2303 settled bets | 104 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns
All tracked (2303 bets): -124.26 units | ROI -5.5%
Sized only (104 bets): +6.30 units | ROI +8.6%
▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets
Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):
Grade A: -3.0% (275 bets)
Grade B: -5.8% (2028 bets)
✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed
Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):
Moneyline: +81.6% ROI | 6 bets | +2.85 units
F5 ML: +19.3% ROI | 28 bets | +4.55 units
Pitcher Walks: +7.5% ROI | 66 bets | +4.98 units
Pitcher Earned Runs: +6.3% ROI | 80 bets | +5.02 units
Pitcher Hits Allowed: +3.7% ROI | 204 bets | +7.51 units
Batter Total Bases: +0.6% ROI | 64 bets | +0.39 units
Batter Hits: -1.9% ROI | 52 bets | -0.99 units
Run Line: -2.7% ROI | 133 bets | -3.21 units
Batter Walks: -3.2% ROI | 417 bets | -13.22 units
F5 Total: -4.4% ROI | 7 bets | -0.30 units
K Prop: -5.6% ROI | 310 bets | -17.26 units
Batter H+R+RBI: -11.1% ROI | 784 bets | -86.67 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
Pitcher Outs: -14.0% ROI | 85 bets | -11.94 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
Total: -23.7% ROI | 53 bets | -10.78 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
No HR U1.5: -57.6% ROI | 9 bets | -5.18 units
⚠ Red flags:
No HR U1.5: 9 bets, ROI -57.6% — strongly negative
Total: 53 bets, ROI -23.7% — strongly negative
Top Pick = Grade A + 100% book consensus (≥3 books) + raw_diff ≥ 1.5 units. Run backfill_top_picks.py to populate historical rows.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Top Pick | 29 | 17 | 12 | 0 | 58.6% | -137 | 57.7% | +0.28 | 1.0% |
| Grade A (all) | 275 | 153 | 122 | 0 | 55.6% | -125 | 55.6% | -7.96 | -3.0% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Batter H+R+RBI | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | -134 | 57.2% | -3.23 | -64.6% |
| ⭐ Batter Total Bases * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -116 | 53.7% | +0.86 | 86.2% |
| ⭐ K Prop | 22 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 63.6% | -137 | 57.8% | +2.05 | 9.3% |
| ⭐ Pitcher Hits Allowed * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -166 | 62.4% | +0.60 | 60.2% |
Sized only = FULL/HALF/QRTR game bets; All tracked includes unsized props.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All tracked | 2303 | 1285 | 1011 | 7 | 56.0% | -142 | 58.6% | -124.26 | -5.5% |
| Sized only | 104 | 51 | 50 | 3 | 50.5% | -27 | 21.3% | +6.30 | 8.6% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 204 | 118 | 86 | 0 | 57.8% | -99 | 49.8% | +7.51 | 3.7% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 80 | 49 | 31 | 0 | 61.3% | -128 | 56.0% | +5.02 | 6.3% |
| Pitcher Walks | 66 | 43 | 23 | 0 | 65.2% | -157 | 61.2% | +4.98 | 7.5% |
| F5 ML | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 47.8% | +154 | 39.3% | +4.55 | 19.3% |
| Moneyline | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Batter Total Bases | 64 | 35 | 29 | 0 | 54.7% | -86 | 46.4% | +0.39 | 0.6% |
| F5 Total | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 57.1% | -103 | 50.7% | -0.30 | -4.4% |
| Batter Hits | 52 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 69.2% | -241 | 70.7% | -0.99 | -1.9% |
| Run Line | 133 | 72 | 61 | 0 | 54.1% | -102 | 50.4% | -3.21 | -2.7% |
| No HR U1.5 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22.2% | -110 | 52.4% | -5.18 | -57.6% |
| Total | 53 | 20 | 31 | 2 | 39.2% | -95 | 48.7% | -10.78 | -23.7% |
| Pitcher Outs | 85 | 38 | 47 | 0 | 44.7% | -26 | 20.9% | -11.94 | -14.0% |
| Batter Walks | 417 | 289 | 128 | 0 | 69.3% | -277 | 73.4% | -13.22 | -3.2% |
| K Prop | 310 | 168 | 142 | 0 | 54.2% | -123 | 55.1% | -17.26 | -5.6% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | 784 | 394 | 390 | 0 | 50.3% | -123 | 55.2% | -86.67 | -11.1% |
| NRFI * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| YRFI * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run Line | 44 | 27 | 17 | 0 | 61.4% | -49 | 33.1% | +8.39 | 30.0% |
| F5 ML | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% | +161 | 38.4% | +4.34 | 57.9% |
| Moneyline | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Total | 42 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 37.5% | -90 | 47.3% | -9.29 | -26.9% |
Loss-only diagnostic: miss distance divided by the posted line. This is observational and does not change grades.
| Bet Type | Losses | Avg Miss% | Median Miss% | <=15% | <=25% | <=33% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | 390 | 72.6% | 100.0% | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Batter Hits | 16 | 62.5% | 33.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 29 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Batter Walks | 128 | 115.6% | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F5 Total | 3 | 48.0% | 45.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| K Prop | 142 | 32.4% | 33.3% | 56 | 60 | 70 |
| No HR U1.5 | 7 | 109.5% | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 31 | 70.0% | 60.0% | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 86 | 34.0% | 27.3% | 27 | 32 | 49 |
| Pitcher Outs | 47 | 11.0% | 2.9% | 33 | 44 | 44 |
| Pitcher Walks | 23 | 53.6% | 33.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Run Line | 61 | 221.3% | 233.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 31 | 33.9% | 30.4% | 8 | 13 | 16 |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | A | 97 | 51 | 46 | 0 | 52.6% | -135 | 57.4% | -7.75 | -8.0% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | B | 687 | 343 | 344 | 0 | 49.9% | -122 | 54.9% | -78.92 | -11.5% |
| Batter Hits | B | 52 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 69.2% | -241 | 70.7% | -0.99 | -1.9% |
| Batter Total Bases | B | 64 | 35 | 29 | 0 | 54.7% | -86 | 46.4% | +0.39 | 0.6% |
| Batter Walks | A * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | +67 | 59.9% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| Batter Walks | B | 415 | 289 | 126 | 0 | 69.6% | -278 | 73.6% | -11.22 | -2.7% |
| F5 ML | B | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 47.8% | +154 | 39.3% | +4.55 | 19.3% |
| F5 Total | B | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 57.1% | -103 | 50.7% | -0.30 | -4.4% |
| K Prop | A | 125 | 72 | 53 | 0 | 57.6% | -138 | 58.0% | -0.83 | -0.7% |
| K Prop | B | 185 | 96 | 89 | 0 | 51.9% | -112 | 52.9% | -16.43 | -8.9% |
| Moneyline | B | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| NRFI | B * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| No HR U1.5 | B | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22.2% | -110 | 52.4% | -5.18 | -57.6% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | A * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -127 | 55.9% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | B | 79 | 49 | 30 | 0 | 62.0% | -128 | 56.0% | +6.02 | 7.6% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | A * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | -154 | 60.6% | -1.40 | -46.6% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | B | 201 | 117 | 84 | 0 | 58.2% | -98 | 49.6% | +8.91 | 4.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | A * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | -154 | 60.6% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | B | 83 | 38 | 45 | 0 | 45.8% | -23 | 18.9% | -9.94 | -12.0% |
| Pitcher Walks | A * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | -165 | 62.3% | +0.37 | 12.4% |
| Pitcher Walks | B | 63 | 41 | 22 | 0 | 65.1% | -157 | 61.1% | +4.61 | 7.3% |
| Run Line | A | 41 | 26 | 15 | 0 | 63.4% | -66 | 39.6% | +6.15 | 18.9% |
| Run Line | B | 92 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 50.0% | -118 | 54.0% | -9.36 | -11.1% |
| Total | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -101 | 50.2% | +0.49 | 99.0% |
| Total | B | 52 | 19 | 31 | 2 | 38.0% | -95 | 48.6% | -11.28 | -25.1% |
| YRFI | B * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F5 ML | B | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% | +161 | 38.4% | +4.34 | 57.9% |
| Moneyline | B | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Run Line | A | 28 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 71.4% | -42 | 29.6% | +8.85 | 45.4% |
| Run Line | B | 16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.8% | -63 | 38.5% | -0.46 | -5.4% |
| Total | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -101 | 50.2% | +0.49 | 99.0% |
| Total | B | 41 | 14 | 25 | 2 | 35.9% | -90 | 47.2% | -9.78 | -28.8% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ -150 | 777 | 523 | 254 | 0 | 67.3% | -241 | 70.7% | -12.27 | -1.6% |
| -149 to -125 | 741 | 394 | 347 | 0 | 53.2% | -137 | 57.7% | -57.84 | -7.9% |
| -124 to -105 | 526 | 246 | 278 | 2 | 46.9% | -117 | 53.9% | -64.74 | -12.6% |
| -104 to +104 | 69 | 38 | 31 | 0 | 55.1% | -8 | 7.3% | +5.33 | 7.9% |
| +105 to +124 | 103 | 46 | 57 | 0 | 44.7% | +114 | 46.7% | -4.89 | -4.8% |
| +125 to +149 | 50 | 22 | 27 | 1 | 44.9% | +135 | 42.6% | +2.68 | 5.7% |
| ≥ +150 | 32 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 46.4% | +184 | 35.3% | +7.47 | 27.2% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | ≤ -150 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 0 | 57.7% | -159 | 61.3% | -2.94 | -5.7% |
| A | -149 to -125 | 149 | 84 | 65 | 0 | 56.4% | -136 | 57.7% | -3.90 | -2.7% |
| A | -124 to -105 | 62 | 32 | 30 | 0 | 51.6% | -118 | 54.2% | -3.94 | -6.7% |
| A | -104 to +104 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +34 | 74.8% | +0.49 | 19.8% |
| A | +105 to +124 * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | +116 | 46.3% | +0.13 | 6.5% |
| A | +125 to +149 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +141 | 41.5% | +1.82 | 60.7% |
| A | ≥ +150 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +180 | 35.8% | +0.38 | 10.7% |
| B | ≤ -150 | 725 | 493 | 232 | 0 | 68.0% | -247 | 71.2% | -9.33 | -1.3% |
| B | -149 to -125 | 592 | 310 | 282 | 0 | 52.4% | -137 | 57.7% | -53.94 | -9.2% |
| B | -124 to -105 | 464 | 214 | 248 | 2 | 46.3% | -116 | 53.8% | -60.79 | -13.3% |
| B | -104 to +104 | 66 | 36 | 30 | 0 | 54.5% | -10 | 8.9% | +4.83 | 7.4% |
| B | +105 to +124 | 101 | 45 | 56 | 0 | 44.6% | +114 | 46.7% | -5.02 | -5.1% |
| B | +125 to +149 | 47 | 20 | 26 | 1 | 43.5% | +134 | 42.7% | +0.87 | 1.9% |
| B | ≥ +150 | 28 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 45.8% | +184 | 35.2% | +7.09 | 29.6% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | ≤ -150 | 119 | 68 | 51 | 0 | 57.1% | -158 | 61.3% | -7.93 | -6.7% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -149 to -125 | 373 | 186 | 187 | 0 | 49.9% | -136 | 57.5% | -49.39 | -13.2% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -124 to -105 | 249 | 122 | 127 | 0 | 49.0% | -118 | 54.1% | -23.97 | -9.6% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -104 to +104 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | -31 | 23.7% | -2.10 | -10.5% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | +105 to +124 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 41.2% | +115 | 46.4% | -1.91 | -11.2% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | +125 to +149 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 33.3% | +130 | 43.5% | -1.38 | -23.0% |
| Batter Hits | ≤ -150 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 69.2% | -241 | 70.7% | -0.99 | -1.9% |
| Batter Total Bases | ≤ -150 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 55.6% | -185 | 64.9% | -2.55 | -14.2% |
| Batter Total Bases | -149 to -125 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 66.7% | -134 | 57.2% | +2.90 | 16.1% |
| Batter Total Bases | -124 to -105 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 35.7% | -119 | 54.4% | -4.83 | -34.5% |
| Batter Total Bases | +105 to +124 * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | +120 | 45.5% | -0.76 | -25.3% |
| Batter Total Bases | +125 to +149 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 60.0% | +135 | 42.6% | +3.99 | 39.9% |
| Batter Total Bases | ≥ +150 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +163 | 38.0% | +1.63 | 163.0% |
| Batter Walks | ≤ -150 | 340 | 251 | 89 | 0 | 73.8% | -330 | 76.8% | -8.56 | -2.5% |
| Batter Walks | -149 to -125 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 0 | 51.6% | -135 | 57.4% | -2.93 | -9.5% |
| Batter Walks | -124 to -105 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 65.0% | -117 | 53.9% | +4.10 | 20.5% |
| Batter Walks | -104 to +104 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +50 | 66.7% | +0.00 | 0.0% |
| Batter Walks | +105 to +124 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40.0% | +112 | 47.3% | -1.57 | -15.7% |
| Batter Walks | +125 to +149 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | +132 | 43.2% | -2.73 | -54.6% |
| Batter Walks | ≥ +150 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 28.6% | +208 | 32.5% | -1.53 | -21.9% |
| F5 ML | +105 to +124 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +123 | 44.8% | +0.32 | 10.7% |
| F5 ML | +125 to +149 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 55.6% | +140 | 41.6% | +2.67 | 33.4% |
| F5 ML | ≥ +150 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 40.0% | +173 | 36.7% | +1.55 | 12.4% |
| F5 Total | ≤ -150 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -154 | 60.6% | +0.65 | 64.9% |
| F5 Total | -149 to -125 * | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -147 | 59.5% | +2.05 | 68.2% |
| F5 Total | -124 to -105 * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | -120 | 54.5% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| F5 Total | +105 to +124 * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | +114 | 46.7% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| K Prop | ≤ -150 | 77 | 48 | 29 | 0 | 62.3% | -157 | 61.0% | +1.66 | 2.2% |
| K Prop | -149 to -125 | 143 | 84 | 59 | 0 | 58.7% | -138 | 57.9% | +2.30 | 1.6% |
| K Prop | -124 to -105 | 71 | 28 | 43 | 0 | 39.4% | -118 | 54.1% | -19.20 | -27.0% |
| K Prop | -104 to +104 * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -2 | 1.5% | +1.97 | 98.6% |
| K Prop | +105 to +124 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 33.3% | +115 | 46.6% | -3.53 | -29.4% |
| K Prop | +125 to +149 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | +128 | 43.8% | -0.47 | -9.4% |
| Moneyline | ≥ +150 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| No HR U1.5 | -124 to -105 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22.2% | -110 | 52.4% | -5.18 | -57.6% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | ≤ -150 | 34 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 73.5% | -162 | 61.9% | +6.33 | 18.6% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -149 to -125 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 40.0% | -137 | 57.9% | -7.82 | -31.3% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -124 to -105 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 57.1% | -114 | 53.2% | +0.96 | 6.9% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -104 to +104 * | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0% | -0 | 0.2% | +2.02 | 50.5% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | +105 to +124 * | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +117 | 46.0% | +3.52 | 117.3% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ≤ -150 | 58 | 36 | 22 | 0 | 62.1% | -161 | 61.6% | +0.34 | 0.6% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -149 to -125 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 0 | 59.3% | -138 | 58.0% | +1.30 | 2.4% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -124 to -105 | 55 | 31 | 24 | 0 | 56.4% | -115 | 53.4% | +3.06 | 5.6% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -104 to +104 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 54.5% | -9 | 8.6% | +0.97 | 8.8% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | +105 to +124 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 48.0% | +112 | 47.1% | +0.56 | 2.2% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | +125 to +149 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +127 | 44.1% | +1.27 | 127.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | ≤ -150 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 55.6% | -170 | 63.0% | -1.05 | -11.7% |
| Pitcher Outs | -149 to -125 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.0% | -139 | 58.2% | -2.16 | -13.5% |
| Pitcher Outs | -124 to -105 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 36.8% | -114 | 53.3% | -5.90 | -31.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | -104 to +104 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 50.0% | +17 | 85.7% | +0.04 | 0.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | +105 to +124 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | +114 | 46.7% | -0.88 | -4.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | +125 to +149 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 33.3% | +133 | 42.9% | -1.99 | -22.1% |
| Pitcher Walks | ≤ -150 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 0 | 63.4% | -178 | 64.1% | -0.10 | -0.2% |
| Pitcher Walks | -149 to -125 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 64.7% | -139 | 58.1% | +1.89 | 11.1% |
| Pitcher Walks | -124 to -105 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 71.4% | -118 | 54.1% | +2.13 | 30.5% |
| Pitcher Walks | +105 to +124 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +105 | 48.8% | +1.05 | 105.0% |
| Run Line | ≤ -150 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 60.7% | -156 | 60.9% | -0.09 | -0.3% |
| Run Line | -149 to -125 | 61 | 32 | 29 | 0 | 52.5% | -139 | 58.1% | -5.99 | -11.4% |
| Run Line | -124 to -105 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 48.0% | -115 | 53.4% | -2.70 | -13.8% |
| Run Line | -104 to +104 * | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0% | +50 | 66.8% | +1.97 | 49.3% |
| Run Line | +105 to +124 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9% | +112 | 47.1% | -0.70 | -11.6% |
| Run Line | +125 to +149 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +142 | 41.4% | +1.32 | 37.7% |
| Run Line | ≥ +150 * | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0% | +158 | 38.8% | +2.96 | 84.7% |
| Total | -124 to -105 | 41 | 13 | 26 | 2 | 33.3% | -112 | 52.9% | -11.23 | -32.1% |
| Total | -104 to +104 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 58.3% | -34 | 25.5% | +0.44 | 4.2% |
Props are always unsized. This section is unaffected by --sized-only.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5) | 799 | 493 | 299 | 7 | 62.2% | -189 | 65.3% | -15.30 | -2.0% |
| All props combined | 1504 | 792 | 712 | 0 | 52.7% | -117 | 53.9% | -108.96 | -7.2% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 204 | 118 | 86 | 0 | 57.8% | -99 | 49.8% | +7.51 | 3.7% |
| Batter Total Bases | 64 | 35 | 29 | 0 | 54.7% | -86 | 46.4% | +0.39 | 0.6% |
| Batter Hits | 52 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 69.2% | -241 | 70.7% | -0.99 | -1.9% |
| Pitcher Outs | 85 | 38 | 47 | 0 | 44.7% | -26 | 20.9% | -11.94 | -14.0% |
| K Prop | 310 | 168 | 142 | 0 | 54.2% | -123 | 55.1% | -17.26 | -5.6% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | 784 | 394 | 390 | 0 | 50.3% | -123 | 55.2% | -86.67 | -11.1% |
| NRFI * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| YRFI * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
Grades only populate from the run that fixed the tracker bug onward.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | A | 97 | 51 | 46 | 0 | 52.6% | -135 | 57.4% | -7.75 | -8.0% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | B | 687 | 343 | 344 | 0 | 49.9% | -122 | 54.9% | -78.92 | -11.5% |
| Batter Hits | B | 52 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 69.2% | -241 | 70.7% | -0.99 | -1.9% |
| Batter Total Bases | B | 64 | 35 | 29 | 0 | 54.7% | -86 | 46.4% | +0.39 | 0.6% |
| K Prop | A | 125 | 72 | 53 | 0 | 57.6% | -138 | 58.0% | -0.83 | -0.7% |
| K Prop | B | 185 | 96 | 89 | 0 | 51.9% | -112 | 52.9% | -16.43 | -8.9% |
| NRFI | B * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | A * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | -154 | 60.6% | -1.40 | -46.6% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | B | 201 | 117 | 84 | 0 | 58.2% | -98 | 49.6% | +8.91 | 4.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | A * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | -154 | 60.6% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | B | 83 | 38 | 45 | 0 | 45.8% | -23 | 18.9% | -9.94 | -12.0% |
| YRFI | B * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
| Bets | Number of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank) |
| W / L / P | Wins, Losses, Pushes |
| Win% | Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator |
| AvgOdds | Mean American odds across all bets in the bucket |
| BE% | Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; |odds|/(|odds|+100) for − odds |
| Net Units | Sum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable |
| ROI% | Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked. |
| * | Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise. |
| Grade | Score Threshold | Conditions | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | ≥ 10 pts | 0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradiction | BEST_PLAY |
| B | ≥ 8 pts | 0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradiction | GOOD_ADD |
| C | ≥ 4 pts | Including B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAIL | PASS |
| D | ≥ 2 pts | Including Model Edge hard-FAIL override | PASS |
| F | < 2 pts | Negative or near-zero edge across checks | HARD_FADE |
Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| Model Grade | The model-strength grade before market trust is interpreted for display. |
| Trust Tier | Market lifecycle stage: trusted, watch, research, or paused. |
| Final Signal | The user-facing recommendation after combining model grade and trust tier. Examples: Top Pick, Best Play, Strong Watch, Research Lead, Paused Signal. |
| Promotion Criteria | Evidence gates showing what a market needs before it can move to the next trust stage. |
Top Pick remains unchanged: Grade A + 100% book consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw_diff ≥ 1.5. Other final signals use the same badge-style presentation without changing the Top Pick rule.
| Stage | Performance-report interpretation |
|---|---|
| trusted | Market is allowed to produce normal actionable recommendations. Continue watching recent windows for drawdown. |
| watch | Market is visible and can be useful, but sample size or recent performance has not fully cleared trusted criteria. |
| research | Market should be evaluated in settled results, but not treated as actionable until validation clears. |
| paused | Market is shadow-only. Settled tracker rows are useful for diagnostics, but not for live bet approval. |
Use market lifecycle beside grade. A Grade A in a research or paused market is not the same thing as a Grade A in a trusted market.
| Component | How to use it in performance review |
|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Explains pitcher prop and batter prop context: hand, K%, innings, pitch-count proxy, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Evaluate held pitcher-outs candidates separately. The goal is to prove when assessment-driven overs/unders should leave research status. |
| HRR Component Research | Review hit, run, and RBI component quality rather than judging HRR as one composite stat. |
| Player Context | Review whether home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, workload, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter context explain prop results. Missing split data should stay neutral. |
| Pre-lineup Hitter Context | K props can use known active-roster hitters before official lineups post: batter handedness and PA-weighted active-roster K% inform opponent context. Confirmed lineups later replace that estimate with exact batting order, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration. |
| Free Savant Pitch Quality | Replacement for paid Pitcher List PLV. Uses public Statcast/Savant summary and arsenal fields to evaluate pitch quality, whiff/contact profile, and workload context as diagnostics only. |
| AI Review | Advisory summary only. It can highlight patterns but should not be counted as a model signal. |
| Check | Name | What it evaluates |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Is the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge. |
| 2 | Model Edge | Does our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D. |
| 3 | Books Agree | Do ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D. |
| 4 | Matchup | Context factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history. |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Is the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise? |
| 6 | Game Script | Total-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment. |
Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.
| Sizing | Units Risked | Included in "Sized Only"? |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | 1.00 | Yes |
| HALF | 0.50 | Yes |
| QRTR | 0.25 | Yes |
| (blank) | 1.00 (implicit) | No — unsized |
Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.
| Band | American Odds Range |
|---|---|
| ≤ −150 | Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout |
| −149 to −125 | Moderate favorites |
| −124 to −105 | Slight favorites |
| −104 to +104 | Near pick-em |
| +105 to +124 | Slight underdogs |
| +125 to +149 | Moderate underdogs |
| ≥ +150 | Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout |
| Section | What it answers |
|---|---|
| A — Headline Summary | Overall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side. |
| B — Bet Type | Performance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only. |
| C — Bet Type × Grade | Within each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays. |
| D — Odds Band Summary | Performance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices. |
| E — Grade × Odds Band | Do A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range? |
| F — Bet Type × Odds Band | Are certain markets only working at certain prices? |
| H1 — Game Bets vs Props | Side-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only. |
| H2 — Prop Type Breakdown | Per-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets. |
| H3 — Prop Type × Grade | Within each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props. |