| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 146W–155L–3P | 49% | -36.70 u | Last 14 days • 304 settled |
| Grade A | 40W–27L–0P | 60% | +2.25 u | |
| Grade B | 106W–128L–3P | 45% | -38.95 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 491W–463L–7P | 51% | -65.94 u | All-time • 961 settled |
| Grade A | 106W–76L–0P | 58% | +3.15 u | |
| Grade B | 385W–387L–7P | 50% | -69.09 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | K Prop | Davis Martin | 4.5 | -159 | - | WIN | +0.629 | Davis Martin: 7.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-16 | K Prop | Jose Soriano | 5.5 | -131 | - | WIN | +0.763 | José Soriano: 6.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-16 | K Prop | Trevor McDonald | 4.5 | -141 | - | WIN | +0.709 | Trevor McDonald: 5.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-16 | K Prop | Cade Cavalli | 4.5 | -148 | - | WIN | +0.676 | Cade Cavalli: 8.0 (line 4.5) |
| 2026-05-16 | K Prop | Justin Wrobleski | 5.5 | -164 | - | WIN | +0.610 | Justin Wrobleski: 5.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-16 | K Prop | Jameson Taillon | 4.5 | -155 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Jameson Taillon: 2.0 (line 4.5) |
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | TRUSTED | 182 | 56% | -3.44u | 75 | 59% | +1.64u | 95 | 62% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | TRUSTED | 102 | 62% | +10.48u | 37 | 62% | +5.91u | 0 | - |
| Run Line | TRUSTED | 74 | 57% | +4.24u | 29 | 52% | -3.14u | 30 | 70% |
| F5 ML | WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 10 | 50% | +2.00u | 0 | - |
| Batter Total Bases | WATCH | 18 | 50% | -1.23u | 12 | 33% | -4.88u | 0 | - |
| Batter Hits | WATCH | 13 | 85% | +2.46u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| No HR U1.5 | WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 2 | 50% | -0.09u | 0 | - |
| Moneyline | WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| NRFI | WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| YRFI | WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - |
| Pitcher Outs | RESEARCH | 75 | 41% | -13.74u | 12 | 17% | -7.57u | 1 | 0% |
| Total | RESEARCH | 42 | 38% | -9.29u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | PAUSED | 407 | 49% | -57.64u | 74 | 39% | -23.08u | 55 | 45% |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.
| ✓ | Savant: 603 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 243 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 119 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Pitcher arsenal: 595 pitcher(s), 2557 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | Batter pitch-type profiles: 455 player(s) |
| ⚠ | PLV data unavailable/unconfigured -- optional Pitcher List enrichment skipped |
| ✓ | Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | Lineups confirmed: 22 team(s), 198 player(s) |
| ✓ | BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) | 30 SP matchup(s), 1227 career PA |
| ✓ | Umpires confirmed: 11 game(s) |
| ✓ | Rest data: 30 team(s) | Back-to-back: San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians, Athletics, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 30 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds |
| ✓ | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | Weather: 3 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | Line movement: 2736 market side(s) checked | 610 opening snapshot(s) created | 1577 with movement |
| ✓ | Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | F5: 15 game(s) fetched | 15 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 0 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | HRR research: 234 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused) |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored | 1 above probability threshold | 11 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 495 | batter bats 172 | batter hand splits 172 | pitcher HR splits 74 | batter pitch-type 455 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | HR model: 266 batter(s) scored | 15 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 12:16 PM | +123 | -149 | +1.5 (-174) | -1.5 (+143) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 1:36 PM | +129 | -156 | +1.5 (-156) | -1.5 (+129) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 1:36 PM | -123 | +102 | -1.5 (+128) | +1.5 (-155) | O/U 10.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1:36 PM | +109 | -131 | -1.5 (+172) | +1.5 (-210) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | +133 | -161 | +1.5 (-156) | -1.5 (+129) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 1:41 PM | -131 | +108 | -1.5 (+134) | +1.5 (-162) | O/U 7.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 1:41 PM | +102 | -123 | -1.5 (+152) | +1.5 (-185) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | -131 | +109 | -1.5 (+124) | +1.5 (-149) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 2:11 PM | -124 | +103 | -1.5 (+137) | +1.5 (-166) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 2:11 PM | -129 | +107 | -1.5 (+129) | +1.5 (-156) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | +102 | -123 | -1.5 (+152) | +1.5 (-184) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | -144 | +119 | -1.5 (+107) | +1.5 (-129) | O/U 10.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 4:06 PM | +124 | -149 | +1.5 (-162) | -1.5 (+134) | O/U 9.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 4:08 PM | -142 | +118 | -1.5 (+113) | +1.5 (-136) | O/U 9.5 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 7:21 PM | +135 | -163 | +1.5 (-162) | -1.5 (+134) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | K Prop | Grant Holmes Over | SOX@BRA | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | -160 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -150 | best price | 30.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Time (ET) | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 1:41 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -115 | 51.1% | 70.8% | +19.7% | $+32.36 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1:36 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | +100 | 47.8% | 66.8% | +19.0% | $+33.57 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| C | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 12:16 PM | Total | Over 7.5 | -104 | 48.7% | 67.6% | +18.9% | $+32.67 | 9 | Bet on DK |
No bets meet the threshold today.
| Game | Time (ET) | Away SP | Home SP | Signal Score | Signal | V2 Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | Stephen Kolek | Andre Pallante | YRFI MODEL | C PASS |
| Game | Time (ET) | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 12:16 PM | Drew Rasmussen / Eury Pérez | 6.4 / 7.7 | 3.6 / 7.7 | +16.6% | Score 6.4 < 7.7 threshold |
| New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 1:41 PM | Freddy Peralta / Elmer Rodríguez | 5.8 / 7.7 | 4.2 / 7.7 | +12.2% | Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold Away SP 1st-inn data thin (12 PA < 30 gate) |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1:36 PM | Paul Skenes / Zack Wheeler | 5.2 / 7.7 | 4.8 / 7.7 | -3.1% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -3.1% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (15 PA < 30 gate) |
| San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 7:21 PM | George Kirby / Lucas Giolito ⚠ Away SP | 5.2 / 7.7 | 3.6 / 7.7 | +0.0% | Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge 0.0% < 8% required Away SP (Lucas Giolito) stats unavailable — league avg used | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 1:41 PM | Jack Flaherty / Kevin Gausman | 5.1 / 7.7 | 4.9 / 7.7 | -0.2% | Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -0.2% < 8% required |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | Gavin Williams / Brady Singer | 4.7 / 7.7 | 5.3 / 7.7 | -1.9% | Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -1.9% < 8% required |
| Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 2:11 PM | Peter Lambert / Nathan Eovaldi | 4.3 / 7.7 | 5.7 / 7.7 | -7.2% | Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -7.2% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate) |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 1:36 PM | Richard Lovelady / Brandon Young | 4.2 / 7.7 | 5.8 / 7.7 | +1.7% | Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge 1.7% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (29 PA < 30 gate) |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 2:11 PM | Bailey Ober / Robert Gasser ⚠ Away SP | 4.2 / 7.7 | 5.2 / 7.7 | -10.3% | Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -10.3% < 8% required Away SP (Robert Gasser) stats unavailable — league avg used | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 1:36 PM | Grant Holmes / Brayan Bello | 3.2 / 7.7 | 6.8 / 7.7 | -17.2% | Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -17.2% < 8% required |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 4:08 PM | Grayson Rodriguez / Roki Sasaki ⚠ Home SP | 3.2 / 7.7 | 5.7 / 7.7 | -16.2% | Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge -16.2% < 8% required Home SP (Grayson Rodriguez) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate) | 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 4:06 PM | Jeffrey Springs / Adrian Houser | 2.9 / 7.7 | 6.7 / 7.7 | -18.6% | Score 2.9 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -18.6% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | Michael Lorenzen / Michael Soroka | 2.7 / 7.7 | 6.8 / 7.7 | -16.3% | Score 2.7 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -16.3% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable |
| Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | Erick Fedde / Colin Rea | 2.4 / 7.7 | 7.6 / 7.7 | -26.1% | Score 2.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -26.1% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Time (ET) | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | HR Chance | Market Implied | Edge | Chance Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best HR Chance | Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | 4 | Stephen Kolek (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 42.0% | 15.6% | +26.4% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 1:36 PM | 1 | Brayan Bello (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 42.0% | 17.9% | +24.1% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | 4 | Colin Rea (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 42.0% | 20.8% | +21.2% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 2:11 PM | 2 | Nathan Eovaldi (R) | theScore Bet | +275 | - | 42.0% | 24.6% | +17.4% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 1:36 PM | 3 | Brayan Bello (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 42.0% | 20.8% | +21.2% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | James Wood | Washington Nationals | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 1:36 PM | 1 | Brandon Young (R) | theScore Bet | +260 | - | 42.0% | 25.8% | +16.2% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | 3 | Colin Rea (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 42.0% | 16.4% | +25.6% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | 2 | Colin Rea (R) | theScore Bet | +260 | - | 42.0% | 25.8% | +16.2% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 1:36 PM | 4 | Brayan Bello (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 42.0% | 15.6% | +26.3% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | - | Brady Singer (R) | theScore Bet | +550 | - | 41.9% | 14.3% | +27.6% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 1:36 PM | 4 | Grant Holmes (R) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 41.9% | 15.0% | +26.9% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | 4 | Erick Fedde (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 41.9% | 17.9% | +24.0% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Nick Kurtz | Athletics | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 4:06 PM | - | Adrian Houser (R) | theScore Bet | +230 | - | 41.9% | 28.0% | +13.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 4:08 PM | - | Grayson Rodriguez (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 41.8% | 18.8% | +23.1% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 4:06 PM | - | Adrian Houser (R) | theScore Bet | +250 | - | 41.8% | 26.4% | +15.3% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 2:11 PM | 3 | Nathan Eovaldi (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 41.7% | 17.1% | +24.6% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 4:08 PM | - | Roki Sasaki (R) | theScore Bet | +375 | - | 41.6% | 19.7% | +21.9% | 99 |
| Strong HR Chance | Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 12:16 PM | 2 | Drew Rasmussen (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 41.3% | 10.4% | +30.8% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | - | Michael Lorenzen (R) | theScore Bet | +350 | - | 41.2% | 20.8% | +20.4% | 99 |
| Best HR Chance | Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 1:36 PM | 5 | Brandon Young (R) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 41.2% | 15.0% | +26.3% | 99 |
| Tier | Game | Time (ET) | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 1:36 PM | 100 | 95.3% | -2014 | Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Willson Contreras | Truist Park HR factor 1.03 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 4.7% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | 100 | 95.1% | -1942 | Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Munetaka Murakami, Ian Happ | Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 4.9% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | 100 | 92.9% | -1303 | Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson | Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 | Wind 16 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | 100 | 91.1% | -1028 | Angel Martinez, Nathaniel Lowe, Chase DeLauter, Sal Stewart | Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.9% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 1:36 PM | 100 | 91.1% | -1022 | James Wood, Daylen Lile, CJ Abrams, Brady House | Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.9% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 2:11 PM | 100 | 90.8% | -988 | Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Zach Cole, Brice Matthews | Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 1:41 PM | 100 | 90.3% | -928 | Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Mark Vientos | Citi Field HR factor 0.93 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.7% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 4:08 PM | 100 | 88.8% | -791 | Max Muncy, Mike Trout, Jorge Soler, Andy Pages | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.2% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1:36 PM | 100 | 88.2% | -750 | Brandon Lowe, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Oneil Cruz | PNC Park HR factor 0.96 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.8% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | 100 | 86.8% | -659 | Corbin Carroll, Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, Ildemaro Vargas | Coors Field HR factor 1.20 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2% | - |
| Watchlist | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 12:16 PM | 100 | 85.2% | -577 | Liam Hicks, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Owen Caissie | Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 | - |
| Watchlist | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 4:06 PM | 100 | 84.6% | -548 | Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Casey Schmitt, Jesus Rodriguez | Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 | Wind 14 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN | - |
| Watchlist | San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 7:21 PM | 100 | 82.4% | -469 | Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone, Gavin Sheets, Julio Rodriguez | T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 | - |
| Watchlist | Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 1:41 PM | 100 | 81.0% | -428 | Dillon Dingler, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Brandon Valenzuela, Daulton Varsho | Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 | - |
| Pass | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 2:11 PM | 84 | 73.3% | -275 | Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Ryan Jeffers | Target Field HR factor 0.95 | Wind 12 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect | No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 26.7%, P(U1.5) 62.0% |
| Player | Game | Time (ET) | Odds | HR Chance | Why lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Tovar | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | +700 | 0.5% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Luke Keaschall | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 2:11 PM | +1100 | 0.5% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Cold recent HR form |
| Kyle Karros | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | +1000 | 0.6% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Cold recent HR form |
| Garrett Mitchell | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 2:11 PM | +525 | 0.6% | Low lineup spot (7) | Low season HR rate | Elite contact-quality suppressor | Thin batter pitch-type sample (6 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 1:36 PM | +525 | 0.6% | Low season HR rate | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Thin BvP sample (2 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Jeff McNeil | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 4:06 PM | +1100 | 0.6% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Wind 14 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN | Cold recent HR form |
| Justin Crawford | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1:36 PM | +1200 | 0.7% | Low lineup spot (9) | Low season HR rate | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor |
| Masyn Winn | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | +1000 | 0.8% | Low season HR rate | Weak batter split vs_rhp | Thin BvP sample (4 PA) | Cold recent HR form |
| Matt Chapman | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 4:06 PM | +475 | 0.8% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Wind 14 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN | Cold recent HR form |
| Luis Arraez | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 4:06 PM | +1000 | 0.9% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Thin BvP sample (5 PA) | Wind 14 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN |
| Game | Time (ET) | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge | V2 Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 2:11 PM | Bailey Ober | Robert Gasser | 0.95 | 26.7% MODEL SIGNAL | 62.0% MODEL SIGNAL | 9.7% | +17.0% | No HR C PASS U1.5 C PASS |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 1:41 PM | Jack Flaherty | Kevin Gausman | 0.91 | 19.0% | 50.5% | 9.0% | +9.9% | |
| San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 7:21 PM | George Kirby | Lucas Giolito | 0.92 | 17.6% | 48.1% | — | — | |
| San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 4:06 PM | Jeffrey Springs | Adrian Houser | 1.00 | 15.4% | 44.3% | — | — | |
| Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 12:16 PM | Drew Rasmussen | Eury Pérez | 0.94 | 14.8% | 43.0% | 11.2% | +3.5% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | 3:11 PM | Michael Lorenzen | Michael Soroka | 1.20 | 13.2% | 39.9% | — | — | |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1:36 PM | Paul Skenes | Zack Wheeler | 0.96 | 11.8% | 36.9% | 13.3% | -1.5% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | 4:08 PM | Grayson Rodriguez | Roki Sasaki | 0.98 | 11.2% | 35.8% | — | — | |
| New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 1:41 PM | Freddy Peralta | Elmer Rodríguez | 0.93 | 9.7% | 32.4% | 5.3% | +4.4% | |
| Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 2:11 PM | Peter Lambert | Nathan Eovaldi | 1.00 | 9.2% | 31.1% | 6.7% | +2.5% | |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | 1:36 PM | Richard Lovelady | Brandon Young | 1.02 | 8.9% | 30.5% | 5.6% | +3.3% | |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 1:41 PM | Gavin Williams | Brady Singer | 0.95 | 8.9% | 30.4% | 8.3% | +0.6% | |
| Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:16 PM | Andre Pallante | Stephen Kolek | 0.93 | 7.1% | 26.0% | 10.1% | -3.0% | |
| Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | 2:11 PM | Erick Fedde | Colin Rea | 1.00 | 4.9% | 19.7% | 5.9% | -1.0% | |
| Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | 1:36 PM | Grant Holmes | Brayan Bello | 1.03 | 4.7% | 19.2% | 8.7% | -3.9% |
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Risk Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | R | 22.8% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | L | 21.5% | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 80 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | R | 20.1% | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 77 | short | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | R | 19.1% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Brayan Bello | Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | R | 18.9% | 4.7 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 79 | short | full | 14.50 | 85.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | R | 19.8% | 4.7 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 79 | short | full | 27.00 | 73.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs | R | 16.2% | 5.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 86 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.7% |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 16.2% | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 79 | short | full | 17.50 | 82.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 27.2% | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 107 | deep | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 17.2% | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 91 | normal | full | 21.00 | 79.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Jack Flaherty | Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 23.7% | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 55 | short | full | 29.50 | 70.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 3.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.2% |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | R | 23.5% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Stephen Kolek | Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 21.4% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.4%, pitcher stats fallback |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 20.5% | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 80 | short | full | 22.50 | 77.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 25.8% | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0%, pitcher stats fallback |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 20.1% | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 107 | deep | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.3% |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs New York Yankees | R | 22.4% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.9% |
| Elmer Rodríguez | New York Yankees vs New York Mets | R | 17.9% | 4.1 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 69 | short | full | 0.50 | 99.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 22.9% | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 102 | deep | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 29.5% | 6.4 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 107 | deep | full | 98.50 | 1.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Lucas Giolito | San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2%, pitcher stats fallback |
| Adrian Houser | San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | R | 15.0% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 25.00 | 75.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres | R | 20.4% | 5.7 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 96 | normal | full | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | R | 20.8% | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | R | 23.8% | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 87 | normal | full | 69.50 | 30.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | R | 22.6% | 6.6 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 111 | deep | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | - |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | R | 19.7% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Richard Lovelady | Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 24.8% | 1.4 | 18.1 | 5.9 | 24 | short | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+hand | recent leash 1.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kolek | Stephen Kolek Under | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 14.6 | -2.9 | C | PASS | research | short | 5.5 | 86 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Andre Pallante | Andre Pallante Under | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | C | PASS | research | normal | 5.4 | 91 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Jeffrey Springs | Jeffrey Springs Under | San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | C | PASS | research | short | 5.3 | 80 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree |
| Gavin Williams | Gavin Williams Over | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 19.7 | 2.2 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.2 | 107 | season+recent+savant+hand | ⚠ Pitcher outs hook-risk gate: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS | deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start | hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4% | deep-start support: assessment deep leash | hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.4% -- thin Over capped at C |
| Paul Skenes | Paul Skenes Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 19.3 | 1.8 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 107 | season+recent+savant+hand | Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 25% (4 books) — strongly disagree |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Nathan Eovaldi Over | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 19.3 | 1.8 | C | PASS | research | deep | 6.0 | 111 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Over | San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.8 | C | PASS | research | normal | 6.2 | 96 | season+recent+savant+hand | Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back |
| Peter Lambert | Peter Lambert Under | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 16.3 | -1.2 | C | PASS | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs held from actionable output -- research only |
| Drew Rasmussen | Drew Rasmussen Under | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.3 | 87 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min |
| Kevin Gausman | Kevin Gausman Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.6 | D | PASS | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min |
| Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler Under | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | D | PASS | research | deep | 5.9 | 102 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min |
| Bailey Ober | Bailey Ober Over | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | D | PASS | research | deep | 5.9 | 107 | season+recent+savant+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 3.10 | 1.20 | 0.87 | 1.03 | 3.55 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| CJ Abrams | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 3.04 | 1.14 | 0.78 | 1.13 | 2.64 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians | Over 1.5 | 2.97 | 1.33 | 0.94 | 0.70 | 2.58 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Victor Scott II | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.93 | 1.53 | 0.66 | 0.74 | 2.61 / Over | 0.59 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | Over 1.5 | 2.91 | 1.13 | 1.03 | 0.75 | 2.67 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins | Over 1.5 | 2.83 | 1.17 | 1.02 | 0.64 | 2.56 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=40,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Josh Lowe | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.77 | 1.44 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 2.38 / Over | 0.64 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Oneil Cruz | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 1.5 | 2.76 | 1.20 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 2.61 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Aaron Judge | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | Over 1.5 | 2.74 | 1.03 | 0.92 | 0.79 | 2.72 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Alec Burleson | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.71 | 1.17 | 0.56 | 0.99 | 2.47 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | Over 1.5 | 2.70 | 1.11 | 0.63 | 0.96 | 2.52 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Miguel Vargas | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | Over 1.5 | 2.66 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 2.57 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Munetaka Murakami | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | Over 1.5 | 2.65 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.80 | 2.53 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Yordan Alvarez | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Over 1.5 | 2.65 | 1.28 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 2.93 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=47,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Daylen Lile | Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals | Over 1.5 | 2.64 | 1.11 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 2.36 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ozzie Albies | Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | Over 1.5 | 2.60 | 1.20 | 0.81 | 0.59 | 2.83 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| JJ Wetherholt | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.59 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.57 | 2.19 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Ivan Herrera | Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Over 1.5 | 2.58 | 1.38 | 0.66 | 0.54 | 2.27 / Over | 0.64 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Nico Hoerner | Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | Over 1.5 | 2.54 | 1.19 | 0.63 | 0.72 | 2.08 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Yandy Diaz | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.49 | 1.42 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 2.44 / Over | 0.64 | exact_hrr_l10,lineup | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | Over 2.5 | 3.48 | 1.48 | 0.83 | 1.18 | 3.36 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=37,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.46 | 1.40 | 0.59 | 0.47 | 2.44 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Jonathan Aranda | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | Over 1.5 | 2.44 | 1.05 | 0.54 | 0.85 | 2.58 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Brandon Lowe | Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 1.5 | 2.43 | 1.02 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 2.38 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=40,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
| Cody Bellinger | New York Yankees @ New York Mets | Over 1.5 | 2.43 | 0.98 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 2.31 / Over | 0.30 | season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.