52)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tarik Skubal: 60 PA | K% 38.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .648
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.7%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 38.3%/60 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Hurston Waldrep Under 2.5 (-129) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130
DK	2.5	-103	-129

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.08 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.09)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hurston Waldrep: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 5.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.4%, L7 26.1%, season 24.0%, top-6 22.3% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Schultz Over 2.5 (+111) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130
DK	2.5	+111	-147

Checks: ✓!✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.90 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.75, ERA 6.72)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Schultz: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | AVG N/A | OPS N/A
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.5%, L7 23.4%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.1% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.1% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/9 (67%) | L20 6/9 (67%) | Season 6/9 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.11 | Season Avg 3.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/9 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Under 2.5 (-147) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150
DK	2.5	+110	-147

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.32 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 4.62)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.4%, L7 22.8%, season 24.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.71 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/7 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Warren Under 2.5 (-148) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140
DK	2.5	+111	-148

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.96 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.82, ERA 4.29)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Will Warren: 56 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .275 | OPS .701
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 16.9%, L7 19.6%, season 18.9%, top-6 17.0%, BVP 17.9%/56 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Tatsuya Imai Under 2.5 (-103) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105
DK	2.5	-129	-103

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.69 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 5.08)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.4%, L7 20.1%, season 21.6%, top-6 21.2% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.2% (4/6); lineup K% 21.1% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-122) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 2.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105
DK	2.5	-122	-109

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.94 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 4.87)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 46 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 19.6% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.040
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.7%, season 22.2%, BVP 19.6%/46 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-165) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160
DK	2.5	+124	-165

Checks: ✓!!!–! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.89 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.64, ERA 4.19)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 44 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .256 | OPS .649
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.9%, L7 17.6%, season 22.1%, top-6 23.3%, BVP 20.4%/44 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.3% (4/6); lineup K% 19.9% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor McDonald Under 2.5 (-159) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175
DK	2.5	+119	-159

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.99, ERA 4.41)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.7%, L7 21.3%, season 20.0% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-118) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 3.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-125
DK	3.5	-112	-118

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 3.1 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 11.4% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.64 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.70, ERA 6.04)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 109)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 60 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .352 | OPS .974
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 19.6%, L7 16.5%, season 20.2%, top-6 20.1%, BVP 13.3%/60 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.1% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 (-154) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Best available: DK Over 2.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	2.5	-154	+116
BetMGM	3.5	+125	-165

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.74 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.95, ERA 3.73)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 75 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .288 | OPS .823
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.3%, L7 26.4%, season 23.5%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 13.3%/75 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.2% (4/6); lineup K% 21.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Under 2.5 (-150) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150
DK	2.5	+113	-150

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.84 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 4.11)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 23.6%, L7 20.1%, season 23.6%, top-6 21.5% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-146) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130
DK	2.5	+110	-146

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 4.12)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Taj Bradley: 15 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.110
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 16.7%, L7 24.8%, season 22.0%, BVP 33.3%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — JT Ginn Under 2.5 (+102) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	-155	+110
DK	2.5	-135	+102

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.32, ERA 3.31)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
DK books agree: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.0%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Under 2.5 (-142) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140
DK	2.5	+107	-142

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.19 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.36, ERA 3.81)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 33 PA | K% 39.4% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .226 | OPS .531
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 21.0%, L7 23.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 39.4%/33 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Under 2.5 (-126) Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120
DK	2.5	-106	-126

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.89 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.77, ERA 4.83)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.4%, split 16.4%, L7 15.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 16.4% (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Wrobleski Under 2.5 (-128) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120
DK	2.5	-104	-128

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 2.76)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Justin Wrobleski: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .227 | OPS .545
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.8%, L7 18.1%, season 22.8%, top-6 24.0%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ K Prop — 21 play(s) (B 4 | C 17)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 5.5 (+116) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.79 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Best available: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115
BetRivers	4.5	-155	+116
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130
FanDuel	4.5	-170	+132
theScore Bet	4.5	+260	-450
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154
DK	5.5	+116	-148

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 47.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.63K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.79 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Joey Cantillo: K/9 9.3, proj 8.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Marvin Hudson — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 33 PA | K% 39.4% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .226 | OPS .531
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 21.0%, L7 23.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 39.4%/33 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 28.2% vs season 23.2%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.1% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jacob deGrom Over 7.5 (-113) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 7.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Best available: BetOnline Over 7.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	6.5	+160	-225
BetMGM	7.5	-135	+100
BetOnline	7.5	-105	-123
BetRivers	7.5	-112	-120
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-120
DK	7.5	-113	-113
FanDuel	7.5	-106	-120

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 31.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.33K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Jacob deGrom: K/9 10.8, proj 9.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 34.8% | put-away% 24.7% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Changeup (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Whitson — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob deGrom: 53 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .312 | OPS 1.023
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 25.9%, L7 24.7%, season 25.0%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 28.3%/53 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 25.3% (5/6); 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.76
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — JT Ginn Over 4.5 (-134) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Best available: DK Over 4.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100
BetOnline	4.5	-143	+110
BetRivers	4.5	-139	+106
DK	4.5	-134	+105
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 18.8% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.85K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
JT Ginn: K/9 7.5, proj 5.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 21.7% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jim Wolf — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.0%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 2/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.32
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Zac Gallen Under 3.5 (+115) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 3.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Best available: BetOnline Under 3.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	2.5	+150	-220
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110
BetOnline	3.5	-164	+125
BetRivers	3.5	-167	+125
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120
DK	3.5	-147	+115
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116

Checks: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.09K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Zac Gallen: K/9 5.1, proj 3.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.2% | put-away% 12.5% | xwOBA 0.378 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barksdale — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 32.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zac Gallen: 160 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .271 | OPS .865
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 160 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.0%, L7 24.9%, season 23.1%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 22.5%/160 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.8% (5/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.11
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Hurston Waldrep Over 4.5 (-125) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Over 4.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100
BetRivers	4.5	-114	-117
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115
DK	4.5	-125	-102
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 29.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.32K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 3/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Hurston Waldrep: K/9 8.6, proj 5.8K over 4.5 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/2 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.5% | put-away% 26.0% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (62% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Vic Carapazza — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Curveball: 38.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hurston Waldrep: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 5.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.4%, L7 26.1%, season 24.0%, top-6 22.3% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 0/2 (0%) | L10 0/2 (0%) | L20 0/2 (0%) | Season 0/2 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 0/2 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 5.5 (-121) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Best available: BetRivers Over 5.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115
BetOnline	5.5	-125	-103
BetRivers	5.5	-108	-124
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110
DK	5.5	-121	-105
FanDuel	5.5	-115	-111

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 16.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.89K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Ian Seymour: K/9 9.5, proj 6.4K over 4.8 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.4% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Gabe Morales — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 24.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ian Seymour: 26 PA | K% 46.2% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .240 | OPS .869
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 28.1%, split 23.1%, L7 32.0%, season 23.9%, BVP 46.2%/26 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 2/31 (6%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Max Meyer Over 6.5 (+111) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Over 6.5 +116 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	5.5	+225	-375
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150
BetOnline	6.5	+100	-130
BetRivers	6.5	+115	-152
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150
DK	6.5	+111	-142
FanDuel	6.5	+116	-148

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 15.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.03K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Max Meyer: K/9 9.7, proj 7.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Segal — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Meyer: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.077
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 18.7%, L7 28.3%, season 23.3%, BVP 38.5%/13 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.22
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Will Warren Under 4.5 (-123) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Under 4.5 -120 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-300
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143
BetRivers	4.5	-104	-129
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120
DK	4.5	-104	-123
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 13.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.58K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Will Warren: K/9 8.8, proj 3.9K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Gabe Morales — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Will Warren: 56 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .275 | OPS .701
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 56 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 16.9%, L7 19.6%, season 18.9%, top-6 17.0%, BVP 17.9%/56 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/17 (29%) | Season 5/17 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.6 ppts (recent 17.8% vs season 23.4%, proj adj -2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 6.5 (-104) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Best available: DK Over 6.5 -104 | exact

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	5.5	+180	-260
BetMGM	6.5	-115	-115
BetOnline	6.5	-105	-123
BetRivers	6.5	-118	-113
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115
DK	6.5	-104	-122
FanDuel	6.5	-108	-118

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.82K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Paul Skenes: K/9 11.5, proj 7.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.8% | put-away% 22.3% | xwOBA 0.260 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Vic Carapazza — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Paul Skenes: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .167 | OPS .596
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.3%, L7 22.3%, season 21.2%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.5% (6/6); lineup K% 20.8% (7/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.61
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (+117) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Best available: BetRivers Over 5.5 +118 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135
BetOnline	5.5	+109	-141
BetRivers	5.5	+118	-157
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145
DK	5.5	+117	-150
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 43.4% / under 56.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.61K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Jose Soriano: K/9 9.9, proj 6.1K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.9% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Whitson — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 23.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 44 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .256 | OPS .649
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.9%, L7 17.6%, season 22.1%, top-6 23.3%, BVP 20.4%/44 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.3% (4/6); lineup K% 19.9% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 6.17
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-142) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145
DK	5.5	+111	-142
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.60K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Shane Baz: K/9 7.6, proj 4.9K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ramon De Jesus — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 38.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.395
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.1%, L7 21.8%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.5% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (7/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Andrew Alvarez Over 4.5 (-124) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Best available: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-275
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120
BetOnline	4.5	-125	-103
BetRivers	4.5	-115	-115
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105
DK	4.5	-124	-103
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-104

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 52.2% / under 47.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.44K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Andrew Alvarez: K/9 10.2, proj 4.9K over 4.2 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Shane Livensparger — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Alvarez: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .077 | OPS .354
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 18.8%, L7 22.3%, season 21.7%, top-6 20.1%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.1% (5/6); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.36
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (+105) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Under 3.5 +106 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100
BetRivers	3.5	-129	-104
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105
DK	3.5	-134	+105
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+106

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.30K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 7.0, proj 3.2K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.0% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Beck — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 19% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 60 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .352 | OPS .974
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 19.6%, L7 16.5%, season 20.2%, top-6 20.1%, BVP 13.3%/60 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.1% (5/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.53
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Noah Schultz Under 4.5 (-104) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -104

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Under 4.5 +100 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-105
BetRivers	4.5	-118	-113
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100
DK	4.5	-122	-104
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100

Checks: ✓✗✓!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.33K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Noah Schultz: K/9 8.6, proj 4.2K over 4.6 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.357 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Charlie Ramos — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 35.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Schultz: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | AVG N/A | OPS N/A
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.5%, L7 23.4%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.1% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.1% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.44 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: K L10: 5/9 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 (+106) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Over 7.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	6.5	+200	-300
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-135
BetOnline	7.5	+100	-130
BetRivers	7.5	+110	-148
Bovada Direct	7.5	+110	-145
DK	7.5	+106	-135
FanDuel	7.5	+112	-142

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.44K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Zack Wheeler: K/9 10.1, proj 7.9K over 6.0 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.6% | put-away% 21.4% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Malachi Moore — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 77 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .188 | OPS .564
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 25.8%, L7 24.0%, season 24.7%, top-6 24.9%, BVP 26.0%/77 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.9% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/13 (38%) | Season 5/13 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.46
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5
K% trend: support +3.0 ppts (recent 30.3% vs season 27.3%, proj adj +1.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Taj Bradley Under 6.5 (-137) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.21 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 6.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	5.5	-175	+130
theScore Bet	5.5	+230	-400
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147
BetRivers	6.5	+114	-150
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160
DK	6.5	+107	-137
FanDuel	6.5	+120	-154

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.33K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.21 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Taj Bradley: K/9 10.4, proj 6.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Split-Finger (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Marvin Hudson — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Taj Bradley: 15 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.110
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 16.7%, L7 24.8%, season 22.0%, BVP 33.3%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.38
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Payton Tolle Under 5.5 (-106) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Under 5.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110
BetOnline	5.5	-108	-120
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105
DK	5.5	-120	-106
FanDuel	5.5	-122	-104

Checks: ✓✗✓!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.24K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Payton Tolle: K/9 8.5, proj 5.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Charlie Ramos — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 25.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 23.6%, L7 20.1%, season 23.6%, top-6 21.5% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.5% (5/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.69
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-160) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	4.5	-200	+145
BetOnline	5.5	+125	-164
BetRivers	5.5	+123	-165
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150
DK	5.5	+125	-160
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.23K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.0, proj 5.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Segal — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 17.4%, split 16.4%, L7 15.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 16.4% (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 16.4% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 (+122) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 6.5 +120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 7.79 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 3 books | 8.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Best available: theScore Bet Over 6.5 +120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	6.5	+120	-165
BetMGM	7.5	-160	+120
Bovada Direct	7.5	-150	+115
FanDuel	7.5	-148	+116
BetOnline	8.5	+110	-143
BetRivers	8.5	+120	-159
DK	8.5	+122	-156

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 1.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.12K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/6 OVER | avg line 7.79 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Tarik Skubal: K/9 10.6, proj 8.6K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.3% | put-away% 23.3% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Changeup (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jim Wolf — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tarik Skubal: 60 PA | K% 38.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .648
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.7%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 38.3%/60 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/11 (27%) | Season 3/11 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.82
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 8.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 33.0% vs season 29.5%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 (+119) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -154 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +119

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 UNDER | avg line 4.64 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Under 5.5 -154 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	3.5	+130	-180
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110
BetOnline	4.5	-149	+115
BetRivers	4.5	-150	+112
DK	4.5	-152	+119
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.02K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 3/6 UNDER | avg line 4.64 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.6, proj 4.5K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Malachi Moore — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 75 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .288 | OPS .823
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 75 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.3%, L7 26.4%, season 23.5%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 13.3%/75 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.2% (4/6); lineup K% 21.8% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.06
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 22.2% vs season 17.6%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 5.5 (+125) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 4.5 +120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.1 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Best available: theScore Bet Over 4.5 +120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
FanDuel	4.5	-178	+138
theScore Bet	4.5	+120	-165
BetMGM	5.5	+135	-185
BetOnline	5.5	+130	-169
DK	5.5	+125	-160

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.01K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.1 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Matthew Boyd: K/9 8.6, proj 5.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Slider (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ramon De Jesus — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.4%, L7 22.8%, season 24.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/7 (29%) | L20 2/7 (29%) | Season 2/7 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.29 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: K L10: 2/7 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -7.0 ppts (recent 18.5% vs season 25.5%, proj adj -3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 7 play(s) (B 1 | C 6)

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor Pitcher Outs — Max Meyer Over 17.5 (-153) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Best available: FanDuel Over 17.5 -144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	17.5	-145	+105
BetOnline	17.5	-145	+105
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115
DK	17.5	-153	+115
FanDuel	17.5	-144	+108
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105

Checks: ✓✗✓––✓ ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 18.108 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.70 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Max Meyer: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS 1.077
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 18.7%, L7 28.3%, season 23.3%, BVP 38.5%/13 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.7%, L7 7.9%, season 8.9%, BVP 0.0%/13 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.13 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 (-160) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Best available: DK Over 17.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120
DK	17.5	-160	+120
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115
BetMGM	18.5	+150	-210

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 19.696 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.15 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 77 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .188 | OPS .564
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 25.8%, L7 24.0%, season 24.7%, top-6 24.9%, BVP 26.0%/77 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.3%, L7 7.9%, season 9.8%, BVP 7.8%/77 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 18.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.20 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.20 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Jacob deGrom Over 18.5 (+133) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 18.25 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books | 17.5 at 1 book | 18 at 1 book

Best available: FanDuel Over 18.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	17.5	-235	+175
BetOnline	18	-110	-130
Bovada Direct	18.5	+135	-175
DK	18.5	+133	-178
FanDuel	18.5	+140	-192
theScore Bet	18.5	+140	-200

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 19.871999999999996 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 7.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.08 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 40.1% / under 59.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 18.25 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob deGrom: 53 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .312 | OPS 1.023
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 25.9%, L7 24.7%, season 25.0%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 28.3%/53 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 9.5%, L7 4.7%, season 8.6%, BVP 9.4%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.3% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/17 (18%) | Season 3/17 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 16.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Justin Wrobleski Over 18.5 (+134) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -175 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 18.3 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books | 17.5 at 1 book

Best available: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -175 | alt rescue

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Book	Line	Over	Under
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135
BetMGM	18.5	+130	-175
DK	18.5	+134	-179
FanDuel	18.5	+120	-166
theScore Bet	18.5	+125	-180

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 19.553 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.4 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.31 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 40.0% / under 60.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 18.3 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 105) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.4 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Justin Wrobleski: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .227 | OPS .545
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.8%, L7 18.1%, season 22.8%, top-6 24.0%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.3%, L7 10.6%, season 8.3%, BVP 0.0%/22 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.4 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 18.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 (+117) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 18.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Best available: BetOnline Over 18.5 +120 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	18.5	+110	-150
BetOnline	18.5	+120	-160
Bovada Direct	18.5	+100	-140
DK	18.5	+117	-156
FanDuel	18.5	+110	-152
theScore Bet	18.5	+105	-150

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 19.534000000000002 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 5.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.86 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tarik Skubal: 60 PA | K% 38.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .648
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.7%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 38.3%/60 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 10.7%, L7 6.6%, season 9.5%, BVP 3.3%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/11 (27%) | Season 3/11 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Under 17.5 (+128) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 18 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +128

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.62 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 18 at 1 book

Best available: BetOnline Under 18 -125 | alt rescue

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Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+125
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130
DK	17.5	-170	+128
BetOnline	18	-115	-125

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 17.213 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.77 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.62 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
Opponent K profile: composite 17.4%, split 16.4%, L7 15.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 16.4% (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 10.0%, L7 11.0%, season 9.1% (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/17 (29%) | Season 5/17 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 17.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Under 17.5 (+116) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Best available: FanDuel Under 17.5 +138 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+125
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115
DK	17.5	-154	+116
FanDuel	17.5	-186	+138
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125

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▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 17.27 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.16 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Paul Skenes: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .167 | OPS .596
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.3%, L7 22.3%, season 21.2%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 8.1%, L7 10.2%, season 8.0%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.5% (6/6); lineup K% 20.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zac Gallen Over 5.5 (-113) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Best available: BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-118
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110
DK	5.5	-113	-118
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125

Checks: ✓✓✗!–! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 6.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.34 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.63, BB% 6.8%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 93)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zac Gallen: 160 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .271 | OPS .865
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.0%, L7 24.9%, season 23.1%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 22.5%/160 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 6.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Over 5.5 (+101) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Best available: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140
DK	5.5	+101	-134
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.395
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.1%, L7 21.8%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (+103) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Best available: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact

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Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100
DK	5.5	-137	+103
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	-105

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.02, BB% 4.9%)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Justin Wrobleski: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .227 | OPS .545
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.8%, L7 18.1%, season 22.8%, top-6 24.0%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hurston Waldrep Under 5.5 (-161) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Best available: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -160 | best price

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Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160
DK	5.5	+121	-161
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.46, BB% 9.1%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hurston Waldrep: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 5.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.4%, L7 26.1%, season 24.0%, top-6 22.3% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/2 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 (-114) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Best available: DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact

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Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120
DK	5.5	-116	-114
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.45, BB% 10.8%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 75 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .288 | OPS .823
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.3%, L7 26.4%, season 23.5%, top-6 23.2%, BVP 13.3%/75 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.2% (4/6); lineup K% 21.8% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — JT Ginn Under 5.5 (-124) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Best available: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115
DK	5.5	-107	-124
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125

Checks: ✓✗✓––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.35, BB% 10.4%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
DK books agree: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.0%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 3.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Over 5.5 (-124) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Best available: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110
DK	5.5	-124	-107
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115

Checks: ✓✗✓––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 46 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 19.6% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.040
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.7%, season 22.2%, BVP 19.6%/46 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-103) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Best available: DK Under 5.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110
DK	5.5	-129	-103

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.89 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.09, BB% 4.8%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.4%, split 16.4%, L7 15.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 16.4% (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 17 play(s) (C 17)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (+100) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	+100	-133
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130

Checks: ✓✓✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8618314501126325 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Payton Tolle: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 23.6%, L7 20.1%, season 23.6%, top-6 21.5% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 8.9%, L7 9.1%, season 9.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 (-112) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	-112	-119
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7718272172857117 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.6 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.18x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.4%, L7 22.8%, season 24.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.5%, split 11.3%, L7 13.1%, season 10.2% (adj 1.18x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/7 (43%) | L20 3/7 (43%) | Season 3/7 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.43 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/7 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Seth Lugo Over 1.5 (-134) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Best available: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
theScore Bet	0.5	-800	+380
DK	1.5	-134	+101

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7476166858738467 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 46 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 19.6% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.040
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.7%, season 22.2%, BVP 19.6%/46 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 8.8%, L7 7.7%, season 8.1%, BVP 19.6%/46 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Jacob deGrom Under 1.5 (-185) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	+138	-185
theScore Bet	1.5	+135	-190

Checks: ✓!!!–! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.2611184644351467 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.3%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 39.3% / under 60.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob deGrom: 53 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .312 | OPS 1.023
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 25.9%, L7 24.7%, season 25.0%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 28.3%/53 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 9.5%, L7 4.7%, season 8.6%, BVP 9.4%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.3% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (+121) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	+121	-162
theScore Bet	1.5	+115	-160

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7352455484856018 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ian Seymour: 26 PA | K% 46.2% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .240 | OPS .869
Opponent K profile: composite 28.1%, split 23.1%, L7 32.0%, season 23.9%, BVP 46.2%/26 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 8.9%, L7 6.6%, season 10.4%, BVP 3.9%/26 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/31 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Andrew Alvarez Over 1.5 (-158) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	-158	+119
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.6860081727783554 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.1 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Alvarez: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .077 | OPS .354
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 18.8%, L7 22.3%, season 21.7%, top-6 20.1%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.7%, L7 7.2%, season 8.7%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.1% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/11 (27%) | Season 3/11 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Will Warren Over 1.5 (-167) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	-167	+125
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6522473644970797 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Will Warren: 56 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .275 | OPS .701
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 16.9%, L7 19.6%, season 18.9%, top-6 17.0%, BVP 17.9%/56 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.8%, L7 9.6%, season 9.5%, BVP 5.4%/56 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.0% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-183) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 1.5 -183 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	-183	+137
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+135

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6380258147544593 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zack Wheeler: 77 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .188 | OPS .564
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 25.8%, L7 24.0%, season 24.7%, top-6 24.9%, BVP 26.0%/77 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.3%, L7 7.9%, season 9.8%, BVP 7.8%/77 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/13 (38%) | Season 5/13 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — JT Ginn Over 2.5 (+130) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 2.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	2.5	+130	-173
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-175

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.727822409725455 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.5 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
DK books agree: NO (over 40.7% / under 59.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.0%, L7 24.3%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 12.7%, L7 6.6%, season 9.5% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Tatsuya Imai Under 2.5 (-164) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	2.5	+124	-164
theScore Bet	2.5	+115	-160

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.307770630422272 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.51 over 4.1 IP (BB% 11.8%)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.4%, L7 20.1%, season 21.6%, top-6 21.2% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 9.8%, L7 11.9%, season 8.8% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.2% (4/6); lineup K% 21.1% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Paul Skenes Under 1.5 (-111) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	-119	-111
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4304952061858518 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.2 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Paul Skenes: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .167 | OPS .596
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.3%, L7 22.3%, season 21.2%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 8.1%, L7 10.2%, season 8.0%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.5% (6/6); lineup K% 20.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Trevor McDonald Under 1.5 (-139) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	+105	-139
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-135

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.4498700368555002 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.7%, L7 21.3%, season 20.0% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 6.8%, L7 7.2%, season 7.4% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Zac Gallen Over 1.5 (-182) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	1.5	-182	+136
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+135

Checks: ✓✗!!–! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.549695586536683 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.0 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 93)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zac Gallen: 160 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .271 | OPS .865
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.0%, L7 24.9%, season 23.1%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 22.5%/160 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.8%, L7 7.8%, season 9.0%, BVP 9.4%/160 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-187) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 2.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	2.5	+140	-187
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.438533762332461 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 5.3 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 39.0% / under 61.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Taj Bradley: 15 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.110
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 16.7%, L7 24.8%, season 22.0%, BVP 33.3%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 11.3%, L7 8.0%, season 9.9%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Shane Baz Under 2.5 (-184) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	2.5	+138	-184
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-180

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4463086679808974 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.6 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 39.3% / under 60.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.395
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.1%, L7 21.8%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 11.9%, L7 10.7%, season 11.2%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-142) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	2.5	+107	-142
theScore Bet	2.5	+105	-140

Checks: ✓✗!!–! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.460144356957626 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 5.1 IP (BB% 11.6%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs José Soriano: 44 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .256 | OPS .649
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.9%, L7 17.6%, season 22.1%, top-6 23.3%, BVP 20.4%/44 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 7.0%, L7 7.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 11.4%/44 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.3% (4/6); lineup K% 19.9% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Walks — Joey Cantillo Under 2.5 (-135) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Best available: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
DK	2.5	+101	-135
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-135

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4872181890477574 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.49 over 5.2 IP (BB% 11.5%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.4% / under 53.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 33 PA | K% 39.4% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .226 | OPS .531
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 21.0%, L7 23.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 39.4%/33 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 7.5%, L7 8.6%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.1%/33 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

32 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	87.9	93.7	94.5	5	Curveball (50% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 38.7%, put-away 32.6%, xwOBA 0.226, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves	68.3	61.6	77.5	7	Changeup (40% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	67.3	78.1	63.0	5	Changeup (44% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 34.8%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	66.3	64.3	73.0	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	64.1	65.7	66.5	5	Changeup (49% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hurston Waldrep	Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	62.8	68.8	56.0	5	Curveball (62% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 26.0%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	60.3	60.2	65.0	7	Sweeper (40% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	58.7	51.1	68.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 48% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	57.3	71.4	46.5	5	Curveball (47% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 32.9%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	57.0	52.2	65.0	5	Sweeper (36% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	57.0	45.8	66.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Max Meyer	Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners	56.5	60.3	57.0	5	Slider (41% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	54.2	56.8	53.0	4	Split-Finger (39% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	54.0	61.2	48.5	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Spencer Miles	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants	53.3	44.8	66.0	5	Curveball (22% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros	53.0	57.3	51.0	5	Slider (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	52.8	58.2	51.0	5	Slider (32% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	52.7	66.0	40.0	5	Slider (50% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays	50.1	47.6	54.5	4	Slider (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	50.1	49.1	51.5	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tatsuya Imai	Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	50.0	66.2	37.5	6	Slider (41% whiff, 45% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	43.6	43.3	44.0	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies	42.6	44.1	38.0	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies	41.9	38.0	47.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 50% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Hunter Dobbins	St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	39.1	52.3	28.5	6	Slider (28% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	37.6	45.7	29.0	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	36.1	39.7	27.5	7	Changeup (33% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cionel Pérez	New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals	35.7	49.6	22.0	4	Slurve (35% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.371, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Matt Svanson	St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	35.4	43.5	25.0	4	Sweeper (30% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	35.1	36.8	31.0	8	Cutter (23% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	31.4	34.3	22.0	5	Curveball (27% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 13.0%, xwOBA 0.371, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zac Gallen	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	27.9	32.6	18.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.378, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

32 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Zac Gallen	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	R	12.4%	5.3	5.1	5.2	89	normal	full	18.50	81.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	R	19.4%	5.7	5.5	5.5	96	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Hurston Waldrep	Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	21.7%	3.5	5.3	5.4	59	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	R	19.5%	5.8	5.9	5.9	97	normal	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	L	22.5%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	L	21.9%	4.7	4.8	5.0	79	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	L	21.2%	4.1	4.8	4.7	69	short	full	29.00	71.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	19.2%	5.2	5.3	5.3	87	normal	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	L	25.0%	5.8	5.1	6.0	97	normal	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	16.4%	4.9	4.7	4.8	82	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	L	29.9%	5.7	6.0	6.0	96	normal	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Tatsuya Imai	Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	R	28.7%	4.8	4.0	4.2	80	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	R	17.3%	5.0	5.7	5.5	84	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	R	25.4%	4.8	5.6	5.4	80	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies	L	18.1%	6.0	6.4	6.3	101	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Meyer	Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners	R	25.8%	5.8	5.7	6.0	97	normal	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	40.4%	6.6	6.1	6.2	111	deep	full	94.50	5.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	23.9%	5.3	5.1	5.3	89	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	27.0%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Cionel Pérez	New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals	L	24.6%	1.5	1.0	4.5	25	short	full	22.00	78.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.5 IP/start
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	21.4%	4.7	5.2	5.1	79	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	R	28.3%	5.7	6.2	6.1	96	normal	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves	R	30.6%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	77.50	22.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	17.6%	4.8	4.9	5.2	80	short	full	22.00	78.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	20.0%	4.5	5.2	5.0	76	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 20.0%
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	R	24.3%	5.6	5.8	6.0	94	normal	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Dobbins	St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	24.2%	4.1	4.3	5.2	69	short	full	28.50	71.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Matt Svanson	St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	22.8%	1.3	-	4.9	22	short	full	25.00	75.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	L	26.1%	4.9	4.2	5.1	82	short	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	R	30.4%	6.2	5.6	6.0	104	deep	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Spencer Miles	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants	R	27.5%	1.9	3.0	4.5	32	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.9 IP/start
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros	L	26.2%	4.1	4.2	4.8	69	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	19.7	2.2	12.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.1	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.20 <= 3 min
Jacob deGrom	Jacob deGrom Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	18.5	19.9	1.4	7.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Justin Wrobleski	Justin Wrobleski Over	Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	19.6	1.1	5.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Athletics @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	19.5	1.0	5.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Under	Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Under	Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Max Meyer	Max Meyer Over	Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.5%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	Blended market direction + consensus lean % across available books	Blended market agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 1 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Final Signals

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes