1090 settled bets | 104 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns
All tracked (1090 bets): -74.27 units | ROI -7.0%
Sized only (104 bets): +6.30 units | ROI +8.6%
▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets
Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):
Grade A: -2.5% (202 bets)
Grade B: -8.0% (888 bets)
✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed
Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):
Moneyline: +81.6% ROI | 6 bets | +2.85 units
Batter Walks: +24.3% ROI | 10 bets | +2.43 units
F5 ML: +19.3% ROI | 28 bets | +4.55 units
Pitcher Earned Runs: +18.4% ROI | 15 bets | +2.76 units
Batter Hits: +13.7% ROI | 16 bets | +2.20 units
Pitcher Hits Allowed: +7.6% ROI | 135 bets | +10.27 units
Pitcher Walks: +7.1% ROI | 14 bets | +1.00 units
K Prop: -4.0% ROI | 204 bets | -8.12 units
Run Line: -5.0% ROI | 101 bets | -4.26 units
Batter Total Bases: -9.1% ROI | 23 bets | -2.10 units
Batter H+R+RBI: -14.2% ROI | 407 bets | -57.64 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
Pitcher Outs: -18.3% ROI | 75 bets | -13.74 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
Total: -26.9% ROI | 42 bets | -9.29 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
No HR U1.5: -57.6% ROI | 9 bets | -5.18 units
⚠ Red flags:
No HR U1.5: 9 bets, ROI -57.6% — strongly negative
Pitcher Outs: 75 bets, ROI -18.3% — strongly negative
Total: 42 bets, ROI -26.9% — strongly negative
Top Pick = Grade A + 100% book consensus (≥3 books) + raw_diff ≥ 1.5 units. Run backfill_top_picks.py to populate historical rows.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Top Pick | 26 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 57.7% | -136 | 57.6% | -0.10 | -0.4% |
| Grade A (all) | 202 | 113 | 89 | 0 | 55.9% | -122 | 55.0% | -4.78 | -2.5% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Batter H+R+RBI | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | -134 | 57.2% | -3.23 | -64.6% |
| ⭐ Batter Total Bases * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -116 | 53.7% | +0.86 | 86.2% |
| ⭐ K Prop | 19 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 63.2% | -136 | 57.7% | +1.67 | 8.8% |
| ⭐ Pitcher Hits Allowed * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -166 | 62.4% | +0.60 | 60.2% |
Sized only = FULL/HALF/QRTR game bets; All tracked includes unsized props.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All tracked | 1090 | 560 | 523 | 7 | 51.7% | -105 | 51.1% | -74.27 | -7.0% |
| Sized only | 104 | 51 | 50 | 3 | 50.5% | -27 | 21.3% | +6.30 | 8.6% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 135 | 81 | 54 | 0 | 60.0% | -99 | 49.7% | +10.27 | 7.6% |
| F5 ML | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 47.8% | +154 | 39.3% | +4.55 | 19.3% |
| Moneyline | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 15 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 66.7% | -107 | 51.8% | +2.76 | 18.4% |
| Batter Walks | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 70.0% | -98 | 49.4% | +2.43 | 24.3% |
| Batter Hits | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 81.2% | -251 | 71.5% | +2.20 | 13.7% |
| Pitcher Walks | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 64.3% | -148 | 59.7% | +1.00 | 7.1% |
| Batter Total Bases | 23 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 47.8% | -102 | 50.6% | -2.10 | -9.1% |
| Run Line | 101 | 53 | 48 | 0 | 52.5% | -91 | 47.7% | -4.26 | -5.0% |
| No HR U1.5 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22.2% | -110 | 52.4% | -5.18 | -57.6% |
| K Prop | 204 | 112 | 92 | 0 | 54.9% | -126 | 55.7% | -8.12 | -4.0% |
| Total | 42 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 37.5% | -90 | 47.3% | -9.29 | -26.9% |
| Pitcher Outs | 75 | 31 | 44 | 0 | 41.3% | -10 | 9.5% | -13.74 | -18.3% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | 407 | 199 | 208 | 0 | 48.9% | -133 | 57.1% | -57.64 | -14.2% |
| NRFI * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| YRFI * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run Line | 44 | 27 | 17 | 0 | 61.4% | -49 | 33.1% | +8.39 | 30.0% |
| F5 ML | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% | +161 | 38.4% | +4.34 | 57.9% |
| Moneyline | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Total | 42 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 37.5% | -90 | 47.3% | -9.29 | -26.9% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | A | 55 | 25 | 30 | 0 | 45.5% | -136 | 57.6% | -11.69 | -21.3% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | B | 352 | 174 | 178 | 0 | 49.4% | -132 | 57.0% | -45.95 | -13.1% |
| Batter Hits | B | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 81.2% | -251 | 71.5% | +2.20 | 13.7% |
| Batter Total Bases | B | 23 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 47.8% | -102 | 50.6% | -2.10 | -9.1% |
| Batter Walks | B | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 70.0% | -98 | 49.4% | +2.43 | 24.3% |
| F5 ML | B | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 47.8% | +154 | 39.3% | +4.55 | 19.3% |
| K Prop | A | 108 | 63 | 45 | 0 | 58.3% | -137 | 57.8% | +0.99 | 0.9% |
| K Prop | B | 96 | 49 | 47 | 0 | 51.0% | -114 | 53.2% | -9.10 | -9.5% |
| Moneyline | B | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| NRFI | B * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| No HR U1.5 | B | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22.2% | -110 | 52.4% | -5.18 | -57.6% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | B | 15 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 66.7% | -107 | 51.8% | +2.76 | 18.4% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -166 | 62.4% | +0.60 | 60.2% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | B | 134 | 80 | 54 | 0 | 59.7% | -98 | 49.6% | +9.66 | 7.2% |
| Pitcher Outs | A * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -143 | 58.8% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | B | 74 | 31 | 43 | 0 | 41.9% | -9 | 8.0% | -12.74 | -17.2% |
| Pitcher Walks | B | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 64.3% | -148 | 59.7% | +1.00 | 7.1% |
| Run Line | A | 36 | 23 | 13 | 0 | 63.9% | -57 | 36.2% | +5.83 | 21.2% |
| Run Line | B | 65 | 30 | 35 | 0 | 46.2% | -110 | 52.5% | -10.09 | -17.6% |
| Total | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -101 | 50.2% | +0.49 | 99.0% |
| Total | B | 41 | 14 | 25 | 2 | 35.9% | -90 | 47.2% | -9.78 | -28.8% |
| YRFI | B * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F5 ML | B | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% | +161 | 38.4% | +4.34 | 57.9% |
| Moneyline | B | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Run Line | A | 28 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 71.4% | -42 | 29.6% | +8.85 | 45.4% |
| Run Line | B | 16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.8% | -63 | 38.5% | -0.46 | -5.4% |
| Total | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -101 | 50.2% | +0.49 | 99.0% |
| Total | B | 41 | 14 | 25 | 2 | 35.9% | -90 | 47.2% | -9.78 | -28.8% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ -150 | 198 | 124 | 74 | 0 | 62.6% | -167 | 62.5% | +0.83 | 0.4% |
| -149 to -125 | 426 | 226 | 200 | 0 | 53.1% | -136 | 57.7% | -33.73 | -8.1% |
| -124 to -105 | 317 | 137 | 178 | 2 | 43.5% | -116 | 53.8% | -57.38 | -18.8% |
| -104 to +104 | 38 | 20 | 18 | 0 | 52.6% | +5 | 95.3% | +0.48 | 1.3% |
| +105 to +124 | 52 | 25 | 27 | 0 | 48.1% | +114 | 46.6% | +1.46 | 2.9% |
| +125 to +149 | 29 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 50.0% | +136 | 42.4% | +5.07 | 19.2% |
| ≥ +150 | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 52.4% | +177 | 36.1% | +9.00 | 43.9% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | ≤ -150 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 0 | 61.1% | -156 | 61.0% | +0.12 | 0.3% |
| A | -149 to -125 | 109 | 64 | 45 | 0 | 58.7% | -136 | 57.6% | +1.39 | 1.3% |
| A | -124 to -105 | 46 | 20 | 26 | 0 | 43.5% | -118 | 54.2% | -10.10 | -23.8% |
| A | -104 to +104 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +34 | 74.8% | +0.49 | 19.8% |
| A | +105 to +124 * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | +116 | 46.3% | +0.13 | 6.5% |
| A | +125 to +149 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +141 | 41.5% | +1.82 | 60.7% |
| A | ≥ +150 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +157 | 38.9% | +1.38 | 55.0% |
| B | ≤ -150 | 162 | 102 | 60 | 0 | 63.0% | -169 | 62.8% | +0.72 | 0.4% |
| B | -149 to -125 | 317 | 162 | 155 | 0 | 51.1% | -136 | 57.7% | -35.12 | -11.2% |
| B | -124 to -105 | 271 | 117 | 152 | 2 | 43.5% | -116 | 53.7% | -47.28 | -18.0% |
| B | -104 to +104 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 51.4% | +2 | 97.6% | -0.02 | -0.0% |
| B | +105 to +124 | 50 | 24 | 26 | 0 | 48.0% | +114 | 46.6% | +1.33 | 2.8% |
| B | +125 to +149 | 26 | 12 | 13 | 1 | 48.0% | +135 | 42.5% | +3.26 | 13.9% |
| B | ≥ +150 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 50.0% | +179 | 35.8% | +7.62 | 42.4% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | ≤ -150 | 62 | 33 | 29 | 0 | 53.2% | -157 | 61.1% | -8.06 | -13.0% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -149 to -125 | 212 | 107 | 105 | 0 | 50.5% | -135 | 57.5% | -25.42 | -12.0% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -124 to -105 | 131 | 59 | 72 | 0 | 45.0% | -118 | 54.1% | -22.16 | -16.9% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -104 to +104 * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | -104 | 50.9% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| Batter Hits | ≤ -150 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 81.2% | -251 | 71.5% | +2.20 | 13.7% |
| Batter Total Bases | -149 to -125 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 55.6% | -134 | 57.3% | -0.33 | -3.6% |
| Batter Total Bases | -124 to -105 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 33.3% | -120 | 54.4% | -4.67 | -38.9% |
| Batter Total Bases | +125 to +149 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +127 | 44.1% | +1.27 | 127.0% |
| Batter Total Bases | ≥ +150 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +163 | 38.0% | +1.63 | 163.0% |
| Batter Walks | ≤ -150 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | -182 | 64.5% | +0.07 | 2.3% |
| Batter Walks | -149 to -125 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | -138 | 58.0% | +0.49 | 16.3% |
| Batter Walks | -124 to -105 * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -118 | 54.0% | +1.70 | 85.1% |
| Batter Walks | -104 to +104 * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | +100 | 50.0% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| Batter Walks | +105 to +124 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +117 | 46.1% | +1.17 | 117.0% |
| F5 ML | +105 to +124 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +123 | 44.8% | +0.32 | 10.7% |
| F5 ML | +125 to +149 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 55.6% | +140 | 41.6% | +2.67 | 33.4% |
| F5 ML | ≥ +150 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 40.0% | +173 | 36.7% | +1.55 | 12.4% |
| K Prop | ≤ -150 | 44 | 29 | 15 | 0 | 65.9% | -155 | 60.8% | +3.72 | 8.5% |
| K Prop | -149 to -125 | 100 | 57 | 43 | 0 | 57.0% | -137 | 57.8% | -1.25 | -1.2% |
| K Prop | -124 to -105 | 52 | 22 | 30 | 0 | 42.3% | -118 | 54.1% | -11.37 | -21.9% |
| K Prop | -104 to +104 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +101 | 49.8% | +1.01 | 101.0% |
| K Prop | +105 to +124 * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | +120 | 45.5% | -0.76 | -25.3% |
| K Prop | +125 to +149 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +129 | 43.7% | +0.53 | 13.2% |
| Moneyline | ≥ +150 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| No HR U1.5 | -124 to -105 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22.2% | -110 | 52.4% | -5.18 | -57.6% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | ≤ -150 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 83.3% | -168 | 62.7% | +1.96 | 32.7% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -149 to -125 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | -133 | 57.1% | +0.47 | 15.8% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | -124 to -105 * | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 25.0% | -111 | 52.6% | -2.10 | -52.5% |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | +105 to +124 * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +121 | 45.2% | +2.42 | 121.0% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ≤ -150 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 0 | 63.2% | -161 | 61.7% | +0.76 | 2.0% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -149 to -125 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 0 | 61.1% | -139 | 58.2% | +1.92 | 5.3% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -124 to -105 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 0 | 58.3% | -114 | 53.4% | +3.46 | 9.6% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -104 to +104 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 66.7% | +11 | 90.0% | +2.97 | 33.0% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | +105 to +124 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 46.7% | +112 | 47.2% | -0.12 | -0.8% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | +125 to +149 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +127 | 44.1% | +1.27 | 127.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | ≤ -150 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | -176 | 63.8% | -1.92 | -38.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | -149 to -125 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 36.4% | -139 | 58.2% | -4.10 | -37.2% |
| Pitcher Outs | -124 to -105 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 38.9% | -114 | 53.3% | -4.90 | -27.2% |
| Pitcher Outs | -104 to +104 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 50.0% | +17 | 85.7% | +0.04 | 0.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | +105 to +124 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | +114 | 46.7% | -0.88 | -4.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | +125 to +149 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 33.3% | +133 | 42.9% | -1.99 | -22.1% |
| Pitcher Walks | ≤ -150 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 71.4% | -166 | 62.4% | +1.06 | 15.2% |
| Pitcher Walks | -149 to -125 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 60.0% | -135 | 57.4% | +0.13 | 2.6% |
| Pitcher Walks | -124 to -105 * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | -118 | 54.2% | -0.19 | -9.7% |
| Run Line | ≤ -150 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 64.7% | -157 | 61.0% | +1.03 | 6.1% |
| Run Line | -149 to -125 | 47 | 24 | 23 | 0 | 51.1% | -137 | 57.9% | -5.65 | -14.7% |
| Run Line | -124 to -105 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | -114 | 53.3% | -3.24 | -22.3% |
| Run Line | -104 to +104 * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | +101 | 49.8% | +0.00 | 0.0% |
| Run Line | +105 to +124 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9% | +112 | 47.1% | -0.70 | -11.6% |
| Run Line | +125 to +149 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +142 | 41.4% | +1.32 | 37.7% |
| Run Line | ≥ +150 * | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0% | +158 | 38.8% | +2.96 | 84.7% |
| Total | -124 to -105 | 31 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 31.0% | -112 | 52.8% | -8.74 | -35.0% |
| Total | -104 to +104 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 54.5% | -28 | 21.9% | -0.55 | -5.7% |
Props are always unsized. This section is unaffected by --sized-only.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5) | 225 | 110 | 108 | 7 | 50.5% | -58 | 36.8% | -5.14 | -2.6% |
| All props combined | 865 | 450 | 415 | 0 | 52.0% | -117 | 53.8% | -69.12 | -8.0% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 135 | 81 | 54 | 0 | 60.0% | -99 | 49.7% | +10.27 | 7.6% |
| Batter Hits | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 81.2% | -251 | 71.5% | +2.20 | 13.7% |
| Batter Total Bases | 23 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 47.8% | -102 | 50.6% | -2.10 | -9.1% |
| K Prop | 204 | 112 | 92 | 0 | 54.9% | -126 | 55.7% | -8.12 | -4.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | 75 | 31 | 44 | 0 | 41.3% | -10 | 9.5% | -13.74 | -18.3% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | 407 | 199 | 208 | 0 | 48.9% | -133 | 57.1% | -57.64 | -14.2% |
| NRFI * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| YRFI * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
Grades only populate from the run that fixed the tracker bug onward.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | A | 55 | 25 | 30 | 0 | 45.5% | -136 | 57.6% | -11.69 | -21.3% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | B | 352 | 174 | 178 | 0 | 49.4% | -132 | 57.0% | -45.95 | -13.1% |
| Batter Hits | B | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 81.2% | -251 | 71.5% | +2.20 | 13.7% |
| Batter Total Bases | B | 23 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 47.8% | -102 | 50.6% | -2.10 | -9.1% |
| K Prop | A | 108 | 63 | 45 | 0 | 58.3% | -137 | 57.8% | +0.99 | 0.9% |
| K Prop | B | 96 | 49 | 47 | 0 | 51.0% | -114 | 53.2% | -9.10 | -9.5% |
| NRFI | B * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -166 | 62.4% | +0.60 | 60.2% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | B | 134 | 80 | 54 | 0 | 59.7% | -98 | 49.6% | +9.66 | 7.2% |
| Pitcher Outs | A * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -143 | 58.8% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | B | 74 | 31 | 43 | 0 | 41.9% | -9 | 8.0% | -12.74 | -17.2% |
| YRFI | B * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
| Bets | Number of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank) |
| W / L / P | Wins, Losses, Pushes |
| Win% | Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator |
| AvgOdds | Mean American odds across all bets in the bucket |
| BE% | Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; |odds|/(|odds|+100) for − odds |
| Net Units | Sum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable |
| ROI% | Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked. |
| * | Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise. |
| Grade | Score Threshold | Conditions | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | ≥ 10 pts | 0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradiction | BEST_PLAY |
| B | ≥ 8 pts | 0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradiction | GOOD_ADD |
| C | ≥ 4 pts | Including B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAIL | PASS |
| D | ≥ 2 pts | Including Model Edge hard-FAIL override | PASS |
| F | < 2 pts | Negative or near-zero edge across checks | HARD_FADE |
Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| Model Grade | The model-strength grade before market trust is interpreted for display. |
| Trust Tier | Market lifecycle stage: trusted, watch, research, or paused. |
| Final Signal | The user-facing recommendation after combining model grade and trust tier. Examples: Top Pick, Best Play, Strong Watch, Research Lead, Paused Signal. |
| Promotion Criteria | Evidence gates showing what a market needs before it can move to the next trust stage. |
Top Pick remains unchanged: Grade A + 100% book consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw_diff ≥ 1.5. Other final signals use the same badge-style presentation without changing the Top Pick rule.
| Stage | Performance-report interpretation |
|---|---|
| trusted | Market is allowed to produce normal actionable recommendations. Continue watching recent windows for drawdown. |
| watch | Market is visible and can be useful, but sample size or recent performance has not fully cleared trusted criteria. |
| research | Market should be evaluated in settled results, but not treated as actionable until validation clears. |
| paused | Market is shadow-only. Settled tracker rows are useful for diagnostics, but not for live bet approval. |
Use market lifecycle beside grade. A Grade A in a research or paused market is not the same thing as a Grade A in a trusted market.
| Component | How to use it in performance review |
|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Explains pitcher prop and batter prop context: hand, K%, innings, pitch-count proxy, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Evaluate held pitcher-outs candidates separately. The goal is to prove when assessment-driven overs/unders should leave research status. |
| HRR Component Research | Review hit, run, and RBI component quality rather than judging HRR as one composite stat. |
| Player Context | Review whether home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, workload, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter context explain prop results. Missing split data should stay neutral. |
| Pre-lineup Hitter Context | K props can use known active-roster hitters before official lineups post: batter handedness and PA-weighted active-roster K% inform opponent context. Confirmed lineups later replace that estimate with exact batting order, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration. |
| Free Savant Pitch Quality | Replacement for paid Pitcher List PLV. Uses public Statcast/Savant summary and arsenal fields to evaluate pitch quality, whiff/contact profile, and workload context as diagnostics only. |
| AI Review | Advisory summary only. It can highlight patterns but should not be counted as a model signal. |
| Check | Name | What it evaluates |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Is the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge. |
| 2 | Model Edge | Does our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D. |
| 3 | Books Agree | Do ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D. |
| 4 | Matchup | Context factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history. |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Is the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise? |
| 6 | Game Script | Total-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment. |
Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.
| Sizing | Units Risked | Included in "Sized Only"? |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | 1.00 | Yes |
| HALF | 0.50 | Yes |
| QRTR | 0.25 | Yes |
| (blank) | 1.00 (implicit) | No — unsized |
Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.
| Band | American Odds Range |
|---|---|
| ≤ −150 | Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout |
| −149 to −125 | Moderate favorites |
| −124 to −105 | Slight favorites |
| −104 to +104 | Near pick-em |
| +105 to +124 | Slight underdogs |
| +125 to +149 | Moderate underdogs |
| ≥ +150 | Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout |
| Section | What it answers |
|---|---|
| A — Headline Summary | Overall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side. |
| B — Bet Type | Performance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only. |
| C — Bet Type × Grade | Within each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays. |
| D — Odds Band Summary | Performance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices. |
| E — Grade × Odds Band | Do A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range? |
| F — Bet Type × Odds Band | Are certain markets only working at certain prices? |
| H1 — Game Bets vs Props | Side-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only. |
| H2 — Prop Type Breakdown | Per-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets. |
| H3 — Prop Type × Grade | Within each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props. |