| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 367 | 58% | +6.55u | 64 | 70% | +12.89u | 170 | 61% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 328 | 59% | +16.01u | 76 | 63% | +6.47u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 277 | 58% | -1.21u | 105 | 55% | -6.41u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 195 | 59% | -9.85u | 66 | 64% | +0.40u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 98 | 46% | -12.02u | 12 | 58% | +0.72u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | 87.9 | 93.7 | 94.5 | 5 | Curveball (50% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 38.7%, put-away 32.6%, xwOBA 0.226, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | 68.3 | 61.6 | 77.5 | 7 | Changeup (40% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | 67.3 | 78.1 | 63.0 | 5 | Changeup (44% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 34.8%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | 66.3 | 64.3 | 73.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | 64.1 | 65.7 | 66.5 | 5 | Changeup (49% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Hurston Waldrep | Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.8 | 68.8 | 56.0 | 5 | Curveball (62% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 26.0%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | 60.3 | 60.2 | 65.0 | 7 | Sweeper (40% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | 58.7 | 51.1 | 68.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 48% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | 57.3 | 71.4 | 46.5 | 5 | Curveball (47% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 32.9%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins | 57.0 | 52.2 | 65.0 | 5 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | 57.0 | 45.8 | 66.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners | 56.5 | 60.3 | 57.0 | 5 | Slider (41% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | 54.2 | 56.8 | 53.0 | 4 | Split-Finger (39% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 54.0 | 61.2 | 48.5 | 5 | Changeup (39% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Spencer Miles | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | 53.3 | 44.8 | 66.0 | 5 | Curveball (22% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros | 53.0 | 57.3 | 51.0 | 5 | Slider (38% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | 52.8 | 58.2 | 51.0 | 5 | Slider (32% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | 52.7 | 66.0 | 40.0 | 5 | Slider (50% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays | 50.1 | 47.6 | 54.5 | 4 | Slider (39% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | 50.1 | 49.1 | 51.5 | 5 | Changeup (29% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | 50.0 | 66.2 | 37.5 | 6 | Slider (41% whiff, 45% usage) | Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs | 43.6 | 43.3 | 44.0 | 5 | Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | 42.6 | 44.1 | 38.0 | 5 | Changeup (39% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | 41.9 | 38.0 | 47.5 | 7 | 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 50% usage) | Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Dobbins | St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | 39.1 | 52.3 | 28.5 | 6 | Slider (28% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Schultz | Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | 37.6 | 45.7 | 29.0 | 5 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 36.1 | 39.7 | 27.5 | 7 | Changeup (33% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cionel Pérez | New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals | 35.7 | 49.6 | 22.0 | 4 | Slurve (35% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.371, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Matt Svanson | St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | 35.4 | 43.5 | 25.0 | 4 | Sweeper (30% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets | 35.1 | 36.8 | 31.0 | 8 | Cutter (23% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Germán Márquez | San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 31.4 | 34.3 | 22.0 | 5 | Curveball (27% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 13.0%, xwOBA 0.371, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 27.9 | 32.6 | 18.5 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.378, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | R | 12.4% | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 18.50 | 81.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | R | 19.4% | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 96 | normal | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Hurston Waldrep | Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 21.7% | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 59 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs | R | 19.5% | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 97 | normal | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | L | 22.5% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 21.9% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 79 | short | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Noah Schultz | Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | L | 21.2% | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 69 | short | full | 29.00 | 71.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 19.2% | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 87 | normal | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | L | 25.0% | 5.8 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 16.4% | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 82 | short | full | 27.50 | 72.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | L | 29.9% | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 96 | normal | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | R | 28.7% | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 80 | short | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets | R | 17.3% | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | R | 25.4% | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 80 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | L | 18.1% | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 101 | deep | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners | R | 25.8% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 40.4% | 6.6 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 111 | deep | full | 94.50 | 5.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 23.9% | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 89 | normal | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 27.0% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Cionel Pérez | New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals | L | 24.6% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 25 | short | full | 22.00 | 78.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.5 IP/start |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 21.4% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 79 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 28.3% | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 96 | normal | full | 73.00 | 27.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | R | 30.6% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 77.50 | 22.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Germán Márquez | San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 17.6% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | 22.00 | 78.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 20.0% | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 20.0% |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins | R | 24.3% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Hunter Dobbins | St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 24.2% | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 69 | short | full | 28.50 | 71.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Matt Svanson | St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 22.8% | 1.3 | - | 4.9 | 22 | short | full | 25.00 | 75.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | L | 26.1% | 4.9 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 82 | short | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 30.4% | 6.2 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Spencer Miles | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | R | 27.5% | 1.9 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 32 | short | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.9 IP/start |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros | L | 26.2% | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 69 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | 17.5 | 19.7 | 2.2 | 12.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.1 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.20 <= 3 min |
| Jacob deGrom | Jacob deGrom Over | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | 18.5 | 19.9 | 1.4 | 7.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Justin Wrobleski | Justin Wrobleski Over | Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 18.5 | 19.6 | 1.1 | 5.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal Over | Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | 18.5 | 19.5 | 1.0 | 5.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Under | Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Paul Skenes | Paul Skenes Under | Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Max Meyer | Max Meyer Over | Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 18.1 | 0.6 | 3.5% | B | MONITOR | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -135, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Trevor McDonald Over | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | -135 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -128 | best price | 28.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Good Add Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Tatsuya Imai Over | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 4.5 | 5.8 | -125 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price | 29.7% | ✓✓!!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 101 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks | K Prop | Justin Wrobleski Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -160 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price | 27.2% | ✓✓!!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 99 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks | K Prop | Seth Lugo Under | ROY@MET | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.4 | -126 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 | best price | 23.5% | ✓✓!!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Lorenzen Over | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.9 | -140 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price | 25.4% | ✓✓✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor McDonald Under | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -113 | DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Justin Wrobleski Over | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 0.5 | 1.1 | -168 | DK Over 0.5 -168 | exact | 120.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Tarik Skubal Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.0 | -250 | DK Over 0.5 -250 | exact | 96.9% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Abbott Over | PHI@RED | 7:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -130 | DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact | 64.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Noah Schultz Over | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -180 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 40.7% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Michael Lorenzen Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -185 | DK Under 2.5 -185 | exact | 29.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Max Meyer Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -141 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price | 22.0% | ✓!!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Hurston Waldrep Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -195 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -190 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -175 | DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact | 19.6% | ✓!!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Alvarez Under | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 1.5 | -167 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over | Pitcher Earned R | Zac Gallen Over | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.5 | -137 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -135 | best price | 40.0% | ✓✓!!–! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Zack Wheeler Under | PHI@RED | 7:10 PM | 2.5 | 1.6 | -157 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 36.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Paul Skenes Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -173 | DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Ian Seymour Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -131 | DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Max Meyer Under | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -159 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Over | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -133 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| ► SMALL PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A (Weak) | ◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob deGrom Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -121 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price | 26.7% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | SMALL PLAY |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.1% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Joey Cantillo Over | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 8.1 | +116 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue | 47.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Jacob deGrom Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 7.5 | 9.8 | -113 | BetOnline Over 7.5 -105 | best price | 31.0% | ✓✓✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books) | K Prop | Hurston Waldrep Over | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.8 | -125 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -104 | best price | 29.4% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ian Seymour Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | -121 | BetRivers Over 5.5 -108 | best price | 16.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Max Meyer Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.5 | +111 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +116 | best price | 15.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Will Warren Under | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | -123 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -120 | best price | 13.0% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Over | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | -104 | DK Over 6.5 -104 | exact | 12.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +117 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +118 | best price | 11.1% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Baz Under | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -142 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price | 11.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Alvarez Over | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -124 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 9.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Lorenzen Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | +105 | FanDuel Under 3.5 +106 | best price | 8.4% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Schultz Under | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -104 | FanDuel Under 4.5 +100 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zack Wheeler Over | PHI@RED | 7:10 PM | 7.5 | 7.9 | +106 | FanDuel Over 7.5 +112 | best price | 5.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Taj Bradley Under | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -137 | DK Under 6.5 -137 | exact | 5.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Payton Tolle Under | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -106 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -104 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -160 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tarik Skubal Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 8.5 | 8.6 | +122 | theScore Bet Over 6.5 +120 | alt rescue | 1.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Abbott Under | PHI@RED | 7:10 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +119 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -154 | alt rescue | 0.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +125 | theScore Bet Over 4.5 +120 | alt rescue | 0.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.20 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zack Wheeler Over | PHI@RED | 7:10 PM | 17.5 | 19.7 | -160 | DK Over 17.5 -160 | exact | 12.6% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jacob deGrom Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 18.5 | 19.9 | +133 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +140 | best price | 7.4% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Justin Wrobleski Over | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 18.5 | 19.6 | +134 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -175 | alt rescue | 5.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tarik Skubal Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 19.5 | +117 | BetOnline Over 18.5 +120 | best price | 5.6% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | +128 | BetOnline Under 18 -125 | alt rescue | 1.6% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Paul Skenes Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | +116 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +138 | best price | 1.3% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Hits All | Zac Gallen Over | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -113 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓✗!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Baz Over | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +101 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Justin Wrobleski Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | +103 | DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Hurston Waldrep Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -161 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -160 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Andrew Abbott Under | PHI@RED | 7:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -114 | DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | JT Ginn Under | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -124 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@MET | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -124 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -103 | DK Under 5.5 -103 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Payton Tolle Over | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +100 | DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact | 24.1% | ✓✓✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -112 | DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact | 18.1% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -134 | DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact | 16.5% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Walks | Jacob deGrom Under | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -185 | DK Under 1.5 -185 | exact | 15.9% | ✓!!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Ian Seymour Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +121 | DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact | 15.7% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Alvarez Over | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -158 | DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact | 12.4% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Will Warren Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -167 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Zack Wheeler Over | PHI@RED | 7:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -183 | DK Over 1.5 -183 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | JT Ginn Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +130 | DK Over 2.5 +130 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Tatsuya Imai Under | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -164 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 7.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Paul Skenes Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -111 | DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact | 4.6% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Trevor McDonald Under | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -139 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -135 | best price | 3.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Zac Gallen Over | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -182 | DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact | 3.3% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Taj Bradley Under | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -187 | DK Under 2.5 -187 | exact | 2.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Shane Baz Under | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -184 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -180 | best price | 2.1% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jose Soriano Under | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -142 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 1.6% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Joey Cantillo Under | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -135 | DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact | 0.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Tarik Skubal Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -128 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price | 20.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Hurston Waldrep Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -129 | DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Schultz Over | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | +111 | DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Boyd Under | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -147 | DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Will Warren Under | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -148 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Tatsuya Imai Under | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -103 | DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -122 | DK Over 2.5 -122 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Jose Soriano Under | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -165 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor McDonald Under | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -159 | DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Lorenzen Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.1 | -118 | DK Under 3.5 -118 | exact | 11.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Abbott Over | PHI@RED | 7:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -154 | DK Over 2.5 -154 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Payton Tolle Under | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Taj Bradley Under | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -146 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | JT Ginn Under | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +102 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Joey Cantillo Under | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -142 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -126 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | - | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Justin Wrobleski Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -128 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | JT Ginn Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -134 | DK Over 4.5 -134 | exact | 18.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zac Gallen Under | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | +115 | BetOnline Under 3.5 +125 | best price | 2.4% | ✓✗!✓–✓ | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Max Meyer Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.1 | -153 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -144 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗✓––✓ | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script