MLB Bets 2026-06-12

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	771W–511L–0P	60%	-51.75 u	Last 14 days • 1282 settled
Grade A	42W–35L–0P	55%	-3.76 u
Grade B	729W–476L–0P	60%	-47.99 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	1334W–1035L–7P	56%	-124.84 u	All-time • 2376 settled
Grade A	155W–124L–0P	56%	-8.54 u
Grade B	1179W–911L–7P	56%	-116.30 u

12 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	K Prop	Bryce Miller	4.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	K Prop	Shane Baz	5.5	-151	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-06-11	K Prop	Kumar Rocker	3.5	-132	-	LOSS	-1.000	Kumar Rocker: 3.0 (line 3.5)
2026-06-11	K Prop	Bryan Woo	6.5	125	-	LOSS	-1.000	Bryan Woo: 4.0 (line 6.5)
2026-06-11	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Burleson	1.5	-132	-	WIN	+0.758	Alec Burleson: 3.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-11	Batter H+R+RBI	Juan Soto	1.5	-150	-	WIN	+0.667	Juan Soto: 5.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	252	56%	-6.83u	45	56%	-0.70u	121	58%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	202	59%	+13.29u	64	58%	+2.01u	2	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	133	53%	-4.85u	30	60%	+1.42u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	323	69%	-12.08u	307	69%	-15.52u	0	-	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	75	60%	+3.52u	56	55%	-1.89u	0	-	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	63	67%	+6.24u	47	70%	+7.24u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	31	84%	+5.61u	11	91%	+3.17u	0	-	23
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	27	56%	+0.90u	3	100%	+2.32u	0	-	37
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	77	42%	-13.96u	2	50%	-0.23u	1	0%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	46	36%	-11.33u	4	25%	-2.05u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	437	50%	-53.23u	30	67%	+4.41u	62	50%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	4/5	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 26 total candidate(s); season N 252, 14d N 45	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 202, 14d N 64	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 133, 14d N 30	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 23 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 11	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 87 total candidate(s); season N 27, 14d N 3	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 77, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 46, 14d N 4	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 1	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 437, 14d N 30	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 680 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 278 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 179 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 668 pitcher(s), 2882 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 511 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1043 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 872 market side(s) checked \| 872 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹ	PARTIAL	Non-blocking	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 0 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 551 \| batter bats 398 \| batter hand splits 158 \| pitcher HR splits 65 \| batter pitch-type 511 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+124	-149	+1.5 (-162)	-1.5 (+134)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-149	+124	-1.5 (+108)	+1.5 (-131)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	-107	-112	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets	7:15 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+161)	+1.5 (-197)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds	7:16 PM	-112	-108	-1.5 (+139)	+1.5 (-168)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:37 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-137	+114	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+203	-252	+1.5 (-108)	-1.5 (-111)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	-119	-102	-1.5 (+134)	+1.5 (-162)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-179)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-181	+149	-1.5 (-109)	+1.5 (-110)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Athletics	10:06 PM	+152	-185	+1.5 (-120)	-1.5 (-101)	O/U 13.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	-107	-112	-1.5 (+157)	+1.5 (-191)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

1 Grade A | 2 Grade B | 178 Review-Only | 0 Pass | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -133, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch	K Prop	Bryce Miller Over	MAR@NAT	6:46 PM	4.5	6.7	-133	FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 \| best price	48.4%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY ✅ Best Play K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 4.5 (-133) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–– ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 48.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.18K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Bryce Miller: K/9 9.3, proj 6.7K over 5.9 IP (season 6.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.3% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.214 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 33.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.5%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.8%/6 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: K L10: 3/5 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -133, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (2 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B GOOD ADD 🔬 Research Note K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-151) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!✓–– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 18.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.02K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Shane Baz: K/9 7.8, proj 4.5K over 6.1 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 20.3% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 22 PA | K% 4.5% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .618
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.8%, L7 21.1%, season 23.3%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Batter Total Bases — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B GOOD ADD 👀 Watch Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-114) diff 80.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✓––– ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 2.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.387 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/58 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter TB: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.29

▼ Review-Only / Do-Not-Bet Signals (178 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 8 | C 16)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zack Littell Over 3.5 (+106) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +106 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 41.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 45.7% / under 54.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.45K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Zack Littell: K/9 6.4, proj 5.0K over 6.5 IP (season 7.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 16.6% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.373 | top pitch: Slider (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Littell: 32 PA | K% 34.4% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .161 | OPS .381
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 18.8%, L7 19.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 34.4%/32 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/13 (38%) | Season 5/13 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5
K% trend: support +6.0 ppts (recent 20.0% vs season 14.0%, proj adj +3.0%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (-117) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 8.5 -104 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 23.3% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.98K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 12.9, proj 10.5K over 6.3 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 38.4% | put-away% 34.3% | xwOBA 0.238 | top pitch: Curveball (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 26.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.133
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.0%, L7 27.4%, season 22.9%, active roster 22.7%/8 hitters, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.80 | Season Avg 8.92
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 8.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 (+109) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 22.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.21K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.0, proj 6.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .962
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 15.1%, L7 21.2%, season 19.5%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.58
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Spencer Strider Over 5.5 (-140) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.97K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Spencer Strider: K/9 9.7, proj 6.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.7% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Changeup (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Strider: 61 PA | K% 24.6% | BB% 13.1% | AVG .170 | OPS .581
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.4%, L7 23.4%, season 22.1%, active roster 19.6%/6 hitters, BVP 24.6%/61 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.14 | Season Avg 6.14
Prop trend: K L10: 4/7 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 3.5 (-161) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -152 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 16.0% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.56K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Kyle Leahy: K/9 7.5, proj 4.1K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.7% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.390 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.3%, L7 18.8%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.6%/6 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.92
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Tatsuya Imai Over 4.5 (-132) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.67K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Tatsuya Imai: K/9 8.7, proj 5.2K over 4.7 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 34.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.0%, L7 19.3%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.9%/8 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/8 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 3.5 (-156) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -138 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.44K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Andrew Painter: K/9 7.2, proj 3.9K over 5.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 27.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.3%, L7 21.6%, season 20.8%, active roster 19.8%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.92
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Landen Roupp Over 4.5 (-160) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓✓–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.35K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Landen Roupp: K/9 9.6, proj 4.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 65 PA | K% 16.9% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .300 | OPS .837
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 65 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.6%, L7 22.4%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.8%/8 hitters, BVP 16.9%/65 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.92
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Luinder Avila Over 3.5 (-106) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -104 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 67.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.36K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Luinder Avila: K/9 7.9, proj 5.9K over 5.9 IP (season 10.4 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.0%, L7 28.4%, season 22.1% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 3/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/12 (17%) | Season 2/12 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jack Leiter Over 4.5 (-146) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -146 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 26.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.17K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -0.67)
Jack Leiter: K/9 9.3, proj 5.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Leiter: 26 PA | K% 11.5% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.2%, L7 22.0%, season 22.1%, BVP 11.5%/26 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.85
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using blended line 5 (4 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using blended line 5 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Javier Assad Under 3.5 (-144) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -144 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 19.3% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.68K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Javier Assad: K/9 6.9, proj 2.8K over 5.6 IP (season 10.7 IP/GS; recent 2.9 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 15.1% | put-away% 12.7% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (17% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 44 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .179 | OPS .487
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.8%, L7 17.9%, season 20.8%, active roster 18.8%/6 hitters, BVP 15.9%/44 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/9 (89%) | L20 8/9 (89%) | Season 8/9 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.11 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: K L10: 8/9 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 (-101) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -101 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 18.4% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.83K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Nick Lodolo: K/9 7.8, proj 3.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 13.3% | xwOBA 0.391 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 28 PA | K% 10.7% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .863
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 13.6%, L7 22.8%, season 20.5%, active roster 17.8%/6 hitters, BVP 10.7%/28 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.17 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 4/6 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Samuel Aldegheri Under 3.5 (-153) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.8% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.62K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Samuel Aldegheri: K/9 7.5, proj 2.9K over 4.2 IP (season 12.0 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/4 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 13.1% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 20.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 16.1%, L7 20.5%, season 19.0% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/4 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 103 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 (-116) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -116 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 13.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.76K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 9.9, proj 6.3K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 25.8% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 13.9%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.62
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 (-148) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -148 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 13.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.76K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Trey Yesavage: K/9 9.0, proj 6.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.6% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.265 | top pitch: Split-Finger (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, L7 22.5%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/8 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-137) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.71K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Sonny Gray: K/9 8.1, proj 4.8K over 5.4 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Sweeper: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 89 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .207 | OPS .514
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 89 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.6%, L7 18.6%, season 22.6%, active roster 19.2%/7 hitters, BVP 28.1%/89 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +6.5 ppts (recent 25.4% vs season 18.9%, proj adj +3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-134) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -128 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.44K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 6.8, proj 5.1K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.3% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Curveball (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Curveball: 43.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .261 | OPS .659
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.6%, L7 22.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 27.5%/51 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.38
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 134 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 (+104) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +104 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.35K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 6.7, proj 4.9K over 6.2 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 14.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .856
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 90 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.6%, L7 23.5%, season 23.5%, active roster 20.1%/6 hitters, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.57
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-160) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.42K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Tanner Bibee: K/9 6.6, proj 5.1K over 5.8 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Cutter (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Cutter: 22.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 211 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .247 | OPS .702
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 211 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.4%, L7 22.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 22.8%/211 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/14 (79%) | Season 11/14 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -5.3 ppts (recent 14.6% vs season 19.9%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jack Flaherty Under 5.5 (-159) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -158 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.42K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +0.33)
Jack Flaherty: K/9 11.1, proj 5.1K over 4.8 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.0% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Flaherty: 119 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .218 | OPS .653
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 119 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 14.7%, L7 22.6%, season 20.7%, BVP 24.4%/119 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5
K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 29.7% vs season 26.3%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using blended line 5.25 (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using blended line 5.25 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Nolan McLean Under 5.5 (+119) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +119 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.35K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Nolan McLean: K/9 9.5, proj 5.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 22.8% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 23.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 12 PA | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .333
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.0%, L7 18.3%, season 20.5%, active roster 20.9%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.31
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -7.2 ppts (recent 20.2% vs season 27.4%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Joe Ryan Under 6.5 (-153) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -153 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 2.8% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): PASS (over 43.0% / under 57.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.18K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Joe Ryan: K/9 10.3, proj 6.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 24 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .350 | OPS 1.258
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.5%, L7 19.3%, season 21.1%, active roster 20.5%/7 hitters, BVP 20.8%/24 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5
K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 30.7% vs season 27.3%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Griffin Canning Over 4.5 (-105) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.03K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Griffin Canning: K/9 8.6, proj 4.5K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Canning: 42 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .325 | OPS .958
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.2%, L7 22.7%, season 23.4%, BVP 14.3%/42 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.71 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 5/7 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (4 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 (+102) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 6.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (market agrees): FAIL (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.02K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Shane McClanahan: K/9 8.8, proj 6.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 48 PA | K% 27.1% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .196 | OPS .447
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.9%, L7 24.5%, season 24.8%, BVP 27.1%/48 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/12 (17%) | Season 2/12 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 6.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (4 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 11 play(s) (C 11)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 18.5 (+130) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 18.5 +135 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 22.037999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 19.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.26 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 40.7% / under 59.3%)
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 114
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.133
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 24.0%, L7 27.4%, season 22.9%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.4%, L7 11.3%, season 8.2%, BVP 0.0%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 (-160) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -160 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✓––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

Proj 20.063 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 13.9%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.8%, L7 10.2%, season 9.0% (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 18.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Nick Lodolo Under 17.5 (-111) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -111 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 15.017 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 60%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.1 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 28 PA | K% 10.7% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .863
Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 13.6%, L7 22.8%, season 20.5%, BVP 10.7%/28 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.0%, L7 8.7%, season 8.2%, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.33 | Season Avg 16.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/6 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.2% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -2.48 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.2% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -2.48 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Trey Yesavage Under 17.5 (-124) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -124 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 15.42 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 80%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.19 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 106) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, L7 22.5%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, L7 9.3%, season 11.3% (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 16.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/8 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.08 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Ryan Weathers Over 17.5 (-121) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -121 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✓––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)

Proj 19.386999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .962
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 15.1%, L7 21.2%, season 19.5%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 8.6%, L7 6.2%, season 7.5%, BVP 4.3%/47 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap +1.89 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap +1.89 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 17.5 (-166) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

Proj 19.213 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.4 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.22 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 58.3% / under 41.7%)
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 14.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .856
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.6%, L7 23.5%, season 23.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 11.7%, L7 9.2%, season 10.0%, BVP 14.4%/90 PA (adj 1.16x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.4 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/14 (79%) | Season 11/14 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 19.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -1.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Joe Ryan Over 17.5 (-172) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 18.521 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.62 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 24 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .350 | OPS 1.258
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.5%, L7 19.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 20.8%/24 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.5%, L7 10.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 4.2%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 (-117) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -117 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✓––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

Proj 18.351 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 51 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .261 | OPS .659
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.6%, L7 22.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 27.5%/51 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.2%, split 13.8%, L7 9.6%, season 10.1%, BVP 9.8%/51 PA (adj 1.17x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.20 | Season Avg 18.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Jack Leiter Under 17.5 (+102) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +103 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 16.732000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.07 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Leiter: 26 PA | K% 11.5% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.2%, L7 22.0%, season 22.1%, BVP 11.5%/26 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.8%, L7 4.1%, season 7.7%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 16.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 (-122) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 -120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 17.236 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 48.6% / under 51.4%)
Consensus (3 books): 1/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 211 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .247 | OPS .702
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.4%, L7 22.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 22.8%/211 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.6%, L7 9.7%, season 10.0%, BVP 7.6%/211 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 16.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Under 17.5 (-113) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 17.270999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.58 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 12 PA | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .333
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.0%, L7 18.3%, season 20.5% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.1%, L7 8.2%, season 8.2% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 16.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 23 play(s) (C 23)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Corey Seager Under 1.5 (-271) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (4)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-266) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.227)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Spencer Strider: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/68 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/33 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Hits: 25/35 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 54/68 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.91

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-267) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -267 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-213) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -213 | exact

Checks: ✓!!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-271) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 (-247) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.265)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.356 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 16 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 18.8% | OPS .327
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/38 (18%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 49/69 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/36 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter Hits: 27/33 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Hits: 49/69 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-252) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -252 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.271)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.230 (23 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 1/25 (4%) | L5 0/6 (0%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 43/63 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/33 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 43/63 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 (-251) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -251 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.95 (AVG 0.291)
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/43 (30%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/63 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 25/29 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter Hits: 47/63 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-272) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.218)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.232 (50 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.569
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 2/18 (11%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/69 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/38 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter Hits: 24/31 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 54/69 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-231) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -231 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.278)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.310 (30 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/36 (31%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 49/65 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 25/32 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 49/65 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-223) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.255)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.370 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/42 (31%) | L5 7/23 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 58/70 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/35 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 28/35 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 58/70 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-260) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.290)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.325 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/41 (34%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/65 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/35 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 42/65 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-223) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.257)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.243 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Zack Littell: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/65 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/33 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 21/32 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter Hits: 46/65 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ildemaro Vargas Under 1.5 (-263) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.275)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.267 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 3/25 (12%) | L5 0/8 (0%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 45/59 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/32 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter Hits: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter Hits: 45/59 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-224) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.410 (12 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 9/23 (39%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/66 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/37 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 23/29 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 48/66 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-201) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -201 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.37 (AVG 0.344)
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.196 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 71 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 17/43 (40%) | L5 11/22 (50%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/68 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/38 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter Hits: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-247) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.316)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.405 (35 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/34 (38%) | L5 5/16 (31%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/69 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/35 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 25/34 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 46/69 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 (-196) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -196 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.254)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.402 (44 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Littell contact suppression 21 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Zack Littell: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/40 (20%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 49/70 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/35 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 25/35 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 49/70 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Byron Buxton Under 1.5 (-249) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/58 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter Hits: 23/30 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-202) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -202 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.429 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 6/40 (15%) | L5 4/22 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/64 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 45/64 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-165) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.331)
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.334 (25 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/40 (40%) | L5 9/20 (45%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/62 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter Hits: 21/32 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter Hits: 42/62 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-236) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.327)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.315 (112 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/45 (36%) | L5 8/24 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/66 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 16/29 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter Hits: 23/37 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 39/66 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-266) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.338)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.366 (80 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 20/40 (50%) | L5 11/22 (50%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/61 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 16/25 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 22/36 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter Hits: 38/61 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 86 play(s) (C 86)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+102) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.548 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/65 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-111) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.672 (35 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/69 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/35 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.51 | Away Batter TB: 12/34 over 1.5 (35%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter TB: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+113) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.26
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 18/35 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter TB: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-127) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.553 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 29/64 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+147) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.553 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 29/64 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (+112) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.455 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/61 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 18/37 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+111) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.775 (23 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .552
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 26/62 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 26/62 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-129) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✓––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (25 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 30/62 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+130) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.304 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/68 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 22/35 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.57 | Day Batter TB: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+134) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.793 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jack Leiter: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 26/64 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 15/34 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+132) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.383 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 3/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/65 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/35 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter TB: 30/65 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+114) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.458 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 22/57 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/28 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (+102) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.457 (46 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/69 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+118) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.443 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/69 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/35 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-170) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.222 (23 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 41/63 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 17/30 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 41/63 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+120) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.784 (14 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 31 PA | 8/28 | HR 0 | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .712
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/69 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+117) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.360 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 21/59 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 0/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/32 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (+119) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.354 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter TB: 13/35 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+129) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.411 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 24/63 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 7/29 over 1.5 (24%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+121) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.458 (80 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 27/61 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/25 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 17/36 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (+115) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.532 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Spencer Strider: 19 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 5.3% | BB% 31.6% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/51 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter TB: 8/26 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+100) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.265 (50 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.569
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/69 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/38 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 27/69 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +119 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.385 (112 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/66 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 17/37 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 31/66 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+123) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.384 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/67 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/32 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 12/35 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 24/67 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-152) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -143 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Spencer Strider contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Spencer Strider: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/68 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/33 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 23/35 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 49/68 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-104) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/65 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 28/65 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Under 1.5 (-180) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.103 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/68 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/35 under 1.5 (80%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 18/33 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 46/68 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Under 1.5 (-184) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.234 (18 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/65 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/37 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 22/28 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 47/65 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+121) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.818 (12 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .851
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 28/66 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/31 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 28/66 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+105) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.437 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 32/65 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 32/65 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+124) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.254 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/68 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/36 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+117) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jack Leiter: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 26/65 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 26/65 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Under 1.5 (-178) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.222 (38 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/69 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/38 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter TB: 16/31 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 45/69 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+129) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/62 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 27/62 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+129) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.545 (27 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/66 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 11/33 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 25/66 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+126) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.268 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Canning contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Griffin Canning: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/70 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/38 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 31/70 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-193) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/68 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 23/34 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 45/68 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dominic Smith Under 1.5 (-198) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.538 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/69 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/35 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.77 | Away Batter TB: 20/34 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 49/69 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+130) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.214 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 22/66 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 6/33 over 1.5 (18%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter TB: 16/33 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 22/66 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (+141) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/66 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter TB: 10/36 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 26/66 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-174) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.307 (41 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/63 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 46/63 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-161) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.368 (24 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 42/64 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/36 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 18/28 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 42/64 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (+125) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.336 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.582 (14 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/65 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 27/65 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+115) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.169 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 28/64 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter TB: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+126) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.380 (115 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/69 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 16/38 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Under 1.5 (-200) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.223 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/55 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/28 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 17/27 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Under 1.5 (-185) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 47/69 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/34 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 21/35 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 47/69 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-205) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -205 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.188 (11 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 45/65 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 23/32 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 45/65 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-177) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.292 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 40/66 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/35 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 19/31 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 40/66 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-155) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.291 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/62 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 39/62 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-184) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.186 (35 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/64 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/33 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 39/64 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+122) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.344 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 30 PA | 8/29 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 3.3% | OPS .817
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 30 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/70 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/34 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 13/36 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 27/70 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-160) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.519 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/67 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/34 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 46/67 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-181) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/65 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/29 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 28/36 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 45/65 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+121) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.391 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.297 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 20/63 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 8/30 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 20/63 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+138) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+139) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (24 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sam Aldegheri contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/64 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/68 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+147) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.390 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 22/67 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/34 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 9/33 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 22/67 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-134) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -121 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.479 (12 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/66 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/37 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 43/66 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ben Williamson Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.261 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jack Leiter: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/63 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 26/63 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+100) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+134) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+105) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+103) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.204 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Leiter contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jack Leiter: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 20/61 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/27 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 11/34 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 20/61 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-201) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -193 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.630 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 40/64 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 40/64 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (+138) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+107) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+143) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Maikel Garcia Under 1.5 (-193) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (28 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Tatsuya Imai contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/62 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/32 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 23/30 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 40/62 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-157) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/69 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/35 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 21/34 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 43/69 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Under 1.5 (-178) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.291 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 37/64 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 19/33 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 37/64 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Over 1.5 (+156) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +157 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Mickey Gasper Over 1.5 (+150) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+118) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+103) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+140) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.147 (31 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/66 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 14/35 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 27/66 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+137) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/68 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/33 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 14/35 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 24/68 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Under 1.5 (-178) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Miguel Andujar Under 1.5 (-205) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Samuel Basallo Under 1.5 (-161) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge — posture note at D

▸ Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Under 13.5 13.5 (-107) edge 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Under 13.5 -102 | best price

Checks: –✓–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Felix Castro (Athletics) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 13.5
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs LHP (neutral)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Gage Jump small sample (18 IP) — stats 22% actual / 78% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ ⚠ High Total edge 42% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

▸ F5 Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 8.0 8.0 (-120) edge 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 8 -120 | exact

Checks: –✓–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Felix Castro (Athletics) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 8.0
F5 total source: BetOnline (DK unavailable)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 4.28
Away SP TBD
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)

⚠ ⚠ High F5 edge 38% (≥18%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Checks: –✓!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (24)

[OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Juan Nuñez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Jean Henriquez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Dean Kremer (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Camden Yards (PITCHER)
Shane Baz xFIP 4.35
Griffin Canning xFIP 4.13
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 100)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 50% (team 92)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 0.98
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shane Baz (RHP)
Away SP: Griffin Canning (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-146) edge 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals (F5) | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | exact

Checks: –✓!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ender Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tyson Guerrero (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Luinder Avila xFIP 4.34
Tatsuya Imai xFIP 4.35
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 97)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)
Away SP: Tatsuya Imai (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ NRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+102) edge 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +102

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Joe Ryan: xFIP 3.62, K% 28.3%, BB% 5.4%, xwOBA 0.278, whiff% 24.8% | 1st inn full (57 PA): xwOBA 0.313, K% 29.8%, BB% 7.0%, whiff% 24.8%
Kyle Leahy: xFIP 4.30, K% 18.6%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.390, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn full (49 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 26.5%, BB% 10.2%, whiff% 25.0%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.84
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Joe Ryan: 71% (14 starts) | Kyle Leahy: 83% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 18-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.307 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.251 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge +14.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge -5.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Braxton Ashcraft: xFIP 3.21, K% 26.7%, BB% 5.3%, xwOBA 0.273, whiff% 27.7% | 1st inn full (49 PA): xwOBA 0.228, K% 34.7%, BB% 6.1%, whiff% 34.8%
Sandy Alcantara: xFIP 4.22, K% 17.7%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 20.7% | 1st inn full (56 PA): xwOBA 0.301, K% 25.0%, BB% 1.8%, whiff% 20.2%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.03 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.51
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Braxton Ashcraft: 92% (13 starts) | Sandy Alcantara: 79% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.330 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +12.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -3.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Landen Roupp: xFIP 3.49, K% 24.6%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.288, whiff% 25.0% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.223, K% 34.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 26.9%
Javier Assad: xFIP 4.31, K% 18.3%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.331, whiff% 15.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (10 PA): xwOBA 0.341, K% 30.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 17.6%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 101)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.17, SO/G 0.48 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.16
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Landen Roupp: 85% (13 starts)
All-game streak: 38-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 20-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.318 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +5.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +3.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-102) edge 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Zack Littell: xFIP 5.04, K% 17.2%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.373, whiff% 16.6% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.299, K% 25.0%, BB% 3.1%, whiff% 18.2%
Bryce Miller: xFIP 3.78, K% 26.4%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.214, whiff% 29.3% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (13 PA): xwOBA 0.118, K% 30.8%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 17.1%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 103)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.89
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Zack Littell: 78% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 35-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.312 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +4.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +4.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+170) edge 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +170

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Gage Jump: xFIP 4.28, K% 20.2%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.294, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (11 PA): xwOBA 0.181, K% 27.3%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 27.3%
Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.61, SO/G 1.00 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.91
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.318 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds +170 | implied 37.0% | model edge +1.9%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -210 | implied 67.7% | model edge +0.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.58, K% 24.6%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.290, whiff% 24.1% | 1st inn full (53 PA): xwOBA 0.281, K% 30.2%, BB% 9.4%, whiff% 17.6%
Spencer Strider: xFIP 4.18, K% 26.0%, BB% 10.5%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 32.7% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.287, K% 30.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 19.3%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 93)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.89
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Nolan McLean: 69% (13 starts) | Spencer Strider: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 32-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.308 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +1.9%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -110 | implied 52.4% | model edge +6.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+104) edge -4.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +104

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Shane Baz: xFIP 4.35, K% 20.4%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 20.3% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.418, K% 17.2%, BB% 13.8%, whiff% 15.1%
Griffin Canning: xFIP 4.13, K% 22.4%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.5% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.366, K% 21.9%, BB% 21.9%, whiff% 22.6%
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 98 (team avg 92)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.83
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Shane Baz: 62% (13 starts) | Griffin Canning: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 40-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.278 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -4.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +13.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge -4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.99, K% 21.9%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn full (46 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 19.6%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 21.7%
Jack Leiter: xFIP 4.07, K% 23.5%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 26.1% | 1st inn full (57 PA): xwOBA 0.356, K% 24.6%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 25.5%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 96)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.80
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Sonny Gray: 55% (11 starts) | Jack Leiter: 69% (13 starts)
All-game streak: 31-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.264 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -4.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +13.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-113) edge -5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Sam Aldegheri: xFIP 4.42, K% 19.5%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.314, whiff% 23.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (7 PA): xwOBA 0.460, K% 0.0%, BB% 28.6%, whiff% 29.4%
Shane McClanahan: xFIP 3.89, K% 23.6%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.301, whiff% 26.9% | 1st inn full (44 PA): xwOBA 0.211, K% 34.1%, BB% 6.8%, whiff% 30.8%
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 98)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.62, SO/G 1.27 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.76
Park: Angel Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 92% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 36-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 19-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.321 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.232 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -5.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +14.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-130) edge -8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Jacob Misiorowski: xFIP 2.26, K% 37.6%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.238, whiff% 38.4% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.220, K% 48.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 35.8%
Andrew Painter: xFIP 4.54, K% 18.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.342, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.416, K% 14.0%, BB% 12.0%, whiff% 18.9%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 101)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.59, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.07
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Jacob Misiorowski: 85% (13 starts) | Andrew Painter: 82% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 35-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.296 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge -8.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +16.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+102) edge -8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +102

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Luinder Avila: xFIP 4.34, K% 21.0%, BB% 10.7%, xwOBA 0.325, whiff% 23.9% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (15 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 6.7%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 15.6%
Tatsuya Imai: xFIP 4.35, K% 22.6%, BB% 11.4%, xwOBA 0.342, whiff% 29.0% | 1st inn full (33 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 21.2%, BB% 27.3%, whiff% 27.1%
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.84 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
Park: Kauffman Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.98)
NRFI rate: Tatsuya Imai: 88% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 36-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 21-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch) | Kansas City Royals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -8.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +17.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-106) edge -9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.81, K% 18.0%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.372, whiff% 21.2% | 1st inn full (51 PA): xwOBA 0.360, K% 19.6%, BB% 3.9%, whiff% 18.3%
Roki Sasaki: xFIP 3.97, K% 26.0%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 29.6% | 1st inn full (45 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 22.2%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 25.3%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 102)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 108)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.61, SO/G 1.15 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 0.88
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Anthony Kay: 55% (11 starts) | Roki Sasaki: 91% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 29-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.259 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -9.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +18.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-115) edge -14.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.34, K% 27.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 27.9% | 1st inn full (55 PA): xwOBA 0.423, K% 23.6%, BB% 9.1%, whiff% 26.6%
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 98)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 128 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.51 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.93
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Ryan Weathers: 67% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 35-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 19-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.254 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge -14.6%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +14.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-125) edge -15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Tanner Bibee: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.1%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.393, K% 17.2%, BB% 3.5%, whiff% 20.9%
Jack Flaherty: xFIP 4.36, K% 26.9%, BB% 10.6%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 27.0% | 1st inn full (60 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 31.7%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 22.4%
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 96)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.54 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 0.86
Park: Progressive Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Tanner Bibee: 64% (14 starts) | Jack Flaherty: 79% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.359 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -15.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +24.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+100) edge -20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Nick Lodolo: xFIP 4.51, K% 19.7%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.391, whiff% 22.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.318, K% 28.0%, BB% 12.0%, whiff% 21.4%
Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.23, K% 18.5%, BB% 8.4%, xwOBA 0.336, whiff% 19.3% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.417, K% 20.7%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 16.7%
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.80
Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
NRFI rate: Nick Lodolo: 67% (6 starts) | Eduardo Rodriguez: 54% (13 starts)
All-game streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.272 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -20.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +28.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-128) edge 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Nick Lodolo: xFIP 4.51, K% 19.7%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.391, whiff% 22.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (25 PA): xwOBA 0.318, K% 28.0%, BB% 12.0%, whiff% 21.4%
Eduardo Rodriguez: xFIP 4.23, K% 18.5%, BB% 8.4%, xwOBA 0.336, whiff% 19.3% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.417, K% 20.7%, BB% 12.1%, whiff% 16.7%
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.80
Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
NRFI rate: Nick Lodolo: 67% (6 starts) | Eduardo Rodriguez: 54% (13 starts)
All-game streak: 33-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.272 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -20.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +28.9%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 29% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-102) edge 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Tanner Bibee: xFIP 4.20, K% 18.1%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 26.2% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.393, K% 17.2%, BB% 3.5%, whiff% 20.9%
Jack Flaherty: xFIP 4.36, K% 26.9%, BB% 10.6%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 27.0% | 1st inn full (60 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 31.7%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 22.4%
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 96)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.54 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 0.86
Park: Progressive Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Tanner Bibee: 64% (14 starts) | Jack Flaherty: 79% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.359 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -15.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +24.6%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 25% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.81, K% 18.0%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.372, whiff% 21.2% | 1st inn full (51 PA): xwOBA 0.360, K% 19.6%, BB% 3.9%, whiff% 18.3%
Roki Sasaki: xFIP 3.97, K% 26.0%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 29.6% | 1st inn full (45 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 22.2%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 25.3%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 102)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 108)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.61, SO/G 1.15 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 0.88
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Anthony Kay: 55% (11 starts) | Roki Sasaki: 91% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 29-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.259 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -9.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +18.4%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-130) edge 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Luinder Avila: xFIP 4.34, K% 21.0%, BB% 10.7%, xwOBA 0.325, whiff% 23.9% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (15 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 6.7%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 15.6%
Tatsuya Imai: xFIP 4.35, K% 22.6%, BB% 11.4%, xwOBA 0.342, whiff% 29.0% | 1st inn full (33 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 21.2%, BB% 27.3%, whiff% 27.1%
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.84 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
Park: Kauffman Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.98)
NRFI rate: Tatsuya Imai: 88% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 36-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 21-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch) | Kansas City Royals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -8.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +17.8%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Jacob Misiorowski: xFIP 2.26, K% 37.6%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.238, whiff% 38.4% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.220, K% 48.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 35.8%
Andrew Painter: xFIP 4.54, K% 18.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.342, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.416, K% 14.0%, BB% 12.0%, whiff% 18.9%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 101)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.59, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.07
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Jacob Misiorowski: 85% (13 starts) | Andrew Painter: 82% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 35-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.296 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge -8.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +16.8%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-115) edge 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:37 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.34, K% 27.0%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 27.9% | 1st inn full (55 PA): xwOBA 0.423, K% 23.6%, BB% 9.1%, whiff% 26.6%
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 98)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 128 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.51 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.93
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Ryan Weathers: 67% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 35-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 19-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.254 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge -14.6%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +14.6%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-113) edge 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Sam Aldegheri: xFIP 4.42, K% 19.5%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.314, whiff% 23.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (7 PA): xwOBA 0.460, K% 0.0%, BB% 28.6%, whiff% 29.4%
Shane McClanahan: xFIP 3.89, K% 23.6%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.301, whiff% 26.9% | 1st inn full (44 PA): xwOBA 0.211, K% 34.1%, BB% 6.8%, whiff% 30.8%
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 98)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.62, SO/G 1.27 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.76
Park: Angel Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 92% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 36-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 19-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.321 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.232 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -5.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +14.6%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.99, K% 21.9%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn full (46 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 19.6%, BB% 4.3%, whiff% 21.7%
Jack Leiter: xFIP 4.07, K% 23.5%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 26.1% | 1st inn full (57 PA): xwOBA 0.356, K% 24.6%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 25.5%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 96)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.80
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Sonny Gray: 55% (11 starts) | Jack Leiter: 69% (13 starts)
All-game streak: 31-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.264 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -4.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +13.5%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-132) edge 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Shane Baz: xFIP 4.35, K% 20.4%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 20.3% | 1st inn full (58 PA): xwOBA 0.418, K% 17.2%, BB% 13.8%, whiff% 15.1%
Griffin Canning: xFIP 4.13, K% 22.4%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.5% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.366, K% 21.9%, BB% 21.9%, whiff% 22.6%
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 98 (team avg 92)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.83
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Shane Baz: 62% (13 starts) | Griffin Canning: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 40-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.278 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -4.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +13.5%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-110) edge 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -110

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.58, K% 24.6%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.290, whiff% 24.1% | 1st inn full (53 PA): xwOBA 0.281, K% 30.2%, BB% 9.4%, whiff% 17.6%
Spencer Strider: xFIP 4.18, K% 26.0%, BB% 10.5%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 32.7% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.287, K% 30.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 19.3%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 93)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.89
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Nolan McLean: 69% (13 starts) | Spencer Strider: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 32-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.308 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +1.9%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -110 | implied 52.4% | model edge +6.2%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-125) edge 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Zack Littell: xFIP 5.04, K% 17.2%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.373, whiff% 16.6% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.299, K% 25.0%, BB% 3.1%, whiff% 18.2%
Bryce Miller: xFIP 3.78, K% 26.4%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.214, whiff% 29.3% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (13 PA): xwOBA 0.118, K% 30.8%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 17.1%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 103)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.89
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Zack Littell: 78% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 35-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 15-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.312 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +4.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +4.5%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Landen Roupp: xFIP 3.49, K% 24.6%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.288, whiff% 25.0% | 1st inn full (50 PA): xwOBA 0.223, K% 34.0%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 26.9%
Javier Assad: xFIP 4.31, K% 18.3%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.331, whiff% 15.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (10 PA): xwOBA 0.341, K% 30.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 17.6%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 101)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.17, SO/G 0.48 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.16
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Landen Roupp: 85% (13 starts)
All-game streak: 38-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 20-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.318 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +5.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +3.0%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-210) edge 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -210

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Gage Jump: xFIP 4.28, K% 20.2%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.294, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (11 PA): xwOBA 0.181, K% 27.3%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 27.3%
Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.61, SO/G 1.00 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.91
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.318 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds +170 | implied 37.0% | model edge +1.9%
YRFI WILLIAMHILL_US odds -210 | implied 67.7% | model edge +0.2%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge -3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Braxton Ashcraft: xFIP 3.21, K% 26.7%, BB% 5.3%, xwOBA 0.273, whiff% 27.7% | 1st inn full (49 PA): xwOBA 0.228, K% 34.7%, BB% 6.1%, whiff% 34.8%
Sandy Alcantara: xFIP 4.22, K% 17.7%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 20.7% | 1st inn full (56 PA): xwOBA 0.301, K% 25.0%, BB% 1.8%, whiff% 20.2%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 102)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 1.03 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.51
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Braxton Ashcraft: 92% (13 starts) | Sandy Alcantara: 79% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.330 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +12.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -3.3%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-130) edge -5.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Joe Ryan: xFIP 3.62, K% 28.3%, BB% 5.4%, xwOBA 0.278, whiff% 24.8% | 1st inn full (57 PA): xwOBA 0.313, K% 29.8%, BB% 7.0%, whiff% 24.8%
Kyle Leahy: xFIP 4.30, K% 18.6%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.390, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn full (49 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 26.5%, BB% 10.2%, whiff% 25.0%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.84
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Joe Ryan: 71% (14 starts) | Kyle Leahy: 83% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 18-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.307 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.251 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge +14.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge -5.7%

GAME BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Colorado Rockies @ Athletics	10:06 PM	Total	Under 13.5	-107	49.5%	91.5%	+42.0%	$+77.01	10	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (1 play(s))

C Under 13.5 — Colorado Rockies @ Athletics (Total) +42.0%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Felix Castro (Athletics) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 13.5
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs LHP (neutral)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Gage Jump small sample (18 IP) — stats 22% actual / 78% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Colorado Rockies @ Athletics (F5)	10:06 PM	F5 Total	Under 8.0	-120	52.2%	89.9%	+37.7%	$+64.78	1	Bet on DK
C	San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles (F5)	7:06 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-140	54.8%	67.0%	+12.2%	$+14.87	2	Bet on DK
C	Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals (F5)	8:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-146	55.7%	63.9%	+8.2%	$+7.70	2	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (3 play(s))

C Under 8.0 — Colorado Rockies @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +37.7%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Felix Castro (Athletics) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 8.0
F5 total source: BetOnline (DK unavailable)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 4.28
Away SP TBD
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)

C Under 5.5 — San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) (F5 Total) +12.2%

[OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Juan Nuñez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Jean Henriquez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Dean Kremer (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Camden Yards (PITCHER)
Shane Baz xFIP 4.35
Griffin Canning xFIP 4.13
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 100)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 50% (team 92)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 0.98
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shane Baz (RHP)
Away SP: Griffin Canning (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals (F5) (F5 Total) +8.2%

[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ender Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tyson Guerrero (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Luinder Avila xFIP 4.34
Tatsuya Imai xFIP 4.35
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 97)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)
Away SP: Tatsuya Imai (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (15 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Braxton Ashcraft / Sandy Alcantara	5.8 / 7.7	4.2 / 7.7	+12.3%	Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	Joe Ryan / Kyle Leahy	5.6 / 7.7	4.4 / 7.7	+14.7%	Score 5.6 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	Landen Roupp / Javier Assad	5.4 / 7.7	4.6 / 7.7	+5.8%	Score 5.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 5.8% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (10 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets	7:15 PM	Nolan McLean / Spencer Strider	4.9 / 7.7	5.1 / 7.7	+1.9%	Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 1.9% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Zack Littell / Bryce Miller	4.8 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	+4.5%	Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 4.5% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (13 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Sonny Gray / Jack Leiter	4.3 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	-4.5%	Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.5% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Jacob Misiorowski / Andrew Painter	4.2 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-8.3%	Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.3% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Sam Aldegheri / Shane McClanahan	4.1 / 7.7	5.9 / 7.7	-5.7%	Score 4.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -5.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (7 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	Shane Baz / Griffin Canning	3.9 / 7.7	6.1 / 7.7	-4.4%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.4% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Anthony Kay / Roki Sasaki	3.7 / 7.7	6.3 / 7.7	-9.4%	Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -9.4% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	Luinder Avila / Tatsuya Imai	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-8.8%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (15 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	Tanner Bibee / Jack Flaherty	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-15.7%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -15.7% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Colorado Rockies @ Athletics	10:06 PM	Gage Jump / TBD ⚠ Away SP	3.4 / 7.7	5.9 / 7.7	+1.9%	Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge 1.9% < 8% required Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data partial (11 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:37 PM	TBD / Ryan Weathers ⚠ Home SP	3.4 / 7.7	5.9 / 7.7	-14.6%	Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -14.6% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds	7:16 PM	Nick Lodolo / Eduardo Rodriguez	2.4 / 7.7	7.6 / 7.7	-20.0%	Score 2.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -20.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (25 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 0 batter line(s)
Market discovery: no extra HR markets returned
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

No batter HR chances clear the watchlist tier.

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds	7:16 PM	100	89.3%	-839	-	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	100	88.0%	-737	-	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	100	87.0%	-669	-	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	100	87.0%	-667	-	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	99	86.8%	-657	-	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:37 PM	99	86.2%	-625	-	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	98	86.0%	-614	-	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 14.0%	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	92	85.0%	-567	-	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	92	84.9%	-564	-	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| Wind 10 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect	-
Watchlist	St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	92	84.9%	-563	-	Target Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets	7:15 PM	92	84.8%	-557	-	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	91	83.6%	-511	-	PNC Park HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	90	83.1%	-493	-	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	90	82.9%	-484	-	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98	-
Watchlist	Colorado Rockies @ Athletics	10:06 PM	90	82.4%	-469	-	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00	-

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Colorado Rockies @ Athletics	10:06 PM	Gage Jump	None	1.00	17.6%	48.1%	—	—
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Sam Aldegheri	Shane McClanahan	0.98	17.1%	47.3%	—	—
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	Landen Roupp	Javier Assad	0.82	16.9%	46.9%	—	—
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Braxton Ashcraft	Sandy Alcantara	0.96	16.4%	46.0%	—	—
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets	7:15 PM	Nolan McLean	Spencer Strider	0.93	15.2%	43.9%	—	—
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	Joe Ryan	Kyle Leahy	0.95	15.1%	43.6%	—	—
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Jacob Misiorowski	Andrew Painter	1.08	15.1%	43.6%	—	—
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	Luinder Avila	Tatsuya Imai	0.93	15.0%	43.4%	—	—
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Sonny Gray	Jack Leiter	0.95	14.0%	41.5%	—	—
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:37 PM	None	Ryan Weathers	0.96	13.8%	41.1%	—	—
San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	Shane Baz	Griffin Canning	1.00	13.2%	40.0%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Zack Littell	Bryce Miller	1.02	13.0%	39.6%	—	—
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	Tanner Bibee	Jack Flaherty	0.95	13.0%	39.5%	—	—
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Anthony Kay	Roki Sasaki	1.00	12.0%	37.3%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds	7:16 PM	Nick Lodolo	Eduardo Rodriguez	1.15	10.7%	34.5%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies	85.4	94.8	88.5	5	Curveball (48% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 38.4%, put-away 34.3%, xwOBA 0.238, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals	77.6	62.7	100.0	7	Slider (34% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.214, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Spencer Strider	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	68.1	70.9	69.5	4	Changeup (52% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 32.7%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins	65.9	64.9	71.0	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 25.8%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals	58.4	52.8	68.5	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs	58.3	55.9	63.5	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	56.2	54.8	62.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox	54.8	62.6	46.5	3	Slider (43% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels	54.8	59.1	57.0	4	Changeup (34% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	54.2	63.3	47.0	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Colorado Rockies	50.5	40.9	60.5	5	Slider (24% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Canning	San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles	49.1	56.9	42.5	7	Slider (38% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	49.1	56.5	40.5	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Leiter	Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox	48.9	57.8	40.5	6	Slider (35% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros	47.8	48.4	45.0	5	Slider (39% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	46.8	53.9	41.0	6	Cutter (37% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	46.5	41.9	49.0	7	Changeup (31% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sam Aldegheri	Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays	46.0	43.2	50.5	4	Changeup (40% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tatsuya Imai	Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals	46.0	57.4	36.5	5	Slider (37% whiff, 45% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers	42.1	43.5	36.5	6	Slider (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres	41.3	42.0	41.0	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers	41.3	41.5	41.0	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds	38.7	40.6	39.5	5	Curveball (24% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Javier Assad	Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants	33.8	26.5	42.0	7	4-Seam Fastball (17% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 15.1%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	31.7	38.6	21.5	6	Sweeper (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.372, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks	31.7	41.5	12.0	4	Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.391, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins	29.3	44.0	12.5	6	Changeup (43% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.390, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Zack Littell	Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners	29.1	33.2	21.0	5	Slider (22% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.373, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds	L	18.5%	6.0	6.0	6.0	101	deep	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Colorado Rockies	L	20.2%	6.0	6.0	5.9	101	deep	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Spencer Strider	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	R	26.0%	5.2	5.1	5.3	87	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres	R	20.4%	6.4	5.9	6.0	107	deep	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers	R	21.9%	5.6	5.1	5.2	94	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Javier Assad	Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants	R	18.3%	2.9	10.7	6.4	49	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.9 IP/start
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	18.0%	5.2	5.5	5.5	87	normal	full	21.50	78.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	19.7%	5.3	5.4	5.5	89	normal	full	12.00	88.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	R	18.1%	6.2	5.5	5.6	104	deep	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	R	26.9%	4.9	4.4	4.5	82	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Tatsuya Imai	Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals	R	22.6%	5.0	4.3	4.7	84	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros	R	21.0%	3.6	10.4	6.4	60	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start
Sam Aldegheri	Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	19.5%	2.8	12.0	5.7	47	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox	R	26.0%	5.8	5.3	6.0	97	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	17.7%	6.2	6.4	6.3	104	deep	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	37.6%	6.8	6.0	6.2	114	deep	full	88.50	11.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	28.3%	6.2	5.4	6.0	104	deep	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	R	24.6%	5.3	5.5	5.5	89	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	27.0%	6.1	5.8	6.0	102	deep	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	18.0%	4.9	5.3	5.2	82	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins	R	26.7%	6.1	6.1	6.1	102	deep	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Griffin Canning	San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles	R	22.4%	4.5	4.6	4.9	76	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs	R	24.6%	5.1	5.3	5.3	86	short	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals	R	26.4%	5.3	6.8	6.0	89	normal	full	100.00	0.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins	R	18.6%	4.8	4.9	4.9	80	short	full	12.50	87.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels	L	23.6%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Jack Leiter	Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox	R	23.5%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zack Littell	Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners	R	17.2%	5.6	7.1	6.7	94	normal	full	21.00	79.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers	18.5	22.0	3.5	19.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) \| books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
Braxton Ashcraft	Braxton Ashcraft Over	Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	20.1	2.6	14.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min
Nick Lodolo	Nick Lodolo Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	15.0	-2.5	14.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.2% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -2.48 <= 3 min
Trey Yesavage	Trey Yesavage Under	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	15.4	-2.1	11.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.08 <= 3 min
Ryan Weathers	Ryan Weathers Over	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	19.4	1.9	10.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap +1.89 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	19.2	1.7	9.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books)
Joe Ryan	Joe Ryan Over	St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	18.5	1.0	5.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	18.4	0.8	4.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books)
Jack Leiter	Jack Leiter Under	Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books)
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Under	Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.6	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books)
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Under	Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books)

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs blended sportsbook line when available; selected line fallback	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	Blended market direction + consensus lean % across available books	Blended market agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 1 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Final Signals

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes