MLB Bets 2026-09-12

Current generated report

Odds data use · 14113 / 20000 requests used (5887 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	164W–121L–0P	58%	-11.17 u	Last 14 days • 285 settled
Grade A	16W–10L–0P	62%	+0.80 u
Grade B	148W–111L–0P	57%	-11.97 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3896W–2466L–8P	61%	-278.85 u	All-time • 6370 settled
Grade A	284W–224L–0P	56%	-12.95 u
Grade B	3610W–2233L–8P	62%	-259.46 u

159 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-311	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-307	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Alika Williams	0.5	-572	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-248	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-406	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Brandon Nimmo	0.5	-301	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Bryson Stott	0.5	-338	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Carlos Cortes	0.5	-503	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Christian Yelich	0.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-311	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Corey Seager	0.5	-215	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Dane Myers	0.5	-209	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Donovan Walton	0.5	-384	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Drake Baldwin	0.5	-203	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Elias Diaz	0.5	-670	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Garrett Mitchell	0.5	-189	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Ha-Seong Kim	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Hector Rodriguez	0.5	-524	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Henry Bolte	0.5	-394	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-366	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Jackson Chourio	0.5	-337	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Jake Bauers	0.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Jeff McNeil	0.5	-457	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Joc Pederson	0.5	-318	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Jonah Heim	0.5	-446	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Josh Jung	0.5	-403	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Josh Naylor	0.5	-306	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Joshua Baez	0.5	-344	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Justin Crawford	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0.5	-640	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Kyle Teel	0.5	-225	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Lawrence Butler	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-518	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Matt Olson	0.5	-184	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-444	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Michael Arroyo	0.5	-275	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-422	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Nathan Church	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-469	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Nolan Gorman	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-263	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Sal Frelick	0.5	-239	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-237	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Sean Murphy	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Shea Langeliers	0.5	-347	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-381	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Tristan Peters	0.5	-391	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	William Contreras	0.5	-204	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-279	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Batter Walks	Zack Gelof	0.5	-386	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Cesar Perdomo	3.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Luis Castillo	3.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Ranger Suarez	5.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-113	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Zach Thornton	3.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Cesar Perdomo	2.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Clay Holmes	2.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	2.5	-176	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	2.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Ranger Suarez	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Drohan	1.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Walbert Urena	2.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Bryan Woo	5.5	-112	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Alvarez	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Brady Singer	2.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Clay Holmes	1.5	-190	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Kumar Rocker	1.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Bradish	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Leahy	0.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-193	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Peter Lambert	1.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Randy Dobnak	1.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Tanner Gordon	0.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Glasnow	1.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Phillips	1.5	-182	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-11	K Prop	Cade Cavalli	6.5	-132	-	WIN	+0.758	Cade Cavalli: 9.0 (line 6.5)
2026-09-11	K Prop	Andrew Abbott	3.5	-165	-	LOSS	-1.000	Andrew Abbott: 0.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	655	55%	-27.50u	55	55%	-3.30u	307	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	555	58%	+6.68u	39	59%	+0.08u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	745	55%	-51.49u	105	48%	-20.89u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	494	63%	+4.79u	64	75%	+12.73u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	136	49%	-13.29u	6	67%	+1.41u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 655, 14d N 55	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 555, 14d N 39	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 95 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 136, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 77 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 77 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 852 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 819 pitcher(s), 3659 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 608 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 30 team(s), 270 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1059 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 270 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 15 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Kansas City Royals, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 5 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 12 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 370 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 5/5 game(s) with pitching props \| K 8 line(s)/5 game(s); Outs 10 line(s)/5 game(s); Hits Allowed 9 line(s)/5 game(s); Walks 7 line(s)/4 game(s); Earned Runs 10 line(s)/5 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 37, betmgm 5, fanatics 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 1066 market side(s) checked \| 1066 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 5 game(s) fetched \| 5 with ML odds \| 5 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 77 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 5 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 5 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 655 \| batter bats 730 \| batter hand splits 139 \| pitcher HR splits 49 \| batter pitch-type 608 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 89 batter(s) scored \| 5 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Public Intel Signal: 1 provider(s) configured -- shadow mode
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel QC: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (48/48 uncached queries used)
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel Radar: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (32/32 uncached queries used)
✓	READY	Available	MLB Intel Radar: Completed -- 5 topic(s) surfaced
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 1002 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation ready

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	+178	-218	1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+120	-145	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	-111	-108	-1.5 (+150)	1.5 (-182)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-187)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-170	+140	-1.5 (-105)	1.5 (-114)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

MLB Intel Radar

Shadow-mode public intel briefing; does not change picks or grades

Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 89%Entities: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Kyle Leahy workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 57%Entities: Kyle Leahy

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: short leash, opener
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Manual review

Gage Jump workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 56%Entities: Gage Jump

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: pitch count
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Manual review

New York Mets @ New York Yankees game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 56%Entities: New York Mets @ New York Yankees

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, lineup change
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Kumar Rocker workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 55%Entities: Kumar Rocker

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: opener
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Manual review

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 59 Grade B | 330 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (13 play(s))

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -140Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

Pitcher Earned Runs - Brady Singer Over

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.17

Pitcher Earned Runs - Kyle Leahy Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Weston Wilson Under

Projection: 0.8Displayed: Under 1.5 -173Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Cal Raleigh Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.75

Batter Total Bases - Joshua Baez Over

Projection: 2.1Displayed: Over 0.5 -150Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.1

Batter Total Bases - Zack Gelof Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.3

Batter Total Bases - Taylor Ward Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Elly De La Cruz Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Kyle Schwarber Over

Projection: 2.0Displayed: Over 1.5 +124Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jake Bauers Over

Projection: 1.8Displayed: Over 1.5 +134Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.83Recommended: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

Batter Total Bases - Kyle Teel Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.67

Batter Total Bases - Chase Meidroth Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (59 play(s))

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-108) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-108	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-120	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.74 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 0.96, BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 93 PA | K% 34.4% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .148 | OPS .387
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 18.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.5%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 34.4%/93 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (6/6); lineup K% 21.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kyle Leahy Over 0.5 (-171) diff 142.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-171	+128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-175	+125	-

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 58%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/11 & 9/12 & 9/13 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Kyle Leahy vs. CHW – The Cardinals are limiting his pitch counts.
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/12 & 9/13 & 9/14 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Kumar Rocker @ ARI – There is some strikeout upside if you can stomach the short leash and questionable ratios. Cooper Hjerpe (Leahy Opener) vs. CHW – You’re going to see Kyle Leah
Kyle Leahy, Cardinals seek to prolong White Sox slump | Yardbarker Tier 3
Castillo (4-11, 5.57) has a 7.52 ... 20 career starts against St. Louis. The Cardinals counter with right-hander Kyle Leahy (10-4, 3.41)....
Leahy, Cardinals seek to prolong White Sox slump | Jefferson City News-Tribune Tier 3
First, left-hander Sean Newcomb ... to open for right-hander Luis Castillo tonight. Castillo (4-11, 5.57) has a 7.52 ERA in six starts with Chicago since being acquired from the Se
Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 9/12/2026 Today's MLB Picks - Pick Dawgz Tier 3
The Chicago White Sox will send out Sean Newcomb for the start here and Newcomb is 2-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 74 strikeouts this season. Kyle Leahy will start for St.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.2128412962708237 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 3.9 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 8.8 outs/2.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 2.667
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 25.0%, L7 28.3%, season 24.0%, top-6 24.5% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.0%, L7 9.7%, season 9.4% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.5% (6/6); lineup K% 24.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-171) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kumar Rocker Over 1.5 (-196) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -196 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -196 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-196	+147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 57%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prop Picks 09/12/2026 | Desert Duel Under the Roof Tier 3
Kumar Rocker must finish above 3.5 pitcher strikeouts. The selection is built around repeatable opportunity, not the largest payout on the board. Strikeouts are dr
Diamondbacks blast Rangers behind a welcome set of offensive fireworks Tier 3
Saturday, Sept. 12: At Chase Field, 5:10 p.m., Diamondbacks RHP Brandon Pfaadt (7-2, 3.53) vs. Rangers RHP Kumar Rocker (5-11, 4.61).
MLB DFS Slate Breakdown - September 11 - by Jon A Tier 3
But he’s $2100 and the model likes him based on what he did the minors. Don’t expect much at all, but if you’re spending $22,000 at pitcher, you need a couple hitters for less than
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: 9/11/26 | Pitcher List Tier 3
There are two pitchers to highlight. Matthew Liberatore (STL) – SP (Yahoo – 12%) vs CHW · There aren’t a lot of great options Friday—I almost went with Kumar Rocker, but he’s terri
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/11 & 9/12 & 9/13 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Kumar Rocker @ ARI – There is some strikeout upside if you can stomach the short leash and questionable ratios.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.1157747941547345 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.1% / under 37.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.18x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kumar Rocker: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .650
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, split 16.2%, L7 19.6%, season 19.3%, top-6 17.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.4%, split 10.3%, L7 10.3%, season 8.8%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.18x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-196); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brady Singer Under 2.5 (-143) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.97786936348173 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.16x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brady Singer: 131 PA | K% 22.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .248 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 24.1%, L7 23.4%, season 21.6%, top-6 24.1%, BVP 22.1%/131 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.2%, split 11.6%, L7 11.0%, season 10.6%, BVP 11.5%/131 PA (adj 1.16x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.1% (6/6); lineup K% 22.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-125) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 4.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Drohan: 37 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .344 | OPS .932
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, split 23.6%, L7 29.3%, season 25.5%, top-6 26.1%, BVP 27.0%/37 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 26.1% (6/6); lineup K% 26.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.24 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Batter Walks — 53 play(s) (B 53)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-670) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -670 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -670

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -670 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+426	-670	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/79 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/43 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 33/36 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter Walks: 71/79 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Heavy juice (-670); break-even ~87%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-572) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -572 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -572

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -572 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+374	-572	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/78 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/40 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter Walks: 34/38 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter Walks: 70/78 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-572) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-469) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -469 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -469

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -469 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+314	-469	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-550	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 77/87 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter Walks: 37/43 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter Walks: 77/87 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11

⚠ Heavy juice (-469); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Arroyo Under 0.5 (-275) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.12
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 45/50 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/24 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter Walks: 22/26 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-275) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-422) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 123/142 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 62/71 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 123/142 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-422); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-640) diff 69.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -640

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+413	-640	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-800	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 70/81 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 70/81 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-640) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-344) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -344 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -344

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -344 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+238	-344	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 23/26 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 16/19 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-344) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-457) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -457

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+307	-457	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/130 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 105/130 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-457) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-518) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -518 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -518

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -518 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+343	-518	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 12 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 115/140 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 58/72 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 115/140 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-518); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-446) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -446 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -446

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -446 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+300	-446	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .562
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/95 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 72/95 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-446) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 15.9% / Under 84.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -800 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+495	-800	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+390	-1000	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 115/137 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 115/137 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-800) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~89%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-444) diff 65.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -444 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -444

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -444 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+299	-444	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 112/140 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 112/140 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Heavy juice (-444); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-386) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -386 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -386 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+264	-386	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.67x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .450
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/97 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 75/97 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-386) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-240) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+170	-240	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 32/42 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/22 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 13/20 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 32/42 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-240) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-500) diff 62.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 107/128 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 107/128 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-391) diff 61.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+267	-391	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 110/142 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/71 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 53/71 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 110/142 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-391) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-503) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -503 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -503

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -503 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+334	-503	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/112 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 85/112 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-503) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-233) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+166	-233	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 9/11 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 18/23 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-233) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-406) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -406 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -406

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -406 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+276	-406	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 114/142 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 60/74 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 114/142 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-406) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sal Frelick Under 0.5 (-239) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -239 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -239 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+170	-239	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 17 PA | 5/17 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .765
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/101 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 79/101 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-239) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Teel Under 0.5 (-225) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+160	-225	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 12/16 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 8/10 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 20/26 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-225) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-381) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -381 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -381

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -381 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+261	-381	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 23 PA | 9/22 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .889
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 106/143 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 58/74 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 48/69 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 106/143 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-381); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-328) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+228	-328	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/130 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/63 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 49/67 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 97/130 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-328) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-311) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -311

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+217	-311	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 103/141 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/71 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 50/70 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 103/141 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-311); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-490) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -490 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -490

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -490 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+326	-490	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 104/139 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/67 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 55/72 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 104/139 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-490) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-524) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -524

Selected market: Over 21.1% / Under 78.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+346	-524	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 13/17 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 22/29 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-524) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-263) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+185	-263	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 110/148 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 56/76 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 54/72 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 110/148 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-263); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-366) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -366

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+251	-366	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 83/110 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-366) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-248) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -248 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+191	-265	-
DK	0.5	+176	-248	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 106/146 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 58/74 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 106/146 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-248) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 (-347) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+239	-347	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 12 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/93 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/43 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 65/93 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-347) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-394) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -394 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -394

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -394 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+269	-394	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/105 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 79/105 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-394) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-384) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -384 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -384

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -384 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+263	-384	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/78 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 25/37 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 56/78 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-384) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-255) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/108 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 86/108 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-255) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-301) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -301

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+191	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+210	-301	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 101/142 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/71 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 46/71 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 101/142 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-301); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-237) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+168	-237	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 89/127 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/65 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 89/127 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-237) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Jung Under 0.5 (-403) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -403

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+274	-403	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/92 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/42 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 65/92 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-403); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-318) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -318

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+221	-318	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/135 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/67 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 49/68 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 95/135 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-318); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-337) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 17 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 52.9% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .485
BVP walk adjustment: 0.88x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/58 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 80/113 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-337) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-270) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+190	-270	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 26 PA | 2/24 | HR 1 | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .362
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 96/140 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/70 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 46/70 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 96/140 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-270) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-209) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+150	-209	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/107 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 81/107 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-209) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-338) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+234	-338	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/141 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/70 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 48/71 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 94/141 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Heavy juice (-338); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-152) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -152

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
DK	0.5	-152	+110	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 21 PA | 1/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 38.1% | OPS .736
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/132 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/67 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 38/65 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Walks: 64/132 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.66

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-189) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -189 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -189

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -189 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+136	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/132 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/70 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 39/62 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 85/132 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-189) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-203) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+153	-209	-
DK	0.5	+145	-203	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/125 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/67 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 84/125 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Heavy juice (-203); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-311) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -311

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+217	-311	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 113/147 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/74 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 56/73 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 113/147 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-311) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-146) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -146

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+118	-159	-
DK	0.5	+106	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 18 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .653
BVP walk adjustment: 0.86x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 69/107 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-184) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+133	-184	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/148 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/76 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 47/72 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 97/148 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Heavy juice (-184); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-279) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+196	-279	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/46 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 60/96 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Heavy juice (-279); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-204) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+146	-204	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .445
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 90/136 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 42/64 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 90/136 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-204) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-296) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/76 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/38 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 23/38 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 51/76 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-296) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-307) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+214	-307	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/147 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/73 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 50/74 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 99/147 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-307) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-215) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+154	-215	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/88 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 21/47 under 0.5 (45%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 52/88 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

⚠ Heavy juice (-215); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-306) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	-
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/138 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/69 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 100/138 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-306) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5	-115	-105	-
BetUS	5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	5	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	5	-112	-109	-
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-140	SelectedRecommended

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 4.02
Bryan Woo xFIP 3.62
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 100)
Seattle Mariners confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (330 signal(s))

▸ Pitcher Walks — 4 play(s) (A 1 | C 3)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — Gage Jump Over 1.5 (-174) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-174	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 57%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Seattle Mariners vs Athletics Prop Picks 09/12/2026 | West Coast Pitching Test Tier 3
The expected pitching matchup is Bryan Woo for the road club and Gage Jump for the home club. Woo has 158 strikeouts in 156.1 innings across 27 starts with a 4.03 ERA and 1.06 WHIP
Mariners vs. Athletics Prediction, Odds & Analysis Tier 3
The 9.5 total is not an absurd number. Jump’s walk rate — 53 BB in 111 IP — gives the market legitimate reason to anticipate crooked innings. Free passes inflate p
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics Over/Under Prediction September 12: Tony Tellez Backs the Over in the AL West Tier 3
Away from Seattle’s pitcher-friendly park, he has been far more hittable, and that road number is central to the over case. Gage Jump answers for the Athletics with 19 star
Mariners vs Athletics Prediction for September 12: Will Offenses Shine? - TheSpread.com Tier 3
Six days ago in Seattle, Woo threw eight scoreless innings against these Athletics, allowing one hit with nine strikeouts on 102 pitches. That start rescued the Ma
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/11 & 9/12 & 9/13 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Ethan Pecko (Opener) @ TBR – Pecko doesn’t have enough in his back pocket to get him out of jams when the Shag Rug appears.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.0519787839563195 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gage Jump: 31 PA | K% 29.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .345 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.0%, L7 22.2%, season 23.3%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 29.0%/31 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 10.2%, L7 6.7%, season 9.0%, BVP 0.0%/31 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (6/6); lineup K% 22.1% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-121) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8273760503311356 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Drohan: 37 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .344 | OPS .932
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, split 23.6%, L7 29.3%, season 25.5%, top-6 26.1%, BVP 27.0%/37 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 12.0%, L7 9.0%, season 9.5%, BVP 13.5%/37 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 26.1% (6/6); lineup K% 26.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bryan Woo Under 1.5 (-219) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -219 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -219

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -219 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.2098202186015086 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.6 IP (BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 35.6% / under 64.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 93 PA | K% 34.4% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .148 | OPS .387
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 18.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.5%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 34.4%/93 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.6%, L7 6.0%, season 8.6%, BVP 5.4%/93 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (6/6); lineup K% 21.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Brandon Pfaadt Under 1.5 (-127) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4178865803977372 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .845
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.6%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.8%, L7 9.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 2.1%/48 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 22.2% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 77 play(s) (A 7 | B 22 | C 48)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-136) diff 89.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 69%

Late public intel raises lineup, rest, platoon, or availability risk for this batter prop.

Intel Sources

The 10 players who leveled up this season -- and how it changed their teams' fortunes Tier 2
How he has changed the Brewers' fortunes: The Brewers are still last in the majors in home runs, but Bauers leads the team while ranking second to Brice Turang in RBIs despite
Milwaukee Brewers make MLB history with Jackson Chourio, Bryce Turang's help - Bolavip US Tier 3
At 92-56, the club has reached a defining stretch in its season, powered by breakout stars Jackson Chourio and Bryce Turang. Phillies’ Jesus Luzardo scratched from start vs. Braves
Brewers Grab Attention With Sudden William Contreras Move | Yardbarker Tier 3
Jackson Chourio leads off, Brice Turang hits second, Jake Bauers is third, Christian Yelich is the designated hitter in the cleanup spot, and Contreras — the club’

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.503 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 19 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 15.8% | OPS 1.340
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/137 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 44/74 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 37/63 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 81/137 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Late public intel raises lineup, rest, platoon, or availability risk for this batter prop.

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (-129) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

Sources found, but no material batter availability or role signal matched.

Intel Sources

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. The Athletics | Lookout Landing Tier 3
The biggest reason why the Athletics have struggled so much since June is because their lineup has been absolutely gutted by injuries; Brent Rooker (knee), Shea Langeliers (knee),

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.482 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 12 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/93 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/43 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 52/93 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-129) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.447 (72 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/147 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/74 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 33/73 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 67/147 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-143) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.384 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/132 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/68 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 30/64 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 56/132 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-130) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.317 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/138 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 35/69 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.99 | Day Batter HRR: 65/138 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (-118) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.440 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-116) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/130 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/62 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 29/68 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 50/130 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leonardo Bernal Over 1.5 (+109) diff 112.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 3.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 112.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 3.20
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 9/10 (90%) | Season 9/10 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HRR: 9/10 over 1.5 (90%), avg 3.20

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-108) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.401, xSLG 0.598 (45 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/128 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/64 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 39/64 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 77/128 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.35

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-131) diff 65.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.506 (77 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 83/147 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/73 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 45/74 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 83/147 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-125) diff 62.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.460, xSLG 0.663 (46 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/145 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/73 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 32/72 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.01 | Day Batter HRR: 74/145 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-120) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.548 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 21 PA | 1/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 38.1% | OPS .736
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/132 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/67 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 61/132 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-135) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.388 (60 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .445
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/136 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/72 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 73/136 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-141) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+110	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.335, xSLG 0.458 (59 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/127 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/63 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.54 | Away Batter HRR: 32/64 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 68/127 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-113) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.326 (72 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/117 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 43/61 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 71/117 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-112) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.413 (22 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 33 PA | 6/23 | HR 2 | K% 21.2% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .976
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/142 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.49 | Away Batter HRR: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 68/142 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-118) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.403 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 12 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 79/140 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 47/68 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 32/72 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 79/140 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-134) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.440 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 18 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .653
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-118) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.383, xSLG 0.531 (86 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 72/142 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/71 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 72/142 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-122) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.540 (74 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 80/148 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/76 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 39/72 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 80/148 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-126) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.342 (74 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/125 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/67 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 75/125 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-123) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-123	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.460 (87 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/147 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/72 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 42/75 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 71/147 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-137) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-137	+104	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.482 (85 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/142 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 37/71 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 69/142 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-119) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.196, xSLG 0.242 (18 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 23 PA | 9/22 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 70/143 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/74 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 70/143 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+106) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.429 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .450
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/97 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 50/97 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-117) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.608 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 65/142 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 65/142 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-128) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.402 (54 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 73/148 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/76 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 35/72 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 73/148 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-117) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.184, xSLG 0.217 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 41/88 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/41 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 41/88 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-115) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.338 (73 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/143 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/70 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 31/73 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 62/143 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joshua Baez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.485, xSLG 0.820 (13 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
Player context: Away Batter HRR: 10/19 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 13/26 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+102) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-107	-127	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.418 (86 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/147 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/74 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 41/73 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 77/147 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-130) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.321 (90 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 88/144 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/72 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 48/72 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.72 | Day Batter HRR: 88/144 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Weston Wilson Under 1.5 (-173) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.89
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.279 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 44/61 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/34 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter HRR: 17/27 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter HRR: 44/61 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+104) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.481 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (+100) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.413, xSLG 0.567 (24 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/92 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 over 1.5 (71%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 53/92 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (-106) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.527 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/132 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 58/132 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Under 2.5 (-148) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.410 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 42/54 under 2.5 (78%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter HRR: 83/113 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-102) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.199, xSLG 0.204 (39 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .686
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/148 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/75 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 40/73 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 79/148 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-117) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-117	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.312 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/127 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 27/62 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 60/127 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-118) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.336 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/141 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/71 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 38/70 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 74/141 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.94

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-108) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.550 (17 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/141 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 29/70 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 64/141 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Teel Over 1.5 (-110) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 7/16 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 6/10 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 13/26 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+106) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.418, xSLG 0.531 (18 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/96 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 47/96 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-162) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.87 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.445 (84 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/137 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 48/70 under 2.5 (69%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 50/67 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 98/137 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+118) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.423 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 66/139 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 34/70 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 66/139 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (-104) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.276 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/139 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/67 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 34/72 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 70/139 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+116) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.413 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/130 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 32/67 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 56/130 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+118) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.512 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/141 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/67 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 38/74 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 65/141 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+107) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.276 (87 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/138 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/69 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 64/138 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (-105) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.377 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/62 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/32 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Under 1.5 (-132) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.22
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.418 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter HRR: 73/107 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Under 1.5 (-151) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.397 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/58 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter HRR: 75/112 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-102) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.408 (64 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/140 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/72 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 71/140 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-133) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/95 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 48/95 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Under 1.5 (-110) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.300 (43 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/108 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 68/108 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+107) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.274 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/79 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/42 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 12/37 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 35/79 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 (+119) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.85 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Base projection 2.58 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.506 (52 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 17 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 52.9% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .485
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/113 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/58 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.67 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 50/113 over 2.5 (44%), avg 2.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Under 1.5 (-158) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.200, xSLG 0.259 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .562
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/95 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 57/95 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Gorman Under 1.5 (-168) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.429 (25 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/76 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/38 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter HRR: 23/38 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter HRR: 46/76 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (+115) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.408 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/142 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/71 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter HRR: 56/142 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Under 1.5 (-147) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.223 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/78 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/41 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter HRR: 19/37 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 46/78 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — David Hamilton Under 1.5 (-151) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.144, xSLG 0.202 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 12 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .962
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter HRR: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 73/110 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Under 1.5 (-120) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.422 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 26 PA | 2/24 | HR 1 | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .362
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 85/140 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/70 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 48/70 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter HRR: 85/140 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Under 2.5 (-144) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+113	-150	-
DK	2.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.29 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.385 (86 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 93/140 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 49/69 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.99 | Away Batter HRR: 44/71 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 93/140 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.P. Crawford Under 1.5 (+107) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-143	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.195, xSLG 0.223 (56 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/103 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 63/103 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Thomas Saggese Under 1.5 (-142) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.380 (15 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 30/44 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/20 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter HRR: 15/24 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 30/44 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Under 1.5 (-166) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.394 (58 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 79/128 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 79/128 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Under 1.5 (-168) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.270 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/110 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 64/110 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.353 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 69/141 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 34/71 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 69/141 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Under 1.5 (-130) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.358 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/135 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 46/67 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 40/68 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 86/135 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (-103) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.334 (32 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 28/77 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/42 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 15/35 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 28/77 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-160) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.259 (72 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/124 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/62 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 33/62 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 63/124 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+118) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.432 (45 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/91 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/42 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 15/49 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 29/91 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.49

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Frelick Over 1.5 (-118) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.280 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 17 PA | 5/17 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .765
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/101 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter HRR: 36/101 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-143) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.407 (66 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 83/146 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/74 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 41/72 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 83/146 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Under 1.5 (-157) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.356 (63 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .629 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/117 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter HRR: 31/59 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 72/117 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 1.5 (-178) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.513 (39 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/78 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/40 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 27/38 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter HRR: 47/78 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ K Prop — 7 play(s) (B 1 | C 6)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryan Woo Over 5.5 (+108) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-
MyBookie	5.5	+105	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 19.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.3, proj 6.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.292 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Cory Blaser — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 93 PA | K% 34.4% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .148 | OPS .387
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 93 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 18.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.5%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 34.4%/93 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 24%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.8% (6/6); lineup K% 21.0% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.85
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 28.2% vs season 25.0%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 3.5 (-129) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	3.5	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	3.5	-121	-114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 22.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.77K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Kumar Rocker: K/9 8.8, proj 4.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 26.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kumar Rocker: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .650
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, split 16.2%, L7 19.6%, season 19.3%, top-6 17.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 19.6%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.70
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Pfaadt Over 4.5 (+113) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	Recommended
MyBookie	4.5	+108	-149	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.79K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Brandon Pfaadt: K/9 6.2, proj 5.3K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .845
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.6%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Texas Rangers 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 33%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 25.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 22.2% (9/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/26 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.96
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Drohan Over 5.5 (-129) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-115	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-
MyBookie	5.5	-119	-116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.61K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Drohan: K/9 9.2, proj 6.1K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Gabe Morales — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 34.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Drohan: 37 PA | K% 27.0% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .344 | OPS .932
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, split 23.6%, L7 29.3%, season 25.5%, top-6 26.1%, BVP 27.0%/37 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 25.9%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 34%; L7 team K% 29.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 26.1% (6/6); lineup K% 26.0% (9/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/28 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.11
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Mahle Over 4.5 (-115) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	-115	-110	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-108	-118	-
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-
MyBookie	4.5	-104	-133	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.5% / under 49.5%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Tyler Mahle: K/9 8.3, proj 4.9K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Split-Finger (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Hamari — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Mahle: 121 PA | K% 19.0% | BB% 9.9% | AVG .267 | OPS .693
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 121 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.3%, L7 23.0%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 19.0%/121 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 80%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 19.5% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.17
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gage Jump Over 5.5 (+112) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -185 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -185 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-185	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-
MyBookie	5.5	+104	-144	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Gage Jump: K/9 9.4, proj 5.8K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Cory Blaser — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gage Jump: 31 PA | K% 29.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .345 | OPS .667
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.0%, L7 22.2%, season 23.3%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 29.0%/31 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Seattle Mariners 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.0%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.7% (6/6); lineup K% 22.1% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.58
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brady Singer Over 4.5 (-107) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-109	-119	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-107	-119	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-105	-125	-
MyBookie	4.5	-113	-123	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Brady Singer: K/9 7.2, proj 4.6K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.348 | top pitch: Sweeper (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Gabe Morales — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brady Singer: 131 PA | K% 22.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .248 | OPS .781
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 131 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 24.1%, L7 23.4%, season 21.6%, top-6 24.1%, BVP 22.1%/131 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 58%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.1% (6/6); lineup K% 22.0% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.29
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 2 play(s) (B 1 | C 1)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Over 17.5 (-165) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.58 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 18 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-145	+105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	17.5	-165	+121	-
DK	17.5	-165	+124	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-172	+124	-
BetOnline	18	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 18.188 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.62 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.58 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 93 PA | K% 34.4% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .148 | OPS .387
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 18.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.5%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 34.4%/93 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.6%, L7 6.0%, season 8.6%, BVP 5.4%/93 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (6/6); lineup K% 21.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Pfaadt Over 17.5 (-133) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	17.5	-145	+105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-128	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-133	+100	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	+100	-
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.618 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .845
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.6%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.8%, L7 9.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 2.1%/48 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 22.2% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 13.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +5.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 37 play(s) (B 2 | C 35)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-114) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	-
DK	0.5	-114	-121	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/113 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 53/113 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 (+109) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.4% / Under 55.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
DK	0.5	+109	-150	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/140 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/69 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 23/71 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 50/140 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-328) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+227	-328	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 33/44 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/20 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 16/24 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 33/44 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-297) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+207	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 12 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .962
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 84/110 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-359) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+247	-359	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 100/141 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 47/74 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 100/141 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 (-122) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -122

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-122	-113	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/103 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Walks: 17/52 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 43/103 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.59

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Juan Brito Under 0.5 (-313) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -313

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+218	-313	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 8/10 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 16/21 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-368) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+253	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/91 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/42 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 68/91 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-287) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+201	-287	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 93/139 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/69 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 44/70 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 93/139 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+129) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+126	-170	-
DK	0.5	+129	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .686
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 76/148 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/75 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 37/73 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 76/148 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.69

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-300) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+210	-300	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/78 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/40 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 28/38 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 58/78 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (+108) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	-
DK	0.5	+108	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 33 PA | 6/23 | HR 2 | K% 21.2% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .976
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/142 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/72 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 41/70 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 74/142 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-228) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+162	-228	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 47/61 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/34 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 19/27 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 47/61 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-218) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -218 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -218 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+156	-218	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/141 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/71 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 47/70 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 95/141 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-233) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+165	-233	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 43/62 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/32 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 15/30 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 43/62 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (+119) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+119	-165	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/143 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/70 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 33/73 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 65/143 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.59

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-268) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/124 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/62 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 40/62 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 86/124 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-233) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+166	-233	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/79 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/42 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 23/37 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 48/79 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-147) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
DK	0.5	+106	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .629 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/117 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 79/117 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-207) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+148	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/132 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 50/64 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 97/132 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-105) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+108	-145	-
DK	0.5	-105	-131	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 19 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 15.8% | OPS 1.340
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/137 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/74 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 26/63 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 63/137 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-290) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+189	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+203	-290	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/147 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/74 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 51/73 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 96/147 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-324) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -324

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+225	-324	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 98/138 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 47/69 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 98/138 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pavin Smith Under 0.5 (-270) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -270 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+190	-270	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 12/16 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 8/12 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 20/28 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-248) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+154	-209	-
DK	0.5	+176	-248	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/128 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/64 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 43/64 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 78/128 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-294) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/137 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/70 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 48/67 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 97/137 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-213) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -213 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.8% / Under 63.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -213 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -213; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+152	-213	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 86/127 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/63 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 47/64 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 86/127 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-201) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+144	-201	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/95 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/50 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 27/45 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 57/95 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leonardo Bernal Under 0.5 (-271) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+191	-271	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 7/10 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-204) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+146	-204	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 2.314 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/113 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/58 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 70/113 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-101) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	-101	-137	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.73
Base projection 0.73 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.73
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 60/112 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (+139) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +139

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+139	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/77 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/42 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 8/35 over 0.5 (23%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 31/77 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+252) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +252 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +252

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +252 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+252	-367	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/119 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/59 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 25/60 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 55/119 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 (+161) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +161

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+161	-226	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 58/142 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/71 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 30/71 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 58/142 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-168) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+139	-190	-
DK	0.5	+121	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 93/147 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/72 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 43/75 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 93/147 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-185) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+133	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 77/145 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/73 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 40/72 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 77/145 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Over 0.5 (+144) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+144	-201	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 23/61 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 44/117 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 95 play(s) (B 4 | C 88 | D 3)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 0.5 (-164) diff 206.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-165	+119	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-175) diff 204.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
MyBookie	0.5	-165	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.527 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/132 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/70 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 36/62 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 70/132 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-190) diff 109.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -177 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -177 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+137	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	-
MyBookie	0.5	-177	+127	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 109.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.223 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/78 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/41 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 21/37 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 40/78 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 109.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 109.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 (+109) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.482 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 12 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/93 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/43 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 44/93 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.01

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joshua Baez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 321.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 321.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.820 (13 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Away Batter TB: 11/19 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 16/26 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.96

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 321% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-125) diff 263.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-135	+100	-
MyBookie	0.5	-133	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 263.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.481 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 66/112 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 66/112 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.70

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 263% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-120) diff 242.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
MyBookie	0.5	-128	-107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 242.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.423 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 77/139 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/69 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 40/70 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 77/139 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.62

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-185) diff 205.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+137	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-180	+128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.512 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/141 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/67 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 46/74 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 85/141 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 0.5 (-165) diff 197.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.429 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .450
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/97 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 25/44 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 63/97 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 197.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-175) diff 196.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	-
MyBookie	0.5	-171	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 196.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.276 (87 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 85/138 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/69 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 39/69 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 85/138 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 196.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 196.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-155) diff 175.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+120	-
MyBookie	0.5	-154	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 175.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.408 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/142 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/71 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 39/71 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 74/142 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 175.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 175.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 176% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (-130) diff 170.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-130	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.299 (59 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 66/119 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/59 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 32/60 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 66/119 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 (-165) diff 169.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
MyBookie	0.5	-156	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.269 (27 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 89/142 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/74 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 41/68 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 89/142 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 169.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 169% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-135) diff 167.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+101	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-138	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 70/130 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/63 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 37/67 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 70/130 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 168% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 165.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
MyBookie	0.5	-130	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.204 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/12 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 9/17 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 16/29 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 165.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 161.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
MyBookie	0.5	-130	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 161.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.231 (65 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 2.314 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 59/113 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 161.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 161.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 162% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-185) diff 153.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
MyBookie	0.5	-182	+130	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 153.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.274 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/79 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/42 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 23/37 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 47/79 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 153.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 153.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 154% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 (-175) diff 150.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
MyBookie	0.5	-168	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.356 (63 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .629 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/117 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 39/59 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 68/117 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 150.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 150.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 (-172) diff 147.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.6% / Under 40.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-174	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.287 (49 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/131 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/66 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 42/65 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 77/131 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-155) diff 147.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
MyBookie	0.5	-149	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (39 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/78 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/40 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 20/38 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter TB: 44/78 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-150) diff 145.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
MyBookie	0.5	-149	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (45 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/91 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 45/91 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-155) diff 142.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
MyBookie	0.5	-162	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.407 (66 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/146 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/74 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 34/72 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 78/146 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 142.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 142.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 0.5 (-185) diff 139.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
MyBookie	0.5	-173	+124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.353 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 90/141 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/70 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 42/71 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 90/141 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 139.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (-145) diff 137.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
MyBookie	0.5	-144	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 137.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.259 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .562
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/95 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/48 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 53/95 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 137.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 137.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-160) diff 135.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
MyBookie	0.5	-154	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 135.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.377 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/62 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/32 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 23/30 over 0.5 (77%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 35/62 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 135.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 135.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (-196) diff 126.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -196

Selected market: Over 62.2% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+148	Selected
MyBookie	0.5	-195	+139	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.336 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/123 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/63 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 27/60 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter TB: 61/123 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 126.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Thomas Saggese Over 0.5 (-165) diff 118.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
MyBookie	0.5	-160	+116	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.380 (15 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 21/44 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/20 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter TB: 12/24 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 21/44 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 118.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 (-185) diff 116.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+132	-
MyBookie	0.5	-165	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 116.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.270 (11 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 59/110 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 116.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 116.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-192) diff 115.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is MyBookie Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+145	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 115.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (72 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 79/137 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/75 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 39/62 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 79/137 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 115.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 115.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-165) diff 113.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	-
MyBookie	0.5	-152	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 113.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.394 (58 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/128 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/60 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 41/68 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 70/128 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 113.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 113.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-165) diff 110.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	-
Caesars	0.5	-176	+132	-
MyBookie	0.5	-173	+124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 110.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 60/112 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 110.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 110.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-165) diff 106.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
MyBookie	0.5	-162	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 106.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.259 (72 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/124 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/62 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 35/62 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 74/124 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 106.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 106.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 (-150) diff 104.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
MyBookie	0.5	-138	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 104.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.429 (25 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/76 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/38 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 19/38 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 38/76 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 104.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 104.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-140) diff 104.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
MyBookie	0.5	-124	-111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 104.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.99
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.637 (17 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 36/79 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/43 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 15/36 over 0.5 (42%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 36/79 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 104.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 104.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-150) diff 103.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-149	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 103.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.95
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.202 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 12 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .962
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 52/110 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 103.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 103.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Juan Brito Over 0.5 (-115) diff 91.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
MyBookie	0.5	-119	-116	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 5/11 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 4/10 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter TB: 9/21 over 0.5 (43%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 91.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 91.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-150) diff 88.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
MyBookie	0.5	-149	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.94 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.99
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.329 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/137 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/71 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 40/66 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 79/137 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 88.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 88.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 0.5 (-115) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
MyBookie	0.5	-121	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.99
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.089 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/78 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/40 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 15/38 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter TB: 37/78 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 79.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 79.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-167) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.7% / Under 41.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	0.5	-167	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.91
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.237 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/128 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/63 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 29/65 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter TB: 56/128 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-105) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	-110	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.506 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 17 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 52.9% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .485
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/113 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 46/113 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.08

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-190) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-185	+132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.327 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/87 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/44 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter TB: 42/87 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+129) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+131	-
MyBookie	0.5	-173	+124	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.598 (45 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/128 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.20 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 30/64 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 61/128 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Under 1.5 (-200) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
MyBookie	1.5	+137	-192	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.93
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/107 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/52 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter TB: 82/107 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Under 1.5 (-200) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	Recommended
MyBookie	1.5	+142	-199	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.300 (43 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/55 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 82/108 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leonardo Bernal Over 1.5 (+145) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
MyBookie	1.5	+147	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Day Batter TB: 6/10 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.10

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-120) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
MyBookie	0.5	-104	-133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.382 (11 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 31/42 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/22 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter TB: 16/20 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter TB: 31/42 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+124) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
MyBookie	0.5	-156	+112	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.413 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 33 PA | 6/23 | HR 2 | K% 21.2% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .976
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/142 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/72 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter TB: 27/70 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 61/142 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+121) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+123	-171	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.503 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 19 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 15.8% | OPS 1.340
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/137 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/74 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 56/137 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Under 1.5 (-167) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+126	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.422 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 26 PA | 2/24 | HR 1 | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .362
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 98/140 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/70 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 55/70 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter TB: 98/140 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Weston Wilson Over 0.5 (-135) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (14 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 23/61 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/34 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter TB: 11/27 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter TB: 23/61 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+114) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+117	-163	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.663 (46 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/145 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/73 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 27/72 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 57/145 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Frelick Under 1.5 (-203) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+148	-200	Recommended
DK	1.5	+152	-203	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+144	-204	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.280 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 17 PA | 5/17 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .765
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/101 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/48 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 75/101 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Under 1.5 (-196) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 1.5 -196 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 1.5 -196 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 -196; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	SelectedRaw BestVerify
MyBookie	1.5	+139	-196	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.216 (16 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 29/43 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/23 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 13/20 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 29/43 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+115) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+114	-158	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.531 (86 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 60/142 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/71 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 27/71 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 60/142 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+125) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+123	-171	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.540 (74 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 71/148 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/76 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 35/72 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 71/148 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+106) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+107	-148	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.458 (59 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 59/127 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 59/127 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.P. Crawford Under 1.5 (-181) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.223 (56 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/103 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/51 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 78/103 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 (-175) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
MyBookie	1.5	+132	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.334 (32 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/77 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 24/35 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 54/77 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+107) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+109	-152	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.506 (77 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 67/147 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/73 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 39/74 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 67/147 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-165) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	Recommended
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+117	-163	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 87/130 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/62 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 45/68 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 87/130 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+134) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
MyBookie	0.5	-158	+114	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.548 (34 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 21 PA | 1/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 38.1% | OPS .736
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 49/132 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/67 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 27/65 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 49/132 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+130) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+128	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (86 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/147 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/74 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 31/73 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 61/147 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Teel Under 1.5 (-196) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -196 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.67 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -196 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+126	-
MyBookie	0.5	-162	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 0.67 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/16 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 6/10 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 18/26 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+117) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+128	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.482 (85 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 60/142 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/71 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 60/142 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+126) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+114	-158	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.403 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 12 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 66/140 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/68 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 31/72 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 66/140 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-112) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	-111	-124	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.385 (86 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/140 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/69 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 31/71 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 53/140 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Under 1.5 (-183) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+121	-168	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.358 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/135 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/67 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 47/68 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 95/135 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-203) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	Recommended
DK	1.5	+151	-203	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+147	-208	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.338 (73 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/143 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/70 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 51/73 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 96/143 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Jung Over 1.5 (+138) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.567 (24 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/92 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/42 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 18/50 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 42/92 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-172) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+117	-163	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.440 (40 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/105 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 35/51 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 68/105 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-204) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 1.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 1.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+137	-192	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.408 (64 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/140 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/72 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 43/68 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 88/140 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+132) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+123	-171	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.388 (60 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .445
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/136 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/72 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 61/136 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.60

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+142) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+126	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.326 (72 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/117 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 59/117 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Under 1.5 (-126) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+105	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.410 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/59 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 80/113 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+130) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.531 (18 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/96 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 39/96 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-181) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.312 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/127 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/65 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 41/62 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 83/127 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-104) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	-107	-128	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.445 (84 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/137 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/70 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 24/67 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 50/137 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-171) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	Recommended
DK	1.5	+129	-171	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+117	-163	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.317 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 89/138 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/69 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 39/69 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 89/138 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+135) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+124	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (74 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/125 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/67 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 56/125 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+121) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+123	-171	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.608 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 59/142 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/71 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 59/142 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.204 (39 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .686
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/148 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/75 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 31/73 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 63/148 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+138) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	-
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.440 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 18 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .653
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/107 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 43/107 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.46

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 (-165) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+121	-168	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (54 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 89/148 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/76 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 44/72 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 89/148 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-155) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+114	-158	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/95 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/50 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 30/45 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 58/95 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Under 1.5 (-160) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+107	-148	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.217 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/88 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/41 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 53/88 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-174) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+128	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.460 (87 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 96/147 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/72 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 49/75 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 96/147 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+110) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-145	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+107	-148	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.384 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/132 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/68 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 44/132 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.52

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Under 1.5 (-201) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+124	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.276 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 87/139 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/67 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 48/72 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 87/139 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-171) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	1.5	+135	-189	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.447 (72 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 96/147 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/74 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 46/73 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 96/147 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+141) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+141	-
MyBookie	0.5	-185	+132	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.336 (70 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 59/141 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 27/70 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 59/141 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.48

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-205) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected
MyBookie	1.5	+130	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.550 (17 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 91/141 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/71 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 49/70 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 91/141 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+119) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	1.5	+111	-154	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.242 (18 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 23 PA | 9/22 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/143 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/74 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 22/69 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 54/143 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.59

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Sean Murphy Over 0.5 (-105) diff 104.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-104	-129	-
MyBookie	0.5	-104	-133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 104.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.208 (12 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/12 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 4/11 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter TB: 12/23 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 104.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-115) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.62
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.555 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 28/81 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/39 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter TB: 15/42 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter TB: 28/81 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Pavin Smith Over 0.5 (+190) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/28 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/16 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 2/12 over 0.5 (17%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter TB: 9/28 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.6% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 (-107) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-107	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.12, BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.6% / under 48.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .845
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.6%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 22.2% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brady Singer Over 5.5 (+102) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.20 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.54, BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brady Singer: 131 PA | K% 22.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .248 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 24.1%, L7 23.4%, season 21.6%, top-6 24.1%, BVP 22.1%/131 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.1% (6/6); lineup K% 22.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gage Jump Under 5.5 (-155) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+115	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+117	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.54, BB% 10.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gage Jump: 31 PA | K% 29.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .345 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.0%, L7 22.2%, season 23.3%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 29.0%/31 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (6/6); lineup K% 22.1% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Newcomb Over 0.5 (+115) diff 160.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+115	-160	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.76 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 3.60)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 2.1 IP/GS; recent 2.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.9 IP; outs market 5.5 outs/1.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.0% / under 57.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Newcomb: 10 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .633
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 17.7%, L7 17.9%, season 20.6%, top-6 21.2%, BVP 30.0%/10 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.2% (6/6); lineup K% 21.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 14/53 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tim Mayza Over 0.5 (+115) diff 100.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.0 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 100.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.88 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 3.52, ERA 2.26)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 1.6 IP/GS; recent 1.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.5 IP; outs market 3.5 outs/1.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.0% / under 57.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tim Mayza: 33 PA | K% 6.1% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .267 | OPS .767
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 19.1%, L7 20.0%, season 21.6%, top-6 19.3%, BVP 6.1%/33 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.3% (6/6); lineup K% 22.6% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 13/54 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Singer Over 2.5 (-126) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.17 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 3.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	3.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	3.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.20 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.46, ERA 5.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.17 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brady Singer: 131 PA | K% 22.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .248 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 24.1%, L7 23.4%, season 21.6%, top-6 24.1%, BVP 22.1%/131 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.1% (6/6); lineup K% 22.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 (-165) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.59 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.85, ERA 3.17)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tyler Mahle: 121 PA | K% 19.0% | BB% 9.9% | AVG .267 | OPS .693
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.3%, L7 23.0%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 19.0%/121 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 19.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Under 2.5 (-119) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	-
DK	2.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.45 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.62, ERA 3.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 93 PA | K% 34.4% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .148 | OPS .387
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 18.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.5%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 34.4%/93 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (6/6); lineup K% 21.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.71 over 3.9 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 3.36)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 8.8 outs/2.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.0% / under 61.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 2.667
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 25.0%, L7 28.3%, season 24.0%, top-6 24.5% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.5% (6/6); lineup K% 24.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (-141) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.63 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kumar Rocker: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .650
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, split 16.2%, L7 19.6%, season 19.3%, top-6 17.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Pfaadt Over 2.5 (-126) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-126	-105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 3.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .845
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.6%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 22.2% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 7/26 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gage Jump Under 2.5 (-102) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	-
DK	2.5	-131	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 5.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gage Jump: 31 PA | K% 29.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .345 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.0%, L7 22.2%, season 23.3%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 29.0%/31 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (6/6); lineup K% 22.1% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tommy White Under 1.5 (-323) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -323 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -323 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.250)
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.171 (16 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 8/34 (24%) | L5 2/14 (14%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 34/43 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 19/23 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 15/20 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter Hits: 34/43 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.93

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 (-244) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -244

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+188	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+180	-244	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.95 (AVG 0.239)
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.309 (84 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Recent form: L10 8/42 (19%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/137 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 54/70 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 51/67 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 105/137 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Randy Arozarena Under 1.5 (-210) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+157	-210	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.280 (86 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/140 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 54/69 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 51/71 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 105/140 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-218) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -218 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -218

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -218 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+162	-218	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.23 (AVG 0.294)
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316 (52 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 17 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 52.9% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .485
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 20/48 (42%) | L5 12/24 (50%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/113 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/58 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 79/113 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-267) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+196	-267	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.26 (AVG 0.318)
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.323 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 12 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 13/37 (35%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/140 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/68 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter Hits: 49/72 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 86/140 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-115) edge 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 8 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -115

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 8 books | 8.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 8 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 8.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	8	-115	-	-
BetUS	8	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-120	-	-
Caesars	8	-115	-	-
DK	8	-115	-	Selected
Fanatics	8	-115	-	-
LowVig	8	-113	-	Recommended
MyBookie	8	-119	-	-
BetMGM	8.5	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	8.5	-113	-	-
FanDuel	8.5	-105	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.4 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 100 (team 99)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 103 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+135) edge 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +149 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +135

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +149 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 4.02
Bryan Woo xFIP 3.62
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 100)
Seattle Mariners confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ Batter HR — 89 play(s) (C 89)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 97.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0115
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.327 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 86/87 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/44 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/43 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 86/87 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 97.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0146
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.329 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 135/137 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 70/71 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 65/66 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 135/137 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.382 (11 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 42/42 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/22 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 20/20 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 42/42 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0403
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.259 (72 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 119/124 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/62 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 119/124 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pavin Smith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0357
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 27/28 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 15/16 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 12/12 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0364
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.202 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 12 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .962
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/110 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/56 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 106/110 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 91.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0385
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (39 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 75/78 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 38/38 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 75/78 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Frelick Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 91.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0396
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.280 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 17 PA | 5/17 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .765
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/101 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 97/101 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 91.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0429
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.403 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 12 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 134/140 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/68 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 68/72 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 134/140 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Juan Brito Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0476
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 20/21 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 10/11 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 10/10 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 20/21 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 90.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0513
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.089 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 74/78 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/40 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 36/38 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 74/78 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.300 (43 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 102/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0484
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.377 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 59/62 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0561
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 101/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0615
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 122/130 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/62 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 122/130 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0617
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.555 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 76/81 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/39 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 76/81 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0635
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (14 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 57/61 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/34 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0629
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.338 (73 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 134/143 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 69/70 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 65/73 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 134/143 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0709
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.353 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 131/141 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/70 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 64/71 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 131/141 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0630
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.312 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 119/127 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/65 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 119/127 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 85.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0725
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.317 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 130/138 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/69 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 130/138 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0786
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.408 (64 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 129/140 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/72 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 129/140 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0781
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.394 (58 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 119/128 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 119/128 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/112 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/112 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0759
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.274 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 73/79 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 37/37 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 73/79 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0779
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.334 (32 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 71/77 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/42 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 31/35 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 71/77 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0897
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.223 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/78 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 71/78 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.270 (11 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/110 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 100/110 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 82.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0758
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.527 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 122/132 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/70 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 122/132 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.380 (15 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 41/44 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/20 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 22/24 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0845
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.408 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 130/142 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/71 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 68/71 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 130/142 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0952
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.440 (40 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-750) diff 81.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.422 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 26 PA | 2/24 | HR 1 | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .362
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 126/140 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/70 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 68/70 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 126/140 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0886
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.637 (17 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 72/79 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/43 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 33/36 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 72/79 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0971
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.223 (56 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/103 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/103 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Jung Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0978
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.567 (24 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/92 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 83/92 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 80.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0986
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.608 (39 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 129/142 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/71 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 129/142 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1026
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.326 (72 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/117 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 105/117 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 79.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0993
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.336 (70 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 129/141 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 129/141 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1164
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.407 (66 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 131/146 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/74 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 66/72 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 131/146 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1088
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.460 (87 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 132/147 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 68/75 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 132/147 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.208 (12 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 20/23 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 10/12 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 10/11 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 20/23 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.440 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 18 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .653
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/107 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 96/107 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1064
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.550 (17 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 127/141 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 66/70 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 127/141 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1197
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.269 (27 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 127/142 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/74 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 127/142 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1088
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.447 (72 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 132/147 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/74 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 66/73 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 132/147 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1077
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 116/130 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 57/67 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 116/130 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1223
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.276 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 123/139 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 67/72 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 123/139 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1099
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (45 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/91 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 81/91 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-900) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1184
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.429 (25 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/76 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 67/76 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1282
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.356 (63 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .629 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/117 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 103/117 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.388 (60 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .445
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 120/136 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/72 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 120/136 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.8% / Under 85.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.259 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .562
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/95 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 82/95 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1329
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.242 (18 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 23 PA | 9/22 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 125/143 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/74 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 125/143 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1419
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (54 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 128/148 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/76 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 128/148 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1684
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/95 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 81/95 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-900) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1497
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.506 (77 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 127/147 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/73 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 61/74 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 127/147 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1408
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.531 (86 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 66.7% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 123/142 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/71 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 123/142 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1724
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.204 (11 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 25/29 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 14/17 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1314
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.503 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 19 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 15.8% | OPS 1.340
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 121/137 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/74 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 54/63 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 121/137 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 68.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1533
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.445 (84 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 117/137 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 60/67 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 117/137 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-600) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1571
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.385 (86 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 119/140 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 58/71 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 119/140 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1690
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.482 (85 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 120/142 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 120/142 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1591
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.384 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 113/132 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 53/64 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 113/132 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1753
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.429 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .450
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/97 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 80/97 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Teel Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 22/26 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 9/10 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 22/26 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1824
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.204 (39 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .686
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 122/148 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/75 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 60/73 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 122/148 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1840
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (74 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/125 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/67 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 103/125 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.531 (18 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/96 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 80/96 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 66.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1739
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.276 (87 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 116/138 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/69 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 60/69 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 116/138 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1849
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.299 (59 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/119 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 98/119 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1947
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.231 (65 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 2.314 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/113 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 92/113 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-650) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1932
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.217 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.762 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/88 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 36/47 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 71/88 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-900) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1844
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.512 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 117/141 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 58/74 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 117/141 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-700) diff 63.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1732
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.458 (59 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/127 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/63 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 106/127 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1926
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.358 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 111/135 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/67 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 111/135 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-370) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1858
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.410 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 94/113 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/113 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leonardo Bernal Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HR: 8/10 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-750) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2109
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (86 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 118/147 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/74 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 56/73 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 118/147 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1894
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.548 (34 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 21 PA | 1/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 38.1% | OPS .736
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 107/132 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 54/65 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 107/132 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2031
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.598 (45 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 103/128 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 52/64 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 103/128 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-700) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2035
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.506 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 17 PA | 3/16 | HR 0 | K% 52.9% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .485
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/113 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 93/113 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2473
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.482 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 12 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/93 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/43 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 73/93 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-750) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2069
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.663 (46 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 118/145 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/73 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 60/72 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 118/145 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-800) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2230
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.423 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 109/139 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/69 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 53/70 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 109/139 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2568
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.540 (74 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Tim Mayza contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Tim Mayza: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 113/148 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/76 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 53/72 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 113/148 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2692
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.820 (13 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/26 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter HR: 15/19 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-650) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2768
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.481 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/112 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 83/112 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-375) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3099
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.413 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 33 PA | 6/23 | HR 2 | K% 21.2% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .976
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 105/142 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/72 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter HR: 56/70 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 105/142 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-115	51.1%	68.5%	+17.4%	$+28.01	11	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (1 play(s))

C Over 8.0 — Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Total) +17.4%

[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.4 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 100 (team 99)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 103 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-140	54.8%	65.4%	+10.6%	$+12.13	6	Bet on DK
C	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	DK	+135	40.1%	48.4%	+8.3%	$+13.77	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

B Under 5.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +10.6%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 4.02
Bryan Woo xFIP 3.62
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 100)
Seattle Mariners confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)

C Athletics — Seattle Mariners @ Athletics (F5) (F5 ML) +8.3%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 4.02
Bryan Woo xFIP 3.62
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 100)
Seattle Mariners confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:11 PM · decision fi-9210f1ff619e418b

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.2%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -107

Raw Edge

-1.5%

Effective Edge

-1.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.8%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -108

Raw Edge

-2.1%

Effective Edge

-2.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Brady Singer · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Shane Drohan · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-11 · updated 2026-09-12T22:00:10.884761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Brady Singer / Shane Drohan announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBrady Singer / Shane Drohan announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-123	-108	51.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-107	-125	48.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-115	49.8%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-1501bcc75f646a68

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.6%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -118

Raw Edge

-4.5%

Effective Edge

-5.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.4%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -101

Raw Edge

+0.1%

Effective Edge

-0.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Tim Mayza · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tyler Mahle · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-11 · updated 2026-09-12T22:00:10.884761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.496
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Tim Mayza / Tyler Mahle announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.496

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTim Mayza / Tyler Mahle announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-132	-101	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-118	-112	50.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

7:16 PM · decision fi-274653ed65665ea8

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.0%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -111

Raw Edge

-2.6%

Effective Edge

-3.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.0%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -103

Raw Edge

-0.8%

Effective Edge

-1.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Sean Newcomb · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kyle Leahy · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-11 · updated 2026-09-12T22:00:10.884761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.500
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sean Newcomb / Kyle Leahy announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.500

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSean Newcomb / Kyle Leahy announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-118	-110	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-130	-103	52.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

8:11 PM · decision fi-a022ed1ecd488a63

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -102

Raw Edge

-1.0%

Effective Edge

-1.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -105

Raw Edge

-0.7%

Effective Edge

-1.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Kumar Rocker · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brandon Pfaadt · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-11 · updated 2026-09-12T22:00:10.884761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.495
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Kumar Rocker / Brandon Pfaadt announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.495

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKumar Rocker / Brandon Pfaadt announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-117	-114	50.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Seattle Mariners @ Athletics

9:41 PM · decision fi-1d066fbc1a747130

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -102

Raw Edge

-0.0%

Effective Edge

-1.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-3.5%

Effective Edge

-4.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Bryan Woo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Gage Jump · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-11 · updated 2026-09-12T22:00:10.884761Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Bryan Woo / Gage Jump announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBryan Woo / Gage Jump announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-112	-118	49.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 89 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=89
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	3	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	41.2%	20.8%	+20.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	1	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	40.2%	17.9%	+22.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	1	Tyler Mahle (R)	theScore Bet	+230	-	38.2%	27.7%	+10.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	2	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	35.6%	15.0%	+20.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	4	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	35.3%	18.8%	+16.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	2	Shane Drohan (L)	theScore Bet	+475	-	34.6%	16.4%	+18.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	5	Kumar Rocker (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	32.8%	16.4%	+16.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corey Seager	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	2	Brandon Pfaadt (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	31.6%	18.8%	+12.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	3	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	31.6%	17.1%	+14.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	2	Kumar Rocker (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	31.4%	17.9%	+13.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nolan Arenado	Arizona Diamondbacks	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	6	Kumar Rocker (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	29.6%	15.3%	+14.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	7	Brandon Pfaadt (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	29.5%	15.6%	+13.9%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	8	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	29.0%	16.4%	+12.6%	96	-
Best HR Chance	Shea Langeliers	Athletics	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	9:41 PM	4	Bryan Woo (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	28.1%	20.8%	+7.3%	94	-
Strong HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	3	Tim Mayza (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	28.1%	18.8%	+9.3%	94	-
Best HR Chance	Joc Pederson	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	1	Brandon Pfaadt (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	27.3%	17.9%	+9.5%	91	-
Strong HR Chance	Eugenio Suarez	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	-	Shane Drohan (L)	theScore Bet	+475	-	26.2%	16.4%	+9.8%	87	-
Best HR Chance	Christian Yelich	Milwaukee Brewers	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	4	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	26.0%	14.3%	+11.7%	87	-
Best HR Chance	William Contreras	Milwaukee Brewers	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	5	Brady Singer (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	26.0%	15.0%	+11.1%	87	-
Best HR Chance	Dominic Canzone	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	9:41 PM	3	Gage Jump (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	25.9%	17.1%	+8.8%	86	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	91.0%	-1011	Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Bryce Harper	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	100	89.3%	-833	Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Elly De La Cruz	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| Wind 11 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	89.1%	-819	Shea Langeliers, Dominic Canzone, Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 \| Wind 14 mph OUT (SW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.9%	-
Watchlist	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	100	85.7%	-599	Corbin Carroll, Corey Seager, Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	100	85.5%	-589	Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Joshua Baez	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Jake Bauers — Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (+350) HR chance 41.2% | edge +20.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.189, OPS 0.890, ISO 0.225, TB/G 1.63
Statcast: barrel 13.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.5/114.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.479
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 25/132 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0429, xFIP 4.46, K% 18.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.348, xERA 5.23, whiff 23.7%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.736, K% 28.6% (21 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.047, OPS 0.883, ISO 0.215 (381 PA)

Best HR Chance Jackson Chourio — Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (+425) HR chance 40.2% | edge +22.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.203, OPS 0.848, ISO 0.204, TB/G 2.08
Statcast: barrel 12.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.7/113.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.477
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 20/113 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0429, xFIP 4.46, K% 18.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.348, xERA 5.23, whiff 23.7%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.485, K% 52.9% (17 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.044, OPS 0.811, ISO 0.195 (361 PA)

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (+230) HR chance 38.2% | edge +10.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.310, OPS 0.874, ISO 0.284, TB/G 1.96
Statcast: barrel 16.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.4/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.500
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/142 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0302, xFIP 3.85, K% 22.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.312, xERA 4.10, whiff 22.9%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 0.976, K% 21.2% (33 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.074, OPS 0.855, ISO 0.296 (405 PA)

Best HR Chance Brice Turang — Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (+525) HR chance 35.6% | edge +20.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.131, OPS 0.795, ISO 0.175, TB/G 1.69
Statcast: barrel 7.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/109.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.425
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 16/137 (12%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0429, xFIP 4.46, K% 18.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.348, xERA 5.23, whiff 23.7%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.340, K% 21.1% (19 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.037, OPS 0.879, ISO 0.214 (435 PA)

Best HR Chance Munetaka Murakami — Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals (+400) HR chance 35.3% | edge +16.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.277, OPS 0.819, ISO 0.267, TB/G 1.70
Statcast: barrel 19.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.8/114.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.455
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 29/112 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0247, xFIP 3.66, K% 22.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.337, xERA 4.86, whiff 22.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.073, OPS 0.869, ISO 0.300 (342 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.481, xwOBA 0.339 (47 PA)

Best HR Chance Elly De La Cruz — Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (+475) HR chance 34.6% | edge +18.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.203, OPS 0.869, ISO 0.226, TB/G 2.00
Statcast: barrel 15.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.5/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.499
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 25/128 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0245, xFIP 3.90, K% 23.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.297, xERA 3.69, whiff 27.1%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.000, K% 25.0% (8 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.061, OPS 1.074, ISO 0.307 (163 PA)

Best HR Chance Corbin Carroll — Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+475) HR chance 32.8% | edge +16.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.141, OPS 0.803, ISO 0.230, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.7/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.446
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 19/142 (13%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0347, xFIP 4.30, K% 21.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.329, xERA 4.61, whiff 26.0%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.034, OPS 0.731, ISO 0.223 (414 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.531, xwOBA 0.383 (86 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Corey Seager — Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+400) HR chance 31.6% | edge +12.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.193, OPS 0.743, ISO 0.200, TB/G 1.57
Statcast: barrel 15.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.6/110.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.478
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 17/88 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0258, xFIP 4.43, K% 16.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.300, xERA 3.77, whiff 21.5%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.762, K% 14.3% (7 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.217, xwOBA 0.184 (27 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Justin Crawford	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+1400	0.5%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Nicky Lopez	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	+1600	0.7%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+900	0.7%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Jose Fermin	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+900	1.2%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+1200	1.2%	Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Alika Williams	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	9:41 PM	+1100	1.2%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Juan Brito	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	+900	1.3%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Low season HR rate \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (9 PA)
Pavin Smith	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	+600	1.3%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (6 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Josh Naylor	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	9:41 PM	+600	1.4%	Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nathan Church	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+1200	1.5%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	Kyle Leahy	Sean Newcomb	0.93	14.5%	42.5%	9.5%	+5.0%
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	Brandon Pfaadt	Kumar Rocker	1.02	14.3%	42.1%	7.8%	+6.5%
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Gage Jump	Bryan Woo	1.00	10.9%	35.0%	5.8%	+5.1%
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	Shane Drohan	Brady Singer	1.08	10.7%	34.7%	8.0%	+2.7%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Tyler Mahle	Tim Mayza	1.03	9.0%	30.7%	8.0%	+1.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Daniel Espino	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	89.6	97.9	90.0	3	4-Seam Fastball (47% whiff, 62% usage)	Savant whiff 40.4%, put-away 33.4%, xwOBA 0.235, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins	70.3	69.8	81.0	4	Curveball (51% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.253, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	62.7	60.0	67.5	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cesar Perdomo	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	60.3	65.0	70.0	3	4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 46% usage)	Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	59.5	61.9	60.0	7	Changeup (39% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals	59.3	56.6	64.5	4	Sweeper (36% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Andrew Sears	Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies	58.5	52.1	67.5	4	Changeup (54% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	57.4	57.2	59.0	6	Slider (40% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tim Mayza	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	56.8	50.5	66.0	4	Slider (28% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	55.7	53.0	59.5	7	Changeup (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Spencer Miles	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	55.7	40.2	74.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	55.2	52.1	61.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	53.5	49.9	59.5	6	Slider (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	51.6	52.0	51.0	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	51.4	46.0	58.5	6	Curveball (38% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Newcomb	Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals	51.0	48.9	55.0	6	Slurve (29% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	50.9	51.6	51.5	5	Split-Finger (27% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	49.4	42.1	57.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	49.4	54.0	44.5	6	Slider (28% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels	48.8	53.3	47.0	5	Slider (35% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	48.8	54.6	43.0	6	Slider (42% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	48.6	48.3	48.5	4	Curveball (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	48.2	53.2	43.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	47.6	50.4	47.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers	46.8	45.2	46.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 43% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	46.2	42.6	52.0	6	Cutter (39% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox	42.2	47.6	39.0	6	Changeup (32% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	41.6	47.6	33.5	5	Sweeper (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	41.0	39.1	42.0	7	Sweeper (25% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	39.2	37.9	40.0	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	R	16.8%	6.1	6.0	6.0	102	deep	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	L	23.2%	4.7	5.1	5.0	79	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	22.5%	5.9	5.4	5.5	99	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	19.8%	4.3	5.4	5.2	72	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	L	20.2%	5.8	5.2	5.3	97	normal	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	18.5%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Newcomb	Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	19.3%	2.1	2.1	3.9	35	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.1 IP/start
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	17.3%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Daniel Espino	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	R	30.4%	1.4	-	4.9	24	short	full	90.00	10.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers	R	17.9%	5.1	5.0	5.1	86	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Andrew Sears	Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies	L	20.2%	3.9	5.7	5.4	65	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.4%	4.9	5.6	5.5	82	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	R	18.1%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals	R	23.0%	5.8	5.4	6.0	97	normal	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins	R	29.8%	4.6	5.8	5.5	77	short	full	81.00	19.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	20.8%	3.9	4.6	4.5	65	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	23.6%	4.2	5.2	5.0	70	short	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	L	23.7%	5.0	5.2	5.2	84	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	L	20.6%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	R	23.4%	5.6	5.8	6.0	94	normal	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tim Mayza	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	L	22.8%	1.0	1.6	3.5	17	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	24.3%	5.3	5.3	5.3	89	normal	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	R	20.4%	6.3	5.8	5.9	106	deep	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cesar Perdomo	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	L	20.9%	4.7	6.0	5.6	79	short	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	R	26.1%	5.8	5.8	6.0	97	normal	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox	R	25.2%	3.8	4.9	4.7	64	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	L	29.3%	5.1	4.7	4.8	86	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.4%	4.6	4.9	4.8	77	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Spencer Miles	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	R	30.6%	1.4	2.8	3.5	24	short	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels	L	24.3%	5.3	4.9	5.0	89	normal	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

2/2 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Brandon Pfaadt	Brandon Pfaadt Over	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Over	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	17.5	18.2	0.7	3.9%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

77 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Leonardo Bernal	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	3.37	1.81	0.75	0.82	3.19 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Brice Turang	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.77	1.12	0.90	0.76	2.85 / Over	0.30	season_games=137,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.74	1.21	0.94	0.59	2.57 / Over	0.30	season_games=128,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Joshua Baez	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.69	1.44	0.59	0.65	2.49 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Alec Burleson	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.64	1.14	0.63	0.87	2.49 / Over	0.30	season_games=147,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.63	1.08	0.64	0.92	2.29 / Over	0.30	season_games=147,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Drake Baldwin	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.58	1.19	0.78	0.60	2.13 / Over	0.30	season_games=125,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Shea Langeliers	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.53	1.09	0.72	0.73	2.01 / Over	0.35	season_games=93,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Jake Bauers	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.52	0.96	0.74	0.83	2.39 / Over	0.30	season_games=132,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
William Contreras	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.52	1.08	0.64	0.80	2.36 / Over	0.30	season_games=136,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.46	0.99	0.79	0.68	2.29 / Over	0.30	season_games=142,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Gabriel Moreno	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.42	1.16	0.55	0.72	2.31 / Over	0.30	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.41	0.98	0.73	0.69	2.43 / Over	0.30	season_games=145,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Matt Olson	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.38	1.00	0.71	0.67	2.14 / Over	0.30	season_games=148,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.33	1.01	0.65	0.68	1.99 / Over	0.30	season_games=148,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.32	1.31	0.51	0.50	2.24 / Over	0.30	season_games=140,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ketel Marte	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.31	1.09	0.66	0.57	2.33 / Over	0.30	season_games=127,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ivan Herrera	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.31	1.27	0.57	0.47	2.09 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jordan Walker	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.30	1.08	0.60	0.61	2.29 / Over	0.30	season_games=144,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Trea Turner	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.28	1.06	0.81	0.40	2.01 / Over	0.30	season_games=143,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Christian Yelich	Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.27	0.95	0.67	0.66	2.16 / Over	0.30	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Michael Harris II	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.22	1.06	0.50	0.65	2.03 / Over	0.30	season_games=142,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.21	0.78	0.72	0.71	2.14 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Josh Jung	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.15	1.19	0.52	0.43	2.08 / Over	0.30	season_games=92,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Sam Antonacci	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.14	1.02	0.73	0.38	1.97 / Over	0.30	season_games=127,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.