MLB Betting — Performance Report

Generated 2026-05-01 | Date range: all → 2026-05-01 | 552 settled bets (103 sized)

📊 Interpretive Summary

552 settled bets | 103 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns

All tracked (552 bets): -30.18 units  |  ROI -5.8%

Sized only (103 bets): +6.40 units  |  ROI +8.8%

▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets

Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):

   Grade A: -0.6% (106 bets)

   Grade B: -7.0% (446 bets)

✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed

Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):

   Moneyline: +81.6% ROI  |  6 bets  |  +2.85 units

   F5 ML: +63.5% ROI  |  11 bets  |  +4.44 units

   Run Line: +30.0% ROI  |  44 bets  |  +8.39 units

   Batter Hits: +16.9% ROI  |  12 bets  |  +2.03 units

   Pitcher Hits Allowed: +12.8% ROI  |  51 bets  |  +6.53 units

   Pitcher Outs: +0.1% ROI  |  48 bets  |  +0.06 units

   K Prop: -8.6% ROI  |  83 bets  |  -7.13 units

   Batter H+R+RBI: -15.3% ROI  |  248 bets  |  -37.91 units  ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

   Total: -26.9% ROI  |  42 bets  |  -9.29 units  ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

⚠ Red flags:

   Batter H+R+RBI: 248 bets, ROI -15.3% — strongly negative

   Total: 42 bets, ROI -26.9% — strongly negative

Section A — Headline Summary

Sized only = FULL/HALF/QRTR game bets; All tracked includes unsized props.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
All tracked552287263252.2%-10651.5%-30.18-5.8%
Sized only1035150250.5%-2922.3%+6.408.8%

Section B — Bet Type (all tracked)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Run Line442717061.4%-4933.1%+8.3930.0%
Pitcher Hits Allowed513318064.7%-12655.8%+6.5312.8%
F5 ML1165054.5%+16338.1%+4.4463.5%
Moneyline633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Batter Hits12102083.3%-24971.4%+2.0316.9%
Batter Total Bases *1100100.0%-11954.3%+0.8484.0%
Pitcher Outs482523052.1%-3224.5%+0.060.1%
No HR U1.5 *10100.0%-11052.4%-1.00-100.0%
K Prop834439053.0%-13056.5%-7.13-8.6%
Total421525237.5%-9047.3%-9.29-26.9%
Batter H+R+RBI248120128048.4%-13457.2%-37.91-15.3%
NRFI *312033.3%————
YRFI *2200100.0%————

Section B — Bet Type (sized only)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Run Line442717061.4%-4933.1%+8.3930.0%
F5 ML1165054.5%+16338.1%+4.4463.5%
Moneyline633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Total421525237.5%-9047.3%-9.29-26.9%

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | A442123047.7%-13757.8%-7.81-17.7%
Batter H+R+RBI | B20499105048.5%-13357.1%-30.10-14.8%
Batter Hits | B12102083.3%-24971.4%+2.0316.9%
Batter Total Bases | B *1100100.0%-11954.3%+0.8484.0%
F5 ML | B1165054.5%+16338.1%+4.4463.5%
K Prop | A321814056.2%-13858.0%-1.07-3.3%
K Prop | B512625051.0%-12555.5%-6.06-11.9%
Moneyline | B633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
NRFI | B *312033.3%————
No HR U1.5 | B *10100.0%-11052.4%-1.00-100.0%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | B513318064.7%-12655.8%+6.5312.8%
Pitcher Outs | A *10100.0%-14358.8%-1.00-100.0%
Pitcher Outs | B472522053.2%-3023.2%+1.062.3%
Run Line | A28208071.4%-4229.6%+8.8545.4%
Run Line | B1679043.8%-6338.5%-0.46-5.4%
Total | A *1100100.0%-10150.2%+0.4999.0%
Total | B411425235.9%-9047.2%-9.78-28.8%
YRFI | B *2200100.0%————

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (sized only)

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
F5 ML | B1165054.5%+16338.1%+4.4463.5%
Moneyline | B633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
Run Line | A28208071.4%-4229.6%+8.8545.4%
Run Line | B1679043.8%-6338.5%-0.46-5.4%
Total | A *1100100.0%-10150.2%+0.4999.0%
Total | B411425235.9%-9047.2%-9.78-28.8%

Section D — Odds Band Summary

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
≤ -150955936062.1%-17063.0%-1.31-1.4%
-149 to -125218113105051.8%-13657.6%-21.67-10.3%
-124 to -1051617683247.8%-11653.7%-14.46-9.7%
-104 to +104271215044.4%-1210.4%-4.53-17.8%
+105 to +124211110052.4%+11446.6%+2.3412.3%
+125 to +149936033.3%+13941.9%-0.96-13.6%
≥ +15016106062.5%+18435.1%+10.4290.6%

Section E — Grade × Odds Band

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
A | ≤ -15016106062.5%-15660.9%+0.432.7%
A | -149 to -125583226055.2%-13657.6%-3.14-5.9%
A | -124 to -105221111050.0%-11854.1%-2.64-14.3%
A | -104 to +104 *321066.7%+3474.8%+0.4919.8%
A | +105 to +124 *1100100.0%+11346.9%+1.13113.0%
A | +125 to +149 *321066.7%+14141.5%+1.8260.7%
A | ≥ +150 *321066.7%+15738.9%+1.3855.0%
B | ≤ -150794930062.0%-17363.4%-1.74-2.2%
B | -149 to -1251608179050.6%-13657.6%-18.53-11.9%
B | -124 to -1051396572247.4%-11553.6%-11.82-9.0%
B | -104 to +104241014041.7%-1714.8%-5.03-21.9%
B | +105 to +124201010050.0%+11546.6%+1.216.7%
B | +125 to +149615016.7%+13842.1%-2.77-69.4%
B | ≥ +1501385061.5%+19134.4%+9.04100.5%

Section F — Bet Type × Odds Band

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | ≤ -150452322051.1%-15861.2%-7.51-16.7%
Batter H+R+RBI | -149 to -1251276364049.6%-13557.5%-17.18-13.5%
Batter H+R+RBI | -124 to -105743440045.9%-11754.0%-11.22-15.2%
Batter H+R+RBI | -104 to +104 *20200.0%-10450.9%-2.00-100.0%
Batter Hits | ≤ -15012102083.3%-24971.4%+2.0316.9%
Batter Total Bases | -124 to -105 *1100100.0%-11954.3%+0.8484.0%
F5 ML | +105 to +124 *211050.0%+12444.6%+0.1212.0%
F5 ML | +125 to +149 *312033.3%+14241.4%-0.28-18.3%
F5 ML | ≥ +150642066.7%+18635.0%+4.60102.2%
K Prop | ≤ -15018144077.8%-15560.7%+5.0327.9%
K Prop | -149 to -125462323050.0%-13657.7%-6.08-13.2%
K Prop | -124 to -10517710041.2%-11854.0%-4.08-24.0%
K Prop | +105 to +124 *10100.0%+12145.2%-1.00-100.0%
K Prop | +125 to +149 *10100.0%+12943.7%-1.00-100.0%
Moneyline | ≥ +150633050.0%+20133.2%+2.8581.6%
No HR U1.5 | -124 to -105 *10100.0%-11052.4%-1.00-100.0%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | ≤ -15017107058.8%-16362.0%-0.94-5.5%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -149 to -12519136068.4%-13857.9%+3.5218.5%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -124 to -1051192081.8%-11553.6%+5.8753.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | -104 to +104 *20200.0%+298.5%-2.00-100.0%
Pitcher Hits Allowed | +105 to +124 *211050.0%+11047.7%+0.084.0%
Pitcher Outs | ≤ -150 *321066.7%-17964.2%+0.082.7%
Pitcher Outs | -149 to -125945044.4%-13958.2%-2.10-23.3%
Pitcher Outs | -124 to -1051275058.3%-11453.4%+1.109.2%
Pitcher Outs | -104 to +1041055050.0%-00.4%+0.010.1%
Pitcher Outs | +105 to +1241376053.8%+11446.7%+1.9615.1%
Pitcher Outs | +125 to +149 *10100.0%+12843.9%-1.00-100.0%
Run Line | -149 to -12517107058.8%-13557.4%+0.161.9%
Run Line | -124 to -1051495064.3%-11653.6%+2.7632.5%
Run Line | -104 to +104 *211050.0%+10149.8%+0.000.0%
Run Line | +105 to +124 *321066.7%+11247.2%+1.1758.7%
Run Line | +125 to +149 *422050.0%+14241.4%+1.3237.7%
Run Line | ≥ +150 *431075.0%+15838.8%+2.9684.7%
Total | -124 to -10531920231.0%-11252.8%-8.74-35.0%
Total | -104 to +1041165054.5%-2821.9%-0.55-5.7%

Section H1 — Game Bets vs Props

Props are always unsized. This section is unaffected by --sized-only.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5)1045151250.0%-2922.8%+5.407.3%
All props combined448236212052.7%-12455.4%-35.58-7.9%

Section H2 — Prop Type Breakdown

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Pitcher Hits Allowed513318064.7%-12655.8%+6.5312.8%
Batter Hits12102083.3%-24971.4%+2.0316.9%
Batter Total Bases *1100100.0%-11954.3%+0.8484.0%
Pitcher Outs482523052.1%-3224.5%+0.060.1%
K Prop834439053.0%-13056.5%-7.13-8.6%
Batter H+R+RBI248120128048.4%-13457.2%-37.91-15.3%
NRFI *312033.3%————
YRFI *2200100.0%————

Section H3 — Prop Type × Grade

Grades only populate from the run that fixed the tracker bug onward.

GroupBetsWLPWin%AvgOddsBE%Net UnitsROI
Batter H+R+RBI | A442123047.7%-13757.8%-7.81-17.7%
Batter H+R+RBI | B20499105048.5%-13357.1%-30.10-14.8%
Batter Hits | B12102083.3%-24971.4%+2.0316.9%
Batter Total Bases | B *1100100.0%-11954.3%+0.8484.0%
K Prop | A321814056.2%-13858.0%-1.07-3.3%
K Prop | B512625051.0%-12555.5%-6.06-11.9%
NRFI | B *312033.3%————
Pitcher Hits Allowed | B513318064.7%-12655.8%+6.5312.8%
Pitcher Outs | A *10100.0%-14358.8%-1.00-100.0%
Pitcher Outs | B472522053.2%-3023.2%+1.062.3%
YRFI | B *2200100.0%————

Codebook & Documentation

Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.

Metric Columns

ColumnDescription
BetsNumber of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank)
W / L / PWins, Losses, Pushes
Win%Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator
AvgOddsMean American odds across all bets in the bucket
BE%Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; |odds|/(|odds|+100) for − odds
Net UnitsSum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable
ROI%Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked.
*Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise.

Grade Scale

GradeScore ThresholdConditionsRecommendation
A≥ 10 pts0 FAILs, 0 WARNs, 0 risk flags, no contradictionBEST_PLAY
B≥ 8 pts0 FAILs — or Grade A capped by a WARN, risk flag, or ⚡ contradictionGOOD_ADD
C≥ 4 ptsIncluding B capped by ⚡ contradiction, or Books Agree FAILPASS
D≥ 2 ptsIncluding Model Edge hard-FAIL overridePASS
F< 2 ptsNegative or near-zero edge across checksHARD_FADE

Hard overrides: a Model Edge FAIL caps the grade at D regardless of other checks. A Books Agree FAIL caps at C (or D if model edge is also weak). C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec — Grade is strictly more informative for performance analysis.

V2 Framework — Six Checks

CheckNameWhat it evaluates
1Baby LineIs the line large enough to bet? Very low lines (e.g., HR at 0.5) fail — the juice exceeds any realistic edge.
2Model EdgeDoes our model project positive expected value vs the posted line? Primary scoring signal. FAIL hard-caps grade at D.
3Books AgreeDo ≥ 3 non-DK consensus books lean our direction? Requires ≥ 2 books to be actionable; ≥ 3 for A/B eligibility. FAIL caps grade at C/D.
4MatchupContext factors: pitcher handedness vs opposing lineup wRC+, park factors, platoon splits, head-to-head history.
5Role / InjuryIs the pitcher confirmed as the starter? Are there injury designations or lineup changes that undermine the bet premise?
6Game ScriptTotal-line alignment, weather, bullpen depth, and any flags that could affect scoring pace or game environment.

Each check returns PASS (+2 pts), WARN (0–+1 pts, may cap grade), FAIL (−2 pts), or N/A (0 pts, not applicable for this bet type). A ⭐ Top Pick badge requires Grade A + 100% consensus across ≥ 3 books + raw model edge ≥ 1.5 units above the line. A ⚡ contradiction flag is set when NRFI + Over (or YRFI + Under) are both Grade A/B in the same game — a logical conflict. Contradicted plays are demoted one grade tier.

Sizing Values

SizingUnits RiskedIncluded in "Sized Only"?
FULL1.00Yes
HALF0.50Yes
QRTR0.25Yes
(blank)1.00 (implicit)No — unsized

Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–F when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.

Odds Bands

BandAmerican Odds Range
≤ −150Heavy favorites — high implied probability, low payout
−149 to −125Moderate favorites
−124 to −105Slight favorites
−104 to +104Near pick-em
+105 to +124Slight underdogs
+125 to +149Moderate underdogs
≥ +150Heavy underdogs — low implied probability, high payout

Section Descriptions

SectionWhat it answers
A — Headline SummaryOverall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side.
B — Bet TypePerformance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only.
C — Bet Type × GradeWithin each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays.
D — Odds Band SummaryPerformance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices.
E — Grade × Odds BandDo A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range?
F — Bet Type × Odds BandAre certain markets only working at certain prices?
H1 — Game Bets vs PropsSide-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only.
H2 — Prop Type BreakdownPer-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets.
H3 — Prop Type × GradeWithin each prop type, how grade tiers compare. Use to validate that A props genuinely outperform B/C props.

ROI Denominator Rules