| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 242W–219L–1P | 52% | -23.71 u | Last 14 days • 462 settled |
| Grade A | 29W–27L–0P | 52% | -5.43 u | |
| Grade B | 213W–192L–1P | 53% | -18.28 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 371W–336L–3P | 52% | -34.52 u | All-time • 710 settled |
| Grade A | 69W–50L–0P | 58% | +2.37 u | |
| Grade B | 302W–286L–3P | 51% | -36.89 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft | 5.5 | -133 | - | WIN | +0.752 | Braxton Ashcraft: 6.0 (line 5.5) |
| 2026-05-03 | K Prop | Chase Burns | 6.5 | -118 | - | WIN | +0.847 | Chase Burns: 7.0 (line 6.5) |
| 2026-05-03 | Batter H+R+RBI | Dansby Swanson | 1.5 | -123 | - | LOSS | -1.000 | Dansby Swanson: 0.0 (line 1.5) |
| 2026-05-03 | K Prop | Logan Henderson | 4.5 | -115 | - | WIN | +0.870 | Logan Henderson: 8.0 (line 4.5) |
| ✓ | Savant: 559 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | Savant 1st-inn: 219 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits |
| ✓ | Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams | 30 with streak ≥5 |
| ✓ | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 77 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | Handedness: 24 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | Lineups confirmed: 22 team(s), 198 player(s) |
| ✓ | Umpires confirmed: 11 game(s) |
| ✓ | Rest data: 24 team(s) | Back-to-back: St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners, New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees, Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros |
| ✓ | Bullpen data: 24 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox |
| ✓ | Weather: 5 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | F5: 8 game(s) fetched | 8 with ML odds | 0 with total odds | 3 play(s) above 8% edge |
| ✓ | No-HR model: 8 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 7 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | HR layers: batter Statcast 463 | batter bats 177 | batter hand splits 181 | pitcher HR splits 74 | batter pitch-type 426 | bullpen HR 0 |
| ✓ | HR model: 139 batter(s) scored | 8 game environment(s) scored | 43 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | 7:06 PM | +184 | -226 | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 7:11 PM | +171 | -209 | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (-105) | O/U 11.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 7:41 PM | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+153) | +1.5 (-186) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7:46 PM | -126 | +105 | -1.5 (+133) | +1.5 (-161) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | 8:11 PM | -199 | +163 | -1.5 (-126) | +1.5 (+104) | O/U 9.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | 9:39 PM | +133 | -161 | +1.5 (-163) | -1.5 (+135) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners | 9:41 PM | +119 | -143 | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+144) | O/U 8.0 | HOME | Bet on DK |
| San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | 9:46 PM | -136 | +113 | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-143) | O/U 8.0 | AWAY | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Batter H+R+RBI | Jordan Walker Over | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 1.5 | -132 | BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price | 91.0% | ✓✓✓–✓– | BEST PLAY |
| A | Batter H+R+RBI | Alec Burleson Over | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 1.5 | -139 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price | 68.4% | ✓✓✓–✓– | BEST PLAY |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script
| Grade | Game | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Total | Under 11.5 | -112 | 50.4% | 78.7% | +28.3% | $+48.98 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| B | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | Run Line | Houston Astros +1.5 | +104 | 46.8% | 69.1% | +22.3% | $+40.87 | 9 | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Game | Type | Side | DK Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV/$100 | Books | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros (F5) | F5 ML | Houston Astros | +160 | 36.2% | 48.4% | +12.1% | $+25.73 | — | Bet on DK |
| B | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | F5 ML | Cincinnati Reds | +150 | 37.7% | 48.3% | +10.6% | $+20.87 | — | Bet on DK |
| B | Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels (F5) | F5 ML | Chicago White Sox | +145 | 38.5% | 47.2% | +8.7% | $+15.55 | — | Bet on DK |
No NRFI/YRFI plays meet the score threshold today.
| Game | SPs | NRFI / Min | YRFI / Min | Edge | Why not |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | José Soriano / Davis Martin | 4.8 / 7.7 | 5.2 / 7.7 | -4.3% | Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -4.3% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (23 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Edward Cabrera / Chase Petty ⚠ Away SP | 4.8 / 7.7 | 5.2 / 7.7 | +10.1% | Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found Away SP (Chase Petty) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (20 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) |
| San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Trevor McDonald / Randy Vásquez ⚠ Home SP | 4.8 / 7.7 | 5.2 / 7.7 | +0.2% | Score 4.8 < 7.7 threshold | Both SP required — one or more not found | Edge 0.2% < 8% required Home SP (Trevor McDonald) stats unavailable — league avg used | Home SP 1st-inn data thin (0 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate) |
| Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners | Logan Gilbert / JR Ritchie | 4.5 / 7.7 | 5.5 / 7.7 | -4.3% | Score 4.5 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -4.3% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data thin (9 PA < 30 gate) |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | Michael Wacha / Tanner Bibee | 4.4 / 7.7 | 5.6 / 7.7 | -2.0% | Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -2.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) |
| Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | Cam Schlittler / Shane Baz | 4.3 / 7.7 | 5.7 / 7.7 | -5.0% | Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -5.0% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (25 PA < 30 gate) |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | Steven Okert / Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 3.6 / 7.7 | 6.4 / 7.7 | -11.5% | Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (2 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (24 PA < 30 gate) |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Kyle Leahy / Chad Patrick | 3.3 / 7.7 | 6.7 / 7.7 | -11.5% | Score 3.3 < 7.7 threshold | Edge -11.5% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data thin (22 PA < 30 gate) | Away SP 1st-inn data thin (17 PA < 30 gate) |
| Tier | Player | Team | Game | Spot | Pitcher | Book | Odds | First HR | Implied | Model | Edge | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Candidate | Victor Scott II | Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | - | Kyle Leahy (R) | theScore Bet | +1200 | - | 7.3% | 42.0% | +34.7% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Pedro Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | - | Kyle Leahy (R) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 42.0% | +32.6% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Yainer Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | - | Steven Okert (L) | theScore Bet | +900 | - | 9.4% | 42.0% | +32.6% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | Kyle Leahy (R) | theScore Bet | +800 | - | 10.4% | 42.0% | +31.6% | 100 |
| Strong HR Candidate | Angel Martinez | Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | - | Michael Wacha (R) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 13.3% | 42.0% | +28.7% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Josh Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | - | José Soriano (R) | theScore Bet | +600 | - | 13.3% | 42.0% | +28.7% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Cody Bellinger | New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | 3 | Shane Baz (R) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 15.0% | 42.0% | +27.0% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | 7 | Steven Okert (L) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 15.0% | 42.0% | +27.0% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | 4 | José Soriano (R) | theScore Bet | +525 | - | 15.0% | 42.0% | +27.0% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | JJ Wetherholt | St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | Chad Patrick (R) | theScore Bet | +500 | - | 15.6% | 42.0% | +26.4% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Nathaniel Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | - | Edward Cabrera (R) | theScore Bet | +475 | - | 16.4% | 42.0% | +25.6% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | Chad Patrick (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 17.1% | 42.0% | +24.9% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | Kyle Leahy (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 17.1% | 42.0% | +24.9% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | 4 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) | theScore Bet | +450 | - | 17.1% | 42.0% | +24.9% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Carter Jensen | Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 5 | Tanner Bibee (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 17.9% | 42.0% | +24.1% | 100 |
| Parlay Sprinkle Only | Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | 1 | Cam Schlittler (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 18.8% | 42.0% | +23.2% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 3 | Edward Cabrera (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 18.8% | 42.0% | +23.2% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | 2 | José Soriano (R) | theScore Bet | +400 | - | 18.8% | 42.0% | +23.2% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Trent Grisham | New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | 1 | Shane Baz (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 17.9% | 40.9% | +23.0% | 100 |
| Elite HR Longshot Edge | Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners | 1 | Logan Gilbert (R) | theScore Bet | +425 | - | 17.9% | 40.6% | +22.7% | 100 |
| Tier | Game | Score | P(1+ HR) | Fair Odds | Top Threats | Environment | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong HR Environment | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 100 | 99.0% | -9900 | Victor Scott II, Pedro Pages, Brice Turang, JJ Wetherholt | Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | 100 | 99.0% | -9900 | Yainer Diaz, Andy Pages, Christian Walker, Max Muncy | Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.1% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 100 | 98.2% | -5613 | Nathaniel Lowe, Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Ian Happ | Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 | Wind 12 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.7% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | 100 | 97.6% | -4119 | Cody Bellinger, Gunnar Henderson, Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham | Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 | Wind 10 mph OUT (SSE) -- run total UP | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.9% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | 100 | 97.5% | -3948 | Josh Lowe, Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Mike Trout | Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 | Wind 12 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.9% | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | 100 | 94.7% | -1772 | Angel Martinez, Carter Jensen, Jose Ramirez, Vinnie Pasquantino | Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 | - |
| Strong HR Environment | Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners | 100 | 93.3% | -1391 | Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Dominic Canzone | T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 | No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.2% | - |
| Pass | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | 84 | 73.5% | -278 | Ramon Laureano, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Luis Campusano | Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 | - |
| Player | Game | Odds | Edge | Why avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Busch | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | +350 | -17.9% | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | +375 | -15.3% | Low lineup spot (8) | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Alex Bregman | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | +400 | -13.3% | Pitcher season stats unavailable |
| Rafael Devers | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | +500 | -12.9% | Team lineup not posted | Low season HR rate | Pitcher season stats unavailable | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Jo Adell | Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | +475 | -12.3% | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Weak batter split vs_rhp |
| Garrett Mitchell | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | +550 | -11.6% | Low season HR rate | Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA) |
| Austin Riley | Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners | +450 | -11.1% | No model edge |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | +450 | -10.2% | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Batter Statcast power unavailable | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor |
| Austin Wells | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | +500 | -9.9% | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Pitcher has suppressed HRs | Elite strikeout pitcher | Elite contact-quality suppressor |
| Moisés Ballesteros | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | +375 | -9.8% | Batter team unresolved | Batter power stats unavailable | Batter Statcast power unavailable |
| Game | Home SP | Away SP | Park HR | P(No HR) | P(U 1.5) | DK Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | Michael Wacha | Tanner Bibee | 0.93 | 19.5% | 51.4% | 8.0% | +11.5% |
| San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Trevor McDonald | Randy Vásquez | 0.82 | 16.2% | 45.6% | — | — |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Kyle Leahy | Chad Patrick | 0.93 | 13.0% | 39.6% | 9.4% | +3.7% |
| Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners | Logan Gilbert | JR Ritchie | 0.92 | 9.2% | 31.1% | 6.7% | +2.5% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros | Steven Okert | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 1.00 | 8.1% | 28.5% | 5.4% | +2.7% |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Edward Cabrera | Chase Petty | 1.05 | 7.7% | 27.3% | 2.9% | +4.8% |
| Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | Cam Schlittler | Shane Baz | 1.18 | 5.9% | 22.7% | 5.5% | +0.5% |
| Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | José Soriano | Davis Martin | 0.98 | 5.9% | 22.6% | 8.8% | -3.0% |
Every bet candidate — regardless of market — passes through the same six-check evaluation engine before appearing in the report. The engine produces a letter grade (A–F) and a recommendation tier. The top of the report shows your actionable plays; the full sweep table below it shows every candidate evaluated that day so you can audit the model's reasoning.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| V2 Ranked Plays | Grade A (Best Play) and Grade B (Good Add) candidates with full detail — check bar, key factors, risk flags, and contradiction flags |
| Full Candidate Sweep | Every evaluated bet in one compact table grouped by grade tier. Use this to understand why a play was filtered out. |
| Today's Slate | DraftKings reference lines for all games |
| Detail Sections | Game bets (with key factors, injury/weather notes) and NRFI — full signal detail below the V2 ranked plays |
Each check returns PASS ✓, WARN !, FAIL ✗, or N/A –. Checks that need unavailable data degrade to N/A without penalising the grade. Two points for PASS, one for WARN or N/A, zero for FAIL.
| # | Check | What it evaluates | PASS condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | No baby-line flags, adequate PA opportunity, RL cushion ≥0.2 runs |
| 2 | Model Edge | Projection vs DK line (edge for game bets, DIFF% for props) | Edge ≥ threshold for the market type |
| 3 | Books Agree | DK implied direction + consensus lean % across all other books | DK agrees with model AND ≥55% of consensus books lean same side |
| 4 | Matchup | Park factor, weather, pitcher handedness vs lineup splits | Park/weather support the bet direction; platoon matchup neutral or favorable |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Confirmed lineup spot, injury flags, workload concerns | No injury flags; lineup confirmed in a favorable spot |
| 6 | Game Script | Combined park × weather run environment; run-line margin vs spread | Environment supports bet direction; RL margin cushion ≥0.5 runs |
| Grade | Score | Recommendation | When to bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10–12, 0 FAILs | BEST PLAY | Core play — all six checks aligned |
| B | 7–9, ≤1 FAIL | GOOD ADD | Strong play with minor caveats |
| C | 4–6 | PASS | Thin — skip unless you have a strong personal read |
| D | 2–3 or model edge FAIL | PASS | Do not bet — weak signal |
| F | 0–1 | HARD FADE | Consider betting the other side |
Hard override: a Model Edge FAIL always caps at Grade D regardless of other checks. Books Strongly Disagree caps at Grade C.
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | V2 Framework grade (A–D) — driven by the six-check scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. See Grade Scale below. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| DK Odds | DraftKings price for that side |
| Implied | DK implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). ≥3 = full check, 2 = capped at B/C, <2 = Check 3 fails. |
The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Savant pitcher quality (xwOBA, xERA) | Integrated. SP quality in NRFI blends xFIP (60%) + xwOBA allowed (40%) when Savant data available. |
| Savant whiff% / put-away% | Integrated for K props. Primary projection driver when available (65% weight). |
| Opp pitcher contact quality for batter props | Integrated. Opposing pitcher xwOBA allowed adjusts batter projections (±up to 15%). |
| Lineup order / day-of lineup | Integrated for batter props (confirmed lineup spot + projected PA). Game-level model uses full-team season wRC+. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Bullpen fatigue | Integrated (Session 16). Relief appearances over past 3 days tracked per team; tired pen (>2.7 RP/game avg) raises expected total via BULLPEN_WEIGHT (15%). Surfaced in Game Script check. |
| Rest days | Integrated (Session 16). Back-to-back teams receive a −1.5% win-probability penalty; well-rested teams receive a +1.0% bonus. Applied to full-game and F5 models. |
| Umpire K-rate | Integrated (Session 15). Static table of ~70 umpires with historical K/9 values. Wide-zone umps adjust K prop projections and NRFI scores up; tight-zone umps adjust down. Dampened ±12% cap. |
| Handedness / platoon splits | Integrated (Sessions 3 & 15). Opposing lineup wRC+ vs. SP hand sourced from MLB splits API. Platoon mismatch adjusts win probability ±2% per side (capped ±4% total). Surfaced in Matchup check. |
| Projection blend (regression to mean) | Integrated (Session 17). Stats regressed toward league average early in season: blend_w = IP ÷ 80 for pitchers, games ÷ 81 for teams. Prevents 5-IP ERA outliers from driving model in April. |
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Batter vs. pitch-type matchup | Integrated. Savant team-vs-pitch-type xwOBA adjusts K prop projections and NRFI/YRFI scores when SP's primary pitch type is known. Opponent teams that struggle vs the SP's top pitch raise K over projections and NRFI scores. |
| Individual batter vs. pitcher H2H | Planned for a future phase. |
| Pre-season projection prior (Steamer/ZiPS) | Not integrated — projection endpoints not available. Regression-to-mean (blending toward league avg by IP) used as a practical substitute. |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away SP / Home SP | Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced) |
| NRFI Score | Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%) |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.