MLB Betting — Performance Report 2026-08-08

Generated 2026-08-08 | Date range: all → 2026-08-08 | 5372 settled bets (104 sized)

📊 Interpretive Summary

5372 settled bets | 104 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns

All tracked (5372 bets): -209.33 units | ROI -3.9%

Sized only (104 bets): +6.30 units | ROI +8.6%

▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets

Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):

Grade A: -2.0% (446 bets)

Grade B: -4.0% (4920 bets)

Grade C: -62.0% (6 bets)

✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed

Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):

Moneyline: +81.6% ROI | 6 bets | +2.85 units

F5 ML: +19.3% ROI | 28 bets | +4.55 units

Run Line: +4.0% ROI | 162 bets | +5.79 units

Pitcher Hits Allowed: +0.9% ROI | 474 bets | +4.08 units

Batter Total Bases: -1.4% ROI | 71 bets | -1.02 units

Batter Walks: -1.7% ROI | 1839 bets | -30.40 units

Pitcher Walks: -2.7% ROI | 407 bets | -10.91 units

F5 Total: -3.5% ROI | 34 bets | -1.18 units

Pitcher Earned Runs: -4.8% ROI | 540 bets | -26.01 units

K Prop: -5.4% ROI | 592 bets | -32.13 units

Pitcher Outs: -8.7% ROI | 124 bets | -10.85 units

Batter H+R+RBI: -9.2% ROI | 931 bets | -85.64 units

Batter Hits: -10.6% ROI | 76 bets | -8.08 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

Total: -18.1% ROI | 65 bets | -10.39 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

YRFI: -38.9% ROI | 7 bets | -2.72 units

No HR U1.5: -42.7% ROI | 10 bets | -4.27 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

NRFI: -50.0% ROI | 6 bets | -3.00 units

⚠ Red flags:

No HR U1.5: 10 bets, ROI -42.7% — strongly negative

Total: 65 bets, ROI -18.1% — strongly negative

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
⭐ Top Pick	61	35	26	0	57.4%	-128	56.1%	+0.10	0.2%
Grade A (all)	446	250	196	0	56.1%	-123	55.3%	-8.76	-2.0%

Group	Bets	W	L	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
⭐ Batter H+R+RBI	5	1	4	20.0%	-134	57.2%	-3.23	-64.6%
⭐ Batter Total Bases *	1	1	0	100.0%	-116	53.7%	+0.86	86.2%
⭐ K Prop	54	32	22	59.3%	-127	55.9%	+1.87	3.5%
⭐ Pitcher Hits Allowed *	1	1	0	100.0%	-166	62.4%	+0.60	60.2%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
All tracked	5372	3281	2083	8	61.2%	-194	65.9%	-209.33	-3.9%
Sized only	104	51	50	3	50.5%	-27	21.3%	+6.30	8.6%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Run Line	162	94	68	0	58.0%	-107	51.7%	+5.79	4.0%
F5 ML	28	11	12	5	47.8%	+154	39.3%	+4.55	19.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	474	271	203	0	57.2%	-111	52.7%	+4.08	0.9%
Moneyline	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
Batter Total Bases	71	38	33	0	53.5%	-86	46.3%	-1.02	-1.4%
F5 Total	34	19	15	0	55.9%	-128	56.2%	-1.18	-3.5%
YRFI	7	3	4	0	42.9%	+129	43.7%	-2.72	-38.9%
NRFI	6	1	5	0	16.7%	+125	44.5%	-3.00	-50.0%
No HR U1.5	10	3	7	0	30.0%	-110	52.4%	-4.27	-42.7%
Batter Hits	76	48	28	0	63.2%	-243	70.8%	-8.08	-10.6%
Total	65	26	36	3	41.9%	-98	49.5%	-10.39	-18.1%
Pitcher Outs	124	61	63	0	49.2%	-56	35.9%	-10.85	-8.7%
Pitcher Walks	407	245	162	0	60.2%	-166	62.4%	-10.91	-2.7%
Pitcher Earned Runs	540	303	237	0	56.1%	-142	58.6%	-26.01	-4.8%
Batter Walks	1839	1355	484	0	73.7%	-327	76.6%	-30.40	-1.7%
K Prop	592	321	271	0	54.2%	-119	54.4%	-32.13	-5.4%
Batter H+R+RBI	931	479	452	0	51.5%	-125	55.6%	-85.64	-9.2%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Run Line	44	27	17	0	61.4%	-49	33.1%	+8.39	30.0%
F5 ML	12	6	5	1	54.5%	+161	38.4%	+4.34	57.9%
Moneyline	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
Total	42	15	25	2	37.5%	-90	47.3%	-9.29	-26.9%

Bet Type	Losses	Avg Miss%	Median Miss%	<=15%	<=25%	<=33%
Batter H+R+RBI	452	72.9%	100.0%	1	4	4
Batter Hits	28	59.5%	33.3%	0	0	0
Batter Total Bases	33	91.9%	100.0%	0	0	0
Batter Walks	484	131.8%	100.0%	0	0	0
F5 Total	15	50.5%	55.6%	2	2	5
K Prop	271	34.6%	33.3%	107	112	133
No HR U1.5	7	109.5%	100.0%	0	0	0
Pitcher Earned Runs	237	68.6%	60.0%	3	44	44
Pitcher Hits Allowed	203	32.2%	27.3%	77	86	128
Pitcher Outs	63	10.8%	2.9%	45	56	59
Pitcher Walks	162	58.1%	33.3%	0	8	8
Run Line	68	207.8%	166.7%	0	0	0
Total	36	35.9%	33.3%	8	13	16

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Batter H+R+RBI \| A	123	68	55	0	55.3%	-133	57.0%	-3.43	-2.8%
Batter H+R+RBI \| B	808	411	397	0	50.9%	-124	55.4%	-82.21	-10.2%
Batter Hits \| B	76	48	28	0	63.2%	-243	70.8%	-8.08	-10.6%
Batter Total Bases \| B	71	38	33	0	53.5%	-86	46.3%	-1.02	-1.4%
Batter Walks \| A	10	6	4	0	60.0%	-96	48.9%	+0.65	6.5%
Batter Walks \| B	1829	1349	480	0	73.8%	-328	76.6%	-31.05	-1.7%
F5 ML \| B	28	11	12	5	47.8%	+154	39.3%	+4.55	19.3%
F5 Total \| A *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	-146	59.3%	-1.00	-100.0%
F5 Total \| B	33	19	14	0	57.6%	-128	56.1%	-0.18	-0.5%
K Prop \| A	254	141	113	0	55.5%	-128	56.2%	-9.32	-3.7%
K Prop \| B	338	180	158	0	53.3%	-113	53.0%	-22.80	-6.7%
Moneyline \| B	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
NRFI \| B *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+124	44.6%	-1.00	-25.0%
NRFI \| C *	2	0	2	0	0.0%	+125	44.4%	-2.00	-100.0%
No HR U1.5 \| B	10	3	7	0	30.0%	-110	52.4%	-4.27	-42.7%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| A *	2	1	1	0	50.0%	-127	55.9%	-0.21	-10.6%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| B	538	302	236	0	56.1%	-142	58.6%	-25.79	-4.8%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| A	5	2	3	0	40.0%	-143	58.9%	-1.65	-32.9%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| B	469	269	200	0	57.4%	-111	52.6%	+5.72	1.2%
Pitcher Outs \| A *	3	1	2	0	33.3%	-152	60.3%	-1.32	-44.1%
Pitcher Outs \| B	121	60	61	0	49.6%	-54	35.0%	-9.52	-7.9%
Pitcher Walks \| A *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	-165	62.3%	+0.37	12.4%
Pitcher Walks \| B	404	243	161	0	60.1%	-166	62.4%	-11.28	-2.8%
Run Line \| A	44	28	16	0	63.6%	-70	41.2%	+6.65	18.7%
Run Line \| B	118	66	52	0	55.9%	-121	54.8%	-0.86	-0.8%
Total \| A *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-101	50.2%	+0.49	99.0%
Total \| B	64	25	36	3	41.0%	-98	49.5%	-10.88	-19.1%
YRFI \| B *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	+130	43.5%	-1.00	-33.3%
YRFI \| C *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+129	43.7%	-1.72	-43.0%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
F5 ML \| B	12	6	5	1	54.5%	+161	38.4%	+4.34	57.9%
Moneyline \| B	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
Run Line \| A	28	20	8	0	71.4%	-42	29.6%	+8.85	45.4%
Run Line \| B	16	7	9	0	43.8%	-63	38.5%	-0.46	-5.4%
Total \| A *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-101	50.2%	+0.49	99.0%
Total \| B	41	14	25	2	35.9%	-90	47.2%	-9.78	-28.8%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
≤ -150	2901	2008	893	0	69.2%	-274	73.3%	-68.79	-2.4%
-149 to -125	1334	726	608	0	54.4%	-137	57.8%	-76.62	-5.8%
-124 to -105	796	393	400	3	49.6%	-117	53.9%	-60.48	-7.7%
-104 to +104	95	47	48	0	49.5%	-2	1.5%	-2.66	-2.8%
+105 to +124	148	65	83	0	43.9%	+114	46.7%	-9.11	-6.2%
+125 to +149	61	26	34	1	43.3%	+134	42.8%	+0.87	1.5%
≥ +150	32	13	15	4	46.4%	+184	35.3%	+7.47	27.2%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
A \| ≤ -150	104	62	42	0	59.6%	-158	61.3%	-2.76	-2.7%
A \| -149 to -125	233	128	105	0	54.9%	-136	57.6%	-11.32	-5.0%
A \| -124 to -105	84	46	38	0	54.8%	-118	54.2%	-0.02	-0.0%
A \| -104 to +104 *	4	3	1	0	75.0%	+51	66.1%	+1.54	43.9%
A \| +105 to +124	10	4	6	0	40.0%	+117	46.2%	-1.30	-13.0%
A \| +125 to +149	7	5	2	0	71.4%	+134	42.7%	+4.73	67.6%
A \| ≥ +150 *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+180	35.8%	+0.38	10.7%
B \| ≤ -150	2797	1946	851	0	69.6%	-278	73.6%	-66.03	-2.4%
B \| -149 to -125	1101	598	503	0	54.3%	-137	57.8%	-65.30	-6.0%
B \| -124 to -105	712	347	362	3	48.9%	-117	53.8%	-60.47	-8.6%
B \| -104 to +104	91	44	47	0	48.4%	-4	3.7%	-4.19	-4.7%
B \| +105 to +124	136	61	75	0	44.9%	+114	46.8%	-5.81	-4.3%
B \| +125 to +149	50	20	29	1	40.8%	+134	42.8%	-2.14	-4.5%
B \| ≥ +150	28	11	13	4	45.8%	+184	35.2%	+7.09	29.6%
C \| +105 to +124 *	2	0	2	0	0.0%	+121	45.2%	-2.00	-100.0%
C \| +125 to +149 *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+131	43.3%	-1.72	-43.0%

Section F — Bet Type × Odds Band

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Batter H+R+RBI \| ≤ -150	152	84	68	0	55.3%	-158	61.2%	-14.74	-9.7%
Batter H+R+RBI \| -149 to -125	458	239	219	0	52.2%	-136	57.6%	-42.48	-9.3%
Batter H+R+RBI \| -124 to -105	277	137	140	0	49.5%	-118	54.2%	-24.43	-8.8%
Batter H+R+RBI \| -104 to +104	20	9	11	0	45.0%	-31	23.7%	-2.10	-10.5%
Batter H+R+RBI \| +105 to +124	17	7	10	0	41.2%	+115	46.4%	-1.91	-11.2%
Batter H+R+RBI \| +125 to +149	7	3	4	0	42.9%	+131	43.2%	+0.02	0.3%
Batter Hits \| ≤ -150	76	48	28	0	63.2%	-243	70.8%	-8.08	-10.6%
Batter Total Bases \| ≤ -150	18	10	8	0	55.6%	-185	64.9%	-2.55	-14.2%
Batter Total Bases \| -149 to -125	19	12	7	0	63.2%	-133	57.2%	+1.90	10.0%
Batter Total Bases \| -124 to -105	19	8	11	0	42.1%	-118	54.1%	-4.24	-22.3%
Batter Total Bases \| +105 to +124 *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+118	45.9%	-1.76	-44.0%
Batter Total Bases \| +125 to +149	10	6	4	0	60.0%	+135	42.6%	+3.99	39.9%
Batter Total Bases \| ≥ +150 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	+163	38.0%	+1.63	163.0%
Batter Walks \| ≤ -150	1723	1293	430	0	75.0%	-344	77.5%	-29.69	-1.7%
Batter Walks \| -149 to -125	55	29	26	0	52.7%	-135	57.4%	-4.38	-8.0%
Batter Walks \| -124 to -105	34	24	10	0	70.6%	-117	54.0%	+10.50	30.9%
Batter Walks \| -104 to +104	5	2	3	0	40.0%	+20	83.5%	-1.00	-20.0%
Batter Walks \| +105 to +124	10	4	6	0	40.0%	+112	47.3%	-1.57	-15.7%
Batter Walks \| +125 to +149	5	1	4	0	20.0%	+132	43.2%	-2.73	-54.6%
Batter Walks \| ≥ +150	7	2	5	0	28.6%	+208	32.5%	-1.53	-21.9%
F5 ML \| +105 to +124 *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+123	44.8%	+0.32	10.7%
F5 ML \| +125 to +149	10	5	4	1	55.6%	+140	41.6%	+2.67	33.4%
F5 ML \| ≥ +150	14	4	6	4	40.0%	+173	36.7%	+1.55	12.4%
F5 Total \| ≤ -150 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-154	60.6%	+0.65	64.9%
F5 Total \| -149 to -125	23	15	8	0	65.2%	-141	58.5%	+2.69	11.7%
F5 Total \| -124 to -105	9	3	6	0	33.3%	-119	54.3%	-3.51	-39.0%
F5 Total \| +105 to +124 *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	+114	46.7%	-1.00	-100.0%
K Prop \| ≤ -150	175	110	65	0	62.9%	-158	61.2%	+4.95	2.8%
K Prop \| -149 to -125	262	142	120	0	54.2%	-138	57.9%	-16.56	-6.3%
K Prop \| -124 to -105	106	47	59	0	44.3%	-117	53.9%	-18.85	-17.8%
K Prop \| -104 to +104 *	4	4	0	0	100.0%	-0	0.2%	+3.99	99.8%
K Prop \| +105 to +124	35	14	21	0	40.0%	+116	46.3%	-4.70	-13.4%
K Prop \| +125 to +149	10	4	6	0	40.0%	+127	44.0%	-0.96	-9.6%
Moneyline \| ≥ +150	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
NRFI \| +105 to +124 *	2	0	2	0	0.0%	+121	45.2%	-2.00	-100.0%
NRFI \| +125 to +149 *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	+132	43.1%	-1.00	-100.0%
No HR U1.5 \| -124 to -105	10	3	7	0	30.0%	-110	52.4%	-4.27	-42.7%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| ≤ -150	280	167	113	0	59.6%	-162	61.9%	-10.19	-3.6%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| -149 to -125	158	81	77	0	51.3%	-137	57.9%	-18.14	-11.5%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| -124 to -105	86	47	39	0	54.7%	-116	53.7%	+1.72	2.0%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| -104 to +104	10	4	6	0	40.0%	-1	0.6%	-2.01	-20.1%
Pitcher Earned Runs \| +105 to +124	6	4	2	0	66.7%	+113	46.9%	+2.61	43.5%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| ≤ -150	149	93	56	0	62.4%	-159	61.4%	+2.51	1.7%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| -149 to -125	160	90	70	0	56.2%	-138	58.0%	-4.51	-2.8%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| -124 to -105	102	58	44	0	56.9%	-115	53.6%	+6.46	6.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| -104 to +104	24	10	14	0	41.7%	+17	85.7%	-3.97	-16.5%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| +105 to +124	38	19	19	0	50.0%	+112	47.3%	+2.32	6.1%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| +125 to +149 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	+127	44.1%	+1.27	127.0%
Pitcher Outs \| ≤ -150	20	12	8	0	60.0%	-171	63.1%	-1.04	-5.2%
Pitcher Outs \| -149 to -125	27	15	12	0	55.6%	-139	58.1%	-1.14	-4.2%
Pitcher Outs \| -124 to -105	33	15	18	0	45.5%	-115	53.5%	-4.94	-15.0%
Pitcher Outs \| -104 to +104	13	6	7	0	46.2%	+23	81.2%	-0.96	-7.4%
Pitcher Outs \| +105 to +124	22	10	12	0	45.5%	+113	46.9%	-0.78	-3.5%
Pitcher Outs \| +125 to +149	9	3	6	0	33.3%	+133	42.9%	-1.99	-22.1%
Pitcher Walks \| ≤ -150	269	166	103	0	61.7%	-184	64.8%	-12.02	-4.5%
Pitcher Walks \| -149 to -125	95	58	37	0	61.1%	-137	57.9%	+5.32	5.6%
Pitcher Walks \| -124 to -105	42	20	22	0	47.6%	-119	54.4%	-5.27	-12.5%
Pitcher Walks \| +105 to +124 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	+105	48.8%	+1.05	105.0%
Run Line \| ≤ -150	38	24	14	0	63.2%	-156	60.9%	+1.41	3.7%
Run Line \| -149 to -125	77	45	32	0	58.4%	-138	58.0%	+0.68	1.0%
Run Line \| -124 to -105	27	13	14	0	48.1%	-115	53.5%	-2.87	-13.3%
Run Line \| -104 to +104	5	4	1	0	80.0%	+60	62.6%	+2.97	59.4%
Run Line \| +105 to +124	7	3	4	0	42.9%	+112	47.1%	-0.70	-11.6%
Run Line \| +125 to +149 *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+142	41.4%	+1.32	37.7%
Run Line \| ≥ +150 *	4	3	1	0	75.0%	+158	38.8%	+2.96	84.7%
Total \| -124 to -105	51	18	30	3	37.5%	-113	53.0%	-10.79	-24.0%
Total \| -104 to +104	14	8	6	0	57.1%	-44	30.6%	+0.41	3.3%
YRFI \| +105 to +124 *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	+124	44.6%	-1.00	-100.0%
YRFI \| +125 to +149 *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+130	43.4%	-1.72	-43.0%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5)	3091	2059	1024	8	66.8%	-249	71.3%	-69.97	-2.3%
All props combined	2281	1222	1059	0	53.6%	-119	54.3%	-139.36	-6.1%

Group	Bets	W	L	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Pitcher Hits Allowed	474	271	203	57.2%	-111	52.7%	+4.08	0.9%
Batter Total Bases	71	38	33	53.5%	-86	46.3%	-1.02	-1.4%
YRFI	7	3	4	42.9%	+129	43.7%	-2.72	-38.9%
NRFI	6	1	5	16.7%	+125	44.5%	-3.00	-50.0%
Batter Hits	76	48	28	63.2%	-243	70.8%	-8.08	-10.6%
Pitcher Outs	124	61	63	49.2%	-56	35.9%	-10.85	-8.7%
K Prop	592	321	271	54.2%	-119	54.4%	-32.13	-5.4%
Batter H+R+RBI	931	479	452	51.5%	-125	55.6%	-85.64	-9.2%

Codebook & Documentation

Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.

Metric Columns

Column	Description
Bets	Number of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank)
W / L / P	Wins, Losses, Pushes
Win%	Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator
AvgOdds	Mean American odds across all bets in the bucket
BE%	Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; \|odds\|/(\|odds\|+100) for − odds
Net Units	Sum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable
ROI%	Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked.
*	Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise.

Grade Scale

Grade	Score Threshold	Conditions	Recommendation
A	≥ 10 pts	0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradiction	BEST_PLAY
B	≥ 8 pts	0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradiction	GOOD_ADD
C	≥ 4 pts	Including B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAIL	PASS
D	≥ 2 pts	Including Model Edge hard-FAIL override	PASS
F	< 2 pts	Negative or near-zero edge across checks	HARD_FADE

Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.

Final Signal Layer

Field	Description
Model Grade	The model-strength grade before market trust is interpreted for display.
Trust Tier	Market lifecycle stage: trusted, watch, research, or paused.
Final Signal	The user-facing recommendation after combining model grade and trust tier. Examples: Top Pick, Best Play, Strong Watch, Research Lead, Paused Signal.
Promotion Criteria	Evidence gates showing what a market needs before it can move to the next trust stage.

Top Pick remains unchanged: Grade A + 100% book consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw_diff ≥ 1.5. Other final signals use the same badge-style presentation without changing the Top Pick rule.

Market Lifecycle / Trust Stages

Stage	Performance-report interpretation
trusted	Market is allowed to produce normal actionable recommendations. Continue watching recent windows for drawdown.
watch	Market is visible and can be useful, but sample size or recent performance has not fully cleared trusted criteria.
research	Market should be evaluated in settled results, but not treated as actionable until validation clears.
paused	Market is shadow-only. Settled tracker rows are useful for diagnostics, but not for live bet approval.

Use market lifecycle beside grade. A Grade A in a research or paused market is not the same thing as a Grade A in a trusted market.

Diagnostic / Research Components

Component	How to use it in performance review
PitcherAssessment	Explains pitcher prop and batter prop context: hand, K%, innings, pitch-count proxy, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Evaluate held pitcher-outs candidates separately. The goal is to prove when assessment-driven overs/unders should leave research status.
HRR Component Research	Review hit, run, and RBI component quality rather than judging HRR as one composite stat.
Player Context	Review whether home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, workload, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter context explain prop results. Missing split data should stay neutral.
Pre-lineup Hitter Context	K props can use known active-roster hitters before official lineups post: batter handedness and PA-weighted active-roster K% inform opponent context. Confirmed lineups later replace that estimate with exact batting order, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration.
Free Savant Pitch Quality	Replacement for paid Pitcher List PLV. Uses public Statcast/Savant summary and arsenal fields to evaluate pitch quality, whiff/contact profile, and workload context as diagnostics only.
AI Review	Advisory summary only. It can highlight patterns but should not be counted as a model signal.

V2 Framework - Six Checks

Check	Name	What it evaluates
1	Baby Line	Is the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge.
2	Model Edge	Does our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D.
3	Books Agree	Do ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D.
4	Matchup	Context factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history.
5	Role / Injury	Is the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise?
6	Game Script	Total-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment.

Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.

Sizing Values

Sizing	Units Risked	Included in "Sized Only"?
FULL	1.00	Yes
HALF	0.50	Yes
QRTR	0.25	Yes
(blank)	1.00 (implicit)	No — unsized

Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.

Odds Bands

Band	American Odds Range
≤ −150	Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout
−149 to −125	Moderate favorites
−124 to −105	Slight favorites
−104 to +104	Near pick-em
+105 to +124	Slight underdogs
+125 to +149	Moderate underdogs
≥ +150	Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout

Section Descriptions

Section	What it answers
A — Headline Summary	Overall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side.
B — Bet Type	Performance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only.
C — Bet Type × Grade	Within each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays.
D — Odds Band Summary	Performance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices.
E — Grade × Odds Band	Do A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range?
F — Bet Type × Odds Band	Are certain markets only working at certain prices?
H1 — Game Bets vs Props	Side-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only.
H2 — Prop Type Breakdown	Per-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets.
H3 — Prop Type × Grade	Within each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props.

ROI Denominator Rules

Sized bets: denominator = sum of actual sizing units (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25)
Unsized bets: denominator = number of bets × 1.0 (each treated as 1 unit risked)
Mixed buckets (e.g. "All tracked"): unsized bets contribute 1.0 unit each to denominator
Pushes return the risked amount — they contribute 0 to net units and are excluded from Win%

MLB Betting — Performance Report

📊 Interpretive Summary

Section T — ⭐ Top Pick Performance

Section T2 — Top Pick by Bet Type

Section A — Headline Summary

Section B — Bet Type (all tracked)

Section B — Bet Type (sized only)

Section M — Normalized Loss Miss Distance

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (sized only)

Section D — Odds Band Summary

Section E — Grade × Odds Band