MLB Betting — Performance Report

Generated 2026-05-02 | Date range: all → 2026-05-02 | 597 settled bets (104 sized)

📊 Interpretive Summary

597 settled bets | 104 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns

All tracked (597 bets): -30.53 units  |  ROI -5.4%

Sized only (104 bets): +7.10 units  |  ROI +9.7%

▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets


Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):

   Grade A: -1.9% (109 bets)

   Grade B: -6.1% (488 bets)

✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed


Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):

   Moneyline: +81.6% ROI  |  6 bets  |  +2.85 units

   F5 ML: +68.6% ROI  |  12 bets  |  +5.14 units

   Run Line: +30.0% ROI  |  44 bets  |  +8.39 units

   Batter Hits: +16.9% ROI  |  12 bets  |  +2.03 units

   Pitcher Hits Allowed: +11.7% ROI  |  53 bets  |  +6.18 units

   Pitcher Outs: -3.9% ROI  |  50 bets  |  -1.94 units

   K Prop: -9.6% ROI  |  92 bets  |  -8.82 units

   Batter H+R+RBI: -12.9% ROI  |  273 bets  |  -35.16 units  ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

   Total: -26.9% ROI  |  42 bets  |  -9.29 units  ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER


⚠ Red flags:

   Total: 42 bets, ROI -26.9% — strongly negative

Section T — ⭐ Top Pick Performance

Top Pick = Grade A + 100% book consensus (≥3 books) + raw_diff ≥ 1.5 units. Run backfill_top_picks.py to populate historical rows.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
⭐ Top Pick *413025.0%-13958.2%-2.35-58.8%
Grade A (all)1096148056.0%-11353.0%-1.89-1.9%

Section T2 — Top Pick by Bet Type

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
⭐ Batter H+R+RBI *20200.0%-13657.7%-2.00-100.0%
⭐ K Prop *211050.0%-14258.6%-0.35-17.5%

Section A — Headline Summary

Sized only = FULL/HALF/QRTR game bets; All tracked includes unsized props.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
All tracked597312283252.4%-10751.6%-30.53-5.4%
Sized only1045250251.0%-2721.3%+7.109.7%

Section B — Bet Type (all tracked)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Run Line442717061.4%-4933.1%+8.3930.0%
Pitcher Hits Allowed533419064.2%-12756.0%+6.1811.7%
F5 ML1275058.3%+16138.4%+5.1468.6%
Moneyline633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Batter Total Bases *431075.0%-5435.1%+2.1754.2%
Batter Hits12102083.3%-24971.4%+2.0316.9%
Pitcher Outs502525050.0%-3123.6%-1.94-3.9%
No HR U1.5 *413025.0%-11052.4%-2.09-52.3%
K Prop924844052.2%-12856.2%-8.82-9.6%
Total421525237.5%-9047.3%-9.29-26.9%
Batter H+R+RBI273136137049.8%-13457.2%-35.16-12.9%
NRFI *312033.3%
YRFI *2200100.0%

Section B — Bet Type (sized only)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Run Line442717061.4%-4933.1%+8.3930.0%
F5 ML1275058.3%+16138.4%+5.1468.6%
Moneyline633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Total421525237.5%-9047.3%-9.29-26.9%

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | A442123047.7%-13757.8%-7.81-17.7%
Batter H+R+RBI | B229115114050.2%-13357.1%-27.35-11.9%
Batter Hits | B12102083.3%-24971.4%+2.0316.9%
Batter Total Bases | B *431075.0%-5435.1%+2.1754.2%
F5 ML | B1275058.3%+16138.4%+5.1468.6%
K Prop | A351916054.3%-13958.1%-2.42-6.9%
K Prop | B572928050.9%-12254.9%-6.40-11.2%
Moneyline | B633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
NRFI | B *312033.3%
No HR U1.5 | B *413025.0%-11052.4%-2.09-52.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | B533419064.2%-12756.0%+6.1811.7%
Pitcher Outs | A *10100.0%-14358.8%-1.00-100.0%
Pitcher Outs | B492524051.0%-2922.2%-0.94-1.9%
Run Line | A28208071.4%-4229.6%+8.8545.4%
Run Line | B1679043.8%-6338.5%-0.46-5.4%
Total | A *1100100.0%-10150.2%+0.4999.0%
Total | B411425235.9%-9047.2%-9.78-28.8%
YRFI | B *2200100.0%

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (sized only)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
F5 ML | B1275058.3%+16138.4%+5.1468.6%
Moneyline | B633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Run Line | A28208071.4%-4229.6%+8.8545.4%
Run Line | B1679043.8%-6338.5%-0.46-5.4%
Total | A *1100100.0%-10150.2%+0.4999.0%
Total | B411425235.9%-9047.2%-9.78-28.8%

Section D — Odds Band Summary

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
≤ -1501046539062.5%-16962.8%-0.44-0.4%
-149 to -125238126112052.9%-13657.6%-19.16-8.3%
-124 to -1051737992246.2%-11653.7%-20.80-12.9%
-104 to +104271215044.4%-1210.4%-4.53-17.8%
+105 to +124211110052.4%+11446.6%+2.3412.3%
+125 to +1491257041.7%+13742.2%+0.010.2%
≥ +15017116064.7%+18335.3%+12.0596.4%

Section E — Grade × Odds Band

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
A | ≤ -15017116064.7%-15660.9%+1.086.3%
A | -149 to -125603228053.3%-13657.6%-5.14-9.3%
A | -124 to -105221111050.0%-11854.1%-2.64-14.3%
A | -104 to +104 *321066.7%+3474.8%+0.4919.8%
A | +105 to +124 *1100100.0%+11346.9%+1.13113.0%
A | +125 to +149 *321066.7%+14141.5%+1.8260.7%
A | ≥ +150 *321066.7%+15738.9%+1.3855.0%
B | ≤ -150875433062.1%-17163.2%-1.52-1.7%
B | -149 to -1251789484052.8%-13657.6%-14.01-8.1%
B | -124 to -1051516881245.6%-11553.6%-18.15-12.7%
B | -104 to +104241014041.7%-1714.8%-5.03-21.9%
B | +105 to +124201010050.0%+11546.6%+1.216.7%
B | +125 to +149936033.3%+13642.4%-1.80-27.8%
B | ≥ +1501495064.3%+18934.6%+10.68106.8%

Section F — Bet Type × Odds Band

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | ≤ -150492722055.1%-15761.2%-4.94-10.1%
Batter H+R+RBI | -149 to -1251427369051.4%-13557.5%-14.76-10.4%
Batter H+R+RBI | -124 to -105803644045.0%-11854.0%-13.46-16.8%
Batter H+R+RBI | -104 to +104 *20200.0%-10450.9%-2.00-100.0%
Batter Hits | ≤ -15012102083.3%-24971.4%+2.0316.9%
Batter Total Bases | -149 to -125 *1100100.0%-14358.8%+0.7069.9%
Batter Total Bases | -124 to -105 *211050.0%-11854.1%-0.16-8.0%
Batter Total Bases | ≥ +150 *1100100.0%+16338.0%+1.63163.0%
F5 ML | +105 to +124 *211050.0%+12444.6%+0.1212.0%
F5 ML | +125 to +149 *422050.0%+14141.5%+0.4221.2%
F5 ML | ≥ +150642066.7%+18635.0%+4.60102.2%
K Prop | ≤ -15021156071.4%-15460.7%+3.6817.5%
K Prop | -149 to -125502525050.0%-13757.7%-6.69-13.4%
K Prop | -124 to -10518711038.9%-11754.0%-5.08-28.2%
K Prop | +105 to +124 *10100.0%+12145.2%-1.00-100.0%
K Prop | +125 to +149 *211050.0%+12843.9%+0.2713.5%
Moneyline | ≥ +150633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
No HR U1.5 | -124 to -105 *413025.0%-11052.4%-2.09-52.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | ≤ -15019118057.9%-16261.8%-1.29-6.8%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -149 to -12519136068.4%-13857.9%+3.5218.5%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -124 to -1051192081.8%-11553.6%+5.8753.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -104 to +104 *20200.0%+298.5%-2.00-100.0%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | +105 to +124 *211050.0%+11047.7%+0.084.0%
Pitcher Outs | ≤ -150 *321066.7%-17964.2%+0.082.7%
Pitcher Outs | -149 to -125945044.4%-13958.2%-2.10-23.3%
Pitcher Outs | -124 to -1051376053.8%-11553.4%+0.100.8%
Pitcher Outs | -104 to +1041055050.0%-00.4%+0.010.1%
Pitcher Outs | +105 to +1241376053.8%+11446.7%+1.9615.1%
Pitcher Outs | +125 to +149 *20200.0%+12943.7%-2.00-100.0%
Run Line | -149 to -12517107058.8%-13557.4%+0.161.9%
Run Line | -124 to -1051495064.3%-11653.6%+2.7632.5%
Run Line | -104 to +104 *211050.0%+10149.8%+0.000.0%
Run Line | +105 to +124 *321066.7%+11247.2%+1.1758.7%
Run Line | +125 to +149 *422050.0%+14241.4%+1.3237.7%
Run Line | ≥ +150 *431075.0%+15838.8%+2.9684.7%
Total | -124 to -10531920231.0%-11252.8%-8.74-35.0%
Total | -104 to +1041165054.5%-2821.9%-0.55-5.7%

Section H1 — Game Bets vs Props

Props are always unsized. This section is unaffected by --sized-only.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5)1085353250.0%-3023.2%+5.016.5%
All props combined489259230053.0%-12455.3%-35.54-7.3%

Section H2 — Prop Type Breakdown

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Pitcher Hits Allowed533419064.2%-12756.0%+6.1811.7%
Batter Total Bases *431075.0%-5435.1%+2.1754.2%
Batter Hits12102083.3%-24971.4%+2.0316.9%
Pitcher Outs502525050.0%-3123.6%-1.94-3.9%
K Prop924844052.2%-12856.2%-8.82-9.6%
Batter H+R+RBI273136137049.8%-13457.2%-35.16-12.9%
NRFI *312033.3%
YRFI *2200100.0%

Section H3 — Prop Type × Grade

Grades only populate from the run that fixed the tracker bug onward.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | A442123047.7%-13757.8%-7.81-17.7%
Batter H+R+RBI | B229115114050.2%-13357.1%-27.35-11.9%
Batter Hits | B12102083.3%-24971.4%+2.0316.9%
Batter Total Bases | B *431075.0%-5435.1%+2.1754.2%
K Prop | A351916054.3%-13958.1%-2.42-6.9%
K Prop | B572928050.9%-12254.9%-6.40-11.2%
NRFI | B *312033.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | B533419064.2%-12756.0%+6.1811.7%
Pitcher Outs | A *10100.0%-14358.8%-1.00-100.0%
Pitcher Outs | B492524051.0%-2922.2%-0.94-1.9%
YRFI | B *2200100.0%

Codebook & Documentation

Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.

Metric Columns

ColumnDescription
BetsNumber of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank)
W / L / PWins, Losses, Pushes
Win%Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator
AvgOddsMean American odds across all bets in the bucket
BE%Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; |odds|/(|odds|+100) for − odds
Net UnitsSum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable
ROI%Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked.
*Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise.

Grade Scale

GradeScore ThresholdConditionsRecommendation
A≥ 10 pts0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradictionBEST_PLAY
B≥ 8 pts0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradictionGOOD_ADD
C≥ 4 ptsIncluding B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAILPASS
D≥ 2 ptsIncluding Model Edge hard-FAIL overridePASS
F< 2 ptsNegative or near-zero edge across checksHARD_FADE

Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.

V2 Framework — Six Checks

CheckNameWhat it evaluates
1Baby LineIs the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge.
2Model EdgeDoes our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D.
3Books AgreeDo ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D.
4MatchupContext factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history.
5Role / InjuryIs the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise?
6Game ScriptTotal-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment.

Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.

Sizing Values

SizingUnits RiskedIncluded in "Sized Only"?
FULL1.00Yes
HALF0.50Yes
QRTR0.25Yes
(blank)1.00 (implicit)No — unsized

Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.

Odds Bands

BandAmerican Odds Range
≤ −150Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout
−149 to −125Moderate favorites
−124 to −105Slight favorites
−104 to +104Near pick-em
+105 to +124Slight underdogs
+125 to +149Moderate underdogs
≥ +150Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout

Section Descriptions

SectionWhat it answers
A — Headline SummaryOverall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side.
B — Bet TypePerformance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only.
C — Bet Type × GradeWithin each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays.
D — Odds Band SummaryPerformance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices.
E — Grade × Odds BandDo A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range?
F — Bet Type × Odds BandAre certain markets only working at certain prices?
H1 — Game Bets vs PropsSide-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only.
H2 — Prop Type BreakdownPer-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets.
H3 — Prop Type × GradeWithin each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props.

ROI Denominator Rules