MLB Betting — Performance Report 2026-04-16

Generated 2026-04-16 | Date range: all → 2026-04-16 | 197 settled bets (74 sized)

📊 Interpretive Summary

197 settled bets | 74 sized | 5+ bet threshold for grade/type breakdowns

All tracked (197 bets): -3.16 units | ROI -1.8%

Sized only (74 bets): -2.10 units | ROI -3.8%

▼ Sizing discipline: sized bets underperform all tracked bets — worth investigating

Grade ROIs (5+ bet threshold):

Grade A: +16.7% (59 bets)

Grade B: -8.9% (138 bets)

✓ Grade hierarchy A>B>C ordering confirmed

Bet type performance (5+ bet threshold):

Pitcher Outs: +56.7% ROI | 9 bets | +5.11 units

Run Line: +38.3% ROI | 30 bets | +7.85 units

Pitcher Hits Allowed: +9.6% ROI | 28 bets | +2.69 units

Batter H+R+RBI: -7.6% ROI | 41 bets | -3.11 units

K Prop: -14.4% ROI | 40 bets | -5.74 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

Total: -27.7% ROI | 40 bets | -9.29 units ★ HIGH VOLUME LOSER

⚠ Red flags:

Total: 40 bets, ROI -27.7% — strongly negative

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
All tracked	197	106	89	2	54.4%	-106	51.6%	-3.16	-1.8%
Sized only	74	35	37	2	48.6%	-53	34.8%	-2.10	-3.8%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Run Line	30	20	10	0	66.7%	-31	23.4%	+7.85	38.3%
Pitcher Outs	9	8	1	0	88.9%	-133	57.1%	+5.11	56.7%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	28	18	10	0	64.3%	-145	59.2%	+2.69	9.6%
Moneyline *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+184	35.1%	-0.66	-32.8%
Batter H+R+RBI	41	22	19	0	53.7%	-138	57.9%	-3.11	-7.6%
K Prop	40	20	20	0	50.0%	-140	58.3%	-5.74	-14.4%
Total	40	14	24	2	36.8%	-94	48.5%	-9.29	-27.7%
NRFI *	3	1	2	0	33.3%	—	—	—	—
YRFI *	2	2	0	0	100.0%	—	—	—	—

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Run Line	30	20	10	0	66.7%	-31	23.4%	+7.85	38.3%
Moneyline *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+184	35.1%	-0.66	-32.8%
Total	40	14	24	2	36.8%	-94	48.5%	-9.29	-27.7%

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Batter H+R+RBI \| A	14	8	6	0	57.1%	-142	58.7%	-0.50	-3.5%
Batter H+R+RBI \| B	27	14	13	0	51.9%	-135	57.5%	-2.61	-9.7%
K Prop \| A	16	9	7	0	56.2%	-139	58.1%	-0.49	-3.1%
K Prop \| B	24	11	13	0	45.8%	-140	58.4%	-5.25	-21.9%
Moneyline \| B *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+184	35.1%	-0.66	-32.8%
NRFI \| B *	3	1	2	0	33.3%	—	—	—	—
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| B	28	18	10	0	64.3%	-145	59.2%	+2.69	9.6%
Pitcher Outs \| B	9	8	1	0	88.9%	-133	57.1%	+5.11	56.7%
Run Line \| A	28	20	8	0	71.4%	-42	29.6%	+8.85	45.4%
Run Line \| B *	2	0	2	0	0.0%	+128	43.8%	-1.00	-100.0%
Total \| A *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-101	50.2%	+0.49	99.0%
Total \| B	39	13	24	2	35.1%	-94	48.5%	-9.79	-29.7%
YRFI \| B *	2	2	0	0	100.0%	—	—	—	—

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Moneyline \| B *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+184	35.1%	-0.66	-32.8%
Run Line \| A	28	20	8	0	71.4%	-42	29.6%	+8.85	45.4%
Run Line \| B *	2	0	2	0	0.0%	+128	43.8%	-1.00	-100.0%
Total \| A *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-101	50.2%	+0.49	99.0%
Total \| B	39	13	24	2	35.1%	-94	48.5%	-9.79	-29.7%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
≤ -150	35	23	12	0	65.7%	-158	61.3%	+2.53	7.2%
-149 to -125	68	37	31	0	54.4%	-137	57.8%	-4.58	-7.2%
-124 to -105	64	31	31	2	50.0%	-116	53.6%	-2.72	-4.9%
-104 to +104	12	6	6	0	50.0%	-17	14.8%	-1.06	-9.6%
+105 to +124 *	2	1	1	0	50.0%	+113	46.9%	+0.63	42.0%
+125 to +149 *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+142	41.4%	+1.32	37.7%
≥ +150	7	3	4	0	42.9%	+173	36.6%	+0.72	16.0%

Section E — Grade × Odds Band

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
A \| ≤ -150	10	8	2	0	80.0%	-155	60.8%	+3.16	31.6%
A \| -149 to -125	22	12	10	0	54.5%	-139	58.2%	-1.98	-11.3%
A \| -124 to -105	17	11	6	0	64.7%	-117	53.9%	+2.36	17.5%
A \| -104 to +104 *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	+34	74.8%	+0.49	19.8%
A \| +105 to +124 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	+113	46.9%	+1.13	113.0%
A \| +125 to +149 *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	+141	41.5%	+1.82	60.7%
A \| ≥ +150 *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	+157	38.9%	+1.38	55.0%
B \| ≤ -150	25	15	10	0	60.0%	-159	61.4%	-0.63	-2.5%
B \| -149 to -125	46	25	21	0	54.3%	-136	57.6%	-2.60	-5.7%
B \| -124 to -105	47	20	25	2	44.4%	-115	53.5%	-5.07	-12.2%
B \| -104 to +104	9	4	5	0	44.4%	-34	25.6%	-1.55	-18.2%
B \| +105 to +124 *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	+113	46.9%	-0.50	-100.0%
B \| +125 to +149 *	1	0	1	0	0.0%	+144	41.0%	-0.50	-100.0%
B \| ≥ +150 *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+184	35.1%	-0.66	-32.8%

Section F — Bet Type × Odds Band

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Batter H+R+RBI \| ≤ -150	12	8	4	0	66.7%	-156	60.9%	+1.19	9.9%
Batter H+R+RBI \| -149 to -125	19	10	9	0	52.6%	-134	57.4%	-1.58	-8.3%
Batter H+R+RBI \| -124 to -105	10	4	6	0	40.0%	-122	54.9%	-2.71	-27.1%
K Prop \| ≤ -150	10	7	3	0	70.0%	-154	60.6%	+1.53	15.3%
K Prop \| -149 to -125	23	9	14	0	39.1%	-140	58.3%	-7.61	-33.1%
K Prop \| -124 to -105	7	4	3	0	57.1%	-119	54.4%	+0.34	4.9%
Moneyline \| ≥ +150 *	4	1	3	0	25.0%	+184	35.1%	-0.66	-32.8%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| ≤ -150	12	7	5	0	58.3%	-162	61.9%	-0.74	-6.2%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| -149 to -125	13	9	4	0	69.2%	-135	57.4%	+2.73	21.0%
Pitcher Hits Allowed \| -124 to -105 *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	-119	54.4%	+0.69	23.1%
Pitcher Outs \| ≤ -150 *	1	1	0	0	100.0%	-181	64.4%	+0.55	55.2%
Pitcher Outs \| -149 to -125 *	4	3	1	0	75.0%	-136	57.6%	+1.18	29.5%
Pitcher Outs \| -124 to -105 *	4	4	0	0	100.0%	-118	54.2%	+3.38	84.4%
Run Line \| -149 to -125	9	6	3	0	66.7%	-137	57.7%	+0.70	15.6%
Run Line \| -124 to -105	10	8	2	0	80.0%	-116	53.6%	+3.82	58.8%
Run Line \| -104 to +104 *	2	1	1	0	50.0%	+101	49.8%	+0.00	0.0%
Run Line \| +105 to +124 *	2	1	1	0	50.0%	+113	46.9%	+0.63	42.0%
Run Line \| +125 to +149 *	4	2	2	0	50.0%	+142	41.4%	+1.32	37.7%
Run Line \| ≥ +150 *	3	2	1	0	66.7%	+157	38.9%	+1.38	55.0%
Total \| -124 to -105	30	9	19	2	32.1%	-112	52.8%	-8.24	-33.6%
Total \| -104 to +104	10	5	5	0	50.0%	-41	29.1%	-1.06	-11.7%

Group	Bets	W	L	P	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Game bets (ML/RL/Total/F5)	74	35	37	2	48.6%	-53	34.8%	-2.10	-3.8%
All props combined	123	71	52	0	57.7%	-140	58.3%	-1.05	-0.9%

Group	Bets	W	L	Win%	AvgOdds	BE%	Net Units	ROI
Pitcher Outs	9	8	1	88.9%	-133	57.1%	+5.11	56.7%
Pitcher Hits Allowed	28	18	10	64.3%	-145	59.2%	+2.69	9.6%
Batter H+R+RBI	41	22	19	53.7%	-138	57.9%	-3.11	-7.6%
K Prop	40	20	20	50.0%	-140	58.3%	-5.74	-14.4%
NRFI *	3	1	2	33.3%	—	—	—	—
YRFI *	2	2	0	100.0%	—	—	—	—

Codebook & Documentation

Reference guide for all columns, grades, sizing values, odds bands, and section descriptions used in this report.

Metric Columns

Column	Description
Bets	Number of settled bets in the bucket (result ≠ blank)
W / L / P	Wins, Losses, Pushes
Win%	Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) — pushes excluded from denominator
AvgOdds	Mean American odds across all bets in the bucket
BE%	Break-even win rate implied by AvgOdds: 100/(100+odds) for + odds; \|odds\|/(\|odds\|+100) for − odds
Net Units	Sum of profit_loss_units across all bets; positive = profitable
ROI%	Net Units ÷ Total Units Risked × 100. Sized bets use actual sizing (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25); unsized bets treated as 1.0 unit risked.
*	Caution flag: bucket has fewer bets than the --min-sample threshold. Results may be noise.

Grade Scale

Grade	Meaning	Recommendation (v2_rec)
A	High conviction — strong edge, good line value	BEST_PLAY
B	Moderate edge — worth adding to a ticket	GOOD_ADD
C	Marginal / conditional edge	PASS
D	Weak edge — not recommended	PASS
F	Negative edge — lean against	HARD_FADE

Note: C and D both map to PASS in v2_rec, so Grade is strictly more informative than v2_rec for performance analysis.

Sizing Values

Sizing	Units Risked	Included in "Sized Only"?
FULL	1.00	Yes
HALF	0.50	Yes
QRTR	0.25	Yes
(blank)	1.00 (implicit)	No — unsized

Props are always unsized and will not appear in sections A–G when --sized-only is active. Section H always shows full prop data regardless of the --sized-only flag.

Odds Bands

Band	Range
Heavy fav (≤ −200)	American odds ≤ −200
Fav (−199 to −130)	American odds −199 to −130
Near-pick (−129 to +129)	American odds −129 to +129
Dog (+130 to +199)	American odds +130 to +199
Big dog (≥ +200)	American odds ≥ +200

Section Descriptions

Section	What it answers
A — Headline Summary	Overall model performance: all tracked bets vs. sized-only bets side by side.
B — Bet Type	Performance split by bet type (NRFI, ML, Run Line, K prop, etc.), both all tracked and sized only.
C — Bet Type × Grade	Within each bet type, how each grade tier performs. Reveals whether A plays are actually better than B plays.
D — Odds Band Summary	Performance across price buckets. Reveals if edge is concentrated at certain prices.
E — Grade × Odds Band	Do A plays outperform at all prices, or only in a specific range?
F — Bet Type × Odds Band	Are certain markets only working at certain prices?
G — Monthly Trend	Month-by-month win rate and ROI to detect drift, hot/cold streaks, or model decay.
H1 — Game Bets vs Props	Side-by-side headline for game bets vs all props combined. Always shows full data — unaffected by --sized-only.
H2 — Prop Type Breakdown	Per-prop-type performance (K Props, H+R+RBI, Pitcher Outs, etc.) across all settled bets.
H3 — Prop Type × Grade	Within each prop type, grade tier performance. Grades only populate from the tracker bug fix onward.

ROI Denominator Rules

Sized bets: denominator = sum of actual sizing units (FULL=1.0, HALF=0.5, QRTR=0.25)
Unsized bets: denominator = number of bets × 1.0 (each treated as 1 unit risked)
Mixed buckets (e.g. "All tracked"): unsized bets contribute 1.0 unit each to denominator
Pushes return the risked amount — they contribute 0 to net units and are excluded from Win%

MLB Betting — Performance Report

📊 Interpretive Summary

Section A — Headline Summary

Section B — Bet Type (all tracked)

Section B — Bet Type (sized only)

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (all tracked)

Section C — Bet Type × Grade (sized only)

Section D — Odds Band Summary