984 settled bets | 104 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns
All tracked (984 bets): -72.70 units | ROI -7.6%
Sized only (104 bets): +6.30 units | ROI +8.6%
▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets
Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):
Grade A: -0.2% (189 bets)
Grade B: -9.3% (795 bets)
✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed
Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):
Moneyline: +81.6% ROI | 6 bets | +2.85 units
Batter Hits: +20.2% ROI | 14 bets | +2.82 units
F5 ML: +19.3% ROI | 28 bets | +4.55 units
Pitcher Hits Allowed: +9.0% ROI | 112 bets | +10.10 units
Run Line: +5.0% ROI | 77 bets | +3.04 units
K Prop: -3.7% ROI | 189 bets | -6.99 units
Batter H+R+RBI: -14.2% ROI | 407 bets | -57.64 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
Batter Total Bases: -16.1% ROI | 20 bets | -3.23 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
Pitcher Outs: -18.3% ROI | 75 bets | -13.74 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
Total: -26.9% ROI | 42 bets | -9.29 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER
No HR U1.5: -57.6% ROI | 9 bets | -5.18 units
⚠ Red flags:
Batter Total Bases: 20 bets, ROI -16.1% — strongly negative
No HR U1.5: 9 bets, ROI -57.6% — strongly negative
Pitcher Outs: 75 bets, ROI -18.3% — strongly negative
Total: 42 bets, ROI -26.9% — strongly negative
Top Pick = Grade A + 100% book consensus (≥3 books) + raw_diff ≥ 1.5 units. Run backfill_top_picks.py to populate historical rows.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Top Pick | 23 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 56.5% | -136 | 57.6% | -0.56 | -2.4% |
| Grade A (all) | 189 | 108 | 81 | 0 | 57.1% | -121 | 54.8% | -0.39 | -0.2% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Batter H+R+RBI | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% | -134 | 57.2% | -3.23 | -64.6% |
| ⭐ K Prop | 18 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 66.7% | -137 | 57.7% | +2.67 | 14.8% |
Sized only = FULL/HALF/QRTR game bets; All tracked includes unsized props.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All tracked | 984 | 500 | 477 | 7 | 51.2% | -103 | 50.7% | -72.70 | -7.6% |
| Sized only | 104 | 51 | 50 | 3 | 50.5% | -27 | 21.3% | +6.30 | 8.6% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 112 | 68 | 44 | 0 | 60.7% | -101 | 50.3% | +10.10 | 9.0% |
| F5 ML | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 47.8% | +154 | 39.3% | +4.55 | 19.3% |
| Run Line | 77 | 43 | 34 | 0 | 55.8% | -75 | 43.0% | +3.04 | 5.0% |
| Moneyline | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Batter Hits | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 85.7% | -250 | 71.4% | +2.82 | 20.2% |
| Batter Total Bases | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | -112 | 52.9% | -3.23 | -16.1% |
| No HR U1.5 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22.2% | -110 | 52.4% | -5.18 | -57.6% |
| K Prop | 189 | 104 | 85 | 0 | 55.0% | -125 | 55.6% | -6.99 | -3.7% |
| Total | 42 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 37.5% | -90 | 47.3% | -9.29 | -26.9% |
| Pitcher Outs | 75 | 31 | 44 | 0 | 41.3% | -10 | 9.5% | -13.74 | -18.3% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | 407 | 199 | 208 | 0 | 48.9% | -133 | 57.1% | -57.64 | -14.2% |
| NRFI * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| YRFI * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run Line | 44 | 27 | 17 | 0 | 61.4% | -49 | 33.1% | +8.39 | 30.0% |
| F5 ML | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% | +161 | 38.4% | +4.34 | 57.9% |
| Moneyline | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Total | 42 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 37.5% | -90 | 47.3% | -9.29 | -26.9% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | A | 55 | 25 | 30 | 0 | 45.5% | -136 | 57.6% | -11.69 | -21.3% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | B | 352 | 174 | 178 | 0 | 49.4% | -132 | 57.0% | -45.95 | -13.1% |
| Batter Hits | B | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 85.7% | -250 | 71.4% | +2.82 | 20.2% |
| Batter Total Bases | B | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | -112 | 52.9% | -3.23 | -16.1% |
| F5 ML | B | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 47.8% | +154 | 39.3% | +4.55 | 19.3% |
| K Prop | A | 102 | 61 | 41 | 0 | 59.8% | -138 | 57.9% | +3.31 | 3.2% |
| K Prop | B | 87 | 43 | 44 | 0 | 49.4% | -111 | 52.6% | -10.31 | -11.8% |
| Moneyline | B | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| NRFI | B * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| No HR U1.5 | B | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22.2% | -110 | 52.4% | -5.18 | -57.6% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | B | 112 | 68 | 44 | 0 | 60.7% | -101 | 50.3% | +10.10 | 9.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | A * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -143 | 58.8% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | B | 74 | 31 | 43 | 0 | 41.9% | -9 | 8.0% | -12.74 | -17.2% |
| Run Line | A | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 70.0% | -40 | 28.8% | +8.49 | 39.5% |
| Run Line | B | 47 | 22 | 25 | 0 | 46.8% | -98 | 49.4% | -5.45 | -13.8% |
| Total | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -101 | 50.2% | +0.49 | 99.0% |
| Total | B | 41 | 14 | 25 | 2 | 35.9% | -90 | 47.2% | -9.78 | -28.8% |
| YRFI | B * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F5 ML | B | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 54.5% | +161 | 38.4% | +4.34 | 57.9% |
| Moneyline | B | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| Run Line | A | 28 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 71.4% | -42 | 29.6% | +8.85 | 45.4% |
| Run Line | B | 16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.8% | -63 | 38.5% | -0.46 | -5.4% |
| Total | A * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | -101 | 50.2% | +0.49 | 99.0% |
| Total | B | 41 | 14 | 25 | 2 | 35.9% | -90 | 47.2% | -9.78 | -28.8% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ -150 | 160 | 97 | 63 | 0 | 60.6% | -166 | 62.4% | -4.51 | -2.8% |
| -149 to -125 | 392 | 210 | 182 | 0 | 53.6% | -136 | 57.7% | -27.32 | -7.1% |
| -124 to -105 | 293 | 127 | 164 | 2 | 43.6% | -116 | 53.8% | -51.80 | -18.4% |
| -104 to +104 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 0 | 54.3% | -3 | 3.2% | +1.47 | 4.4% |
| +105 to +124 | 46 | 20 | 26 | 0 | 43.5% | +114 | 46.6% | -3.34 | -7.6% |
| +125 to +149 | 28 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 48.1% | +136 | 42.3% | +3.80 | 14.9% |
| ≥ +150 | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 52.4% | +177 | 36.1% | +9.00 | 43.9% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | ≤ -150 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 60.6% | -156 | 61.0% | -0.13 | -0.4% |
| A | -149 to -125 | 105 | 63 | 42 | 0 | 60.0% | -136 | 57.6% | +3.69 | 3.7% |
| A | -124 to -105 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 0 | 45.0% | -119 | 54.3% | -7.77 | -21.3% |
| A | -104 to +104 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +34 | 74.8% | +0.49 | 19.8% |
| A | +105 to +124 * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | +116 | 46.3% | +0.13 | 6.5% |
| A | +125 to +149 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +141 | 41.5% | +1.82 | 60.7% |
| A | ≥ +150 * | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | +157 | 38.9% | +1.38 | 55.0% |
| B | ≤ -150 | 127 | 77 | 50 | 0 | 60.6% | -169 | 62.8% | -4.38 | -3.5% |
| B | -149 to -125 | 287 | 147 | 140 | 0 | 51.2% | -136 | 57.7% | -31.01 | -11.0% |
| B | -124 to -105 | 253 | 109 | 142 | 2 | 43.4% | -116 | 53.7% | -44.03 | -18.0% |
| B | -104 to +104 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 0 | 53.1% | -7 | 6.3% | +0.97 | 3.1% |
| B | +105 to +124 | 44 | 19 | 25 | 0 | 43.2% | +114 | 46.6% | -3.47 | -8.3% |
| B | +125 to +149 | 25 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 45.8% | +136 | 42.4% | +1.99 | 8.8% |
| B | ≥ +150 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 50.0% | +179 | 35.8% | +7.62 | 42.4% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | ≤ -150 | 62 | 33 | 29 | 0 | 53.2% | -157 | 61.1% | -8.06 | -13.0% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -149 to -125 | 212 | 107 | 105 | 0 | 50.5% | -135 | 57.5% | -25.42 | -12.0% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -124 to -105 | 131 | 59 | 72 | 0 | 45.0% | -118 | 54.1% | -22.16 | -16.9% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | -104 to +104 * | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | -104 | 50.9% | -2.00 | -100.0% |
| Batter Hits | ≤ -150 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 85.7% | -250 | 71.4% | +2.82 | 20.2% |
| Batter Total Bases | -149 to -125 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 55.6% | -134 | 57.3% | -0.33 | -3.6% |
| Batter Total Bases | -124 to -105 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 30.0% | -120 | 54.5% | -4.53 | -45.3% |
| Batter Total Bases | ≥ +150 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +163 | 38.0% | +1.63 | 163.0% |
| F5 ML | +105 to +124 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +123 | 44.8% | +0.32 | 10.7% |
| F5 ML | +125 to +149 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 55.6% | +140 | 41.6% | +2.67 | 33.4% |
| F5 ML | ≥ +150 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 40.0% | +173 | 36.7% | +1.55 | 12.4% |
| K Prop | ≤ -150 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 0 | 63.4% | -155 | 60.8% | +1.77 | 4.3% |
| K Prop | -149 to -125 | 94 | 55 | 39 | 0 | 58.5% | -137 | 57.8% | +1.32 | 1.4% |
| K Prop | -124 to -105 | 46 | 19 | 27 | 0 | 41.3% | -118 | 54.1% | -10.86 | -23.6% |
| K Prop | -104 to +104 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +101 | 49.8% | +1.01 | 101.0% |
| K Prop | +105 to +124 * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | +120 | 45.5% | -0.76 | -25.3% |
| K Prop | +125 to +149 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +129 | 43.7% | +0.53 | 13.2% |
| Moneyline | ≥ +150 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50.0% | +201 | 33.2% | +2.85 | 81.6% |
| No HR U1.5 | -124 to -105 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22.2% | -110 | 52.4% | -5.18 | -57.6% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ≤ -150 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 0 | 61.3% | -161 | 61.7% | -0.32 | -1.0% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -149 to -125 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 0 | 63.3% | -139 | 58.2% | +2.73 | 9.1% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -124 to -105 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 0 | 61.3% | -114 | 53.3% | +4.80 | 15.5% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | -104 to +104 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 71.4% | -14 | 12.6% | +2.96 | 42.3% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | +105 to +124 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 41.7% | +113 | 47.0% | -1.33 | -11.1% |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | +125 to +149 * | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +127 | 44.1% | +1.27 | 127.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | ≤ -150 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0% | -176 | 63.8% | -1.92 | -38.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | -149 to -125 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 36.4% | -139 | 58.2% | -4.10 | -37.2% |
| Pitcher Outs | -124 to -105 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 38.9% | -114 | 53.3% | -4.90 | -27.2% |
| Pitcher Outs | -104 to +104 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 50.0% | +17 | 85.7% | +0.04 | 0.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | +105 to +124 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | +114 | 46.7% | -0.88 | -4.4% |
| Pitcher Outs | +125 to +149 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 33.3% | +133 | 42.9% | -1.99 | -22.1% |
| Run Line | ≤ -150 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 71.4% | -156 | 61.0% | +1.20 | 17.2% |
| Run Line | -149 to -125 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 0 | 55.6% | -137 | 57.8% | -1.52 | -5.5% |
| Run Line | -124 to -105 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 52.9% | -115 | 53.5% | -0.24 | -2.1% |
| Run Line | -104 to +104 * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | +101 | 49.8% | +0.00 | 0.0% |
| Run Line | +105 to +124 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9% | +112 | 47.1% | -0.70 | -11.6% |
| Run Line | +125 to +149 * | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +142 | 41.4% | +1.32 | 37.7% |
| Run Line | ≥ +150 * | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0% | +158 | 38.8% | +2.96 | 84.7% |
| Total | -124 to -105 | 31 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 31.0% | -112 | 52.8% | -8.74 | -35.0% |
| Total | -104 to +104 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 54.5% | -28 | 21.9% | -0.55 | -5.7% |
Props are always unsized. This section is unaffected by --sized-only.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5) | 162 | 74 | 81 | 7 | 47.7% | -31 | 23.7% | -4.03 | -3.1% |
| All props combined | 822 | 426 | 396 | 0 | 51.8% | -117 | 53.9% | -68.67 | -8.4% |
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | 112 | 68 | 44 | 0 | 60.7% | -101 | 50.3% | +10.10 | 9.0% |
| Batter Hits | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 85.7% | -250 | 71.4% | +2.82 | 20.2% |
| Batter Total Bases | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | -112 | 52.9% | -3.23 | -16.1% |
| K Prop | 189 | 104 | 85 | 0 | 55.0% | -125 | 55.6% | -6.99 | -3.7% |
| Pitcher Outs | 75 | 31 | 44 | 0 | 41.3% | -10 | 9.5% | -13.74 | -18.3% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | 407 | 199 | 208 | 0 | 48.9% | -133 | 57.1% | -57.64 | -14.2% |
| NRFI * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| YRFI * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
Grades only populate from the run that fixed the tracker bug onward.
| Group | Bets | W | L | P | Win% | AvgOdds | BE% | Net Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter H+R+RBI | A | 55 | 25 | 30 | 0 | 45.5% | -136 | 57.6% | -11.69 | -21.3% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | B | 352 | 174 | 178 | 0 | 49.4% | -132 | 57.0% | -45.95 | -13.1% |
| Batter Hits | B | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 85.7% | -250 | 71.4% | +2.82 | 20.2% |
| Batter Total Bases | B | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 45.0% | -112 | 52.9% | -3.23 | -16.1% |
| K Prop | A | 102 | 61 | 41 | 0 | 59.8% | -138 | 57.9% | +3.31 | 3.2% |
| K Prop | B | 87 | 43 | 44 | 0 | 49.4% | -111 | 52.6% | -10.31 | -11.8% |
| NRFI | B * | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | B | 112 | 68 | 44 | 0 | 60.7% | -101 | 50.3% | +10.10 | 9.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | A * | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -143 | 58.8% | -1.00 | -100.0% |
| Pitcher Outs | B | 74 | 31 | 43 | 0 | 41.9% | -9 | 8.0% | -12.74 | -17.2% |
| YRFI | B * | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
| Bets | Number of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank) |
| W / L / P | Wins, Losses, Pushes |
| Win% | Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator |
| AvgOdds | Mean American odds across all bets in the bucket |
| BE% | Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; |odds|/(|odds|+100) for − odds |
| Net Units | Sum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable |
| ROI% | Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked. |
| * | Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise. |
| Grade | Score Threshold | Conditions | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | ≥ 10 pts | 0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradiction | BEST_PLAY |
| B | ≥ 8 pts | 0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradiction | GOOD_ADD |
| C | ≥ 4 pts | Including B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAIL | PASS |
| D | ≥ 2 pts | Including Model Edge hard-FAIL override | PASS |
| F | < 2 pts | Negative or near-zero edge across checks | HARD_FADE |
Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| Model Grade | The model-strength grade before market trust is interpreted for display. |
| Trust Tier | Market lifecycle stage: trusted, watch, research, or paused. |
| Final Signal | The user-facing recommendation after combining model grade and trust tier. Examples: Top Pick, Best Play, Strong Watch, Research Lead, Paused Signal. |
| Promotion Criteria | Evidence gates showing what a market needs before it can move to the next trust stage. |
Top Pick remains unchanged: Grade A + 100% book consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw_diff ≥ 1.5. Other final signals use the same badge-style presentation without changing the Top Pick rule.
| Stage | Performance-report interpretation |
|---|---|
| trusted | Market is allowed to produce normal actionable recommendations. Continue watching recent windows for drawdown. |
| watch | Market is visible and can be useful, but sample size or recent performance has not fully cleared trusted criteria. |
| research | Market should be evaluated in settled results, but not treated as actionable until validation clears. |
| paused | Market is shadow-only. Settled tracker rows are useful for diagnostics, but not for live bet approval. |
Use market lifecycle beside grade. A Grade A in a research or paused market is not the same thing as a Grade A in a trusted market.
| Component | How to use it in performance review |
|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Explains pitcher prop and batter prop context: hand, K%, innings, pitch-count proxy, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Evaluate held pitcher-outs candidates separately. The goal is to prove when assessment-driven overs/unders should leave research status. |
| HRR Component Research | Review hit, run, and RBI component quality rather than judging HRR as one composite stat. |
| Player Context | Review whether home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, and workload diagnostics explain prop results. Missing split data should stay neutral. |
| PLV/PLA | Diagnostic-only until validated. Compare PLV-supported plays vs non-PLV plays before allowing any projection adjustment. |
| AI Review | Advisory summary only. It can highlight patterns but should not be counted as a model signal. |
| Check | Name | What it evaluates |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baby Line | Is the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge. |
| 2 | Model Edge | Does our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D. |
| 3 | Books Agree | Do ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D. |
| 4 | Matchup | Context factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history. |
| 5 | Role / Injury | Is the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise? |
| 6 | Game Script | Total-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment. |
Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.
| Sizing | Units Risked | Included in "Sized Only"? |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | 1.00 | Yes |
| HALF | 0.50 | Yes |
| QRTR | 0.25 | Yes |
| (blank) | 1.00 (implicit) | No — unsized |
Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.
| Band | American Odds Range |
|---|---|
| ≤ −150 | Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout |
| −149 to −125 | Moderate favorites |
| −124 to −105 | Slight favorites |
| −104 to +104 | Near pick-em |
| +105 to +124 | Slight underdogs |
| +125 to +149 | Moderate underdogs |
| ≥ +150 | Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout |
| Section | What it answers |
|---|---|
| A — Headline Summary | Overall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side. |
| B — Bet Type | Performance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only. |
| C — Bet Type × Grade | Within each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays. |
| D — Odds Band Summary | Performance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices. |
| E — Grade × Odds Band | Do A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range? |
| F — Bet Type × Odds Band | Are certain markets only working at certain prices? |
| H1 — Game Bets vs Props | Side-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only. |
| H2 — Prop Type Breakdown | Per-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets. |
| H3 — Prop Type × Grade | Within each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props. |