MLB Betting — Performance Report 2026-08-17

Generated 2026-08-17 | Date range: all → 2026-08-17 | 5898 settled bets (104 sized)

📊 Interpretive Summary

5898 settled bets | 104 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns

All tracked (5898 bets): -259.05 units | ROI -4.4%

Sized only (104 bets): +6.30 units | ROI +8.6%

▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets

Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):

Grade A: -2.4% (467 bets)

Grade B: -4.5% (5420 bets)

Grade C: -58.5% (11 bets)

✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed

Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):

Moneyline: +81.6% ROI | 6 bets | +2.85 units

F5 ML: +10.0% ROI | 30 bets | +2.55 units

Run Line: +4.4% ROI | 170 bets | +6.73 units

Pitcher Hits Allowed: +0.8% ROI | 503 bets | +4.18 units

Batter Total Bases: -1.4% ROI | 71 bets | -1.02 units

Batter Walks: -2.5% ROI | 2152 bets | -54.11 units

Pitcher Walks: -3.1% ROI | 427 bets | -13.36 units

Pitcher Earned Runs: -3.9% ROI | 601 bets | -23.70 units

K Prop: -5.7% ROI | 630 bets | -35.99 units

Pitcher Outs: -8.8% ROI | 135 bets | -11.88 units

Batter Hits: -9.3% ROI | 78 bets | -7.27 units

Batter H+R+RBI: -9.9% ROI | 955 bets | -94.43 units

F5 Total: -15.6% ROI | 41 bets | -6.38 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

Total: -17.7% ROI | 67 bets | -10.52 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

YRFI: -40.4% ROI | 11 bets | -4.44 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

No HR U1.5: -47.9% ROI | 11 bets | -5.27 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

NRFI: -66.7% ROI | 9 bets | -6.00 units

⚠ Red flags:

F5 Total: 41 bets, ROI -15.6% — strongly negative

NRFI: 9 bets, ROI -66.7% — strongly negative

No HR U1.5: 11 bets, ROI -47.9% — strongly negative

Total: 67 bets, ROI -17.7% — strongly negative

YRFI: 11 bets, ROI -40.4% — strongly negative

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
⭐ Top Pick	73	42	31	0	57.5%	-130	56.5%	+0.03	0.0%
Grade A (all)	467	261	206	0	55.9%	-124	55.4%	-10.97	-2.4%

Group	Bets	W	L	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
⭐ Batter H+R+RBI	5	1	4	20.0%	-134	57.2%	-3.23	-64.6%
⭐ Batter Total Bases *	1	1	0	100.0%	-116	53.7%	+0.86	86.2%
⭐ K Prop	66	39	27	59.1%	-129	56.4%	+1.80	2.7%
⭐ Pitcher Hits Allowed *	1	1	0	100.0%	-166	62.4%	+0.60	60.2%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
All tracked	5898	3615	2275	8	61.4%	-200	66.7%	-259.05	-4.4%
Sized only	104	51	50	3	50.5%	-27	21.3%	+6.30	8.6%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Run Line	170	99	71	0	58.2%	-107	51.7%	+6.73	4.4%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	503	288	215	0	57.3%	-112	52.8%	+4.18	0.8%
Moneyline	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
F5 ML	30	11	14	5	44.0%	+154	39.3%	+2.55	10.0%
No HR *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	-110	52.4%	-1.00	-100.0%
Batter Total Bases	71	38	33	0	53.5%	-86	46.3%	-1.02	-1.4%
YRFI	11	4	7	0	36.4%	+131	43.2%	-4.44	-40.4%
No HR U1.5	11	3	8	0	27.3%	-110	52.4%	-5.27	-47.9%
NRFI	9	1	8	0	11.1%	+123	44.8%	-6.00	-66.7%
F5 Total	41	20	21	0	48.8%	-128	56.0%	-6.38	-15.6%
Batter Hits	78	50	28	0	64.1%	-243	70.8%	-7.27	-9.3%
Total	67	27	37	3	42.2%	-98	49.6%	-10.52	-17.7%
Pitcher Outs	135	67	68	0	49.6%	-62	38.2%	-11.88	-8.8%
Pitcher Walks	427	256	171	0	60.0%	-166	62.4%	-13.36	-3.1%
Pitcher Earned Runs	601	341	260	0	56.7%	-142	58.7%	-23.70	-3.9%
K Prop	630	341	289	0	54.1%	-120	54.6%	-35.99	-5.7%
Batter Walks	2152	1578	574	0	73.3%	-333	76.9%	-54.11	-2.5%
Batter H+R+RBI	955	488	467	0	51.1%	-126	55.7%	-94.43	-9.9%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Run Line	44	27	17	0	61.4%	-49	33.1%	+8.39	30.0%
F5 ML	12	6	5	1	54.5%	+161	38.4%	+4.34	57.9%
Moneyline	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
Total	42	15	25	2	37.5%	-90	47.3%	-9.29	-26.9%

Bet Type	Losses	Avg Miss%	Median Miss%	<=15%	<=25%	<=33%
Batter H+R+RBI	467	73.2%	100.0%	1	4	4
Batter Hits	28	59.5%	33.3%	0	0	0
Batter Total Bases	33	91.9%	100.0%	0	0	0
Batter Walks	574	131.7%	100.0%	0	0	0
F5 Total	21	45.7%	42.9%	5	5	9
K Prop	289	35.1%	33.3%	111	116	138
No HR	1	500.0%	500.0%	0	0	0
No HR U1.5	8	108.3%	100.0%	0	0	0
Pitcher Earned Runs	260	69.3%	60.0%	4	45	45
Pitcher Hits Allowed	215	32.6%	27.3%	79	89	134
Pitcher Outs	68	10.8%	2.9%	48	61	64
Pitcher Walks	171	57.6%	33.3%	0	8	8
Run Line	71	212.7%	166.7%	0	0	0
Total	37	35.1%	33.3%	9	14	17

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Batter H+R+RBI \| A	123	68	55	0	55.3%	-133	57.0%	-3.43	-2.8%
Batter H+R+RBI \| B	832	420	412	0	50.5%	-125	55.5%	-91.00	-10.9%
Batter Hits \| B	78	50	28	0	64.1%	-243	70.8%	-7.27	-9.3%
Batter Total Bases \| B	71	38	33	0	53.5%	-86	46.3%	-1.02	-1.4%
Batter Walks \| A	10	6	4	0	60.0%	-96	48.9%	+0.65	6.5%
Batter Walks \| B	2142	1572	570	0	73.4%	-334	76.9%	-54.76	-2.6%
F5 ML \| B	30	11	14	5	44.0%	+154	39.3%	+2.55	10.0%
F5 Total \| A *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	-146	59.3%	-1.00	-100.0%
F5 Total \| B	40	20	20	0	50.0%	-127	56.0%	-5.38	-13.4%
K Prop \| A	273	152	121	0	55.7%	-129	56.4%	-9.52	-3.5%
K Prop \| B	357	189	168	0	52.9%	-114	53.2%	-26.46	-7.4%
Moneyline \| B	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
NRFI \| B	5	1	4	0	20.0%	+127	44.1%	-2.00	-40.0%
NRFI \| C *	4	0	4	0	0.0%	+122	45.1%	-4.00	-100.0%
No HR \| B *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	-110	52.4%	-1.00	-100.0%
No HR U1.5 \| B	11	3	8	0	27.3%	-110	52.4%	-5.27	-47.9%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| A *	2	1	1	0	50.0%	-127	55.9%	-0.21	-10.6%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| B	599	340	259	0	56.8%	-142	58.8%	-23.48	-3.9%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| A	5	2	3	0	40.0%	-143	58.9%	-1.65	-32.9%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| B	498	286	212	0	57.4%	-111	52.7%	+5.83	1.2%
Pitcher Outs \| A *	3	1	2	0	33.3%	-152	60.3%	-1.32	-44.1%
Pitcher Outs \| B	132	66	66	0	50.0%	-60	37.4%	-10.56	-8.0%
Pitcher Walks \| A *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	-165	62.3%	+0.37	12.4%
Pitcher Walks \| B	424	254	170	0	59.9%	-166	62.4%	-13.73	-3.2%
Run Line \| A	46	28	18	0	60.9%	-73	42.1%	+4.65	12.4%
Run Line \| B	124	71	53	0	57.3%	-120	54.5%	+2.08	1.8%
Total \| A *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-101	50.2%	+0.49	99.0%
Total \| B	66	26	37	3	41.3%	-98	49.6%	-11.01	-18.7%
YRFI \| B *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+140	41.7%	-2.00	-50.0%
YRFI \| C	7	2	5	0	28.6%	+129	43.7%	-2.44	-34.9%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
F5 ML \| B	12	6	5	1	54.5%	+161	38.4%	+4.34	57.9%
Moneyline \| B	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
Run Line \| A	28	20	8	0	71.4%	-42	29.6%	+8.85	45.4%
Run Line \| B	16	7	9	0	43.8%	-63	38.5%	-0.46	-5.4%
Total \| A *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-101	50.2%	+0.49	99.0%
Total \| B	41	14	25	2	35.9%	-90	47.2%	-9.78	-28.8%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
≤ -150	3295	2287	1008	0	69.4%	-280	73.7%	-84.07	-2.6%
-149 to -125	1422	769	653	0	54.1%	-137	57.8%	-90.15	-6.4%
-124 to -105	824	401	420	3	48.8%	-117	53.9%	-73.69	-9.1%
-104 to +104	99	50	49	0	50.5%	+1	99.4%	-0.66	-0.7%
+105 to +124	153	65	88	0	42.5%	+114	46.7%	-14.11	-9.3%
+125 to +149	66	27	38	1	41.5%	+133	42.8%	-1.84	-2.9%
≥ +150	34	13	17	4	43.3%	+182	35.4%	+5.47	18.5%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
A \| ≤ -150	111	66	45	0	59.5%	-158	61.3%	-3.20	-2.9%
A \| -149 to -125	244	134	110	0	54.9%	-136	57.6%	-11.92	-5.0%
A \| -124 to -105	87	47	40	0	54.0%	-118	54.2%	-1.18	-1.4%
A \| -104 to +104 *	4	3	1	0	75.0%	+51	66.1%	+1.54	43.9%
A \| +105 to +124	10	4	6	0	40.0%	+117	46.2%	-1.30	-13.0%
A \| +125 to +149	7	5	2	0	71.4%	+134	42.7%	+4.73	67.6%
A \| ≥ +150 *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+180	35.8%	+0.38	10.7%
B \| ≤ -150	3184	2221	963	0	69.8%	-284	74.0%	-80.86	-2.5%
B \| -149 to -125	1178	635	543	0	53.9%	-137	57.8%	-78.23	-6.7%
B \| -124 to -105	737	354	380	3	48.2%	-117	53.8%	-72.50	-9.9%
B \| -104 to +104	95	47	48	0	49.5%	-2	1.6%	-2.19	-2.3%
B \| +105 to +124	139	61	78	0	43.9%	+114	46.8%	-8.81	-6.4%
B \| +125 to +149	52	20	31	1	39.2%	+134	42.8%	-4.13	-8.4%
B \| ≥ +150	30	11	15	4	42.3%	+183	35.4%	+5.09	19.6%
C \| +105 to +124 *	4	0	4	0	0.0%	+120	45.6%	-4.00	-100.0%
C \| +125 to +149	7	2	5	0	28.6%	+130	43.5%	-2.44	-34.9%

Section F — Bet Type × Odds Band

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Batter H+R+RBI \| ≤ -150	158	88	70	0	55.7%	-158	61.2%	-14.14	-9.0%
Batter H+R+RBI \| -149 to -125	475	244	231	0	51.4%	-136	57.6%	-50.88	-10.7%
Batter H+R+RBI \| -124 to -105	278	137	141	0	49.3%	-118	54.2%	-25.43	-9.1%
Batter H+R+RBI \| -104 to +104	20	9	11	0	45.0%	-31	23.7%	-2.10	-10.5%
Batter H+R+RBI \| +105 to +124	17	7	10	0	41.2%	+115	46.4%	-1.91	-11.2%
Batter H+R+RBI \| +125 to +149	7	3	4	0	42.9%	+131	43.2%	+0.02	0.3%
Batter Hits \| ≤ -150	78	50	28	0	64.1%	-243	70.8%	-7.27	-9.3%
Batter Total Bases \| ≤ -150	18	10	8	0	55.6%	-185	64.9%	-2.55	-14.2%
Batter Total Bases \| -149 to -125	19	12	7	0	63.2%	-133	57.2%	+1.90	10.0%
Batter Total Bases \| -124 to -105	19	8	11	0	42.1%	-118	54.1%	-4.24	-22.3%
Batter Total Bases \| +105 to +124 *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+118	45.9%	-1.76	-44.0%
Batter Total Bases \| +125 to +149	10	6	4	0	60.0%	+135	42.6%	+3.99	39.9%
Batter Total Bases \| ≥ +150 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	+163	38.0%	+1.63	163.0%
Batter Walks \| ≤ -150	2030	1514	516	0	74.6%	-348	77.7%	-51.03	-2.5%
Batter Walks \| -149 to -125	60	30	30	0	50.0%	-135	57.4%	-7.58	-12.6%
Batter Walks \| -124 to -105	35	25	10	0	71.4%	-117	54.0%	+11.33	32.4%
Batter Walks \| -104 to +104	5	2	3	0	40.0%	+20	83.5%	-1.00	-20.0%
Batter Walks \| +105 to +124	10	4	6	0	40.0%	+112	47.3%	-1.57	-15.7%
Batter Walks \| +125 to +149	5	1	4	0	20.0%	+132	43.2%	-2.73	-54.6%
Batter Walks \| ≥ +150	7	2	5	0	28.6%	+208	32.5%	-1.53	-21.9%
F5 ML \| +105 to +124 *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+123	44.8%	+0.32	10.7%
F5 ML \| +125 to +149	11	5	5	1	50.0%	+140	41.6%	+1.67	18.6%
F5 ML \| ≥ +150	15	4	7	4	36.4%	+173	36.7%	+0.55	4.1%
F5 Total \| ≤ -150 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-154	60.6%	+0.65	64.9%
F5 Total \| -149 to -125	27	16	11	0	59.3%	-139	58.2%	+0.49	1.8%
F5 Total \| -124 to -105	12	3	9	0	25.0%	-119	54.3%	-6.51	-54.3%
F5 Total \| +105 to +124 *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	+114	46.7%	-1.00	-100.0%
K Prop \| ≤ -150	188	117	71	0	62.2%	-158	61.2%	+3.39	1.8%
K Prop \| -149 to -125	280	152	128	0	54.3%	-138	58.0%	-17.38	-6.2%
K Prop \| -124 to -105	112	50	62	0	44.6%	-117	54.0%	-19.33	-17.3%
K Prop \| -104 to +104 *	4	4	0	0	100.0%	-0	0.2%	+3.99	99.8%
K Prop \| +105 to +124	36	14	22	0	38.9%	+116	46.3%	-5.70	-15.8%
K Prop \| +125 to +149	10	4	6	0	40.0%	+127	44.0%	-0.96	-9.6%
Moneyline \| ≥ +150	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
NRFI \| +105 to +124 *	4	0	4	0	0.0%	+120	45.6%	-4.00	-100.0%
NRFI \| +125 to +149 *	2	0	2	0	0.0%	+131	43.3%	-2.00	-100.0%
No HR \| -124 to -105 *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	-110	52.4%	-1.00	-100.0%
No HR U1.5 \| -124 to -105	11	3	8	0	27.3%	-110	52.4%	-5.27	-47.9%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| ≤ -150	315	193	122	0	61.3%	-162	61.9%	-2.96	-0.9%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| -149 to -125	179	92	87	0	51.4%	-137	57.9%	-19.93	-11.1%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| -124 to -105	91	48	43	0	52.7%	-116	53.7%	-1.41	-1.5%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| -104 to +104	10	4	6	0	40.0%	-1	0.6%	-2.01	-20.1%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| +105 to +124	6	4	2	0	66.7%	+113	46.9%	+2.61	43.5%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| ≤ -150	160	99	61	0	61.9%	-159	61.4%	+1.33	0.8%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| -149 to -125	173	99	74	0	57.2%	-138	58.0%	-2.06	-1.2%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| -124 to -105	104	59	45	0	56.7%	-116	53.6%	+6.28	6.0%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| -104 to +104	26	11	15	0	42.3%	+23	81.2%	-3.96	-15.2%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| +105 to +124	39	19	20	0	48.7%	+112	47.3%	+1.32	3.4%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| +125 to +149 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	+127	44.1%	+1.27	127.0%
Pitcher Outs \| ≤ -150	23	15	8	0	65.2%	-176	63.8%	+0.39	1.7%
Pitcher Outs \| -149 to -125	31	17	14	0	54.8%	-137	57.8%	-1.59	-5.1%
Pitcher Outs \| -124 to -105	35	15	20	0	42.9%	-115	53.5%	-6.94	-19.8%
Pitcher Outs \| -104 to +104	14	7	7	0	50.0%	+14	87.5%	+0.03	0.2%
Pitcher Outs \| +105 to +124	23	10	13	0	43.5%	+113	46.9%	-1.78	-7.7%
Pitcher Outs \| +125 to +149	9	3	6	0	33.3%	+133	42.9%	-1.99	-22.1%
Pitcher Walks \| ≤ -150	285	175	110	0	61.4%	-184	64.7%	-13.93	-4.9%
Pitcher Walks \| -149 to -125	97	60	37	0	61.9%	-137	57.8%	+6.79	7.0%
Pitcher Walks \| -124 to -105	44	20	24	0	45.5%	-119	54.4%	-7.27	-16.5%
Pitcher Walks \| +105 to +124 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	+105	48.8%	+1.05	105.0%
Run Line \| ≤ -150	39	25	14	0	64.1%	-156	60.9%	+2.06	5.3%
Run Line \| -149 to -125	81	47	34	0	58.0%	-138	58.0%	+0.09	0.1%
Run Line \| -124 to -105	29	14	15	0	48.3%	-115	53.5%	-2.98	-12.7%
Run Line \| -104 to +104	6	5	1	0	83.3%	+66	60.1%	+3.97	66.2%
Run Line \| +105 to +124	7	3	4	0	42.9%	+112	47.1%	-0.70	-11.6%
Run Line \| +125 to +149 *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+142	41.4%	+1.32	37.7%
Run Line \| ≥ +150 *	4	3	1	0	75.0%	+158	38.8%	+2.96	84.7%
Total \| -124 to -105	53	19	31	3	38.0%	-113	53.0%	-10.92	-23.2%
Total \| -104 to +104	14	8	6	0	57.1%	-44	30.6%	+0.41	3.3%
YRFI \| +105 to +124 *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	+124	44.6%	-1.00	-100.0%
YRFI \| +125 to +149	7	2	5	0	28.6%	+130	43.5%	-2.44	-34.9%
YRFI \| ≥ +150 *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	+150	40.0%	-1.00	-100.0%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5)	3506	2338	1160	8	66.8%	-256	71.9%	-102.20	-2.9%
All props combined	2392	1277	1115	0	53.4%	-119	54.3%	-156.85	-6.6%

Group	Bets	W	L	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Pitcher Hits Allowed	503	288	215	57.3%	-112	52.8%	+4.18	0.8%
Batter Total Bases	71	38	33	53.5%	-86	46.3%	-1.02	-1.4%
YRFI	11	4	7	36.4%	+131	43.2%	-4.44	-40.4%
NRFI	9	1	8	11.1%	+123	44.8%	-6.00	-66.7%
Batter Hits	78	50	28	64.1%	-243	70.8%	-7.27	-9.3%
Pitcher Outs	135	67	68	49.6%	-62	38.2%	-11.88	-8.8%
K Prop	630	341	289	54.1%	-120	54.6%	-35.99	-5.7%
Batter H+R+RBI	955	488	467	51.1%	-126	55.7%	-94.43	-9.9%

Codebook & Documentation

Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.

Metric Columns

Column	Description
Bets	Number of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank)
W / L / P	Wins, Losses, Pushes
Win%	Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator
AvgOdds	Mean American odds across all bets in the bucket
BE%	Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; \|odds\|/(\|odds\|+100) for − odds
Net Units	Sum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable
ROI%	Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked.
*	Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise.

Grade Scale

Grade	Score Threshold	Conditions	Recommendation
A	≥ 10 pts	0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradiction	BEST_PLAY
B	≥ 8 pts	0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradiction	GOOD_ADD
C	≥ 4 pts	Including B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAIL	PASS
D	≥ 2 pts	Including Model Edge hard-FAIL override	PASS
F	< 2 pts	Negative or near-zero edge across checks	HARD_FADE

Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.

Final Signal Layer

Field	Description
Model Grade	The model-strength grade before market trust is interpreted for display.
Trust Tier	Market lifecycle stage: trusted, watch, research, or paused.
Final Signal	The user-facing recommendation after combining model grade and trust tier. Examples: Top Pick, Best Play, Strong Watch, Research Lead, Paused Signal.
Promotion Criteria	Evidence gates showing what a market needs before it can move to the next trust stage.

Top Pick remains unchanged: Grade A + 100% book consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw_diff ≥ 1.5. Other final signals use the same badge-style presentation without changing the Top Pick rule.

Market Lifecycle / Trust Stages

Stage	Performance-report interpretation
trusted	Market is allowed to produce normal actionable recommendations. Continue watching recent windows for drawdown.
watch	Market is visible and can be useful, but sample size or recent performance has not fully cleared trusted criteria.
research	Market should be evaluated in settled results, but not treated as actionable until validation clears.
paused	Market is shadow-only. Settled tracker rows are useful for diagnostics, but not for live bet approval.

Use market lifecycle beside grade. A Grade A in a research or paused market is not the same thing as a Grade A in a trusted market.

Diagnostic / Research Components

Component	How to use it in performance review
PitcherAssessment	Explains pitcher prop and batter prop context: hand, K%, innings, pitch-count proxy, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Evaluate held pitcher-outs candidates separately. The goal is to prove when assessment-driven overs/unders should leave research status.
HRR Component Research	Review hit, run, and RBI component quality rather than judging HRR as one composite stat.
Player Context	Review whether home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, workload, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter context explain prop results. Missing split data should stay neutral.
Pre-lineup Hitter Context	K props can use known active-roster hitters before official lineups post: batter handedness and PA-weighted active-roster K% inform opponent context. Confirmed lineups later replace that estimate with exact batting order, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration.
Free Savant Pitch Quality	Replacement for paid Pitcher List PLV. Uses public Statcast/Savant summary and arsenal fields to evaluate pitch quality, whiff/contact profile, and workload context as diagnostics only.
AI Review	Advisory summary only. It can highlight patterns but should not be counted as a model signal.

V2 Framework - Six Checks

Check	Name	What it evaluates
1	Baby Line	Is the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge.
2	Model Edge	Does our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D.
3	Books Agree	Do ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D.
4	Matchup	Context factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history.
5	Role / Injury	Is the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise?
6	Game Script	Total-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment.

Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.

Sizing Values

Sizing	Units Risked	Included in "Sized Only"?
FULL	1.00	Yes
HALF	0.50	Yes
QRTR	0.25	Yes
(blank)	1.00 (implicit)	No — unsized

Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.

Odds Bands

Band	American Odds Range
≤ −150	Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout
−149 to −125	Moderate favorites
−124 to −105	Slight favorites
−104 to +104	Near pick-em
+105 to +124	Slight underdogs
+125 to +149	Moderate underdogs
≥ +150	Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout

Section Descriptions

Section	What it answers
A — Headline Summary	Overall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side.
B — Bet Type	Performance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only.
C — Bet Type × Grade	Within each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays.
D — Odds Band Summary	Performance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices.
E — Grade × Odds Band	Do A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range?
F — Bet Type × Odds Band	Are certain markets only working at certain prices?
H1 — Game Bets vs Props	Side-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only.
H2 — Prop Type Breakdown	Per-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets.
H3 — Prop Type × Grade	Within each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props.

ROI Denominator Rules

Sized bets: denominator = sum of actual sizing units (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25)
Unsized bets: denominator = number of bets × 1.0 (each treated as 1 unit risked)
Mixed buckets (e.g. "All tracked"): unsized bets contribute 1.0 unit each to denominator
Pushes return the risked amount — they contribute 0 to net units and are excluded from Win%

MLB Betting — Performance Report

📊 Interpretive Summary

Section T — ⭐ Top Pick Performance

Section T2 — Top Pick by Bet Type

Section A — Headline Summary

Section B — Bet Type (all tracked)

Section B — Bet Type (sized only)

Section M — Normalized Loss Miss Distance

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (sized only)

Section D — Odds Band Summary

Section E — Grade × Odds Band