MLB Betting — Performance Report

Generated 2026-05-05 | Date range: all → 2026-05-05 | 740 settled bets (104 sized)

📊 Interpretive Summary

740 settled bets | 104 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns

All tracked (740 bets): -35.84 units  |  ROI -5.1%

Sized only (104 bets): +7.10 units  |  ROI +9.7%

▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets


Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):

   Grade A: -0.1% (125 bets)

   Grade B: -6.0% (615 bets)

✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed


Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):

   Moneyline: +81.6% ROI  |  6 bets  |  +2.85 units

   Batter Total Bases: +60.9% ROI  |  6 bets  |  +3.65 units

   F5 ML: +29.7% ROI  |  22 bets  |  +5.19 units

   Run Line: +21.3% ROI  |  46 bets  |  +6.39 units

   Batter Hits: +18.9% ROI  |  13 bets  |  +2.46 units

   Pitcher Hits Allowed: +11.5% ROI  |  70 bets  |  +8.03 units

   K Prop: -4.1% ROI  |  110 bets  |  -4.50 units

   Batter H+R+RBI: -10.5% ROI  |  347 bets  |  -36.37 units  ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

   Pitcher Outs: -13.9% ROI  |  66 bets  |  -9.17 units  ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

   Total: -26.9% ROI  |  42 bets  |  -9.29 units  ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

   No HR U1.5: -72.7% ROI  |  7 bets  |  -5.09 units


⚠ Red flags:

   Total: 42 bets, ROI -26.9% — strongly negative

Section T — ⭐ Top Pick Performance

Top Pick = Grade A + 100% book consensus (≥3 books) + raw_diff ≥ 1.5 units. Run backfill_top_picks.py to populate historical rows.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
⭐ Top Pick633050.0%-13858.0%-0.88-14.7%
Grade A (all)1257154056.8%-11553.5%-0.14-0.1%

Section T2 — Top Pick by Bet Type

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
⭐ Batter H+R+RBI *20200.0%-13657.7%-2.00-100.0%
⭐ K Prop *431075.0%-13958.1%+1.1228.0%

Section A — Headline Summary

Sized only = FULL/HALF/QRTR game bets; All tracked includes unsized props.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
All tracked740386349552.5%-10450.9%-35.84-5.1%
Sized only1045250251.0%-2721.3%+7.109.7%

Section B — Bet Type (all tracked)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Pitcher Hits Allowed704525064.3%-12956.3%+8.0311.5%
Run Line462719058.7%-4732.1%+6.3921.3%
F5 ML22109352.6%+15639.1%+5.1929.7%
Batter Total Bases651083.3%-8144.8%+3.6560.9%
Moneyline633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Batter Hits13112084.6%-24871.2%+2.4618.9%
K Prop1106050054.5%-12455.3%-4.50-4.1%
No HR U1.5716014.3%-11052.4%-5.09-72.7%
Pitcher Outs662937043.9%-2519.9%-9.17-13.9%
Total421525237.5%-9047.3%-9.29-26.9%
Batter H+R+RBI347177170051.0%-13357.1%-36.37-10.5%
NRFI *312033.3%
YRFI *2200100.0%

Section B — Bet Type (sized only)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Run Line442717061.4%-4933.1%+8.3930.0%
F5 ML1275058.3%+16138.4%+5.1468.6%
Moneyline633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Total421525237.5%-9047.3%-9.29-26.9%

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | A522428046.2%-13657.6%-10.48-20.2%
Batter H+R+RBI | B295153142051.9%-13357.0%-25.89-8.8%
Batter Hits | B13112084.6%-24871.2%+2.4618.9%
Batter Total Bases | B651083.3%-8144.8%+3.6560.9%
F5 ML | B22109352.6%+15639.1%+5.1929.7%
K Prop | A432617060.5%-13757.8%+2.004.7%
K Prop | B673433050.7%-11553.6%-6.50-9.7%
Moneyline | B633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
NRFI | B *312033.3%
No HR U1.5 | B716014.3%-11052.4%-5.09-72.7%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | B704525064.3%-12956.3%+8.0311.5%
Pitcher Outs | A *10100.0%-14358.8%-1.00-100.0%
Pitcher Outs | B652936044.6%-2318.7%-8.17-12.6%
Run Line | A28208071.4%-4229.6%+8.8545.4%
Run Line | B18711038.9%-5635.8%-2.46-23.4%
Total | A *1100100.0%-10150.2%+0.4999.0%
Total | B411425235.9%-9047.2%-9.78-28.8%
YRFI | B *2200100.0%

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (sized only)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
F5 ML | B1275058.3%+16138.4%+5.1468.6%
Moneyline | B633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Run Line | A28208071.4%-4229.6%+8.8545.4%
Run Line | B1679043.8%-6338.5%-0.46-5.4%
Total | A *1100100.0%-10150.2%+0.4999.0%
Total | B411425235.9%-9047.2%-9.78-28.8%

Section D — Odds Band Summary

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
≤ -1501307951060.8%-16762.6%-3.79-2.9%
-149 to -125284153131053.9%-13657.6%-18.01-6.5%
-124 to -105222102118246.4%-11653.7%-27.23-12.9%
-104 to +104291415048.3%-43.7%-2.50-9.1%
+105 to +124281414050.0%+11546.5%+1.847.1%
+125 to +149201010050.0%+13742.2%+3.8021.7%
≥ +15022118357.9%+17935.9%+10.0557.4%

Section E — Grade × Odds Band

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
A | ≤ -15017116064.7%-15660.9%+1.086.3%
A | -149 to -125713932054.9%-13657.6%-3.92-5.9%
A | -124 to -105271413051.9%-11854.2%-2.12-9.0%
A | -104 to +104 *321066.7%+3474.8%+0.4919.8%
A | +105 to +124 *1100100.0%+11346.9%+1.13113.0%
A | +125 to +149 *321066.7%+14141.5%+1.8260.7%
A | ≥ +150 *321066.7%+15738.9%+1.3855.0%
B | ≤ -1501136845060.2%-16962.8%-4.87-4.3%
B | -149 to -12521311499053.5%-13657.6%-14.09-6.7%
B | -124 to -10519588105245.6%-11653.6%-25.11-13.4%
B | -104 to +104261214046.2%-87.6%-3.00-12.0%
B | +105 to +124271314048.1%+11546.5%+0.712.8%
B | +125 to +1491789047.1%+13642.3%+1.9813.7%
B | ≥ +1501997356.2%+18235.4%+8.6757.8%

Section F — Bet Type × Odds Band

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | ≤ -150593227054.2%-15761.1%-6.71-11.4%
Batter H+R+RBI | -149 to -1251769284052.3%-13557.5%-15.49-8.8%
Batter H+R+RBI | -124 to -1051105357048.2%-11854.1%-12.17-11.1%
Batter H+R+RBI | -104 to +104 *20200.0%-10450.9%-2.00-100.0%
Batter Hits | ≤ -15013112084.6%-24871.2%+2.4618.9%
Batter Total Bases | -149 to -125 *3300100.0%-13857.9%+2.1872.7%
Batter Total Bases | -124 to -105 *211050.0%-11854.1%-0.16-8.0%
Batter Total Bases | ≥ +150 *1100100.0%+16338.0%+1.63163.0%
F5 ML | +105 to +124 *422050.0%+12344.8%+0.3210.7%
F5 ML | +125 to +149743057.1%+14241.3%+2.2745.5%
F5 ML | ≥ +1501144350.0%+17636.3%+2.6027.4%
K Prop | ≤ -15023167069.6%-15560.7%+3.3214.4%
K Prop | -149 to -125563026053.6%-13757.7%-3.98-7.1%
K Prop | -124 to -105261115042.3%-11753.9%-5.61-21.6%
K Prop | +105 to +124 *211050.0%+12244.9%+0.2412.0%
K Prop | +125 to +149 *321066.7%+12744.0%+1.5351.0%
Moneyline | ≥ +150633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
No HR U1.5 | -124 to -105716014.3%-11052.4%-5.09-72.7%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | ≤ -150301812060.0%-16161.7%-0.94-3.1%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -149 to -12521147066.7%-13857.9%+3.2215.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -124 to -10514113078.6%-11553.5%+6.6847.7%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -104 to +104 *312033.3%+3474.4%-1.00-33.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | +105 to +124 *211050.0%+11047.7%+0.084.0%
Pitcher Outs | ≤ -150523040.0%-17663.8%-1.92-38.4%
Pitcher Outs | -149 to -1251147036.4%-13958.2%-4.10-37.2%
Pitcher Outs | -124 to -10517710041.2%-11453.3%-3.90-22.9%
Pitcher Outs | -104 to +1041165054.5%+991.7%+1.049.5%
Pitcher Outs | +105 to +1241688050.0%+11446.8%+1.026.4%
Pitcher Outs | +125 to +149624033.3%+13243.0%-1.32-22.0%
Run Line | -149 to -12517107058.8%-13557.4%+0.161.9%
Run Line | -124 to -1051596060.0%-11553.6%+1.7618.6%
Run Line | -104 to +104 *211050.0%+10149.8%+0.000.0%
Run Line | +105 to +124 *422050.0%+11147.4%+0.175.8%
Run Line | +125 to +149 *422050.0%+14241.4%+1.3237.7%
Run Line | ≥ +150 *431075.0%+15838.8%+2.9684.7%
Total | -124 to -10531920231.0%-11252.8%-8.74-35.0%
Total | -104 to +1041165054.5%-2821.9%-0.55-5.7%

Section H1 — Game Bets vs Props

Props are always unsized. This section is unaffected by --sized-only.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5)1235662547.5%-1714.5%+0.060.1%
All props combined617330287053.5%-12154.8%-35.90-5.8%

Section H2 — Prop Type Breakdown

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Pitcher Hits Allowed704525064.3%-12956.3%+8.0311.5%
Batter Total Bases651083.3%-8144.8%+3.6560.9%
Batter Hits13112084.6%-24871.2%+2.4618.9%
K Prop1106050054.5%-12455.3%-4.50-4.1%
Pitcher Outs662937043.9%-2519.9%-9.17-13.9%
Batter H+R+RBI347177170051.0%-13357.1%-36.37-10.5%
NRFI *312033.3%
YRFI *2200100.0%

Section H3 — Prop Type × Grade

Grades only populate from the run that fixed the tracker bug onward.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | A522428046.2%-13657.6%-10.48-20.2%
Batter H+R+RBI | B295153142051.9%-13357.0%-25.89-8.8%
Batter Hits | B13112084.6%-24871.2%+2.4618.9%
Batter Total Bases | B651083.3%-8144.8%+3.6560.9%
K Prop | A432617060.5%-13757.8%+2.004.7%
K Prop | B673433050.7%-11553.6%-6.50-9.7%
NRFI | B *312033.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | B704525064.3%-12956.3%+8.0311.5%
Pitcher Outs | A *10100.0%-14358.8%-1.00-100.0%
Pitcher Outs | B652936044.6%-2318.7%-8.17-12.6%
YRFI | B *2200100.0%

Codebook & Documentation

Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.

Metric Columns

ColumnDescription
BetsNumber of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank)
W / L / PWins, Losses, Pushes
Win%Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator
AvgOddsMean American odds across all bets in the bucket
BE%Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; |odds|/(|odds|+100) for − odds
Net UnitsSum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable
ROI%Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked.
*Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise.

Grade Scale

GradeScore ThresholdConditionsRecommendation
A≥ 10 pts0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradictionBEST_PLAY
B≥ 8 pts0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradictionGOOD_ADD
C≥ 4 ptsIncluding B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAILPASS
D≥ 2 ptsIncluding Model Edge hard-FAIL overridePASS
F< 2 ptsNegative or near-zero edge across checksHARD_FADE

Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.

V2 Framework — Six Checks

CheckNameWhat it evaluates
1Baby LineIs the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge.
2Model EdgeDoes our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D.
3Books AgreeDo ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D.
4MatchupContext factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history.
5Role / InjuryIs the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise?
6Game ScriptTotal-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment.

Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.

Sizing Values

SizingUnits RiskedIncluded in "Sized Only"?
FULL1.00Yes
HALF0.50Yes
QRTR0.25Yes
(blank)1.00 (implicit)No — unsized

Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.

Odds Bands

BandAmerican Odds Range
≤ −150Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout
−149 to −125Moderate favorites
−124 to −105Slight favorites
−104 to +104Near pick-em
+105 to +124Slight underdogs
+125 to +149Moderate underdogs
≥ +150Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout

Section Descriptions

SectionWhat it answers
A — Headline SummaryOverall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side.
B — Bet TypePerformance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only.
C — Bet Type × GradeWithin each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays.
D — Odds Band SummaryPerformance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices.
E — Grade × Odds BandDo A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range?
F — Bet Type × Odds BandAre certain markets only working at certain prices?
H1 — Game Bets vs PropsSide-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only.
H2 — Prop Type BreakdownPer-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets.
H3 — Prop Type × GradeWithin each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props.

ROI Denominator Rules