MLB Bets 2026-05-16

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	172W–172L–4P	50%	-32.78 u	Last 14 days • 348 settled
Grade A	40W–27L–0P	60%	+2.66 u
Grade B	132W–145L–4P	48%	-35.44 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	483W–455L–7P	51%	-64.11 u	All-time • 945 settled
Grade A	101W–75L–0P	57%	+0.77 u
Grade B	382W–380L–7P	50%	-64.87 u

18 pending

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-05-15	Run Line	Los Angeles Angels	+1.5	119	-	LOSS	-1.000	Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 6, Los Angele
2026-05-15	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft	5.5	-137	-	LOSS	-1.000	Braxton Ashcraft: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-05-15	K Prop	Jack Leiter	5.5	-128	-	WIN	+0.781	Jack Leiter: 6.0 (line 5.5)
2026-05-15	K Prop	Spencer Arrighetti	5.5	-116	-	LOSS	-1.000	Spencer Arrighetti: 5.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

13 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR
K Prop	TRUSTED	176	55%	-5.83u	74	58%	+1.99u	89	61%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	TRUSTED	97	63%	+11.34u	37	65%	+7.28u	0	-
Run Line	TRUSTED	71	58%	+5.60u	27	52%	-2.79u	30	70%
F5 ML	WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	13	40%	+0.00u	0	-
Batter Total Bases	WATCH	16	56%	+0.77u	11	45%	-2.17u	0	-
Batter Hits	WATCH	13	85%	+2.46u	1	100%	+0.43u	0	-
No HR U1.5	WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	2	50%	-0.09u	0	-
Moneyline	WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
NRFI	WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
YRFI	WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-
Pitcher Outs	RESEARCH	75	41%	-13.74u	19	26%	-7.83u	1	0%
Total	RESEARCH	42	38%	-9.29u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%
Batter H+R+RBI	PAUSED	407	49%	-57.64u	104	39%	-31.69u	55	45%

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	Savant: 603 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	Savant 1st-inn: 243 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 116 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	Pitcher arsenal: 595 pitcher(s), 2550 pitch-type profiles
✓	Batter pitch-type profiles: 452 player(s)
⚠	PLV data unavailable/unconfigured -- optional Pitcher List enrichment skipped
✓	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	Lineups confirmed: 30 team(s), 270 player(s)
✓	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 840 career PA
✓	Umpires confirmed: 15 game(s)
✓	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Los Angeles Dodgers, Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, Miami Marlins, Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Dodgers, Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	Line movement: 1466 market side(s) checked \| 144 opening snapshot(s) created \| 905 with movement
✓	Market health: 13 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	F5: 8 game(s) fetched \| 8 with ML odds \| 0 with total odds \| 1 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	HRR research: 121 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	No-HR model: 8 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 8 with DK implied prob
✓	HR layers: batter Statcast 493 \| batter bats 171 \| batter hand splits 171 \| pitcher HR splits 75 \| batter pitch-type 452 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	HR model: 141 batter(s) scored \| 8 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	-113	-107	-1.5 (+137)	+1.5 (-166)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	-149	+123	-1.5 (+114)	+1.5 (-137)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	-132	+109	-1.5 (+123)	+1.5 (-149)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+107	-129	+1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	-126	+105	-1.5 (+133)	+1.5 (-161)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners	7:16 PM	+144	-175	+1.5 (-156)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-136	+113	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	9:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

1 Grade A  |  4 Grade B  |  541 Pass  |  0 Fade

Grade A Best Plays — 1 play(s)

Grade	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
A	K Prop	Davis Martin Over	CUB@SOX	7:11 PM	4.5	-159	BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 \| best price	66.3%	✓✓✓✓–✓	BEST PLAY

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script

View Full Audit →

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

A BEST PLAY K Prop — Davis Martin Over 4.5 (-159) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 | best price

Checks: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► BEST PLAY

▼ Key Factors & Flags (15)

Trifecta 1 (DIFF% 66.3% vs 17% min): PASS
Trifecta 2 (DK books agree): PASS (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Trifecta 3 (Abs diff +2.98K vs 1.0 min): PASS
Consensus (6 books): 4/6 OVER -- DK LOWER (delta -0.50)
Davis Martin: K/9 9.6, proj 7.5K over 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%, elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 23.3% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Slider (53% whiff, 15% usage)
Umpire: Brian O'Nora — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .495
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/8 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 30.3% vs season 27.1%)
Line movement: price worsened (odds -156->-159)
A-tier gate: 67% consensus, but diff_pct 66.3% >= 21.3% and raw gap 2.98 >= 1.00

▼ Good Adds — Grade B (4 play(s))

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Elder Under 5.5 (-146) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact

Checks: ✓✓✓––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 3.2199999999999998 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 41.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.69 (WHIP 1.07, BB% 9.0%)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- DK HIGHER
Opp batting adj: -0.2 hits (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 93)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryce Elder: 40 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .243 | OPS .678
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/9 (78%) | L20 7/9 (78%) | Season 7/9 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.89 | Season Avg 3.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/9 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Line movement: toward this side (line 4.5->5.5, odds +114->-146)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (-114) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 3.6175 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 34.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 (WHIP 1.06, BB% 7.2%)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.3% / under 49.7%)
Consensus (3 books): 2/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.71 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/7 under 5.5
Line movement: price worsened (odds -109->-114)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor McDonald Under 5.5 (+117) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +117 | exact

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (10)

Proj 4.36 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 (WHIP 1.20, BB% 7.8%)
DK books agree: NO (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor McDonald: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 1/2 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

B GOOD ADD Pitcher Hits Allowed — Luis Severino Under 5.5 (+101) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +115 | best price

Checks: ✓✓!––! ► GOOD ADD

▼ Key Factors & Flags (11)

Proj 4.47 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 (WHIP 1.44, BB% 11.7%)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus (3 books): 3/3 OVER -- IN LINE
Opp batting adj: -0.2 hits (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 91)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Luis Severino: 95 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 8.4% | AVG .238 | OPS .648
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/9 under 5.5
Line movement: price worsened (odds +105->+101)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Home back-to-back | Away back-to-back

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-117	51.5%	71.6%	+20.1%	$+32.77	9	Bet on DK
C	San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners	7:16 PM	Total	Over 7.0	-117	51.5%	68.5%	+17.0%	$+26.99	9	Bet on DK
C	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-117	51.5%	68.0%	+16.5%	$+26.11	9	Bet on DK
C	New York Yankees @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	Total	Over 8.5	-107	49.5%	64.7%	+15.2%	$+25.13	9	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (4 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves (Total) +20.1%

[IL] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Eduardo Rivera (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rayven Antonio (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Dylan Dodd (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Bryce Elder (RHP) | opp wRC+ 88 vs RHP (favorable)
Away SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs LHP (neutral)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.01)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 114 (team 104)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 96 (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Payton Tolle small sample (22 IP) — stats 27% actual / 73% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.0 — San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners (Total) +17.0%

[IL] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Kannon Kemp (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 90 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Walker Buehler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 99)
San Diego Padres confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 88 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 0.95
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Walker Buehler small sample (36 IP) — stats 45% actual / 55% league avg (regression applied)
Line movement: price improved (odds -122->-117)

C Over 7.5 — Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (Total) +16.5%

[OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Chris Martin (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Sandy Mejia (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Ryan Weiss (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Kai-Wei Teng (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jacob deGrom (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (neutral)
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Houston Astros confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 116 (team 102)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 96 (team 97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Jacob deGrom elite xFIP (3.43)
Houston Astros strong offense (wRC+ 116)
Kai-Wei Teng small sample (26 IP) — stats 32% actual / 68% league avg (regression applied)
Line movement: toward this side (line 8->7.5, odds -104->-117)

C Over 8.5 — New York Yankees @ New York Mets (Total) +15.2%

[INJ] Yerry De los Santos (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Max Fried (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tyler Burch (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Luis Alvarez (New York Mets) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Dedniel Núñez (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Cesar Rivera (New York Mets) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Huascar Brazobán (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Carlos Rodón (LHP) | opp wRC+ 85 vs LHP (favorable)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 84 (team 94)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 119 (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 10 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
New York Yankees strong offense (wRC+ 119)
New York Mets weak offense (wRC+ 84)
Huascar Brazobán small sample (21 IP) — stats 26% actual / 74% league avg (regression applied)
Carlos Rodón small sample (4 IP) — stats 5% actual / 95% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 ML	Houston Astros	+145	38.5%	48.2%	+9.7%	$+17.99	8	Bet on DK

▼ Key Factors (1 play(s))

C Houston Astros — Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (F5) (F5 ML) +9.7%

[OUT] Julius Sanchez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Chris Martin (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Sandy Mejia (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Ryan Weiss (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Juan Nunez (Houston Astros) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Kai-Wei Teng xFIP 4.06
Jacob deGrom xFIP 3.43
Houston Astros confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 116 (team 102)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 97)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kai-Wei Teng (RHP)
Away SP: Jacob deGrom (RHP)
Line movement: price improved (odds +130->+145)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (8 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners	7:16 PM	Logan Gilbert / Walker Buehler	5.8 / 7.7	4.2 / 7.7	+5.8%	Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 5.8% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (27 PA < 30 gate)
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	Kai-Wei Teng / Jacob deGrom	5.1 / 7.7	4.9 / 7.7	-0.0%	Score 5.1 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -0.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (10 PA < 30 gate)
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Bryce Elder / Payton Tolle	4.7 / 7.7	5.3 / 7.7	-6.5%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -6.5% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (14 PA < 30 gate)
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	José Soriano / Justin Wrobleski	4.7 / 7.7	5.3 / 7.7	+1.3%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 1.3% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (26 PA < 30 gate)
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	Davis Martin / Jameson Taillon	4.5 / 7.7	5.5 / 7.7	-1.7%	Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -1.7% < 8% required
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	Connor Prielipp / Logan Henderson	4.4 / 7.7	5.6 / 7.7	-3.5%	Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -3.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (18 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (11 PA < 30 gate)
New York Yankees @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	Huascar Brazobán / Carlos Rodón	4.3 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	-5.0%	Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -5.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (8 PA < 30 gate) \| Away SP 1st-inn data thin (4 PA < 30 gate)
San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Luis Severino / Trevor McDonald	3.6 / 7.7	6.4 / 7.7	-5.9%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -5.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (8 PA < 30 gate)

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 141 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=141
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score
Best HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	4	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	42.0%	25.8%	+16.2%	99
Best HR Chance	Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	2	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	42.0%	26.4%	+15.6%	99
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	1	Huascar Brazobán (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	42.0%	18.8%	+23.2%	99
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	3	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	42.0%	17.9%	+24.1%	99
Best HR Chance	Aaron Judge	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	2	Huascar Brazobán (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	41.9%	27.2%	+14.7%	99
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	6	José Soriano (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	41.7%	16.4%	+25.4%	99
Best HR Chance	Shea Langeliers	Athletics	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	9:41 PM	2	Trevor McDonald (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	41.0%	22.0%	+19.0%	99
Best HR Chance	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	9:41 PM	1	Trevor McDonald (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	40.8%	24.6%	+16.2%	99
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	5	José Soriano (R)	theScore Bet	+700	-	40.8%	11.7%	+29.0%	99
Best HR Chance	Casey Schmitt	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	9:41 PM	3	Luis Severino (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	40.7%	16.4%	+24.3%	99
HR Chance Watchlist	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	3	Jacob deGrom (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	40.7%	25.8%	+14.9%	99
HR Chance Watchlist	Christian Walker	Houston Astros	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	4	Jacob deGrom (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	38.8%	17.9%	+21.0%	99
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	2	Justin Wrobleski (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	38.7%	19.7%	+19.0%	99
HR Chance Watchlist	Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves	Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	1	Payton Tolle (L)	theScore Bet	+500	-	38.5%	15.6%	+22.9%	99
Best HR Chance	Ian Happ	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	4	Davis Martin (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	38.4%	18.8%	+19.6%	99
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	1	José Soriano (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	36.2%	23.2%	+13.0%	99
Best HR Chance	Sam Antonacci	Chicago White Sox	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	1	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+700	-	34.8%	11.7%	+23.1%	99
HR Chance Watchlist	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	3	Payton Tolle (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	33.9%	18.8%	+15.2%	99
Best HR Chance	Jarred Kelenic	Chicago White Sox	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	7	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	33.8%	16.4%	+17.5%	99
Best HR Chance	Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	2	Connor Prielipp (L)	theScore Bet	+800	-	32.1%	10.4%	+21.7%	99

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	100	94.8%	-1826	Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Ian Happ	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 \| Wind 11 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	100	92.3%	-1204	Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	100	91.6%	-1091	Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt	Citi Field HR factor 0.93 \| Wind 10 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	91.4%	-1058	Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Wilyer Abreu, Michael Harris II	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	100	89.6%	-861	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Jake Burger, Josh Jung	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.4%	-
Watchlist	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	83.9%	-520	Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Casey Schmitt, Jesus Rodriguez	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners	7:16 PM	100	81.0%	-425	Xander Bogaerts, Ramon Laureano, Gavin Sheets, Nick Castellanos	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Pass	Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	81	77.9%	-352	Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Andrew Vaughn, Ryan Jeffers	Target Field HR factor 0.95	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 22.1%, P(U1.5) 55.5%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Colson Montgomery — Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox (+260) HR chance 42.0% | edge +16.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.279, OPS 0.854, ISO 0.282, TB/G 1.88
Statcast: barrel 15.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/111.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.464
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 12/43 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0566, xFIP 4.50, K% 21.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.325, xERA 4.21, whiff 25.7%
Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.077, OPS 0.749 (26 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.064, OPS 0.850, ISO 0.275 (125 PA)

Best HR Chance Munetaka Murakami — Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox (+250) HR chance 42.0% | edge +15.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.341, OPS 0.894, ISO 0.299, TB/G 1.84
Statcast: barrel 22.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 95.2/114.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.550
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 15/44 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0566, xFIP 4.50, K% 21.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.325, xERA 4.21, whiff 25.7%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.083, OPS 0.900, ISO 0.303 (133 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0667

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — New York Yankees @ New York Mets (+400) HR chance 42.0% | edge +23.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.350, OPS 1.104, ISO 0.372, TB/G 2.35
Statcast: barrel 20.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.1/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.605
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 14/40 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.075, OPS 1.109, ISO 0.368 (120 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.548, xwOBA 0.381 (21 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93
Warm air 79F

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Miguel Vargas — Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox (+425) HR chance 42.0% | edge +24.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.233, OPS 0.870, ISO 0.247, TB/G 1.77
Statcast: barrel 15.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.540
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 9/43 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0566, xFIP 4.50, K% 21.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.325, xERA 4.21, whiff 25.7%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.031, OPS 0.703, ISO 0.152 (129 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_rhb: HR/BF 0.0521

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Aaron Judge — New York Yankees @ New York Mets (+240) HR chance 41.9% | edge +14.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.356, OPS 1.010, ISO 0.342, TB/G 2.18
Statcast: barrel 23.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.8/116.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.633
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 15/45 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.333, K% 33.3% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.079, OPS 0.990, ISO 0.336 (140 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.463, xwOBA 0.366 (31 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

Best HR Chance Max Muncy — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels (+475) HR chance 41.7% | edge +25.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.286, OPS 0.935, ISO 0.288, TB/G 1.90
Statcast: barrel 19.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.8/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.621
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 8/42 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.948, ISO 0.285 (129 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0374
Park HR factor 0.98
Night game start 9:39 PM ET

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Shea Langeliers — San Francisco Giants @ Athletics (+325) HR chance 41.0% | edge +19.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.300, OPS 1.007, ISO 0.277, TB/G 2.55
Statcast: barrel 16.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.8/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.621
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 10/40 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0384, xFIP 2.57, K% 24.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.307, xERA 3.71, whiff 25.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 1.005, ISO 0.281 (135 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.422, xwOBA 0.317 (30 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Nick Kurtz — San Francisco Giants @ Athletics (+275) HR chance 40.8% | edge +16.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.186, OPS 0.923, ISO 0.218, TB/G 1.79
Statcast: barrel 17.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 95.0/115.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.515
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 8/43 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0384, xFIP 2.57, K% 24.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.307, xERA 3.71, whiff 25.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 1.028, ISO 0.280 (131 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.448, xwOBA 0.366 (33 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Caleb Durbin	Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+1100	0.3%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Jeff McNeil	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	9:41 PM	+1100	0.4%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Matt Chapman	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	9:41 PM	+525	0.6%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Josh Bell	Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	+475	1.2%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Bo Bichette	New York Yankees @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	+800	1.2%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	9:41 PM	+1100	1.3%	Low season HR rate
Nolan Schanuel	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	+1100	1.4%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Cole Young	San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners	7:16 PM	+900	1.5%	Thin batter pitch-type sample (7 PA) \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Brett Baty	New York Yankees @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	+900	1.5%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Thin batter split sample vs_lhp (22 PA)
Michael Busch	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	+475	1.6%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	V2 Result
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	Connor Prielipp	Logan Henderson	0.95	22.1% MODEL SIGNAL	55.5% MODEL SIGNAL	8.9%	+13.3%	No HR C PASS U1.5 C PASS
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners	7:16 PM	Logan Gilbert	Walker Buehler	0.92	19.0%	50.6%	10.4%	+8.6%
San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Luis Severino	Trevor McDonald	1.00	16.1%	45.5%	6.3%	+9.8%
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	Kai-Wei Teng	Jacob deGrom	1.00	10.4%	34.0%	6.2%	+4.2%
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Bryce Elder	Payton Tolle	1.03	8.6%	29.8%	9.3%	-0.7%
New York Yankees @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	Huascar Brazobán	Carlos Rodón	0.93	8.4%	29.2%	6.9%	+1.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	José Soriano	Justin Wrobleski	0.98	7.7%	27.4%	7.5%	+0.1%
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	Davis Martin	Jameson Taillon	1.00	5.2%	20.6%	5.1%	+0.1%

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (22.1%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (55.5%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.508 (raw=1.837, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=+0.07)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.93x (base lambda 1.616)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Connor Prielipp pitch-quality 1.01x (RV/100 -0.2, xwOBA 0.332, HH% 41.5, mix SL/FF, n=350)
Logan Henderson pitch-quality 0.96x (RV/100 +1.4, xwOBA 0.239, HH% 30.7, mix FF/CH, n=185)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Milwaukee Brewers lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.382, hitters 9, mix SL/FF)
Minnesota Twins lineup vs pitch mix 0.98x (xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.340, hitters 9, mix FF/CH)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.96x
Minnesota Twins bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.8 IP)
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.9 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.5%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Connor Prielipp): 0.0367 HR/BF Away SP (Logan Henderson): 0.0179 HR/BF
Brice Turang: 0.0384 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1653 lambda
Jackson Chourio: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Austin Martin: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 8.9% (17 batter lines used) edge = +13.3%

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Risk Flags
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	L	19.2%	5.9	6.0	5.9	99	normal	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Luis Severino	Athletics vs San Francisco Giants	R	21.0%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox	R	23.8%	6.1	6.0	6.0	102	deep	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals	R	18.9%	5.3	5.4	5.5	89	normal	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves	L	27.0%	5.5	5.5	5.6	92	normal	full	94.50	5.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Jameson Taillon	Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.3%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs	R	27.1%	6.3	6.2	6.2	106	deep	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.8%
Chris Paddack	Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.4%, low-K contact opponent 19.8%, pitcher stats fallback
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	L	18.9%	4.4	5.0	5.0	74	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	14.9%	5.1	5.2	5.3	86	short	full	8.50	91.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	24.8%	5.1	5.2	5.3	86	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.2%
Kai-Wei Teng	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	21.1%	2.3	13.0	6.2	39	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 2.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	20.2%	5.0	5.0	5.2	84	short	full	13.00	87.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	26.1%	5.3	6.0	6.0	89	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels	L	15.5%	7.0	7.4	6.8	117	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	17.7%	5.6	6.4	6.2	94	normal	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	R	27.1%	4.3	4.3	5.1	72	short	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	24.6%	4.8	4.8	5.2	80	short	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.4%
Huascar Brazobán	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	R	19.3%	1.2	10.5	5.6	20	short	full	75.00	25.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 12.0%
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	L	22.3%	-	4.1	5.6	94	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+savant+hand	season leash 4.1 IP/GS
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	27.3%	6.9	6.1	6.2	116	deep	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	20.1%	4.4	4.9	4.9	74	short	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners	R	20.4%	4.5	4.5	4.7	76	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Athletics	R	23.2%	6.0	6.0	5.8	101	deep	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres	R	24.2%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals	R	19.3%	5.2	4.9	5.1	87	normal	full	18.00	82.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins	R	18.1%	6.2	5.9	5.9	104	deep	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	R	29.2%	5.7	5.5	5.6	96	normal	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+hand	-
Mason Fluharty	Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers	L	29.1%	1.0	15.0	5.5	17	short	full	99.50	0.50	season+recent+savant+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles	R	24.5%	5.3	4.5	4.7	89	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.5%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Davis Martin	Davis Martin Over	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	19.5	2.0	C	PASS	research	deep	6.2	106	season+recent+savant+hand	⚠ Pitcher outs hook-risk gate: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS \| deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start \| hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.8% \| deep-start support: assessment deep leash \| hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.8% -- thin Over capped at C
Bryce Elder	Bryce Elder Over	Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	19.4	1.9	C	PASS	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+hand	Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Home back-to-back \| Away back-to-back
Jameson Taillon	Jameson Taillon Under	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	15.8	-1.7	C	PASS	research	normal	5.7	96	season+recent+savant+hand	Books Disagree: DK agrees \| books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
Luis Severino	Luis Severino Under	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	17.5	16.2	-1.3	C	PASS	research	normal	5.5	96	season+recent+savant+hand	Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.06x) \| Home back-to-back \| Away back-to-back
Justin Wrobleski	Justin Wrobleski Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	18.5	19.5	1.0	D	PASS	research	deep	6.8	117	season+recent+savant+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Under	San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.4	-0.1	D	PASS	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min
Jacob deGrom	Jacob deGrom Under	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	17.5	17.5	-0.0	D	PASS	research	normal	5.6	96	season+recent+savant+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

121 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.98	1.15	1.05	0.77	2.56 / Over	0.30	season_games=40,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.96	1.18	1.08	0.70	2.77 / Over	0.30	season_games=39,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Drake Baldwin	Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.89	1.26	0.95	0.69	2.31 / Over	0.35	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Matt Olson	Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.76	1.11	0.79	0.87	2.04 / Over	0.35	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Aaron Judge	New York Yankees @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.70	1.00	1.02	0.67	2.31 / Over	0.30	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
William Contreras	Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.60	1.15	0.64	0.81	2.21 / Over	0.30	season_games=40,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Yordan Alvarez	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.53	1.22	0.62	0.70	2.57 / Over	0.30	season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Cody Bellinger	New York Yankees @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.50	1.00	0.68	0.81	2.10 / Over	0.30	season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Nico Hoerner	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.49	1.18	0.61	0.71	2.29 / Over	0.30	season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Mike Trout	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.42	0.94	0.93	0.55	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jesus Rodriguez	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.40	1.25	0.62	0.54	2.03 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Munetaka Murakami	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.37	0.87	0.82	0.68	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=44,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ian Happ	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.36	0.91	0.89	0.56	2.42 / Over	0.30	season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Shea Langeliers	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	Over 2.5	3.36	1.51	1.08	0.77	2.92 / Over	0.30	season_games=40,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Miguel Vargas	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.34	0.90	0.79	0.65	2.51 / Over	0.30	season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ozzie Albies	Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.34	1.12	0.73	0.49	1.84 / Over	0.35	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Casey Schmitt	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.33	1.07	0.57	0.69	2.21 / Over	0.30	season_games=37,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Colson Montgomery	Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.26	0.90	0.53	0.83	2.31 / Over	0.30	season_games=43,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Josh Jung	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.23	1.26	0.46	0.51	2.40 / Over	0.30	season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Christian Walker	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.22	0.99	0.55	0.68	2.10 / Over	0.30	season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Zach Neto	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.22	0.94	0.72	0.56	2.00 / Over	0.30	season_games=45,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jorge Soler	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.18	0.81	0.53	0.84	2.04 / Over	0.30	season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Randy Arozarena	San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners	Over 1.5	2.17	1.17	0.64	0.36	2.35 / Over	0.30	season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brooks Lee	Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.14	0.95	0.50	0.68	1.80 / Over	0.30	season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Tyler Soderstrom	San Francisco Giants @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.12	0.80	0.67	0.66	1.95 / Over	0.30	season_games=41,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.

Section	What it shows
V2 Ranked Plays	Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags
Full Candidate Sweep	Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games
Detail Sections	Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays

V2 Six-Check System

Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.

#	Check	What it evaluates	PASS condition
1	Baby Line	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs
2	Model Edge	Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props)	Edge ≥ threshold for the market type
3	Books Agree	DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books	DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side
4	Matchup	Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits	Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable
5	Role / Injury	Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns	No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot
6	Game Script	Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread	Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs

Grades & Recommendations

Grade	Score	Recommendation	When to bet
A	10–12, 0 FAILs	BEST PLAY	Core play — all six checks aligned
B	7–9, ≤1 FAIL	GOOD ADD	Strong play with minor caveats
C	4–6	PASS	Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read
D	2–3 or model edge FAIL	PASS	Do not bet — weak signal
F	0–1	HARD FADE	Consider betting the other side

Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

What IS Integrated

Factor	Status
Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA)	Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available.
Savant whiff% / put-away%	Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight).
Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props	Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%).
Lineup order / day-of lineup	Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+.

What IS Integrated (continued)

Factor	Status
Bullpen fatigue	Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check.
Rest days	Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models.
Umpire K-rate	Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap.
Handedness / platoon splits	Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check.
Projection blend (regression to mean)	Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April.

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

Factor	Status
Batter vs. pitch-type matchup	Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores.
Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H	Planned for a future phase.
Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS)	Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

MARKET TRUST TIERS

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

GRADE A PLAYS — SWEEP

Grade A Best Plays — 1 play(s)

V2 FRAMEWORK — RANKED PLAYS

BEST PLAYS (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

V2 Framework — How the Report is Structured

V2 Six-Check System

Grades & Recommendations

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

What IS Integrated

What IS Integrated (continued)

What the Model Does NOT Include (yet)

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes