| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 125W–130L–2P | 49% | -29.88 u | Last 14 days • 257 settled |
| Grade A | 38W–27L–0P | 58% | +0.52 u | |
| Grade B | 87W–103L–2P | 46% | -30.40 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 494W–466L–7P | 51% | -66.60 u | All-time • 967 settled |
| Grade A | 107W–77L–0P | 58% | +2.89 u | |
| Grade B | 387W–389L–7P | 50% | -69.49 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | K Prop | Peter Lambert | 4.5 | -136 | - | WIN | +0.735 | Peter Lambert: 6.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-17 | K Prop | Grant Holmes | 4.5 | -158 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Grant Holmes: 4.0 (line 4.5) |
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | TRUSTED | 184 | 56% | -3.71u | 74 | 58% | +0.79u | 97 | 62% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | TRUSTED | 104 | 62% | +10.72u | 34 | 56% | +2.68u | 0 | - |
| Run Line | TRUSTED | 74 | 57% | +4.24u | 28 | 54% | -2.14u | 30 | 70% |
| F5 ML | WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 6 | 50% | +1.55u | 0 | - |
| Batter Total Bases | WATCH | 19 | 47% | -2.23u | 13 | 31% | -5.88u | 0 | - |
| Batter Hits | WATCH | 14 | 86% | +2.82u | 1 | 100% | +0.36u | 0 | - |
| No HR U1.5 | WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 2 | 50% | -0.09u | 0 | - |
| Moneyline | WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| NRFI | WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| YRFI | WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Outs | RESEARCH | 75 | 41% | -13.74u | 9 | 22% | -4.57u | 1 | 0% |
| Total | RESEARCH | 42 | 38% | -9.29u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | PAUSED | 407 | 49% | -57.64u | 60 | 37% | -21.26u | 55 | 45% |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.
| ✓ | Savant: 610 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 246 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 121 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Pitcher arsenal: 602 pitcher(s), 2589 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | Batter pitch-type profiles: 456 player(s) |
| ⚠ | PLV data unconfigured -- optional Pitcher List enrichment skipped |
| ✓ | Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | Lineups confirmed: 25 team(s), 225 player(s) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 28 roster team(s), 364 hitter(s) | 28 SP matchup(s), 1302 career PA |
| ✓ | Umpires confirmed: 13 game(s) |
| ✓ | Rest data: 28 team(s) | Back-to-back: Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, Athletics, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 28 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Cincinnati Reds, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox |
| ✓ | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | Weather: 6 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | Line movement: 2674 market side(s) checked | 156 opening snapshot(s) created | 1833 with movement |
| ✓ | Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled |
| ✓ | F5: 14 game(s) fetched | 14 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 1 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | HRR research: 225 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused) |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 13 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 498 | batter bats 173 | batter hand splits 173 | pitcher HR splits 79 | batter pitch-type 456 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 247 batter(s) scored | 14 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | -105 | -114 | -1.5 (+146) | +1.5 (-177) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | +114 | -137 | +1.5 (-184) | -1.5 (+152) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | +104 | -125 | -1.5 (+149) | +1.5 (-182) | O/U 10.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | -125 | +104 | -1.5 (+124) | +1.5 (-149) | O/U 10.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | +146 | -177 | +1.5 (-133) | -1.5 (+110) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:11 PM | -112 | -108 | -1.5 (+140) | +1.5 (-170) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 7:11 PM | +134 | -162 | +1.5 (-158) | -1.5 (+131) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | +135 | -163 | +1.5 (-136) | -1.5 (+113) | O/U 10.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | -105 | -114 | -1.5 (+140) | +1.5 (-169) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | -149 | +124 | -1.5 (+104) | +1.5 (-125) | O/U 9.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | -129 | +107 | -1.5 (+124) | +1.5 (-150) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +119 | -143 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | +135 | -163 | +1.5 (-167) | -1.5 (+137) | O/U 7.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | -149 | +124 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-144) | O/U 7.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | K Prop | Zac Gallen Under | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | -151 | DK Under 4.5 -151 | exact | 25.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -126 | 53.2% | 77.7% | +24.5% | $+39.37 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | Total | Over 9.0 | -105 | 49.0% | 70.7% | +21.7% | $+38.00 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | +102 | 47.4% | 68.7% | +21.3% | $+38.79 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Total | Over 7.0 | -122 | 52.6% | 68.6% | +16.0% | $+24.81 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Total | Under 10.0 | -105 | 49.0% | 64.6% | +15.5% | $+26.03 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners (F5) | 9:41 PM | F5 ML | Chicago White Sox | +135 | 40.1% | 49.0% | +8.9% | $+15.12 | 8 | Bet on DK |
| Game | Time (ET) | Away SP | Home SP | Signal Score | Signal | V2 Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 7:11 PM | Slade Cecconi | Framber Valdez | YRFI MODEL | C PASS |
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | Shane McClanahan / Trevor Rogers | 5.1 / 7.7 | 4.9 / 7.7 | +1.8% | Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.8% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Michael King / Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 4.8 / 7.7 | 5.2 / 7.7 | -0.6% | Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -0.6% < 8% required |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Shota Imanaga / Brandon Sproat | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.5 / 7.7 | +3.3% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 3.3% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | Jose Quintana / MacKenzie Gore | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.0 / 7.7 | -1.4% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -1.4% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | Zac Gallen / Robbie Ray | 4.4 / 7.7 | 5.4 / 7.7 | +0.6% | Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 0.6% < 8% required 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Walbert Ureña / J.T. Ginn | 4.3 / 7.7 | 5.7 / 7.7 | -2.4% | Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -2.4% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (15 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Jake Irvin / Christian Scott | 3.9 / 7.7 | 6.2 / 7.7 | -2.0% | Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -2.0% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate) |
| Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | Max Meyer / JR Ritchie | 3.4 / 7.7 | 6.6 / 7.7 | -16.0% | Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -16.0% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (15 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | Andrew Painter / Nick Lodolo ⚠ Away SP | 3.2 / 7.7 | 6.1 / 7.7 | -11.3% | Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -11.3% < 8% required Away SP (Nick Lodolo) stats unavailable — league avg used | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Bryan Woo / Noah Schultz | 3.1 / 7.7 | 6.9 / 7.7 | -23.3% | Score 3.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -23.3% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate) |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:11 PM | Seth Lugo / Sonny Gray | 3.0 / 7.7 | 7.0 / 7.7 | -17.1% | Score 3.0 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -17.1% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (28 PA < 30 gate) |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | Ryan Weathers / Patrick Corbin | 2.7 / 7.7 | 7.3 / 7.7 | -15.6% | Score 2.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -15.6% < 8% required |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | Kendry Rojas / Tatsuya Imai ⚠ Away SP | 2.5 / 7.7 | 6.8 / 7.7 | -21.9% | Score 2.5 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -21.9% < 8% required Away SP (Tatsuya Imai) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score | Freshness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | Ben Rice | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | 2 | Patrick Corbin (L) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 42.0% | 20.8% | +21.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | 2 | Nick Lodolo (L) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 42.0% | 19.7% | +22.3% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | 3 | Kendry Rojas (L) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 42.0% | 23.2% | +18.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | 2 | Andrew Painter (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 42.0% | 19.7% | +22.3% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Nathaniel Lowe | Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | 6 | Andrew Painter (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 42.0% | 15.6% | +26.3% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | 3 | Patrick Corbin (L) | theScore Bet | +160 | - | 41.9% | 35.7% | +6.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Casey Schmitt | San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 3 | Zac Gallen (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.8% | 17.1% | +24.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Josh Lowe | Los Angeles Angels | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 7 | J.T. Ginn (R) | theScore Bet | +700 | - | 41.8% | 11.7% | +30.1% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | 4 | Kendry Rojas (L) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.8% | 17.9% | +23.9% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Nick Kurtz | Athletics | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 3 | Walbert Ureña (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 41.5% | 23.2% | +18.3% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | 5 | Brandon Sproat (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.5% | 20.8% | +20.7% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | 3 | Trevor Rogers (L) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.5% | 20.8% | +20.7% | 99 | - |
| Strong HR Chance | Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | - | Trevor Rogers (L) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 41.3% | 15.6% | +25.7% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Dillon Dingler | Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 7:11 PM | 3 | Slade Cecconi (R) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 41.3% | 15.0% | +26.3% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 2 | Walbert Ureña (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 41.2% | 23.2% | +18.0% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | 2 | JR Ritchie (R) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 41.0% | 14.3% | +26.8% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | 4 | Brandon Sproat (R) | theScore Bet | +300 | - | 40.4% | 23.2% | +17.2% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | 1 | Max Meyer (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 40.3% | 19.7% | +20.6% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | 5 | Andrew Painter (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 40.3% | 20.8% | +19.5% | 99 | - |
| Best HR Chance | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | 2 | Bryan Woo (R) | theScore Bet | +275 | - | 40.1% | 24.6% | +15.5% | 99 | - |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | 100 | 93.5% | -1434 | Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger | Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 | Wind 12 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 6.5% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | 100 | 92.9% | -1313 | Bryce Harper, Elly De La Cruz, Nathaniel Lowe, Sal Stewart | Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 | Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | 100 | 92.2% | -1182 | Liam Hicks, Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II | loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | 100 | 91.4% | -1065 | Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Julio Rodriguez | T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.6% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | 100 | 91.0% | -1011 | Josh Lowe, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Mike Trout | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.0% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | 100 | 89.6% | -860 | Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Michael Conforto, Jake Bauers | Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 | Wind 11 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.4% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | 100 | 88.2% | -746 | Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Ryan Jeffers, Zach Dezenzo | Target Field HR factor 0.95 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:11 PM | 100 | 87.9% | -730 | Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | Wind 18 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 7:11 PM | 100 | 87.2% | -679 | Dillon Dingler, Angel Martinez, Jose Ramirez, Spencer Torkelson | Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 | Precip chance 55% -- delay/postponement risk | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | 100 | 87.0% | -668 | Juan Soto, James Wood, Mark Vientos, Daylen Lile | Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0% | - |
| Watchlist | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | 100 | 85.9% | -608 | Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Gunnar Henderson | Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 | - |
| Watchlist | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | 100 | 85.6% | -594 | Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Shohei Ohtani, Gavin Sheets | Petco Park HR factor 0.85 | - |
| Watchlist | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | 100 | 83.3% | -500 | Casey Schmitt, Ildemaro Vargas, Corbin Carroll, Eric Haase | Chase Field HR factor 1.02 | - |
| Watchlist | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | 100 | 83.0% | -489 | Hunter Goodman, Jake Burger, Kyle Higashioka, TJ Rumfield | Coors Field HR factor 1.20 | Cold (44F) -- pitchers' grip affected, less carry | Precip chance 54% -- delay/postponement risk | - |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 7:11 PM | +1600 | 0.4% | Low lineup spot (7) | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Thin batter pitch-type sample (6 PA) | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | +600 | 0.4% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Luke Keaschall | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | +1000 | 0.5% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Jeff McNeil | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | +1000 | 0.5% | Low lineup spot (7) | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Cold recent HR form |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | +800 | 0.5% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) | Cold weather 44F | Cold recent HR form |
| Matt Chapman | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | +600 | 0.6% | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Kyle Karros | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | +1000 | 0.7% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) | Thin BvP sample (1 PA) | Cold weather 44F | Cold recent HR form |
| Ernie Clement | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | +900 | 1.0% | Low season HR rate | Elite strikeout pitcher | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) |
| Sal Frelick | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | +1000 | 1.2% | Low lineup spot (8) | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Weak batter split vs_lhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Weston Wilson | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | +800 | 1.2% | Batter stats team Athletics does not match game teams | Low lineup spot (8) | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_lhp |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 8:41 PM | Jose Quintana | MacKenzie Gore | 1.20 | 17.0% | 47.1% | — | — | |
| San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:41 PM | Zac Gallen | Robbie Ray | 1.02 | 16.7% | 46.6% | 10.5% | +6.2% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 9:41 PM | Michael King | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 0.85 | 14.4% | 42.3% | 8.0% | +6.4% | |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | 6:41 PM | Shane McClanahan | Trevor Rogers | 0.94 | 14.1% | 41.8% | 9.4% | +4.8% | |
| New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | 6:46 PM | Jake Irvin | Christian Scott | 1.02 | 13.0% | 39.6% | 5.7% | +7.3% | |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 7:11 PM | Framber Valdez | Slade Cecconi | 0.91 | 12.8% | 39.2% | 10.3% | +2.5% | |
| Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 7:11 PM | Seth Lugo | Sonny Gray | 0.93 | 12.1% | 37.6% | 6.6% | +5.5% | |
| Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | 7:41 PM | Kendry Rojas | Tatsuya Imai | 0.95 | 11.8% | 37.1% | 7.9% | +3.9% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 7:41 PM | Shota Imanaga | Brandon Sproat | 1.05 | 10.4% | 34.0% | 3.5% | +6.9% | |
| Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | Walbert Ureña | J.T. Ginn | 0.98 | 9.0% | 30.7% | 6.6% | +2.4% | |
| Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | Bryan Woo | Noah Schultz | 0.92 | 8.6% | 29.7% | 8.9% | -0.3% | |
| Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | 6:41 PM | Max Meyer | JR Ritchie | 0.88 | 7.8% | 27.7% | 8.6% | -0.8% | |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | 6:41 PM | Andrew Painter | Nick Lodolo | 1.10 | 7.1% | 25.8% | 5.7% | +1.4% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | Ryan Weathers | Patrick Corbin | 1.18 | 6.5% | 24.3% | 4.5% | +2.0% |
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | PLV/PLA | PLV Quality | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | R | 17.9% | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 72 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 27.50 | 72.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 20.7% | 5.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 89 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| JR Ritchie | Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | R | 20.3% | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 21.3% | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 69 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.8%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | R | 17.3% | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 79 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 24.6% | 6.4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 107 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.3%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Noah Schultz | Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | L | 21.6% | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | R | 19.2% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 82 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 29.50 | 70.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jose Quintana | Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers | L | 15.6% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 21.7% | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.5%, low-K contact opponent 19.8%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9%, pitcher stats fallback, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox | R | 20.7% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 94 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | R | 22.6% | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 69.50 | 30.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | R | 24.8% | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 106 | deep | full | - | unconfigured | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | R | 26.6% | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 92 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | R | 23.6% | 4.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 82 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.9%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Kendry Rojas | Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | L | 22.9% | 2.4 | - | 5.1 | 40 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 25.50 | 74.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 2.4 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | R | 25.4% | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 60 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 3.6 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 28.5% | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 96 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.1%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 19.5% | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 76 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 32.50 | 67.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 24.8% | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.4%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 22.9% | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | R | 22.8% | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 94 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 25.5% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | L | 22.7% | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | - | unconfigured | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Patrick Corbin | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | L | 16.8% | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 79 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 17.00 | 83.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 12.1%, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | R | 22.7% | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 77 | short | full | - | unconfigured | 21.50 | 78.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, Pitcher PLV unconfigured |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | Zac Gallen Under | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 13.1 | -4.4 | C | PASS | research | short | 4.8 | 72 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Framber Valdez | Framber Valdez Under | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | 18.5 | 14.8 | -3.7 | C | PASS | research | short | 5.5 | 86 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree |
| Shota Imanaga | Shota Imanaga Over | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 19.4 | 1.9 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.1 | 107 | season+recent+savant+hand | ⚠ Pitcher outs hook-risk gate: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS | deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start | hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.3% | deep-start support: assessment deep leash | hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.3% -- thin Over capped at C |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Under | Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 18.5 | 16.7 | -1.8 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.8 | 94 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres | 18.5 | 20.1 | 1.6 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.2 | 106 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree |
| MacKenzie Gore | MacKenzie Gore Under | Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.4 | 89 | season+recent+savant+hand | ⚠ Pitcher outs Under gate: raw gap 1.5 without hook-risk support -- capped at C |
| Seth Lugo | Seth Lugo Over | Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.8 | 94 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min |
| Ryan Weathers | Ryan Weathers Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 17.5 | -0.0 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.7 | 96 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ildemaro Vargas | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 3.28 | 1.44 | 0.77 | 1.07 | 2.88 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=38,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 3.24 | 1.33 | 1.05 | 0.85 | 3.13 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Shea Langeliers | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 3.21 | 1.47 | 1.03 | 0.72 | 2.64 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Over 1.5 | 3.16 | 1.13 | 1.26 | 0.77 | 2.20 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| Ben Rice | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 3.12 | 1.18 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 3.28 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| CJ Abrams | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 3.02 | 1.12 | 0.76 | 1.14 | 2.52 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.98 | 1.13 | 0.85 | 0.99 | 3.03 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| James Wood | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.98 | 1.01 | 1.21 | 0.75 | 2.48 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.94 | 1.25 | 0.78 | 0.92 | 3.10 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Bryce Harper | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.73 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 2.35 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Otto Lopez | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.71 | 1.47 | 0.68 | 0.56 | 2.44 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Yandy Diaz | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.70 | 1.56 | 0.62 | 0.51 | 2.52 / Over | 0.64 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| William Contreras | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Over 1.5 | 2.69 | 1.13 | 0.69 | 0.87 | 2.12 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model |
| Daylen Lile | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.63 | 1.10 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 2.28 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Cody Bellinger | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Over 1.5 | 2.62 | 1.03 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 2.92 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Liam Hicks | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.59 | 1.02 | 0.62 | 0.94 | 2.66 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Nick Kurtz | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.58 | 0.99 | 0.76 | 0.83 | 2.18 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Xavier Edwards | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.56 | 1.31 | 0.89 | 0.36 | 2.33 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.55 | 1.00 | 0.68 | 0.87 | 2.49 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=48,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ozzie Albies | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Over 1.5 | 2.53 | 1.16 | 0.82 | 0.55 | 2.24 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Casey Schmitt | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.52 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 2.44 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=39,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.51 | 0.94 | 0.68 | 0.89 | 2.30 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Seiya Suzuki | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Over 1.5 | 2.51 | 1.00 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 2.38 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=33,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Luis Arraez | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 1.5 | 2.48 | 1.44 | 0.63 | 0.41 | 2.35 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ian Happ | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Over 1.5 | 2.48 | 0.89 | 0.97 | 0.61 | 2.19 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.