| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 242 | 56% | -4.86u | 45 | 64% | +4.81u | 113 | 59% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 159 | 61% | +15.88u | 42 | 60% | +3.68u | 1 | 100% |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 119 | 53% | -4.56u | 39 | 51% | -4.60u | 39 | 64% |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 73 | 64% | -0.15u | 73 | 64% | -0.15u | 2 | 0% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 40 | 70% | +9.04u | 40 | 70% | +9.04u | 0 | - |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 49% | -3.68u | 15 | 53% | -0.45u | 0 | - |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 77% | +2.37u | 16 | 69% | -0.46u | 0 | - |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 24 | 54% | -2.83u | 24 | 54% | -2.83u | 0 | - |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 76 | 42% | -13.08u | 1 | 100% | +0.66u | 1 | 0% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 43 | 39% | -8.42u | 1 | 100% | +0.86u | 1 | 100% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 497 | 50% | -58.72u | 90 | 56% | -1.08u | 70 | 49% |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | 70.5 | 63.8 | 81.5 | 3 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.252, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 67.2 | 70.4 | 66.0 | 4 | Sweeper (46% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 32.3%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Houston Astros | 62.9 | 61.9 | 66.5 | 5 | Changeup (45% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | 60.1 | 52.0 | 71.5 | 5 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | 59.8 | 52.5 | 69.5 | 5 | Slider (41% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | 58.7 | 57.2 | 64.5 | 6 | Changeup (45% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | 56.3 | 64.9 | 50.0 | 5 | Sweeper (46% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | 55.7 | 50.3 | 63.0 | 6 | Changeup (48% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | 52.9 | 59.9 | 50.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Athletics | 52.5 | 53.5 | 52.5 | 6 | Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | 51.1 | 53.6 | 50.5 | 6 | Changeup (34% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | 51.0 | 60.6 | 39.5 | 3 | Slider (42% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Edward Cabrera | Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | 48.5 | 55.0 | 41.5 | 5 | Slider (45% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | 47.0 | 48.8 | 45.5 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.9 | 52.1 | 42.5 | 7 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | 44.2 | 43.8 | 44.0 | 5 | Slider (40% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | 43.3 | 43.7 | 43.5 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | 42.8 | 51.7 | 31.5 | 6 | Curveball (37% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | 42.3 | 44.9 | 39.0 | 5 | Slider (35% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | 42.3 | 41.6 | 43.0 | 6 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | 42.2 | 42.0 | 43.0 | 5 | Curveball (32% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 41.7 | 39.7 | 44.0 | 5 | Changeup (33% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | 41.1 | 52.1 | 30.5 | 5 | Slider (35% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | 35.4 | 58.6 | 15.0 | 6 | Slider (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.385, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | 34.3 | 51.2 | 15.0 | 6 | Changeup (56% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.385, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 32.4 | 38.8 | 23.5 | 6 | Sweeper (28% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.368, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | 32.3 | 47.1 | 16.0 | 6 | Changeup (45% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.383, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | 30.8 | 42.7 | 13.0 | 5 | Sweeper (40% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | 24.5 | 41.2 | 4.0 | 6 | Slider (38% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.407, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | R | 15.9% | 6.8 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 114 | deep | full | 4.00 | 96.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Houston Astros | R | 23.0% | 2.1 | - | 5.0 | 35 | short | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.1 IP/start |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 22.7% | 3.4 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 57 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 19.8% | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.3% |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | R | 22.7% | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 91 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.3% |
| Edward Cabrera | Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | R | 21.9% | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 79 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 18.4% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 23.50 | 76.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | - | 4.3 | - | 5.5 | 72 | short | full | 13.00 | 87.00 | fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, season_pitcher_stats_missing |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | L | 26.3% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 89 | normal | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 19.0% | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 15.00 | 85.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | L | 18.6% | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Athletics | R | 21.5% | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 101 | deep | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | R | 22.0% | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 104 | deep | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 23.2% | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 94 | normal | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | - | 1.5 | - | 5.2 | 25 | short | full | 15.00 | 85.00 | fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 18.9%, season_pitcher_stats_missing |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | R | - | 4.3 | - | 5.5 | 72 | short | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, season_pitcher_stats_missing |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | R | 24.0% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 97 | normal | full | 69.50 | 30.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | R | 25.6% | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 76 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | L | 28.0% | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | L | 25.6% | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | R | 18.2% | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 89 | normal | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | R | 23.3% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | L | 20.3% | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 30.50 | 69.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.0% |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | R | 27.8% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 20.0% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 16.00 | 84.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | R | 22.1% | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 94 | normal | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 18.9% | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 25.4% | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 81.50 | 18.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 24.6% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Young | Brandon Young Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 14.9 | -2.6 | 14.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Under | Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 14.9 | -2.6 | 14.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.1 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.57 <= 3 min |
| Ryan Weathers | Ryan Weathers Over | Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 19.4 | 1.9 | 10.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +1.89 <= 3 min |
| Framber Valdez | Framber Valdez Under | Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min |
| Parker Messick | Parker Messick Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 18.4 | 0.9 | 5.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min |
| Merrill Kelly | Merrill Kelly Under | Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 18.5 | 17.9 | -0.6 | 3.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 114 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Under | Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | 18.5 | 18.0 | -0.5 | 2.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min |
| Jesus Luzardo | Jesus Luzardo Over | Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.4 | 2.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min |
| Drew Rasmussen | Drew Rasmussen Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 2.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min |
| Michael King | Michael King Under | New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | 0.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Good Add | Run Line | San Francisco Giants +1.5 | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | - | -143 | LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -138 | best price | +10.6% | –!✓✓–✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Run Line | Texas Rangers +1.5 | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | - | -149 | Bovada Direct Texas Rangers 1.5 -140 | best price | +10.5% | –!✓✓–✓ | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C | K Prop | Brady Singer Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 3.5 | 5.0 | -164 | DK Over 3.5 -164 | exact | 41.7% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C | K Prop | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 4.5 | 6.3 | -141 | DK Over 4.5 -141 | exact | 39.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C | K Prop | Merrill Kelly Over | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.7 | -164 | DK Over 3.5 -164 | exact | 33.5% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C | K Prop | Brandon Sproat Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.8 | -106 | DK Over 4.5 -106 | exact | 28.6% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check — would have capped at C | K Prop | Edward Cabrera Over | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | 4.5 | 5.6 | +105 | DK Over 4.5 +105 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -122 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -114 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Jesus Luzardo Over | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.7 | -108 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +100 | best price | 17.7% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Brandon Young Over | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 3.5 | 4.1 | -126 | DK Over 3.5 -126 | exact | 16.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Martin Perez Over | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | +104 | DK Over 4.5 +104 | exact | 14.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Christian Scott Over | MET@PAD | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -152 | DK Over 4.5 -152 | exact | 12.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Ryan Feltner Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -114 | DK Over 3.5 -114 | exact | 11.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Kyle Leahy Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -116 | DK Over 4.5 -116 | exact | 11.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Kumar Rocker Over | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -129 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -128 | best price | 11.1% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Robbie Ray Under | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -133 | DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact | 8.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Ryan Weathers Over | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 6.5 | 7.1 | +106 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +122 | best price | 8.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Anthony Kay Over | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | +115 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +116 | best price | 8.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Zebby Matthews Over | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -101 | DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact | 7.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Trey Yesavage Over | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -160 | DK Over 5.5 -160 | exact | 6.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Foster Griffin Over | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -110 | DK Over 4.5 -110 | exact | 5.3% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Mitch Keller Under | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -111 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -105 | best price | 4.7% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Drew Rasmussen Under | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | +106 | DK Under 4.5 +106 | exact | 4.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Framber Valdez Under | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | +121 | FanDuel Under 4.5 +124 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Parker Messick Over | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | 6.5 | 6.6 | +110 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -162 | alt rescue | 1.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min — would have capped at D | K Prop | Michael King Over | MET@PAD | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -110 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price | 0.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min — would have capped at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Young Under | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 14.9 | -107 | DK Under 17.5 -107 | exact | 14.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap -2.57 <= 3 min — would have capped at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 14.9 | -138 | DK Under 17.5 -138 | exact | 14.7% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +1.89 <= 3 min — would have capped at D | Pitcher Outs | Ryan Weathers Over | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 19.4 | -138 | DK Over 17.5 -138 | exact | 10.8% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min — would have capped at D | Pitcher Outs | Framber Valdez Under | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | +119 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 | best price | 5.6% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min — would have capped at D | Pitcher Outs | Parker Messick Over | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | 17.5 | 18.4 | -102 | DK Over 17.5 -102 | exact | 5.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min — would have capped at D | Pitcher Outs | Merrill Kelly Under | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 18.5 | 17.9 | -169 | DK Under 18.5 -169 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min — would have capped at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 18.0 | -166 | Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -165 | best price | 2.7% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min — would have capped at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesus Luzardo Over | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.9 | -140 | DK Over 17.5 -140 | exact | 2.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min — would have capped at D | Pitcher Outs | Drew Rasmussen Under | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | -115 | DK Under 17.5 -115 | exact | 2.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min — would have capped at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael King Under | MET@PAD | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.4 | -116 | DK Under 17.5 -116 | exact | 0.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check | Batter Hits | Sal Frelick Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.8 | -243 | DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact | 43.6% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check | Batter Hits | Blake Dunn Under | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 0.8 | -258 | DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact | 43.3% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check | Batter Hits | Jackson Chourio Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.8 | -188 | DK Under 1.5 -188 | exact | 43.1% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check | Batter Hits | Christian Yelich Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.8 | -202 | DK Under 1.5 -202 | exact | 43.1% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Jake Mangum Under | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -272 | DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact | 39.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Bo Bichette Under | MET@PAD | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -262 | DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact | 39.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Rafael Devers Under | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -257 | DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact | 36.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Trea Turner Under | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -241 | DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact | 35.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Hunter Goodman Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -257 | DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact | 34.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Bobby Witt Jr. Under | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -229 | DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact | 33.8% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Byron Buxton Under | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -256 | DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Tyler Freeman Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -185 | DK Under 1.5 -185 | exact | 31.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Ketel Marte Under | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -250 | DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact | 31.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | TJ Rumfield Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -259 | DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact | 29.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Julio Rodriguez Under | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -209 | DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact | 28.5% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Randy Arozarena Under | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -262 | DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact | 27.1% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -265 | DK Under 1.5 -265 | exact | 27.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Nico Hoerner Under | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -231 | DK Under 1.5 -231 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Ivan Herrera Under | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -227 | DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | JJ Wetherholt Under | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -246 | DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact | 25.4% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Brice Turang Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -223 | DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact | 24.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Michael Harris II Under | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -237 | DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Otto Lopez Under | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -252 | DK Under 1.5 -252 | exact | 18.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Chandler Simpson Under | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -209 | DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact | 16.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | William Contreras Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -209 | DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact | 15.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Luis Arraez Under | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -168 | DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact | 14.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Jordan Walker Under | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -267 | DK Under 1.5 -267 | exact | 14.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Jung Hoo Lee Under | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -262 | DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact | 8.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Alec Burleson Under | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -215 | DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact | 6.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min — would have capped at D | Batter Hits | Yandy Diaz Under | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -246 | DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact | 4.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree | Batter Total Bas | James Wood Over | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | +105 | DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact | 71.2% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Yandy Diaz Over | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | +117 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price | 63.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Kyle Schwarber Over | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | +102 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price | 63.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Jordan Walker Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | +107 | DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact | 61.9% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Ben Rice Over | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | +106 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price | 59.2% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Matt Olson Over | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | +120 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price | 58.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Brandon Lowe Over | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | +132 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price | 52.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Nathaniel Lowe Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | +124 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price | 52.5% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Alec Burleson Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -104 | DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact | 49.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Juan Soto Over | MET@PAD | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +116 | DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact | 49.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Junior Caminero Over | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +112 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price | 47.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | CJ Abrams Over | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +121 | DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact | 46.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Corbin Carroll Over | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -104 | DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact | 46.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Byron Buxton Over | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -119 | DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact | 44.1% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Bryce Harper Over | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +127 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 42.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Hunter Goodman Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -112 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price | 38.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Sal Stewart Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +117 | DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact | 38.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Jake Bauers Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +101 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price | 35.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Luis Rengifo Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -165 | DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact | 34.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Michael Harris II Over | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -106 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price | 33.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Kyle Karros Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -198 | DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact | 33.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Julio Rodriguez Over | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -110 | DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact | 32.8% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Jonathan Aranda Over | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +127 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 32.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Carter Jensen Under | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -172 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price | 31.3% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Daylen Lile Over | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +118 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price | 30.4% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Oneil Cruz Over | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +131 | DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact | 30.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Spencer Steer Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +132 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price | 29.6% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Vinnie Pasquantino Under | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -152 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -150 | best price | 26.4% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Brice Turang Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -103 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price | 24.4% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Fernando Tatis Jr. Under | MET@PAD | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -163 | DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact | 22.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Ketel Marte Over | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -101 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price | 22.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Garrett Mitchell Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -161 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price | 21.4% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | JJ Wetherholt Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +103 | DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact | 21.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Salvador Perez Under | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -178 | DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact | 20.4% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Sal Frelick Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -144 | DK Under 1.5 -144 | exact | 20.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Geraldo Perdomo Under | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -163 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price | 20.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Ivan Herrera Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +101 | DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Wilyer Abreu Over | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +139 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price | 19.5% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Ernie Clement Over | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +144 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price | 18.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Ronald Acuna Jr. Over | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +124 | DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact | 18.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Tyler Freeman Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -113 | DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact | 17.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Chase Meidroth Under | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -188 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -185 | best price | 17.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Ozzie Albies Over | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +130 | DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact | 17.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Cody Bellinger Over | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +133 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price | 17.2% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Bo Bichette Under | MET@PAD | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -161 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price | 16.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Dillon Dingler Over | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +135 | DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact | 15.7% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Ezequiel Tovar Under | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -165 | DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact | 15.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | William Contreras Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -108 | DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact | 14.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Randy Arozarena Over | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +112 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price | 14.6% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Otto Lopez Over | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +120 | DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact | 14.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Jose Ramirez Over | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +123 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price | 14.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Alec Bohm Under | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -170 | DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact | 13.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | TJ Rumfield Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +102 | DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact | 13.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Josh Naylor Under | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -189 | DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact | 12.3% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Trent Grisham Under | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -171 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price | 12.1% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Chase DeLauter Over | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +146 | DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact | 11.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Miguel Vargas Over | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +136 | DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact | 10.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Angel Martinez Over | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +140 | DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact | 9.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Gunnar Henderson Over | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +134 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price | 9.4% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Jake Mangum Over | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +127 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Brooks Lee Under | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -162 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price | 8.8% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Troy Johnston Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +115 | DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact | 8.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Xavier Edwards Over | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +140 | DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact | 7.4% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -138 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -135 | best price | 6.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Bobby Witt Jr. Over | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -108 | DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact | 6.8% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | J.P. Crawford Over | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +159 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +160 | best price | 6.3% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Masyn Winn Under | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -197 | DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact | 6.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Daulton Varsho Under | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -149 | DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact | 4.4% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Dylan Crews Over | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +127 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Curtis Mead Over | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +130 | DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact | 4.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Gabriel Moreno Over | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +135 | DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact | 4.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Pete Alonso Under | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -167 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -165 | best price | 3.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Kerry Carpenter Over | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +126 | DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact | 2.7% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Nick Gonzales Under | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -158 | DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact | 2.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Jackson Chourio Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -121 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price | 2.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Christian Yelich Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -116 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price | 2.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Jake McCarthy Over | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +113 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price | 2.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | George Springer Over | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +106 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price | 2.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Nathan Lukes Over | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +139 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price | 2.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Blake Dunn Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +116 | DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | JJ Bleday Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +125 | DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Eugenio Suarez Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +134 | DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Bryan Torres Over | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +145 | DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Bryan Reynolds Over | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +121 | DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact | 2.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Liam Hicks Under | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -198 | DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact | 1.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Kody Clemens Over | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +129 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 1.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Travis Bazzana Over | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +143 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Nolan Arenado Under | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -182 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -180 | best price | 0.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Trea Turner Over | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +102 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price | 0.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min — would have capped at D | Batter Total Bas | Chandler Simpson Under | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -155 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -150 | best price | 0.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Total | Over 7.5 | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | 7.5 | - | -105 | BetRivers Over 7 -125 | alt rescue | +22.3% | –✓–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Total | Under 11.0 | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | 11.0 | - | -110 | FanDuel Under 11.5 -115 | alt rescue | +19.1% | –✓–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Total | Over 7.5 | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | 7.5 | - | -111 | LowVig Over 7.5 -105 | best price | +16.1% | –✓–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Total | Over 7.0 | MET@PAD | 9:41 PM | 7.0 | - | -122 | DK Over 7 -122 | exact | +15.6% | –✓!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk High F5 edge 21% (≥18%) — verify model inputs / check line movement | F5 Total | Under 6.5 | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | 6.5 | - | -144 | FanDuel Under 6.5 -144 | exact | +20.6% | –✓–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | F5 Total | Under 6.5 | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | 6.5 | - | -128 | FanDuel Under 6.5 -128 | exact | +18.0% | –✓!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | F5 Total | Over 3.5 | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | 3.5 | - | -125 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | exact | +13.0% | –✓!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | F5 Total | Under 5.5 | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | 5.5 | - | -146 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | exact | +9.8% | –✓!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | - | 4.9 | -115 | DraftKings -115 | +2.6% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.8 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | MET@PAD | 9:41 PM | - | 4.8 | -146 | DraftKings -146 | -4.1% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.5 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | - | 4.5 | -128 | DraftKings -128 | -4.6% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | - | 3.6 | +106 | DraftKings +106 | -7.6% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.5 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | - | 4.5 | -150 | DraftKings -150 | -8.1% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | - | 3.9 | -115 | DraftKings -115 | -8.9% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | - | 4.0 | -128 | DraftKings -128 | -9.9% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | - | 3.5 | -104 | DraftKings -104 | -10.4% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | - | 4.2 | -156 | DraftKings -156 | -12.8% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | - | 3.5 | -128 | DraftKings -128 | -16.0% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.3 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | - | 2.3 | +116 | DraftKings +116 | -16.3% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.9 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | - | 2.9 | -115 | DraftKings -115 | -20.0% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.7 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | - | 2.7 | -113 | DraftKings -113 | -22.0% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.6 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | - | 2.6 | -111 | DraftKings -111 | -22.6% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — would have capped at D | NRFI | NRFI | ANG@DOD | 10:11 PM | - | 3.6 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -53.6% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 31% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | NAT@DIA | 9:41 PM | - | 7.3 | -113 | DraftKings -113 | +30.9% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 29% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | PIR@BRA | 7:16 PM | - | 7.1 | -111 | DraftKings -111 | +28.9% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 24% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | RED@CAR | 8:16 PM | - | 6.7 | -115 | DraftKings -115 | +23.9% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 22% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | GUA@RAN | 8:16 PM | - | 5.8 | +122 | DraftKings +122 | +21.8% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 21% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | BRE@ROC | 8:41 PM | - | 7.0 | -148 | DraftKings -148 | +20.7% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | - | 6.5 | -122 | DraftKings -122 | +19.5% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | - | 6.0 | +100 | DraftKings +100 | +18.8% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | SOX@PHI | 6:41 PM | - | 6.1 | -111 | DraftKings -111 | +17.8% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | - | 5.5 | +118 | DraftKings +118 | +17.3% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | RAY@MAR | 7:11 PM | - | 5.8 | +100 | DraftKings +100 | +16.8% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | GIA@CUB | 2:21 PM | - | 6.4 | -136 | DraftKings -136 | +16.4% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | - | 5.5 | +100 | DraftKings +100 | +13.5% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | MET@PAD | 9:41 PM | - | 5.2 | +114 | DraftKings +114 | +13.1% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | ROY@TWI | 8:16 PM | - | 5.1 | -111 | DraftKings -111 | +6.3% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | ANG@DOD | 10:11 PM | - | 5.7 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -25.6% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: DK disagrees | split consensus 44% (9 books) — would have capped at C | Run Line | Detroit Tigers +1.5 | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | - | -158 | LowVig Detroit Tigers 1.5 -154 | best price | +12.5% | –✓✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -144, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch — retained at B — would have c… | K Prop | Bryan Woo Over | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.7 | -144 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price | 22.3% | ✓✓!!–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage — downgraded to monitor/derisk — would have capped at C | F5 Total | Over 3.5 | MAR@TIG | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | - | -146 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -145 | best price | +8.5% | –✓!––✓ | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage — downgraded to monitor/derisk — would have capped at C | F5 Total | Over 3.5 | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 3.5 | - | -148 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | exact | +8.4% | –✓–––✓ | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script