5653 settled bets | 104 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns
All tracked (5653 bets): -231.21 units | ROI -4.1%
Sized only (104 bets): +6.30 units | ROI +8.6%
▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets
Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):
Grade A: -1.8% (454 bets)
Grade B: -4.3% (5192 bets)
Grade C: -34.9% (7 bets)
✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed
Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):
Moneyline: +81.6% ROI | 6 bets | +2.85 units
F5 ML: +14.5% ROI | 29 bets | +3.55 units
Run Line: +4.0% ROI | 167 bets | +6.02 units
Pitcher Hits Allowed: +2.0% ROI | 487 bets | +9.90 units
Batter Total Bases: -1.4% ROI | 71 bets | -1.02 units
Batter Walks: -2.4% ROI | 2019 bets | -49.21 units
Pitcher Walks: -3.0% ROI | 423 bets | -12.65 units
Pitcher Earned Runs: -5.1% ROI | 566 bets | -28.92 units
K Prop: -5.4% ROI | 603 bets | -32.75 units
Pitcher Outs: -8.2% ROI | 129 bets | -10.62 units
F5 Total: -8.9% ROI | 38 bets | -3.38 units
Batter H+R+RBI: -9.2% ROI | 946 bets | -87.10 units
Batter Hits: -9.9% ROI | 77 bets | -7.65 units
Total: -17.7% ROI | 67 bets | -10.52 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
YRFI: -18.0% ROI | 8 bets | -1.44 units
No HR U1.5: -42.7% ROI | 10 bets | -4.27 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
NRFI: -57.1% ROI | 7 bets | -4.00 units
⚠ Red flags:
No HR U1.5: 10 bets, ROI -42.7% — strongly negative
Total: 67 bets, ROI -17.7% — strongly negative
YRFI: 8 bets, ROI -18.0% — strongly negative
Top Pick = Grade A + 100% book consensus (≥3 books) + raw_diff ≥ 1.5 units. Run backfill_top_picks.py to populate historical rows.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Top Pick | 65 | 38 | 27 | 0 | 58.5% | -128 | 56.1% | +1.28 | 2.0% |
| Grade A (all) | 454 | 255 | 199 | 0 | 56.2% | -124 | 55.3% | -8.21 | -1.8% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Batter H+R+RBI | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | -134 | 57.2% | -3.23 | -64.6% |
| ⭐ Batter Total Bases * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -116 | 53.7% | +0.86 | 86.2% |
| ⭐ K Prop | 58 | 35 | 23 | 0 | 60.3% | -127 | 56.0% | +3.05 | 5.3% |
| ⭐ Pitcher Hits Allowed * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -166 | 62.4% | +0.60 | 60.2% |
Sized only = FULL/HALF/QRTR game bets; All tracked includes unsized props.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All tracked | 5653 | 3463 | 2182 | 8 | 61.3% | -198 | 66.4% | -231.21 | -4.1% |
| Sized only | 104 | 51 | 50 | 3 | 50.5% | -27 | 21.3% | +6.30 | 8.6% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 487 | 282 | 205 | 0 | 57.9% | -111 | 52.7% | +9.90 | 2.0% |
| Run Line | 167 | 97 | 70 | 0 | 58.1% | -108 | 51.9% | +6.02 | 4.0% |
| F5 ML | 29 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 45.8% | +155 | 39.3% | +3.55 | 14.5% |
| Moneyline | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Batter Total Bases | 71 | 38 | 33 | 0 | 53.5% | -86 | 46.3% | -1.02 | -1.4% |
| YRFI | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 50.0% | +129 | 43.7% | -1.44 | -18.0% |
| F5 Total | 38 | 20 | 18 | 0 | 52.6% | -128 | 56.1% | -3.38 | -8.9% |
| NRFI | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 14.3% | +126 | 44.2% | -4.00 | -57.1% |
| No HR U1.5 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 30.0% | -110 | 52.4% | -4.27 | -42.7% |
| Batter Hits | 77 | 49 | 28 | 0 | 63.6% | -243 | 70.8% | -7.65 | -9.9% |
| Total | 67 | 27 | 37 | 3 | 42.2% | -98 | 49.6% | -10.52 | -17.7% |
| Pitcher Outs | 129 | 64 | 65 | 0 | 49.6% | -59 | 37.2% | -10.62 | -8.2% |
| Pitcher Walks | 423 | 254 | 169 | 0 | 60.0% | -166 | 62.4% | -12.65 | -3.0% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 566 | 317 | 249 | 0 | 56.0% | -142 | 58.7% | -28.92 | -5.1% |
| K Prop | 603 | 327 | 276 | 0 | 54.2% | -120 | 54.5% | -32.75 | -5.4% |
| Batter Walks | 2019 | 1479 | 540 | 0 | 73.3% | -330 | 76.7% | -49.21 | -2.4% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | 946 | 487 | 459 | 0 | 51.5% | -126 | 55.7% | -87.10 | -9.2% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run Line | 44 | 27 | 17 | 0 | 61.4% | -49 | 33.1% | +8.39 | 30.0% |
| F5 ML | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% | +161 | 38.4% | +4.34 | 57.9% |
| Moneyline | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Total | 42 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 37.5% | -90 | 47.3% | -9.29 | -26.9% |
Loss-only diagnostic: miss distance divided by the posted line. This is observational and does not change grades.
| Bet Type | Losses | Avg Miss% | Median Miss% | <=15% | <=25% | <=33% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | 459 | 73.0% | 100.0% | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Batter Hits | 28 | 59.5% | 33.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 33 | 91.9% | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Batter Walks | 540 | 131.9% | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F5 Total | 18 | 43.9% | 44.2% | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| K Prop | 276 | 34.8% | 33.3% | 108 | 113 | 134 |
| No HR U1.5 | 7 | 109.5% | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 249 | 69.2% | 60.0% | 4 | 45 | 45 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 205 | 32.7% | 27.3% | 77 | 86 | 128 |
| Pitcher Outs | 65 | 10.8% | 2.9% | 46 | 58 | 61 |
| Pitcher Walks | 169 | 57.9% | 33.3% | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| Run Line | 70 | 209.5% | 166.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 37 | 35.1% | 33.3% | 9 | 14 | 17 |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | A | 123 | 68 | 55 | 0 | 55.3% | -133 | 57.0% | -3.43 | -2.8% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | B | 823 | 419 | 404 | 0 | 50.9% | -124 | 55.5% | -83.67 | -10.2% |
| Batter Hits | B | 77 | 49 | 28 | 0 | 63.6% | -243 | 70.8% | -7.65 | -9.9% |
| Batter Total Bases | B | 71 | 38 | 33 | 0 | 53.5% | -86 | 46.3% | -1.02 | -1.4% |
| Batter Walks | A | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 60.0% | -96 | 48.9% | +0.65 | 6.5% |
| Batter Walks | B | 2009 | 1473 | 536 | 0 | 73.3% | -331 | 76.8% | -49.86 | -2.5% |
| F5 ML | B | 29 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 45.8% | +155 | 39.3% | +3.55 | 14.5% |
| F5 Total | A * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -146 | 59.3% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| F5 Total | B | 37 | 20 | 17 | 0 | 54.1% | -127 | 56.0% | -2.38 | -6.4% |
| K Prop | A | 260 | 146 | 114 | 0 | 56.2% | -128 | 56.2% | -6.76 | -2.6% |
| K Prop | B | 343 | 181 | 162 | 0 | 52.8% | -113 | 53.1% | -25.99 | -7.6% |
| Moneyline | B | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| NRFI | B | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | +127 | 44.1% | -2.00 | -40.0% |
| NRFI | C * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | +125 | 44.4% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| No HR U1.5 | B | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 30.0% | -110 | 52.4% | -4.27 | -42.7% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | A * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | -127 | 55.9% | -0.21 | -10.6% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | B | 564 | 316 | 248 | 0 | 56.0% | -142 | 58.7% | -28.71 | -5.1% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | A | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | -143 | 58.9% | -1.65 | -32.9% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | B | 482 | 280 | 202 | 0 | 58.1% | -111 | 52.6% | +11.55 | 2.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | A * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | -152 | 60.3% | -1.32 | -44.1% |
| Pitcher Outs | B | 126 | 63 | 63 | 0 | 50.0% | -57 | 36.3% | -9.30 | -7.4% |
| Pitcher Walks | A * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | -165 | 62.3% | +0.37 | 12.4% |
| Pitcher Walks | B | 420 | 252 | 168 | 0 | 60.0% | -166 | 62.4% | -13.03 | -3.1% |
| Run Line | A | 46 | 28 | 18 | 0 | 60.9% | -73 | 42.1% | +4.65 | 12.4% |
| Run Line | B | 121 | 69 | 52 | 0 | 57.0% | -121 | 54.8% | +1.37 | 1.2% |
| Total | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -101 | 50.2% | +0.49 | 99.0% |
| Total | B | 66 | 26 | 37 | 3 | 41.3% | -98 | 49.6% | -11.01 | -18.7% |
| YRFI | B * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +130 | 43.5% | -1.00 | -33.3% |
| YRFI | C | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | +129 | 43.7% | -0.44 | -8.8% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F5 ML | B | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% | +161 | 38.4% | +4.34 | 57.9% |
| Moneyline | B | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Run Line | A | 28 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 71.4% | -42 | 29.6% | +8.85 | 45.4% |
| Run Line | B | 16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.8% | -63 | 38.5% | -0.46 | -5.4% |
| Total | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -101 | 50.2% | +0.49 | 99.0% |
| Total | B | 41 | 14 | 25 | 2 | 35.9% | -90 | 47.2% | -9.78 | -28.8% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ -150 | 3119 | 2161 | 958 | 0 | 69.3% | -278 | 73.5% | -79.44 | -2.5% |
| -149 to -125 | 1373 | 747 | 626 | 0 | 54.4% | -137 | 57.8% | -79.37 | -5.8% |
| -124 to -105 | 814 | 398 | 413 | 3 | 49.1% | -117 | 53.9% | -69.25 | -8.6% |
| -104 to +104 | 97 | 49 | 48 | 0 | 50.5% | -2 | 1.5% | -0.66 | -0.7% |
| +105 to +124 | 149 | 65 | 84 | 0 | 43.6% | +114 | 46.7% | -10.11 | -6.9% |
| +125 to +149 | 63 | 27 | 35 | 1 | 43.5% | +133 | 42.8% | +1.15 | 1.9% |
| ≥ +150 | 33 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 44.8% | +183 | 35.3% | +6.47 | 22.7% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | ≤ -150 | 106 | 64 | 42 | 0 | 60.4% | -159 | 61.3% | -1.51 | -1.4% |
| A | -149 to -125 | 236 | 130 | 106 | 0 | 55.1% | -136 | 57.6% | -10.85 | -4.7% |
| A | -124 to -105 | 87 | 47 | 40 | 0 | 54.0% | -118 | 54.2% | -1.18 | -1.4% |
| A | -104 to +104 * | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0% | +51 | 66.1% | +1.54 | 43.9% |
| A | +105 to +124 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40.0% | +117 | 46.2% | -1.30 | -13.0% |
| A | +125 to +149 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 71.4% | +134 | 42.7% | +4.73 | 67.6% |
| A | ≥ +150 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +180 | 35.8% | +0.38 | 10.7% |
| B | ≤ -150 | 3013 | 2097 | 916 | 0 | 69.6% | -282 | 73.8% | -77.93 | -2.6% |
| B | -149 to -125 | 1137 | 617 | 520 | 0 | 54.3% | -137 | 57.8% | -68.53 | -6.0% |
| B | -124 to -105 | 727 | 351 | 373 | 3 | 48.5% | -117 | 53.8% | -68.06 | -9.5% |
| B | -104 to +104 | 93 | 46 | 47 | 0 | 49.5% | -4 | 3.6% | -2.19 | -2.4% |
| B | +105 to +124 | 137 | 61 | 76 | 0 | 44.5% | +114 | 46.8% | -6.81 | -5.0% |
| B | +125 to +149 | 51 | 20 | 30 | 1 | 40.0% | +134 | 42.8% | -3.14 | -6.5% |
| B | ≥ +150 | 29 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 44.0% | +184 | 35.2% | +6.09 | 24.4% |
| C | +105 to +124 * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | +121 | 45.2% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| C | +125 to +149 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | +130 | 43.4% | -0.44 | -8.8% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | ≤ -150 | 156 | 87 | 69 | 0 | 55.8% | -158 | 61.2% | -13.80 | -8.8% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -149 to -125 | 469 | 244 | 225 | 0 | 52.0% | -136 | 57.6% | -44.88 | -9.6% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -124 to -105 | 277 | 137 | 140 | 0 | 49.5% | -118 | 54.2% | -24.43 | -8.8% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -104 to +104 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | -31 | 23.7% | -2.10 | -10.5% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | +105 to +124 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 41.2% | +115 | 46.4% | -1.91 | -11.2% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | +125 to +149 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9% | +131 | 43.2% | +0.02 | 0.3% |
| Batter Hits | ≤ -150 | 77 | 49 | 28 | 0 | 63.6% | -243 | 70.8% | -7.65 | -9.9% |
| Batter Total Bases | ≤ -150 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 55.6% | -185 | 64.9% | -2.55 | -14.2% |
| Batter Total Bases | -149 to -125 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 63.2% | -133 | 57.2% | +1.90 | 10.0% |
| Batter Total Bases | -124 to -105 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 42.1% | -118 | 54.1% | -4.24 | -22.3% |
| Batter Total Bases | +105 to +124 * | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 25.0% | +118 | 45.9% | -1.76 | -44.0% |
| Batter Total Bases | +125 to +149 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 60.0% | +135 | 42.6% | +3.99 | 39.9% |
| Batter Total Bases | ≥ +150 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +163 | 38.0% | +1.63 | 163.0% |
| Batter Walks | ≤ -150 | 1900 | 1416 | 484 | 0 | 74.5% | -346 | 77.6% | -47.33 | -2.5% |
| Batter Walks | -149 to -125 | 57 | 29 | 28 | 0 | 50.9% | -135 | 57.4% | -6.38 | -11.2% |
| Batter Walks | -124 to -105 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 71.4% | -117 | 54.0% | +11.33 | 32.4% |
| Batter Walks | -104 to +104 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | +20 | 83.5% | -1.00 | -20.0% |
| Batter Walks | +105 to +124 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40.0% | +112 | 47.3% | -1.57 | -15.7% |
| Batter Walks | +125 to +149 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | +132 | 43.2% | -2.73 | -54.6% |
| Batter Walks | ≥ +150 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 28.6% | +208 | 32.5% | -1.53 | -21.9% |
| F5 ML | +105 to +124 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +123 | 44.8% | +0.32 | 10.7% |
| F5 ML | +125 to +149 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 55.6% | +140 | 41.6% | +2.67 | 33.4% |
| F5 ML | ≥ +150 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 36.4% | +173 | 36.7% | +0.55 | 4.1% |
| F5 Total | ≤ -150 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -154 | 60.6% | +0.65 | 64.9% |
| F5 Total | -149 to -125 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 64.0% | -140 | 58.4% | +2.49 | 9.9% |
| F5 Total | -124 to -105 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 27.3% | -119 | 54.3% | -5.51 | -50.1% |
| F5 Total | +105 to +124 * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | +114 | 46.7% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| K Prop | ≤ -150 | 179 | 112 | 67 | 0 | 62.6% | -158 | 61.2% | +4.20 | 2.3% |
| K Prop | -149 to -125 | 265 | 144 | 121 | 0 | 54.3% | -138 | 57.9% | -16.08 | -6.1% |
| K Prop | -124 to -105 | 110 | 49 | 61 | 0 | 44.5% | -117 | 54.0% | -19.20 | -17.5% |
| K Prop | -104 to +104 * | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -0 | 0.2% | +3.99 | 99.8% |
| K Prop | +105 to +124 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 0 | 40.0% | +116 | 46.3% | -4.70 | -13.4% |
| K Prop | +125 to +149 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40.0% | +127 | 44.0% | -0.96 | -9.6% |
| Moneyline | ≥ +150 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| NRFI | +105 to +124 * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | +121 | 45.2% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| NRFI | +125 to +149 * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | +131 | 43.3% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| No HR U1.5 | -124 to -105 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 30.0% | -110 | 52.4% | -4.27 | -42.7% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | ≤ -150 | 293 | 177 | 116 | 0 | 60.4% | -163 | 61.9% | -7.04 | -2.4% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -149 to -125 | 168 | 85 | 83 | 0 | 50.6% | -138 | 57.9% | -21.21 | -12.6% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -124 to -105 | 89 | 47 | 42 | 0 | 52.8% | -116 | 53.7% | -1.28 | -1.4% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -104 to +104 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40.0% | -1 | 0.6% | -2.01 | -20.1% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | +105 to +124 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 66.7% | +113 | 46.9% | +2.61 | 43.5% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ≤ -150 | 153 | 97 | 56 | 0 | 63.4% | -159 | 61.4% | +5.07 | 3.3% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -149 to -125 | 167 | 96 | 71 | 0 | 57.5% | -138 | 58.0% | -1.26 | -0.8% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -124 to -105 | 102 | 58 | 44 | 0 | 56.9% | -115 | 53.6% | +6.46 | 6.3% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -104 to +104 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 44.0% | +20 | 83.3% | -2.96 | -11.8% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | +105 to +124 | 39 | 19 | 20 | 0 | 48.7% | +112 | 47.3% | +1.32 | 3.4% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | +125 to +149 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +127 | 44.1% | +1.27 | 127.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | ≤ -150 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 61.9% | -173 | 63.4% | -0.56 | -2.7% |
| Pitcher Outs | -149 to -125 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 0 | 57.1% | -138 | 58.0% | -0.39 | -1.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | -124 to -105 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 0 | 42.9% | -115 | 53.5% | -6.94 | -19.8% |
| Pitcher Outs | -104 to +104 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 50.0% | +14 | 87.5% | +0.03 | 0.2% |
| Pitcher Outs | +105 to +124 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 45.5% | +113 | 46.9% | -0.78 | -3.5% |
| Pitcher Outs | +125 to +149 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 33.3% | +133 | 42.9% | -1.99 | -22.1% |
| Pitcher Walks | ≤ -150 | 282 | 174 | 108 | 0 | 61.7% | -184 | 64.7% | -12.49 | -4.4% |
| Pitcher Walks | -149 to -125 | 96 | 59 | 37 | 0 | 61.5% | -137 | 57.8% | +6.06 | 6.3% |
| Pitcher Walks | -124 to -105 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 0 | 45.5% | -119 | 54.4% | -7.27 | -16.5% |
| Pitcher Walks | +105 to +124 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +105 | 48.8% | +1.05 | 105.0% |
| Run Line | ≤ -150 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 0 | 64.1% | -156 | 60.9% | +2.06 | 5.3% |
| Run Line | -149 to -125 | 79 | 46 | 33 | 0 | 58.2% | -138 | 58.0% | +0.39 | 0.5% |
| Run Line | -124 to -105 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 48.3% | -115 | 53.5% | -2.98 | -12.7% |
| Run Line | -104 to +104 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 80.0% | +60 | 62.6% | +2.97 | 59.4% |
| Run Line | +105 to +124 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9% | +112 | 47.1% | -0.70 | -11.6% |
| Run Line | +125 to +149 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +142 | 41.4% | +1.32 | 37.7% |
| Run Line | ≥ +150 * | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0% | +158 | 38.8% | +2.96 | 84.7% |
| Total | -124 to -105 | 53 | 19 | 31 | 3 | 38.0% | -113 | 53.0% | -10.92 | -23.2% |
| Total | -104 to +104 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 57.1% | -44 | 30.6% | +0.41 | 3.3% |
| YRFI | +105 to +124 * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | +124 | 44.6% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| YRFI | +125 to +149 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | +130 | 43.5% | -0.44 | -8.8% |
Props are always unsized. This section is unaffected by --sized-only.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5) | 3325 | 2211 | 1106 | 8 | 66.7% | -253 | 71.7% | -96.53 | -2.9% |
| All props combined | 2328 | 1252 | 1076 | 0 | 53.8% | -119 | 54.3% | -134.68 | -5.8% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 487 | 282 | 205 | 0 | 57.9% | -111 | 52.7% | +9.90 | 2.0% |
| Batter Total Bases | 71 | 38 | 33 | 0 | 53.5% | -86 | 46.3% | -1.02 | -1.4% |
| YRFI | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 50.0% | +129 | 43.7% | -1.44 | -18.0% |
| NRFI | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 14.3% | +126 | 44.2% | -4.00 | -57.1% |
| Batter Hits | 77 | 49 | 28 | 0 | 63.6% | -243 | 70.8% | -7.65 | -9.9% |
| Pitcher Outs | 129 | 64 | 65 | 0 | 49.6% | -59 | 37.2% | -10.62 | -8.2% |
| K Prop | 603 | 327 | 276 | 0 | 54.2% | -120 | 54.5% | -32.75 | -5.4% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | 946 | 487 | 459 | 0 | 51.5% | -126 | 55.7% | -87.10 | -9.2% |
Grades only populate from the run that fixed the tracker bug onward.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | A | 123 | 68 | 55 | 0 | 55.3% | -133 | 57.0% | -3.43 | -2.8% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | B | 823 | 419 | 404 | 0 | 50.9% | -124 | 55.5% | -83.67 | -10.2% |
| Batter Hits | B | 77 | 49 | 28 | 0 | 63.6% | -243 | 70.8% | -7.65 | -9.9% |
| Batter Total Bases | B | 71 | 38 | 33 | 0 | 53.5% | -86 | 46.3% | -1.02 | -1.4% |
| K Prop | A | 260 | 146 | 114 | 0 | 56.2% | -128 | 56.2% | -6.76 | -2.6% |
| K Prop | B | 343 | 181 | 162 | 0 | 52.8% | -113 | 53.1% | -25.99 | -7.6% |
| NRFI | B | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | +127 | 44.1% | -2.00 | -40.0% |
| NRFI | C * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | +125 | 44.4% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | A | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | -143 | 58.9% | -1.65 | -32.9% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | B | 482 | 280 | 202 | 0 | 58.1% | -111 | 52.6% | +11.55 | 2.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | A * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | -152 | 60.3% | -1.32 | -44.1% |
| Pitcher Outs | B | 126 | 63 | 63 | 0 | 50.0% | -57 | 36.3% | -9.30 | -7.4% |
| YRFI | B * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +130 | 43.5% | -1.00 | -33.3% |
| YRFI | C | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | +129 | 43.7% | -0.44 | -8.8% |
Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
| Bets | Number of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank) |
| W / L / P | Wins, Losses, Pushes |
| Win% | Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator |
| AvgOdds | Mean American odds across all bets in the bucket |
| BE% | Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; |odds|/(|odds|+100) for − odds |
| Net Units | Sum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable |
| ROI% | Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked. |
| * | Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise. |
| Grade | Score Threshold | Conditions | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | ≥ 10 pts | 0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradiction | BEST_PLAY |
| B | ≥ 8 pts | 0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradiction | GOOD_ADD |
| C | ≥ 4 pts | Including B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAIL | PASS |
| D | ≥ 2 pts | Including Model Edge hard-FAIL override | PASS |
| F | < 2 pts | Negative or near-zero edge across checks | HARD_FADE |
Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| Model Grade | The model-strength grade before market trust is interpreted for display. |
| Trust Tier | Market lifecycle stage: trusted, watch, research, or paused. |
| Final Signal | The user-facing recommendation after combining model grade and trust tier. Examples: Top Pick, Best Play, Strong Watch, Research Lead, Paused Signal. |
| Promotion Criteria | Evidence gates showing what a market needs before it can move to the next trust stage. |
Top Pick remains unchanged: Grade A + 100% book consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw_diff ≥ 1.5. Other final signals use the same badge-style presentation without changing the Top Pick rule.
| Stage | Performance-report interpretation |
|---|---|
| trusted | Market is allowed to produce normal actionable recommendations. Continue watching recent windows for drawdown. |
| watch | Market is visible and can be useful, but sample size or recent performance has not fully cleared trusted criteria. |
| research | Market should be evaluated in settled results, but not treated as actionable until validation clears. |
| paused | Market is shadow-only. Settled tracker rows are useful for diagnostics, but not for live bet approval. |
Use market lifecycle beside grade. A Grade A in a research or paused market is not the same thing as a Grade A in a trusted market.
| Component | How to use it in performance review |
|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Explains pitcher prop and batter prop context: hand, K%, innings, pitch-count proxy, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Evaluate held pitcher-outs candidates separately. The goal is to prove when assessment-driven overs/unders should leave research status. |
| HRR Component Research | Review hit, run, and RBI component quality rather than judging HRR as one composite stat. |
| Player Context | Review whether home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, workload, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter context explain prop results. Missing split data should stay neutral. |
| Pre-lineup Hitter Context | K props can use known active-roster hitters before official lineups post: batter handedness and PA-weighted active-roster K% inform opponent context. Confirmed lineups later replace that estimate with exact batting order, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration. |
| Free Savant Pitch Quality | Replacement for paid Pitcher List PLV. Uses public Statcast/Savant summary and arsenal fields to evaluate pitch quality, whiff/contact profile, and workload context as diagnostics only. |
| AI Review | Advisory summary only. It can highlight patterns but should not be counted as a model signal. |
| Check | Name | What it evaluates |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Is the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge. |
| 2 | Model Edge | Does our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D. |
| 3 | Books Agree | Do ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D. |
| 4 | Matchup | Context factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history. |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Is the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise? |
| 6 | Game Script | Total-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment. |
Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.
| Sizing | Units Risked | Included in "Sized Only"? |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | 1.00 | Yes |
| HALF | 0.50 | Yes |
| QRTR | 0.25 | Yes |
| (blank) | 1.00 (implicit) | No — unsized |
Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.
| Band | American Odds Range |
|---|---|
| ≤ −150 | Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout |
| −149 to −125 | Moderate favorites |
| −124 to −105 | Slight favorites |
| −104 to +104 | Near pick-em |
| +105 to +124 | Slight underdogs |
| +125 to +149 | Moderate underdogs |
| ≥ +150 | Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout |
| Section | What it answers |
|---|---|
| A — Headline Summary | Overall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side. |
| B — Bet Type | Performance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only. |
| C — Bet Type × Grade | Within each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays. |
| D — Odds Band Summary | Performance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices. |
| E — Grade × Odds Band | Do A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range? |
| F — Bet Type × Odds Band | Are certain markets only working at certain prices? |
| H1 — Game Bets vs Props | Side-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only. |
| H2 — Prop Type Breakdown | Per-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets. |
| H3 — Prop Type × Grade | Within each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props. |