MLB Bets 2026-09-13

Current generated report

Odds data use · 17222 / 20000 requests used (2778 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	168W–124L–0P	58%	-11.59 u	Last 14 days • 292 settled
Grade A	15W–11L–0P	58%	-0.67 u
Grade B	153W–113L–0P	58%	-10.92 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3909W–2476L–8P	61%	-280.48 u	All-time • 6393 settled
Grade A	285W–225L–0P	56%	-13.06 u
Grade B	3622W–2242L–8P	62%	-260.98 u

241 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	A.J. Ewing	0.5	-337	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Abimelec Ortiz	0.5	-312	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Alika Williams	0.5	-502	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Andres Gimenez	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	-326	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Andruw Monasterio	0.5	-271	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Andrés Chaparro	0.5	-316	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Angel Genao	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-344	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Brandon Valenzuela	0.5	-369	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Brenton Doyle	0.5	-519	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Brett Bateman	0.5	-291	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-352	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Bryan Torres	0.5	-266	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Cal Raleigh	0.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Carlos Cortes	0.5	-337	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-461	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Charles McAdoo	0.5	-358	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Chase DeLauter	0.5	-203	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Christian Koss	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Coby Mayo	0.5	-305	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Cody Freeman	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Connor Wong	0.5	-334	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Dane Myers	0.5	-288	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Daulton Varsho	0.5	-321	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Denzer Guzman	0.5	-295	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Dustin Harris	0.5	-476	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Eddy Alvarez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Elias Diaz	0.5	-720	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.5	-254	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Francisco Alvarez	0.5	-371	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Francisco Lindor	0.5	-284	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	George Springer	0.5	-281	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Graham Pauley	0.5	-390	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Ha-Seong Kim	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Hector Rodriguez	0.5	-650	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Henry Davis	0.5	-482	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Ian Happ	0.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-610	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jackson Chourio	0.5	-202	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill	0.5	-426	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-284	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jake Bauers	0.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jake Cronenworth	0.5	-249	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	James Wood	0.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-313	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jeff McNeil	0.5	-362	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jeremy Pena	0.5	-407	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-315	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-250	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jonah Cox	0.5	-422	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jonah Heim	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jonny Deluca	0.5	-421	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jose Altuve	0.5	-348	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jose Caballero	0.5	-309	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jose Siri	0.5	-362	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jose Trevino	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Joshua Baez	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Juan Brito	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-445	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Justin Foscue	0.5	-497	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Kazuma Okamoto	0.5	-279	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-452	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-283	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-297	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Kyle Teel	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-422	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Luke Keaschall	0.5	-215	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Luke Maile	0.5	-680	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Matthew Lugo	0.5	-438	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-390	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-449	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Michael Massey	0.5	-690	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Moises Ballesteros	0.5	-295	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Myles Straw	0.5	-466	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Nathan Church	0.5	-470	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Nathaniel Lowe	0.5	-260	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Nick Fortes	0.5	-518	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-273	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Nick Morabito	0.5	-507	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-332	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-321	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Patrick Bailey	0.5	-395	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Pedro Ramirez	0.5	-288	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Rafael Flores	0.5	-345	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Royce Lewis	0.5	-354	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Ryan Kreidler	0.5	-476	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Ryan McMahon	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.5	-413	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Sal Stewart	0.5	-291	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Salvador Perez	0.5	-561	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-219	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Samuel Basallo	0.5	-277	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Shay Whitcomb	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Steven Kwan	0.5	-216	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Sung-Mun Song	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Tim Tawa	0.5	-441	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Travis Bazzana	0.5	-259	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-318	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Trevor Larnach	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Trevor Story	0.5	-391	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Tristan Peters	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Tyler Stephenson	0.5	-242	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Tyler Tolbert	0.5	-790	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Vaughn Grissom	0.5	-283	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.5	-295	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.5	-272	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Yainer Diaz	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Yandy Diaz	0.5	-246	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Batter Walks	Zack Gelof	0.5	-314	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	K Prop	Chase Burns	3.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	K Prop	Freddy Peralta	4.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	K Prop	Jacob Lopez	4.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	K Prop	Noah Cameron	4.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	K Prop	Tanner Bibee	3.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	NRFI	NRFI	-	114	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Andrew Painter	2.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Bubba Chandler	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Cam Schlittler	1.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Chase Burns	0.5	-200	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Dylan Cease	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Emmet Sheehan	1.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Freddy Peralta	1.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Grayson Rodriguez	2.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Joe Ryan	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Matthew Boyd	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Payton Tolle	1.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Hits Allow	Eduardo Rodriguez	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hayden Wesneski	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Cameron	5.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Hits Allow	Trevor Rogers	6.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Outs	Cam Schlittler	17.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Christian Scott	1.5	-182	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	David Sandlin	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Eduardo Rodriguez	1.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Freddy Peralta	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Gabriel Hughes	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Grant Holmes	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Grayson Rodriguez	1.5	-189	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Jake Irvin	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Joe Ryan	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	YRFI	YRFI	-	130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	YRFI	YRFI	-	114	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	YRFI	YRFI	-	122	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-12	K Prop	Luis Castillo	3.5	-167	-	LOSS	-1.000	Luis Castillo: 2.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-12	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-113	-	WIN	+0.885	Walbert Ureña: 7.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	660	55%	-28.98u	58	52%	-6.30u	309	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	556	58%	+7.57u	35	63%	+2.71u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	751	55%	-52.68u	103	47%	-22.45u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	505	63%	+4.94u	68	75%	+13.79u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	136	49%	-13.29u	5	80%	+2.41u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 28 total candidate(s); season N 660, 14d N 58	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 556, 14d N 35	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 271 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 136, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 6 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 3 actionable / 204 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 204 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 853 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 822 pitcher(s), 3667 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 609 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 22 team(s), 198 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 421 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1182 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 198 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 11 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, Athletics, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, Athletics, Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 371 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 14/14 game(s) with pitching props \| K 28 line(s)/14 game(s); Outs 28 line(s)/14 game(s); Hits Allowed 27 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 22 line(s)/12 game(s); Earned Runs 28 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 119, betmgm 11, bovada_direct 2, fanatics 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 3054 market side(s) checked \| 3054 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 14 game(s) fetched \| 14 with ML odds \| 14 with total odds \| 10 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 204 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored \| 2 above probability threshold \| 11 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 658 \| batter bats 727 \| batter hand splits 138 \| pitcher HR splits 50 \| batter pitch-type 609 \| bullpen HR 30
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 244 batter(s) scored \| 14 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Public Intel Signal: 1 provider(s) configured -- shadow mode
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel QC: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (48/48 uncached queries used)
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel Radar: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (32/32 uncached queries used)
✓	READY	Available	MLB Intel Radar: Completed -- 5 topic(s) surfaced
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 2856 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation ready

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	+114	-138	1.5 (-179)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	+152	-185	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	+127	-154	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	-142	+118	-1.5 (+119)	1.5 (-143)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	+110	-133	1.5 (-192)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+169	-206	1.5 (-130)	-1.5 (+108)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	+104	-126	1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	-117	-103	-1.5 (+141)	1.5 (-171)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+138	-167	1.5 (-161)	-1.5 (+133)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	3:06 PM	+158	-192	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	4:06 PM	-134	+111	-1.5 (+123)	1.5 (-148)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+155)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	7:21 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+135)	1.5 (-163)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

MLB Intel Radar

Shadow-mode public intel briefing; does not change picks or grades

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 59%Entities: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: bullpen game, opener, wind, lineup change
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Chase Burns workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 56%Entities: Chase Burns

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: short leash
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Manual review

Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 56%Entities: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 55%Entities: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Gabriel Hughes workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 55%Entities: Gabriel Hughes

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: opener
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Manual review

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 148 Grade B | 952 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	👀 Watch Signal Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization	Batter Walks	James Wood Over	ANG@NAT	1:36 PM	0.5	0.9	-158	DK Over 0.5 -158 \| exact	85.5%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams Over	ANG@NAT	1:36 PM	1.5	2.6	-127	BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 \| best price	76.0%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz Over	AST@RAY	1:41 PM	1.5	2.5	-138	DK Over 1.5 -138 \| exact	70.2%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (23 play(s))

Batter Total Bases - Nico Hoerner Under

Projection: 1.4Displayed: Under 1.5 -219Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.83Recommended: Caesars Under 1.5 -218 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

K Prop - Freddy Peralta Over

Projection: 5.9Displayed: Over 5.5 +125Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.64Recommended: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.64 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.64

K Prop - Tanner Bibee Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.75

K Prop - Jacob Lopez Over

Projection: 5.7Displayed: Over 5.5 +128Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.5Recommended: BetOnline Over 4.5 -149 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.5

Batter H+R+RBI - Ryan O'Hearn Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - James Wood Over

Projection: 2.9Displayed: Over 2.5 +119Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.75Recommended: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.75

F5 Total - Over 3.5

Projection: -Displayed: Over 3.5 -154Market line: majority 4 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Over 3.5 -154 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4 / avg N/A

F5 Total - Over 3.5

Projection: -Displayed: Over 3.5 -140Market line: majority 4 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4 / avg N/A

K Prop - Robert Gasser Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.62

K Prop - Cam Schlittler Under

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 7.5 / avg 6.93

Batter Hits - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under

Projection: 1.0Displayed: Under 1.5 -273Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Michael Harris II Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.17

Batter Total Bases - Brice Turang Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 0.5 -190Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.1

Batter Total Bases - Chase Meidroth Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 0.5 -220Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.1%Selected market: Over 64.1% / Under 35.9%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.1

Batter Total Bases - Denzer Guzman Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

Batter Total Bases - Will Smith Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Andrés Chaparro Under

Projection: 1.2Displayed: Under 1.5 -184Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.83Recommended: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

Batter Total Bases - Jahmai Jones Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.3

Batter Total Bases - Kyle Tucker Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.67

Batter Total Bases - Salvador Perez Under

Projection: 1.4Displayed: Under 1.5 -175Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Royce Lewis Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.64

Total - Over 8.0

Projection: -Displayed: Over 8 -109Market line: majority 7.5 | avg N/ARecommended: LowVig Over 7.5 -118 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 8Selected market: N/A

Selected line 8 is split from majority 7.5 / avg N/A

Batter Total Bases - Cole Young Over

Projection: 1.4Displayed: Over 0.5 -190Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.1

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (-158) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -158

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
DK	0.5	-158	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-195	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-170	+120	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/123 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/60 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Walks: 35/63 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Walks: 67/123 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.79
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-127) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.481 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 79/141 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/73 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 38/68 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 79/141 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.30
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-138) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.440, xSLG 0.678 (42 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 83/143 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/71 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 83/143 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.34
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (148 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Chase Burns Over 3.5 (-145) diff 123.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+116	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-145	+113	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-
MyBookie	3.5	-153	+111	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 56%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Reds out to end miserable road trip with win against Brewers - Field Level Media - Professional sports content solutions | FLM Tier 3
Reds ace Chase Burns (15-3, 2.73 ERA) will start Sunday’s game, but the right-hander, 23, will be on a short leash as he’s thrown 148 1/3 innings already in his fi
Thank heck the Reds are done with the Brewers for good today | Red Reporter Tier 3
Before the Reds can slink back south to Great American Ball Park to face the Los Angeles Dodgers for the bulk of the work week, they’re going to have to deal with Milwaukee a final
Thank heck the Reds are done with the Brewers for good today - Yahoo Sports Tier 3
Fortunately, they'll be sending ace Chase Burns to the bump to begin this one, though as his most recent outing (3.0 IP) dictated, he'll be on a very, very short
Reds out to end miserable road trip with win against Brewers | Yardbarker Tier 3
Reds ace Chase Burns (15-3, 2.73 ERA) will start Sunday's game, but the right-hander, 23, will be on a short leash as he's thrown 148 1/3 innings already
Thank heck the Reds are done with the Brewers for good today - United States Tier 3
Before the Reds can slink back south to Great American Ball Park to face the Los Angeles Dodgers for the bulk of the work week, they’re going to have to deal with Milwaukee a final

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 123.7% vs 17% min; cushion +4.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.8% / under 44.2%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Chase Burns: K/9 11.4, proj 7.8K over 4.8 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 8.5 outs/2.8 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Doug Eddings — 9.5 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.06x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Chase Burns: 30 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .192 | OPS .800
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.9%, L7 22.2%, season 21.5%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 26.7%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Milwaukee Brewers 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 23.8%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 47%; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 25.3% (6/6); lineup K% 23.7% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 24/27 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.52
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 33.0% vs season 29.2%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: juiced K over -145, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 4.33K, diff 123.8%, books 80%)

⚠ ⚠ High K diff 124% (≥90%) — verify K projection

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 4.5 (-143) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.62 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-143	+112	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-140	+110	-
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	-
MyBookie	4.5	-127	-108	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 34.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta -0.14
Noah Cameron: K/9 8.0, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.5%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Boston Red Sox 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 34%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 24.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143 -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Under 5.5 (-115) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.07, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hayden Wesneski Under 5.5 (-160) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.72 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.07, BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.6%, L7 16.3%, season 18.4%, top-6 17.1% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.1% (6/6); lineup K% 15.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.12 | Season Avg 4.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/8 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-145) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+109	-145	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 63 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .207 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.4%, L7 26.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.8%/63 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

▸ Pitcher Walks — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-182) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.299245122336923 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 4.5 IP (BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.15x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Christian Scott: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .182 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 24.6%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 7.7%/13 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.0%, split 11.0%, L7 9.7%, season 9.6%, BVP 15.4%/13 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.7% (6/6); lineup K% 24.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-182); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — David Sandlin Over 1.5 (-136) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2457664242206326 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.5 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 8.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.3%, L7 19.9%, season 20.7%, top-6 21.2% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.7%, L7 9.4%, season 8.4% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.2% (6/6); lineup K% 21.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/5 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grant Holmes Over 1.5 (-188) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -188 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9893192174691379 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grant Holmes: 90 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .190 | OPS .631
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.2%, L7 22.8%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 22.2%/90 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.3%, L7 4.9%, season 8.4%, BVP 12.2%/90 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 19.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-188) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grayson Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-171) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.982890553917892 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.8%, L7 26.5%, season 21.9%, top-6 25.9%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 11.4%, L7 8.5%, season 9.1%, BVP 0.0%/8 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.9% (6/6); lineup K% 23.7% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Joe Ryan Under 1.5 (-171) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.0680333883113493 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.0 IP (BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 91 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .209 | OPS .578
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 15.9%, L7 19.4%, season 21.2%, top-6 19.2%, BVP 22.0%/91 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 9.5%, L7 7.0%, season 9.4%, BVP 4.4%/91 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.2% (6/6); lineup K% 18.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-171) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-172) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9057213223207745 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.6 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 63 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .207 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.4%, L7 26.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.8%/63 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 9.0%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.9%/63 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-172); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 (-153) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8904398183761297 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 45 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .146 | OPS .539
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 20.0%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 33.3%/45 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.0%, L7 5.7%, season 8.6%, BVP 8.9%/45 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (6/6); lineup K% 20.7% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 12 play(s) (B 12)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Over 0.5 (-200) diff 260.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 61.5% / Under 38.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 56%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Reds out to end miserable road trip with win against Brewers - Field Level Media - Professional sports content solutions | FLM Tier 3
Reds ace Chase Burns (15-3, 2.73 ERA) will start Sunday’s game, but the right-hander, 23, will be on a short leash as he’s thrown 148 1/3 innings already in his fi
Thank heck the Reds are done with the Brewers for good today | Red Reporter Tier 3
Before the Reds can slink back south to Great American Ball Park to face the Los Angeles Dodgers for the bulk of the work week, they’re going to have to deal with Milwaukee a final
Thank heck the Reds are done with the Brewers for good today - Yahoo Sports Tier 3
Fortunately, they'll be sending ace Chase Burns to the bump to begin this one, though as his most recent outing (3.0 IP) dictated, he'll be on a very, very short
Reds out to end miserable road trip with win against Brewers | Yardbarker Tier 3
Reds ace Chase Burns (15-3, 2.73 ERA) will start Sunday's game, but the right-hander, 23, will be on a short leash as he's thrown 148 1/3 innings already
Thank heck the Reds are done with the Brewers for good today - United States Tier 3
Before the Reds can slink back south to Great American Ball Park to face the Los Angeles Dodgers for the bulk of the work week, they’re going to have to deal with Milwaukee a final

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 260.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.48 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.99)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 8.5 outs/2.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.5% / under 38.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Chase Burns: 30 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .192 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.9%, L7 22.2%, season 21.5%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 26.7%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.3% (6/6); lineup K% 23.7% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-200) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 (-115) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.47 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.56)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 69 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .286 | OPS .682
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 25.2%, L7 15.3%, season 24.0%, top-6 24.7%, BVP 20.3%/69 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.7% (6/6); lineup K% 23.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 (-156) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-185	+130	-
DK	1.5	-156	+117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.52 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.5%, L7 21.3%, season 21.8% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 (-163) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-163	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-180	+125	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.10)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 45 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .146 | OPS .539
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 20.0%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 33.3%/45 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (6/6); lineup K% 20.7% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bubba Chandler Over 1.5 (-150) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.17 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.26)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.6 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.8% / under 44.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bubba Chandler: 34 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .207 | OPS .535
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.0%, L7 18.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 21.1%, BVP 17.6%/34 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.1% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Joe Ryan Over 1.5 (-131) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.22 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 91 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .209 | OPS .578
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 15.9%, L7 19.4%, season 21.2%, top-6 19.2%, BVP 22.0%/91 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.2% (6/6); lineup K% 18.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (-125) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.36 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.12)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.7%, top-6 20.7% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.7% (6/6); lineup K% 21.7% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Over 1.5 (-153) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.18 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.42)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dylan Cease: 45 PA | K% 35.6% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .293 | OPS .941
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 22.6%, L7 30.3%, season 24.6%, top-6 25.6%, BVP 35.6%/45 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.6% (6/6); lineup K% 25.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Over 1.5 (-124) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.00 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 1.71)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cam Schlittler: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .176 | OPS .622
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.3%, L7 18.5%, season 22.4%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.5% (6/6); lineup K% 22.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/30 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (-136) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-136	+103	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.65 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.18)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Painter: 51 PA | K% 15.7% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .239 | OPS .727
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.6%, L7 17.6%, season 21.6%, top-6 19.3%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.3% (6/6); lineup K% 21.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Under 2.5 (-163) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+123	-163	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.61)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Christian Scott: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .182 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 24.6%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 7.7%/13 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.7% (6/6); lineup K% 24.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-126) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.13 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.8%, L7 26.5%, season 21.9%, top-6 25.9%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.9% (6/6); lineup K% 23.7% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

▸ Batter Walks — 115 play(s) (B 115)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Trevino Under 0.5 (-800) diff 96.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.02
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 42/43 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/21 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter Walks: 22/22 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter Walks: 42/43 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-800) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~89%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 (-440) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -440 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -440

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -440 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+297	-440	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.08
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 34/36 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/19 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter Walks: 15/17 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 34/36 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08

⚠ Heavy juice (-440); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-502) diff 83.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -502 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -502

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -502 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 71/79 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/41 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter Walks: 34/38 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter Walks: 71/79 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-502) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 82.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.12
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 123/138 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter Walks: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 123/138 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-600) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 125/145 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 62/73 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 63/72 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 125/145 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-600) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-720) diff 81.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -720 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -720

Selected market: Over 17.0% / Under 83.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -720 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/80 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/43 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 34/37 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter Walks: 72/80 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Heavy juice (-720); break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-518) diff 80.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -518 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -518

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -518 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+342	-518	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/98 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter Walks: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 88/98 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-518) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Matthew Lugo Under 0.5 (-438) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -438 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -438

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -438 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+296	-438	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.12
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/8 (88%) | L20 7/8 (88%) | Season 7/8 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.12 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/8 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-438); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Cox Under 0.5 (-422) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.12
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 43/49 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/21 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter Walks: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Heavy juice (-422); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-315) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+219	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 120/146 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 62/75 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 58/71 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 120/146 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-315) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Graham Pauley Under 0.5 (-390) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 47/54 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 21/24 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-390) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.13
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 74/85 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter Walks: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 74/85 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-519) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -519 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -519

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -519 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+343	-519	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+350	-575	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 62/74 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/36 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter Walks: 29/38 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 62/74 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-519) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-790) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -790

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+375	-625	-
DK	0.5	+492	-790	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/71 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-790) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~89%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-561) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -561 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -561

Selected market: Over 20.2% / Under 79.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -561 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+367	-561	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 118/139 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 58/70 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 60/69 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 118/139 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-561); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trevor Story Under 0.5 (-391) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+267	-391	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 45/53 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 20/24 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-391); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-421) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+285	-421	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Heavy juice (-421); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-466) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -466 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -466

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -466 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+312	-466	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 110/134 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 110/134 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-466) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-690) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -690 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -690

Selected market: Over 17.5% / Under 82.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -690 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+438	-690	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/119 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 99/119 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-690); break-even ~87%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-449) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -449 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -449

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -449 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+302	-449	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 124/143 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 63/72 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 124/143 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-449) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-600) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/57 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-600); break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-358) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 27.0% / Under 73.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+246	-358	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 23/29 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 11/15 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 12/14 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter Walks: 23/29 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-358) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-476) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -476 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -476

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -476 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+318	-476	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/94 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/46 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 78/94 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-476) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luke Maile Under 0.5 (-680) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -680

Selected market: Over 17.8% / Under 82.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+340	-560	-
DK	0.5	+430	-680	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/14 (86%) | Season 12/14 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 12/14 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.21

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-680) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~87%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jahmai Jones Under 0.5 (-284) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	-
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/84 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 70/84 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-284); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 24/27 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 16/19 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-497) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -497

Selected market: Over 21.8% / Under 78.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+330	-497	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/90 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 74/90 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-497); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-313) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -313

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+218	-313	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/98 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 77/98 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-313) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-445) diff 65.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -445

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+300	-445	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 16 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.371
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 110/136 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 110/136 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Heavy juice (-445); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-426) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -426 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -426

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -426 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+288	-426	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 20 PA | 11/19 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS 1.337
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 110/145 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/73 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 55/72 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 110/145 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-426); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-362) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -362

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+249	-362	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/131 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/63 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 106/131 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-362) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-461) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -461 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -461

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -461 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	-
DK	0.5	+309	-461	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 115/140 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 62/72 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 53/68 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 115/140 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Heavy juice (-461); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-409) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -409 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -409

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -409 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+278	-409	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/142 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/71 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 57/71 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 110/142 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-409) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-610) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -610 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -610

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -610 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+394	-610	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/132 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 106/132 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-610); break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-362) diff 64.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -362

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+249	-362	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/94 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter Walks: 81/94 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-362) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-357) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -357 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -357

Selected market: Over 27.0% / Under 73.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -357 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+246	-357	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.70x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/96 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 73/96 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-357) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-440) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -440 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -440

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -440 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+297	-440	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.355
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 112/142 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 112/142 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-440) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-368) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+252	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 111/143 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/71 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 54/72 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 111/143 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-368) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Morabito Under 0.5 (-507) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -507

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+337	-507	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-507) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-310) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 24/32 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/17 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 11/15 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-310) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-395) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -395

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+269	-395	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 80/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-395) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dustin Harris Under 0.5 (-476) diff 61.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -476

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+318	-476	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 23/31 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 8/12 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 15/19 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-476); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-441) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -441

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+297	-441	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/92 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 68/92 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-441); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 (-400) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 52/69 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/32 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 52/69 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-312) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+217	-312	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 30/36 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/18 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 16/18 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter Walks: 30/36 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-312); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-452) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -452 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -452

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -452 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+304	-452	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/96 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 80/96 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-452) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-332) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 115/145 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 61/76 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 54/69 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 115/145 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-332) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cody Freeman Under 0.5 (-425) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 26/33 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/17 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 12/16 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 23/30 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 14/18 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 23/30 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-650) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~87%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-422) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .455
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 116/141 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 59/73 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 116/141 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-422) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-470) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -470 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -470

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -470 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+315	-470	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 108/129 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 108/129 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-470) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-390) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -390 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+266	-390	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 113/141 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 58/73 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 113/141 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-390) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-413) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -413

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+280	-413	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/79 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 28/38 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 59/79 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-413); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-337) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 86/113 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-337) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-334) diff 57.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -334

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/72 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/35 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-334); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-326) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -326 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -326

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -326 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+226	-326	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/131 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/63 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 50/68 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 98/131 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-326) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-271) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+191	-271	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/99 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/44 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 79/99 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-271); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-344) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -344 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -344

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -344 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-375	-
DK	0.5	+237	-344	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 115/143 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 60/74 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 55/69 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 115/143 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-344) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-352) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+243	-352	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/129 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/65 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 50/64 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 97/129 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-352) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-314) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -314

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+218	-314	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/98 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 76/98 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-314) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-249) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+176	-249	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 38 PA | 10/37 | HR 0 | K% 23.7% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .668
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/95 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 67/95 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-249); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-283) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+199	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 17 PA | 5/16 | HR 2 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.040
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 87/128 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/64 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 47/64 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 87/128 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-283); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-295) diff 53.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+206	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 62/73 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/37 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 30/36 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 62/73 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-295); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-369) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+253	-369	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/84 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/41 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/43 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 62/84 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-369) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Juan Brito Under 0.5 (-375) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 9/11 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 17/22 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-407) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+277	-407	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/99 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 81/99 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-407); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-400) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 109/139 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 58/67 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 51/72 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 109/139 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-260) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+184	-260	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/115 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 86/115 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-260) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-309) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+215	-309	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/125 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 101/125 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-309) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-319) diff 51.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 32/43 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/23 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 13/20 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-319) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-482) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -482 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -482

Selected market: Over 22.2% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -482 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+322	-482	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/91 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 32/42 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 68/91 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-482) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-266) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+197	-280	-
DK	0.5	+187	-266	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/66 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 25/35 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 51/66 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-266) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-219) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -219

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+156	-219	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 90/128 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/65 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 43/63 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 90/128 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-219) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-250) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+191	-265	-
DK	0.5	+177	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/124 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 98/124 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-250) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Teel Under 0.5 (-233) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+165	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 12/16 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 20/27 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-233) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-490) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -490 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -490

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -490 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	-
DK	0.5	+326	-490	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+350	-575	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 38/47 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/21 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-490) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-254) diff 47.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -254 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -254

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -254 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+179	-254	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 40 PA | 9/38 | HR 1 | K% 22.5% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .696
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 40 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/146 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/73 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 49/73 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 96/146 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Heavy juice (-254); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-330) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+229	-330	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 21 PA | 3/20 | HR 0 | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .391
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/121 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 47/63 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 84/121 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-330) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-288) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+202	-288	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.029 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 82/108 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-288) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-279) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+196	-279	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 98/143 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 50/73 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 98/143 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-279) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-297) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+208	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .536
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 97/131 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 56/69 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 97/131 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-297) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 (-371) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+255	-371	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 71/103 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-371) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-117) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
DK	0.5	-117	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.8% (walk adj 1.27x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/114 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 28/55 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 54/114 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.57

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-321) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+223	-321	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 110/149 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 56/77 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 54/72 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 110/149 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-321) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-265) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+187	-265	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-265) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-273) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+192	-273	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 73/109 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-273); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-337) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 74/106 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

⚠ Heavy juice (-337); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-295) diff 43.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -295 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -295 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+206	-295	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 50/67 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/31 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 26/36 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 50/67 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-295); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-305) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	-
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/120 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 93/120 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-305) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-321) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+223	-321	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/134 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/70 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 49/64 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 98/134 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-321); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-291) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -291

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+204	-291	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/30 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/13 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 11/17 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 20/30 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-291) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-328) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+227	-328	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 115/148 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/73 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 62/75 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 115/148 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-328); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-284) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 61/91 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 33/46 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 61/91 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42

⚠ Heavy juice (-284); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-288) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-325	-
DK	0.5	+202	-288	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 56/70 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/37 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 56/70 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-288) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-348) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+240	-348	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/122 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 88/122 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-348); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-115) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
DK	0.5	-115	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/143 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/71 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 31/72 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 67/143 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.52

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-281) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+198	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 12 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/115 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 78/115 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-281) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-203) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -203 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -203 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+161	-225	-
DK	0.5	+145	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/123 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/65 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 33/58 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 78/123 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-203) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-215) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+153	-215	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/139 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/72 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 44/67 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 96/139 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-215) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-316) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+220	-316	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/74 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 54/74 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-316); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-283) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+199	-283	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/105 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 80/105 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-283); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-272) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -272 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+192	-272	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 12 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.028
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/134 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/67 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 46/67 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 92/134 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-272) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-242) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+171	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/118 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 43/60 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 80/118 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-242) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-354) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+244	-354	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 18 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .722
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 80/113 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-354) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-216) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+175	-245	-
DK	0.5	+154	-216	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 31 PA | 6/30 | HR 0 | K% 9.7% | BB% 3.2% | OPS .426
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/139 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/69 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 49/70 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 85/139 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.53

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-216) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-138) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -138

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-138	+100	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.66
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/133 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/68 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 38/65 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Walks: 65/133 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.66

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-400) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-246) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -246 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -246 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+174	-246	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 97/143 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/71 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 52/72 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 97/143 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-246); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-295) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -295 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -295 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+207	-295	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/92 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 70/92 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-295); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-291) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -291 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -291

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -291 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+204	-291	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/148 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/74 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 51/74 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 96/148 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-291) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-259) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+183	-259	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 72/111 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.48

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-259) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-202) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+144	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/114 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 80/114 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-202) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 (-277) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -277

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+195	-277	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/105 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 77/105 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-277) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-318) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -318 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -318

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -318 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+221	-318	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 12 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.117
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 107/144 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 58/74 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 49/70 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 107/144 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-318) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-345) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -345 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -345

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -345 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+238	-345	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-345); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-118) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✓✓–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.448, xSLG 0.645 (41 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 88/145 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/73 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 48/72 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.72 | Day Batter HRR: 88/145 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.42

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: batting 7, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ F5 Total — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-125) edge 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 3.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 4 at 1 book

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 3.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-130	+110	-
BetUS	3.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	3.5	-135	+105	-
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-104	Selected
MyBookie	3.5	-122	+100	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.20
Bubba Chandler xFIP 4.20
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 116 (team 107)
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 110 (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.13
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)
Away SP: Bubba Chandler (RHP)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-138) edge 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (F5) | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 3.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 3.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-123	+103	-
BetUS	3.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	3.5	-130	+100	-
FanDuel	3.5	-138	+106	Selected
MyBookie	3.5	-121	-101	RecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Payton Tolle xFIP 4.20
Noah Cameron xFIP 4.20
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 101)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-154) edge 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees (F5) | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 4 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is MyBookie Over 4 -109; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+118	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	4	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	4	-110	-110	-
BetUS	4	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	4	-115	-115	-
Caesars	4	-115	-115	-
MyBookie	4	-109	-112	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Cam Schlittler xFIP 4.20
Christian Scott xFIP 4.20
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 119 (team 100)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 110 (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.14
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP)

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-125) edge 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (F5) | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 3.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 3.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-130	-102	-
BetOnline	3.5	-126	+106	-
BetUS	3.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	3.5	-130	+100	-
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-104	Selected
MyBookie	3.5	-122	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Rogers Centre (PITCHER)
Dylan Cease xFIP 4.20
Trevor Rogers xFIP 4.20
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 105 (team 96)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 105 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Dylan Cease (RHP)
Away SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-140) edge 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (F5) | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 4 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is MyBookie Over 4 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+108	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	4	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4	+100	-120	-
BetUS	4	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	4	-110	-120	-
Caesars	4	-105	-125	-
MyBookie	4	+103	-126	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER)
Logan Webb xFIP 4.20
Nick Pivetta xFIP 4.20
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 99)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Logan Webb (RHP)
Away SP: Nick Pivetta (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-132) edge 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (F5) | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-115	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	5.5	-105	-125	-
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-132	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	-106	-115	Recommended

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Grant Holmes xFIP 4.20
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.20
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 112 (team 100)
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 111 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.12
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Grant Holmes (RHP)
Away SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ YRFI — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal Add Signal YRFI — YRFI (+130) edge 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +130

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.509
Grade B: YRFI effective edge 0.0513 after 0.0050 buffer
Trevor Rogers / Dylan Cease announced and matched

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-143) edge 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Kansas City Royals 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -143

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: FanDuel Kansas City Royals 1.5 -137 | best price

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –!✓✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model run margin: +0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+7.76/$100
✓ Cover prob 63.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 7.1% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals away RL 100% (6 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -143 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 101)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 94 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (952 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 26 play(s) (A 1 | B 10 | C 15)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake K Prop — Matt Boyd Under 5.5 (-125) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -125 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.5% vs 17% min; cushion -1.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 7.1, proj 4.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Umpire: Ryan Wills — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 15.3%, season 24.0%, top-6 24.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.7% (6/6); lineup K% 23.3% (9/9)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 3.5 (-112) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-103	-125	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-112	-114	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-120	-
MyBookie	3.5	-107	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 29.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 2/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Grant Holmes: K/9 6.8, proj 4.5K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.7% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Charlie Ramos — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grant Holmes: 90 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .190 | OPS .631
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 90 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.2%, L7 22.8%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 22.2%/90 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 80%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 19.5% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.93
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (-163) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+123	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-163	+127	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-180	+140	-
Fanatics	3.5	-150	+115	Recommended
MyBookie	3.5	-162	+117	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 22.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.79K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.5% / under 41.5%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.4, proj 4.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Sweeper (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Estabrook — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 25.1%, L7 29.1%, season 24.1%, top-6 24.6%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 26.4%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 56%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 29.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.6% (6/6); lineup K% 26.2% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.79
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 (+122) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-110	-118	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-
MyBookie	5.5	-114	-121	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 19.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 11.3, proj 6.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.0% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brock Ballou — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.5%, L7 21.3%, season 21.8%, active roster 24.9%/14 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Miami Marlins 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.62
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 30.8% vs season 27.3%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.8% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (-126) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+106	-137	-
DK	5.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-
MyBookie	5.5	+101	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Matthew Boyd: K/9 6.8, proj 4.8K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ryan Wills — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 69 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .286 | OPS .682
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 69 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 25.2%, L7 15.3%, season 24.0%, top-6 24.7%, BVP 20.3%/69 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Pittsburgh Pirates 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.2%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 23%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 15.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.7% (6/6); lineup K% 23.3% (9/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.53
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Over 4.5 (-129) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-125	-103	Recommended
DK	4.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	4.5	-128	-107	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 8.4, proj 5.1K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Todd Tichenor — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 31.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.8%, L7 26.5%, season 21.9%, top-6 25.9%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Washington Nationals 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 34%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 26.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 25.9% (6/6); lineup K% 23.7% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 (+125) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.64 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-161	+123	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	4.5	-164	+128	-
MyBookie	4.5	-162	+117	-
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+125	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Freddy Peralta: K/9 7.7, proj 5.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Bruce Dreckman — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 45 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .146 | OPS .539
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 20.0%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 33.3%/45 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.5% (6/6); lineup K% 20.7% (9/9); 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 (-156) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 3.75 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 3.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-167	+127	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	3.5	-164	+128	-
Fanatics	3.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	3.5	-167	+120	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	-
BetMGM	4.5	+130	-175	-
DK	4.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.86
Tanner Bibee: K/9 6.8, proj 4.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Sean Barber — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 75 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .188 | OPS .514
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 75 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.9%, L7 23.4%, season 21.0%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 18.7%/75 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Minnesota Twins 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.6%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 52%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 20.0% (8/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.43
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jacob Lopez Over 5.5 (+128) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -149 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -149 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	-
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	-
MyBookie	4.5	-152	+109	-
DK	5.5	+128	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.14
Jacob Lopez: K/9 8.6, proj 5.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 37 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .355 | OPS 1.110
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.9%, L7 21.6%, season 23.2%, active roster 22.8%/14 hitters, BVP 16.2%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Seattle Mariners 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 79%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/24 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.77 vs season
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 24.2% vs season 21.1%, proj adj +1.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bubba Chandler Under 4.5 (-155) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+122	-155	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-
MyBookie	4.5	+108	-149	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.6% / under 57.4%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Bubba Chandler: K/9 8.6, proj 4.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.6 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ryan Wills — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bubba Chandler: 34 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .207 | OPS .535
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.0%, L7 18.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 21.1%, BVP 17.6%/34 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.1% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.61
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 24.8% vs season 21.0%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Logan Webb Over 4.5 (-141) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -141

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-141	+108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-141	+110	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-
MyBookie	4.5	-143	+103	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Logan Webb: K/9 8.2, proj 4.6K over 5.5 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 211 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .283 | OPS .743
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 211 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.6%, active roster 22.7%/13 hitters, BVP 20.4%/211 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; San Diego Padres 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 50%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 16.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.88
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 (+110) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	3.5	+104	-135	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	+106	-136	-
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	-
MyBookie	3.5	+100	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 22.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 7.8, proj 4.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Bruce Dreckman — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Sweeper: 23.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 30% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.6%, L7 16.3%, season 18.4%, top-6 17.1% (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 15.6%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 47%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 16.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.1% (6/6); lineup K% 15.6% (9/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/8 (88%) | L20 7/8 (88%) | Season 7/8 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/8 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 (-129) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-128	-101	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-
MyBookie	4.5	-131	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.86K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 7.2, proj 5.4K over 5.9 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 63 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .207 | OPS .597
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 63 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.4%, L7 26.8%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 23.8%/63 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Texas Rangers 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; L7 team K% 26.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 22.5% vs season 18.0%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 (-118) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-110	-118	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-
MyBookie	4.5	-114	-121	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 4/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Trevor Rogers: K/9 8.9, proj 5.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Scott Barry — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 50 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .664
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.6%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, top-6 19.0%, BVP 22.0%/50 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 56%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.0% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.79 vs season
K% trend: support +6.7 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 21.9%, proj adj +3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (8 books) | consensus 57% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 8.5 (+116) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 8.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 8.36 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 6 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 8.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	8.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	8.5	+128	-167	Recommended
Bovada Direct	8.5	+120	-160	-
DK	8.5	+116	-148	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	+122	-156	-
MyBookie	8.5	+121	-168	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 9.9K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 16.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Dylan Cease: K/9 12.1, proj 9.9K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 33.2% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.259 | top pitch: Changeup (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Scott Barry — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dylan Cease: 45 PA | K% 35.6% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .293 | OPS .941
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 22.6%, L7 30.3%, season 24.6%, top-6 25.6%, BVP 35.6%/45 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.1%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 24%; L7 team K% 30.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 25.6% (6/6); lineup K% 25.9% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.90 | Season Avg 8.41
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 8.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 5.5 (-157) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.62 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 4.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	-
BetOnline	4.5	-164	+126	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	4.5	-160	+124	-
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	-
MyBookie	4.5	-165	+119	-
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+123	-157	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.71K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Robert Gasser: K/9 9.2, proj 4.8K over 5.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 15.9% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Doug Eddings — 9.5 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.06x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 24.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 28 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .435 | OPS 1.326
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.2%, L7 28.8%, season 25.5%, top-6 26.1%, BVP 17.9%/28 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Cincinnati Reds 8/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 25.6%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 34%; L7 team K% 28.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 26.1% (6/6); lineup K% 25.6% (9/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cal Quantrill Over 3.5 (-125) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-109	-119	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-125	-102	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-122	-104	-
MyBookie	3.5	-113	-123	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 11.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Cal Quantrill: K/9 7.1, proj 3.9K over 6.8 IP (season 7.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 17.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 75 PA | K% 10.7% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .900
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 75 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, split 16.2%, L7 18.4%, season 19.4%, active roster 20.1%/14 hitters, BVP 10.7%/75 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 70%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 18.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/30 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +2.03 vs season
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 23.5% vs season 18.5%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 101 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Sandlin Over 4.5 (+132) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+132	-172	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+132	-169	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	4.5	+124	-173	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.7% / under 59.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
David Sandlin: K/9 8.7, proj 4.9K over 5.6 IP (season 8.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Cutter (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Estabrook — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Cutter: 22.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.3%, L7 19.9%, season 20.7%, top-6 21.2% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; St. Louis Cardinals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 45%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.2% (6/6); lineup K% 21.3% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: K L10: 2/5 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Joe Ryan Over 4.5 (+126) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 4.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+126	-161	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	Recommended
MyBookie	4.5	+116	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Joe Ryan: K/9 9.4, proj 4.8K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Sean Barber — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 91 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .209 | OPS .578
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 91 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 15.9%, L7 19.4%, season 21.2%, top-6 19.2%, BVP 22.0%/91 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.3%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 19.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.2% (6/6); lineup K% 18.6% (9/9); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/24 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.04
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -7.3 ppts (recent 19.5% vs season 26.8%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 4.5 (+100) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-103	-125	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+100	-128	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-
MyBookie	4.5	-107	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Andrew Painter: K/9 8.1, proj 4.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Charlie Ramos — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Slider: 32.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Painter: 51 PA | K% 15.7% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .239 | OPS .727
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.6%, L7 17.6%, season 21.6%, top-6 19.3%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.1%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 68%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 17.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.3% (6/6); lineup K% 21.6% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Payton Tolle Under 6.5 (-132) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+103	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+122	-156	-
MyBookie	6.5	+108	-149	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.4% / under 53.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Payton Tolle: K/9 10.6, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 23.6% | xwOBA 0.255 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 17.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.90x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.7%, top-6 20.7% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 23.0%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 45%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.7% (6/6); lineup K% 21.7% (9/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.90 | Season Avg 6.62
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 100 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.90) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 (-126) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
MyBookie	4.5	-133	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Nick Pivetta: K/9 9.9, proj 4.8K over 4.4 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.242 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Sweeper: 25.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 44 PA | K% 29.5% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .770
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.7%, L7 23.5%, season 21.4%, active roster 23.2%/14 hitters, BVP 29.5%/44 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.20
Prop trend: K L10: 2/5 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 (-144) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 6.93 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 6.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-155	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	6.5	-166	+130	-
BetMGM	7.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	7.5	+128	-167	-
DK	7.5	+113	-144	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	7.5	+121	-168	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 4.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.67
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.0, proj 7.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.9% | put-away% 24.7% | xwOBA 0.265 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cam Schlittler: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .176 | OPS .622
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.3%, L7 18.5%, season 22.4%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 22.6%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 23%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 18.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.5% (6/6); lineup K% 22.4% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/30 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.30 | Season Avg 7.33
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eury Perez Over 5.5 (+107) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -175 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -175 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-175	+130	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+107	-136	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-
MyBookie	5.5	+121	-168	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Eury Perez: K/9 9.4, proj 5.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.4% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Slider (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brock Ballou — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Eury Pérez: 17 PA | K% 35.3% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .125 | OPS .301
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.3%, L7 21.2%, season 20.6%, top-6 17.2%, BVP 35.3%/17 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.9%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 52%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 21.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.2% (5/6); lineup K% 18.0% (8/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.8 ppts (recent 20.0% vs season 25.8%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Christian Scott Under 5.5 (+106) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 5.5 +106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+160	-225	-
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-114	-114	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-135	+106	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	-136	+106	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+105	-
MyBookie	5.5	-117	-117	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.2% / under 45.8%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Christian Scott: K/9 10.8, proj 5.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Christian Scott: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .182 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 24.6%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 7.7%/13 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; New York Yankees 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 24.6%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.7% (6/6); lineup K% 24.5% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/21 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 4.5 (+105) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+105	-134	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-
MyBookie	4.5	-106	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Bryce Miller: K/9 9.0, proj 4.6K over 5.1 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 54 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .959
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.6%, L7 20.8%, season 22.4%, active roster 22.3%/14 hitters, BVP 20.4%/54 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 21%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 20.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 139 play(s) (A 10 | B 10 | C 119)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-123) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
DK	0.5	-123	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	-110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .833
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/143 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/72 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 41/71 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 74/143 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.64

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-509) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -509 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -509

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -509 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+337	-509	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/123 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/61 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 101/123 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment, Availability — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-509) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-430) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -430

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+290	-430	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .523
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/112 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 88/112 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment, Availability — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-430) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-650) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .411
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 105/146 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/72 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 53/74 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 105/146 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-650); break-even ~87%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-361) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+248	-361	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 117/137 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 59/74 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 117/137 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-361); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-445) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -445

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+300	-445	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .764
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 105/137 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/66 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 56/71 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 105/137 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-445); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Konnor Griffin Under 0.5 (-380) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -380

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+260	-380	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/67 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/36 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 22/31 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 49/67 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-380); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-343) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -343

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+237	-343	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 103/142 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/72 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 50/70 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 103/142 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-343); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-456) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -456

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+306	-456	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/98 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 71/98 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-456); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-337) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 112/146 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 54/73 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 58/73 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 112/146 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-337); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-116) diff 85.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-112	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-116	-119	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 63/129 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/64 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 34/65 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Walks: 63/129 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (-114) diff 81.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
DK	0.5	-114	-121	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.68
Base projection 0.68 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 30.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 1.433
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 76/149 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/75 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 37/74 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 76/149 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.68

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Aaron Judge Over 0.5 (-119) diff 63.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	-119	-116	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.68
Base projection 0.68 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 30/63 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/30 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 16/33 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 30/63 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.68

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-246) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -245; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+174	-246	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/75 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/38 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 57/75 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-319) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+221	-319	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/77 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/34 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 54/77 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-206) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+147	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 74/102 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Max Muncy Over 0.5 (-127) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -127

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
DK	0.5	-127	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/136 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/70 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 33/66 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 56/136 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-265) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -265; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+187	-265	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 41/59 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/25 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 24/34 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Juan Soto Over 0.5 (-109) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
DK	0.5	-109	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/97 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/45 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter Walks: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 50/97 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 (-242) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+172	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .536
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/86 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/40 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 29/46 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 53/86 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-102) diff 81.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -102

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.72
Base projection 0.72 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.8% (walk adj 1.27x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/137 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.72
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/75 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.72 | Away Batter Walks: 32/62 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71 | Day Batter Walks: 71/137 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.72

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (+104) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+108	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+104	-144	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/131 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/66 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter Walks: 21/65 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 55/131 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.58

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 (-317) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+220	-317	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.70x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 3 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/94 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/44 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 66/94 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 (-118) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-118	-116	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.8% (walk adj 1.27x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/104 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Walks: 17/53 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 43/104 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.59

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pavin Smith Under 0.5 (-293) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+205	-293	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/17 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 8/12 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 21/29 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-309) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+216	-309	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/90 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 30/42 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 70/90 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-368) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+253	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 110/145 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/75 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 110/145 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-309) diff 47.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+215	-309	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 79/106 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-371) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+255	-371	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 34/45 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/21 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 16/24 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 34/45 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-332) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/121 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 92/121 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-349) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -349 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -349

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -349 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+241	-349	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/79 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/42 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 25/37 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 57/79 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-332) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .661
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/63 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/34 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 16/29 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 40/63 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+113) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+116	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+113	-157	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/147 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/73 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 34/74 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 65/147 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Danny Jansen Under 0.5 (-253) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+167	-230	-
DK	0.5	+179	-253	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .697
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 44/55 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/25 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Emmanuel Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-366) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -366

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+251	-366	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-240) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+170	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 93/126 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 93/126 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-313) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -313

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+218	-313	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 105/140 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/67 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 56/73 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 105/140 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-250) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+177	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 93/140 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/69 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 44/71 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 93/140 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-281) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 106/147 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 58/75 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 106/147 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-272) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -272 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+191	-272	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 100/141 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/71 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 49/70 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 100/141 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-384) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -384 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -384

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -384 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+263	-384	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 106/131 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/64 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 54/67 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 106/131 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-368) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-390	-
DK	0.5	+253	-368	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 38/50 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/30 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 19/20 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-292) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+204	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/109 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/109 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-250) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 98/142 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/71 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 47/71 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 98/142 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nate Eaton Under 0.5 (-328) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+228	-328	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 10/15 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Samad Taylor Under 0.5 (-354) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+244	-354	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 24/35 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 11/16 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 13/19 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 24/35 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-391) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+267	-391	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.050
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 98/139 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/70 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 47/69 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 98/139 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-284) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -284 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -284 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+199	-284	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 33 PA | 7/32 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.0% | OPS .617
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 87/141 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/69 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 38/72 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 87/141 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-203) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -203 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -203 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+145	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 35/51 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 14/25 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-354) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+244	-354	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 102/143 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/71 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 47/72 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 102/143 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-228) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+162	-228	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.8% (walk adj 1.27x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 48/62 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/34 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 20/28 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-311) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -311

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+217	-311	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .615
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/131 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/66 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 46/65 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 94/131 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-305) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-325	-
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 95/142 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/71 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 47/71 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 95/142 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-258) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+182	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/101 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 78/101 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-180) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 78/117 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-338) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+234	-338	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.8% (walk adj 1.27x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 114/148 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/74 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 57/74 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 114/148 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (+140) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+150	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+140	-196	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/149 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/74 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 31/75 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 57/149 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.52

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (+110) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	-
DK	0.5	+110	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/145 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/75 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 35/70 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.71 | Day Batter Walks: 73/145 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.69

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-317) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -317 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -317 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+221	-317	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/111 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 84/111 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Jung Under 0.5 (-292) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+205	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/93 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/42 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 66/93 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Call Under 0.5 (-184) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -184

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+132	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 61/81 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/40 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 32/41 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 61/81 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-290) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/112 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 74/112 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-339) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -339

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+235	-339	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/145 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 58/73 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 106/145 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-391) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+267	-391	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 84/134 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/67 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 42/67 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 84/134 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-211) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -211

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+151	-211	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/81 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 24/38 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 56/81 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-230) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+164	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 44/63 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 15/30 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 44/63 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-230) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+164	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 11 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.303
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/118 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 38/61 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 74/118 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-236) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+168	-236	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/113 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 77/113 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-366) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -366

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+252	-366	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 13 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .413
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/144 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/73 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 48/71 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 100/144 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-197) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -197

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+141	-197	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/111 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 71/111 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-348) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+240	-348	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.069
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 101/142 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 48/75 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 101/142 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Moore Under 0.5 (-228) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+180	-250	-
DK	0.5	+162	-228	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/25 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 11/13 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 20/25 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-276) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+194	-276	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 51 PA | 13/46 | HR 1 | K% 21.6% | BB% 7.8% | OPS .703
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 51 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 86/144 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/73 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 42/71 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 86/144 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (+151) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+151	-212	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 60/146 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/74 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 30/72 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 60/146 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+101) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	-
DK	0.5	+101	-139	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/140 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/72 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 27/68 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 58/140 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-291) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -291 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -291

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -291 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+204	-291	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 104/142 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/71 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 51/71 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 104/142 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-361) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+248	-361	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.8% (walk adj 1.27x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/139 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/69 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 52/70 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 101/139 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-206) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+147	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 12 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.361
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 96/141 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/71 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 46/70 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 96/141 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yohandy Morales Under 0.5 (-333) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -333 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -333

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -333 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+231	-333	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/8 (100%) | L20 8/8 (100%) | Season 8/8 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/8 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-351) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -351

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+242	-351	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/130 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/70 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 34/60 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 77/130 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-216) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 70/114 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/58 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 70/114 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-217) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+155	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.8% (walk adj 1.27x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/133 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 98/133 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-220) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+150	-205	-
DK	0.5	+157	-220	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/93 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/46 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 68/93 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-225) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+160	-225	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/126 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/68 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 85/126 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-236) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+168	-236	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/78 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/43 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 27/35 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 47/78 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+120) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+120	-166	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/141 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/67 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 23/74 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 49/141 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-150) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 57/88 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/46 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 29/42 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 57/88 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-242) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+172	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/82 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/42 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 20/40 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 44/82 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-305) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/125 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/63 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 40/62 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 87/125 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-270) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+190	-270	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/132 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/65 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 49/67 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 96/132 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Madrigal Under 0.5 (-346) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -346 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -346 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 12/17 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-193) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -193

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+148	-200	-
DK	0.5	+138	-193	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/149 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/77 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 47/72 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 98/149 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-272) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -272 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [IL] Xavier Edwards -- Injured 10-Day
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/137 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/69 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/68 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 85/137 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Xavier Edwards -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leonardo Bernal Under 0.5 (-301) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -301

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+210	-301	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-294) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/77 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/39 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 23/38 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 51/77 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Walker Jenkins Under 0.5 (-297) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -265; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+189	-265	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+208	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 7/13 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-341) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+236	-341	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/148 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/74 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 50/74 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 99/148 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-247) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+175	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.8% (walk adj 1.27x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/138 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/70 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 48/68 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 97/138 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-200) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+153	-209	-
DK	0.5	+143	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/133 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/71 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 39/62 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 86/133 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-195) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -195 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+140	-195	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 70/108 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 (+125) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+129	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+125	-174	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.41x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.225
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/147 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/74 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 26/73 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 52/147 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-106) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -106

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
DK	0.5	-106	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/138 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/75 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 26/63 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 64/138 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Freeland Under 0.5 (-203) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+146	-203	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 61/83 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/44 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 27/39 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 61/83 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-234) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+166	-234	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/129 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/64 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 44/65 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 79/129 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-229) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+163	-229	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/145 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/73 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 42/72 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 87/145 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-307) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+214	-307	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/143 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/72 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 41/71 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 85/143 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Turner Hill Under 0.5 (-290) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+203	-290	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 6/13 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 7/10 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 13/23 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-149) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+129	-173	-
DK	0.5	+108	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/84 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 33/43 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 61/84 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 (-113) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	-
DK	0.5	-113	-122	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/141 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/72 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 28/69 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 51/141 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Arroyo Under 0.5 (-350) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.8% (walk adj 1.27x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.33 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/3 under 0.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-214) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+153	-214	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 93/144 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 45/74 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 93/144 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-220) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+157	-220	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/97 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/46 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 61/97 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-115) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-115	-120	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.73
Base projection 0.73 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.73
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 61/113 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-191) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -191

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+137	-191	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 81/143 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/75 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 42/68 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 81/143 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-184) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -184

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+134	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+132	-184	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 87/142 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/73 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 40/69 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 87/142 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-267) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -267

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+188	-267	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 67/96 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 67/96 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-265) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+187	-265	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-199) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -199 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -199

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -199 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+154	-209	-
DK	0.5	+142	-199	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 99/141 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/73 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 49/68 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 99/141 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 (+163) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +163

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-230	-
DK	0.5	+163	-230	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 43/121 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/60 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 20/61 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 43/121 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-183) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -183

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+124	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+131	-183	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/110 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 78/110 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gary Sanchez Over 0.5 (-132) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -132

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	-
DK	0.5	-132	-105	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/80 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/38 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 18/42 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 36/80 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-222) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+158	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/142 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/70 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 49/72 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 95/142 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 (+105) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	-
DK	0.5	+105	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 10.8% (walk adj 1.27x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/141 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/69 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 23/72 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 50/141 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+176) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +176

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+176	-249	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 17 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .435
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 65/149 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/72 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 29/77 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 65/149 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Will Smith Over 0.5 (+116) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +116

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+118	-159	-
DK	0.5	+116	-161	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 23/63 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/37 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 10/26 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 23/63 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 (+151) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+151	-211	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/148 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/73 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 32/75 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 55/148 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-195) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+140	-195	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 78/146 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/73 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 41/73 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 78/146 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (+130) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +131 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +131 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+130	-180	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/149 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/75 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 31/74 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 59/149 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josue De Paula Under 0.5 (-170) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+124	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+122	-170	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-208) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -208

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+148	-208	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 29/53 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/25 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 15/28 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 29/53 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-179) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+129	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 90/148 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/73 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 42/75 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 90/148 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-263) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+186	-263	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 93/148 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/74 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 47/74 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 93/148 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-251) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+178	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/89 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 21/48 under 0.5 (44%), avg 0.69 | Day Batter Walks: 52/89 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Roman Anthony Over 0.5 (+124) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.3% / Under 58.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+124	-170	-
DK	0.5	+124	-173	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 20/43 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/22 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 11/21 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 20/43 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-219) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -219 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -219

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -219 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+155	-225	-
DK	0.5	+156	-219	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/120 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 36/61 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 65/120 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-216) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+154	-216	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/96 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/51 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 27/45 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 57/96 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-226) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+161	-226	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .125
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 79/144 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/71 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 40/73 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 79/144 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 (+141) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+141	-197	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/103 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 20/51 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 46/103 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-230) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+163	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/143 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/69 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 50/74 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 98/143 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 201 play(s) (A 3 | B 38 | C 160)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-122) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.48
Base projection 2.48 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.379, xSLG 0.506 (77 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 88/149 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/74 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 43/75 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 88/149 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Matchup, Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-141) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-141	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.408, xSLG 0.628 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 83/148 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/74 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 45/74 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 83/148 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ HRR trust gate: L10 HRR over-rate 40%, consensus lean 67%, raw gap 1.1, weak consensus 67% without extra raw cushion -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-119) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.402, xSLG 0.513 (96 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 30.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 1.433
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/149 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/75 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 41/74 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 80/149 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.09

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leonardo Bernal Over 1.5 (-102) diff 117.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 3.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 117.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 3.18
Base projection 3.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 10/11 (91%) | Season 10/11 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HRR: 10/11 over 1.5 (91%), avg 3.18

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-101) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.450, xSLG 0.644 (179 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/129 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.24 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/64 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 40/65 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 78/129 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.36

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (+122) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.43
Base projection 2.43 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.429 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/86 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/40 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 27/46 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 50/86 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.43

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-144) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.455, xSLG 0.710 (41 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 75/146 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/73 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 33/73 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.01 | Day Batter HRR: 75/146 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-140) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-140	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Base projection 2.58 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.349 (65 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/114 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 72/114 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-125) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.342 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/126 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 46/68 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.63 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 76/126 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+140) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.360 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/98 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.78 | Away Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 45/98 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-137) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.430 (103 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/143 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.49 | Away Batter HRR: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 68/143 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-138) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.537 (75 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 80/149 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/77 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 39/72 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 80/149 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-146) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.503 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 40 PA | 9/38 | HR 1 | K% 22.5% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .696
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 40 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 83/146 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/73 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 44/73 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 83/146 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Aaron Judge Over 1.5 (-122) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.550 (27 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 34/63 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.57 | Away Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 34/63 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-110) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.444, xSLG 0.614 (31 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 78/144 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/70 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 39/74 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 78/144 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-125) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.340 (52 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/141 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 38/74 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 72/141 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-132) diff 51.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-132	+100	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.379 (69 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/148 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 43/74 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 42/74 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 85/148 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-123) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.392 (77 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .455
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 79/141 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 47/68 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 32/73 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 79/141 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-116) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.391 (91 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/148 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/73 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 33/75 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 71/148 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-128) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.288 (104 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 12 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.117
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 70/144 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/74 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 70/144 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-134) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.327, xSLG 0.430 (71 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/141 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/72 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 42/69 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 71/141 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (-119) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.210, xSLG 0.237 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 47/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 47/113 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-143) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/96 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 49/96 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-133) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.308 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 49/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-113) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.511 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/131 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 62/131 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-119) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.385 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/148 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/73 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 42/75 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 71/148 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-126) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.193 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/128 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 28/63 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 61/128 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-125) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.311 (98 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/143 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 40/74 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 73/143 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-112) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.417, xSLG 0.537 (143 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/130 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/70 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 74/130 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-117) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 60/123 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 60/123 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-134) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.369 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 12 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.028
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/134 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/67 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 33/67 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 63/134 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-117) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.208, xSLG 0.246 (106 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/142 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/71 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 72/142 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-128) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.374 (58 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/129 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 61/129 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-107) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.376 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/143 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/70 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 39/73 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 72/143 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-117) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-117	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.418 (85 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/142 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 65/142 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-120) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.248, xSLG 0.264 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/139 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/72 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 37/67 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 73/139 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-121) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.312 (55 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/105 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 47/105 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 2.5 (+119) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +119; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Recommended
DK	2.5	+119	-158	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.85 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
Base projection 2.46 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.372 (65 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 50/123 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/60 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 22/63 over 2.5 (35%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 50/123 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-115) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.203, xSLG 0.256 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/140 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/72 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 36/68 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 75/140 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-118) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.278 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 12 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/62 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 58/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Over 1.5 (-121) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.310 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 31 PA | 6/30 | HR 0 | K% 9.7% | BB% 3.2% | OPS .426
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/139 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 32/70 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 65/139 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Arroyo Over 1.5 (+100) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.67
Base projection 2.67 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.67 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/3 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-143) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.43
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.521, xSLG 0.820 (49 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 77/145 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 50/75 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/70 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 77/145 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.43

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+113) diff 62.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.473 (167 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/148 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/74 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 42/74 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 78/148 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-116) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.396, xSLG 0.492 (145 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 11 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.303
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/118 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 43/61 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 72/118 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+110) diff 60.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.439 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/131 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/66 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 38/65 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 74/131 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-110) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.592, xSLG 1.016 (20 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/137 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/74 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 68/137 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-160) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.482 (85 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/143 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 37/71 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 70/143 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (-106) diff 53.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/13 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 9/17 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 18/30 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jahmai Jones Under 1.5 (-139) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.74
Base projection 0.74 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.248, xSLG 0.320 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/84 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/42 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter HRR: 36/42 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter HRR: 65/84 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-108) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.437 (87 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/138 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/75 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 37/63 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 82/138 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-113) diff 51.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.438 (108 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/145 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 50/76 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.46 | Away Batter HRR: 40/69 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 90/145 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-123) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.599 (10 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 3 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/94 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/44 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 53/94 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+103) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.428 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/146 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/74 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.99 | Away Batter HRR: 39/72 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 78/146 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+120) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.449 (64 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .764
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 74/137 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/66 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 41/71 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 74/137 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (-104) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-128	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.469, xSLG 0.743 (103 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 48/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joshua Baez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Away Batter HRR: 10/19 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-103) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.181, xSLG 0.199 (36 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/43 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 52/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-127) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.414 (82 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 20 PA | 11/19 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS 1.337
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/145 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/73 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 35/72 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 73/145 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-129) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.489 (179 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 17 PA | 5/16 | HR 2 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.040
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/128 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/64 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 32/64 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 68/128 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+111) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.255 (88 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 17 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .435
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/149 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 44/72 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 40/77 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 84/149 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-111) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.353 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/82 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/42 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.55 | Away Batter HRR: 16/40 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 40/82 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Konnor Griffin Over 1.5 (+104) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.367 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 36/67 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/36 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 15/31 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 36/67 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Call Under 1.5 (-156) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.99
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.276 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 58/81 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/40 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter HRR: 30/41 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter HRR: 58/81 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Rojas Under 1.5 (-156) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.490 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 68/94 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/47 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter HRR: 33/47 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter HRR: 68/94 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Siri Under 1.5 (-136) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.05
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.329 (25 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/94 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/52 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter HRR: 25/42 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 67/94 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-110) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.366 (101 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 77/142 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/71 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 40/71 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 77/142 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-142) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+110	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.399 (87 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/141 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/69 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99 | Away Batter HRR: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 72/141 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (-108) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.327, xSLG 0.358 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/93 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 over 1.5 (71%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 54/93 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+114) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.528 (64 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 82/149 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/75 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 42/74 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 82/149 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-125) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.399 (74 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/137 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 43/73 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 74/137 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (-118) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.175, xSLG 0.262 (27 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/121 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 32/61 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 68/121 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+110) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.447 (82 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/133 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/68 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 62/133 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+114) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.476 (62 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.069
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/142 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/67 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 39/75 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 66/142 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-126) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.429 (194 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 72/143 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 72/143 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-120) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.445 (97 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 75/145 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/73 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 75/145 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+101) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	+101	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.485 (71 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/136 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 33/66 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 63/136 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-113) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.403 (65 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/141 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/73 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 72/141 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-106) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-106	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.402 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/149 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/77 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 35/72 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 74/149 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-104) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.181, xSLG 0.213 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/142 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/71 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 74/142 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Lowe Under 1.5 (-159) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.362 (31 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/101 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/53 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter HRR: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter HRR: 70/101 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-106) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.408, xSLG 0.619 (47 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/89 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/41 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 42/89 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Teel Over 1.5 (-110) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 7/16 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 6/11 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 13/27 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Cox Under 1.5 (-156) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/49 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/21 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter HRR: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter HRR: 34/49 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Moore Under 1.5 (-169) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/12 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter HRR: 10/13 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter HRR: 19/25 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+118) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.314 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/142 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/73 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 31/69 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 70/142 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (-106) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.282 (57 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/96 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 51/96 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+121) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.397, xSLG 0.579 (127 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/132 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 29/65 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 63/132 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (-110) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.310 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/140 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/67 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 35/73 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 71/140 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (-118) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.359 (73 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/88 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 15/42 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 37/88 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+102) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.529 (56 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+109) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.343, xSLG 0.466 (142 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/91 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 45/91 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+110) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.385 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 48/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-110) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.395 (59 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (-101) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.491 (10 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/98 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 50/98 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-102) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.480 (146 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.050
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 64/139 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/70 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 64/139 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (-104) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.390 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/131 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 56/131 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+120) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.209, xSLG 0.175 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 66/140 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 34/71 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 66/140 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.86

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-107) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.332 (58 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/146 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/73 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 34/73 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 70/146 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+108) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.204, xSLG 0.214 (89 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/147 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/73 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 36/74 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 71/147 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Under 1.5 (-150) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.176, xSLG 0.198 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/112 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 43/59 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter HRR: 80/112 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Samad Taylor Over 1.5 (+114) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 19/35 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 7/16 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 12/19 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 19/35 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-113) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.330 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 51 PA | 13/46 | HR 1 | K% 21.6% | BB% 7.8% | OPS .703
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 51 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/144 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/73 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.01 | Day Batter HRR: 67/144 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+106) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.452 (73 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 66/143 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/74 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 66/143 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Under 1.5 (-129) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: Cutter sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/66 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter HRR: 25/35 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter HRR: 47/66 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Madrigal Under 1.5 (-162) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Day Batter HRR: 11/17 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+132) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-170	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.454 (183 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/142 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 68/142 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kaelen Culpepper Over 1.5 (+110) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.190, xSLG 0.252 (16 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/30 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 6/16 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 7/14 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gary Sanchez Under 1.5 (-117) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.199, xSLG 0.206 (39 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/80 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/38 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter HRR: 51/80 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+106) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.283 (21 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/122 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 60/122 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-116) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.273 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 64/140 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/72 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 35/68 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 64/140 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+112) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.443, xSLG 0.647 (64 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 51/117 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+115) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.395 (142 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .411
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/146 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 40/74 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 77/146 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-106) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.447 (73 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 66/143 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 36/72 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.99 | Day Batter HRR: 66/143 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (-113) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.453 (69 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/133 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/71 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 59/133 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Under 1.5 (-135) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.331 (44 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/92 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/47 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter HRR: 32/45 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 64/92 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-140) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+113	-
DK	1.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.445 (84 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/138 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/70 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 36/68 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 74/138 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Foscue Under 1.5 (-172) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+130	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.391 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/90 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/45 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter HRR: 33/45 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter HRR: 64/90 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+135) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.251 (107 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/143 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 36/72 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 65/143 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Under 1.5 (-143) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.23
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.256 (92 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.029 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter HRR: 73/108 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+113) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.368 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 16 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.371
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/136 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/65 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 40/71 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 69/136 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+137) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.409 (86 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.225
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 66/147 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/74 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 34/73 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.99 | Day Batter HRR: 66/147 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+111) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.221 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/85 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/40 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 40/85 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+110) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.390 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/53 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/25 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-102) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.398 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/148 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 43/73 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 40/75 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 83/148 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Ortiz Under 1.5 (-149) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.219, xSLG 0.277 (52 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 85/124 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/64 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter HRR: 85/124 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-112) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.379 (61 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 69/142 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 34/72 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 69/142 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-104) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.342 (67 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [IL] Xavier Edwards -- Injured 10-Day
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/137 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/69 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 72/137 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Xavier Edwards -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Under 1.5 (-153) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/113 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter HRR: 76/113 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+102) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.356 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/146 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/75 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 36/71 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 66/146 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Richie Palacios Under 1.5 (-172) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.156, xSLG 0.212 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/113 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 67/113 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+127) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.528, xSLG 0.961 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 18/47 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 6/21 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter HRR: 12/26 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Charles McAdoo Under 1.5 (-173) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/15 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter HRR: 9/14 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+105) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.305 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 18 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 (-140) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.120, xSLG 0.134 (43 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 38 PA | 10/37 | HR 0 | K% 23.7% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .668
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/95 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/46 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 27/49 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter HRR: 54/95 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (-104) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.433 (15 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/143 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/71 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 30/72 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 57/143 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (-101) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.437 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 14/36 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 8/18 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 6/18 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter HRR: 14/36 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+123) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.360, xSLG 0.462 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/81 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/43 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 11/38 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter HRR: 29/81 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.P. Crawford Under 1.5 (-112) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.202, xSLG 0.233 (57 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 27/53 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 63/104 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Under 1.5 (-159) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.342 (13 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/79 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/42 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter HRR: 19/37 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 47/79 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+109) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+109	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.277 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/111 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 51/111 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yohandy Morales Over 1.5 (-113) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/8 (25%) | L20 2/8 (25%) | Season 2/8 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/8 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-165) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.226 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/134 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 49/70 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 38/64 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 87/134 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-180) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+135	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.325 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 85/138 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/69 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 43/69 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 85/138 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-175) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	Recommended
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.352 (45 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 81/138 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/71 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 41/67 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter HRR: 81/138 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+115) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.349 (79 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 62/139 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/67 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 30/72 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 62/139 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrés Chaparro Over 1.5 (-105) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.294 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 25/74 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter HRR: 13/41 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 25/74 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (-103) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.407 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/147 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/75 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 31/72 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 64/147 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+103) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.200, xSLG 0.181 (69 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 51/108 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Under 1.5 (-169) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.386 (129 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/109 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 66/109 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-103) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.254 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 62/141 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/71 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 31/70 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 62/141 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-106) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.447 (72 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/148 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/74 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 34/74 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 68/148 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Story Over 1.5 (-107) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.186, xSLG 0.239 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 26/53 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/29 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Genao Under 1.5 (-139) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/32 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/17 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 10/15 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter HRR: 19/32 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-117) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.323 (74 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/139 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 66/139 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+126) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.370, xSLG 0.527 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 55/103 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 55/103 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (-105) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.418 (20 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/84 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/41 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 38/84 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Under 1.5 (-125) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.265, xSLG 0.318 (45 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/73 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/37 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter HRR: 21/36 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 46/73 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Under 1.5 (-158) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.344 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/93 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/46 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 53/93 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-178) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.255 (60 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 87/143 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 47/75 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 40/68 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 87/143 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Under 1.5 (-158) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.164, xSLG 0.133 (20 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/115 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 70/115 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (+106) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.392, xSLG 0.563 (148 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/139 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 63/139 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+123) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.258 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 21 PA | 3/20 | HR 0 | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .391
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/121 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 50/121 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+122) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.337 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 53/123 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter HRR: 53/123 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.61

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-119) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.398 (65 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/133 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/68 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 57/133 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+117) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.421 (11 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 30/75 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/38 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 15/37 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 30/75 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josue De Paula Over 1.5 (+113) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Under 1.5 (-130) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 28/44 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/24 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 12/20 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter HRR: 28/44 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Flores Over 1.5 (+120) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Under 1.5 (-133) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+101	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.239 (72 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/137 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 46/75 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 36/62 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 82/137 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+103) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.495 (57 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/111 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 47/111 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+128) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.277 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.355
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/142 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/72 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 31/70 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 66/142 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+104) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.370 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/34 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 12/29 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+117) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.390 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/125 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/63 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 62/125 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Turner Hill Under 1.5 (-175) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-190	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 7/13 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 6/10 under 1.5 (60%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 13/23 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+101) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.320 (69 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/131 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/71 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter HRR: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 52/131 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Under 1.5 (-142) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.297 (82 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/92 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 34/49 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 62/92 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 1.5 (-136) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.143, xSLG 0.208 (11 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/67 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter HRR: 16/36 under 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 36/67 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.359 (164 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/138 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/68 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 33/70 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 66/138 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-109) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.165, xSLG 0.210 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 81/131 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/63 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 81/131 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.390 (31 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 29/63 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-130) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.240 (44 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 33 PA | 7/32 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.0% | OPS .617
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 80/141 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 46/69 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 34/72 under 1.5 (47%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 80/141 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Under 1.5 (-106) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.410 (54 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/114 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/59 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter HRR: 72/114 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.415 (162 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Under 1.5 (-128) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-139	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.365 (26 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 26/51 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/26 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 13/25 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 26/51 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Under 1.5 (-153) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.107, xSLG 0.132 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/104 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 62/104 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-103) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.219, xSLG 0.247 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 70/145 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/73 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 34/72 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 70/145 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dustin Harris Under 1.5 (-171) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.335, xSLG 0.486 (14 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 20/31 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/12 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter HRR: 10/19 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 20/31 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-111) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.383 (197 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/144 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/71 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 31/73 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 62/144 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonny Deluca Over 1.5 (+107) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.385 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/98 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 23/46 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 41/98 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Roman Anthony Over 1.5 (-127) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.304 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 21/43 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/22 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 10/21 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter HRR: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 1.5 (-167) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.387, xSLG 0.502 (70 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/79 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/41 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 27/38 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter HRR: 48/79 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Under 1.5 (-115) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.444 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 12 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.361
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 86/141 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/71 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 48/70 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter HRR: 86/141 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Will Smith Over 1.5 (-121) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.248 (36 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/63 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/37 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 10/26 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 26/63 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (+112) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.227, xSLG 0.265 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 27/70 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/37 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 13/33 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 27/70 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Thomas Saggese Under 1.5 (-151) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-138	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.553 (10 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 30/45 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/21 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter HRR: 15/24 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 30/45 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Under 1.5 (-165) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.372, xSLG 0.463 (20 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 79/129 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/61 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 79/129 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Under 1.5 (-148) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.600 (18 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/96 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 58/96 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Under 1.5 (-153) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.384, xSLG 0.509 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/99 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/44 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter HRR: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 60/99 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (-108) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.421, xSLG 0.600 (86 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 28/78 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/43 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 28/78 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (-112) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.189, xSLG 0.194 (12 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Batter Total Bases — 271 play(s) (A 1 | B 7 | C 237 | D 26)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-219) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -219

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+150	-
MyBookie	0.5	-196	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+160	-218	Recommended
DK	1.5	+163	-219	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 94/146 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/73 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 47/73 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 94/146 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 (-150) diff 273.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
MyBookie	0.5	-154	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 273.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.429 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/86 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/40 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 29/46 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 57/86 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.84

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Matchup, Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 274% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan O'Hearn Over 0.5 (-160) diff 249.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
MyBookie	0.5	-156	+112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 249.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.360 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/98 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 29/49 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 60/98 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.70

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Matchup, Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 250% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 0.5 (-140) diff 231.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	-
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	Recommended
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	-
MyBookie	0.5	-141	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.485 (71 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/136 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/70 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 39/66 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 76/136 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.64

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 232% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josue De Paula Over 0.5 (-155) diff 227.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
MyBookie	0.5	-152	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (-155) diff 226.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
MyBookie	0.5	-154	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.528 (64 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 99/149 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/75 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 49/74 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 99/149 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.86

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (-200) diff 207.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -188 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -188 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+143	-
Caesars	0.5	-193	+143	-
MyBookie	0.5	-188	+134	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.255 (88 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 17 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .435
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 99/149 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 51/72 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 48/77 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 99/149 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.59

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Matchup, Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-209) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -209

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+156	-209	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+139	-196	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.395 (142 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .411
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 95/146 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/72 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 45/74 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 95/146 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joshua Baez Over 0.5 (+160) diff 280.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 280.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter TB: 11/19 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 16/27 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.89

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 36.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 281% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (-156) diff 279.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-158	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 279.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.340 (97 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 93/138 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/70 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 47/68 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 93/138 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.86

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 279% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 (-155) diff 250.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
MyBookie	0.5	-158	+114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 250.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.529 (56 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/56 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 67/111 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.70

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 250% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-150) diff 238.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
MyBookie	0.5	-149	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.175 (51 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 77/140 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/69 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 40/71 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 77/140 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.61

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 238% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-175) diff 233.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+130	-
MyBookie	0.5	-173	+124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 233.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.476 (62 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.069
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 86/142 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/67 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 47/75 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 86/142 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.54

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 234% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 228.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
MyBookie	0.5	-160	+116	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.647 (64 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/117 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 32/58 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 67/117 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.53

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 0.5 (-165) diff 227.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
MyBookie	0.5	-162	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Emmanuel Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-125) diff 219.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-127	-109	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-190) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
MyBookie	1.5	+149	-212	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.437 (87 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 90/138 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/75 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 40/63 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 90/138 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.72

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-190) diff 214.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+142	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-186	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.480 (146 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.050
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/139 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/70 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 39/69 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 85/139 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 211.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+101	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-133	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.535 (130 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 60/114 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.49

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+220) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.4% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ethan Salas Over 0.5 (+109) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	+104	-144	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/6 (0%) | L20 0/6 (0%) | Season 0/6 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 0/6 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-220) diff 210.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 64.1% / Under 35.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-220	+160	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+157	-213	-
MyBookie	1.5	+158	-224	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.213 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 96/142 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/71 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 49/71 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 96/142 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.47

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (+150) diff 209.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (101 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 91/142 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/71 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 47/71 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 91/142 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.54

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 37.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (-105) diff 206.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	-
Caesars	0.5	-108	-124	-
MyBookie	0.5	-113	-123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.516 (146 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/120 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/59 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 33/61 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 67/120 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.48

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-140) diff 200.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+101	-
MyBookie	0.5	-133	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.447 (82 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 80/133 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/68 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 40/65 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 80/133 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (-185) diff 199.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	-
Caesars	0.5	-176	+132	-
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-173	+124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.314 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 94/142 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/73 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 45/69 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 94/142 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (-185) diff 193.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-177	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 193.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.283 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/122 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/62 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 38/60 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 76/122 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 193.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 193.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 (-155) diff 188.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+111	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
MyBookie	0.5	-147	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (86 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.225
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 85/147 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/74 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 41/73 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 85/147 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 188.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 0.5 (-190) diff 186.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+138	-
MyBookie	0.5	-185	+132	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.390 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 35/53 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/25 over 0.5 (76%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 16/28 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 35/53 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 186.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 187% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-140) diff 186.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
MyBookie	0.5	-152	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.462 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/81 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 17/38 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 44/81 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 186.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 (+190) diff 186.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+124	-
MyBookie	0.5	-163	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.252 (16 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 21/30 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/16 over 0.5 (75%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 9/14 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 21/30 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 186.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-140) diff 184.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
MyBookie	0.5	-149	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.961 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 25/47 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/21 over 0.5 (43%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter TB: 16/26 over 0.5 (62%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 25/47 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 184.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 185% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 0.5 (-165) diff 183.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
MyBookie	0.5	-162	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.454 (183 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/142 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/72 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 49/70 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 96/142 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 (-165) diff 182.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-165	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 182.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.562 (121 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/118 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 40/60 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 69/118 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 182.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 182.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 182% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (-165) diff 182.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
MyBookie	0.5	-156	+112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 182.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.214 (89 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 94/147 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/73 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 46/74 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 94/147 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 182.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 182.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 182% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-145) diff 181.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
MyBookie	0.5	-138	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 13 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .413
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 83/144 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/73 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 40/71 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 83/144 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 181.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 (-160) diff 178.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
MyBookie	0.5	-154	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 178.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.527 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 70/103 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 38/51 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 70/103 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 178.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 178.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-125) diff 176.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
MyBookie	0.5	-121	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.251 (107 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 79/143 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/71 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 40/72 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 79/143 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 176.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 177% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (-145) diff 166.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
MyBookie	0.5	-138	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.600 (18 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/96 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 54/96 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 166.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 0.5 (-175) diff 165.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
MyBookie	0.5	-167	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.356 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 84/146 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/75 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 46/71 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 84/146 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 165.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Juan Brito Over 0.5 (-120) diff 164.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
MyBookie	0.5	-123	-113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.708 (18 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 5/11 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 5/11 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 10/22 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-200) diff 163.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+147	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-192	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 163.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.370 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/63 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/34 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 14/29 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 35/63 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 163.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 163.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 163% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-165) diff 155.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-160	+116	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.355
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/142 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/72 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 39/70 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 85/142 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 155.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-200) diff 155.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+137	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-180	+128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.453 (69 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/133 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/71 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 36/62 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 71/133 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 155.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-155) diff 154.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-152	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 154.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.421 (11 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/75 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/38 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 20/37 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 39/75 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 154.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 154.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Samad Taylor Over 0.5 (-165) diff 154.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
MyBookie	0.5	-165	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 154.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 25/35 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/16 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 16/19 over 0.5 (84%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 25/35 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 154.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 154.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 0.5 (-165) diff 154.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-152	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 154.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.506 (122 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/106 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 64/106 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 154.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 154.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 154% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-120) diff 153.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
MyBookie	0.5	-123	-113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 153.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.534 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/120 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 38/62 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 65/120 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 153.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 153.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-165) diff 152.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
MyBookie	0.5	-158	+114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.340 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/131 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/64 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 34/67 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 73/131 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-140) diff 150.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-135	-102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.309 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/145 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/75 over 0.5 (41%), avg 1.01 | Away Batter TB: 40/70 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 71/145 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 150.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 150.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (-175) diff 150.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+124	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
MyBookie	0.5	-163	+117	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.258 (50 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 21 PA | 3/20 | HR 0 | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .391
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/121 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/63 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 67/121 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 150.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 150.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 150% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 (-190) diff 150.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+139	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
MyBookie	0.5	-182	+130	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.495 (57 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/111 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 60/111 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 150.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 150.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 150% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 0.5 (-161) diff 147.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -161

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-163	+117	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.415 (162 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/102 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 30/46 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 66/102 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 0.5 (-185) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
MyBookie	0.5	-171	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.132 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/104 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 57/104 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonny Deluca Over 0.5 (-160) diff 145.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
MyBookie	0.5	-167	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.385 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/98 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 29/46 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 55/98 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 (-175) diff 144.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+131	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-173	+124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.133 (20 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 63/115 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 0.5 (-200) diff 144.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -188 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -188 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+143	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
MyBookie	0.5	-188	+134	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/123 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 35/62 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 72/123 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 139.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
MyBookie	0.5	-152	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.265 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/70 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/37 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 15/33 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 34/70 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 139.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-175) diff 139.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+129	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
MyBookie	0.5	-170	+122	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.181 (69 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 65/108 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 139.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Thomas Saggese Over 0.5 (-160) diff 136.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 0.5 -159; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-160	+116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 136.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.553 (10 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 22/45 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/21 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter TB: 12/24 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 22/45 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 136.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 136.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 (-185) diff 135.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
MyBookie	0.5	-185	+132	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 135.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 79/141 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/71 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 38/70 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 79/141 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 135.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 135.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-115) diff 134.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
MyBookie	0.5	-116	-119	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 134.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.448 (93 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/103 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/52 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 62/103 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 134.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 134.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-190) diff 133.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+139	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-182	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 133.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.509 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/99 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/44 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 54/99 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 133.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 133.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-160) diff 132.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-150	+112	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-154	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 132.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.412 (91 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/98 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 28/45 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 55/98 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 132.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 132.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 0.5 (+190) diff 132.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 132.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.364 (161 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/119 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/62 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 71/119 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 132.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 132.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Samuel Basallo Over 0.5 (-135) diff 131.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
MyBookie	0.5	-130	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 131.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.406 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/105 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 26/50 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 56/105 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 131.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 131.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-200) diff 131.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -196 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -196 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+149	-
Caesars	0.5	-197	+145	-
MyBookie	0.5	-196	+139	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 131.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.383 (197 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/144 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/71 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 44/73 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 86/144 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 131.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 131.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (+200) diff 130.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.390 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 75/125 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/63 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/62 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 75/125 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 130.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-160) diff 129.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
MyBookie	0.5	-158	+114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 129.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.463 (20 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/129 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 41/68 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 71/129 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 129.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 129.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-165) diff 127.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
MyBookie	0.5	-159	+114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.502 (70 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/79 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/41 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 20/38 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter TB: 44/79 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-165) diff 124.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
MyBookie	0.5	-167	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 124.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.297 (82 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/92 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/43 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 46/92 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 124.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 124.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-155) diff 123.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
MyBookie	0.5	-154	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 123.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.226 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/134 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/70 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 38/64 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 75/134 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 123.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 123.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-137) diff 122.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-137	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-140	+101	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 122.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.485 (120 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/128 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/63 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 37/65 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 69/128 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 122.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 122.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Harry Ford Over 0.5 (-164) diff 122.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-165	+119	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 122.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/31 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/14 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 6/17 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 13/31 over 0.5 (42%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 122.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 122.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-160) diff 114.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
MyBookie	0.5	-154	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 114.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 61/113 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 114.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 114.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 (-130) diff 113.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
MyBookie	0.5	-123	-113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 113.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/77 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/39 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter TB: 19/38 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 39/77 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 113.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 113.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 0.5 (-185) diff 111.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/32 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/17 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 7/15 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter TB: 17/32 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-150) diff 105.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
MyBookie	0.5	-144	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 105.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.390 (31 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 36/63 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/33 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 23/30 over 0.5 (77%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 36/63 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 105.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 105.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-175) diff 105.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+129	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
MyBookie	0.5	-170	+122	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 105.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.342 (13 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/79 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/42 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 21/37 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 40/79 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 105.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 105.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-165) diff 104.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
MyBookie	0.5	-158	+114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 104.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.352 (45 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 80/138 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/71 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 41/67 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 80/138 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 104.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 104.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-200) diff 104.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+147	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-197	+145	-
Fanatics	0.5	-200	+150	-
MyBookie	0.5	-192	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 104.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.240 (44 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 33 PA | 7/32 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.0% | OPS .617
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/141 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/69 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 43/72 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 79/141 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 104.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 104.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Caballero Over 0.5 (-115) diff 104.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
MyBookie	0.5	-117	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 104.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.216 (43 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/125 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 35/67 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 62/125 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 104.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 104.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-190) diff 103.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
MyBookie	0.5	-168	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 103.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.386 (129 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/56 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 29/53 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 57/109 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 103.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 103.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-135) diff 103.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
MyBookie	0.5	-133	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 103.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.255 (60 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/143 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/75 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 34/68 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 73/143 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 103.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 103.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-150) diff 99.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-152	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 99.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.344 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/93 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/46 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 25/47 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 50/93 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 99.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 99.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-130) diff 99.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-127	-109	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 99.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.343 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/80 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/43 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 16/37 over 0.5 (43%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 37/80 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 99.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 99.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Moore Over 0.5 (-150) diff 96.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	Recommended
Fanatics	0.5	-145	+110	-
MyBookie	0.5	-143	+103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/12 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 7/13 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter TB: 14/25 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 96.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 96.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (+115) diff 94.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+115	-155	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	0.5	+111	-148	-
MyBookie	0.5	+107	-148	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.443 (153 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/129 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/65 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 33/64 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 69/129 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-130) diff 94.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
MyBookie	0.5	-131	-105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.97
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.325 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/126 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/65 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 60/126 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-175) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+129	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
MyBookie	0.5	-170	+122	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (72 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 79/137 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/75 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 39/62 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 79/137 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-173	+124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
Caesars	1.5	+155	-215	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.331 (44 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/92 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/47 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 24/45 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 44/92 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-145) diff 92.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
MyBookie	0.5	-154	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.08
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.365 (26 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 31/51 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/26 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 16/25 over 0.5 (64%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 92.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 92.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Volpe Over 0.5 (-140) diff 91.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
MyBookie	0.5	-136	-101	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.96 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.05
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.232 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/59 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/25 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 16/34 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 31/59 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 91.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 91.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-156) diff 90.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-158	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.95 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.97
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.300 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/56 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 58/109 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 90.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 90.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-130) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
MyBookie	0.5	-127	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/96 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/50 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 24/46 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 45/96 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 86.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 86.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dustin Harris Over 0.5 (-165) diff 83.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
MyBookie	0.5	-160	+116	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.90
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.486 (14 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/31 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 4/12 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter TB: 12/19 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 16/31 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Charles McAdoo Over 0.5 (-155) diff 83.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
MyBookie	0.5	-154	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.97
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 6/15 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 9/14 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 15/29 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Valenzuela Over 0.5 (-120) diff 83.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
MyBookie	0.5	-127	-109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.96
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 36/84 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 21/43 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter TB: 36/84 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 0.5 (-120) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	-
MyBookie	0.5	-127	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.97
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/79 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/41 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 15/38 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter TB: 37/79 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 82.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 82.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-165) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
MyBookie	0.5	-143	+103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.95
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.362 (31 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/101 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 19/48 over 0.5 (40%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter TB: 42/101 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 82.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 82.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (-185) diff 80.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+132	-
MyBookie	0.5	-173	+124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.277 (52 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/124 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/64 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 27/60 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter TB: 61/124 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-200) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -188 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -188 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+143	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+138	-
MyBookie	0.5	-188	+134	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.99
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.134 (43 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 38 PA | 10/37 | HR 0 | K% 23.7% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .668
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/95 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/46 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 48/95 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Tena Over 0.5 (-135) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-125	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.85
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.293 (50 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter TB: 43/109 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 79.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 79.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gary Sanchez Over 0.5 (-155) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
MyBookie	0.5	-158	+114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.206 (39 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/80 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/38 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 14/42 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter TB: 35/80 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 79.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 79.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-140) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
MyBookie	0.5	-133	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.212 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/55 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 56/113 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 78.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 78.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Fortes Over 0.5 (-125) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
MyBookie	0.5	-123	-113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.88 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.210 (17 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/98 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/52 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 54/98 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 75.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 75.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-135) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
MyBookie	0.5	-128	-107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.337 (207 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/134 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/67 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 34/67 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.99 | Day Batter TB: 73/134 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 74.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 74.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-135) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-138	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (38 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter TB: 56/111 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 73.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 73.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-135) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-133	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.94
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.180 (26 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/115 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter TB: 52/115 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-155) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+114	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+110	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-150	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.384 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/121 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 24/63 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 55/121 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Turner Hill Over 0.5 (-155) diff 66.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
MyBookie	0.5	-148	+107	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 5/13 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.77 | Away Batter TB: 6/10 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 11/23 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 66.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 66.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Rojas Over 0.5 (-120) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
MyBookie	0.5	-143	+103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/94 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/47 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.74 | Day Batter TB: 40/94 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 (-150) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
MyBookie	0.5	-145	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.90
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.272 (16 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/54 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 20/48 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter TB: 44/102 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cody Freeman Over 0.5 (-175) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.82
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.356 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/33 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/17 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter TB: 9/16 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 16/33 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Cox Over 0.5 (-175) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-167	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.80 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.96
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 20/49 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/21 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 9/28 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 20/49 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matthew Lugo Under 0.5 (-120) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.25 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/8 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (-165) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
MyBookie	0.5	-162	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.329 (25 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 32/94 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/52 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 0.5 (38%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 32/94 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leonardo Bernal Over 1.5 (+150) diff 52.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+155	-213	-
MyBookie	1.5	+152	-216	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter TB: 7/11 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.27

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-135) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-133	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.91
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.415 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 28/57 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/31 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 13/26 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 28/57 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (+100) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-105	-127	-
MyBookie	0.5	-104	-133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.247 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/113 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 45/113 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brenton Doyle Over 0.5 (-135) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+101	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-133	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.172 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 29/74 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/36 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.83 | Away Batter TB: 13/38 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter TB: 29/74 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Madrigal Over 0.5 (-165) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
MyBookie	0.5	-162	+117	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.76
Base projection 0.76 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Day Batter TB: 7/17 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+116) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+109	-152	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.506 (77 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/149 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/74 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter TB: 37/75 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter TB: 73/149 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.18

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+101) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+102	-141	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 58/123 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter TB: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 58/123 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+102	-141	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.820 (49 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 65/145 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/75 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.43 | Away Batter TB: 23/70 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 65/145 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.12

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+133) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+128	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.644 (179 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/129 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 62/129 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Under 1.5 (-200) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
Caesars	1.5	+154	-209	-
MyBookie	1.5	+152	-216	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: Cutter sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 54/66 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/31 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 31/35 under 1.5 (89%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter TB: 54/66 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+119) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+114	-158	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.481 (68 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 59/141 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/73 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 59/141 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Under 1.5 (-200) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	Recommended
MyBookie	1.5	+142	-199	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.93
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.256 (92 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.029 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/108 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/52 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 43/56 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter TB: 83/108 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (+114) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+112	-156	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.599 (10 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 3 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/94 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/44 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 44/94 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Walker Jenkins Over 0.5 (-140) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
MyBookie	0.5	-138	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter TB: 4/13 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+103) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+101	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.537 (75 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 71/149 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.24 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/77 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 35/72 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 71/149 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 (-150) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-143	+103	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.76
Base projection 0.76 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.156 (17 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/90 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter TB: 34/90 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+102) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+104	-144	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (103 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/143 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/72 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter TB: 27/71 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 61/143 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+120) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+109	-152	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (96 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 30.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 1.433
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/149 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/75 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 32/74 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 64/149 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+121) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+108	-149	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 1.016 (20 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/137 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/74 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 22/63 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 54/137 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+122) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+123	-171	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.645 (41 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/145 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/73 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 67/145 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 (-120) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
MyBookie	0.5	-117	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.637 (13 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/36 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 6/19 over 0.5 (32%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 5/17 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter TB: 11/36 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+104) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+112	-156	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.710 (41 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/146 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/73 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 27/73 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 57/146 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.P. Crawford Under 1.5 (-200) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
MyBookie	1.5	+149	-212	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.233 (57 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/104 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/51 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 78/104 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-106) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-106	-126	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	-107	-128	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.482 (85 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/143 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/72 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 61/143 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Under 1.5 (-197) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+150	-
MyBookie	0.5	-196	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.318 (45 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/73 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/37 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter TB: 24/36 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 53/73 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yohandy Morales Over 1.5 (+138) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+123	-171	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.75 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/8 over 1.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+118) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+114	-158	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.678 (42 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/143 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 29/72 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 67/143 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Under 1.5 (-278) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 1.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -278

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 1.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.355 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/108 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/58 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 37/50 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 80/108 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-170) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	Recommended
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+117	-163	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.210 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 88/131 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/63 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 45/68 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 88/131 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-177) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+123	-171	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.310 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 31 PA | 6/30 | HR 0 | K% 9.7% | BB% 3.2% | OPS .426
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 90/139 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/69 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 42/70 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 90/139 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-105) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
MyBookie	0.5	-125	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.382 (11 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 32/43 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/23 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter TB: 16/20 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter TB: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+110) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+105	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.379 (69 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 70/148 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/74 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter TB: 33/74 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 70/148 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.03

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Aaron Judge Over 1.5 (+113) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+112	-156	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.550 (27 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 28/63 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 28/63 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+100) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+108	-149	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.628 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 67/148 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/74 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 39/74 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 67/148 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Under 1.5 (-185) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
MyBookie	1.5	+139	-196	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (20 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/84 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/41 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 30/43 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 59/84 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Under 1.5 (-177) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.444 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 12 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.361
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 99/141 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/71 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 55/70 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter TB: 99/141 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+130) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.473 (167 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/148 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/74 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 31/74 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 61/148 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.82

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Foscue Under 1.5 (-210) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
Caesars	1.5	+157	-213	-
MyBookie	1.5	+154	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/90 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/45 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 34/45 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 67/90 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+114) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+108	-149	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.340 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/141 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/67 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 34/74 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 62/141 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Will Smith Under 1.5 (-178) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
MyBookie	0.5	-171	+123	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.248 (36 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/63 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/37 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 21/26 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 44/63 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (+126) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+117	-163	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.743 (103 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/97 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 39/97 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.90

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-135) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
MyBookie	0.5	-138	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.205 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/134 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/66 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter TB: 25/68 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter TB: 45/134 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+104) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+105	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.503 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 40 PA | 9/38 | HR 1 | K% 22.5% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .696
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 40 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/146 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/73 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 34/73 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 65/146 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+115) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+104	-144	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.349 (65 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 46/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.07

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+113) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+108	-149	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.414 (82 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 20 PA | 11/19 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS 1.337
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/145 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/73 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 30/72 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 61/145 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+115) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+109	-152	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.489 (179 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 17 PA | 5/16 | HR 2 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.040
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 59/128 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 59/128 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+131) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+117	-163	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.492 (145 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 11 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.303
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/118 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 60/118 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-187) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	Recommended
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+123	-171	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.194 (12 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 35/51 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 69/106 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-201) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.256 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 84/140 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/72 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 84/140 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 (-192) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.600 (86 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/78 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/43 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 24/35 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 55/78 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Morabito Under 0.5 (-150) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 0.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+110	-150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-101	-128	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.191 (10 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter TB: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+115) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+116	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.429 (194 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 60/143 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 27/71 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 60/143 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+123) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+114	-158	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/126 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 57/126 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+135) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
MyBookie	1.5	+149	-212	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.439 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/131 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/66 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 27/65 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 59/131 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+135) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+124	-173	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.237 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrés Chaparro Under 1.5 (-184) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
MyBookie	0.5	-165	+119	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.294 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/74 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/33 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter TB: 29/41 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 54/74 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+127) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+111	-154	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (91 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/148 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/73 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 28/75 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 56/148 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Under 1.5 (-155) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	Recommended
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+117	-163	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.410 (54 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 81/114 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/59 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 81/114 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jahmai Jones Over 0.5 (-185) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 25/84 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/42 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter TB: 9/42 over 0.5 (21%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter TB: 25/84 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+119) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+112	-156	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (97 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/145 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/73 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 60/145 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+132) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+126	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.438 (108 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/145 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/76 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 67/145 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+112) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+114	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.511 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/131 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/62 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 54/131 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+155) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	1.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.428 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/146 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/74 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 59/146 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Teel Under 1.5 (-195) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/16 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 7/11 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-187) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.67 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
MyBookie	0.5	-162	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.67 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/140 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 57/72 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 43/68 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 100/140 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-204) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+137	-192	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.247 (50 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/145 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/73 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 45/72 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 91/145 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 1.5 (-175) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (11 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/67 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/31 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 21/36 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 45/67 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Under 1.5 (-190) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
MyBookie	1.5	+144	-204	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/111 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 71/111 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Story Under 1.5 (-175) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.239 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/53 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/29 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 16/24 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Under 1.5 (-178) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (55 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 72/105 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Under 1.5 (-204) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	Recommended
DK	1.5	+152	-204	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.320 (69 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 78/131 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/71 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 33/60 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 78/131 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-181) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.323 (74 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 89/139 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/69 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 39/70 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 89/139 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (+140) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+151	-205	-
MyBookie	1.5	+147	-208	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/30 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/13 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 8/17 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 16/30 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Under 1.5 (-179) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+124	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.278 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 12 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/115 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/62 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 68/115 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+138) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.392 (77 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .455
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 66/141 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/68 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 31/73 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 66/141 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-178) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+124	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.264 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 90/139 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/72 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 42/67 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 90/139 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Call Over 0.5 (-135) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
MyBookie	0.5	-138	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.276 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 30/81 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/40 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter TB: 30/81 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-207) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (67 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
INJURY: [IL] Xavier Edwards -- Injured 10-Day
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/137 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/69 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 47/68 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 92/137 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Xavier Edwards -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+131) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+123	-171	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.619 (47 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 36/89 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/41 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 36/89 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+130) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+141	-193	-
MyBookie	1.5	+142	-199	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.385 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/97 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 40/97 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-154) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+116	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.369 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 12 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.028
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/134 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/67 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 42/67 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 85/134 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+121) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+121	-168	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (71 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/141 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/72 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 38/69 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter TB: 61/141 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (+130) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/93 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/42 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 43/93 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+106) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+104	-144	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/96 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 15/45 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 38/96 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+142) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+126	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.614 (31 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/144 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 28/74 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 58/144 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+146) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.199 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/99 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/43 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 40/99 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-217) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 1.5 -216 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -217

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 1.5 -216 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+152	-216	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.359 (164 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 84/138 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +2.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/68 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 46/70 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 84/138 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-190) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.379 (61 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/142 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/70 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 47/72 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 93/142 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-200) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
Caesars	1.5	+154	-209	-
MyBookie	1.5	+152	-216	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.368 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 16 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.371
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/136 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/65 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 41/71 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 85/136 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+130) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.579 (127 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/132 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/67 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 26/65 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 56/132 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-175) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	-
MyBookie	0.5	-182	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.563 (148 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 89/139 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/70 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 47/69 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 89/139 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+115) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+114	-158	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.311 (98 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/143 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/69 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 32/74 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 54/143 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Under 1.5 (-190) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 1.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 1.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 -189; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.390 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/131 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/63 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 46/68 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 94/131 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Under 1.5 (-185) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
MyBookie	1.5	+147	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.437 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 25/36 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/18 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 14/18 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter TB: 25/36 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+121) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+121	-168	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.308 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/110 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.12 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 38/110 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+135) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+137	-192	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.353 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 34/82 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/42 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 13/40 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 34/82 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+112) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+108	-149	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.288 (104 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 12 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.117
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/144 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/74 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 22/70 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 54/144 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+112) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+101	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.399 (87 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/141 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/69 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 32/72 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 54/141 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Roman Anthony Under 1.5 (-170) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+126	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.304 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/43 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/22 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 14/21 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 27/43 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-191) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+142	-191	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+128	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (85 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 91/142 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/71 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 49/71 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 91/142 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Maile Under 0.5 (-400) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 0.5 -133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	-
MyBookie	0.5	+104	-144	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.093 (12 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Day Batter TB: 9/14 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.466 (142 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/91 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 35/91 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+107	-148	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.537 (143 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/130 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/70 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99 | Away Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 58/130 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+145) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 1.36 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-190	+145	-
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+145	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 1.36 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/149 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/77 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 28/72 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 60/149 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-169) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	-
MyBookie	1.5	+116	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.193 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/128 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/65 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 41/63 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 83/128 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Under 1.5 (-185) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
MyBookie	1.5	+139	-196	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.221 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/85 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/40 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 24/45 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 53/85 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+131) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
MyBookie	1.5	+124	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.376 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/143 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/70 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 30/73 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 58/143 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+142) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.447 (73 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 60/143 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/71 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 36/72 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 60/143 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+142) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+139	-196	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.282 (57 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/96 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 39/96 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Under 1.5 (-186) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 0.64 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	-
MyBookie	0.5	-162	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.305 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 18 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 0.64 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 74/113 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+112	-156	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/123 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/65 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 56/123 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+133) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+119	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/148 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/73 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.99 | Away Batter TB: 35/75 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 69/148 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Under 1.5 (-187) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+137	-192	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.433 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 95/143 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 49/72 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 95/143 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-172) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.385 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 97/148 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/73 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 49/75 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 97/148 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+155) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-
MyBookie	1.5	+154	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (64 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .764
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 63/137 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/66 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 36/71 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 63/137 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.47

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+124) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-170	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+128	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.246 (106 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/142 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/71 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 33/71 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.01 | Day Batter TB: 55/142 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Under 1.5 (-167) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	Recommended
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+121	-168	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.398 (65 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 88/133 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/68 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 38/65 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 88/133 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Under 1.5 (-179) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 51 PA | 13/46 | HR 1 | K% 21.6% | BB% 7.8% | OPS .703
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 51 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 93/144 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/73 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 46/71 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 93/144 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-192) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 1.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 1.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (65 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 89/141 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/73 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 43/68 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 89/141 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.491 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 34/98 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 10/44 over 1.5 (23%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 34/98 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Konnor Griffin Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.367 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 25/67 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/36 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 25/67 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.48

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+160) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +160

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+165	-220	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	1.5	+147	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.452 (73 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 48/143 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/74 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 21/69 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 48/143 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+103) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	Recommended
MyBookie	1.5	+104	-144	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.445 (84 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/138 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/70 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 25/68 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 51/138 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pavin Smith Under 0.5 (-105) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.189 (32 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/17 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter TB: 10/12 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter TB: 19/29 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Under 1.5 (-175) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/88 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/46 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 29/42 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 57/88 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (+128) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+123	-171	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.262 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/121 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter TB: 20/61 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 50/121 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+121	-168	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.310 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/140 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/67 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 24/73 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 52/140 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+116) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+117	-163	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.374 (58 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/129 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/64 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 29/65 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 50/129 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 0.5 (-190) diff 174.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+148	-200	-
MyBookie	1.5	+149	-212	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 174.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.447 (72 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 93/148 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/74 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 46/74 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 93/148 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 174.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 174% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-105) diff 170.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
MyBookie	0.5	-114	-121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.160 (28 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/12 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 10/18 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 17/30 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-190) diff 170.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.407 (66 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/147 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/75 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 34/72 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 79/147 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Sean Murphy Over 0.5 (-112) diff 142.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-116	-119	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.208 (12 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/13 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 4/11 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter TB: 13/24 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 142.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-115) diff 123.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-104	-129	-
MyBookie	0.5	-107	-128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 123.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.345 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/96 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/50 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 50/96 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 123.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-155) diff 113.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 113.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/138 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/69 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 38/69 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 77/138 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 113.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Michael Conforto Over 0.5 (-105) diff 113.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-101	-128	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-103	-130	-
MyBookie	0.5	-105	-131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 113.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.346 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/102 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/51 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter TB: 28/51 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 43/102 over 0.5 (42%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 113.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Danny Jansen Over 0.5 (+220) diff 102.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
MyBookie	0.5	-111	-124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 102.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .697
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 26/55 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/25 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter TB: 16/30 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 102.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jose Trevino Over 0.5 (-125) diff 95.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 95.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.288 (28 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 21/43 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/21 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 7/22 over 0.5 (32%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 21/43 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 95.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-105) diff 80.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-103	-130	-
MyBookie	0.5	-107	-128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.92
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.412 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/90 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter TB: 19/42 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 39/90 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-115) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	-
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-116	-119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.07
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.264 (70 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .615
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 67/131 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/66 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 35/65 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 67/131 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 79.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Miguel Amaya Over 0.5 (-105) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.92
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.215 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/77 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.77 | Away Batter TB: 17/34 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 36/77 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 73.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-110) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
MyBookie	0.5	-114	-121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.86
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 36/94 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/46 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 16/48 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter TB: 36/94 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-120) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 0.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.86
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.217 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .523
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter TB: 33/61 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 57/112 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-108) diff 66.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-111	-124	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.333 (92 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/89 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/49 over 0.5 (43%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 24/40 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter TB: 45/89 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 66.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Graham Pauley Over 0.5 (+107) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	+105	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.94
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.149 (11 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 22/54 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/30 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter TB: 12/24 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 22/54 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 66.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 0.5 (+200) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.84
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.198 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/59 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 21/53 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter TB: 51/112 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (-105) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-103	-130	-
MyBookie	0.5	-106	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.327 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 33/91 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/49 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter TB: 15/42 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter TB: 33/91 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Alex Freeland Over 0.5 (+100) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+104	-137	-
MyBookie	0.5	+104	-144	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.357 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 34/83 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/44 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter TB: 34/83 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (+110) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+110	-150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	+104	-144	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.86
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (63 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/132 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/65 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 29/67 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter TB: 54/132 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Weston Wilson Over 0.5 (-125) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.75
Base projection 0.75 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.327 (15 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 24/62 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/34 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter TB: 12/28 over 0.5 (43%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 24/62 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nate Eaton Over 0.5 (-140) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-123	-113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/15 (20%) | Season 3/15 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter TB: 3/15 over 0.5 (20%), avg 0.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 (+110) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+110	-150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	+103	-133	-
MyBookie	0.5	-101	-136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.73
Base projection 0.73 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (29 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/98 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/49 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter TB: 17/49 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 31/98 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jorge Mateo Over 0.5 (-105) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-105	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-109	-127	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.324 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/87 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/40 over 0.5 (28%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter TB: 16/47 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter TB: 27/87 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (+105) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+113	-147	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+108	-145	-
MyBookie	0.5	+108	-149	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.74
Base projection 0.74 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 20/50 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/30 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter TB: 8/20 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter TB: 20/50 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Tyler Tolbert Over 0.5 (-115) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.354 (32 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 22/71 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 5/32 over 0.5 (16%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter TB: 17/39 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter TB: 22/71 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (B 2 | C 8)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-145) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+125	-
BetOnline	17.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-145	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-145	+109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+110	-
Fanatics	17.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.057 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cam Schlittler: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .176 | OPS .622
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.3%, L7 18.5%, season 22.4%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 7.1%, L7 10.5%, season 8.6%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.5% (6/6); lineup K% 22.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Matthew Boyd Under 17.5 (+137) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +137

Selected market: Over 60.6% / Under 39.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-155	+120	-
DK	17.5	-184	+137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.255 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 60.6% / under 39.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 69 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .286 | OPS .682
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 25.2%, L7 15.3%, season 24.0%, top-6 24.7%, BVP 20.3%/69 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.5%, L7 7.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 5.8%/69 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.7% (6/6); lineup K% 23.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Under 17.5 (+122) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.64 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-165	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	17.5	-173	+129	-
DK	17.5	-163	+122	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-174	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-
BetMGM	18.5	+145	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 15.756999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.3 IP (recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.64 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 74)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.3 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 74
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 211 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .283 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.4%/211 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.9%, L7 10.5%, season 9.3%, BVP 4.3%/211 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/26 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 17.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Over 17.5 (-115) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-120	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-110	-121	-
DK	17.5	-115	-115	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-108	-125	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.875999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.7%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5% (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.40 | Season Avg 17.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.22 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael McGreevy Under 17.5 (-132) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 17.17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books | 16.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 16.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	16.5	-125	-115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	+101	-136	-
DK	17.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.488 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 17.17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 25.1%, L7 29.1%, season 24.1%, top-6 24.6%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 11.0%, L7 11.2%, season 9.5%, BVP 0.0%/12 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.6% (6/6); lineup K% 26.2% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.70 | Season Avg 16.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 (-139) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 17.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-136	+102	-
DK	17.5	-139	+105	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	-
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.809 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 63 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .207 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.4%, L7 26.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.8%/63 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 9.0%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.9%/63 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 17.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Over 17.5 (-174) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.57 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 18 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	17.5	-155	+121	Recommended
DK	17.5	-174	+131	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-174	+124	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-
BetOnline	18	+100	-140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.805 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.57 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 50 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .664
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.6%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, top-6 19.0%, BVP 22.0%/50 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 7.7%, L7 7.2%, season 7.4%, BVP 12.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.3%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.0% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 16.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matt Boyd Under 17.5 (+140) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +140

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 17.255 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (no recent-form adjustment); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 60.7% / under 39.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 15.3%, season 24.0%, top-6 24.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, L7 7.8%, season 9.1% (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.7% (6/6); lineup K% 23.3% (9/9)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 17.5 (-185) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.8% / Under 39.2%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 18 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
Caesars	17.5	-190	+139	-
DK	17.5	-185	+139	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-180	+134	-
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-185	+130	-
BetOnline	18	+100	-140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.742 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.8% / under 39.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dylan Cease: 45 PA | K% 35.6% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .293 | OPS .941
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 22.6%, L7 30.3%, season 24.6%, top-6 25.6%, BVP 35.6%/45 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.8%, L7 9.2%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.9%/45 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.6% (6/6); lineup K% 25.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 17.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Payton Tolle Over 17.5 (-121) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-130	-103	-
DK	17.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+102	-
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 17.612 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.7%, top-6 20.7% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 6.9%, L7 10.8%, season 8.5% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.7% (6/6); lineup K% 21.7% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ F5 ML — 4 play(s) (B 1 | C 3)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) edge 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK +135 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +135

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: DK +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.20
Bubba Chandler xFIP 4.20
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 116 (team 107)
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 110 (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.13
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)
Away SP: Bubba Chandler (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — New York Mets (+154) edge 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees (F5) | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM +155 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +154

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetMGM +155 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Cam Schlittler xFIP 4.20
Christian Scott xFIP 4.20
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 119 (team 100)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 110 (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.14
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Kansas City Royals (+135) edge 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (F5) | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS +150 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +135

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetUS +150 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Fenway Park (HITTER)
Payton Tolle xFIP 4.20
Noah Cameron xFIP 4.20
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 101)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Baltimore Orioles (+130) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (F5) | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +130 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +130

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +130 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Rogers Centre (PITCHER)
Dylan Cease xFIP 4.20
Trevor Rogers xFIP 4.20
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 105 (team 96)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 105 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Dylan Cease (RHP)
Away SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ Batter HR — 244 play(s) (B 11 | C 233)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 90.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0438
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (64 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .764
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 131/137 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/66 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 66/71 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 131/137 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 89.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0548
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 138/146 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/73 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 70/73 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 138/146 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Konnor Griffin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0746
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.367 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 62/67 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/36 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 62/67 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1141
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.255 (88 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 17 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .435
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 133/149 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 69/77 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 133/149 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.214 (89 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 128/147 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/73 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 67/74 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 128/147 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1608
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.251 (107 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 120/143 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 120/143 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1712
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.428 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 127/146 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/74 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 61/72 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 127/146 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1832
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.439 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/131 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/66 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 107/131 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 62.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1837
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.360 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2093
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.429 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 69/86 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/40 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 35/46 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 69/86 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-700) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2752
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.506 (77 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 115/149 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/74 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 59/75 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 115/149 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Call Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 97.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0123
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.276 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 80/81 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/40 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 40/41 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 80/81 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 97.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0144
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.310 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 31 PA | 6/30 | HR 0 | K% 9.7% | BB% 3.2% | OPS .426
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 137/139 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/69 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 69/70 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Day Batter HR: 137/139 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 96.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0200
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 49/50 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 20/20 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 49/50 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 96.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0196
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.365 (26 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/51 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 25/25 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 96.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0222
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.205 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 131/134 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/66 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 66/68 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 131/134 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 95.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 95.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0217
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.352 (45 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 135/138 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 70/71 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 65/67 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 135/138 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0268
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.198 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/112 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 109/112 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Morabito Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.191 (10 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 12/12 (100%) | Season 12/12 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HR: 12/12 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0268
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.217 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .523
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/112 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/51 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 109/112 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Samad Taylor Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 94.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0286
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 34/35 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/16 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 18/19 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 34/35 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matthew Lugo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/8 (100%) | L20 8/8 (100%) | Season 8/8 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/8 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.256 (30 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 140/140 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 72/72 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 68/68 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 140/140 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cody Freeman Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0303
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.356 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 32/33 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 17/17 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 15/16 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 32/33 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0339
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.232 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/59 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 33/34 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0312
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/94 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/47 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 91/94 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0325
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 119/123 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 61/62 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 119/123 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dustin Harris Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.486 (14 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 31/31 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 12/12 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 19/19 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 31/31 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.382 (11 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 43/43 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/23 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 20/20 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 43/43 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josue De Paula Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0411
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.354 (32 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 68/71 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 37/39 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 68/71 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0357
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (20 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 81/84 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/41 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 42/43 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 81/84 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Freeland Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0361
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.357 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 80/83 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/44 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 38/39 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 80/83 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0408
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.210 (17 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/98 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 94/98 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0448
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.337 (207 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 128/134 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/67 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 65/67 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 128/134 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0380
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.502 (70 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 76/79 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 38/38 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 76/79 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Moore Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0400
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 24/25 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 13/13 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0400
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.390 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 120/125 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/63 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 120/125 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 91.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0405
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.172 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 71/74 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/36 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 37/38 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 71/74 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0476
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.390 (31 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 60/63 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 60/63 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0426
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.392 (77 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .455
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 135/141 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/68 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 69/73 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 135/141 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 91.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0511
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (72 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 130/137 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 74/75 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 130/137 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 90.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0526
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.134 (43 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 38 PA | 10/37 | HR 0 | K% 23.7% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .668
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/95 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/46 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/95 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 89.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0611
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.264 (70 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .615
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 123/131 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/66 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 123/131 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Maile Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 89.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.093 (12 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 13/14 (93%) | Season 13/14 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HR: 13/14 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.256 (92 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.029 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 102/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Story Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.239 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/53 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/29 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 22/24 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 89.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0611
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.210 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 123/131 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/63 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 123/131 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 89.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0612
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (29 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/98 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 92/98 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0621
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.247 (50 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 136/145 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/73 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 69/72 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 136/145 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0642
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.386 (129 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 102/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0645
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.277 (52 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 116/124 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/64 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 116/124 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.383 (197 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 135/144 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 70/71 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 65/73 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 135/144 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 88.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.327 (15 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 58/62 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/34 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jahmai Jones Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0595
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/84 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 40/42 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 79/84 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0629
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.255 (60 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 134/143 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 72/75 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 134/143 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0611
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.320 (69 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 123/131 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/71 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 123/131 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 88.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0690
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.415 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/57 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 88.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0662
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.368 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 16 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.371
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 128/136 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/65 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 67/71 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 128/136 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0597
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.369 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 12 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.028
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 126/134 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/67 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 126/134 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 30/32 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/17 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 14/15 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0652
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 130/138 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/69 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 130/138 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0606
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: Cutter sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 62/66 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 62/66 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0649
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.215 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 72/77 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/43 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 72/77 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0606
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.509 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/99 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/44 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 93/99 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0744
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.384 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 112/121 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 112/121 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0729
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/96 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 89/96 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0638
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/94 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 88/94 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0647
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.264 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 130/139 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/72 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 62/67 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 130/139 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 87.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 28/30 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/13 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 17/17 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 28/30 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0753
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.344 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/93 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 86/93 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0719
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.323 (74 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 131/139 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/69 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 65/70 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 131/139 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nate Eaton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 14/15 (93%) | Season 14/15 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HR: 14/15 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0690
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 27/29 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 14/15 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 13/14 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.193 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 120/128 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/65 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 120/128 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0636
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.293 (50 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 102/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Cox Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0816
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 45/49 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/21 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0690
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.438 (108 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 135/145 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 72/76 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 135/145 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.212 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0775
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.443 (153 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 119/129 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/65 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 119/129 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0704
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.379 (61 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 132/142 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/70 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 132/142 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0784
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.272 (16 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/102 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/102 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0780
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.240 (44 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 33 PA | 7/32 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.0% | OPS .617
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 130/141 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 66/72 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 130/141 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 85.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.325 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 117/126 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/65 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 59/61 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 117/126 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0821
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.226 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 123/134 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/70 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 123/134 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0755
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.390 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/53 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0778
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.412 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 83/90 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 83/90 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/113 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/113 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0827
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.453 (69 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 122/133 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 122/133 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0924
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.364 (161 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 108/119 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 108/119 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-900) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0870
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.180 (26 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/115 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 105/115 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0849
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.506 (122 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 97/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0775
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.463 (20 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 120/129 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 120/129 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0851
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 130/141 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/71 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 130/141 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0780
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (65 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 130/141 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/73 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 130/141 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-900) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.600 (86 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/78 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/43 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 72/78 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-900) diff 83.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0851
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.329 (25 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/94 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 86/94 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0886
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.342 (13 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/79 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 72/79 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-900) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0885
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.247 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0918
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.412 (91 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/98 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 89/98 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0943
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.194 (12 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 97/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.265 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 64/70 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/37 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 83.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0870
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.331 (44 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/92 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 84/92 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 83.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0763
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.340 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 121/131 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/64 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 62/67 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 121/131 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1019
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.181 (69 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/108 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 97/108 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0985
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (63 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 119/132 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 119/132 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0918
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.385 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/98 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 89/98 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Roman Anthony Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0930
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.304 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 39/43 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/22 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 19/21 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 39/43 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0915
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.355
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 130/142 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 66/70 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 130/142 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0959
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.318 (45 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 66/73 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/37 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 30/36 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 66/73 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0952
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 76/84 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 41/43 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 76/84 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0991
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/111 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 101/111 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1058
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.233 (57 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/104 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 94/104 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0839
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.433 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 131/143 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/71 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 69/72 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 131/143 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 81.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1096
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.395 (142 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .411
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 132/146 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 68/74 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 132/146 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 81.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1040
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.216 (43 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 113/125 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 61/67 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 113/125 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 126/140 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/72 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 58/68 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 126/140 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Jung Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0968
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/93 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 84/93 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.637 (13 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 32/36 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/19 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 16/17 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 32/36 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.252 (16 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 27/30 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/16 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 11/14 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0979
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.447 (73 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 130/143 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/71 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 130/143 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0901
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.495 (57 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/111 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 101/111 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Juan Brito Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.708 (18 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 20/22 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 10/11 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 10/11 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 20/22 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1048
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (55 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0989
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.327 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/91 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 83/91 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-800) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0993
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.444 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 12 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.361
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 127/141 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 68/70 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 127/141 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Trevino Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 79.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1064
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.288 (28 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 39/43 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/21 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 19/22 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 39/43 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1087
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.297 (82 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/92 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/43 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 82/92 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1056
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (85 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 128/142 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 67/71 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 128/142 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0986
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.213 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 130/142 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 130/142 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1089
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.362 (31 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/101 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 90/101 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-900) diff 79.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1217
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.278 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 12 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1138
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/123 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/65 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 110/123 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.248 (36 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 56/63 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Danny Jansen Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1091
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .697
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/55 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/25 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 24/30 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1197
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.454 (183 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 126/142 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/72 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 59/70 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 126/142 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1081
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.385 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 133/148 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/73 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 68/75 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 133/148 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.370 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/63 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/34 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.447 (72 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 132/148 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/74 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 66/74 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 132/148 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1042
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.282 (57 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/96 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 86/96 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1017
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.492 (145 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 11 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 9.1% | OPS 1.303
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/118 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 106/118 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gary Sanchez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1358
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.206 (39 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 69/80 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/38 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 38/42 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 69/80 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1135
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (71 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 126/141 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 126/141 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 (-700) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1240
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.262 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 108/121 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 108/121 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1069
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.390 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 117/131 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 58/68 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 117/131 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-600) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1200
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.421 (11 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 66/75 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/38 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 66/75 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1230
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.283 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 108/122 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 108/122 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1214
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.310 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 124/140 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 68/73 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 124/140 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-700) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1156
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.407 (66 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 132/147 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/75 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 66/72 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 132/147 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1442
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.132 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1169
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 68/77 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/39 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 68/77 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1294
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.221 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 75/85 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/40 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 75/85 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-900) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1370
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.356 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 128/146 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 69/75 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 128/146 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-800) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1239
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.305 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 18 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .722
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1222
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/90 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 79/90 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1189
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.452 (73 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 128/143 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/74 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 128/143 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1367
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.563 (148 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 120/139 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/70 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 120/139 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1385
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.537 (143 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 113/130 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/70 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 113/130 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1377
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.437 (87 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 121/138 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/75 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 54/63 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 121/138 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1354
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.345 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/96 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 83/96 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1478
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.133 (20 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .432
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/88 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 38/42 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 78/88 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1553
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.527 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 87/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.309 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 127/145 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 71/75 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 56/70 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 127/145 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1373
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.346 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1271
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.562 (121 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/118 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 104/118 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1338
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (101 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 125/142 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/71 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 125/142 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1319
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.288 (104 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 12 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.117
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 126/144 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/74 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 65/70 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 126/144 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1408
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.314 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 123/142 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/73 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 123/142 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1497
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (86 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.225
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 127/147 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/74 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 63/73 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 127/147 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1319
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.614 (31 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 126/144 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/70 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 65/74 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 126/144 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1354
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.600 (18 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/96 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 83/96 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1619
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.406 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/105 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 89/105 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-750) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.294 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 65/74 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 65/74 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1409
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 129/149 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/77 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 129/149 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1399
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.429 (194 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 124/143 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 124/143 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1522
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.445 (84 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 118/138 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 118/138 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1438
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.503 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 40 PA | 9/38 | HR 1 | K% 22.5% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .696
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 40 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 129/146 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/73 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 63/73 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 129/146 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-900) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (91 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 132/148 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/73 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 69/75 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 132/148 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-600) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1631
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.399 (87 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 119/141 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 58/72 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 119/141 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.160 (28 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 26/30 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 15/18 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 26/30 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1702
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.961 (21 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 39/47 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/21 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 20/26 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1654
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.398 (65 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 113/133 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 53/65 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 113/133 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1620
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.246 (106 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 120/142 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/71 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 56/71 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 120/142 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-900) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.437 (13 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 31/36 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 15/18 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 16/18 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 31/36 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-600) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1628
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.374 (58 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/129 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 109/129 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1486
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.628 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 128/148 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/74 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 61/74 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 128/148 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1736
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 13 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .413
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 120/144 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/73 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 57/71 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 120/144 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1717
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.199 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/99 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/43 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 84/99 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Teel Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 23/27 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 10/11 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1742
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.579 (127 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 113/132 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/67 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 113/132 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.678 (42 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 122/143 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/71 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 66/72 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 122/143 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1707
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.353 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 69/82 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 69/82 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1748
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.311 (98 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 119/143 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 58/74 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 119/143 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1655
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (97 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 124/145 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/73 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 124/145 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1735
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.491 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/98 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 81/98 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1940
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (11 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/67 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 27/36 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 54/67 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1917
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.534 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/120 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 98/120 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-370) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1842
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.410 (54 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/114 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 95/114 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1880
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.447 (82 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 108/133 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 54/65 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 108/133 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1806
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 51 PA | 13/46 | HR 1 | K% 21.6% | BB% 7.8% | OPS .703
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 51 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 120/144 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/73 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 58/71 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 120/144 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1771
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/96 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 81/96 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1753
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.385 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/97 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 80/97 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.308 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1712
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.529 (56 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1719
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.489 (179 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 17 PA | 5/16 | HR 2 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.040
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 107/128 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/64 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 107/128 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-700) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.349 (65 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/114 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/114 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 64.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.480 (146 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.050
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 117/139 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 60/69 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 117/139 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-750) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1748
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.482 (85 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 120/143 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/72 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 120/143 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-700) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1825
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/126 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 104/126 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1852
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.462 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 67/81 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/43 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 33/38 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 67/81 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1724
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.414 (82 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 20 PA | 11/19 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS 1.337
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 122/145 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/73 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 58/72 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 122/145 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1833
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.516 (146 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/120 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 99/120 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-750) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1831
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.476 (62 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.069
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 118/142 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 59/75 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 118/142 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2500
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.398 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 114/148 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/73 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 59/75 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 114/148 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2198
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.466 (142 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/91 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 73/91 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2168
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.376 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 113/143 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 56/73 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 113/143 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1931
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.645 (41 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 117/145 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/73 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 54/72 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 117/145 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2349
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.528 (64 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 115/149 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/75 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 58/74 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 115/149 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-750) diff 58.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1910
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.619 (47 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/89 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 72/89 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2059
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.485 (71 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 113/136 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/70 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 113/136 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.535 (130 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/114 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 92/114 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-750) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2095
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.473 (167 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 119/148 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/74 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 57/74 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 119/148 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-700) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2016
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.644 (179 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 104/129 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 53/65 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 104/129 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-750) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1879
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (96 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 30.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 1.433
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 122/149 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/75 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 60/74 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 122/149 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2051
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.647 (64 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/117 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 95/117 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2190
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 1.016 (20 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 111/137 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/74 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 111/137 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-800) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2055
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.710 (41 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 119/146 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/73 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 61/73 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 119/146 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-750) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2214
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.175 (51 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 110/140 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/69 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 54/71 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 110/140 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-700) diff 51.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2128
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.481 (68 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 113/141 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/73 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 51/68 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 113/141 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-450) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2624
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.340 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/141 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/67 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 57/74 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 105/141 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Juan Soto Under 0.5 (-475) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2577
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.265 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.743 (103 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 75, HR vulnerability 25 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/97 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 74/97 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-450) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2703
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.379 (69 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 112/148 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/74 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 56/74 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 112/148 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 (-450) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2447
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.599 (10 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 14 PA | 4/14 | HR 3 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/94 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/44 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 74/94 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2593
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/27 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter HR: 15/19 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 22/27 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-475) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2439
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/123 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/123 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2621
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.820 (49 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 112/145 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/75 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 56/70 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 112/145 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-475) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2550
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.537 (75 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 114/149 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/77 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 53/72 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 114/149 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leonardo Bernal Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2727
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HR: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Aaron Judge Under 0.5 (-350) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2698
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.550 (27 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 47/63 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/30 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 47/63 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-500) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2743
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.237 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 84/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-320) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3077
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (103 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 106/143 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/72 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter HR: 57/71 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 106/143 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Under 5.5 (-124) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-107	-124	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 25.1%, L7 29.1%, season 24.1%, top-6 24.6%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.6% (6/6); lineup K% 26.2% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Miller Over 5.5 (+110) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.12 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.42, BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 54 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .959
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 20.8%, season 22.4%, BVP 20.4%/54 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 4.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cal Quantrill Under 5.5 (-140) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.69 over 6.8 IP (WHIP 0.95, BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.8 IP (HIGH; season 7.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 7.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.11x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 75 PA | K% 10.7% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.2%, L7 18.4%, season 19.4%, BVP 10.7%/75 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 28/30 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Painter Under 5.5 (-121) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-110	-121	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Painter: 51 PA | K% 15.7% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .239 | OPS .727
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.6%, L7 17.6%, season 21.6%, top-6 19.3%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.3% (6/6); lineup K% 21.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-101) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-131	-101	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 50 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .664
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.6%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, top-6 19.0%, BVP 22.0%/50 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.0% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Over 5.5 (-118) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-118	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 211 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .283 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.4%/211 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-150) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-150	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.11 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.54, BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.8%, L7 26.5%, season 21.9%, top-6 25.9%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.9% (6/6); lineup K% 23.7% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (+100) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8157846599236014 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.6%, L7 16.3%, season 18.4%, top-6 17.1% (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 8.7%, L7 8.7%, season 8.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.1% (6/6); lineup K% 15.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.75 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/8 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cal Quantrill Over 1.5 (-147) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7893650683577156 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 6.8 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.8 IP (HIGH; season 7.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 7.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.6% / under 44.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 75 PA | K% 10.7% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.2%, L7 18.4%, season 19.4%, BVP 10.7%/75 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.3%, L7 8.5%, season 8.8%, BVP 9.3%/75 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 6/30 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andrew Painter Over 1.5 (-135) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7303253715146028 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Painter: 51 PA | K% 15.7% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .239 | OPS .727
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.6%, L7 17.6%, season 21.6%, top-6 19.3%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 7.6%, L7 5.6%, season 7.7%, BVP 7.8%/51 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.3% (6/6); lineup K% 21.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Dylan Cease Over 2.5 (+129) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.762230422354296 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.7 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dylan Cease: 45 PA | K% 35.6% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .293 | OPS .941
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 22.6%, L7 30.3%, season 24.6%, top-6 25.6%, BVP 35.6%/45 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.8%, L7 9.2%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.9%/45 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.6% (6/6); lineup K% 25.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trevor Rogers Under 1.5 (-125) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3696488339073294 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 50 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .664
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.6%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, top-6 19.0%, BVP 22.0%/50 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 7.7%, L7 7.2%, season 7.4%, BVP 12.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.0% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tanner Bibee Over 1.5 (-102) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.6172548974828667 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 75 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .188 | OPS .514
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.9%, L7 23.4%, season 21.0%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 18.7%/75 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.1%, L7 7.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.7%/75 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 20.0% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Lopez Over 2.5 (+150) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6818889086207514 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.3 IP (BB% 10.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 37.4% / under 62.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 37 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .355 | OPS 1.110
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.9%, L7 21.6%, season 23.2%, BVP 16.2%/37 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 10.3%, L7 7.1%, season 9.0%, BVP 13.5%/37 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 8/24 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bryce Miller Under 1.5 (-152) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4030556326813277 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 54 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .959
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 20.8%, season 22.4%, BVP 20.4%/54 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.6%, L7 6.1%, season 8.6%, BVP 5.6%/54 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nick Pivetta Under 1.5 (-165) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4034194199112233 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.2 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 44 PA | K% 29.5% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 23.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 29.5%/44 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.6%, L7 6.7%, season 7.4%, BVP 6.8%/44 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (+109) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5908565968271646 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 28 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .435 | OPS 1.326
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.2%, L7 28.8%, season 25.5%, top-6 26.1%, BVP 17.9%/28 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 11.4%, L7 8.1%, season 9.4%, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 26.1% (6/6); lineup K% 25.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Webb Under 1.5 (-130) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4496336931703449 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 211 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .283 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.4%/211 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.9%, L7 10.5%, season 9.3%, BVP 4.3%/211 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael McGreevy Over 1.5 (-141) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5486705996573522 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 25.1%, L7 29.1%, season 24.1%, top-6 24.6%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 11.0%, L7 11.2%, season 9.5%, BVP 0.0%/12 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.6% (6/6); lineup K% 26.2% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (+108) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4530358009515063 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cam Schlittler: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .176 | OPS .622
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.3%, L7 18.5%, season 22.4%, top-6 19.5%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 7.1%, L7 10.5%, season 8.6%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.5% (6/6); lineup K% 22.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-104) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.4868321665253097 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.8 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Eury Pérez: 17 PA | K% 35.3% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .125 | OPS .301
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.3%, L7 21.2%, season 20.6%, top-6 17.2%, BVP 35.3%/17 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 11.5%, L7 12.9%, season 10.0%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.2% (5/6); lineup K% 18.0% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emmet Sheehan Under 1.5 (+111) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4984948956682838 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.5 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.5%, L7 21.3%, season 21.8% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 10.0%, L7 9.6%, season 9.1% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Riley Cornelio Over 0.5 (-105) diff 400.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.5 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 400.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.33)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (MEDIUM; season 25.7 IP/GS; recent 1.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 30.0%, L7 26.3%, season 25.3%, top-6 24.3% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.3% (6/6); lineup K% 26.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (-124) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.27 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.41)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Robert Gasser: 28 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .435 | OPS 1.326
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.2%, L7 28.8%, season 25.5%, top-6 26.1%, BVP 17.9%/28 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 26.1% (6/6); lineup K% 25.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-124) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grant Holmes: 90 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .190 | OPS .631
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.2%, L7 22.8%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 22.2%/90 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 19.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — David Sandlin Over 2.5 (+108) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
DK	2.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 8.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.3%, L7 19.9%, season 20.7%, top-6 21.2% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.2% (6/6); lineup K% 21.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-137) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+103	-137	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.57 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 63 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .207 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.4%, L7 26.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.8%/63 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Under 2.5 (-141) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.6%, L7 16.3%, season 18.4%, top-6 17.1% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.1% (6/6); lineup K% 15.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.12 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cal Quantrill Over 2.5 (-119) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.52 over 6.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.8 IP (HIGH; season 7.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 7.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 75 PA | K% 10.7% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.2%, L7 18.4%, season 19.4%, BVP 10.7%/75 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 5/30 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 (-132) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-132	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.48 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 44 PA | K% 29.5% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 23.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 29.5%/44 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/5 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-168) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+126	-168	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.44 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.97)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Eury Pérez: 17 PA | K% 35.3% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .125 | OPS .301
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.3%, L7 21.2%, season 20.6%, top-6 17.2%, BVP 35.3%/17 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.2% (5/6); lineup K% 18.0% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (+109) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.41 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.67)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 75 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .188 | OPS .514
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.9%, L7 23.4%, season 21.0%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 18.7%/75 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 20.0% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 (-113) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.58 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 25.1%, L7 29.1%, season 24.1%, top-6 24.6%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.6% (6/6); lineup K% 26.2% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Under 2.5 (-135) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.16)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Miller Over 2.5 (+104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.50 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 54 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .959
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 20.8%, season 22.4%, BVP 20.4%/54 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (-129) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-103	-129	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.99 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.19)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 37 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .355 | OPS 1.110
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.9%, L7 21.6%, season 23.2%, BVP 16.2%/37 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Over 2.5 (+110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+110	-146	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.52 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.22)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 211 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .283 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.4%/211 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Under 2.5 (-121) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-110	-121	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.99 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.11)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 50 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .204 | OPS .664
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.6%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, top-6 19.0%, BVP 22.0%/50 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.0% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-273) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+200	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+200	-273	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.259)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.280 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 12 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.028
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/134 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 50/67 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 49/67 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 99/134 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-261) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+195	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+192	-261	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.408 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Sandlin contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 4/16 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 104/148 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 54/74 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 50/74 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 104/148 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-234) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Recommended
DK	1.5	+174	-234	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.288)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.337 (85 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 6/36 (17%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 102/143 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/72 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 51/71 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 102/143 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-242) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -242

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+179	-242	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+175	-235	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.355 (60 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 40 PA | 9/38 | HR 1 | K% 22.5% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .696
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 40 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 14/39 (36%) | L5 9/19 (47%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 103/146 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 50/73 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter Hits: 53/73 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 103/146 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ No HR — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (+700) edge 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 +700

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.478 (raw=1.780, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=+0.00)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.518)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Payton Tolle pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +0.6, xwOBA 0.258, HH% 35.1, mix FF/SI, n=2095)
Noah Cameron pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.4, xwOBA 0.310, HH% 37.8, mix FF/FC, n=2612)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.02x
Kansas City Royals lineup vs pitch mix 1.02x (xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.444, hitters 8, mix FF/SI)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.97x
Boston Red Sox bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.0 IP)
Kansas City Royals bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.8% P(under 1.5 HR) = 56.5%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Payton Tolle): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Noah Cameron): 0.0000 HR/BF
Jac Caglianone: 0.0435 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.1829 lambda
Bobby Witt Jr.: 0.0346 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1489 lambda
Salvador Perez: 0.0342 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1367 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 11.9% (9 batter lines used) edge = +10.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (+700) edge 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 +700

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.478 (raw=1.780, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=+0.00)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.518)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Payton Tolle pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +0.6, xwOBA 0.258, HH% 35.1, mix FF/SI, n=2095)
Noah Cameron pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.4, xwOBA 0.310, HH% 37.8, mix FF/FC, n=2612)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.02x
Kansas City Royals lineup vs pitch mix 1.02x (xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.444, hitters 8, mix FF/SI)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.97x
Boston Red Sox bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.0 IP)
Kansas City Royals bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.8% P(under 1.5 HR) = 56.5%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Payton Tolle): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Noah Cameron): 0.0000 HR/BF
Jac Caglianone: 0.0435 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.1829 lambda
Bobby Witt Jr.: 0.0346 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1489 lambda
Salvador Perez: 0.0342 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1367 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 11.9% (9 batter lines used) edge = +10.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (+835) edge 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 +835

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.580 (raw=1.864, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=+0.00)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.637)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Joe Ryan pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.3, xwOBA 0.295, HH% 40.9, mix FF/ST, n=2155)
Tanner Bibee pitch-quality 1.01x (RV/100 +0.1, xwOBA 0.320, HH% 38.2, mix FC/FF, n=2683)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Cleveland Guardians lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.387, hitters 9, mix FF/ST)
Minnesota Twins lineup vs pitch mix 1.01x (xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.418, hitters 8, mix FC/FF)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.96x
Minnesota Twins bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.7 IP)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.4 IP)
P(no HR) = 20.6% P(under 1.5 HR) = 53.1%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Joe Ryan): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Tanner Bibee): 0.0000 HR/BF
Kody Clemens: 0.0496 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.2084 lambda
Brooks Lee: 0.0405 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1741 lambda
Ryan Jeffers: 0.0427 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1707 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.2% (13 batter lines used) edge = +10.4%

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (+835) edge 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 +835

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.580 (raw=1.864, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=+0.00)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.637)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Joe Ryan pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.3, xwOBA 0.295, HH% 40.9, mix FF/ST, n=2155)
Tanner Bibee pitch-quality 1.01x (RV/100 +0.1, xwOBA 0.320, HH% 38.2, mix FC/FF, n=2683)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Cleveland Guardians lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.387, hitters 9, mix FF/ST)
Minnesota Twins lineup vs pitch mix 1.01x (xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.418, hitters 8, mix FC/FF)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.96x
Minnesota Twins bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.7 IP)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.4 IP)
P(no HR) = 20.6% P(under 1.5 HR) = 53.1%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Joe Ryan): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Tanner Bibee): 0.0000 HR/BF
Kody Clemens: 0.0496 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.2084 lambda
Brooks Lee: 0.0405 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1741 lambda
Ryan Jeffers: 0.0427 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1707 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.2% (13 batter lines used) edge = +10.4%

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Total — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (+101) edge 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7 -127 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +101

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 11 books | 7 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7 -127 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 7.5 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	7	-127	-	Recommended
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	+100	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+100	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+100	-	-
Caesars	7.5	+100	-	-
DK	7.5	+101	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-102	-	-
Fanatics	7.5	+100	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+103	-	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	7.5	-101	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 101)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 94 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

⚠ ⚠ High Total edge 26% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-110) edge 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -142 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7 -110

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 10 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -142 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 7 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	6.5	-142	-	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	-145	-	-
BetMGM	7	-105	-	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7	-110	-	-
BetRivers	7	-112	-	-
BetUS	7	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-110	-	-
Caesars	7	-110	-	-
DK	7	-110	-	Selected
Fanatics	7	-110	-	-
LowVig	7	-107	-	-
MyBookie	7	-109	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bubba Chandler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 107)
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 0.93, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Weather: Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-120) edge 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -120

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 8 books | 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 7.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7	-120	-	-
BetUS	7	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-120	-	-
Caesars	7	-120	-	-
DK	7	-120	-	Selected
Fanatics	7	-120	-	-
LowVig	7	-118	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7	-121	-	-
BetMGM	7.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	7.5	-103	-	-
FanDuel	7.5	+104	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Dylan Cease (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Rogers Centre (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 98 (team 96)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 100 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.03
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-112) edge 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7.5 -118 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8 -112

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 9 books | 7.5 at 2 books | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7.5 -118 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	7.5	-118	-	Recommended
FanDuel	7.5	-130	-	-
BetMGM	8	-110	-	-
BetOnline	8	-115	-	-
BetUS	8	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-110	-	-
Caesars	8	-115	-	-
DK	8	-112	-	Selected
Fanatics	8	-110	-	-
LowVig	8	-113	-	-
MyBookie	8	-111	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+110	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Robert Gasser (LHP) | opp wRC+ 122 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Chase Burns (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 104)
Cincinnati Reds confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 103 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-102) edge 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7 -134 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -102

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 11 books | 7 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7 -134 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 7.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	7	-134	-	Recommended
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	-106	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-105	-	-
Caesars	7.5	-105	-	-
DK	7.5	-102	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-102	-	-
Fanatics	7.5	-105	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-103	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-104	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Logan Webb (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Nick Pivetta (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 99)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Nick Pivetta small sample (21 IP) — stats 26% actual / 74% league avg (regression applied)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-109) edge 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -118 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8 -109

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 7.5 at 8 books | 8 at 4 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -118 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is MyBookie Over 8 -102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-120	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-120	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-118	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-120	-	-
Caesars	7.5	-120	-	-
FanDuel	7.5	-120	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-118	-	Recommended
theScore Bet	7.5	-125	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-105	-	-
DK	8	-109	-	Selected
Fanatics	8	-105	-	-
MyBookie	8	-102	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Stats within normal range

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-115) edge 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 8 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -115

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 10 books | 8.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 8 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 8.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-115	-	-
BetOnline	8	-115	-	-
BetRivers	8	-129	-	-
BetUS	8	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-120	-	-
Caesars	8	-115	-	-
DK	8	-115	-	Selected
Fanatics	8	-115	-	-
LowVig	8	-113	-	Recommended
MyBookie	8	-116	-	-
FanDuel	8.5	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 122 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Cal Quantrill (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 98)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 72%, bullpen 28%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

▸ NRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake NRFI — NRFI (+114) edge 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +114

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0321 after 0.0000 buffer
Andrew Painter / Grant Holmes announced and matched

▸ YRFI — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake YRFI — YRFI (+122) edge 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +122

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.496
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0432 after 0.0100 buffer
Noah Cameron / Payton Tolle announced and matched

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake YRFI — YRFI (+114) edge 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +114

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0351 after 0.0000 buffer
Bubba Chandler / Matthew Boyd announced and matched

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — New York Mets +1.5 1.5 (-143) edge 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM New York Mets 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -143

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: BetMGM New York Mets 1.5 -135 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✗!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Model run margin: +0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+8.20/$100
✓ Cover prob 63.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 7.4% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 4 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -143 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Stats within normal range

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 55% (11 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

GAME BETS — DETAIL

7 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	3:06 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	+101	47.5%	73.3%	+25.8%	$+47.42	11	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-110	50.0%	72.7%	+22.7%	$+38.77	11	Bet on DK
C	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-120	52.0%	74.3%	+22.2%	$+36.21	11	Bet on DK
C	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-112	50.5%	70.5%	+19.9%	$+33.36	11	Bet on DK
C	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	7:21 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-102	48.3%	66.4%	+18.1%	$+31.53	11	Bet on DK
C	New York Mets @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-109	49.9%	67.8%	+17.9%	$+29.91	11	Bet on DK
C	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-115	51.1%	67.2%	+16.1%	$+25.54	11	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (7 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (Total) +25.8%

Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 101)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 94 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.0 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +22.7%

[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bubba Chandler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 107)
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 0.93, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Weather: Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.0 — Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (Total) +22.2%

Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Dylan Cease (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Rogers Centre (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 98 (team 96)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 100 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.03
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.0 — Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +19.9%

Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Robert Gasser (LHP) | opp wRC+ 122 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Chase Burns (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 104)
Cincinnati Reds confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 103 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.5 — San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (Total) +18.1%

Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Logan Webb (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Nick Pivetta (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 99)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Nick Pivetta small sample (21 IP) — stats 26% actual / 74% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 8.0 — New York Mets @ New York Yankees (Total) +17.9%

Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 102 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.0 — Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Total) +16.1%

Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 122 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Cal Quantrill (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 98)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 72%, bullpen 28%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

10 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	2:21 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-125	52.1%	68.0%	+15.9%	$+22.41	6	Bet on DK
B	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (F5)	3:06 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-138	54.4%	69.1%	+14.7%	$+19.22	6	Bet on DK
B	New York Mets @ New York Yankees (F5)	1:36 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-154	56.9%	70.8%	+13.8%	$+16.72	6	Bet on DK
B	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (F5)	1:38 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-125	52.1%	65.7%	+13.6%	$+18.26	6	Bet on DK
C	New York Mets @ New York Yankees (F5)	1:36 PM	F5 ML	New York Mets	DK	+154	37.1%	48.4%	+11.3%	$+22.91	9	Bet on DK
B	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (F5)	7:21 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-140	54.8%	65.3%	+10.4%	$+11.87	6	Bet on DK
B	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (F5)	1:36 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-132	53.5%	62.1%	+8.6%	$+9.15	6	Bet on DK
C	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (F5)	3:06 PM	F5 ML	Kansas City Royals	DK	+135	40.1%	48.7%	+8.6%	$+14.42	9	Bet on DK
B	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	2:21 PM	F5 ML	Pittsburgh Pirates	DK	+135	40.1%	48.6%	+8.6%	$+14.33	9	Bet on DK
C	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (F5)	1:38 PM	F5 ML	Baltimore Orioles	DK	+130	41.1%	49.2%	+8.1%	$+13.17	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (10 play(s))

B Over 3.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 Total) +15.9%

[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.20
Bubba Chandler xFIP 4.20
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 116 (team 107)
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 110 (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.13
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)
Away SP: Bubba Chandler (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 Total) +14.7%

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Payton Tolle xFIP 4.20
Noah Cameron xFIP 4.20
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 101)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP)

B Over 3.5 — New York Mets @ New York Yankees (F5) (F5 Total) +13.8%

F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Cam Schlittler xFIP 4.20
Christian Scott xFIP 4.20
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 119 (team 100)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 110 (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.14
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (F5) (F5 Total) +13.6%

F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Rogers Centre (PITCHER)
Dylan Cease xFIP 4.20
Trevor Rogers xFIP 4.20
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 105 (team 96)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 105 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Dylan Cease (RHP)
Away SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP)

C New York Mets — New York Mets @ New York Yankees (F5) (F5 ML) +11.3%

Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Cam Schlittler xFIP 4.20
Christian Scott xFIP 4.20
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 119 (team 100)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 110 (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.14
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Away SP: Christian Scott (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (F5) (F5 Total) +10.4%

F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER)
Logan Webb xFIP 4.20
Nick Pivetta xFIP 4.20
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 99)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Logan Webb (RHP)
Away SP: Nick Pivetta (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (F5) (F5 Total) +8.6%

F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Grant Holmes xFIP 4.20
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.20
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 112 (team 100)
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 111 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.12
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Grant Holmes (RHP)
Away SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)

C Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 ML) +8.6%

Fenway Park (HITTER)
Payton Tolle xFIP 4.20
Noah Cameron xFIP 4.20
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 101)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Payton Tolle (LHP)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP)

B Pittsburgh Pirates — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 ML) +8.6%

[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.20
Bubba Chandler xFIP 4.20
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 116 (team 107)
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 110 (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.13
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)
Away SP: Bubba Chandler (RHP)

C Baltimore Orioles — Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (F5) (F5 ML) +8.1%

Rogers Centre (PITCHER)
Dylan Cease xFIP 4.20
Trevor Rogers xFIP 4.20
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 105 (team 96)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 105 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Dylan Cease (RHP)
Away SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

1:36 PM · decision fi-f19c76f802f4aa43

NRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +114

Raw / Effective Edge

+3.2% / +3.2%

Away starter: Andrew Painter · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Grant Holmes · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0321 after 0.0000 buffer
Andrew Painter / Grant Holmes announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 4 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · PASSGrade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0321 after 0.0000 buffer

Starter status · PASSAndrew Painter / Grant Holmes announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+110	-145	44.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+102	-135	46.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+114	-146	44.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals

1:36 PM · decision fi-48216c1a74fe6dcd

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -102

Raw Edge

-0.4%

Effective Edge

-1.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -120

Raw Edge

-4.6%

Effective Edge

-5.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Grayson Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Riley Cornelio · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.501
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Grayson Rodriguez / Riley Cornelio announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.501

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGrayson Rodriguez / Riley Cornelio announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ New York Yankees

1:36 PM · decision fi-90488cd7ddfa8ee6

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -120

Raw Edge

-4.0%

Effective Edge

-4.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM +110

Raw Edge

+1.8%

Effective Edge

+1.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +1.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Christian Scott · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cam Schlittler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Christian Scott / Cam Schlittler announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSChristian Scott / Cam Schlittler announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

1:38 PM · decision fi-f839e55d5897b616

YRFI · Grade B

2026 Model Probability

49.1%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Executable Price

Caesars +130

Raw / Effective Edge

+5.6% / +5.1%

Away starter: Trevor Rogers · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Dylan Cease · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.509
Grade B: YRFI effective edge 0.0513 after 0.0050 buffer
Trevor Rogers / Dylan Cease announced and matched

Grade B reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.509

Executable price · PASSGrade B: YRFI effective edge 0.0513 after 0.0050 buffer

Starter status · PASSTrevor Rogers / Dylan Cease announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-150	+115	56.3%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-156	+117	56.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-150	+112	56.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-158	+124	57.8%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-160	+130	58.6%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins

1:40 PM · decision fi-f75811e09810e0f2

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.9%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -125

Raw Edge

-4.6%

Effective Edge

-6.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.1%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

-0.4%

Effective Edge

-1.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Emmet Sheehan · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Eury Pérez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.509
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Emmet Sheehan / Eury Pérez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.509

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSEmmet Sheehan / Eury Pérez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNconfirmed / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-130	-102	52.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

1:41 PM · decision fi-56d24ae9774d803d

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.3%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-2.7%

Effective Edge

-3.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.7%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -102

Raw Edge

-0.8%

Effective Edge

-1.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Hayden Wesneski · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Freddy Peralta · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.503
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Hayden Wesneski / Freddy Peralta announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.503

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSHayden Wesneski / Freddy Peralta announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-124	-108	51.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

2:11 PM · decision fi-1a0b5c59d427f931

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.4%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -120

Raw Edge

-4.1%

Effective Edge

-4.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.6%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +110

Raw Edge

+2.0%

Effective Edge

+2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Chase Burns · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Robert Gasser · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.504
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Chase Burns / Robert Gasser announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.504

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSChase Burns / Robert Gasser announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-125	-107	51.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-120	-106	51.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

2:11 PM · decision fi-d28248c442b31f4a

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -125

Raw Edge

-5.4%

Effective Edge

-5.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +104

Raw Edge

+0.8%

Effective Edge

+0.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +0.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Tanner Bibee · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Joe Ryan · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.501
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Tanner Bibee / Joe Ryan announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.501

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTanner Bibee / Joe Ryan announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-135	+102	53.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-132	+104	53.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

2:16 PM · decision fi-0c18a77c3e3331ba

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -110

Raw Edge

-2.5%

Effective Edge

-3.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +102

Raw Edge

+0.6%

Effective Edge

-0.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.4% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: David Sandlin · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael McGreevy · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
David Sandlin / Michael McGreevy announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDavid Sandlin / Michael McGreevy announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-135	+102	53.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

2:21 PM · decision fi-e0fdec1db4d15c9c

YRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

50.2%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Executable Price

BetOnline +114

Raw / Effective Edge

+3.5% / +3.5%

Away starter: Bubba Chandler · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Matthew Boyd · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0351 after 0.0000 buffer
Bubba Chandler / Matthew Boyd announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · PASSGrade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0351 after 0.0000 buffer

Starter status · PASSBubba Chandler / Matthew Boyd announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-145	+110	55.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-152	+114	56.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-129	-105	52.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-138	+108	54.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

3:06 PM · decision fi-6150adc334875990

YRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

50.4%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +122

Raw / Effective Edge

+5.3% / +4.3%

Away starter: Noah Cameron · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Payton Tolle · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.496
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0432 after 0.0100 buffer
Noah Cameron / Payton Tolle announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.496

Executable price · PASSGrade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0432 after 0.0100 buffer

Starter status · PASSNoah Cameron / Payton Tolle announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNconfirmed / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-150	+115	56.3%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-128	-103	52.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-125	-107	51.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-156	+122	57.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Seattle Mariners @ Athletics

4:06 PM · decision fi-574d8021778f6062

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.4%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -105

Raw Edge

-0.8%

Effective Edge

-2.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.6%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-3.5%

Effective Edge

-5.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Bryce Miller · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jacob Lopez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.504
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Bryce Miller / Jacob Lopez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.504

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBryce Miller / Jacob Lopez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-109	-122	48.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

4:11 PM · decision fi-b5422d1f308f751c

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.1%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -115

Raw Edge

-4.3%

Effective Edge

-6.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.9%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -108

Raw Edge

-1.1%

Effective Edge

-3.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Cal Quantrill · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Eduardo Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.491
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Cal Quantrill / Eduardo Rodriguez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.491

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCal Quantrill / Eduardo Rodriguez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-118	-110	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-118	-108	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

7:21 PM · decision fi-18568dc35b84fb37

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -132

Raw Edge

-6.1%

Effective Edge

-8.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -8.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +120

Raw Edge

+3.8%

Effective Edge

+1.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +1.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Nick Pivetta · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Webb · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-12 · updated 2026-09-13T16:51:02.917761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Nick Pivetta / Logan Webb announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSNick Pivetta / Logan Webb announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-145	+110	55.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-161	+120	57.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-132	+104	53.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 244 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=244
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	1	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+220	-	36.9%	29.1%	+7.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	3	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	32.2%	17.1%	+15.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	2	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	32.1%	17.9%	+14.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	3	Eury Pérez (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	31.7%	17.9%	+13.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	3	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	31.1%	16.4%	+14.7%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	1	Bubba Chandler (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	31.0%	17.9%	+13.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	4	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	30.6%	22.0%	+8.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	3	Andrew Painter (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	30.6%	23.2%	+7.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	4	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	30.5%	17.9%	+12.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	-	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	30.0%	17.1%	+12.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	1	Andrew Painter (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	29.9%	17.1%	+12.8%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Eugenio Suarez	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	-	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+475	-	29.9%	16.4%	+13.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nolan Arenado	Arizona Diamondbacks	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	-	Cal Quantrill (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	29.4%	14.3%	+15.1%	98	-
Strong HR Chance	Leonardo Bernal	St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	-	David Sandlin (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	29.2%	15.0%	+14.3%	98	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	2	Dylan Cease (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	29.2%	17.9%	+11.3%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Mookie Betts	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	1	Eury Pérez (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	28.7%	13.3%	+15.4%	96	-
Strong HR Chance	James Wood	Washington Nationals	Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	1	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	28.3%	23.2%	+5.1%	94	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	3	Hayden Wesneski (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	28.2%	24.6%	+3.6%	94	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	-	Cal Quantrill (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	27.5%	16.4%	+11.1%	92	-
Best HR Chance	Corey Seager	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	-	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	27.4%	17.1%	+10.3%	91	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	New York Mets @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	100	90.7%	-978	Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Ben Rice, Aaron Judge	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	100	90.3%	-937	Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	100	88.8%	-797	Miguel Vargas, Munetaka Murakami, Leonardo Bernal, Alec Burleson	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	100	88.8%	-791	CJ Abrams, James Wood, Zach Neto, Mike Trout	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	100	86.1%	-617	Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez, Jake Bauers, Sal Stewart	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	100	85.8%	-603	Junior Caminero, Yordan Alvarez, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-
Watchlist	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	100	85.1%	-570	Jake Burger, Nolan Arenado, Corbin Carroll, Corey Seager	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	4:06 PM	100	83.5%	-506	Shea Langeliers, Dominic Canzone, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	7:21 PM	98	83.0%	-490	Jackson Merrill, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, Bryce Eldridge	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	100	81.9%	-454	Pete Crow-Armstrong, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn, Alex Bregman	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN	-
Watchlist	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	96	81.2%	-431	Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto, Coby Mayo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	100	81.0%	-426	Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Kyle Stowers, Heriberto Hernandez	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	88	79.4%	-385	Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, Nathaniel Lowe, Brooks Lee	Target Field HR factor 0.95	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 20.6%, P(U1.5) 53.1%
Pass	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	3:06 PM	80	77.2%	-338	Wilyer Abreu, Jac Caglianone, Adley Rutschman, Salvador Perez	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 22.8%, P(U1.5) 56.5%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (+220) HR chance 36.9% | edge +7.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.308, OPS 0.868, ISO 0.282, TB/G 1.94
Statcast: barrel 16.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.3/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.497
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/143 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 18.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.74, whiff 26.7%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.833, K% 33.3% (12 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.074, OPS 0.847, ISO 0.293 (408 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (+450) HR chance 32.2% | edge +15.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.188, OPS 0.884, ISO 0.227, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 10.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.497
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 27/149 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 18.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.74, whiff 26.7%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.433, K% 30.0% (10 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.061, OPS 1.015, ISO 0.300 (392 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Elly De La Cruz — Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (+425) HR chance 32.1% | edge +14.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.202, OPS 0.872, ISO 0.228, TB/G 2.02
Statcast: barrel 15.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.6/117.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.499
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 25/129 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 21.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.315, xERA 4.19, whiff 21.8%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.061, OPS 1.080, ISO 0.310 (165 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch 4-Seam Fastball: xSLG 0.644, xwOBA 0.450 (179 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Max Muncy — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins (+425) HR chance 31.7% | edge +13.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.206, OPS 0.856, ISO 0.245, TB/G 1.64
Statcast: barrel 13.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.6/110.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.472
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 23/136 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.056, OPS 0.858, ISO 0.249 (392 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.485, xwOBA 0.351 (71 PA)
Park HR factor 0.88
Day game start 1:40 PM ET

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Miguel Vargas — Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals (+475) HR chance 31.1% | edge +14.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.205, OPS 0.827, ISO 0.224, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.504
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 27/146 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 16.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.352, xERA 5.38, whiff 20.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.039, OPS 0.773, ISO 0.198 (456 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_rhb: HR/BF 0.0294

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Strong HR Chance Pete Crow-Armstrong — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (+425) HR chance 31.0% | edge +13.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.275, OPS 0.939, ISO 0.287, TB/G 2.18
Statcast: barrel 13.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.6/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.500
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 34/149 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 21.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.309, xERA 4.02, whiff 22.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.066, OPS 0.946, ISO 0.309 (453 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.506, xwOBA 0.379 (77 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

⚠ Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN

Best HR Chance Munetaka Murakami — Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals (+325) HR chance 30.6% | edge +8.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.274, OPS 0.818, ISO 0.265, TB/G 1.69
Statcast: barrel 18.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.8/114.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.454
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 29/113 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 16.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.352, xERA 5.38, whiff 20.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.072, OPS 0.860, ISO 0.296 (345 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0327

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Matt Olson — Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (+300) HR chance 30.6% | edge +7.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.255, OPS 0.823, ISO 0.255, TB/G 1.94
Statcast: barrel 14.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.8/111.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.507
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 35/149 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.20, K% 20.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.327, xERA 4.55, whiff 24.6%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.571, K% 14.3% (7 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.062, OPS 0.841, ISO 0.270 (384 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Myles Straw	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	+1200	0.4%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Drew Cavanaugh	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	7:21 PM	+1000	0.4%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (8 PA)
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	+1100	0.4%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Samad Taylor	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	7:21 PM	+1200	0.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (8 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Alex Call	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	+1100	0.5%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Lara	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+1000	0.5%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Justin Crawford	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	+1200	0.6%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Tyler Tolbert	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	3:06 PM	+1100	0.6%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Jared Triolo	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+1100	0.6%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Wind 10 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN \| Cold recent HR form
Austin Martin	Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	+1100	0.6%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	3:06 PM	Payton Tolle	Noah Cameron	0.95	22.8% MODEL SIGNAL	56.5% MODEL SIGNAL	11.9%	+10.9%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	Joe Ryan	Tanner Bibee	0.95	20.6% MODEL SIGNAL	53.1% MODEL SIGNAL	10.2%	+10.4%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	Eury Pérez	Emmet Sheehan	0.88	19.0%	50.6%	11.2%	+7.8%
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	Dylan Cease	Trevor Rogers	0.96	18.8%	50.3%	8.5%	+10.3%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Matthew Boyd	Bubba Chandler	1.05	18.1%	49.0%	13.9%	+4.2%
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	7:21 PM	Logan Webb	Nick Pivetta	0.82	17.0%	47.1%	-	+0.0%
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	4:06 PM	Jacob Lopez	Bryce Miller	1.00	16.5%	46.3%	-	+0.0%
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	Eduardo Rodriguez	Cal Quantrill	1.02	14.9%	43.3%	-	+0.0%
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	Freddy Peralta	Hayden Wesneski	0.94	14.2%	42.0%	7.0%	+7.2%
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Robert Gasser	Chase Burns	1.08	13.9%	41.4%	9.0%	+5.0%
Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	Riley Cornelio	Grayson Rodriguez	1.02	11.2%	35.8%	5.8%	+5.5%
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	Michael McGreevy	David Sandlin	0.93	11.1%	35.6%	7.3%	+3.9%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	Grant Holmes	Andrew Painter	1.03	9.6%	32.2%	5.6%	+4.0%
New York Mets @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	Cam Schlittler	Christian Scott	1.18	9.3%	31.3%	5.0%	+4.3%

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (20.6%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (53.1%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.580 (raw=1.864, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=+0.00)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.637)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Joe Ryan pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.3, xwOBA 0.295, HH% 40.9, mix FF/ST, n=2155)
Tanner Bibee pitch-quality 1.01x (RV/100 +0.1, xwOBA 0.320, HH% 38.2, mix FC/FF, n=2683)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Cleveland Guardians lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.387, hitters 9, mix FF/ST)
Minnesota Twins lineup vs pitch mix 1.01x (xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.418, hitters 8, mix FC/FF)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.96x
Minnesota Twins bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.7 IP)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.4 IP)
P(no HR) = 20.6% P(under 1.5 HR) = 53.1%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Joe Ryan): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Tanner Bibee): 0.0000 HR/BF
Kody Clemens: 0.0496 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.2084 lambda
Brooks Lee: 0.0405 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1741 lambda
Ryan Jeffers: 0.0427 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1707 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.2% (13 batter lines used) edge = +10.4%

🔬 MODEL Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (22.8%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (56.5%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.478 (raw=1.780, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=+0.00)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.518)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Payton Tolle pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +0.6, xwOBA 0.258, HH% 35.1, mix FF/SI, n=2095)
Noah Cameron pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.4, xwOBA 0.310, HH% 37.8, mix FF/FC, n=2612)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.02x
Kansas City Royals lineup vs pitch mix 1.02x (xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.444, hitters 8, mix FF/SI)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.97x
Boston Red Sox bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.0 IP)
Kansas City Royals bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.8% P(under 1.5 HR) = 56.5%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Payton Tolle): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Noah Cameron): 0.0000 HR/BF
Jac Caglianone: 0.0435 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.1829 lambda
Bobby Witt Jr.: 0.0346 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1489 lambda
Salvador Perez: 0.0342 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1367 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 11.9% (9 batter lines used) edge = +10.9%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	72.5	74.4	78.0	6	Changeup (50% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	68.8	62.2	80.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 45% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.255, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	67.7	66.3	75.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.265, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	66.4	67.8	69.5	4	Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	65.7	52.1	86.5	6	Sweeper (39% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.242, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Riley Cornelio	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels	63.5	72.8	54.0	3	Slider (51% whiff, 50% usage)	Savant whiff 34.9%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins	60.2	67.3	55.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	57.3	54.4	62.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	57.1	51.5	63.5	7	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	56.4	49.1	62.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	56.1	61.6	51.5	6	Slider (44% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	55.8	57.8	56.0	6	Sweeper (31% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	54.5	51.1	59.0	5	Sweeper (39% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	53.7	53.2	54.5	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	53.7	47.7	60.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	53.1	54.0	54.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers	51.4	40.2	61.5	6	Curveball (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	49.2	45.2	53.0	6	Changeup (25% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
David Sandlin	Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals	48.6	50.4	48.5	6	Cutter (26% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	47.3	44.3	52.0	5	Changeup (28% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	47.3	47.4	47.5	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	47.2	49.0	44.0	7	Slider (36% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	46.9	43.2	50.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.0	38.6	55.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	46.0	52.1	41.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	44.2	44.8	42.0	5	Slider (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	43.9	41.8	47.5	5	Changeup (28% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies	40.0	38.9	36.5	6	Curveball (27% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals	38.9	46.5	27.5	4	Changeup (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox	35.4	38.9	31.5	7	Sweeper (28% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	L	19.6%	5.8	6.0	5.9	97	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	L	22.2%	5.8	5.3	6.0	97	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	18.1%	4.6	5.1	5.0	77	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	24.3%	6.3	5.6	6.0	106	deep	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	L	29.3%	5.9	5.7	6.0	99	normal	full	80.00	20.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	18.2%	5.8	5.8	5.8	97	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
David Sandlin	Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	22.6%	4.8	8.2	6.2	80	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	30.6%	4.7	5.5	5.3	79	short	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	R	17.9%	5.2	5.7	5.6	87	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers	R	19.1%	4.1	4.9	4.7	69	short	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies	R	22.4%	4.2	4.3	4.7	70	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	21.7%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	L	22.1%	6.2	5.9	6.0	104	deep	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals	R	20.7%	5.2	4.8	4.9	87	normal	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins	R	28.5%	4.5	4.8	4.8	76	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	23.8%	4.4	5.4	5.2	74	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	22.4%	4.5	5.4	5.2	76	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	24.2%	5.0	5.4	5.3	84	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	R	26.9%	4.7	4.7	4.7	79	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	R	31.3%	6.3	6.0	6.0	106	deep	full	75.00	25.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.0%	6.0	5.5	5.6	101	deep	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	22.4%	5.0	5.3	5.2	84	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	R	27.1%	4.2	4.2	4.8	70	short	full	86.50	13.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	R	20.7%	4.4	6.0	5.7	74	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	R	22.9%	4.3	5.7	5.4	72	short	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox	R	16.9%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	R	20.4%	5.8	5.3	5.4	97	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	20.2%	6.4	7.9	7.6	107	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	R	33.9%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	78.00	22.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Riley Cornelio	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels	R	23.1%	1.9	25.7	6.6	32	short	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.9 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Under	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	15.8	-1.7	10.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.7	74	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Over	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	18.9	1.4	7.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael McGreevy	Michael McGreevy Under	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Over	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Over	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matt Boyd	Matt Boyd Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Payton Tolle	Payton Tolle Over	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	New York Mets @ New York Yankees	17.5	19.1	1.6	8.9%	B	MONITOR	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matthew Boyd	Matthew Boyd Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.4%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	5.8	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

204 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Leonardo Bernal	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	3.45	1.85	0.76	0.84	3.27 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Yandy Diaz	Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.81	1.58	0.67	0.56	2.55 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Michael Arroyo	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.77	0.98	0.71	1.08	2.51 / Over	0.35	season_games=3,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jackson Chourio	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.77	1.30	0.89	0.58	2.37 / Over	0.30	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
CJ Abrams	Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.75	1.06	0.75	0.94	2.64 / Over	0.30	season_games=141,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Drake Baldwin	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.70	1.14	0.75	0.81	2.37 / Over	0.30	season_games=126,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Alec Burleson	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.65	1.14	0.62	0.88	2.56 / Over	0.30	season_games=148,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.62	0.99	0.88	0.76	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=143,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Michael Harris II	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.60	1.22	0.69	0.70	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=143,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Matt Olson	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.58	1.02	0.79	0.77	2.33 / Over	0.30	season_games=149,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.56	1.18	0.81	0.57	2.59 / Over	0.30	season_games=149,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.56	1.21	0.81	0.54	2.63 / Over	0.30	season_games=129,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brice Turang	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.56	1.06	0.72	0.78	2.28 / Over	0.30	season_games=138,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.55	1.05	0.91	0.59	2.05 / Over	0.35	season_games=143,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Luis Garcia Jr.	New York Mets @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.52	1.42	0.60	0.50	2.34 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.50	1.02	0.73	0.76	2.54 / Over	0.30	season_games=149,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.50	1.09	0.57	0.84	2.44 / Over	0.30	season_games=148,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Junior Caminero	Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.49	1.12	0.64	0.73	2.27 / Over	0.30	season_games=148,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brett Bateman	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.48	1.49	0.69	0.30	2.31 / Over	0.30	season_games=30,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.48	1.14	0.69	0.65	2.57 / Over	0.30	season_games=86,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ronald Acuna Jr.	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.48	1.29	0.65	0.54	2.13 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Ben Rice	New York Mets @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.46	1.07	0.80	0.60	2.28 / Over	0.30	season_games=141,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.44	1.31	0.57	0.56	2.21 / Over	0.30	season_games=141,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Trea Turner	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.42	1.08	0.90	0.45	2.16 / Over	0.30	season_games=144,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.42	0.99	0.73	0.70	2.49 / Over	0.30	season_games=146,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.