MLB Bets 2026-06-05

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	236W–158L–0P	60%	+6.45 u	Last 14 days • 394 settled
Grade A	18W–16L–0P	53%	-2.91 u
Grade B	218W–142L–0P	61%	+9.37 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	740W–640L–7P	54%	-67.79 u	All-time • 1387 settled
Grade A	128W–99L–0P	56%	-3.63 u
Grade B	612W–541L–7P	53%	-64.16 u

16 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	K Prop	Brady Singer	3.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	K Prop	Brandon Sproat	4.5	-106	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	K Prop	Bryan Woo	5.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	K Prop	Edward Cabrera	4.5	105	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	K Prop	Merrill Kelly	3.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	K Prop	Michael Wacha	4.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	Run Line	Detroit Tigers	+1.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	Run Line	San Francisco Giants	+1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-05	Run Line	Texas Rangers	+1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-06-04	K Prop	Brayan Bello	3.5	-168	-	WIN	+0.595	Brayan Bello: 4.0 (line 3.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Casey Schmitt	1.5	-113	-	WIN	+0.885	Casey Schmitt: 5.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Luis Arraez	1.5	-125	-	WIN	+0.800	Luis Arraez: 4.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04	Batter Walks	Brice Turang	0.5	-112	-	LOSS	-1.000	Brice Turang: 0.0 (line 0.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Brooks Lee	1.5	-132	-	LOSS	-1.000	Brooks Lee: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04	Batter Walks	Pedro Ramirez	0.5	246	-	LOSS	-1.000	Pedro Ramírez: 0.0 (line 0.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Nick Kurtz	1.5	-136	-	LOSS	-1.000	Nick Kurtz: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Ian Happ	1.5	-140	-	WIN	+0.714	Ian Happ: 7.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Michael Busch	1.5	-144	-	WIN	+0.694	Michael Busch: 2.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Alex Bregman	1.5	-133	-	WIN	+0.752	Alex Bregman: 2.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Nico Hoerner	1.5	-125	-	LOSS	-1.000	Nico Hoerner: 1.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Tyler Soderstrom	1.5	-120	-	WIN	+0.833	Tyler Soderstrom: 3.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Michael Conforto	1.5	-129	-	LOSS	-1.000	Michael Conforto: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-06-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Henry Bolte	1.5	-143	-	WIN	+0.699	Henry Bolte: 4.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	242	56%	-4.86u	45	64%	+4.81u	113	59%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	159	61%	+15.88u	42	60%	+3.68u	1	100%
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	119	53%	-4.56u	39	51%	-4.60u	39	64%
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	73	64%	-0.15u	73	64%	-0.15u	2	0%
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	40	70%	+9.04u	40	70%	+9.04u	0	-
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	49%	-3.68u	15	53%	-0.45u	0	-
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	30	77%	+2.37u	16	69%	-0.46u	0	-
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	24	54%	-2.83u	24	54%	-2.83u	0	-
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	76	42%	-13.08u	1	100%	+0.66u	1	0%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	43	39%	-8.42u	1	100%	+0.86u	1	100%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	497	50%	-58.72u	90	56%	-1.08u	70	49%

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 candidate(s); season N 242, 14d N 45	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 candidate(s); season N 159, 14d N 42	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 candidate(s); season N 119, 14d N 39	Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 16	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 15	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 76, 14d N 1	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 43, 14d N 1	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 1	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s); season N 497, 14d N 90	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	AI review: API error -- Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, read the docs: https://platform.openai.com/docs/guides/error-codes/api-errors.', 'type
✓	READY	Available	Savant: 662 pitcher(s) with metrics
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Savant 1st-inning stats unavailable — NRFI model using season stats only
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Team NRFI streaks unavailable
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 164 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 650 pitcher(s), 2802 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 495 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 1270 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Athletics, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, Cleveland Guardians, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Athletics, Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 880 market side(s) checked \| 880 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹ	PARTIAL	Non-blocking	F5: 14 game(s) fetched \| 0 with ML odds \| 14 with total odds \| 6 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 535 \| batter bats 397 \| batter hand splits 166 \| pitcher HR splits 70 \| batter pitch-type 495 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 11.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+153	-186	+1.5 (-132)	-1.5 (+110)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+131)	+1.5 (-158)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-144)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+143)	+1.5 (-174)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	+114	-137	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+123)	+1.5 (-149)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	8:16 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+155)	+1.5 (-188)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-157	+130	-1.5 (-101)	+1.5 (-120)	O/U 11.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+108	-131	+1.5 (-207)	-1.5 (+169)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+163	-199	+1.5 (-126)	-1.5 (+104)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

0 Grade A | 2 Grade B | 196 Derisk/Monitor | 0 Pass | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

No Grade A plays today.

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (2 play(s))

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-143) edge 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -138 | best price

Checks: –!✓✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (24)

[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Matthew Boyd (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Jose Romero (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Erick Hernandez (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Edward Cabrera (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Cade Horton (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+13.77/$100
✓ Cover prob 66.9% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 10.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 3/5
✓ Odds -143 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Robbie Ray (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — Texas Rangers +1.5 1.5 (-149) edge 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Texas Rangers 1.5 -140 | best price

Checks: –!✓✓–✓ ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (26)

[INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: -0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+13.02/$100
✓ Cover prob 67.6% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 10.5% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 3 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -149 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs LHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 97)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Parker Messick elite xFIP (3.36)

▼ Derisk / Monitor Plays (196 play(s))

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Brady Singer Over 3.5 (-164) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -164 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 41.7% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 58.7% / under 41.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.46K vs 1.0 min): PASS
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.0
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.389 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 57 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .208 | OPS .676
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.5%/8 hitters, BVP 26.3%/57 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.27
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Michael Wacha Over 4.5 (-141) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -141 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 39.9% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.79K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Michael Wacha: K/9 8.0, proj 6.3K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 24.3% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 101 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .215 | OPS .653
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 101 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 20.6%, L7 23.7%, season 23.0%, BVP 22.8%/101 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 10/12 (83%) | Season 10/12 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.42
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 (-164) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -164 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 33.5% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.17K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.0, proj 4.7K over 6.1 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 13.3% | xwOBA 0.407 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 35.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 28 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .893
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.7%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, active roster 20.6%/6 hitters, BVP 25.0%/28 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.67 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 5/9 over 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Brandon Sproat Over 4.5 (-106) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -106 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 28.6% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.29K vs 1.0 min): PASS
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 9.5
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 42.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Sproat: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.7%, L7 21.7%, season 23.9%, active roster 23.6%/7 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.6% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.73
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Edward Cabrera Over 4.5 (+105) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 24.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.08K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Edward Cabrera: K/9 8.6, proj 5.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.0% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Slider (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Slider: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Edward Cabrera: 42 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .250 | OPS .710
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.9%, L7 20.0%, season 20.9%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 28.6%/42 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.70
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-122) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -114 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 20.0% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 48.2% / under 51.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.10K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Sonny Gray: K/9 8.3, proj 4.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 14.1% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 24.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 117 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .248 | OPS .688
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 117 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.4%, L7 22.3%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.6%/117 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.10
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +6.3 ppts (recent 26.2% vs season 19.9%)

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 (-108) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.15K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 9.9, proj 7.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.3% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Sweeper (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 40.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .160 | OPS .440
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 26.2%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 126 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Brandon Young Over 3.5 (-126) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -126 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 16.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.58K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Brandon Young: K/9 7.8, proj 4.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 21.7% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 49 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .775
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.9%, L7 18.0%, season 19.3%, BVP 18.4%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.12 | Season Avg 4.12
Prop trend: K L10: 5/8 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Martin Perez Over 4.5 (+104) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +104 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 14.2% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.64K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Martin Perez: K/9 8.3, proj 5.1K over 5.7 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS, recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 39 PA | K% 20.5% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .323 | OPS .913
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 26.7%, L7 22.3%, season 23.5%, active roster 22.7%/8 hitters, BVP 20.5%/39 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
K% trend: support +4.9 ppts (recent 25.4% vs season 20.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Christian Scott Over 4.5 (-152) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -152 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.56K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -1.00)
Christian Scott: K/9 10.2, proj 5.1K over 4.7 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS, recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.0%, L7 26.0%, season 23.6%, active roster 21.5%/6 hitters (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.43 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 6/7 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 (-114) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -114 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.41K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Ryan Feltner: K/9 7.2, proj 3.9K over 4.8 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS, recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.385 | top pitch: Changeup (56% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 16.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 95 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .241 | OPS .605
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 95 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.7%, L7 18.2%, season 20.6%, active roster 19.4%/6 hitters, BVP 24.2%/95 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.17 | Season Avg 3.17
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 4.5 (-116) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -116 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.52K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Kyle Leahy: K/9 8.1, proj 5.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.383 | top pitch: Changeup (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 41.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .293 | OPS .724
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.4%, L7 27.1%, season 24.7%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.18
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 3.5 (-129) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -128 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 11.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.39K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Kumar Rocker: K/9 7.3, proj 3.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Slider: 20.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG 1.000 | OPS 2.000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 14.1%, L7 24.1%, season 20.5% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 96 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Robbie Ray Under 5.5 (-133) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.9% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.49K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Robbie Ray: K/9 8.2, proj 5.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 60 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .189 | OPS .623
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.3%, L7 22.8%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 18.3%/60 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Ryan Weathers Over 6.5 (+106) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +122 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.56K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.3, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Sweeper (46% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.353
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.0%, season 22.0%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.82
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Anthony Kay Over 4.5 (+115) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +116 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.39K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.2, proj 4.9K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 12.7% | xwOBA 0.368 | top pitch: Sweeper (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Sweeper: 35.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .154 | OPS .712
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.7%, L7 25.1%, season 22.4%, active roster 22.5%/8 hitters, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 (-101) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 7.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.39K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Zebby Matthews: K/9 8.9, proj 5.9K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, recent 5.8 IP/4 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 41.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .342 | OPS .901
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.3%, L7 21.2%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.1%/8 hitters, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/4 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 (-160) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -160 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 6.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.36K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Trey Yesavage: K/9 9.3, proj 5.9K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.8% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.252 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Trey Yesavage: 21 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .154 | OPS .604
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 23.6%, L7 18.5%, season 23.5%, BVP 19.1%/21 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.57 | Season Avg 5.57
Prop trend: K L10: 5/7 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Foster Griffin Over 4.5 (-110) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -110 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.24K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Foster Griffin: K/9 9.4, proj 4.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 13.5%, L7 19.5%, season 20.3% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.42
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.2 ppts (recent 27.4% vs season 23.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 125 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Mitch Keller Under 4.5 (-111) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!!–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 50.3% / under 49.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.21K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Mitch Keller: K/9 6.9, proj 4.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Mitch Keller: 122 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .288 | OPS .875
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 122 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.6%, L7 16.0%, season 20.5%, active roster 19.7%/6 hitters, BVP 22.9%/122 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.25
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 (+106) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +106 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 54.3% / under 45.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.20K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 8.1, proj 4.3K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Changeup (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .308 | OPS .723
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 56 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.4%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Framber Valdez Under 4.5 (+121) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 +124 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.16K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Framber Valdez: K/9 7.4, proj 4.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 180 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .248 | OPS .727
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 180 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.7%, L7 20.9%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.8%/180 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Parker Messick Over 6.5 (+110) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -162 | alt rescue

Checks: ✓✗!✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 1.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.11K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +1.00)
Parker Messick: K/9 9.7, proj 6.6K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Changeup (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.1%, L7 22.8%, season 23.0%, active roster 20.9%/6 hitters (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.17
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Michael King Over 5.5 (-110) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗✓–– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 0.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.00K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Michael King: K/9 8.6, proj 5.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.9% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 62 PA | K% 21.0% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .283 | OPS .821
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.3%, L7 23.7%, season 21.9%, active roster 20.2%/6 hitters, BVP 21.0%/62 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.42
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Under 17.5 (-107) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -107 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 14.908000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 80%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.1 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 49 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .775
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.9%, L7 18.0%, season 19.3%, BVP 18.4%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 7.5%, L7 7.4%, season 7.7%, BVP 4.1%/49 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.12 | Season Avg 16.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/8 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Under 17.5 (-138) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -138 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

Proj 14.929 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.93 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 106) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 117 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .248 | OPS .688
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.4%, L7 22.3%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.6%/117 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.6%, split 14.0%, L7 9.8%, season 11.3%, BVP 9.4%/117 PA (adj 1.19x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.00 | Season Avg 15.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.57 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.57 <= 3 min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Ryan Weathers Over 17.5 (-138) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -138 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 19.386999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.30 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.353
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.0%, season 22.0%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 8.9%, L7 6.6%, season 8.0%, BVP 0.0%/17 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +1.89 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +1.89 <= 3 min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 17.5 (+119) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 16.521 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 180 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .248 | OPS .727
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.7%, L7 20.9%, season 23.2%, BVP 22.8%/180 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.0%, L7 6.3%, season 9.3%, BVP 11.1%/180 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 16.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 17.5 (-102) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -102 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 18.408 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.36 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 89
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.1%, L7 22.8%, season 23.0% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.2%, L7 7.5%, season 9.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 17.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Merrill Kelly Under 18.5 (-169) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -169 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 17.946 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 3.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 90%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.3 IP (xFIP 4.84 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality -0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 114
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 28 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .893
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.7%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/28 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 9.4%, L7 7.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 0.0%/28 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/9 (67%) | L20 6/9 (67%) | Season 6/9 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.78 | Season Avg 17.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/9 under 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Under 18.5 (-166) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 17.993000000000002 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .171 | OPS .423
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.5%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.7%, L7 9.3%, season 9.9%, BVP 2.8%/36 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 18.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 17.5 (-140) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -140 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 17.937 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.06 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .160 | OPS .440
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 26.2%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 13.6%, L7 7.1%, season 9.6%, BVP 0.0%/25 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.30 | Season Avg 16.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 (-115) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -115 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 17.066 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.46 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 56 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .308 | OPS .723
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.4%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.5%/56 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.8%, L7 10.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 5.4%/56 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 16.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Pitcher Outs — Michael King Under 17.5 (-116) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -116 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 17.382 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.04 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.3 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 91) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 62 PA | K% 21.0% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .283 | OPS .821
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.3%, L7 23.7%, season 21.9%, BVP 21.0%/62 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.5%, L7 6.6%, season 7.7%, BVP 12.9%/62 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Sal Frelick Under 1.5 (-243) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.74 (AVG 0.223)
Base projection 0.74 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/33 (24%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/57 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.74
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/33 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Hits: 21/24 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 50/57 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.74

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Blake Dunn Under 1.5 (-258) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (6)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-188) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -188 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Christian Yelich Under 1.5 (-202) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -202 | exact

Checks: ✓!✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (5)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-272) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-262) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.90 (AVG 0.226)
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.356 (70 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael King: 29 PA | 6/24 | HR 0 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .671
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 29 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/36 (28%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/62 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/30 under 1.5 (87%), avg 0.83 | Away Batter Hits: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 50/62 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Rafael Devers Under 1.5 (-257) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.240)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.258 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 5/23 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 47/63 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/28 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter Hits: 26/35 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 47/63 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-241) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.228)
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.158 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 50/61 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/33 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 24/28 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter Hits: 50/61 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Hunter Goodman Under 1.5 (-257) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.249 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 44/57 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/25 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter Hits: 23/32 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-229) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.378 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 46/63 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 46/63 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Byron Buxton Under 1.5 (-256) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.258)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/54 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 21/27 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Tyler Freeman Under 1.5 (-185) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.271)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 41/60 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/31 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 16/29 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 41/60 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-250) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.258)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.211 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 2/19 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/58 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter Hits: 20/28 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 40/58 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-259) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/31 (32%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/60 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 26/33 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 45/60 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 (-209) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.332 (15 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 36 PA | 8/31 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .716
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 36 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/44 (25%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 44/63 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/35 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 20/28 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 44/63 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Randy Arozarena Under 1.5 (-262) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.309 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 21 PA | 5/18 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.103
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/45 (22%) | L5 2/20 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/63 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/35 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 18/28 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 45/63 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-265) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -265 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.300)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.270 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/36 (39%) | L5 8/22 (36%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/61 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 25/33 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-231) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -231 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.253)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.317 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 48/62 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/31 under 1.5 (81%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 23/31 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 48/62 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-227) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.259)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.240 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/60 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/32 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 21/28 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 49/60 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-246) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.249)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.327 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/41 (29%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/58 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter Hits: 24/28 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Brice Turang Under 1.5 (-223) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 14 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/32 (22%) | L5 7/17 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 41/57 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 19/23 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Hits: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-237) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.301)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.395 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 35.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .786
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 43/60 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/28 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Hits: 19/32 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter Hits: 43/60 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-252) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -252 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.32 (AVG 0.336)
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.185 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/62 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 20/32 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter Hits: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 38/62 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-209) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.278)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.263 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 1/19 (5%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 38/58 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 22/30 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 16/28 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 38/58 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-209) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.370 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 43.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .438
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/37 (19%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 40/56 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 17/23 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-168) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.325)
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.235 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/37 (35%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/60 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 16/26 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter Hits: 21/34 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter Hits: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-267) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -267 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.291)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.301 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 42/59 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-262) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.22 (AVG 0.322)
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edward Cabrera contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Edward Cabrera: 8 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.350
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 22/38 (58%) | L5 13/20 (65%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/55 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 16/22 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 20/33 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-215) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.339 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.518
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/59 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 21/32 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 17/27 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-246) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.20 (AVG 0.313)
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.540 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/37 (32%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/56 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+105) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.742 (37 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/63 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/32 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 34/63 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+117) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.782 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/56 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter TB: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+102) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.307 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 29/59 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.63 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+107) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.353 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/59 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+106) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.401 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/57 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter TB: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+120) diff 58.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.331 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.372
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/63 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 21/33 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter TB: 37/63 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+132) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.538 (30 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/57 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+124) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.538 (30 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/57 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-104) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.457 (17 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.518
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/59 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (+116) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.778 (54 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 20/45 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/22 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter TB: 8/23 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+112) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+121) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.376 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/62 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 26/62 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-104) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.520 (18 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 29/59 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter TB: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-119) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.324 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/54 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/27 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+127) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.617 (21 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/62 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 25/62 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-112) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/57 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/25 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 15/32 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+117) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.383 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 22/61 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/32 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+101) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.478 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 23/53 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 10/23 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (-165) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.84
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 38/50 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/29 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter TB: 16/21 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter TB: 38/50 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-106) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.621 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 35.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .786
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/60 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-198) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.95
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.115 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 45/59 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/25 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 27/34 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 45/59 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-110) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.493 (15 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 36 PA | 8/31 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .716
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 36 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/63 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 26/63 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+127) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-172) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.118 (34 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/58 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/30 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 39/58 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+118) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.407 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.346 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 4, HR vulnerability 96 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 24/62 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (+131) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (32 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 32/61 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 32/61 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (+132) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.383 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (22 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 (-152) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.261 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 39/60 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 39/60 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-103) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 14 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 22/57 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 5/23 over 1.5 (22%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-163) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.219 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 41/60 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/31 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 41/60 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-101) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.149 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 27/58 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Under 1.5 (-161) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.205 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 36/52 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 15/22 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+103) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.339 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/58 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-178) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.315 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/60 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 43/60 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Sal Frelick Under 1.5 (-144) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -144 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/57 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/33 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 19/24 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-163) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.244 (10 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 42/59 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter TB: 21/29 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+101) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.288 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/60 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/32 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+139) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.827 (10 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/60 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+144) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.389 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 28/62 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 13/32 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+124) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 21 PA | 8/19 | HR 3 | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.371
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 19/49 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/24 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 9/25 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Tyler Freeman Over 1.5 (-113) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/60 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/31 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 17/29 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Under 1.5 (-188) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.159 (19 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/60 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/30 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 16/30 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 31/60 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+130) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Keller contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Mitch Keller: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .767
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 28/63 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 28/63 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (+133) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .733
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 23/61 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/28 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.46 | Away Batter TB: 8/33 over 1.5 (24%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-161) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.455 (70 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael King: 29 PA | 6/24 | HR 0 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .671
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 29 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 46/62 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/30 under 1.5 (80%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 22/32 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 46/62 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+135) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.811 (20 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/56 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/25 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-165) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.726 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/60 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/27 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 46/60 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-108) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.382 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 43.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .438
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/56 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 10/23 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+112) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 21 PA | 5/18 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.103
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/63 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/35 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.258 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/62 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/32 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+123) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.454 (36 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/64 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 25/64 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-170) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.238 (19 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/58 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/30 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+102) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/60 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 10/33 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 21/60 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-189) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.329 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 12 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .350
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/58 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/33 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 15/25 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 39/58 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-171) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.184 (16 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/60 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/27 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 27/33 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter TB: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+146) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.518 (27 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/59 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+136) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.387 (22 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/61 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/31 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+140) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.526 (27 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 23/58 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/28 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+134) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.567 (18 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/62 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/34 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 26/62 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+127) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Under 1.5 (-162) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.222 (41 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/60 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/30 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 15/30 under 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+115) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.432 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Sproat contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brandon Sproat: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/58 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+140) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.303 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-138) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/61 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 40/61 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-108) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.469 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/63 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/32 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — J.P. Crawford Over 1.5 (+159) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +160 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.578 (13 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 40 PA | 9/38 | HR 1 | K% 27.5% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .670
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 40 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 15/54 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/27 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 6/27 over 1.5 (22%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 15/54 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-197) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.324 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.700 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 34/54 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/29 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 17/25 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-149) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.283 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/60 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/29 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+127) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+135) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Under 1.5 (-167) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Trey Yesavage contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Trey Yesavage: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/63 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 under 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 35/63 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (+126) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-158) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (19 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 32/57 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 14/27 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 32/57 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-121) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-116) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 1/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+106) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+139) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Blake Dunn Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+134) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (+145) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.407 (49 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/63 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-198) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.443 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .708
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 38/60 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/31 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+129) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+143) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-182) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.211 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/57 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/30 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+102) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.368 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.202 (22 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 20/61 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/33 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 9/28 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 20/61 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-155) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Checks: ✓✗✗––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.385 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.260 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 15, HR vulnerability 85 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 36/58 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/30 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 15/28 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min

⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-105) edge 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7 -125 | alt rescue

Checks: –✓–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

[INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs LHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 97)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Parker Messick elite xFIP (3.36)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Under 11.0 11.0 (-110) edge 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 11.5 -115 | alt rescue

Checks: –✓–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Matthew Boyd (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Jose Romero (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Erick Hernandez (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Edward Cabrera (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Cade Horton (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 11.0
Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Robbie Ray (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-111) edge 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -105 | best price

Checks: –✓–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

[IL] Craig Kimbrel (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Noble Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Franklin Sanchez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Dax Fulton (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Ryan Gusto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 98)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Home SP (Ryan Gusto) stats unavailable — used league avg
Drew Rasmussen elite xFIP (3.46)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-122) edge 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7 -122 | exact

Checks: –✓!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tyler Burch (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Jonathan Pintaro (New York Mets) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dedniel Núñez (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Daniel Duarte (New York Mets) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Cesar Rivera (New York Mets) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Michael King (RHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP) | opp wRC+ 94 vs RHP (neutral)
Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 0.94
Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Christian Scott small sample (30 IP) — stats 37% actual / 63% league avg (regression applied)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 6.5 6.5 (-144) edge 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 -144 | exact

Checks: –✓–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)

[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Matthew Boyd (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Jose Romero (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Erick Hernandez (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Edward Cabrera (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Cade Horton (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Edward Cabrera xFIP 4.05
Robbie Ray xFIP 4.56
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP)
Away SP: Robbie Ray (LHP)

⚠ ⚠ High F5 edge 21% (≥18%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 6.5 6.5 (-128) edge 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 -128 | exact

Checks: –✓!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)

[IL] Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Jared Koenig (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Bryan Rivera (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 5.2 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.22
Away SP TBD
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 99)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Away SP: Brandon Sproat (RHP)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-125) edge 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers (F5) | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | exact

Checks: –✓!––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)

[INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Kumar Rocker xFIP 4.39
Parker Messick xFIP 3.36
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 97)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 97)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-146) edge 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5) | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | exact

Checks: –✓!––! ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)

[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Busch Stadium (PITCHER)
Kyle Leahy xFIP 4.19
Away SP TBD
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 98)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kyle Leahy (RHP)
Away SP: Brady Singer (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-115) edge 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Zebby Matthews: xFIP 4.06, K% 24.0%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 24.7%
Michael Wacha: xFIP 4.19, K% 22.0%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.314, whiff% 24.3%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 98)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 97)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.83 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.84
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.302 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.253 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +2.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +6.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-146) edge -4.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -146

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Michael King: xFIP 4.04, K% 23.3%, BB% 10.3%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 27.9%
Christian Scott: xFIP 4.16, K% 25.6%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.324, whiff% 22.3%
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 93)
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 93)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.79 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.75
Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch) | San Diego Padres struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.275 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge -4.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge +13.1%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge -4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Trey Yesavage: xFIP 4.18, K% 25.4%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.252, whiff% 29.8%
Brandon Young: xFIP 4.60, K% 19.8%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.327, whiff% 21.7%
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 103 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.69 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.03
Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.278 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -4.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +13.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.5 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+106) edge -7.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +106

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Edward Cabrera: xFIP 4.05, K% 21.9%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.332, whiff% 27.0%
Robbie Ray: xFIP 4.56, K% 20.3%, BB% 10.9%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 26.1%
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.18, SO/G 0.48
Park: Wrigley Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.256 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago Cubs struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.296 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge -7.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge +16.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-150) edge -8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -150

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Framber Valdez: xFIP 4.27, K% 18.6%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 21.6%
Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.81, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.4%, xwOBA 0.272, whiff% 24.5%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.91
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.179 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -150 | implied 60.0% | model edge -8.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +118 | implied 45.9% | model edge +17.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.5 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-115) edge -8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Jesús Luzardo: xFIP 3.06, K% 25.6%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 32.3%
Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.76, K% 18.4%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.368, whiff% 21.2%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 96)
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 1.14
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.208 vs SP's top pitch) | Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.225 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge -8.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +17.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge -9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.30, K% 28.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 28.6%
Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.93, K% 22.7%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 21.9%
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 129 (team avg 104)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.89
Park: Yankee Stadium (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.420 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -9.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +18.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-104) edge -10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Peter Lambert: xFIP 4.28, K% 21.5%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 25.9%
Jack Perkins: xFIP 4.07, K% 23.0%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.282, whiff% 30.1%
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.59, SO/G 0.99
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.424 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -10.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +19.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-156) edge -12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -156

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Kumar Rocker: xFIP 4.39, K% 18.9%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 22.9%
Parker Messick: xFIP 3.36, K% 26.3%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.286, whiff% 26.3%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 97)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 97)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.50
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch) | Texas Rangers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.271 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -156 | implied 60.9% | model edge -12.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +122 | implied 45.0% | model edge +21.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge -16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Home SP (Ryan Gusto) -- used league avg
Drew Rasmussen: xFIP 3.46, K% 22.1%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 23.5%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 98)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.50 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.76
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.361 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -16.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +16.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (+116) edge -16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +116

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Ryan Feltner: xFIP 4.22, K% 19.0%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.385, whiff% 24.2%
Away SP (Brandon Sproat) -- used league avg
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.85
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Coors Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.32)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.349 vs SP's top pitch) | Colorado Rockies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.249 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge -16.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +20.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.3 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-115) edge -20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Martín Pérez: xFIP 4.06, K% 22.7%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.327, whiff% 19.6%
Mitch Keller: xFIP 4.06, K% 18.2%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.328, whiff% 21.5%
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 104)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 103)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.87 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.339 vs SP's top pitch) | Atlanta Braves struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.280 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge -20.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +28.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-113) edge -22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Merrill Kelly: xFIP 4.84, K% 15.9%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.407, whiff% 22.1%
Foster Griffin: xFIP 3.95, K% 24.6%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 24.6%
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.78 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.93
Park: Chase Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.306 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -22.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +30.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.7 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-111) edge -22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)

Kyle Leahy: xFIP 4.19, K% 20.0%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.383, whiff% 22.6%
Away SP (Brady Singer) -- used league avg
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 1.01
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -22.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +23.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.6 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk NRFI — NRFI (-110) diff -53.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -110

Checks: –✗–––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Roki Sasaki: xFIP 4.18, K% 23.2%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.336, whiff% 29.2%
Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 107)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.64, SO/G 1.24
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.271 vs SP's top pitch)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-113) edge 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Merrill Kelly: xFIP 4.84, K% 15.9%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.407, whiff% 22.1%
Foster Griffin: xFIP 3.95, K% 24.6%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 24.6%
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.78 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.93
Park: Chase Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.306 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -22.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +30.9%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 31% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-111) edge 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Martín Pérez: xFIP 4.06, K% 22.7%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.327, whiff% 19.6%
Mitch Keller: xFIP 4.06, K% 18.2%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.328, whiff% 21.5%
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 104)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 103)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.87 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.339 vs SP's top pitch) | Atlanta Braves struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.280 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge -20.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +28.9%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 29% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-115) edge 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Kyle Leahy: xFIP 4.19, K% 20.0%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.383, whiff% 22.6%
Away SP (Brady Singer) -- used league avg
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 1.01
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -22.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +23.9%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 24% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+122) edge 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +122

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Kumar Rocker: xFIP 4.39, K% 18.9%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 22.9%
Parker Messick: xFIP 3.36, K% 26.3%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.286, whiff% 26.3%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 97)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 97)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.50
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch) | Texas Rangers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.271 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -156 | implied 60.9% | model edge -12.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +122 | implied 45.0% | model edge +21.8%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 22% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-148) edge 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -148

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Ryan Feltner: xFIP 4.22, K% 19.0%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.385, whiff% 24.2%
Away SP (Brandon Sproat) -- used league avg
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.93 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.85
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Coors Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.32)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.349 vs SP's top pitch) | Colorado Rockies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.249 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge -16.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +20.7%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 21% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-122) edge 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Peter Lambert: xFIP 4.28, K% 21.5%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 25.9%
Jack Perkins: xFIP 4.07, K% 23.0%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.282, whiff% 30.1%
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.59, SO/G 0.99
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.424 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -10.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +19.5%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.30, K% 28.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 28.6%
Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.93, K% 22.7%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 21.9%
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 129 (team avg 104)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.89
Park: Yankee Stadium (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.420 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -9.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +18.8%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-111) edge 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Jesús Luzardo: xFIP 3.06, K% 25.6%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 32.3%
Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.76, K% 18.4%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.368, whiff% 21.2%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 96)
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.60, SO/G 1.14
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.208 vs SP's top pitch) | Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.225 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge -8.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +17.8%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+118) edge 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +118

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Framber Valdez: xFIP 4.27, K% 18.6%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 21.6%
Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.81, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.4%, xwOBA 0.272, whiff% 24.5%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 98)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.91
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.179 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -150 | implied 60.0% | model edge -8.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +118 | implied 45.9% | model edge +17.3%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Home SP (Ryan Gusto) -- used league avg
Drew Rasmussen: xFIP 3.46, K% 22.1%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 23.5%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 98)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.50 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 0.76
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.361 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -16.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +16.8%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-136) edge 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -136

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Edward Cabrera: xFIP 4.05, K% 21.9%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.332, whiff% 27.0%
Robbie Ray: xFIP 4.56, K% 20.3%, BB% 10.9%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 26.1%
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.18, SO/G 0.48
Park: Wrigley Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.256 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago Cubs struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.296 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge -7.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge +16.4%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Trey Yesavage: xFIP 4.18, K% 25.4%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.252, whiff% 29.8%
Brandon Young: xFIP 4.60, K% 19.8%, BB% 8.8%, xwOBA 0.327, whiff% 21.7%
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 103 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.69 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.03
Park: Rogers Centre (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.278 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge -4.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +13.5%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+114) edge 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +114

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Michael King: xFIP 4.04, K% 23.3%, BB% 10.3%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 27.9%
Christian Scott: xFIP 4.16, K% 25.6%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.324, whiff% 22.3%
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 93)
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 93)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.79 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.75
Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch) | San Diego Padres struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.275 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge -4.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge +13.1%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-111) edge 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (9)

Zebby Matthews: xFIP 4.06, K% 24.0%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 24.7%
Michael Wacha: xFIP 4.19, K% 22.0%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.314, whiff% 24.3%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 98)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 97)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.83 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.84
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.302 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.253 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +2.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +6.3%

C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-110) diff -25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -110

Checks: –––––– ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)

Roki Sasaki: xFIP 4.18, K% 23.2%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.336, whiff% 29.2%
Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 107)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.64, SO/G 1.24
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.271 vs SP's top pitch)

B ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Run Line — Detroit Tigers +1.5 1.5 (-158) edge 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Detroit Tigers 1.5 -154 | best price

Checks: –✓✗✓–✓ ► ALT / DERISK

▼ Key Factors & Flags (22)

[IL] Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+16.00/$100
✓ Cover prob 71.0% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 12.5% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 3 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -158 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Comerica Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.5
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Stats within normal range

⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | split consensus 44% (9 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: DK disagrees | split consensus 44% (9 books) — would have capped at C

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Bryan Woo Over 5.5 (-144) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!!–– ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 22.3% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +1.23K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.8, proj 6.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 38.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .171 | OPS .423
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.5%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
K% trend: support +10.1 ppts (recent 34.5% vs season 24.4%)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -144, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch — retained at B — would have capped at B

⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration — derisk posture — would have capped at C

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-146) edge 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -145 | best price

Checks: –✓!––✓ ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)

[IL] Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Comerica Park (PITCHER)
Framber Valdez xFIP 4.27
Bryan Woo xFIP 3.81
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)

⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage — downgraded to monitor/derisk — would have capped at C

B MONITOR ◇ Monitor F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-148) edge 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (F5) | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | exact

Checks: –✓–––✓ ► MONITOR

▼ Key Factors & Flags (22)

[IL] Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Yerry De los Santos (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Geoffrey Gilbert (New York Yankees) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Felipe Hernandez (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Ryan Weathers xFIP 3.30
Sonny Gray xFIP 3.93
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 122 blended 50% (team 104)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Weathers (LHP)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP)

⚠ ⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage — downgraded to monitor/derisk — would have capped at C

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-105	48.9%	71.2%	+22.3%	$+39.10	9	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Total	Under 11.0	-110	50.0%	69.1%	+19.1%	$+31.84	8	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-111	50.3%	66.4%	+16.1%	$+26.25	9	Bet on DK
C	New York Mets @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Total	Over 7.0	-122	52.6%	68.2%	+15.6%	$+24.16	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (4 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers (Total) +22.3%

[INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs LHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 97)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Parker Messick elite xFIP (3.36)

C Under 11.0 — San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +19.1%

[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Matthew Boyd (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Jose Romero (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Erick Hernandez (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Edward Cabrera (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Cade Horton (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 11.0
Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Robbie Ray (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.5 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins (Total) +16.1%

[IL] Craig Kimbrel (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Noble Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Franklin Sanchez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Dax Fulton (Miami Marlins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Ryan Gusto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 98)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Home SP (Ryan Gusto) stats unavailable — used league avg
Drew Rasmussen elite xFIP (3.46)

C Over 7.0 — New York Mets @ San Diego Padres (Total) +15.6%

[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tyler Burch (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Jonathan Pintaro (New York Mets) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dedniel Núñez (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Daniel Duarte (New York Mets) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Cesar Rivera (New York Mets) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Michael King (RHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP) | opp wRC+ 94 vs RHP (neutral)
Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 95 blended 35% (team 93)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 0.94
Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Christian Scott small sample (30 IP) — stats 37% actual / 63% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

6 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	2:21 PM	F5 Total	Under 6.5	-144	55.3%	76.0%	+20.6%	$+28.71	1	Bet on DK
C	Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	8:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 6.5	-128	52.6%	70.6%	+18.0%	$+25.81	2	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers (F5)	8:16 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-125	52.1%	65.1%	+13.0%	$+17.20	2	Bet on DK
C	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5)	8:16 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-146	55.7%	65.6%	+9.8%	$+10.45	2	Bet on DK
B	Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-146	55.7%	64.2%	+8.5%	$+8.21	2	Bet on DK
B	Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (F5)	7:06 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-148	56.1%	64.5%	+8.4%	$+8.11	1	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (6 play(s))

C Under 6.5 — San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 Total) +20.6%

[IL] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Matthew Boyd (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Jose Romero (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Erick Hernandez (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Edward Cabrera (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Cade Horton (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Edward Cabrera xFIP 4.05
Robbie Ray xFIP 4.56
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 100)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Edward Cabrera (RHP)
Away SP: Robbie Ray (LHP)

C Under 6.5 — Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 Total) +18.0%

[IL] Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Jared Koenig (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Bryan Rivera (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Pedro Nunez (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Jeff Criswell (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 5.2 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.22
Away SP TBD
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 99)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Away SP: Brandon Sproat (RHP)

C Over 3.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers (F5) (F5 Total) +13.0%

[INJ] Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Erik Sabrowski (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Carlos Hernández (Cleveland Guardians) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Kumar Rocker xFIP 4.39
Parker Messick xFIP 3.36
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 97)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 97)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP)

C Under 5.5 — Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5) (F5 Total) +9.8%

[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Busch Stadium (PITCHER)
Kyle Leahy xFIP 4.19
Away SP TBD
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 98)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kyle Leahy (RHP)
Away SP: Brady Singer (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers (F5) (F5 Total) +8.5%

[IL] Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Comerica Park (PITCHER)
Framber Valdez xFIP 4.27
Bryan Woo xFIP 3.81
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (F5) (F5 Total) +8.4%

[IL] Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Yerry De los Santos (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Geoffrey Gilbert (New York Yankees) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Felipe Hernandez (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Ryan Weathers xFIP 3.30
Sonny Gray xFIP 3.93
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 122 blended 50% (team 104)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Weathers (LHP)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (15 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	8:16 PM	Zebby Matthews / Michael Wacha	4.9 / 7.7	5.1 / 7.7	+2.6%	Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 2.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Michael King / Christian Scott	4.8 / 7.7	5.2 / 7.7	-4.1%	Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Framber Valdez / Bryan Woo	4.5 / 7.7	5.5 / 7.7	-8.1%	Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	Trey Yesavage / Brandon Young	4.5 / 7.7	5.5 / 7.7	-4.6%	Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	Kumar Rocker / Parker Messick	4.2 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-12.8%	Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -12.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Ryan Weathers / Sonny Gray	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-9.9%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -9.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Jesús Luzardo / Anthony Kay	3.9 / 7.7	6.1 / 7.7	-8.9%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.9% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Roki Sasaki / TBD ⚠ Away SP	3.6 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	no odds	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used \| No NRFI/YRFI odds available — edge gate skipped
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Edward Cabrera / Robbie Ray	3.6 / 7.7	6.4 / 7.7	-7.6%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -7.6% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Athletics @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	Peter Lambert / Jack Perkins	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-10.4%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -10.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	Ryan Gusto / Drew Rasmussen ⚠ Home SP	3.5 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-16.0%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -16.0% < 8% required Home SP (Ryan Gusto) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Martín Pérez / Mitch Keller	2.9 / 7.7	7.1 / 7.7	-20.0%	Score 2.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -20.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Merrill Kelly / Foster Griffin	2.7 / 7.7	7.3 / 7.7	-22.0%	Score 2.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -22.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	Kyle Leahy / Brady Singer ⚠ Away SP	2.6 / 7.7	6.7 / 7.7	-22.6%	Score 2.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -22.6% < 8% required Away SP (Brady Singer) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	Ryan Feltner / Brandon Sproat ⚠ Away SP	2.3 / 7.7	7.0 / 7.7	-16.3%	Score 2.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -16.3% < 8% required Away SP (Brandon Sproat) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 0 batter line(s)
Market discovery: no extra HR markets returned
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

No batter HR chances clear the watchlist tier.

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	90.0%	-898	-	Chase Field HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	100	89.4%	-840	-	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	100	88.7%	-787	-	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	100	87.9%	-723	-	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	8:16 PM	100	87.7%	-710	-	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	87.4%	-693	-	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	99	86.8%	-658	-	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	99	86.7%	-653	-	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.3%	-
Watchlist	Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	93	85.4%	-585	-	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	92	84.8%	-556	-	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	92	84.3%	-536	-	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	91	83.7%	-514	-	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91	-
Watchlist	Athletics @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	91	83.5%	-505	-	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	87	80.3%	-408	-	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	87	80.0%	-400	-	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Michael King	Christian Scott	0.85	20.0%	52.2%	—	—
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	Trey Yesavage	Brandon Young	0.96	19.7%	51.6%	—	—
Athletics @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	Peter Lambert	Jack Perkins	1.00	16.5%	46.3%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Framber Valdez	Bryan Woo	0.91	16.3%	45.8%	—	—
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Martín Pérez	Mitch Keller	1.03	15.7%	44.8%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	Kumar Rocker	Parker Messick	1.10	15.3%	43.9%	—	—
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	Ryan Gusto	Drew Rasmussen	0.88	14.6%	42.7%	—	—
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Jesús Luzardo	Anthony Kay	1.10	13.3%	40.1%	—	—
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	Kyle Leahy	Brady Singer	0.93	13.2%	39.9%	—	—
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Ryan Weathers	Sonny Gray	1.18	12.6%	38.7%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	8:16 PM	Zebby Matthews	Michael Wacha	0.95	12.3%	38.2%	—	—
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Roki Sasaki	None	0.97	12.1%	37.7%	—	—
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	Ryan Feltner	Brandon Sproat	1.20	11.3%	35.9%	—	—
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Edward Cabrera	Robbie Ray	1.05	10.6%	34.5%	—	—
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Merrill Kelly	Foster Griffin	1.02	10.0%	33.1%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	70.5	63.8	81.5	3	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.252, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	67.2	70.4	66.0	4	Sweeper (46% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 32.3%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Houston Astros	62.9	61.9	66.5	5	Changeup (45% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	60.1	52.0	71.5	5	Sweeper (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	59.8	52.5	69.5	5	Slider (41% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	58.7	57.2	64.5	6	Changeup (45% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	56.3	64.9	50.0	5	Sweeper (46% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins	55.7	50.3	63.0	6	Changeup (48% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs New York Mets	52.9	59.9	50.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Athletics	52.5	53.5	52.5	6	Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	51.1	53.6	50.5	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels	51.0	60.6	39.5	3	Slider (42% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Edward Cabrera	Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants	48.5	55.0	41.5	5	Slider (45% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs San Diego Padres	47.0	48.8	45.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.9	52.1	42.5	7	Sweeper (36% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	44.2	43.8	44.0	5	Slider (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves	43.3	43.7	43.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	42.8	51.7	31.5	6	Curveball (37% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians	42.3	44.9	39.0	5	Slider (35% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	42.3	41.6	43.0	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	42.2	42.0	43.0	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	41.7	39.7	44.0	5	Changeup (33% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs	41.1	52.1	30.5	5	Slider (35% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays	35.4	58.6	15.0	6	Slider (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.385, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	34.3	51.2	15.0	6	Changeup (56% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.385, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	32.4	38.8	23.5	6	Sweeper (28% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.368, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	32.3	47.1	16.0	6	Changeup (45% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.383, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	30.8	42.7	13.0	5	Sweeper (40% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	24.5	41.2	4.0	6	Slider (38% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.407, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	R	15.9%	6.8	5.9	6.1	114	deep	full	4.00	96.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Houston Astros	R	23.0%	2.1	-	5.0	35	short	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.1 IP/start
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	22.7%	3.4	6.4	5.7	57	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	19.8%	5.3	5.4	5.4	89	normal	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	R	22.7%	5.4	5.0	5.1	91	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.3%
Edward Cabrera	Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants	R	21.9%	4.7	5.4	5.3	79	short	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	18.4%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	23.50	76.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	-	4.3	-	5.5	72	short	full	13.00	87.00	fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, season_pitcher_stats_missing
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	L	26.3%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	19.0%	4.5	4.3	4.8	76	short	full	15.00	85.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	L	18.6%	5.3	5.6	5.5	89	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Athletics	R	21.5%	6.0	5.6	5.7	101	deep	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	R	22.0%	6.2	6.3	6.2	104	deep	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels	R	23.2%	5.6	5.1	5.2	94	normal	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	-	1.5	-	5.2	25	short	full	15.00	85.00	fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 18.9%, season_pitcher_stats_missing
Brandon Sproat	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	R	-	4.3	-	5.5	72	short	full	31.50	68.50	fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, season_pitcher_stats_missing
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	24.0%	5.8	5.8	5.8	97	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs San Diego Padres	R	25.6%	4.5	4.3	4.7	76	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	L	28.0%	5.9	5.8	6.0	99	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	L	25.6%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves	R	18.2%	5.3	5.7	5.6	89	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs New York Mets	R	23.3%	5.5	5.7	5.6	92	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs	L	20.3%	4.5	5.2	5.0	76	short	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	R	27.8%	5.8	5.8	6.0	97	normal	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	20.0%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	16.00	84.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins	R	22.1%	5.6	5.4	5.4	94	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians	R	18.9%	5.3	5.6	5.5	89	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	R	25.4%	5.4	5.3	5.4	91	normal	full	81.50	18.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	24.6%	5.4	5.6	5.5	91	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	14.9	-2.6	14.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Under	Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees	17.5	14.9	-2.6	14.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.1	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.57 <= 3 min
Ryan Weathers	Ryan Weathers Over	Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees	17.5	19.4	1.9	10.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +1.89 <= 3 min
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min
Merrill Kelly	Merrill Kelly Under	Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks	18.5	17.9	-0.6	3.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Under	Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	18.0	-0.5	2.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	17.9	0.4	2.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins	17.5	17.1	-0.4	2.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min
Michael King	Michael King Under	New York Mets @ San Diego Padres	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust Tiers	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

Signal	Meaning
⭐ TOP PICK	Existing Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best Play	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong Watch	Watch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research Lead	Research-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused Signal	Paused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

Stage	Recommendation behavior	Evidence needed
Trusted	Eligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.	Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
Watch	Visible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.	Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
Research	Scored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.	Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
Paused	Shadow-only. No actionable recommendations.	A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Final Signals

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes