MLB Betting Analyzer

Thursday, May 28 2026  |  Run at 1:04 AM
Game Bets · NRFI · K Props · Batter Props · Injuries · Weather
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PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

RecordWin%P&L
Overall88W–76L–0P54%-9.64 uLast 14 days • 164 settled
Grade A16W–17L–0P48%-5.64 u
Grade B72W–59L–0P55%-4.00 u

All-time

RecordWin%P&L
Overall560W–523L–7P52%-74.26 uAll-time • 1090 settled
Grade A113W–89L–0P56%-4.78 u
Grade B447W–434L–7P51%-69.49 u
5 pending

Pending Bets

DateTypePlayLineOddsSizeResultP&LActual
2026-05-11Pitcher Hits AllowNathan Eovaldi5.5-143-PENDING-
2026-05-14Batter Total BasesByron Buxton1.5-121-PENDING-
2026-05-17Batter Total BasesShea Langeliers1.5-138-PENDING-
2026-05-20Batter Total BasesKyle Schwarber1.5-131-PENDING-
2026-05-28Run LineBoston Red Sox+1.5-149-PENDING-

Recent Grade A Settled

DateTypePlayLineOddsSizeResultP&LActual
2026-05-27Run LineAthletics+1.5-148-LOSS-1.000Final: Seattle Mariners 9, Athletics 1

MARKET TRUST TIERS

16 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WR
K Prop✅ TRUSTED20455%-8.12u3152%-3.50u10858%
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED13560%+10.27u4351%-2.41u1100%
Run Line✅ TRUSTED10152%-4.26u3339%-11.23u3664%
F5 ML👀 WATCH2848%+4.54u0-+0.00u0-
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH2348%-2.10u933%-3.11u0-
Batter Hits👀 WATCH1681%+2.20u367%-0.26u0-
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH1567%+2.76u1567%+2.76u0-
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH1464%+1.00u1464%+1.00u0-
Batter Walks👀 WATCH1070%+2.43u1070%+2.43u0-
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH922%-5.18u0-+0.00u0-
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-
NRFI👀 WATCH333%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-
YRFI👀 WATCH2100%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH7541%-13.74u0-+0.00u10%
Total🔬 RESEARCH4238%-9.29u0-+0.00u1100%
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED40749%-57.64u0-+0.00u5545%

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/414d P&L non-negative
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research2/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix
ComponentStatusCurrent UsageRecommendation ImpactNext Action
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 0 candidate(s); season N 204, 14d N 31Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 0 candidate(s); season N 135, 14d N 43Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDActive recommendation market; 1 candidate(s); season N 101, 14d N 33Can produce Best Play / Good Add signals.Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessmentLIVEShared pitcher context; 12 starter assessment(s) emitted.Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch QualityLIVEFree public-data diagnostics; 12/12 assessment(s) scored.Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player ContextLIVEHome/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 16, 14d N 3Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 23, 14d N 9Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCHActive watch-stage market; 0 candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 75, 14d N 0Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s)Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.Validate forward results before promotion.
Total🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s); season N 42, 14d N 0Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCHResearch / held market; 0 candidate(s)Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.Validate forward results before promotion.
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 candidate(s); season N 407, 14d N 0No actionable recommendations.🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)No actionable recommendations.Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs⛔ PAUSEDPaused shadow market; 0 candidate(s)No actionable recommendations.Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research⛔ PAUSEDShadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI ReviewAPI ERROROptional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run
✓READYAvailableAI review: API error -- Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, read the docs: https://platform.openai.com/docs/guides/error-codes/api-errors.', 'type
✓READYAvailableSavant: 640 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓READYAvailableSavant 1st-inn: 253 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓READYAvailableTeam NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5
✓READYAvailablePitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 142 team×pitch-type combinations
✓READYAvailablePitcher arsenal: 630 pitcher(s), 2702 pitch-type profiles
✓READYAvailableBatter pitch-type profiles: 476 player(s)
✓READYAvailableHandedness: 12 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓READYAvailableTeam recent batting: 12 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴LATE DATANon-blockingLineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓READYAvailableBVP context: 12 roster team(s), 156 hitter(s) | 12 SP matchup(s), 860 career PA
✓READYAvailableBatter handedness: 156 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴LATE DATANon-blockingUmpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓READYAvailableRest data: 12 team(s) | Back-to-back: Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Atlanta Braves
✓READYAvailableBullpen data: 12 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles
✓READYAvailableBullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓READYAvailableWeather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓READYAvailableLine movement: 412 market side(s) checked | 412 opening snapshot(s) created | 0 with movement
✓READYAvailableMarket health: 16 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓READYAvailablePlayer context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹPARTIALNon-blockingF5: 6 game(s) fetched | 0 with ML odds | 6 with total odds | 1 play(s) above 8% edge
✓READYAvailableNo-HR model: 6 game(s) scored | 1 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob
✓READYAvailableHR layers: batter Statcast 521 | batter bats 265 | batter hand splits 169 | pitcher HR splits 76 | batter pitch-type 476 | bullpen HR 31
✓READYAvailableHR model: 36 batter(s) scored | 6 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction
MatchupTime (ET)Away MLHome MLAway RLHome RLTotalCon ML
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM+109-131+1.5 (-186)-1.5 (+153)O/U 9.0HOMEBet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox2:10 PM+113-136+1.5 (-188)-1.5 (+155)O/U 8.0HOMEBet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM-143+119-1.5 (+124)+1.5 (-149)O/U 7.0AWAYBet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles6:36 PM+113-136+1.5 (-187)-1.5 (+153)O/U 8.5HOMEBet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PM+144-175+1.5 (-157)-1.5 (+130)O/U 7.5HOMEBet on DK
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers8:06 PM+130-157+1.5 (-171)-1.5 (+141)O/U 7.5HOMEBet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

0 Grade A | 1 Grade B | 100 Derisk/Monitor | 0 Pass | 0 Fade
View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

Checks: Baby Line | Model Edge | Books Agree | Matchup | Role/Injury | Game Script - 0 Grade A | 1 Grade B | 100 Derisk/Monitor

No Grade A plays today.

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (1 play(s))
B GOOD ADD ✅ Good Add Run Line — Boston Red Sox +1.5 1.5 (-149) edge 10.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: LowVig Boston Red Sox 1.5 -138 | best price
Checks: –!✓✓–✓   ► GOOD ADD
▼ Key Factors & Flags (27)
  • [INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Herick Hernandez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [INJ] Daysbel Hernández (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Carter Holton (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • Model run margin: -0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
  • +1.5 gate PASS — EV $+13.02/$100
  • ✓ Cover prob 67.6% ≥ 60%
  • ✓ Edge 10.4% ≥ 5%
  • - Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
  • - L5 RL: 1 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
  • ✓ Odds -149 within price guard (-160 floor)
  • No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
  • Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
  • Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 103)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
  • Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.02
  • Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Chris Sale elite xFIP (3.21)
  • Payton Tolle small sample (36 IP) — stats 45% actual / 55% league avg (regression applied)
▼ Derisk / Monitor Plays (100 play(s))
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 (-142) diff 43.1% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -142 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 43.1% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.37K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -1.00)
  • Nathan Eovaldi: K/9 8.6, proj 7.9K over 6.3 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 32.0% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 151 PA | K% 27.2% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .252 | OPS .764
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 151 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.2%, L7 22.6%, season 21.1%, BVP 27.2%/151 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.10
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk K Prop — Jack Flaherty Under 6.5 (-131) diff 25.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -131 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗✓––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 25.5% vs 17% min): PASS
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -1.66K vs 1.0 min): PASS
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Jack Flaherty: K/9 10.4, proj 4.8K over 4.2 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS, recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
  • Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Jack Flaherty: 68 PA | K% 27.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .311 | OPS .766
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 68 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 25.8%, L7 23.2%, season 25.4%, BVP 27.9%/68 PA (adj 1.07x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 3/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (+106) diff 87.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact
Checks: ✓✓✗––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.39
  • Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.856 (22 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 29 PA | 12/23 | HR 2 | K% 17.2% | BB% 17.2% | OPS 1.499
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 29 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/56 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.39
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/26 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.62 | Away Batter TB: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.39
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
C ALT / DERISK 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Alt / Derisk No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (-110) diff 3.6% Bet on DK
Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 -110
Checks: ✓–––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Poisson lambda_adj=1.574 (raw=2.052, park_adj=+0.000, SP_z=-1.26)
  • No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.98x (base lambda 1.611)
  • Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
  • Davis Martin pitch-quality 1.02x (RV/100 +1.1, xwOBA 0.297, HH% 44.9, mix FF/CH, n=921)
  • Kendry Rojas pitch-quality 0.96x (RV/100 +0.9, xwOBA 0.276, HH% 20.1, mix FF/SL, n=227)
  • Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
  • Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
  • Chicago White Sox bullpen HR 1.01x (vulnerability 1.05, expected pen 2.9 IP)
  • Minnesota Twins bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.2 IP)
  • P(no HR) = 20.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 53.3%
  • Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
  • Park HR factor: 1.00 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
  • Home SP (Davis Martin): 0.0114 HR/BF Away SP (Kendry Rojas): 0.0000 HR/BF
  • Minnesota Twins Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • Chicago White Sox Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • Minnesota Twins Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
  • DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)
C ALT / DERISK 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Alt / Derisk No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 2.2% Bet on DK
Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 -110
Checks: ✓–––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Poisson lambda_adj=1.574 (raw=2.052, park_adj=+0.000, SP_z=-1.26)
  • No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.98x (base lambda 1.611)
  • Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
  • Davis Martin pitch-quality 1.02x (RV/100 +1.1, xwOBA 0.297, HH% 44.9, mix FF/CH, n=921)
  • Kendry Rojas pitch-quality 0.96x (RV/100 +0.9, xwOBA 0.276, HH% 20.1, mix FF/SL, n=227)
  • Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
  • Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
  • Chicago White Sox bullpen HR 1.01x (vulnerability 1.05, expected pen 2.9 IP)
  • Minnesota Twins bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.2 IP)
  • P(no HR) = 20.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 53.3%
  • Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
  • Park HR factor: 1.00 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
  • Home SP (Davis Martin): 0.0114 HR/BF Away SP (Kendry Rojas): 0.0000 HR/BF
  • Minnesota Twins Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • Chicago White Sox Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • Minnesota Twins Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
  • DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-112) edge 21.7% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -107 | best price
Checks: –✓–––✓   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • [INJ] Ryan Weiss (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
  • Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 101)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
  • Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.01
  • Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
  • Stats within normal range
⚠ ⚠ Totals model under recalibration — capped at B
⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-124) edge 20.3% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7 -120 | best price
Checks: –✓!–––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (20)
  • [INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Herick Hernandez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [INJ] Daysbel Hernández (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Carter Holton (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.0
  • Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
  • Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 103)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
  • Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.02
  • Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Chris Sale elite xFIP (3.21)
  • Payton Tolle small sample (36 IP) — stats 45% actual / 55% league avg (regression applied)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-128) edge 11.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox (F5)  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -110 | best price
Checks: –✓––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (21)
  • [INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Herick Hernandez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [INJ] Daysbel Hernández (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Carter Holton (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Fenway Park (HITTER)
  • Payton Tolle xFIP 3.90
  • Chris Sale xFIP 3.21
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 97)
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 103)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
  • F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
  • Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP)
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 34.0% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Chris Bassitt: xFIP 4.54, K% 19.3%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.345, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.444, K% 10.0%, BB% 13.3%, whiff% 22.0%
  • Patrick Corbin: xFIP 4.24, K% 17.6%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.361, whiff% 21.0% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.393, K% 14.3%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 17.7%
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 99)
  • Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.27, SO/G 0.49
  • Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Chris Bassitt: 57% (7 starts) | Patrick Corbin: 67% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.248 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -25.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +34.0%
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 34% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+104) edge 21.9% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +104
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Nathan Eovaldi: xFIP 3.51, K% 23.7%, BB% 6.2%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 32.0% | 1st inn full (37 PA): xwOBA 0.394, K% 32.4%, BB% 2.7%, whiff% 37.0%
  • Spencer Arrighetti: xFIP 4.56, K% 22.4%, BB% 11.5%, xwOBA 0.343, whiff% 28.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.337, K% 20.7%, BB% 6.9%, whiff% 23.9%
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 97)
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 101)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.78
  • Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
  • NRFI rate: Nathan Eovaldi: 56% (9 starts) | Spencer Arrighetti: 86% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 32-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge -12.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge +21.9%
⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 22% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+102) edge 15.9% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +102
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Jack Flaherty: xFIP 4.60, K% 24.5%, BB% 11.1%, xwOBA 0.351, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn full (47 PA): xwOBA 0.304, K% 27.7%, BB% 12.8%, whiff% 20.7%
  • Away SP (Grayson Rodriguez) -- used league avg
  • Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 97)
  • Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.51, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.62, SO/G 1.26
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Jack Flaherty: 70% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 29-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.341 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge -15.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge +15.9%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+120) edge 15.4% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +120
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Paul Skenes: xFIP 3.33, K% 27.4%, BB% 5.0%, xwOBA 0.248, whiff% 23.9% | 1st inn full (37 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 51.3%, BB% 2.7%, whiff% 33.0%
  • Colin Rea: xFIP 4.13, K% 19.0%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.355, whiff% 22.0% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 12.5%, BB% 9.4%, whiff% 17.6%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 100)
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 1.17
  • Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Paul Skenes: 70% (10 starts) | Colin Rea: 75% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -154 | implied 60.6% | model edge -6.5%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +120 | implied 45.5% | model edge +15.4%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+116) edge 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +116
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Payton Tolle: xFIP 3.90, K% 24.5%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.237, whiff% 25.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (21 PA): xwOBA 0.277, K% 33.3%, BB% 4.8%, whiff% 28.6%
  • Chris Sale: xFIP 3.21, K% 30.3%, BB% 6.4%, xwOBA 0.279, whiff% 29.7% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.285, K% 37.1%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 28.4%
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 97)
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 103)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.89
  • Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
  • NRFI rate: Payton Tolle: 67% (6 starts) | Chris Sale: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 11-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +7.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge +1.3%
C ALT / DERISK ↘ Alt / Derisk YRFI — YRFI (+114) edge -1.2% Bet on DK
Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings +114
Checks: ––––––   ► ALT / DERISK
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Davis Martin: xFIP 3.17, K% 28.4%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 28.6% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.215, K% 34.3%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 20.8%
  • Kendry Rojas: xFIP 4.29, K% 22.7%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 29.4% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (5 PA): xwOBA 0.458, K% 0.0%, BB% 20.0%, whiff% 25.0%
  • Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 101)
  • Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.61, SO/G 1.14 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.80
  • Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
  • NRFI rate: Davis Martin: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 12-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.312 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.254 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge +10.1%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge -1.2%
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Colin Rea Over 4.5 (-105) diff 16.3% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +116 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 16.3% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 48.2% / under 51.8%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.73K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Colin Rea: K/9 7.5, proj 5.2K over 6.3 IP (season 6.8 IP/GS, recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 13.9% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 40.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Colin Rea: 89 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 9.0% | AVG .321 | OPS .950
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 89 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.3%, L7 26.8%, season 23.6%, active roster 23.7%/8 hitters, BVP 20.2%/89 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 (+122) diff 9.5% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): FAIL (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.52K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Spencer Arrighetti: K/9 8.5, proj 6.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 28.5% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.343 | top pitch: Curveball (48% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 39 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .094 | OPS .444
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 39 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.7%, L7 23.0%, season 23.0%, active roster 21.0%/6 hitters, BVP 17.9%/39 PA (adj 0.97x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/7 (29%) | L20 2/7 (29%) | Season 2/7 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.71 | Season Avg 5.71
  • Prop trend: K L10: 2/7 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 (-157) diff 8.7% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -157 | exact
Checks: ✓✗!✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.39K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (2 books): 2/2 OVER -- DK HIGHER (delta +1.00)
  • Patrick Corbin: K/9 6.9, proj 4.1K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS, recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.361 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Corbin: 141 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.9% | AVG .318 | OPS .962
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 141 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.3%, L7 20.3%, season 24.2%, BVP 23.4%/141 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/9 (78%) | L20 7/9 (78%) | Season 7/9 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.56 | Season Avg 3.56
  • Prop trend: K L10: 7/9 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Chris Sale Over 7.5 (-137) diff 8.6% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 -130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✓!––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 8.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.64K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Chris Sale: K/9 10.6, proj 8.1K over 6.3 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 29.7% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 36.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .712
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 67 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.8%, L7 20.1%, season 22.0%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.20 | Season Avg 7.20
  • Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5
  • K% trend: support +4.2 ppts (recent 34.1% vs season 29.9%)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min
⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Chris Bassitt Under 4.5 (-157) diff 6.4% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -144 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 6.4% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.29K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Chris Bassitt: K/9 7.7, proj 4.2K over 5.7 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%)
  • Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 15.1% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
  • BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 76 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .279 | OPS .824
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 76 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.5%, L7 24.9%, season 19.4%, active roster 18.2%/6 hitters, BVP 17.1%/76 PA (adj 0.94x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.40
  • Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • K% trend: support +5.8 ppts (recent 21.1% vs season 15.3%)
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 6.5 (-118) diff 5.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -104 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 5.1% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +0.33K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Paul Skenes: K/9 9.7, proj 6.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.248 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 107 PA | K% 29.9% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .250 | OPS .759
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 107 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.2%, L7 22.4%, season 21.1%, active roster 20.6%/8 hitters, BVP 29.9%/107 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.91
  • Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Payton Tolle Under 5.5 (-114) diff 4.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.25K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (3 books): 0/3 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • Payton Tolle: K/9 8.8, proj 5.3K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
  • Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 23.9% | xwOBA 0.237 | top pitch: Curveball (47% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 17.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 24 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .042 | OPS .083
  • BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 24 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.3%, L7 22.4%, season 21.0%, active roster 20.3%/6 hitters, BVP 12.5%/24 PA (adj 0.92x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 under 5.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-143) diff 3.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗✓––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 3.6% vs 17% min): FAIL
  • Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
  • Trifecta 3 (Abs diff -0.20K vs 1.0 min): FAIL
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE (delta +0.00)
  • SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.9
  • Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.429 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Slider: 26.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
  • BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 13.9% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.078
  • BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 36 roster PA
  • Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.3%, L7 23.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.02x)
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
  • Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
  • Prop trend: K L10: 2/2 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Over 18.5 (+132) diff 15.3% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 21.326 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 15.3% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 111
  • BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .712
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.8%, L7 20.1%, season 22.0%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 7.6%, L7 8.8%, season 8.2%, BVP 6.0%/67 PA (adj 0.95x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.60
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.3% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.83 <= 3 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Pitcher Outs — Nathan Eovaldi Over 18.5 (-104) diff 12.1% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -104 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (18)
  • Proj 20.743 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 12.1% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
  • DK books agree: NO (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 117)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.3 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 117
  • BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 151 PA | K% 27.2% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .252 | OPS .764
  • Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.2%, L7 22.6%, season 21.1%, BVP 27.2%/151 PA (adj 0.98x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.8%, L7 7.5%, season 8.8%, BVP 10.6%/151 PA (adj 1.06x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 7.0 IP/start
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 18.50
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5
⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.1% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.24 <= 3 min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Under 18.5 (-188) diff 0.7% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -188 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (19)
  • Proj 18.379 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
  • Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.33 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
  • DK books agree: YES (over 39.0% / under 61.0%)
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
  • Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
  • Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
  • BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 107 PA | K% 29.9% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .250 | OPS .759
  • Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 20.2%, L7 22.4%, season 21.1%, BVP 29.9%/107 PA (adj 0.99x)
  • Opponent BB profile: composite 11.9%, split 12.6%, L7 11.0%, season 11.6%, BVP 12.2%/107 PA (adj 1.20x)
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
  • Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.9%
  • Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
  • Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.6%
  • Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
  • Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 16.36
  • Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 18.5; recent avg up +1.44 vs season
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-246) diff 27.0% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
  • Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.293)
  • Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.302 (14 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Chris Bassitt contact suppression 35 (adj 1.02x)
  • BVP vs Chris Bassitt: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Recent form: L10 10/31 (32%) | L5 6/13 (46%)
  • Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 38/54 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.04
  • Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter Hits: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 21/26 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min
⚠ Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+123) diff 59.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.16
  • Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.10x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.439 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Colin Rea: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 24/50 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.16
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/28 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 11/22 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter TB: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+113) diff 47.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.66
  • Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.33x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.429 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.883 (18 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 21/50 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.66
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/24 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 11/26 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.66
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.6% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (+135) diff 36.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.09x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Colin Rea: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .708
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/54 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/28 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 11/26 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (+139) diff 34.8% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.72
  • Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.18x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.762 (17 PA, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Arrighetti: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 22/50 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.72
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/21 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+130) diff 30.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.57
  • Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.24x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.429 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.480 (23 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/56 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.57
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 13/29 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.57
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+139) diff 30.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.61
  • Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.429 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.334 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 21/54 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.61
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/26 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 10/28 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-164) diff 29.5% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.29
  • Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.237 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 89, HR vulnerability 11 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 28/42 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.29
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/21 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 16/21 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 28/42 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.29
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+144) diff 23.8% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.64
  • Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.539 (21 PA, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Spencer Arrighetti contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Spencer Arrighetti: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 23/53 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/24 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 16/29 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.64
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+121) diff 20.9% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.87
  • Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.253 (39 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Patrick Corbin contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Patrick Corbin: 11 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .091
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 11 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 23/55 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.87
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 9/25 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.87
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+114) diff 20.8% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.62
  • Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (19 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Patrick Corbin contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Patrick Corbin: 66 PA | 21/55 | HR 5 | K% 18.2% | BB% 15.2% | OPS 1.179
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 66 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 24/56 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/30 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 14/26 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.62
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-158) diff 20.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.43
  • Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.237 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.484 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 89, HR vulnerability 11 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Payton Tolle: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 33/53 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.43
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/25 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-167) diff 19.1% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.47
  • Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.248 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.142 (23 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 17% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
  • BVP vs Paul Skenes: 14 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 7.1% | OPS 1.012
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 35/55 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+152) diff 18.8% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +152 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.71
  • Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.04x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.334 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Chris Bassitt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Chris Bassitt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/55 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.71
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/30 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 8/25 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+134) diff 18.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.68
  • Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.278 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/56 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.68
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 10/28 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 (-168) diff 13.8% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.61
  • Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.237 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.286 (33 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 89, HR vulnerability 11 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Payton Tolle: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 32/56 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.61
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/27 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 17/29 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 32/56 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.61
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+119) diff 13.3% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.67
  • Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.052 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 21/55 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/27 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-162) diff 12.9% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -160 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.31
  • Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.99x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.473 (17 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
  • BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 23 PA | 3/21 | HR 0 | K% 47.8% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .408
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 23 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 34/51 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.31
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/24 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 16/27 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.31
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+125) diff 11.9% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 2.11
  • Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.237 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.226 (19 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 89, HR vulnerability 11 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Payton Tolle: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 32/56 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.11
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/27 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 18/29 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter TB: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+129) diff 11.3% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.48
  • Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.524 (16 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 18/56 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.48
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/28 over 1.5 (25%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 18/56 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.48
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-152) diff 8.4% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -150 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.33
  • Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.03x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.304 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Chris Bassitt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Chris Bassitt: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 37/54 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.33
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/28 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 20/26 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.33
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Under 1.5 (-172) diff 7.4% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -170 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (17)
  • Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.29
  • Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.08x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.237 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Patrick Corbin contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Patrick Corbin: 19 PA | 6/17 | HR 1 | K% 15.8% | BB% 10.5% | OPS 1.009
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 19 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 36/55 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.29
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/30 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter TB: 13/25 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.29
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+140) diff 7.0% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.43
  • Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.12x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.112 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Colin Rea: 20 PA | 8/19 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS 1.292
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 20 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/56 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.43
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 10/27 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.43
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-198) diff 6.9% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.57
  • Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.207 (35 PA, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Chris Sale: 13 PA | 5/12 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.378
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 32/49 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.57
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.63 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/23 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 17/26 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.57
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+152) diff 4.4% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +152 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.41
  • Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.11x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.389 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Colin Rea: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 18/51 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.41
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/28 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 6/23 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.41
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 (+129) diff 4.1% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.47
  • Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.379 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Chris Bassitt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Chris Bassitt: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 21/53 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.47
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.2% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗––✓   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-178) diff 1.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
  • Basis: TB/G 1.28
  • Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.15x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.401 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
  • BVP vs Colin Rea: 14 PA | 5/12 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.167
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 29/50 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.28
  • Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
  • Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/26 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter TB: 13/24 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 29/50 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.28
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.3% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact
Checks: ✓✗✗––!   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (8)
  • Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+137) diff 0.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+123) diff 0.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter Total Bases — Matt Vierling Over 1.5 (+129) diff 0.2% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price
Checks: ✓✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: NO
  • Consensus (2 books): 0/2 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 70% min
⚠ Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor NRFI — NRFI (-146) edge 10.1% Bet on DK
Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox  |  Start: 2:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -146
Checks: –✗––––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Davis Martin: xFIP 3.17, K% 28.4%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 28.6% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.215, K% 34.3%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 20.8%
  • Kendry Rojas: xFIP 4.29, K% 22.7%, BB% 9.9%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 29.4% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (5 PA): xwOBA 0.458, K% 0.0%, BB% 20.0%, whiff% 25.0%
  • Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 101)
  • Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.61, SO/G 1.14 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.80
  • Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
  • NRFI rate: Davis Martin: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 12-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.312 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.254 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -146 | implied 59.3% | model edge +10.1%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +114 | implied 46.7% | model edge -1.2%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.0 below 7.7 threshold
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor NRFI — NRFI (-148) edge 7.7% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -148
Checks: –✗––––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Payton Tolle: xFIP 3.90, K% 24.5%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.237, whiff% 25.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (21 PA): xwOBA 0.277, K% 33.3%, BB% 4.8%, whiff% 28.6%
  • Chris Sale: xFIP 3.21, K% 30.3%, BB% 6.4%, xwOBA 0.279, whiff% 29.7% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.285, K% 37.1%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 28.4%
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 97)
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 124 (team avg 103)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.89
  • Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
  • NRFI rate: Payton Tolle: 67% (6 starts) | Chris Sale: 78% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 11-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +7.7%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge +1.3%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.9 below 7.7 threshold
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor NRFI — NRFI (-154) edge -6.5% Bet on DK
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates  |  Start: 6:41 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -154
Checks: –✗––––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Paul Skenes: xFIP 3.33, K% 27.4%, BB% 5.0%, xwOBA 0.248, whiff% 23.9% | 1st inn full (37 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 51.3%, BB% 2.7%, whiff% 33.0%
  • Colin Rea: xFIP 4.13, K% 19.0%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.355, whiff% 22.0% | 1st inn full (32 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 12.5%, BB% 9.4%, whiff% 17.6%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 100)
  • Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 100)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.75 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.63, SO/G 1.17
  • Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
  • NRFI rate: Paul Skenes: 70% (10 starts) | Colin Rea: 75% (8 starts)
  • All-game streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 14-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -154 | implied 60.6% | model edge -6.5%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +120 | implied 45.5% | model edge +15.4%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.7 below 7.7 threshold
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor NRFI — NRFI (-132) edge -12.9% Bet on DK
Game: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers  |  Start: 8:06 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132
Checks: –✗––––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)
  • Nathan Eovaldi: xFIP 3.51, K% 23.7%, BB% 6.2%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 32.0% | 1st inn full (37 PA): xwOBA 0.394, K% 32.4%, BB% 2.7%, whiff% 37.0%
  • Spencer Arrighetti: xFIP 4.56, K% 22.4%, BB% 11.5%, xwOBA 0.343, whiff% 28.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.337, K% 20.7%, BB% 6.9%, whiff% 23.9%
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 97)
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 101)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.78
  • Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
  • NRFI rate: Nathan Eovaldi: 56% (9 starts) | Spencer Arrighetti: 86% (7 starts)
  • All-game streak: 32-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 13-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge -12.9%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge +21.9%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor NRFI — NRFI (-130) edge -15.0% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130
Checks: –✗––––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (13)
  • Jack Flaherty: xFIP 4.60, K% 24.5%, BB% 11.1%, xwOBA 0.351, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn full (47 PA): xwOBA 0.304, K% 27.7%, BB% 12.8%, whiff% 20.7%
  • Away SP (Grayson Rodriguez) -- used league avg
  • Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 97)
  • Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.51, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.62, SO/G 1.26
  • Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
  • Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Jack Flaherty: 70% (10 starts)
  • All-game streak: 29-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.341 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge -15.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge +15.9%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge -25.0% Bet on DK
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles  |  Start: 6:36 PM
Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122
Checks: –✗––––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (12)
  • Chris Bassitt: xFIP 4.54, K% 19.3%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.345, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.444, K% 10.0%, BB% 13.3%, whiff% 22.0%
  • Patrick Corbin: xFIP 4.24, K% 17.6%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.361, whiff% 21.0% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.393, K% 14.3%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 17.7%
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 99)
  • Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.27, SO/G 0.49
  • Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Chris Bassitt: 57% (7 starts) | Patrick Corbin: 67% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.248 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -25.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +34.0%
⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 1.9 below 7.7 threshold
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Matt Vierling Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Gage Workman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Logan O'Hoppe Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Sandy León Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Eli White Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (7)
  • Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
  • Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 92.2% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0476
  • Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.82x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.237 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (9 PA)
  • Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 89, HR vulnerability 11 (adj 0.93x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 40/42 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/21 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 21/21 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 40/42 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.6% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0566
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.237 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.484 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 89, HR vulnerability 11 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Payton Tolle: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/53 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 86.5% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0556
  • Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.21x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.429 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.334 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 51/54 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0962
  • Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.83x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.196 (20 PA, adj 0.90x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Chris Sale: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 47/52 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-800) diff 82.3% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.0714
  • Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.24x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.429 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.480 (23 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 52/56 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.2% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1132
  • Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.521 (36 PA, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Chris Sale: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 47/53 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.4% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.4% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.237 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.086 (16 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 89, HR vulnerability 11 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Payton Tolle: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/56 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.0% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.237 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.286 (33 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 89, HR vulnerability 11 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Payton Tolle: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 48/56 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 71.0% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1633
  • Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.89x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.207 (35 PA, adj 0.91x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Chris Sale: 13 PA | 5/12 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS 1.378
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 13 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 41/49 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/23 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 22/26 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1429
  • Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.524 (16 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/56 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Wenceel Perez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 66.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)
  • Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1667
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 45/54 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 18/23 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 64.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2264
  • Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.79x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.237 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.161 (16 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 89, HR vulnerability 11 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Payton Tolle: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 43/53 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 21/28 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-900) diff 63.7% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.7% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1455
  • Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.25x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.429 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.422 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
  • BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.171 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 47/55 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/27 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.3% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1786
  • Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.06x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.278 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 47/56 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-800) diff 60.8% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.1731
  • Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.13x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.516 (15 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • BVP vs Jack Flaherty: 14 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .792
  • BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 43/52 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 22/26 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-900) diff 59.1% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (16)
  • Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2115
  • Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.97x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.834 (26 PA, adj 1.10x)
  • Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
  • BVP vs Chris Sale: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
  • BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 41/52 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/26 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 19/26 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 57.3% Bet on DK
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox  |  Start: 4:10 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)
  • Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.3% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2679
  • Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.80x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.237 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.88x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.226 (19 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 89, HR vulnerability 11 (adj 0.93x)
  • BVP vs Payton Tolle: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 41/56 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 18/29 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter HR: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-500) diff 51.9% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2364
  • Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.02x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.052 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Jack Flaherty contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 43/55 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 20/28 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
D MONITOR ◇ Monitor Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 46.6% Bet on DK
Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers  |  Start: 1:11 PM
Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price
Checks: –✗✗–––   ► MONITOR
▼ Key Factors & Flags (14)
  • Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.6% [individual]
  • Basis: HR/G 0.2000
  • Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.33x
  • Opp SP xwOBA 0.429 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
  • Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.883 (18 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
  • Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
  • DK books agree: YES
  • Consensus (1 books): 0/1 OVER -- IN LINE
  • Lineup: not yet confirmed
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 40/50 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
  • Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/24 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20
⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold
⚠ Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold
GradeGameTime (ET)TypeSideDK OddsImpliedModelEdgeEV/$100Books
CHouston Astros @ Texas Rangers8:06 PMTotalOver 7.5-11250.5%72.3%+21.7%$+36.769Bet on DK
CAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PMTotalOver 7.0-12452.9%73.2%+20.3%$+32.299Bet on DK
▼ Key Factors (2 play(s))
C Over 7.5 — Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers (Total)   +21.7%
  • [INJ] Ryan Weiss (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [OUT] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [IL] Cole Winn (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
  • Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
  • Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
  • Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
  • Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Houston Astros pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 101)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
  • Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.01
  • Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
  • Stats within normal range
C Over 7.0 — Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox (Total)   +20.3%
  • [INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Herick Hernandez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [INJ] Daysbel Hernández (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Carter Holton (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.0
  • Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs LHP (neutral)
  • Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
  • Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 97)
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 103)
  • Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
  • Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.02
  • Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Chris Sale elite xFIP (3.21)
  • Payton Tolle small sample (36 IP) — stats 45% actual / 55% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold
GradeGameTime (ET)TypeSideDK OddsImpliedModelEdgeEV/$100Books
CAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox (F5)4:10 PMF5 TotalOver 3.5-12852.6%63.8%+11.1%$+13.592Bet on DK
▼ Key Factors (1 play(s))
C Over 3.5 — Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 Total)   +11.1%
  • [INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Herick Hernandez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [INJ] Daysbel Hernández (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [DTD] Carter Holton (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
  • [INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • [OUT] Cade Fisher (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
  • [INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
  • F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
  • F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
  • Fenway Park (HITTER)
  • Payton Tolle xFIP 3.90
  • Chris Sale xFIP 3.21
  • Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 97)
  • Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 103)
  • F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
  • F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
  • F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
  • Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
  • Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%
GameTime (ET)Away SPHome SPSignal ScoreSignalV2 Result
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles6:36 PMPatrick CorbinChris Bassitt
8.1/10
YRFI MODELC ALT / DERISKBet on DK

NRFI/YRFI Model Signal Detail

PLAY YRFI Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles — Score 8.1/10   C ALT / DERISK
  • Chris Bassitt: xFIP 4.54, K% 19.3%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.345, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.444, K% 10.0%, BB% 13.3%, whiff% 22.0%
  • Patrick Corbin: xFIP 4.24, K% 17.6%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.361, whiff% 21.0% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.393, K% 14.3%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 17.7%
  • Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 99)
  • Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 97)
  • Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.54, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.27, SO/G 0.49
  • Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
  • NRFI rate: Chris Bassitt: 57% (7 starts) | Patrick Corbin: 67% (9 starts)
  • All-game streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 10-game YRFI (-0.2)
  • Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.248 vs SP's top pitch)
  • NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -25.0%
  • YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +34.0%
▼ Why no model signal? (5 games below threshold)
GameTime (ET)SPsNRFI / MinYRFI / MinEdgeWhy not
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox2:10 PMDavis Martin / Kendry Rojas6.0 / 7.74.0 / 7.7+10.1%Score 6.0 < 7.7 threshold
Away SP 1st-inn data partial (5 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PMPayton Tolle / Chris Sale5.9 / 7.74.1 / 7.7+7.7%Score 5.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 7.7% < 8% required
Home SP 1st-inn data partial (21 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PMPaul Skenes / Colin Rea4.7 / 7.75.3 / 7.7-6.5%Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -6.5% < 8% required
2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers8:06 PMNathan Eovaldi / Spencer Arrighetti3.8 / 7.76.2 / 7.7-12.9%Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -12.9% < 8% required
Away SP 1st-inn data partial (29 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PMJack Flaherty / Grayson Rodriguez ⚠ Away SP3.6 / 7.75.7 / 7.7-15.0%Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -15.0% < 8% required
Away SP (Grayson Rodriguez) stats unavailable — league avg used | Away SP 1st-inn data partial (6 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context
  • HR props parsed: 36 batter line(s)
  • Market discovery: batter_home_runs=36
  • Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
  • Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
  • Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
  • HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

TierPlayerTeamGameTime (ET)SpotPitcherBookOddsFirst HRHR ChanceMarket ImpliedEdgeChance ScoreFreshness
Best HR ChanceDillon DinglerDetroit TigersLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM-Grayson Rodriguez (R)theScore Bet+525-32.4%15.0%+17.4%99-
Best HR ChanceMike TroutLos Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM-Jack Flaherty (R)theScore Bet+325-31.5%22.0%+9.5%99-
Best HR ChanceJorge SolerLos Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM-Jack Flaherty (R)theScore Bet+475-30.5%16.4%+14.1%99-
Best HR ChanceZach NetoLos Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM-Jack Flaherty (R)theScore Bet+475-29.3%16.4%+13.0%98-
Best HR ChanceSpencer TorkelsonDetroit TigersLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM-Grayson Rodriguez (R)theScore Bet+500-27.0%15.6%+11.4%90-
HR Chance WatchlistWillson ContrerasBoston Red SoxAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM-Chris Sale (L)theScore Bet+500-24.5%15.6%+8.9%82-
Best HR ChanceJo AdellLos Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM-Jack Flaherty (R)theScore Bet+425-23.8%17.9%+5.9%79-
Strong HR ChanceMichael Harris IIAtlanta BravesAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM-Payton Tolle (L)theScore Bet+600-21.7%13.3%+8.4%72-
Strong HR ChanceMatt OlsonAtlanta BravesAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM-Payton Tolle (L)theScore Bet+475-18.9%16.4%+2.5%63-
HR Chance WatchlistJarren DuranBoston Red SoxAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM-Chris Sale (L)theScore Bet+900-11.5%9.4%+2.1%38-

Game HR Environments

TierGameTime (ET)ScoreP(1+ HR)Fair OddsTop ThreatsEnvironmentRisks
Strong HR EnvironmentLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM10088.5%-768Dillon Dingler, Mike Trout, Jorge Soler, Zach NetoComerica Park HR factor 0.91 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.5%-
Strong HR EnvironmentChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PM9986.1%-619-PNC Park HR factor 0.96 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%-
WatchlistHouston Astros @ Texas Rangers8:06 PM9385.7%-601-Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10-
WatchlistToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles6:36 PM9183.5%-505-Camden Yards HR factor 1.00-
WatchlistAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM9883.0%-490Willson Contreras, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Jarren DuranFenway Park HR factor 0.95-
WatchlistMinnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox2:10 PM7879.3%-383-Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 20.7%, P(U1.5) 53.3%
▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)
Best HR Chance Dillon Dingler — Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers (+525) HR chance 32.4% | edge +17.4%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.200, OPS 0.786, ISO 0.229, TB/G 1.66
  • Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.1/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.536
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 10/50 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.056, OPS 1.078 (36 PA)
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.801, ISO 0.229 (134 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.883, xwOBA 0.550 (18 PA)
  • Park HR factor 0.91
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable
Best HR Chance Mike Trout — Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers (+325) HR chance 31.5% | edge +9.5%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.236, OPS 0.871, ISO 0.242, TB/G 1.67
  • Statcast: barrel 20.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.0/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.568
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 12/55 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0396, xFIP 4.88, K% 24.4%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.351, xERA 5.06, whiff 24.2%
  • Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.000, OPS 0.766 (68 PA)
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.056, OPS 0.867, ISO 0.247 (178 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
Best HR Chance Jorge Soler — Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers (+475) HR chance 30.5% | edge +14.1%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.173, OPS 0.701, ISO 0.188, TB/G 1.48
  • Statcast: barrel 11.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.7/112.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.407
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 9/52 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0396, xFIP 4.88, K% 24.4%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.351, xERA 5.06, whiff 24.2%
  • BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.792, K% 42.9% (14 PA)
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.714, ISO 0.215 (155 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ BvP strikeout risk
Best HR Chance Zach Neto — Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers (+475) HR chance 29.3% | edge +13.0%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.179, OPS 0.765, ISO 0.201, TB/G 1.68
  • Statcast: barrel 12.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.8/109.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.419
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 9/56 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0396, xFIP 4.88, K% 24.4%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.351, xERA 5.06, whiff 24.2%
  • BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.804, K% 50.0% (8 PA)
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.044, OPS 0.762, ISO 0.214 (183 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ BvP strikeout risk
Best HR Chance Spencer Torkelson — Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers (+500) HR chance 27.0% | edge +11.4%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.145, OPS 0.727, ISO 0.199, TB/G 1.35
  • Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.1/109.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.402
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 8/55 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.171, K% 14.3% (7 PA)
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.039, OPS 0.672, ISO 0.183 (155 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.422, xwOBA 0.345 (26 PA)
  • Park HR factor 0.91
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable
HR Chance Watchlist Willson Contreras — Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox (+500) HR chance 24.5% | edge +8.9%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.211, OPS 0.887, ISO 0.230, TB/G 1.85
  • Statcast: barrel 15.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.9/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.534
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 11/52 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0225, xFIP 2.92, K% 29.9%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.279, xERA 3.06, whiff 29.7%
  • BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.375, K% 25.0% (8 PA)
  • Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.073, OPS 1.070, ISO 0.348 (55 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher
⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor
Best HR Chance Jo Adell — Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers (+425) HR chance 23.8% | edge +5.9%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.143, OPS 0.675, ISO 0.144, TB/G 1.48
  • Statcast: barrel 8.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.7/114.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.456
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 7/56 (12%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0396, xFIP 4.88, K% 24.4%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.351, xERA 5.06, whiff 24.2%
  • Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.013, OPS 0.588, ISO 0.074 (160 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.524, xwOBA 0.348 (16 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Weak batter split vs_rhp
⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
Strong HR Chance Michael Harris II — Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox (+600) HR chance 21.7% | edge +8.4%
  • Power baseline HR/G 0.226, OPS 0.846, ISO 0.223, TB/G 1.85
  • Statcast: barrel 16.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.4/114.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.575
  • Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 10/53 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
  • Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
  • Opp SP HR/BF 0.0193, xFIP 3.53, K% 27.9%
  • Savant xwOBA 0.237, xERA 2.20, whiff 25.2%
  • Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.047, OPS 0.763, ISO 0.183 (64 PA)
  • Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.161, xwOBA 0.156 (16 PA)
⚠ Lineup not confirmed
⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor
⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

PlayerGameTime (ET)OddsHR ChanceWhy lower
Mauricio DubonAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM+9001.0%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Ozzie AlbiesAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM+5503.0%Lineup not confirmed | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin BvP sample (3 PA) | Cold recent HR form
Ceddanne RafaelaAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM+8003.1%Lineup not confirmed | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | BvP strikeout risk
Kevin McGonigleLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM+5253.1%Lineup not confirmed | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable
Riley GreeneLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM+4753.9%Lineup not confirmed | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Cold recent HR form
Wilyer AbreuAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM+7004.0%Lineup not confirmed | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Cold recent HR form
Austin RileyAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM+4755.1%Lineup not confirmed | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Zach McKinstryLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM+10005.3%Batter team unresolved | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Pitcher season stats unavailable
Caleb DurbinAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PM+11005.6%Batter team unresolved | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Pitcher season stats unavailable
Colt KeithLos Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PM+7007.1%Batter team unresolved | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Pitcher season stats unavailable

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model &mdash; P(no HR)&ge;20% or P(under 1.5 HR)&ge;52.2% for a model signal
GameTime (ET)Home SPAway SPPark HRP(No HR)P(U 1.5)DK ImpliedEdgeV2 Result
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox2:10 PMDavis MartinKendry Rojas1.0020.7% PLAY53.3% PLAY——No HR C ALT / DERISK
U1.5 C ALT / DERISK
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox4:10 PMPayton TolleChris Sale0.9517.0%47.1%——
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles6:36 PMChris BassittPatrick Corbin1.0016.5%46.3%——
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers8:06 PMNathan EovaldiSpencer Arrighetti1.1014.3%42.0%——
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates6:41 PMPaul SkenesColin Rea0.9613.9%41.3%——
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers1:11 PMJack FlahertyGrayson Rodriguez0.9111.5%36.4%——

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox — PLAY: No HR (20.7%) | PLAY: Under 1.5 HR (53.3%)
  • Poisson lambda_adj=1.574 (raw=2.052, park_adj=+0.000, SP_z=-1.26)
  • No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.98x (base lambda 1.611)
  • Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
  • Davis Martin pitch-quality 1.02x (RV/100 +1.1, xwOBA 0.297, HH% 44.9, mix FF/CH, n=921)
  • Kendry Rojas pitch-quality 0.96x (RV/100 +0.9, xwOBA 0.276, HH% 20.1, mix FF/SL, n=227)
  • Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
  • Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
  • Chicago White Sox bullpen HR 1.01x (vulnerability 1.05, expected pen 2.9 IP)
  • Minnesota Twins bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.2 IP)
  • P(no HR) = 20.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 53.3%
  • Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
  • Park HR factor: 1.00 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
  • Home SP (Davis Martin): 0.0114 HR/BF Away SP (Kendry Rojas): 0.0000 HR/BF
  • Minnesota Twins Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • Chicago White Sox Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
  • Minnesota Twins Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
  • DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

12 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Payton TolleBoston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves70.558.089.05Curveball (47% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.237, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Paul SkenesPittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs66.353.483.56Changeup (34% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.248, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chris SaleAtlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox63.163.768.04Slider (39% whiff, 41% usage)Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kendry RojasMinnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox60.468.755.54Slider (35% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 26.3%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Davis MartinChicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins58.464.657.56Slider (54% whiff, 16% usage)Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nathan EovaldiTexas Rangers vs Houston Astros57.671.347.56Curveball (38% whiff, 20% usage)Savant whiff 32.0%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Spencer ArrighettiHouston Astros vs Texas Rangers46.762.036.06Curveball (48% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack FlahertyDetroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels42.249.532.05Curveball (38% whiff, 20% usage)Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Chris BassittBaltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays40.543.635.07Curveball (32% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Colin ReaChicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates36.141.630.07Slider (38% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Patrick CorbinToronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles35.940.127.05Slider (40% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grayson RodriguezLos Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers23.044.30.04Slider (35% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.429, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

12 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Chris SaleAtlanta Braves vs Boston Red SoxL30.3%6.66.26.3111deepfull68.0032.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Chris BassittBaltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysR19.3%5.15.95.786shortfull35.0065.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Payton TolleBoston Red Sox vs Atlanta BravesL24.5%6.06.06.0101deepfull89.0011.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Colin ReaChicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesR19.0%5.16.86.386shortfull30.0070.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Davis MartinChicago White Sox vs Minnesota TwinsR28.4%5.96.16.199normalfull57.5042.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Jack FlahertyDetroit Tigers vs Los Angeles AngelsR24.5%4.14.34.269shortfull32.0068.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.1 IP/start
Spencer ArrighettiHouston Astros vs Texas RangersR22.4%5.95.96.099normalfull36.0064.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.6%
Grayson RodriguezLos Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersR-4.2-5.570shortfull0.00100.00fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%, season_pitcher_stats_missing
Kendry RojasMinnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxL22.7%2.814.15.847shortfull55.5044.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 2.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Paul SkenesPittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsR27.4%6.25.56.0104deepfull83.5016.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 11.6%
Nathan EovaldiTexas Rangers vs Houston AstrosR23.6%7.06.16.3117deepfull47.5052.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Patrick CorbinToronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesL17.6%4.94.95.082shortfull27.0073.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

3/3 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Chris SaleChris Sale OverAtlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox18.521.32.815.3%DMONITORresearchdeep6.3111season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.3% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.83 <= 3 min
Nathan EovaldiNathan Eovaldi OverHouston Astros @ Texas Rangers18.520.72.212.1%DMONITORresearchdeep6.3117season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.1% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.24 <= 3 min
Paul SkenesPaul Skenes UnderChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates18.518.4-0.10.7%DMONITORresearchdeep6.0104season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

SectionWhat it shows
V2 Ranked PlaysGrade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate SweepEvery evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Market Trust TiersSettled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support trust tiers.
Market Promotion CriteriaThe concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Diagnostic vs Recommendation ImpactRuntime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data ReadinessInput availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's SlateDraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail SectionsMarket detail, diagnostics, and research sections below the V2 ranked plays.

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#CheckWhat it evaluatesPASS condition
1Baby LineLine size, batter opportunity, run-line cushionNo baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2Model EdgeProjection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3Books AgreeDK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other booksDK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4MatchupPark factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splitsPark/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5Role / InjuryConfirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concernsNo injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6Game ScriptCombined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spreadEnvironment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

GradeScoreRecommendationWhen to bet
A10–12, 0 FAILsBEST PLAYCore play — all six checks aligned
B7–9, ≤1 FAILGOOD ADDStrong play with minor caveats
C4–6PASSThin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D2–3 or model edge FAILPASSDo not bet — weak signal
F0–1HARD FADEConsider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Final Signals

Final Signal combines the model grade with market trust. Top Pick remains the rare flagship rule, while other signals show whether a strong model read is trusted, watch-listed, research-only, or paused.

SignalMeaning
⭐ TOP PICKExisting Top Pick rule: 100% book consensus plus a raw projection cushion of at least 1.5 units.
✅ Best PlayTrusted market with an A-grade model signal.
👀 Strong WatchWatch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; visible but not promoted to Top Pick.
🔬 Research LeadResearch-stage market with an A-grade model signal; diagnostics only until validation clears.
⛔ Paused SignalPaused market with an A/B model signal; shown so the signal is not lost, but not actionable.

Market Promotion Lifecycle

Markets move from paused to research to watch to trusted only when settled evidence clears the criteria shown in Market Promotion Criteria. This keeps a market from getting stuck in research without a clear path forward.

StageRecommendation behaviorEvidence needed
TrustedEligible for normal Best Play / Good Add output.Continue passing season and recent market-health checks.
WatchVisible as a valid signal, but not treated as fully trusted.Season sample, positive P&L, recent sample, recent P&L, and Grade A performance.
ResearchScored and audited, but held from actionable output until validation clears.Forward sample, positive season signal, recent win-rate support, and Grade A validation.
PausedShadow-only. No actionable recommendations.A redesigned/component signal plus settled validation before returning to research.

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug value. The model grade and market stage should be read together.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

PatternWhy it conflicts
Total Over + NRFIHigh-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFILow-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFIPitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total UnderPlayer production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

ElementMeaning
Progress barVisual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / totalRequests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

ColumnMeaning
Away ML / Home MLDraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RLRun line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
TotalOver/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con MLConsensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

ColumnMeaning
GradeV2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
TypeMoneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK OddsDraftKings price for that side
ImpliedDK implied probability after vig removal
ModelWin probability our model calculates independently
EdgeModel% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
BooksNumber of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

StepWhat it calculatesData sourceWeight
1. Pitching edge How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.
home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20
pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch
A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.		 FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck 50%
2. Offense edge How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.
home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100
off_edge = home_bat − away_bat
A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.		 MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 35%
3. Home field Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. Historical MLB average home-field effect +4%
4. Score diff score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)
The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.		 Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x)

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

SourceWeightStats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)65%xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)35%ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

StepCalculation
Base2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factorAverage of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factorAverage of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)
Park adjustmentRaw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage typeMeaning
Active recommendation marketTrusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked plays according to the V2 framework and market trust rules.
Held / gated marketResearch markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow researchPaused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only sourceContext layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

ComponentPurposeRecommendation impact today
PitcherAssessmentStarter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch QualityFree public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research GateShows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component ResearchBreaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player ContextHome/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI ReviewOptional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

StateImpactHow to read it
READYAvailableThe input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATANon-blockingThe feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIALNon-blockingThe source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLENon-blockingThe odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSINGNon-blocking unless marked otherwiseThe configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITEDNon-blockingThe run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKINGAction neededA core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

StateHow it is used
Pre-lineupActive-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineupExact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverageThe model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

ArtifactUse it for
Main HTML reportDaily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTMLCandidate-level debugging across best plays, good adds, passes, hard fades, and research holds.
Audit JSONMachine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance reportSettled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSVSingle source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

ColumnMeaning
Away SP / Home SPProbable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI ScoreComposite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

LabelEdge RequiredSuggested Unit Size
FULL≥20%Full unit
HALF≥15%Half unit
QRTR≥15%Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)<15%No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

LabelWhat it means
HIGHBoth pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MEDOne or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOWModel running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

TermDefinition
xFIPExpected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent formLast 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factorVenue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
EdgeModel win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 betsFirst 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK noteThe "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.