4238 settled bets | 104 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns
All tracked (4238 bets): -146.23 units | ROI -3.5%
Sized only (104 bets): +6.30 units | ROI +8.6%
▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets
Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):
Grade A: -0.4% (406 bets)
Grade B: -3.8% (3832 bets)
✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed
Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):
Moneyline: +81.6% ROI | 6 bets | +2.85 units
F5 ML: +19.3% ROI | 28 bets | +4.55 units
F5 Total: +2.1% ROI | 15 bets | +0.32 units
Pitcher Hits Allowed: +1.6% ROI | 421 bets | +6.67 units
Run Line: +0.1% ROI | 147 bets | +0.11 units
Batter Walks: -0.1% ROI | 1105 bets | -1.36 units
Batter Total Bases: -1.2% ROI | 69 bets | -0.86 units
K Prop: -3.5% ROI | 534 bets | -18.77 units
Pitcher Earned Runs: -3.8% ROI | 441 bets | -16.69 units
Pitcher Walks: -4.0% ROI | 333 bets | -13.16 units
Batter Hits: -5.5% ROI | 66 bets | -3.63 units
Batter H+R+RBI: -9.3% ROI | 879 bets | -82.11 units
Pitcher Outs: -9.9% ROI | 118 bets | -11.65 units
Total: -15.4% ROI | 61 bets | -8.23 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
No HR U1.5: -42.7% ROI | 10 bets | -4.27 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
⚠ Red flags:
No HR U1.5: 10 bets, ROI -42.7% — strongly negative
Total: 61 bets, ROI -15.4% — strongly negative
Top Pick = Grade A + 100% book consensus (≥3 books) + raw_diff ≥ 1.5 units. Run backfill_top_picks.py to populate historical rows.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Top Pick | 57 | 34 | 23 | 0 | 59.6% | -127 | 55.9% | +2.33 | 4.1% |
| Grade A (all) | 406 | 231 | 175 | 0 | 56.9% | -123 | 55.2% | -1.60 | -0.4% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Batter H+R+RBI | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | -134 | 57.2% | -3.23 | -64.6% |
| ⭐ Batter Total Bases * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -116 | 53.7% | +0.86 | 86.2% |
| ⭐ K Prop | 50 | 31 | 19 | 0 | 62.0% | -125 | 55.6% | +4.10 | 8.2% |
| ⭐ Pitcher Hits Allowed * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -166 | 62.4% | +0.60 | 60.2% |
Sized only = FULL/HALF/QRTR game bets; All tracked includes unsized props.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All tracked | 4238 | 2526 | 1704 | 8 | 59.7% | -171 | 63.1% | -146.23 | -3.5% |
| Sized only | 104 | 51 | 50 | 3 | 50.5% | -27 | 21.3% | +6.30 | 8.6% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 421 | 242 | 179 | 0 | 57.5% | -110 | 52.4% | +6.67 | 1.6% |
| F5 ML | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 47.8% | +154 | 39.3% | +4.55 | 19.3% |
| Moneyline | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| F5 Total | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 60.0% | -119 | 54.4% | +0.32 | 2.1% |
| Run Line | 147 | 82 | 65 | 0 | 55.8% | -105 | 51.2% | +0.11 | 0.1% |
| Batter Total Bases | 69 | 37 | 32 | 0 | 53.6% | -85 | 46.0% | -0.86 | -1.2% |
| Batter Walks | 1105 | 816 | 289 | 0 | 73.8% | -309 | 75.5% | -1.36 | -0.1% |
| Batter Hits | 66 | 44 | 22 | 0 | 66.7% | -242 | 70.7% | -3.63 | -5.5% |
| No HR U1.5 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 30.0% | -110 | 52.4% | -4.27 | -42.7% |
| Total | 61 | 25 | 33 | 3 | 43.1% | -97 | 49.3% | -8.23 | -15.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | 118 | 57 | 61 | 0 | 48.3% | -51 | 33.8% | -11.65 | -9.9% |
| Pitcher Walks | 333 | 198 | 135 | 0 | 59.5% | -166 | 62.4% | -13.16 | -4.0% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 441 | 250 | 191 | 0 | 56.7% | -140 | 58.4% | -16.69 | -3.8% |
| K Prop | 534 | 295 | 239 | 0 | 55.2% | -119 | 54.4% | -18.77 | -3.5% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | 879 | 451 | 428 | 0 | 51.3% | -124 | 55.5% | -82.11 | -9.3% |
| NRFI * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| YRFI * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run Line | 44 | 27 | 17 | 0 | 61.4% | -49 | 33.1% | +8.39 | 30.0% |
| F5 ML | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% | +161 | 38.4% | +4.34 | 57.9% |
| Moneyline | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Total | 42 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 37.5% | -90 | 47.3% | -9.29 | -26.9% |
Loss-only diagnostic: miss distance divided by the posted line. This is observational and does not change grades.
| Bet Type | Losses | Avg Miss% | Median Miss% | <=15% | <=25% | <=33% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | 428 | 72.6% | 100.0% | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Batter Hits | 22 | 60.6% | 33.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 32 | 93.8% | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Batter Walks | 289 | 126.3% | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F5 Total | 6 | 45.0% | 44.2% | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| K Prop | 239 | 34.9% | 33.3% | 93 | 98 | 114 |
| No HR U1.5 | 7 | 109.5% | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 191 | 69.8% | 60.0% | 3 | 36 | 36 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 179 | 32.3% | 27.3% | 67 | 76 | 112 |
| Pitcher Outs | 61 | 10.7% | 2.9% | 44 | 55 | 57 |
| Pitcher Walks | 135 | 58.8% | 33.3% | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| Run Line | 65 | 209.7% | 166.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 33 | 35.0% | 33.3% | 8 | 13 | 16 |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | A | 114 | 63 | 51 | 0 | 55.3% | -133 | 57.0% | -3.24 | -2.8% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | B | 765 | 388 | 377 | 0 | 50.7% | -123 | 55.2% | -78.86 | -10.3% |
| Batter Hits | B | 66 | 44 | 22 | 0 | 66.7% | -242 | 70.7% | -3.63 | -5.5% |
| Batter Total Bases | B | 69 | 37 | 32 | 0 | 53.6% | -85 | 46.0% | -0.86 | -1.2% |
| Batter Walks | A | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 62.5% | -82 | 45.0% | +0.85 | 10.6% |
| Batter Walks | B | 1097 | 811 | 286 | 0 | 73.9% | -311 | 75.6% | -2.21 | -0.2% |
| F5 ML | B | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 47.8% | +154 | 39.3% | +4.55 | 19.3% |
| F5 Total | B | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 60.0% | -119 | 54.4% | +0.32 | 2.1% |
| K Prop | A | 228 | 130 | 98 | 0 | 57.0% | -129 | 56.3% | -2.04 | -0.9% |
| K Prop | B | 306 | 165 | 141 | 0 | 53.9% | -112 | 52.8% | -16.73 | -5.5% |
| Moneyline | B | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| NRFI | B * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| No HR U1.5 | B | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 30.0% | -110 | 52.4% | -4.27 | -42.7% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | A * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | -127 | 55.9% | -0.21 | -10.6% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | B | 439 | 249 | 190 | 0 | 56.7% | -140 | 58.4% | -16.47 | -3.8% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | A | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | -143 | 58.9% | -1.65 | -32.9% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | B | 416 | 240 | 176 | 0 | 57.7% | -110 | 52.3% | +8.32 | 2.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | A * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | -152 | 60.3% | -1.32 | -44.1% |
| Pitcher Outs | B | 115 | 56 | 59 | 0 | 48.7% | -49 | 32.7% | -10.32 | -9.0% |
| Pitcher Walks | A * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | -165 | 62.3% | +0.37 | 12.4% |
| Pitcher Walks | B | 330 | 196 | 134 | 0 | 59.4% | -166 | 62.4% | -13.53 | -4.1% |
| Run Line | A | 42 | 26 | 16 | 0 | 61.9% | -67 | 40.1% | +5.15 | 15.4% |
| Run Line | B | 105 | 56 | 49 | 0 | 53.3% | -120 | 54.6% | -5.04 | -5.2% |
| Total | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -101 | 50.2% | +0.49 | 99.0% |
| Total | B | 60 | 24 | 33 | 3 | 42.1% | -97 | 49.2% | -8.73 | -16.5% |
| YRFI | B * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F5 ML | B | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% | +161 | 38.4% | +4.34 | 57.9% |
| Moneyline | B | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Run Line | A | 28 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 71.4% | -42 | 29.6% | +8.85 | 45.4% |
| Run Line | B | 16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.8% | -63 | 38.5% | -0.46 | -5.4% |
| Total | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -101 | 50.2% | +0.49 | 99.0% |
| Total | B | 41 | 14 | 25 | 2 | 35.9% | -90 | 47.2% | -9.78 | -28.8% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ -150 | 2007 | 1378 | 629 | 0 | 68.7% | -252 | 71.6% | -22.39 | -1.1% |
| -149 to -125 | 1174 | 645 | 529 | 0 | 54.9% | -137 | 57.8% | -56.99 | -4.9% |
| -124 to -105 | 738 | 356 | 379 | 3 | 48.4% | -117 | 53.8% | -70.75 | -9.7% |
| -104 to +104 | 88 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 50.0% | -3 | 2.6% | -1.64 | -1.9% |
| +105 to +124 | 138 | 62 | 76 | 0 | 44.9% | +114 | 46.8% | -5.52 | -4.1% |
| +125 to +149 | 56 | 25 | 30 | 1 | 45.5% | +134 | 42.8% | +3.59 | 6.7% |
| ≥ +150 | 32 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 46.4% | +184 | 35.3% | +7.47 | 27.2% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | ≤ -150 | 95 | 57 | 38 | 0 | 60.0% | -158 | 61.3% | -1.94 | -2.0% |
| A | -149 to -125 | 209 | 117 | 92 | 0 | 56.0% | -136 | 57.6% | -6.54 | -3.2% |
| A | -124 to -105 | 79 | 43 | 36 | 0 | 54.4% | -118 | 54.1% | -0.46 | -0.6% |
| A | -104 to +104 * | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0% | +51 | 66.1% | +1.54 | 43.9% |
| A | +105 to +124 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 50.0% | +117 | 46.1% | +0.70 | 8.8% |
| A | +125 to +149 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 71.4% | +134 | 42.7% | +4.73 | 67.6% |
| A | ≥ +150 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +180 | 35.8% | +0.38 | 10.7% |
| B | ≤ -150 | 1912 | 1321 | 591 | 0 | 69.1% | -257 | 72.0% | -20.45 | -1.1% |
| B | -149 to -125 | 965 | 528 | 437 | 0 | 54.7% | -137 | 57.8% | -50.45 | -5.2% |
| B | -124 to -105 | 659 | 313 | 343 | 3 | 47.7% | -116 | 53.8% | -70.29 | -10.8% |
| B | -104 to +104 | 84 | 41 | 43 | 0 | 48.8% | -5 | 5.0% | -3.17 | -3.8% |
| B | +105 to +124 | 130 | 58 | 72 | 0 | 44.6% | +114 | 46.8% | -6.22 | -4.9% |
| B | +125 to +149 | 49 | 20 | 28 | 1 | 41.7% | +134 | 42.8% | -1.14 | -2.4% |
| B | ≥ +150 | 28 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 45.8% | +184 | 35.2% | +7.09 | 29.6% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | ≤ -150 | 140 | 77 | 63 | 0 | 55.0% | -158 | 61.2% | -14.17 | -10.1% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -149 to -125 | 429 | 225 | 204 | 0 | 52.4% | -136 | 57.6% | -37.65 | -8.8% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -124 to -105 | 266 | 130 | 136 | 0 | 48.9% | -118 | 54.1% | -26.31 | -9.9% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -104 to +104 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | -31 | 23.7% | -2.10 | -10.5% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | +105 to +124 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 41.2% | +115 | 46.4% | -1.91 | -11.2% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | +125 to +149 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9% | +131 | 43.2% | +0.02 | 0.3% |
| Batter Hits | ≤ -150 | 66 | 44 | 22 | 0 | 66.7% | -242 | 70.7% | -3.63 | -5.5% |
| Batter Total Bases | ≤ -150 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 55.6% | -185 | 64.9% | -2.55 | -14.2% |
| Batter Total Bases | -149 to -125 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 63.2% | -133 | 57.2% | +1.90 | 10.0% |
| Batter Total Bases | -124 to -105 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 41.2% | -118 | 54.1% | -4.08 | -24.0% |
| Batter Total Bases | +105 to +124 * | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 25.0% | +118 | 45.9% | -1.76 | -44.0% |
| Batter Total Bases | +125 to +149 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 60.0% | +135 | 42.6% | +3.99 | 39.9% |
| Batter Total Bases | ≥ +150 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +163 | 38.0% | +1.63 | 163.0% |
| Batter Walks | ≤ -150 | 1006 | 763 | 243 | 0 | 75.8% | -334 | 76.9% | -1.53 | -0.2% |
| Batter Walks | -149 to -125 | 43 | 24 | 19 | 0 | 55.8% | -135 | 57.5% | -1.12 | -2.6% |
| Batter Walks | -124 to -105 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 69.0% | -117 | 53.9% | +8.11 | 28.0% |
| Batter Walks | -104 to +104 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | +20 | 83.5% | -1.00 | -20.0% |
| Batter Walks | +105 to +124 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40.0% | +112 | 47.3% | -1.57 | -15.7% |
| Batter Walks | +125 to +149 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | +132 | 43.2% | -2.73 | -54.6% |
| Batter Walks | ≥ +150 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 28.6% | +208 | 32.5% | -1.53 | -21.9% |
| F5 ML | +105 to +124 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +123 | 44.8% | +0.32 | 10.7% |
| F5 ML | +125 to +149 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 55.6% | +140 | 41.6% | +2.67 | 33.4% |
| F5 ML | ≥ +150 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 40.0% | +173 | 36.7% | +1.55 | 12.4% |
| F5 Total | ≤ -150 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -154 | 60.6% | +0.65 | 64.9% |
| F5 Total | -149 to -125 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 87.5% | -145 | 59.2% | +3.83 | 47.8% |
| F5 Total | -124 to -105 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | -117 | 54.0% | -3.15 | -63.1% |
| F5 Total | +105 to +124 * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | +114 | 46.7% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| K Prop | ≤ -150 | 155 | 101 | 54 | 0 | 65.2% | -158 | 61.2% | +10.18 | 6.6% |
| K Prop | -149 to -125 | 232 | 127 | 105 | 0 | 54.7% | -138 | 57.9% | -12.54 | -5.4% |
| K Prop | -124 to -105 | 103 | 46 | 57 | 0 | 44.7% | -117 | 53.9% | -17.65 | -17.1% |
| K Prop | -104 to +104 * | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -0 | 0.2% | +3.99 | 99.8% |
| K Prop | +105 to +124 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 0 | 43.3% | +116 | 46.2% | -1.78 | -5.9% |
| K Prop | +125 to +149 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40.0% | +127 | 44.0% | -0.96 | -9.6% |
| Moneyline | ≥ +150 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| No HR U1.5 | -124 to -105 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 30.0% | -110 | 52.4% | -4.27 | -42.7% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | ≤ -150 | 225 | 135 | 90 | 0 | 60.0% | -162 | 61.9% | -6.82 | -3.0% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -149 to -125 | 131 | 72 | 59 | 0 | 55.0% | -138 | 57.9% | -6.87 | -5.2% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -124 to -105 | 71 | 36 | 35 | 0 | 50.7% | -116 | 53.6% | -3.63 | -5.1% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -104 to +104 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 37.5% | +25 | 79.9% | -1.98 | -24.7% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | +105 to +124 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 66.7% | +113 | 46.9% | +2.61 | 43.5% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ≤ -150 | 125 | 80 | 45 | 0 | 64.0% | -159 | 61.4% | +5.36 | 4.3% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -149 to -125 | 141 | 80 | 61 | 0 | 56.7% | -138 | 58.0% | -2.76 | -2.0% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -124 to -105 | 97 | 55 | 42 | 0 | 56.7% | -115 | 53.6% | +5.78 | 6.0% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -104 to +104 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 42.9% | +5 | 95.5% | -2.98 | -14.2% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | +105 to +124 | 36 | 17 | 19 | 0 | 47.2% | +111 | 47.3% | -0.01 | -0.0% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | +125 to +149 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +127 | 44.1% | +1.27 | 127.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | ≤ -150 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 62.5% | -171 | 63.1% | -0.15 | -0.9% |
| Pitcher Outs | -149 to -125 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 0 | 55.6% | -139 | 58.1% | -1.14 | -4.2% |
| Pitcher Outs | -124 to -105 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 41.9% | -115 | 53.4% | -6.63 | -21.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | -104 to +104 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 46.2% | +23 | 81.2% | -0.96 | -7.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | +105 to +124 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 45.5% | +113 | 46.9% | -0.78 | -3.5% |
| Pitcher Outs | +125 to +149 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 33.3% | +133 | 42.9% | -1.99 | -22.1% |
| Pitcher Walks | ≤ -150 | 223 | 138 | 85 | 0 | 61.9% | -184 | 64.8% | -8.93 | -4.0% |
| Pitcher Walks | -149 to -125 | 75 | 44 | 31 | 0 | 58.7% | -137 | 57.9% | +1.15 | 1.5% |
| Pitcher Walks | -124 to -105 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 0 | 44.1% | -119 | 54.4% | -6.42 | -18.9% |
| Pitcher Walks | +105 to +124 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +105 | 48.8% | +1.05 | 105.0% |
| Run Line | ≤ -150 | 32 | 19 | 13 | 0 | 59.4% | -156 | 60.9% | -0.80 | -2.5% |
| Run Line | -149 to -125 | 69 | 39 | 30 | 0 | 56.5% | -138 | 58.0% | -1.78 | -2.9% |
| Run Line | -124 to -105 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 48.1% | -115 | 53.5% | -2.87 | -13.3% |
| Run Line | -104 to +104 * | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0% | +50 | 66.8% | +1.97 | 49.3% |
| Run Line | +105 to +124 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9% | +112 | 47.1% | -0.70 | -11.6% |
| Run Line | +125 to +149 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +142 | 41.4% | +1.32 | 37.7% |
| Run Line | ≥ +150 * | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0% | +158 | 38.8% | +2.96 | 84.7% |
| Total | -124 to -105 | 48 | 17 | 28 | 3 | 37.8% | -113 | 53.0% | -9.64 | -23.0% |
| Total | -104 to +104 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 61.5% | -40 | 28.3% | +1.41 | 12.2% |
Props are always unsized. This section is unaffected by --sized-only.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5) | 2146 | 1397 | 741 | 8 | 65.3% | -222 | 69.0% | -35.88 | -1.7% |
| All props combined | 2092 | 1129 | 963 | 0 | 54.0% | -118 | 54.2% | -110.34 | -5.3% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 421 | 242 | 179 | 0 | 57.5% | -110 | 52.4% | +6.67 | 1.6% |
| Batter Total Bases | 69 | 37 | 32 | 0 | 53.6% | -85 | 46.0% | -0.86 | -1.2% |
| Batter Hits | 66 | 44 | 22 | 0 | 66.7% | -242 | 70.7% | -3.63 | -5.5% |
| Pitcher Outs | 118 | 57 | 61 | 0 | 48.3% | -51 | 33.8% | -11.65 | -9.9% |
| K Prop | 534 | 295 | 239 | 0 | 55.2% | -119 | 54.4% | -18.77 | -3.5% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | 879 | 451 | 428 | 0 | 51.3% | -124 | 55.5% | -82.11 | -9.3% |
| NRFI * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| YRFI * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
Grades only populate from the run that fixed the tracker bug onward.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | A | 114 | 63 | 51 | 0 | 55.3% | -133 | 57.0% | -3.24 | -2.8% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | B | 765 | 388 | 377 | 0 | 50.7% | -123 | 55.2% | -78.86 | -10.3% |
| Batter Hits | B | 66 | 44 | 22 | 0 | 66.7% | -242 | 70.7% | -3.63 | -5.5% |
| Batter Total Bases | B | 69 | 37 | 32 | 0 | 53.6% | -85 | 46.0% | -0.86 | -1.2% |
| K Prop | A | 228 | 130 | 98 | 0 | 57.0% | -129 | 56.3% | -2.04 | -0.9% |
| K Prop | B | 306 | 165 | 141 | 0 | 53.9% | -112 | 52.8% | -16.73 | -5.5% |
| NRFI | B * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | A | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | -143 | 58.9% | -1.65 | -32.9% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | B | 416 | 240 | 176 | 0 | 57.7% | -110 | 52.3% | +8.32 | 2.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | A * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | -152 | 60.3% | -1.32 | -44.1% |
| Pitcher Outs | B | 115 | 56 | 59 | 0 | 48.7% | -49 | 32.7% | -10.32 | -9.0% |
| YRFI | B * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
| Bets | Number of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank) |
| W / L / P | Wins, Losses, Pushes |
| Win% | Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator |
| AvgOdds | Mean American odds across all bets in the bucket |
| BE% | Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; |odds|/(|odds|+100) for − odds |
| Net Units | Sum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable |
| ROI% | Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked. |
| * | Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise. |
| Grade | Score Threshold | Conditions | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | ≥ 10 pts | 0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradiction | BEST_PLAY |
| B | ≥ 8 pts | 0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradiction | GOOD_ADD |
| C | ≥ 4 pts | Including B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAIL | PASS |
| D | ≥ 2 pts | Including Model Edge hard-FAIL override | PASS |
| F | < 2 pts | Negative or near-zero edge across checks | HARD_FADE |
Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| Model Grade | The model-strength grade before market trust is interpreted for display. |
| Trust Tier | Market lifecycle stage: trusted, watch, research, or paused. |
| Final Signal | The user-facing recommendation after combining model grade and trust tier. Examples: Top Pick, Best Play, Strong Watch, Research Lead, Paused Signal. |
| Promotion Criteria | Evidence gates showing what a market needs before it can move to the next trust stage. |
Top Pick remains unchanged: Grade A + 100% book consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw_diff ≥ 1.5. Other final signals use the same badge-style presentation without changing the Top Pick rule.
| Stage | Performance-report interpretation |
|---|---|
| trusted | Market is allowed to produce normal actionable recommendations. Continue watching recent windows for drawdown. |
| watch | Market is visible and can be useful, but sample size or recent performance has not fully cleared trusted criteria. |
| research | Market should be evaluated in settled results, but not treated as actionable until validation clears. |
| paused | Market is shadow-only. Settled tracker rows are useful for diagnostics, but not for live bet approval. |
Use market lifecycle beside grade. A Grade A in a research or paused market is not the same thing as a Grade A in a trusted market.
| Component | How to use it in performance review |
|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Explains pitcher prop and batter prop context: hand, K%, innings, pitch-count proxy, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Evaluate held pitcher-outs candidates separately. The goal is to prove when assessment-driven overs/unders should leave research status. |
| HRR Component Research | Review hit, run, and RBI component quality rather than judging HRR as one composite stat. |
| Player Context | Review whether home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, workload, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter context explain prop results. Missing split data should stay neutral. |
| Pre-lineup Hitter Context | K props can use known active-roster hitters before official lineups post: batter handedness and PA-weighted active-roster K% inform opponent context. Confirmed lineups later replace that estimate with exact batting order, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration. |
| Free Savant Pitch Quality | Replacement for paid Pitcher List PLV. Uses public Statcast/Savant summary and arsenal fields to evaluate pitch quality, whiff/contact profile, and workload context as diagnostics only. |
| AI Review | Advisory summary only. It can highlight patterns but should not be counted as a model signal. |
| Check | Name | What it evaluates |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Is the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge. |
| 2 | Model Edge | Does our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D. |
| 3 | Books Agree | Do ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D. |
| 4 | Matchup | Context factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history. |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Is the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise? |
| 6 | Game Script | Total-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment. |
Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.
| Sizing | Units Risked | Included in "Sized Only"? |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | 1.00 | Yes |
| HALF | 0.50 | Yes |
| QRTR | 0.25 | Yes |
| (blank) | 1.00 (implicit) | No — unsized |
Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.
| Band | American Odds Range |
|---|---|
| ≤ −150 | Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout |
| −149 to −125 | Moderate favorites |
| −124 to −105 | Slight favorites |
| −104 to +104 | Near pick-em |
| +105 to +124 | Slight underdogs |
| +125 to +149 | Moderate underdogs |
| ≥ +150 | Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout |
| Section | What it answers |
|---|---|
| A — Headline Summary | Overall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side. |
| B — Bet Type | Performance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only. |
| C — Bet Type × Grade | Within each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays. |
| D — Odds Band Summary | Performance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices. |
| E — Grade × Odds Band | Do A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range? |
| F — Bet Type × Odds Band | Are certain markets only working at certain prices? |
| H1 — Game Bets vs Props | Side-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only. |
| H2 — Prop Type Breakdown | Per-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets. |
| H3 — Prop Type × Grade | Within each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props. |