MLB Betting — Performance Report 2026-04-21

Generated 2026-04-21 | Date range: all → 2026-04-21 | 275 settled bets (82 sized)

📊 Interpretive Summary

275 settled bets | 82 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns

All tracked (275 bets): -13.39 units | ROI -5.3%

Sized only (82 bets): +2.42 units | ROI +4.0%

▲ Sizing discipline: sized bets outperform all tracked bets

Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):

Grade A: +13.3% (65 bets)

Grade B: -10.5% (210 bets)

✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed

Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):

Moneyline: +81.6% ROI | 6 bets | +2.85 units

Run Line: +39.8% ROI | 35 bets | +9.36 units

Pitcher Outs: +21.0% ROI | 15 bets | +3.16 units

Pitcher Hits Allowed: +11.8% ROI | 34 bets | +4.00 units

K Prop: -13.0% ROI | 45 bets | -5.84 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

Batter H+R+RBI: -20.2% ROI | 91 bets | -18.36 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

Total: -28.8% ROI | 41 bets | -9.79 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

⚠ Red flags:

Batter H+R+RBI: 91 bets, ROI -20.2% — strongly negative

Total: 41 bets, ROI -28.8% — strongly negative

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
All tracked	275	143	130	2	52.4%	-108	52.0%	-13.39	-5.3%
Sized only	82	40	40	2	50.0%	-45	31.1%	+2.42	4.0%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Run Line	35	23	12	0	65.7%	-29	22.8%	+9.36	39.8%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	34	22	12	0	64.7%	-137	57.8%	+4.00	11.8%
Pitcher Outs	15	10	5	0	66.7%	-99	49.7%	+3.16	21.0%
Moneyline	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
Batter Hits *	3	3	0	0	100.0%	-245	71.0%	+1.23	40.9%
K Prop	45	23	22	0	51.1%	-141	58.5%	-5.84	-13.0%
Total	41	14	25	2	35.9%	-95	48.6%	-9.79	-28.8%
Batter H+R+RBI	91	42	49	0	46.2%	-135	57.5%	-18.36	-20.2%
NRFI *	3	1	2	0	33.3%	—	—	—	—
YRFI *	2	2	0	0	100.0%	—	—	—	—

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Run Line	35	23	12	0	65.7%	-29	22.8%	+9.36	39.8%
Moneyline	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
Total	41	14	25	2	35.9%	-95	48.6%	-9.79	-28.8%

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Batter H+R+RBI \| A	17	9	8	0	52.9%	-140	58.3%	-1.70	-10.0%
Batter H+R+RBI \| B	74	33	41	0	44.6%	-134	57.3%	-16.66	-22.5%
Batter Hits \| B *	3	3	0	0	100.0%	-245	71.0%	+1.23	40.9%
K Prop \| A	19	11	8	0	57.9%	-140	58.4%	-0.22	-1.1%
K Prop \| B	26	12	14	0	46.2%	-141	58.5%	-5.62	-21.6%
Moneyline \| B	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
NRFI \| B *	3	1	2	0	33.3%	—	—	—	—
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| B	34	22	12	0	64.7%	-137	57.8%	+4.00	11.8%
Pitcher Outs \| B	15	10	5	0	66.7%	-99	49.7%	+3.16	21.0%
Run Line \| A	28	20	8	0	71.4%	-42	29.6%	+8.85	45.4%
Run Line \| B	7	3	4	0	42.9%	+20	83.0%	+0.52	12.9%
Total \| A *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-101	50.2%	+0.49	99.0%
Total \| B	40	13	25	2	34.2%	-94	48.5%	-10.29	-30.7%
YRFI \| B *	2	2	0	0	100.0%	—	—	—	—

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Moneyline \| B	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
Run Line \| A	28	20	8	0	71.4%	-42	29.6%	+8.85	45.4%
Run Line \| B	7	3	4	0	42.9%	+20	83.0%	+0.52	12.9%
Total \| A *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-101	50.2%	+0.49	99.0%
Total \| B	40	13	25	2	34.2%	-94	48.5%	-10.29	-30.7%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
≤ -150	54	36	18	0	66.7%	-164	62.1%	+3.95	7.3%
-149 to -125	99	48	51	0	48.5%	-135	57.5%	-16.03	-17.1%
-124 to -105	84	37	45	2	45.1%	-116	53.7%	-10.70	-14.5%
-104 to +104	13	7	6	0	53.8%	-24	19.3%	-0.08	-0.6%
+105 to +124	6	4	2	0	66.7%	+112	47.2%	+2.33	46.5%
+125 to +149 *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+142	41.4%	+1.32	37.7%
≥ +150	10	6	4	0	60.0%	+184	35.2%	+5.82	83.1%

Section E — Grade × Odds Band

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
A \| ≤ -150	12	10	2	0	83.3%	-156	60.9%	+4.43	36.9%
A \| -149 to -125	26	13	13	0	50.0%	-137	57.9%	-4.19	-19.5%
A \| -124 to -105	17	11	6	0	64.7%	-117	53.9%	+2.36	17.5%
A \| -104 to +104 *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	+34	74.8%	+0.49	19.8%
A \| +105 to +124 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	+113	46.9%	+1.13	113.0%
A \| +125 to +149 *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	+141	41.5%	+1.82	60.7%
A \| ≥ +150 *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	+157	38.9%	+1.38	55.0%
B \| ≤ -150	42	26	16	0	61.9%	-166	62.4%	-0.48	-1.1%
B \| -149 to -125	73	35	38	0	47.9%	-135	57.4%	-11.84	-16.4%
B \| -124 to -105	67	26	39	2	40.0%	-116	53.7%	-13.06	-21.6%
B \| -104 to +104	10	5	5	0	50.0%	-41	29.2%	-0.57	-6.0%
B \| +105 to +124	5	3	2	0	60.0%	+112	47.2%	+1.20	29.9%
B \| +125 to +149 *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	+144	41.0%	-0.50	-100.0%
B \| ≥ +150	7	4	3	0	57.1%	+195	33.9%	+4.45	98.8%

Section F — Bet Type × Odds Band

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Batter H+R+RBI \| ≤ -150	22	14	8	0	63.6%	-159	61.4%	+0.86	3.9%
Batter H+R+RBI \| -149 to -125	43	19	24	0	44.2%	-133	57.1%	-9.68	-22.5%
Batter H+R+RBI \| -124 to -105	26	9	17	0	34.6%	-120	54.5%	-9.53	-36.7%
Batter Hits \| ≤ -150 *	3	3	0	0	100.0%	-245	71.0%	+1.23	40.9%
K Prop \| ≤ -150	13	10	3	0	76.9%	-155	60.7%	+3.43	26.4%
K Prop \| -149 to -125	25	9	16	0	36.0%	-140	58.3%	-9.61	-38.4%
K Prop \| -124 to -105	7	4	3	0	57.1%	-119	54.4%	+0.34	4.9%
Moneyline \| ≥ +150	6	3	3	0	50.0%	+201	33.2%	+2.85	81.6%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| ≤ -150	14	8	6	0	57.1%	-162	61.8%	-1.12	-8.0%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| -149 to -125	15	10	5	0	66.7%	-135	57.5%	+2.50	16.7%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| -124 to -105 *	4	3	1	0	75.0%	-119	54.4%	+1.53	38.3%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| +105 to +124 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	+108	48.1%	+1.08	108.0%
Pitcher Outs \| ≤ -150 *	2	1	1	0	50.0%	-174	63.6%	-0.45	-22.4%
Pitcher Outs \| -149 to -125	5	3	2	0	60.0%	-136	57.6%	+0.18	3.6%
Pitcher Outs \| -124 to -105	5	4	1	0	80.0%	-117	53.8%	+2.38	47.5%
Pitcher Outs \| -104 to +104 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-102	50.5%	+0.98	98.0%
Pitcher Outs \| +105 to +124 *	2	1	1	0	50.0%	+114	46.6%	+0.07	3.5%
Run Line \| -149 to -125	11	7	4	0	63.6%	-136	57.6%	+0.58	10.6%
Run Line \| -124 to -105	11	8	3	0	72.7%	-116	53.7%	+3.32	47.4%
Run Line \| -104 to +104 *	2	1	1	0	50.0%	+101	49.8%	+0.00	0.0%
Run Line \| +105 to +124 *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	+112	47.2%	+1.17	58.7%
Run Line \| +125 to +149 *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+142	41.4%	+1.32	37.7%
Run Line \| ≥ +150 *	4	3	1	0	75.0%	+158	38.8%	+2.96	84.7%
Total \| -124 to -105	31	9	20	2	31.0%	-112	52.8%	-8.74	-35.0%
Total \| -104 to +104	10	5	5	0	50.0%	-41	29.1%	-1.06	-11.7%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5)	82	40	40	2	50.0%	-45	31.1%	+2.42	4.0%
All props combined	193	103	90	0	53.4%	-136	57.6%	-15.81	-8.2%

Group	Bets	W	L	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Pitcher Hits Allowed	34	22	12	64.7%	-137	57.8%	+4.00	11.8%
Pitcher Outs	15	10	5	66.7%	-99	49.7%	+3.16	21.0%
Batter Hits *	3	3	0	100.0%	-245	71.0%	+1.23	40.9%
K Prop	45	23	22	51.1%	-141	58.5%	-5.84	-13.0%
Batter H+R+RBI	91	42	49	46.2%	-135	57.5%	-18.36	-20.2%
NRFI *	3	1	2	33.3%	—	—	—	—
YRFI *	2	2	0	100.0%	—	—	—	—

Codebook & Documentation

Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.

Metric Columns

Column	Description
Bets	Number of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank)
W / L / P	Wins, Losses, Pushes
Win%	Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator
AvgOdds	Mean American odds across all bets in the bucket
BE%	Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; \|odds\|/(\|odds\|+100) for − odds
Net Units	Sum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable
ROI%	Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked.
*	Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise.

Grade Scale

Grade	Meaning	Recommendation (v2_rec)
A	High conviction — strong edge, good line value	BEST_PLAY
B	Moderate edge — worth adding to a ticket	GOOD_ADD
C	Marginal / conditional edge	PASS
D	Weak edge — not recommended	PASS
F	Negative edge — lean against	HARD_FADE

Note: C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec, so Grade is strictly more informative than v2_rec for performance analysis.

Sizing Values

Sizing	Units Risked	Included in "Sized Only"?
FULL	1.00	Yes
HALF	0.50	Yes
QRTR	0.25	Yes
(blank)	1.00 (implicit)	No — unsized

Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–G when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.

Odds Bands

Band	Range
Heavy fav (≤ −200)	American odds ≤ −200
Fav (−199 to −130)	American odds −199 to −130
Near-pick (−129 to +129)	American odds −129 to +129
Dog (+130 to +199)	American odds +130 to +199
Big dog (≥ +200)	American odds ≥ +200

Section Descriptions

Section	What it answers
A — Headline Summary	Overall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side.
B — Bet Type	Performance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only.
C — Bet Type × Grade	Within each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays.
D — Odds Band Summary	Performance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices.
E — Grade × Odds Band	Do A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range?
F — Bet Type × Odds Band	Are certain markets only working at certain prices?
G — Monthly Trend	Month-by-month win rate and ROI to detect drift, hot/cold streaks, or model decay.
H1 — Game Bets vs Props	Side-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only.
H2 — Prop Type Breakdown	Per-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets.
H3 — Prop Type × Grade	Within each prop type, grade tier performance. Grades only populate from the tracker bug fix onward.

ROI Denominator Rules

Sized bets: denominator = sum of actual sizing units (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25)
Unsized bets: denominator = number of bets × 1.0 (each treated as 1 unit risked)
Mixed buckets (e.g. "All tracked"): unsized bets contribute 1.0 unit each to denominator
Pushes return the risked amount — they contribute 0 to net units and are excluded from Win%

MLB Betting — Performance Report

📊 Interpretive Summary

Section A — Headline Summary

Section B — Bet Type (all tracked)

Section B — Bet Type (sized only)

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (sized only)

Section D — Odds Band Summary