MLB Betting — Performance Report

Generated 2026-05-04 | Date range: all → 2026-05-04 | 710 settled bets (104 sized)

📊 Interpretive Summary

710 settled bets | 104 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns

All tracked (710 bets): -34.52 units  |  ROI -5.1%

Sized only (104 bets): +7.10 units  |  ROI +9.7%

▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets


Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):

   Grade A: +2.2% (119 bets)

   Grade B: -6.5% (591 bets)

✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed


Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):

   Moneyline: +81.6% ROI  |  6 bets  |  +2.85 units

   Batter Total Bases: +60.9% ROI  |  6 bets  |  +3.65 units

   F5 ML: +35.1% ROI  |  18 bets  |  +4.74 units

   Run Line: +25.5% ROI  |  45 bets  |  +7.39 units

   Batter Hits: +18.9% ROI  |  13 bets  |  +2.46 units

   Pitcher Hits Allowed: +7.0% ROI  |  65 bets  |  +4.57 units

   K Prop: -4.8% ROI  |  107 bets  |  -5.09 units

   Pitcher Outs: -9.8% ROI  |  63 bets  |  -6.17 units

   Batter H+R+RBI: -10.4% ROI  |  333 bets  |  -34.55 units  ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

   Total: -26.9% ROI  |  42 bets  |  -9.29 units  ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

   No HR U1.5: -72.7% ROI  |  7 bets  |  -5.09 units


⚠ Red flags:

   Total: 42 bets, ROI -26.9% — strongly negative

Section T — ⭐ Top Pick Performance

Top Pick = Grade A + 100% book consensus (≥3 books) + raw_diff ≥ 1.5 units. Run backfill_top_picks.py to populate historical rows.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
⭐ Top Pick523040.0%-13858.0%-1.61-32.2%
Grade A (all)1196950058.0%-11453.3%+2.372.2%

Section T2 — Top Pick by Bet Type

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
⭐ Batter H+R+RBI *20200.0%-13657.7%-2.00-100.0%
⭐ K Prop *321066.7%-13958.2%+0.3913.0%

Section A — Headline Summary

Sized only = FULL/HALF/QRTR game bets; All tracked includes unsized props.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
All tracked710371336352.5%-10651.3%-34.52-5.1%
Sized only1045250251.0%-2721.3%+7.109.7%

Section B — Bet Type (all tracked)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Run Line452718060.0%-5133.7%+7.3925.5%
F5 ML1898152.9%+15539.2%+4.7435.1%
Pitcher Hits Allowed654025061.5%-13056.5%+4.577.0%
Batter Total Bases651083.3%-8144.8%+3.6560.9%
Moneyline633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Batter Hits13112084.6%-24871.2%+2.4618.9%
K Prop1075849054.2%-12455.3%-5.09-4.8%
No HR U1.5716014.3%-11052.4%-5.09-72.7%
Pitcher Outs632934046.0%-2822.0%-6.17-9.8%
Total421525237.5%-9047.3%-9.29-26.9%
Batter H+R+RBI333170163051.1%-13357.1%-34.55-10.4%
NRFI *312033.3%
YRFI *2200100.0%

Section B — Bet Type (sized only)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Run Line442717061.4%-4933.1%+8.3930.0%
F5 ML1275058.3%+16138.4%+5.1468.6%
Moneyline633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Total421525237.5%-9047.3%-9.29-26.9%

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | A472324048.9%-13657.7%-7.24-15.4%
Batter H+R+RBI | B286147139051.4%-13357.0%-27.31-9.6%
Batter Hits | B13112084.6%-24871.2%+2.4618.9%
Batter Total Bases | B651083.3%-8144.8%+3.6560.9%
F5 ML | B1898152.9%+15539.2%+4.7435.1%
K Prop | A422517059.5%-13757.8%+1.273.0%
K Prop | B653332050.8%-11553.5%-6.36-9.8%
Moneyline | B633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
NRFI | B *312033.3%
No HR U1.5 | B716014.3%-11052.4%-5.09-72.7%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | B654025061.5%-13056.5%+4.577.0%
Pitcher Outs | A *10100.0%-14358.8%-1.00-100.0%
Pitcher Outs | B622933046.8%-2620.9%-5.17-8.3%
Run Line | A28208071.4%-4229.6%+8.8545.4%
Run Line | B17710041.2%-6539.5%-1.46-15.4%
Total | A *1100100.0%-10150.2%+0.4999.0%
Total | B411425235.9%-9047.2%-9.78-28.8%
YRFI | B *2200100.0%

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (sized only)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
F5 ML | B1275058.3%+16138.4%+5.1468.6%
Moneyline | B633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Run Line | A28208071.4%-4229.6%+8.8545.4%
Run Line | B1679043.8%-6338.5%-0.46-5.4%
Total | A *1100100.0%-10150.2%+0.4999.0%
Total | B411425235.9%-9047.2%-9.78-28.8%

Section D — Odds Band Summary

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
≤ -1501257451059.2%-16862.6%-6.91-5.5%
-149 to -125273147126053.8%-13657.6%-17.45-6.6%
-124 to -105216100114246.7%-11653.7%-24.89-12.2%
-104 to +104281315046.4%-87.0%-3.50-13.2%
+105 to +124261412053.8%+11546.5%+3.8416.0%
+125 to +1491899050.0%+13642.3%+3.3521.6%
≥ +15019117161.1%+18135.5%+11.0576.2%

Section E — Grade × Odds Band

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
A | ≤ -15017116064.7%-15660.9%+1.086.3%
A | -149 to -125653728056.9%-13657.6%-1.41-2.3%
A | -124 to -105271413051.9%-11854.2%-2.12-9.0%
A | -104 to +104 *321066.7%+3474.8%+0.4919.8%
A | +105 to +124 *1100100.0%+11346.9%+1.13113.0%
A | +125 to +149 *321066.7%+14141.5%+1.8260.7%
A | ≥ +150 *321066.7%+15738.9%+1.3855.0%
B | ≤ -1501086345058.3%-16962.9%-7.99-7.4%
B | -149 to -12520811098052.9%-13657.6%-16.05-7.9%
B | -124 to -10518986101246.0%-11653.6%-22.77-12.6%
B | -104 to +104251114044.0%-1311.1%-4.00-16.7%
B | +105 to +124251312052.0%+11546.5%+2.7111.8%
B | +125 to +1491578046.7%+13642.4%+1.5312.3%
B | ≥ +1501696160.0%+18635.0%+9.6780.6%

Section F — Bet Type × Odds Band

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | ≤ -150583127053.4%-15761.1%-7.37-12.7%
Batter H+R+RBI | -149 to -1251668779052.4%-13557.5%-14.21-8.6%
Batter H+R+RBI | -124 to -1051075255048.6%-11854.1%-10.98-10.3%
Batter H+R+RBI | -104 to +104 *20200.0%-10450.9%-2.00-100.0%
Batter Hits | ≤ -15013112084.6%-24871.2%+2.4618.9%
Batter Total Bases | -149 to -125 *3300100.0%-13857.9%+2.1872.7%
Batter Total Bases | -124 to -105 *211050.0%-11854.1%-0.16-8.0%
Batter Total Bases | ≥ +150 *1100100.0%+16338.0%+1.63163.0%
F5 ML | +105 to +124 *422050.0%+12344.8%+0.3210.7%
F5 ML | +125 to +149633050.0%+14241.4%+0.8220.6%
F5 ML | ≥ +150843157.1%+18135.6%+3.6055.4%
K Prop | ≤ -15023167069.6%-15560.7%+3.3214.4%
K Prop | -149 to -125552926052.7%-13757.7%-4.71-8.6%
K Prop | -124 to -105241014041.7%-11753.9%-5.47-22.8%
K Prop | +105 to +124 *211050.0%+12244.9%+0.2412.0%
K Prop | +125 to +149 *321066.7%+12744.0%+1.5351.0%
Moneyline | ≥ +150633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
No HR U1.5 | -124 to -105716014.3%-11052.4%-5.09-72.7%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | ≤ -150261412053.8%-16161.7%-3.41-13.1%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -149 to -12521147066.7%-13857.9%+3.2215.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -124 to -10514113078.6%-11553.5%+6.6847.7%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -104 to +104 *20200.0%+298.5%-2.00-100.0%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | +105 to +124 *211050.0%+11047.7%+0.084.0%
Pitcher Outs | ≤ -150523040.0%-17663.8%-1.92-38.4%
Pitcher Outs | -149 to -1251147036.4%-13958.2%-4.10-37.2%
Pitcher Outs | -124 to -1051679043.8%-11453.3%-2.90-18.1%
Pitcher Outs | -104 to +1041165054.5%+991.7%+1.049.5%
Pitcher Outs | +105 to +1241587053.3%+11346.9%+2.0213.5%
Pitcher Outs | +125 to +149523040.0%+13243.2%-0.32-6.4%
Run Line | -149 to -12517107058.8%-13557.4%+0.161.9%
Run Line | -124 to -1051596060.0%-11553.6%+1.7618.6%
Run Line | -104 to +104 *211050.0%+10149.8%+0.000.0%
Run Line | +105 to +124 *321066.7%+11247.2%+1.1758.7%
Run Line | +125 to +149 *422050.0%+14241.4%+1.3237.7%
Run Line | ≥ +150 *431075.0%+15838.8%+2.9684.7%
Total | -124 to -10531920231.0%-11252.8%-8.74-35.0%
Total | -104 to +1041165054.5%-2821.9%-0.55-5.7%

Section H1 — Game Bets vs Props

Props are always unsized. This section is unaffected by --sized-only.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5)1185560347.8%-2419.4%+0.610.7%
All props combined592316276053.4%-12254.9%-35.13-5.9%

Section H2 — Prop Type Breakdown

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Pitcher Hits Allowed654025061.5%-13056.5%+4.577.0%
Batter Total Bases651083.3%-8144.8%+3.6560.9%
Batter Hits13112084.6%-24871.2%+2.4618.9%
K Prop1075849054.2%-12455.3%-5.09-4.8%
Pitcher Outs632934046.0%-2822.0%-6.17-9.8%
Batter H+R+RBI333170163051.1%-13357.1%-34.55-10.4%
NRFI *312033.3%
YRFI *2200100.0%

Section H3 — Prop Type × Grade

Grades only populate from the run that fixed the tracker bug onward.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | A472324048.9%-13657.7%-7.24-15.4%
Batter H+R+RBI | B286147139051.4%-13357.0%-27.31-9.6%
Batter Hits | B13112084.6%-24871.2%+2.4618.9%
Batter Total Bases | B651083.3%-8144.8%+3.6560.9%
K Prop | A422517059.5%-13757.8%+1.273.0%
K Prop | B653332050.8%-11553.5%-6.36-9.8%
NRFI | B *312033.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | B654025061.5%-13056.5%+4.577.0%
Pitcher Outs | A *10100.0%-14358.8%-1.00-100.0%
Pitcher Outs | B622933046.8%-2620.9%-5.17-8.3%
YRFI | B *2200100.0%

Codebook & Documentation

Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.

Metric Columns

ColumnDescription
BetsNumber of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank)
W / L / PWins, Losses, Pushes
Win%Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator
AvgOddsMean American odds across all bets in the bucket
BE%Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; |odds|/(|odds|+100) for − odds
Net UnitsSum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable
ROI%Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked.
*Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise.

Grade Scale

GradeScore ThresholdConditionsRecommendation
A≥ 10 pts0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradictionBEST_PLAY
B≥ 8 pts0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradictionGOOD_ADD
C≥ 4 ptsIncluding B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAILPASS
D≥ 2 ptsIncluding Model Edge hard-FAIL overridePASS
F< 2 ptsNegative or near-zero edge across checksHARD_FADE

Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.

V2 Framework — Six Checks

CheckNameWhat it evaluates
1Baby LineIs the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge.
2Model EdgeDoes our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D.
3Books AgreeDo ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D.
4MatchupContext factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history.
5Role / InjuryIs the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise?
6Game ScriptTotal-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment.

Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.

Sizing Values

SizingUnits RiskedIncluded in "Sized Only"?
FULL1.00Yes
HALF0.50Yes
QRTR0.25Yes
(blank)1.00 (implicit)No — unsized

Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.

Odds Bands

BandAmerican Odds Range
≤ −150Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout
−149 to −125Moderate favorites
−124 to −105Slight favorites
−104 to +104Near pick-em
+105 to +124Slight underdogs
+125 to +149Moderate underdogs
≥ +150Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout

Section Descriptions

SectionWhat it answers
A — Headline SummaryOverall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side.
B — Bet TypePerformance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only.
C — Bet Type × GradeWithin each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays.
D — Odds Band SummaryPerformance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices.
E — Grade × Odds BandDo A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range?
F — Bet Type × Odds BandAre certain markets only working at certain prices?
H1 — Game Bets vs PropsSide-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only.
H2 — Prop Type BreakdownPer-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets.
H3 — Prop Type × GradeWithin each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props.

ROI Denominator Rules